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View Full Version : Red Sox get Chris Sale from White Sox for Yoan Moncada , Mike Kopach, etc



redsox12
12-06-2016, 02:22 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/red-sox-to-acquire-chris-sale.html




Im so happy !

bosox1899
12-06-2016, 02:32 PM
I know he's good but is he really worth that much? I just can't understand trading two top prospects and 2 others for one guy. I guess I put more value in quantity over quality

Pittz
12-06-2016, 02:34 PM
Assuming no more moves (clearly not a great assumption to make with DD in charge...), what's the rotation?

Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, ERod, Buchholz, Wright...

I see Buchholz and Wright as the odd men out (for the rotation I would like to see at least). Trade or BP?

DaSox_05
12-06-2016, 02:42 PM
.


806204471013425152

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/806204471013425152

bosox1899
12-06-2016, 02:44 PM
Assuming no more moves (clearly not a great assumption to make with DD in charge...), what's the rotation?

Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, ERod, Buchholz, Wright...

I see Buchholz and Wright as the odd men out (for the rotation I would like to see at least). Trade or BP?

Depending on which buchholz shows up, i'd prefer him over pomeranz in the starting rotation

CeltBruinSoxFan
12-06-2016, 02:52 PM
WOW! That came out of nowhere. I just hope we acquired pre-AS break Sale and not post-AS break Sale.

Prospects sometimes never pan out, especially ours. Where are the specs we traded to SD for A-Gon? It hurts to lose two really, really good prospects, but the odds of them finding success with us within the next 4 years was probably slim.

I can see us trading either Pomeranz, Erod or Buch to put a couple more specs in our systems again. Devers better not go anywhere any time soon now.

MiamiBoy77
12-06-2016, 02:53 PM
I think this turns Pomeranz into our lefty guy out of the pen. Wright/Buchholz will fight it out for the 5th spot, with 1 likely starting the season on the DL.

Pittz
12-06-2016, 03:05 PM
Trading or putting Pomeranz in the BP = pulling the plug on that deal too soon, in my opinion. We need to know what Pomeranz is capable of as a starter.

redsox12
12-06-2016, 03:10 PM
Prospects sometimes never pan out, especially ours. Where are the specs we traded to SD for A-Gon?


Rizzo turned out to be good.

Anyways I love this trade, we have plenty of depth at 3rd, panda or Holt, or.....maybe Justin Turner

C Leon
1B HanRam
2B Peddy
SS Xander
3B Turner
LF Andrew B
CF Bradley Jr.
RF Mookie
DH Panda

Sale
Price
Porcello
E Rod
Wright/Pom/Bucholtz

Kimbrel
Holland?
Smith

money

SoxFan0407
12-06-2016, 03:26 PM
I love it. DD doesn't have the luxury of waiting for prospects to become viable major leaguers in Boston. Cherington got pushed aside for his unwillingness to deal talent (xman, betts, JBJ, vazquez...) and make moves, but I ask you if he had where would we be? Certainly not winning the division last year. DD just sent top of the line, unproven prospects who may take 2-4 years to develop and got another #1 type pitcher who will cost us relatively little ($13m per in comparison to Price's contract at $31m per and EVEN less than Buchholz...) for three years and helps us win right now. This trade, while holding onto Bennitendi, was the best case scenario by far especially now that Devers is in position to take hold of 3B when Sandovals becomes uselss again.

My vote would be for Pomeranz to head to the bullpen. Thats how he would best serve the team right now (unless another move is made involving Wright or Buchholz). I can see them using him in the same fashion andrew miller has been used - multiple dominant innings.

Kimbrel
Thornburg
Smith
Kelly
Barnes
Uehara (Sign him back!!)
Pomeranz
Layne/Abad/Ross Jr

AI
12-06-2016, 03:40 PM
This post over at SP's sums up my thoughts to perfection...


Each trade can make sense on its own and collectively be all wrong.

The trade in isolation isn't terrible or unfair in anyway. That said, DD has come in and viewed a beautiful farm system pretty much as a means of acquiring current talent at premium costs. Its safe to say this farm system is pretty much gutted right now, or at the very least is a bottom third percentile system. There is very little left (aside from Devers and maybe Groome) in the system that looks like impact talent at a minimum salary in the next 3 years or so. This is simply not a sustainable model in my opinion.

I get that farm systems can change quickly, and that we could potentially restock this system with 1-2 big trades, but nothing in DD's past suggests to me that will happen. He is all onboard with the 3 or 4 for 1 trades and has shown little to no care for the team's projection outside of a 2 year window. I don't love this approach, in fact, I kind of hate it.....but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't really excited about this team's chances next year.

RedSoxtober
12-06-2016, 03:42 PM
I see Buchholz and Wright as the odd men out (for the rotation I would like to see at least). Trade or BP?
Trade. Buchholz will get move for the money. Sox get a net savings of $1M. As weak as the market it, they may be able to do even more than that (e.g., maybe move even more salary).


Prospects sometimes never pan out, especially ours. Where are the specs we traded to SD for A-Gon? It hurts to lose two really, really good prospects, but the odds of them finding success with us within the next 4 years was probably slim.
First, you're not comparing apples to apples. We had a relatively crappy farm system when we sent four prospects for A-Gon. Lately we've had one of the best in the game. These are guys who already have national reputations that (almost) match the hype around here. Moncada is the #1 prospect in baseball. The last guy we had with a reputation like that is currently playing shortstop and has tons of people begging for him to be locked up until he dies.

Second, Moncada is likely to have an impact before the end of 2017. Kopech? He could be the same... at least with a contender. It would not be a surprise to see him debut from the BP to get a taste of MLB while limiting his innings. I would have put BOTH on track to be on the 25 man roster within 2 years. You're just wrong on the 4yr plan.

Third, if we hadn't traded Rizzo (the answer main to your question) then we likely would not have signed either HanRam or Panda -- maybe both -- because we would have had the production from within. Rizzo is on a cheap deal for the kind of production he's giving. Fuentes had fair success as a reserve OF with KCR this year. Kelly might get on track at age 26 now that he's gotten to a club with a reputation for developing pitchers.

xnick5757
12-06-2016, 03:48 PM
This post over at SP's sums up my thoughts to perfection...


i disagree with the "2 year window part"

sale - 27
mookie - 24
bradley - 26
xander - 24
beinintendi - 22
porcello - 27
pomeranz - 28


the core pieces of this team are all well on the right side of 30

xnick5757
12-06-2016, 03:54 PM
and this via dave cameron:

"If Sale hit the open market right now and said he’d only sign a three year deal to mitigate a team’s long-term risk, the bidding would probably start at $125 million, and I wouldn’t be shocked if someone ended up at $140 or $150 million. Sale has something like $100 million in surplus value, and if you weight present value over long-term value, it’s easy to argue that he’s worth more than any prospect in baseball."

"But the Red Sox already had the best young core of position players in the American League. They have a star young right fielder, a star young shortstop, and really good pieces around those guys. And now they have maybe the two best left-handed pitchers in the American League. This roster is beastly."

redsox12
12-06-2016, 03:56 PM
i disagree with the "2 year window part"

sale - 27
mookie - 24
bradley - 26
xander - 24
beinintendi - 22
porcello - 27
pomeranz - 28


the core pieces of this team are all well on the right side of 30

That's what I don't get why some are unhappy with this trade, we are looking really good for the next few years, Moncada was just icing on the cake compared to what we already have.

WOwolfOL
12-06-2016, 04:00 PM
Is Soler+ for Pomeranz or Rodriguez appetizing for you guys?

homie564
12-06-2016, 04:03 PM
I personally saw Kopech as Daniel Bard 2.0... I absolutely love this deal. Hindsight is 20/20, maybe moncada will be a stud...or maybe his K rate will continue to rise and we have another Lars Anderson


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homie564
12-06-2016, 04:05 PM
Is Soler+ for Pomeranz or Rodriguez appetizing for you guys?

I'd do that for Pomeranz all day. We could probably use another good OF prospect. That's our only real hole down the line.


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redsox12
12-06-2016, 04:06 PM
I'd do that for Pomeranz all day. We could probably use another good OF prospect. That's our only real hole down the line.


and where would Soler play? Can we flip him to KC for Davis?

RedSoxtober
12-06-2016, 04:12 PM
I love it. DD doesn't have the luxury of waiting for prospects to become viable major leaguers in Boston. Cherington got pushed aside for his unwillingness to deal talent (xman, betts, JBJ, vazquez...) and make moves, but I ask you if he had where would we be?
This doesn't really make sense. The guys that you said that he was unwilling to deal ARE THE REASON FOR THEIR SUCCESS. How exactly was Cherginton wrong for waiting?


Certainly not winning the division last year. DD just sent top of the line, unproven prospects who may take 2-4 years to develop and got another #1 type pitcher who will cost us relatively little ($13m per in comparison to Price's contract at $31m per and EVEN less than Buchholz...) for three years and helps us win right now.
This is a little more interesting but also kinda confused. You're mixing together winning the division with what MIGHT happen next year. So let's separate the two. Last year's moves were to sign Price to a mega contract, sign Chris Young, and trade for Kimbrel. The latter had his worst season and stumbled pretty badly at times. As a CL he proved incapable of doing anything besides shutting down a clean ninth inning... a pattern that holds true to his career. Meh, that's arguably a help. Signing Price is precisely something that Cherington WOULD have done -- particularly if your argument is for BC protecting prospects at all costs; he would pay market rate for a performer IN ORDER to protect the guys and HanRam/Panda are proof of it.

Pomeranz had several good outings but his overall line was below league average once he came to BOS. Ziegler had several losses charged directly to his account. Meh, the DD track record is not that great in terms of guys who made a major impact on winning the division. Most of those guys were BC guys or before: Leon/Swihart/Hanigan/Vazquez, HanRam, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ortiz, EdRo, Wright,
...



This trade, while holding onto Bennitendi, was the best case scenario by far especially now that Devers is in position to take hold of 3B when Sandovals becomes uselss again.

My vote would be for Pomeranz to head to the bullpen. Thats how he would best serve the team right now (unless another move is made involving Wright or Buchholz). I can see them using him in the same fashion andrew miller has been used - multiple dominant innings.

Pomeranz to the pen. Isn't that kinda schizophrenic to laud DD for his moves while sending his key prospect-for-production acquisition to the BP.

homie564
12-06-2016, 04:13 PM
and where would Soler play? Can we flip him to KC for Davis?

Bradley insurance in case he regresses and if he doesn't then he's another piece


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The Allen
12-06-2016, 04:20 PM
I would not want Soler whatsoever unless it was him for Clay straight up.

-Lavigne43-
12-06-2016, 04:22 PM
Wow. Dombrowski being Dombrowski. Honestly this cost less than I thought. Pray that Sale does not get injured or wear down enormously.

AI
12-06-2016, 04:27 PM
This forum makes my head hurt sometimes. People bash Cherington for not wanting to trade prospects for wins (Betts, Xander, JBJ, etc) yet the prospects he decided to keep are the reason our team is successful right now? You guys just want to make splash after splash for the shiny new toys (Sale) with no regard to how it will affect our team going forward.

If you were to build a business, would you rather sustained/gradual success for a long period of time or to make it big 1 year only to file for bankrupcy the following year? This is exactly the type of model we are following.

AI
12-06-2016, 04:29 PM
And why would we trade Pomeranz, after trading Espinoza for him, for Soler when we already have 4 OF's on the 25-man roster? Makes no sense.

win red sox
12-06-2016, 04:44 PM
Still think we need a RHB for 3b, Profar would be interesting.

homie564
12-06-2016, 04:52 PM
And why would we trade Pomeranz, after trading Espinoza for him, for Soler when we already have 4 OF's on the 25-man roster? Makes no sense.

I think Pomeranz was a mistake.. I'm definitely willing to give him a chance though to prove me wrong.

I also think Espinoza, and Kopech were overrated pieces. Hasn't Espinoza struggled mightily in A ball? And Kopech just screams Bard to me. I think he could be a solid starting pitcher or very good reliever for a short period of time then will tail off into nothingness... the early PED thing scares the crap out of me too


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AI
12-06-2016, 05:00 PM
I'm failing to see where you are coming up with this Kopech/Bard comparison. And Espinoza struggled? If by struggled you mean his ERA isn't sexy then you are mistaken, he is still an elite pitching prospect with pluss stuff and extemely young.

Pittz
12-06-2016, 05:00 PM
I'd do that for Pomeranz all day. We could probably use another good OF prospect. That's our only real hole down the line.


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There's just so much wrong with this.

BSF101
12-06-2016, 05:03 PM
I like the deal but lets not forget we also thought Price was the
savior last yr and how did that turn out? Again like the trade but
until I see some wins from Sale I'll be convinced.

homie564
12-06-2016, 05:14 PM
I'm failing to see where you are coming up with this Kopech/Bard comparison. And Espinoza struggled? If by struggled you mean his ERA isn't sexy then you are mistaken, he is still an elite pitching prospect with pluss stuff and extemely young.

I'm not saying so much stylistically as the situation. Hard throwing guy who people get really hyped about then realize he's probably not a long term solution. I also asked if Espinoza struggled, I didn't look it up, but I just remember someone telling me he did.


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homie564
12-06-2016, 05:15 PM
There's just so much wrong with this.

Why? I think we might see regression out of Bradley this year... it would hurt to get another good OF prospect?


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AI
12-06-2016, 05:29 PM
Besides the awesome hair, I see many similarities between Kopech and Syndengaard and I hope this doesn't come back to haunt us. The Pomeranz trade which was baffling at the time, looks even worse now that it appears thag we've relinquished him to the bullpen.

homie564
12-06-2016, 06:11 PM
Besides the awesome hair, I see many similarities between Kopech and Syndengaard and I hope this doesn't come back to haunt us. The Pomeranz trade which was baffling at the time, looks even worse now that it appears thag we've relinquished him to the bullpen.

I agree on the Pomeranz part. You want to use this trade as a springboard to criticize that one, sure, I had mixed feelings on it at the time and now it makes no sense... however I think this trade is a win for us


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homie564
12-06-2016, 06:24 PM
Although, Smith Thornburg Pomeranz Kimbrel is pretty studly... at least on paper


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AI
12-06-2016, 06:30 PM
If we go by what Farrell and DD just said in the press conference, our rotation will be:

Chris Sale
David Price
Rick Porcello
Eduardo Rodriguez
Drew Pomeranz

SP depth/trade bait:
Steven Wright
Clay Buchholz
Henry Owens
Brian Johnson
Roenis Elias

trentman1155
12-06-2016, 07:00 PM
Here's what I got guys many of you will disagree but this is what needs to happen next, maybe Chris Carter for DH one year deal or a backup 3B who can DH, maybe a veteran guy. sign Greg Holland pen depth, look into signing Tyson Ross, Derek Holland on a flyer type deal. Trade Clay,Wright,Owens,Johnson,Elias,Pom for depth in infield maybe vet LF. I also think we need to bring back some Vets to the pen so I would like to see us sign Koji or Ziegler or someone else maybe that I can't think of. Get rid of Abad hate the dude with passion. Umm that's all far fetched but can see happening.

trentman1155
12-06-2016, 07:02 PM
Nvm just signed Moreland ok revising my plan

redsox12
12-06-2016, 07:15 PM
For all the hate on Pomeranz , it sounds just like the hate Porcello was getting this time last year.

Pittz
12-06-2016, 07:18 PM
If we go by what Farrell and DD just said in the press conference, our rotation will be:

Chris Sale
David Price
Rick Porcello
Eduardo Rodriguez
Drew Pomeranz

SP depth/trade bait:
Steven Wright
Clay Buchholz
Henry Owens
Brian Johnson
Roenis Elias

Good, good. That's reassuring at least, I think it's the right rotation.

-Lavigne43-
12-06-2016, 07:19 PM
In isolation this trade is fine. Sale is tremendous, my only worry with him is injury and longevity. As a whole, Dombrowski has mismanaged the roster which is why we now have 7 SP's and a terrible farm system.

AI
12-06-2016, 07:28 PM
In isolation this trade is fine. Sale is tremendous, my only worry with him is injury and longevity. As a whole, Dombrowski has mismanaged the roster which is why we now have 7 SP's and a terrible farm system.

Exactly my point.

redsox12
12-06-2016, 07:35 PM
In isolation this trade is fine. Sale is tremendous, my only worry with him is injury and longevity. As a whole, Dombrowski has mismanaged the roster which is why we now have 7 SP's and a terrible farm system.

Dave didn't know until Friday he even had a shot at Sale, otherwise we wouldn't have signed Bucholtz.

AI
12-06-2016, 07:41 PM
Dave didn't know until Friday he even had a shot at Sale, otherwise we wouldn't have signed Bucholtz.

He didn't know? That's horseshit... They've been talking Sale for over a year.

xnick5757
12-06-2016, 07:43 PM
In isolation this trade is fine. Sale is tremendous, my only worry with him is injury and longevity. As a whole, Dombrowski has mismanaged the roster which is why we now have 7 SP's and a terrible farm system.

we have a terrible farm system because three of our former top prospects are on the roster lol

(xander/beinintendi/mookie)

homie564
12-06-2016, 07:43 PM
If we go by what Farrell and DD just said in the press conference, our rotation will be:

Chris Sale
David Price
Rick Porcello
Eduardo Rodriguez
Drew Pomeranz

SP depth/trade bait:
Steven Wright
Clay Buchholz
Henry Owens
Brian Johnson
Roenis Elias

Steven Wright better not get traded. He's great insurance for when someone gets hurt. I also don't like the whole 4 lefties thing going on but I guess that's the last of the worries. ERod appears to be trade bait too imo if we can get a legit piece back. I don't want to trade him but I guess it would make sense if you can throw him and Buchholz or Owens in a deal to get a slugger or throw in Swihart for an upgrade at catcher (meh would have to be a huge upgrade or a catcher with a big upside, I like Swihart)... I don't think he's the odd man out per se but I think he makes some sense to deal if the right trade comes along. Would've preferred to trade him over Kopech I suppose though


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redsox12
12-06-2016, 07:56 PM
He didn't know? That's horseshit... They've been talking Sale for over a year.

The price was what we gave up, plus Benintendi. After the new CBA, the White Sox became more motivated to get a deal done and came off Benintendi

AI
12-06-2016, 08:02 PM
I wouldn't trade E-Rod. I'd trade Pomeranz, Wright or Clay before him. Still young and his upside is still pretty high. We just need him to stay healthy and figure it out. As of right now, Clay and Wright (but mainly Clay) look like trade bait.

homie564
12-06-2016, 08:06 PM
I wouldn't trade E-Rod. I'd trade Pomeranz, Wright or Clay before him. Still young and his upside is still pretty high. We just need him to stay healthy and figure it out. As of right now, Clay and Wright (but mainly Clay) look like trade bait.

I agree 100% I think Erod could be a stud. But I think he's the most valuable of all of those guys right now which is why I said he makes some sense. You're not going to get the value that Wright will provide you via trade. No one is going to give up much for him and he was really a stud for us earlier this year before the injury. If he can give us 75% of what he did pre injury last year he's going to be way more valuable than anything you would've gotten via trade


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trentman1155
12-06-2016, 08:11 PM
Let's go get Wade Davis now! Source says says should be on the move soon...

Soxfan85
12-06-2016, 08:12 PM
My rotation

1. Sale.

2. Porcello

3. Wright

4. Buch

5. E-Rod

Pom to the Pen

homie564
12-06-2016, 08:19 PM
My rotation

1. Sale.

2. Porcello

3. Wright

4. Price

5. E-Rod

Pom & Clay to the Pen

Price?


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AI
12-06-2016, 08:25 PM
Price?

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Dombrowski was trigger happy and traded him, obviously.

Green_Monster
12-06-2016, 09:17 PM
Sale
Porcello
Price
Wright
Rodriguez

Would be my rotation. Wright should be given a chance with how dominant he was before Farrell decided to pinch-run him like an idiot. Pomeranz goes in the pen and can start if Wright or Rodriguez are ineffective. Buchholz is traded, goodbye to him.

SoxFan0407
12-06-2016, 09:40 PM
This doesn't really make sense. The guys that you said that he was unwilling to deal ARE THE REASON FOR THEIR SUCCESS. How exactly was Cherginton wrong for waiting?

This is a little more interesting but also kinda confused. You're mixing together winning the division with what MIGHT happen next year. So let's separate the two. Last year's moves were to sign Price to a mega contract, sign Chris Young, and trade for Kimbrel. The latter had his worst season and stumbled pretty badly at times. As a CL he proved incapable of doing anything besides shutting down a clean ninth inning... a pattern that holds true to his career. Meh, that's arguably a help. Signing Price is precisely something that Cherington WOULD have done -- particularly if your argument is for BC protecting prospects at all costs; he would pay market rate for a performer IN ORDER to protect the guys and HanRam/Panda are proof of it.

Pomeranz had several good outings but his overall line was below league average once he came to BOS. Ziegler had several losses charged directly to his account. Meh, the DD track record is not that great in terms of guys who made a major impact on winning the division. Most of those guys were BC guys or before: Leon/Swihart/Hanigan/Vazquez, HanRam, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Ortiz, EdRo, Wright,
...

We are saying the same things here. In my post, I intended to highlight the fact that Cherington was reluctant to trade away his core prospects. If he HAD traded away the prospects (which I mentioned in my post) our team wouldn't have won the division this year. I agree that Cherington would have preferred to spend money rather than deal from the farm. A move that set them up for success, and also got him sent packing. DD completely benefitted from Cheringtons tenure and is now capitalizing on it for proven, young veterans who are cost effective (minus Price) and under team control for a long time.

This deal, on it's own and regardless of previous track record, was as close to the minimum possible prospect package they could have possibly HOPED to send to the ChiSox and it will only cost the sox roughly $13 mil a year. If you believe paying one of the best pitchers in baseball $13 million a year right now in this market isn't a crazy steal you're obviously disconnected.



Pomeranz to the pen. Isn't that kinda schizophrenic to laud DD for his moves while sending his key prospect-for-production acquisition to the BP.

At what point did I say DD trading Espinoza for Pomeranz was a great deal? Plus, you are thinking about it as if John Farrell cares who they traded away to get Pomeranz. As far as I know Farrell still controls who plays where...which leads me to believe that Pomeranz will begin the season in the BP due to a concern over the amount of innings he pitched last year and the elbow trouble they found out about after they traded for him. Not a stupid move, especially since it already happened.

papipapsmanny
12-06-2016, 09:54 PM
No sense in moving Pomeranz to the pen when there was a direct correlation to his production and how far past his previous innings in a season he got.

Rangers are looking for an SP. I would at the very least approach them and offer Pomeranz and maybe Marco Hernandez for Profar

RedSoxtober
12-06-2016, 09:54 PM
i disagree with the "2 year window part"

...

the core pieces of this team are all well on the right side of 30
I think that you misunderstand it then. The 2 year window comment was primarily historical. DD has tended to make moves for a very short window. Still, the comment is somewhat accurate when you consider the contracts rather than the players. Off the top of my head, Pomeranz has 2yrs before FA, Price could opt-out of his deal at the same time, and Kimbrell has a year plus an option that is likely to be exercised for the same amount of control. In other words, the majority of DD's marquee acquisitions are only under control for the next two years.


Is Soler+ for Pomeranz or Rodriguez appetizing for you guys?
Not at all. We should be set with Benintendi, Betts, and Bradley for the same period of time that we'd have Soler under control. There's also Rusney Castillo to serve as an overpaid 4th OFer when Chris Young leaves.


I like the deal but lets not forget we also thought Price was the
savior last yr and how did that turn out? Again like the trade but
until I see some wins from Sale I'll be convinced.
I think that many of the critics of this deal also didn't like the Price signing for being way too expensive. The playoff performance knock was in there, too. I think this is a very different sort of thing.


I'm not saying so much stylistically as the situation. Hard throwing guy who people get really hyped about then realize he's probably not a long term solution. I also asked if Espinoza struggled, I didn't look it up, but I just remember someone telling me he did.
There's one problem with this: no one EVER thought that about Bard. He was quickly forgotten in MiLB because of his complete and total lack of control. He was Nuke Laloosh before Crash Davis. Then they got him to the BP and he went from A-ball to dominant MLB SU in a matter of months. The scenario could not be more different. I think you're forcing a comparison (or loose on the history).


Dave didn't know until Friday he even had a shot at Sale, otherwise we wouldn't have signed Bucholtz.
Even if this were true (I don't buy it), a GM still moves forward with multiple contingency plans. It's quite possibly just poor planning. The only possibly positive long-term outcome is if DD saw something that no one else saw.


we have a terrible farm system because three of our former top prospects are on the roster lol

(xander/beinintendi/mookie)
Eh, not quite. We've also traded away a series of players who may be on par with our young core. In particular, we will be hearing from/about Logan Allen, Espinoza, Kopech, Margot, Moncada for a while and may well see Dubon. I wonder how many of these guys future fans will be lusting over when they hit FA and then mistakenly talk about a "reunion."


ERod appears to be trade bait too imo if we can get a legit piece back.Unlikely, IMO. At some point you've got to have an inexpensive piece in the rotation just to make the books balance.

papipapsmanny
12-06-2016, 09:58 PM
People are freaking out saying this trade as no regard to the team going forward, and then completely disregard that we got a top 3, top 5 at worst SP in baseball for three years at an extremely friendly deal.

The deal doesn't completely disregard the future of this team. But we need to be done at this point

Groome, Travis, Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, Raudes and the young guys on the MLB roster need not go anywhere.

bagwell368
12-06-2016, 10:15 PM
Assuming no more moves (clearly not a great assumption to make with DD in charge...), what's the rotation?

Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, ERod, Buchholz, Wright...

I see Buchholz and Wright as the odd men out (for the rotation I would like to see at least). Trade or BP?

Sale and Price in a row (either way) is silly. My top 3:

Sale
Prcello
Price

Buchholz is now a tradeable piece, deal him.

bagwell368
12-06-2016, 10:22 PM
Just consider that we have a lot of young guys, and consider we are nearing what we can spend - to me it means that farm gets replenished to produce 3-5 years from now. We've got Devers for 3B, we're going to go w/o a full time DH this year IMO, and no big buck bats added. Just deal Buchsmertz (sorry, old thread) for a pen arm, and maybe snag a catcher.

Oops, just heard about Moreland (meh)...

chomaru
12-06-2016, 11:06 PM
Just consider that we have a lot of young guys, and consider we are nearing what we can spend - to me it means that farm gets replenished to produce 3-5 years from now. We've got Devers for 3B, we're going to go w/o a full time DH this year IMO, and no big buck bats added. Just deal Buchsmertz (sorry, old thread) for a pen arm, and maybe snag a catcher.

Oops, just heard about Moreland (meh)...

Don't you think his glove will help? Especially with Bogey. He is going from one hitters paradise to another though so 700 - 800 OPS has to be the desired results in a platoon.

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 12:18 AM
People are freaking out saying this trade as no regard to the team going forward, and then completely disregard that we got a top 3, top 5 at worst SP in baseball for three years at an extremely friendly deal.
Carnac the Great? I mean, you must be a mind reader to know what people are thinking. Or you're creating a strawman that represents nothing like the argument anyone here is making.

BTW, the next three years is not the future. That's primarily the MLB equivalent of "now."


The deal doesn't completely disregard the future of this team. But we need to be done at this point
In isolation, none of the deals completely disregard the future. In totality? They completely disregard the future.


Groome, Travis, Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, Raudes and the young guys on the MLB roster need not go anywhere.Why them and not others? Several of us said the same about Moncada, Kopech, and Margot.

Is it just because those are the only guys left with any upside? That has not stopped DD in the past. He has constantly attempted to find the "master stroke" but to what end? They finished first in the AL Central four years in a row with an average of 91 wins. WS? They lost one but that's it. They haven't been close since and are now looking to sell off pieces because they have no prospect inventory to rebuild.

Does Sale make the Red Sox a WS contender? Yup. But enjoy it while it lasts because it will be gone before you know it.

j-bay
12-07-2016, 12:40 AM
Carnac the Great? I mean, you must be a mind reader to know what people are thinking. Or you're creating a strawman that represents nothing like the argument anyone here is making.

BTW, the next three years is not the future. That's primarily the MLB equivalent of "now."


In isolation, none of the deals completely disregard the future. In totality? They completely disregard the future.

Why them and not others? Several of us said the same about Moncada, Kopech, and Margot.

Is it just because those are the only guys left with any upside? That has not stopped DD in the past. He has constantly attempted to find the "master stroke" but to what end? They finished first in the AL Central four years in a row with an average of 91 wins. WS? They lost one but that's it. They haven't been close since and are now looking to sell off pieces because they have no prospect inventory to rebuild.

Does Sale make the Red Sox a WS contender? Yup. But enjoy it while it lasts because it will be gone before you know it.

We should be able to refill the farm. Will it be as good as it was? Probably not.

ruckus16969
12-07-2016, 12:45 AM
What else are farm systems for apart from using them to acquire ML talent and chosing the best to polish into positionally needed ML talent. Seems like there has been a good mix of the two in the last 3 years.


Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3730/sale-moncada-kopech-basabe-diaz?page=10#ixzz4S7aLKXZ


Thia was something a poster said over at sox prospects . I completely agree

ruckus16969
12-07-2016, 12:53 AM
This article is amazing. Everyone who is doubting what DD has been doing around here NEEDS to read. Great read!!

DD don't lose on trades. Out of 87 trades he has lost 3. Bwar from payers trade to players acquired over 7 years is something like 184 Bwar for players acquired to 80 Bwar of players traded. My numbers are probably off but it's close. DD recognizes when his own top prospects and players are either over rated or bout to fall and he trades them for players who he can tell are going to break out or have excellent track records. He has one almost all of FA signings and wins pennants and WS within a couple years of him taking over teams.




http://grantland.com/features/dave-dombrowski-detroit-tigers/

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 12:57 AM
We should be able to refill the farm. Will it be as good as it was? Probably not.

Yes, we should be able to. But you're missing the point -- that's not what DD does. We're seeing his pattern continue.

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 01:07 AM
What else are farm systems for apart from using them to acquire ML talent and chosing the best to polish into positionally needed ML talent. Seems like there has been a good mix of the two in the last 3 years.
A good mix of the two in the last 3 years? LOL, seriously? Over the last three years means 2yrs of BC bringing up the best prospects in my lifetime with a pipeline prepared to graduate one or two every season then DD inheriting the pipeline and selling almost everything in sight for a year. That's not a mix but rather a radical shift in philosophy that is paying dividends in immediate gratification.


This article is amazing. Everyone who is doubting what DD has been doing around here NEEDS to read. Great read!!
The article is also almost three years old. It's missing some history. And, as I said, he may rarely have had the kind of talent to deal that he has had lately.

AI
12-07-2016, 01:35 AM
Yes, we should be able to. But you're missing the point -- that's not what DD does. We're seeing his pattern continue.

Exactly. By the time Xander, JBJ, Betts and others are all expensive, we'll have nobody (with the exception of Devers if he's not traded) coming up through the farm to help offset some of those contracts in the form of cost-control/cheap production. People underestimate the effect all these moves will soon have on us by assuming that we'll just re-stock, as if it were that easy and even more ludicrous when you consider that it's something that DD has never done.

It's always nice to go for it but the cost we have paid these last 2 years both in $ and prospects has been substantial. I'm afraid that we mortgaged our future in order to try to maximize our chances during this 2-3 year window.

The thing that saddens me the most is that I honestly believe that we were very close to building something very special here, a team that could compete for a decade and not just a small window of opportunity. Consider the young talent already on the major league roster then add in the fact that there was a plethora of talent still on it's way, we'll end up regretting some of these deals in the long run.

What's funny is that MLB clubs are transitioning to trying to gather all the young talent they can and keep them by locking them up, because it's very hard to find those premium guys nowadays and we're just shipping them out left and right. I'm on the record saying I didn't like or agree with the Kimbrel trade, thought it was a bad allocation of resources, but at the very least we knew Margot was blocked and was expendable so we bit the bullet.

Losing Espinoza for Pomeranz is the one that really throws a wrench into everything for me, especially after the Sale trade, because I don't see the reason for it now. Should have been one or the other, but not both. And that's the point I'm trying to make, all these deals aren't mutually exclusive, you have to look at the overall crop of talent that we've shipped out under the DD regime.

Some good trades: Ziegler, Carson Smith/Elias, Thornburg, Abad (only gave up Light)

Some bad trades: Kimbrel (overpay & bad allocation of assets; by itself though, filled a need)

Some awful trades: Pomeranz

Some trades that don't even matter: Cecchini to MIL, Rijo and Wilkerson for Aaron Hill

And then there's the Sale trade which by itself, is a good trade for us, if DD hadn't completely demolished our farm already.

-Lavigne43-
12-07-2016, 01:40 AM
This is a 2-3 year window with this roster. If Price performs like we all hope he does, he is likely gone. Price opting out and leaving would probably be the optimal situation too since all of our pitchers contracts end the year after, and then begins the start of all our young guys becoming FA's. We are ****ed if Price declines and we are stuck with his contract. After 2019 our team will be completely different.

2017 Offseason FA
Buchholz
Kimbrel (option)
Sale (option)
Chris Young


2018 offseason potential FA's
Price (opt out)
Hanley (Vesting option based on PA's, physical)
Kimbrel
Sale (option)

2019
Sandoval (option)
Hanley
Porcello
Sale
Joe Kelly
Pomeranz

2020
Xander Bogaerts
Brock Holt
Thornburg

j-bay
12-07-2016, 08:42 AM
So i'm guessing the way people are talking is that they only see Sale staying for 3 years?

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 09:24 AM
This is a 2-3 year window with this roster. If Price performs like we all hope he does, he is likely gone. Price opting out and leaving would probably be the optimal situation too since all of our pitchers contracts end the year after, and then begins the start of all our young guys becoming FA's.
I'll be surprised if Price doesn't opt-out almost regardless of performance. He social media relationship with the area does not seem to have improved a ton signing.


So i'm guessing the way people are talking is that they only see Sale staying for 3 years?
Why does it matter? Anything beyond 3yrs they could (and will) be buying on the FA market.

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 09:36 AM
In a vacuum, any one of these trades is defensible. After all, what's the point of building a farm system if you won't trade anyone? Cherington fell into this trap to the exclusion of deals that might've helped him keep his job. And more to the point, if ever there's a player to move elite prospects for, it's Sale.

But taken in total, these moves will be the stuff of scorched earth and smoldering ruins when Dombrowski inevitably leaves in the next five or so years. If the Red Sox haven't won a World Series by then, we'll have the last 13 months to thank for the dark ages that follow.

...

By the time the Red Sox feel that loss, the barren system will probably be someone else's problem. A Red Sox organization once built to win for 10 years is suddenly going all in on the next three or four. If they claim another World Series trophy, we'll live with the consequences. And if they don't, they'll be the Tigers.

Dombrowski's former team illustrates how this story potentially ends. The Tigers went for it year after year. They made a surprising World Series in 2006, losing to the Cardinals. From 2011-13, they reached the ALCS every year, advancing to the World Series in 2012, where the Giants swept them.

By the time Dombrowski departed, the Tigers owned one of the worst farm systems in baseball. They dropped to 74 wins in 2015 before rebounding to win 86 last year. But they're only hanging on, with perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera and Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander entering their mid-30s. Now Detroit wants to shed aging stars like Victor Martinez. Things will get worse before they get better.weei.com

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 09:39 AM
"When you have a chance to win," Dombrowski said, "you want to give yourself every opportunity to do so."

"When he targets a guy, he gets him," Red Sox manager John Farrell said. "There's a lot to be said for his boldness, his aggressiveness. He's not really worried about what the perception is. He's most concerned with acquiring players that are going to allow us to win the most right now."Providence Journal

Speaks pretty well to AI's point of a lack of overarching planning. If you can win now, then you do it and "don't worry about the perception."

chomaru
12-07-2016, 09:59 AM
I think the narrative that DD has a history of dismantling farm systems is misleading. His problem with the Tigers was with drafting and developing players not that he was recklessly trading away future impact major league guys. You can't burn down a field of dirt.

With the Marlins he had quite a few hauls when in sell mode, the worst trade he probably made was Johan Santana for Jared Camp but that was a swap of 2 minor league players.

Oakmont_4
12-07-2016, 10:24 AM
Providence Journal

Speaks pretty well to AI's point of a lack of overarching planning. If you can win now, then you do it and "don't worry about the perception."

Yes, if you have a chance to win now, you do it. Absolutely you do it. We did it when we traded Hanley for Beckett and Lowell. It worked. It didn't hinder our future or we wouldn't be here now. Have we had some down seasons in between World Series championship? Yup. But I'll take them along with the Championships. Or would you rather be the Cardinals who seemingly make the NLCS or WS regularly but never win anything? I'll take the former please.

This approach doesn't mean there is no plan going forward. This is where I disagree most. Is our farm 10 times worse than it was on Monday, or a year ago? Yes it is. I'm not denying that. But our big league roster is equally better.

I don't see the point in middling around in the first round of the playoffs with no hope in advancing because our team is good but not great. All in hopes that Moncada, Espinoza, and Kopech will at some point come up and put us over the top. Odds are only 2 of those players pan out to their ceilings AT MOST. Are those 2 additions going to bring WS to Boston? I have many many doubts about that. If they fail... Then we wasted the careers of X, Betts, JBJ, Benintendi all because we wanted to play it safe and not move them because they just might've been something one day.

You have to take chances in sports. Will they always pay off? No, of course not. But I'd much rather take a swing at it as long as the trades make sense. Sale is one of the best pitchers in this game. He gives us the best pitching staff in the AL in 2017 and possibly for 18' and 19' as well...even beyond. If we become the Tigers, we become the Tigers. But what's the difference between the Tigers cash in approach that failed or the Cardinals home grown player approach that has also not delivered?

There is no right and wrong here. It's a matter of philosophy. Only time can tell now.

Petertherock
12-07-2016, 01:01 PM
I just want to see Sale rip apart some of our old time jerseys! LOL!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 01:20 PM
Yes, if you have a chance to win now, you do it. Absolutely you do it. We did it when we traded Hanley for Beckett and Lowell. It worked. It didn't hinder our future or we wouldn't be here now. Have we had some down seasons in between World Series championship? Yup. But I'll take them along with the Championships. Or would you rather be the Cardinals who seemingly make the NLCS or WS regularly but never win anything? I'll take the former please.

But what if you ALWAYS perceive the chance to "make yourself better... win now"? It's like the d-bag kid in a college class years ago who was arguing with the professor over going from a 99 to a 100 on the exam. Did you improve? Technically, yeah. (Actually the prof was notoriously short tempered and told him to piss off.) Did you need to improve? No. You went from an A+ to an A+ but you spent some capital doing so.

This is where I get off the train with DD. Some of the other deals were controversial in terms of cost vs value but even if we grant every one a winner for DD the totality of the deals is like the kid arguing to go from a 99 to 100.

Oakmont_4
12-07-2016, 01:54 PM
But what if you ALWAYS perceive the chance to "make yourself better... win now"? It's like the d-bag kid in a college class years ago who was arguing with the professor over going from a 99 to a 100 on the exam. Did you improve? Technically, yeah. (Actually the prof was notoriously short tempered and told him to piss off.) Did you need to improve? No. You went from an A+ to an A+ but you spent some capital doing so.

This is where I get off the train with DD. Some of the other deals were controversial in terms of cost vs value but even if we grant every one a winner for DD the totality of the deals is like the kid arguing to go from a 99 to 100.

I get what you're saying, but the situation you're applying this logic to is not the case. Our pitching staff was not an A+ last year. It wasn't even an A. It was a clear need if we wanted to be true contenders. Year after year teams with high octane offenses and average to good pitching cruise through the regular season and are bounced out of the playoffs early. We needed a clear cut ACE...And that ace isn't Price or Porcello. They're both very good pitchers...But they're not a Kershaw, Bumgarner or Lester who can put the team on their backs and carry them through the playoffs.

Now Sale has no track record of this either. But I think he has the stuff AND the attitude/competitive edge to do it (unlike Price and Porcello).

Taking the totality of the deals, I don't agree. I don't even think its comparable. It's the market that dictates the cost. It's not like DD was like hey I need some small improvements in my pitching staff, I think I deal my top 10 prospects for them. That's not what happened. And honestly the jury is still out on these prospects AND the players we got in return.

Lets go back in time to the Lackey signing. Very similar. Years 1 and 2 this was the worst signing in Red Sox history. By the time he was traded, people around here were all up and arms because we just traded Lackey for some lesser guys. In hind sight...Lackey was a good deal through and through. In terms of the sign/performance here and what we got in return from him.

Lets reserve judgment on speculating the future of what could or couldn't be. Nobody knows and its impossible to predict or even paint an accurate picture of. Look at the Talent and the teams construction now. Kimbrel is a top 7 closer in the game. Look at what he'd get on the FA market if he were available today. Pomeranz (who I'm in agreement, was the worse of the 3 trades) still can play a very valuable role for this team and I don't care if that's in the starting rotation or the BP or bouncing back and forth. I don't see a pitcher we can sign on the FA market this year that would be better and offer better value money wise. And in the case of Sale, you give up Moncada for a top 5 pitcher in the MLB who's cost controlled for 3 more years, every time. Pitching is just too hard to get, especially elite pitching. This isn't the case of RA Dickey where you trade Syndergard for a 1 year wonder who's 30+.

It's nearly impossible to get quality pitching these days without overpaying (monetarily or via trade). And Pitching is necessary to get where we want to go. At some point you have to choose. Do you overpay or pay fair value to improve what you have...Or do you stay course and middle around because you have to win every trade and keeping a top 5 farm system in tact?

j-bay
12-07-2016, 02:14 PM
Now the question is to by a Chris Sale shirt or to not buy a Chris Sale shirt. Hmmmm....

RedSoxtober
12-07-2016, 03:15 PM
For the record, I actually like this particular deal. Moncada's stock was dropping with me primarily over concerns with his strike zone management and the sense that he is being stubborn about adjusting his style to play for speed over power. There are rumors of him being undisciplined but I don't know where they stem from. I've been coming around on Kopech -- and he's the one I least like losing in this deal -- but there are maturity issues that he has yet to prove that he can overcome. I wasn't blown away by either Basabe or Diaz but saw the potential. For Sale? Yup, I'd do that deal.

It's the combination of Sale, Pomeranz, Kimbrel, Smith (and the host of lesser deals) draining the system that I find deadly. There's no need to persuade me to like any one of them (aside from Pomeranz) but the collection... ouch.


I get what you're saying, but the situation you're applying this logic to is not the case. Our pitching staff was not an A+ last year.
But the starting pitching is only one section on the exam. The exam is the team and the season. They were an 'A' (odds-on favorite to make the WS) in that perspective.


Taking the totality of the deals, I don't agree. I don't even think its comparable. It's the market that dictates the cost. It's not like DD was like hey I need some small improvements in my pitching staff, I think I deal my top 10 prospects for them. That's not what happened. And honestly the jury is still out on these prospects AND the players we got in return.
His approach is increasingly one of constantly tinkering. That, in large part, is what gives him the "Deal Maker" reputation. I think that he's always going to see just-one-more-piece lying on the game board and try to scoop it up. I think that the evidence is in dealing half of our top 15 prospects -- many with BA top 100 honors -- as the basis for these deals.


It's nearly impossible to get quality pitching these days without overpaying (monetarily or via trade). And Pitching is necessary to get where we want to go. At some point you have to choose. Do you overpay or pay fair value to improve what you have...Or do you stay course and middle around because you have to win every trade and keeping a top 5 farm system in tact?
Part of the reason that it's very expensive is because the big market teams tend to (over)pay on the FA market to get the pieces on the top-shelf. Those Prices (double-entendre) have become so expensive that teams are forced to (over)value prospects and cheap contracts; it's the only way to strike a balance that gets them under the CBT.

Why do they pay so much? Well, a big factor is trading the Espinoza's and Kopech's of the prospect world and then needing to pay for the talent you're no longer developing. Just look at the AL East where the Rays and Jays feature the most homegrown pitchers while BOS and NYY feature one between them. It's a self-reinforcing cycle. It's clearly not the only reason but it certainly is a big factor.

Green_Monster
12-07-2016, 03:42 PM
On another note...

In the MLB main I was told that Basabe+Diaz was close to the value of Devers. :laugh2:

AI
12-07-2016, 03:57 PM
On another note...

In the MLB main I was told that Basabe+Diaz was close to the value of Devers. :laugh2:

Jeffy gonna Jeffy.

xnick5757
12-07-2016, 05:52 PM
moncada for sale is exactly the type of move that a team like the sox should make


its trading future wins for wins now (as moncada isn't ready to produce yet) rather than trading wins now for 1 or two more now (if they had traded betts or someone else at the deadline)


also, people on here act like prospects succeed more often than they do. for every mookie betts you get 4 or 5 Buxtons or Cecchinis

AI
12-07-2016, 06:36 PM
Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is all smiles. (Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports)Here was my fear the day the Red Sox hired Dave Dombrowski: that we'd eventually look back at his tenure as the complete and utter dismantling of the Theo Epstein/Ben Cherington Era.

I'm feeling a lot worse about that possibility today, because his work is virtually finished.

On Tuesday, Dombrowski pulled off a blockbuster, acquiring White Sox ace Chris Sale. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, there hasn't been a better pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons. Sale is a stud.

That's only half of the equation, though. Because to get him, the Red Sox shipped out the two best prospects remaining in their farm system -- Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech.

I don't hate this deal. I can't hate this deal. It makes the Red Sox the clear favorites in the American League and allows them to rival the Cubs and Indians for the game's best rotations. The cost-controlled Sale is everything you look for in an acquisition and he'll almost certainly be starting playoff games come October.

But I can and do take major issue with the totality of Dombrowski's work.

In short order, Dombrowski has decimated what had been the most robust system in the game. Since the deal last November that sent four minor leaguers to San Diego for closer Craig Kimbrel -- a bit of a meh acquisition considering the ways closers frequently emerge from obscurity (Koji Uehara) -- Dombrowski has systematically stripped the Red Sox of their best prospects by systematically overpaying to acquire talent.

In the last year-plus alone, he has traded Moncada, Kopech, Anderson Espinoza, Travis Shaw, Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen, Pat Light, Mauricio Dubon, the Basabe brothers, Victor Diaz, Wendell Rijo, and others I'm undoubtedly forgetting to acquire Sale, Kimbrel, Brad Ziegler, Aaron Hill, Drew Pomeranz, and Fernando Abad. Carson Smith arrived in a separate deal built around big leaguer Wade Miley.

In a vacuum, any one of these trades is defensible. After all, what's the point of building a farm system if you won't trade anyone? Cherington fell into this trap to the exclusion of deals that might've helped him keep his job. And more to the point, if ever there's a player to move elite prospects for, it's Sale.

But taken in total, these moves will be the stuff of scorched earth and smoldering ruins when Dombrowski inevitably leaves in the next five or so years. If the Red Sox haven't won a World Series by then, we'll have the last 13 months to thank for the dark ages that follow.

No one wants to hear that today, because Sale is a monster, and if there's one thing Dombrowski has mastered, it's the art of the Decisive Move.

Impatient fans and media will always applaud aggression over long-term planning. That's why Celtics boss Danny Ainge has begun hearing grumbling, even though building via lottery picks for two more years could pay off tremendously in the long run.

Aggressive moves aren't necessarily better moves. They're simply more immediate. Had Dombrowski been in charge of the system even three years ago, it's a virtual certainty Mookie Betts would've finished second in the MVP voting for someone else this year. Maybe the Red Sox would feature Cole Hamels or Max Scherzer in their rotation as a result, but I'll take the elite 20-something position player every day of the week.

Imagine how differently we'd feel about these exciting young Red Sox without some combination of Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr., three All-Stars who could've been sacrificed in the name of instant gratification.

Now the next generation is gone. By the time the Red Sox feel that loss, the barren system will probably be someone else's problem. A Red Sox organization once built to win for 10 years is suddenly going all in on the next three or four. If they claim another World Series trophy, we'll live with the consequences. And if they don't, they'll be the Tigers.

Dombrowski's former team illustrates how this story potentially ends. The Tigers went for it year after year. They made a surprising World Series in 2006, losing to the Cardinals. From 2011-13, they reached the ALCS every year, advancing to the World Series in 2012, where the Giants swept them.

By the time Dombrowski departed, the Tigers owned one of the worst farm systems in baseball. They dropped to 74 wins in 2015 before rebounding to win 86 last year. But they're only hanging on, with perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera and Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander entering their mid-30s. Now Detroit wants to shed aging stars like Victor Martinez. Things will get worse before they get better.

Would Tigers fans trade those near-misses for more stability now? I'm not sure of the answer.

What I do know is that Dombrowski gave up too much for Kimbrel, who was *just* scary enough last year to leave us wondering if he can be trusted in October. Trading Espinoza, his best pitching prospect, for Pomeranz remains inexcusable, topped perhaps only be declining to reverse the deal in light of San Diego's medical chicanery.

I won't put Sale in that class, particularly with questions about Moncada's discipline and Kopech's command. He makes the Red Sox World Series favorites, though nothing is definite. But there's a real chance both prospects become All-Stars, which could eventually give this deal a far different feel.

After all, the Expos relished adding Bartolo Colon in 2002, at least until Cliff Lee won a Cy Young and Grady Sizemore became an All-Star in Cleveland. The Tigers have no regrets about shipping Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets for Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. Closer to home, think the Red Sox would still trade Anthony Rizzo even straight up for Adrian Gonzalez if they could journey back in time?

Those are the risks teams make when they trade prospects. The Red Sox have dealt a staggering number in the last year, increasing the odds they've jettisoned someone they'll regret.

The clock is ticking, and Dave Dombrowski's Red Sox legacy is at stake. He'll either be the man who restored them to glory or hamstrung them before they could build a dynasty.

We'll know sooner than later.

http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/john-tomase/2016/12/06/its-possible-love-chris-sale-trade-hate-what-i

tiger_ted
12-07-2016, 07:01 PM
At least we got some return from the White Sox.. See the Nats just got rinsed.....

-Lavigne43-
12-07-2016, 07:16 PM
Yes, if you have a chance to win now, you do it. Absolutely you do it. We did it when we traded Hanley for Beckett and Lowell. It worked. It didn't hinder our future or we wouldn't be here now. Have we had some down seasons in between World Series championship? Yup. But I'll take them along with the Championships. Or would you rather be the Cardinals who seemingly make the NLCS or WS regularly but never win anything? I'll take the former please.

This approach doesn't mean there is no plan going forward. This is where I disagree most. Is our farm 10 times worse than it was on Monday, or a year ago? Yes it is. I'm not denying that. But our big league roster is equally better.

I don't see the point in middling around in the first round of the playoffs with no hope in advancing because our team is good but not great. All in hopes that Moncada, Espinoza, and Kopech will at some point come up and put us over the top. Odds are only 2 of those players pan out to their ceilings AT MOST. Are those 2 additions going to bring WS to Boston? I have many many doubts about that. If they fail... Then we wasted the careers of X, Betts, JBJ, Benintendi all because we wanted to play it safe and not move them because they just might've been something one day.

You have to take chances in sports. Will they always pay off? No, of course not. But I'd much rather take a swing at it as long as the trades make sense. Sale is one of the best pitchers in this game. He gives us the best pitching staff in the AL in 2017 and possibly for 18' and 19' as well...even beyond. If we become the Tigers, we become the Tigers. But what's the difference between the Tigers cash in approach that failed or the Cardinals home grown player approach that has also not delivered?

There is no right and wrong here. It's a matter of philosophy. Only time can tell now.

We didn't precede the Beckett trade by trading Lester, Pedroia, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson, Lowrie for whoever happened to be available at the time.

AI
12-07-2016, 07:20 PM
I'd hardly call that rinsed. Eaton is a very valuable player under a team friendly contract for the next 5 years. He's elite defensively in CF and put up a 6.0 fWAR in 2016 (sandwiched in between Beltre and Cano). To put things in perspective, he was more valuable than guys like Arenado, Murphy, Rizzo, Votto, Correa, Miggy, Pedroia, Xander, JBJ and the list goes on.

It wasn't a fluke either because his overall line was quite similar to his 2015 season.

2015 - .287/.361/.431, .792 OPS, 175 H, 28 2B, 9 3B, 14 HR, 14 HBP

2016 - .284/.362/.428, .790 OPS, 176 H, 29 2B, 9 3B, 14 HR, 14 HBP

kyubi256
12-07-2016, 07:32 PM
If DD can deliver a ring or two to Boston then this would be fine... If not, then these moves will cause headaches for long long time

kyubi256
12-07-2016, 07:34 PM
I'd hardly call that rinsed. Eaton is a very valuable player under a team friendly contract for the next 5 years. He's elite defensively in CF and put up a 6.0 fWAR in 2016 (sandwiched in between Beltre and Cano). To put things in perspective, he was more valuable than guys like Arenado, Murphy, Rizzo, Votto, Correa, Miggy, Pedroia, Xander, JBJ and the list goes on.

It wasn't a fluke either because his overall line was quite similar to his 2015 season.

2015 - .287/.361/.431, .792 OPS, 175 H, 28 2B, 9 3B, 14 HR, 14 HBP

2016 - .284/.362/.428, .790 OPS, 176 H, 29 2B, 9 3B, 14 HR, 14 HBP

Eaton is a good player, but he cost a premium. He should have only cost Giolito and lesser prospects. Not Giolito and Lopez

AI
12-07-2016, 07:37 PM
Eaton is a good player, but he cost a premium. He should have only cost Giolito and lesser prospects. Not Giolito and Lopez

He has 5 years of club control left at only $38M, of course he cost a premium. That's one of the best contracts in baseball.

xnick5757
12-07-2016, 08:28 PM
We didn't precede the Beckett trade by trading Lester, Pedroia, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson, Lowrie for whoever happened to be available at the time.


just like we haven't traded xander, bradley, mookie, benintendi, eduardo, swihart or devers

j-bay
12-07-2016, 08:39 PM
Maybe its me, but Eaton could be like Murphy. A under the radar player who could have a great season.

-Lavigne43-
12-07-2016, 09:37 PM
just like we haven't traded xander, bradley, mookie, benintendi, eduardo, swihart or devers

Papelbon is the only player I listed that had any mlb experience before we got Beckett, and they were all still considered prospects. All of those guys you listed have significant big league experience with the exception of Benintendi and Devers. If Benintendi didn't make it to the majors last season you can bet he would have been traded too.

My point remains, Theo could have easily traded for Johan Santana and other players and made a super team. He didn't because Theo has the vision to mix both long term and short term success. When Theo traded big prospects he got big players in return. Hanley and Anibal Sanchez were the only big prospects he traded in the run up to the 2007 championship, it's not at all comparable to what has happened the last year. Dombrowski on the other hand can't help himself from trading every long term unproven assett he has for whatever options are available. Sometimes that leads to great players in return like Sale. Other times he overreaches and gets played for guys like Pomeranz. You have to know when to pull the trigger. Dombrowski is the most trigger happy GM in the entire league, and it's not close.

If Dombrowski was our GM immediately after Theo he would have probably traded all of the guys you named who were on the roster for Cliff Lee. He would have traded whatever remained a couple years later for Cole Hamels. That's the only way he operates. Hopefully it leads to a championship before everything crashes.

Oakmont_4
12-07-2016, 10:01 PM
We didn't precede the Beckett trade by trading Lester, Pedroia, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson, Lowrie for whoever happened to be available at the time.

Well, only Lester, Papelbon, and Lowrie were the only ones actually in our farm when we traded for Beckett. So yes, this is true.

We also didn't trade Vazquez, Swihart, Betts, JBJ, Benintendi before Sale either.

Also, let's take a stroll down memory lane and look at what Theo did in his early days.

Here's the Red Sox top 10 prospects back then.
2003
1. Hanley Ramirez - Traded for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell
2. Kelly Shoppach - Short stint on Sox before being traded to Cleveland as secondary piece in the Coco Crisp deal
3. Kevin Youkilis - Foundation piece of mid-late 2000's Red Sox
4. Freddy Sanchez - Traded for Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon, Anastacio Martinez
5. Phil Dumatrait - Traded for Scott Williamson
6. Manny Delcarman - Pitched for Red Sox, best seasons were 2007-2008
7. Billy Simon
8. Jon Lester - Pitched for Red Sox and became the Ace
9. Jorge De La Rosa - Traded along with Fossum and Brandon Lyon for Curt Schilling
10. Josh Thigpen

So here you have 5 players in the top 10 of Theo's farm traded. (prospects #1, 2, 4, 5, 9)

Dombrowski has traded 4 players in the Red Sox 2015 top 10 (Prospects #1, 5, 6, 7 Moncada, Kopech, Espinoza, Merrero)

How did they win that first WS? They stocked up on pitching... And took an historically good offense in 2003 and balanced it out. Sound familiar?

Let's look at some arrivals and departures between 2003-2004
Nixon out - Kapler in
Walker out - Belhorne in
Nomar out - Cabrera in

Now lets look at the SP
Martinez ----- Martinez
Lowe ---------Schilling
Wakefield ----Lowe
Burkett ------ Wakefield
Fossum ------Arroyo

We Traded Fossum (#5 MLB starter (high prospect), Lyon (who we traded our #2 prospect for), De La Rosa (#9 prospect) for Schilling (who was much older then than Sale is today mind you)

2003 closer was Kim (failed trade by Theo) 2004 we sign Foulke

Bullpen
Timlin ----------Timlin
Mendoza--------Leskanic
Lyon -----------Williamson (traded our #5 prospect for)
Embree---------Embree

You can literally draw parallels from 2003-2004 to 2016-2017

2003 we trade
Fossum (high end prospect already on MLB roster)
Sanchez (#2 prospect)
Dumatrait (#5 prospect)
De La Rosa (#9 Prospect)
Receive
Schilling (#2 starter)
Williamson (BP arm)

2016 we trade
Moncada (#1 prospect)
Kopech (#5 prospect)
Espinoza (#6 prospect)
Merrero (#7 prospect)
Receive
Sale (#1 starter)
Pomeranz (#4-5 starter or BP arm)
Thornberg (SU man)

Very similar. I just don't get the "shock" factor I'm seeing here. Trading top prospects is nothing new here in Boston. The times the trades have really come back to bite us we can count on one hand. It's worth the risk. It's worked in the past. There's no reason it can't work again.

Oh...Theo trading our #1, 2, 4, 5, 9 didn't kill out farm or our future...

papipapsmanny
12-07-2016, 11:23 PM
Carnac the Great? I mean, you must be a mind reader to know what people are thinking. Or you're creating a strawman that represents nothing like the argument anyone here is making.

BTW, the next three years is not the future. That's primarily the MLB equivalent of "now."


In isolation, none of the deals completely disregard the future. In totality? They completely disregard the future.

Why them and not others? Several of us said the same about Moncada, Kopech, and Margot.

Is it just because those are the only guys left with any upside? That has not stopped DD in the past. He has constantly attempted to find the "master stroke" but to what end? They finished first in the AL Central four years in a row with an average of 91 wins. WS? They lost one but that's it. They haven't been close since and are now looking to sell off pieces because they have no prospect inventory to rebuild.

Does Sale make the Red Sox a WS contender? Yup. But enjoy it while it lasts because it will be gone before you know it.

Strawman? No people say this completely disregards the future.... how? If you want to run with the narrative that the next three years isn't the future and we should only focus on the future as being the 2020 season and beyond, than yes this trade disregards the future of this team.... but that would be a silly narrative.

Especially considering that three years ago we didn't even have Kopech, Moncada, Ockimey, Travis, Chavis, Benintendi, Allen, Dalbec, Groome, espinoza, raudes, Diaz, E-Rod weren't even on our roster at this time in 2013 and Devers had just signed with us about 6 months prior.

Obviously I named those guys to my point of DD better be done keep the talent we have left because they are still a good foundation to build the farm on going forward. Not sure what was hard to understand there.

Then to add this this overall point about the future..... we have Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Swihart, E-rod, JBJ, Vazquez that are all 27 and under.

B'sCeltsPatsSox
12-08-2016, 01:01 AM
Maybe it's just me, but I'm not all that worried about the FO not re-signing anyone.

Oakmont_4
12-08-2016, 07:08 AM
Maybe it's just me, but I'm not all that worried about the FO not re-signing anyone.

I'm not either. We're the Red Sox. We can retain anyone we want to, money won't be an issue.

I think their concern is that when we do re-sign everyone, we won't have anyone in the farm ready to come up and fill the other holes and we won't have money to sign other Free Agents (at least ones that will make an impact). I disagree here too, and I think it's too early to be worried about that. A lot can change in 3-5 years.

homie564
12-08-2016, 12:17 PM
He has 5 years of club control left at only $38M, of course he cost a premium. That's one of the best contracts in baseball.

Ehhh I kind of think the Nats got hosed there too. Eaton is a good player but I don't think he's a perennial 6WAR player. They gave up a lot for a guy who is probably not an "elite" player.

Personally If they offered that package + Robles for Sale... I have no clue how the White Sox took our offer over theirs...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

RedSoxtober
12-08-2016, 01:57 PM
Oh...Theo trading our #1, 2, 4, 5, 9 didn't kill out farm or our future...
The problem with this diatribe is that it makes the mistake of assuming that every group of top 10 prospects is the same. Your profoundly wrong on that count. Of the guys that got traded by Theo, only two (Hanley, Shoppach) were top-100 talents and they were at either end of the top 100.

Now, if we expand the list of prospects traded away to include the acquisition of Kimbrel (reasonable if you're comparing moves in multiple seasons under Theo) we've traded multiple top-100 talents and many of them in the top quartile at the time of the deal. There really is NO comparison between the level of talent that Theo traded and the level that Dombrowski dealt any more than there is a similarity between Lars Anderson and Yoan Moncada beyond a one-time #1 ranking in the Red Sox farm system.


Strawman? No people say this completely disregards the future.... how? If you want to run with the narrative that the next three years isn't the future and we should only focus on the future as being the 2020 season and beyond, than yes this trade disregards the future of this team.... but that would be a silly narrative.
Please differentiate between "now" and "future." The discussion here has been that we should "win now" and linking it to the next three years.


Especially considering that three years ago we didn't even have Kopech, Moncada, Ockimey, Travis, Chavis, Benintendi, Allen, Dalbec, Groome, espinoza, raudes, Diaz, E-Rod weren't even on our roster at this time in 2013 and Devers had just signed with us about 6 months prior.
(1) What IFA has DD landed that became big time prospects?
(2) Which big time prospects did DD retain that became foundational players in DET?

In 13 years running the Tigers, I don't think that the list of answers to BOTH questions goes beyond Verlander and possibly Austin Jackson.


I'm not either. We're the Red Sox. We can retain anyone we want to, money won't be an issue.
Don't forget to click your heels together when you repeat your mantra. It helps to make the wish come true.
http://cdn4.thr.com/sites/default/files/2011/12/rubyslippersstillcopy.jpg

Oakmont_4
12-08-2016, 02:02 PM
The problem with this diatribe is that it makes the mistake of assuming that every group of top 10 prospects is the same. Your profoundly wrong on that count. Of the guys that got traded by Theo, only two (Hanley, Shoppach) were top-100 talents and they were at either end of the top 100.

Now, if we expand the list of prospects traded away to include the acquisition of Kimbrel (reasonable if you're comparing moves in multiple seasons under Theo) we've traded multiple top-100 talents and many of them in the top quartile at the time of the deal. There really is NO comparison between the level of talent that Theo traded and the level that Dombrowski dealt any more than there is a similarity between Lars Anderson and Yoan Moncada beyond a one-time #1 ranking in the Red Sox farm system.

And the problem with your assumption is that "top 100" means they'll actually be good to great players. That label doesn't mean much to me. In the same group I pulled from Lester and Youkilis weren't in the top 100 and were ranked BELOW the 2 that were. So clearly, in this debate, the top 100 label is only a label. And that is more to my point. Theo kept the guys he liked, despite their rankings. Let's give DD the same respect.

Until Yoan Moncada outperforms Lars Anderson in the MLB, there actually isn't any difference other than a label. I personally think he will. But my point stands. And again, Hanley was traded in 2005 when the farm was much deeper and higher ranked.


Don't forget to click your heels together when you repeat your mantra. It helps to make the wish come true.
http://cdn4.thr.com/sites/default/files/2011/12/rubyslippersstillcopy.jpg

It's a fact. They can retain anyone they want. That's not to say they will. Or they don't need to make corresponding moves to do so. But we're not the Tampa Bay Rays or the Minnesota Twins.

RedSoxtober
12-08-2016, 02:10 PM
You seem to be saying that, from a theoretical standpoint, the Sox can retain anyone when in reality you also recognize that they won't. That's not different from any other team in MLB, Rays and Twins included. They're all owned by individuals and groups with billions of dollars to spend, but we cannot ignore their history just to say something is possible.

BTW, my apologies for the GIF. That was crappy of me.

j-bay
12-08-2016, 03:00 PM
Ok we have pretty much vented about the deal and the future. Now lets talk about Sale himself. How do you guys think he will do here.

Soxfan85
12-08-2016, 07:23 PM
Ok we have pretty much vented about the deal and the future. Now lets talk about Sale himself. How do you guys think he will do here.



Below is 2016 MLB Park Run Factors

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp-content/uploads/sites/28/2016/12/2300-32.jpg&w=1484



Sale has three starts at Fenway in his career. One was a disaster (he gave up seven earned runs and 12 hits in five innings in 2015) and two were gems (two one-run, four-hit outings in seven innings — one in 2014 and the other in 2016). But the short fence in left field might be a huge problem for Sale over the course of a season.
Since 2010, hitters produced a flyball against Sale on 35.4 percent of balls put in play — one of the highest rates among pitchers with at least 750 innings during that span. At Guaranteed Rate Field, a reduced number of those that made their way to the left-field fence wouldn’t leave the park, but at Fenway, things could get ugly. Below is a spray chart for flyballs hit against Sale at home in his career superimposed on Fenway Park. As you can see, many more of those benign flyballs (and doubles) would be home runs at Sale’s new digs

https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp-content/uploads/sites/28/2016/12/Chris-Sale-1.png

Washington Post

bagwell368
12-08-2016, 11:37 PM
I think the narrative that DD has a history of dismantling farm systems is misleading. His problem with the Tigers was with drafting and developing players not that he was recklessly trading away future impact major league guys. You can't burn down a field of dirt.

He also inked a number of guys who fell off the cliff in Detroit.

Not every spec makes it (not enuf room on the roster, not good enough etc.). The art is being able to cull out the ones that are not going to turn into Jeff Bagwell. I'd estimate at least two of the specs he's dealt since he got here are going to be 40+ WAR players. If it's 4, it's a disaster.

The question is, can he slow down the dealing over the next 3 years (luxury tax scare), and let others that know drafting better then him have their head - and content himself with smaller deals of excess assets for cheap players. Smuckholz should be on the block and could draw some interesting - but not amazing piece.

papipapsmanny
12-09-2016, 12:13 AM
He also inked a number of guys who fell off the cliff in Detroit.

Not every spec makes it (not enuf room on the roster, not good enough etc.). The art is being able to cull out the ones that are not going to turn into Jeff Bagwell. I'd estimate at least two of the specs he's dealt since he got here are going to be 40+ WAR players. If it's 4, it's a disaster.

The question is, can he slow down the dealing over the next 3 years (luxury tax scare), and let others that know drafting better then him have their head - and content himself with smaller deals of excess assets for cheap players. Smuckholz should be on the block and could draw some interesting - but not amazing piece.

That is an extremely bold statement. What we just saw with bogaerts, betts, and Benintendi coming up and panning out is extremely rare.

You just essentially stated at least 2 of these specs are going to average 3.5 WAR per season for their careers. Not saying it can't happen, but a very bold statement.

Also in context you have to remember what Bagwell was traded for and what these guys were just traded for.

bagwell368
12-09-2016, 07:25 AM
That is an extremely bold statement. What we just saw with bogaerts, betts, and Benintendi coming up and panning out is extremely rare.

You just essentially stated at least 2 of these specs are going to average 3.5 WAR per season for their careers. Not saying it can't happen, but a very bold statement.

Also in context you have to remember what Bagwell was traded for and what these guys were just traded for.

That's why I said "estimate". If 1 or 0 then the deals (as a total) are liable to be in our favor. If 2 it's a push only if what we get really works for us (and I'd include what we get for Buchholz for instance since his leaving is tied to what what DD has picked up) too. 3 or more no way we are liable to 'win' that.

Check back in 15 years!

bagwell368
12-09-2016, 07:33 AM
As for Sale, he's an emotional guy coming into a media/fan base that's well more abrasive then what he dealt with in Chicago.

If his 2nd half stats last year are a sign of what's to come him and DD are going to be in for it in a major way.

Hopefuly everything will OK health wise with the SP, if so:

Sale
Porcello
Price
Wright
E-Rod

would be tough for an opposing team to get into a groove against. Putting both lefties together would be stupid, esp if left heavy teams miss them completely.

bagwell368
12-10-2016, 09:44 AM
I have to restate that thing about 40+ WAR players. If one of the kids we dealt is a 40-50 WAR career player it might still be break even, but it's two kids DD has moved since he got here hit that level, it would be bad.

bagwell368
12-10-2016, 09:48 AM
It's a 2-3 year window. We are going to lose 35-60% of the guys we have now coming onto the market for the first time 3-5 years out. We can fill out a few spots with FA's, but, a good sized crew of kids from the decent to the star level have to rise out of the sytem in the next 5 years, or we could end up being the Yankees circa 2013-2016. Yuck.

AI
12-11-2016, 05:37 PM
Dombrowski and Hahn had planned to touch base in the evening. To prepare for that conversation, Dombrowski asked VP of baseball research and development Zack Scott to prepare a study comparing Sale’s value with Moncada’s and Kopech’s.

“We did some analytical work on Sunday night for Monday, that if you look at the value of players, Chris Sale’s three years was not going to add up to [the value of having Moncada and Kopech under team contractual control for six big league seasons each],” said Dombrowski.

The conclusion wasn’t black and white — it was a close call based on the team’s internal evaluations of the prospects, close enough that it shouldn’t deter conversation..

:sigh:

papipapsmanny
12-11-2016, 09:42 PM
:sigh:

Except we know that Sale will probably be a 5+ WAR pitcher for the next three years.

Where as it is fun to project with Moncada/Kopech, but it is far from a guarantee that either of them puts up one 5+ WAR season in there careers.

redsox12
12-11-2016, 10:40 PM
Analytical thinking in running a team rarely pans out. For every prospect that pans out , ten doesn't. Look at Oakland and the "genius" Billy Beane. All that moneyball talk and sabremetics, and no championships, barely any playoff appearances.

j-bay
12-12-2016, 12:23 AM
:sigh:

I think he knew that. He said he wanted to compete though. Look who they would have to face in a potential ALCS and WS

Kluber
Carrasco
Salazar

Lester
Arrietta
Hendricks

You need a third good pitcher. And with market being so dry its hard to find anybody who can give you that kind of impact without giving up a lot. It could of been a lot worse, but Sale is the perfect fit. In his prime, nice contract.

RedSoxtober
12-12-2016, 09:47 AM
Except we know that Sale will probably be a 5+ WAR pitcher for the next three years.

Where as it is fun to project with Moncada/Kopech, but it is far from a guarantee that either of them puts up one 5+ WAR season in there careers.

At one time didn't you view Kopech as more valuable than both Espinoza and Groome? Seems like you favored him as the Sox top pitching prospect and didn't mind Espinoza being traded for what now appears to be a long man out of the bullpen who posted a below-league average ERA and horrendous HR/9 while in a Sox uniform. Meanwhile, how far did it get the Sox in the playoffs this year? Right, swept by the Indians.

Win-now, big-name trades don't always pan out either.

RedSoxtober
12-12-2016, 11:04 PM
Based on the most recent measurement available, 2016 performance, unless another top-flight starter switches teams before the start of the 2017 season, the Red Sox trio will rank as the best in the game. Using FanGraphs’ WAR from 2016, Porcello (5.2), Price (4.5) and Sale (5.2 with the White Sox) add up to a 14.9 WAR.

In 2016, the closest trio to 14.9 was the Giants at 13.0 WAR, with Johnny Cueto (5.5), Madison Bumgarner (4.9) and Jeff Samardzija (2.6). The Red Sox, with Porcello, Price and Steven Wright (2.8) were in a three-way tie for second-best WAR at 12.5. Also at 12.5 were the Mets (with Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon) and the Cubs (with Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta).

So that means Sale-Porcello-Price (S-P-P) project as the best trio in the game, at least until the 2017 season plays itself out.

But once you start to peer back into baseball history, it does not take long at all to find other teams that have outperformed that 14.9 combined WAR that the Sox trio will take into 2017.

The 2015 Cubs clocked in at 15.8 combined WAR with Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks and two seasons before that, when current Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski was with Detroit, he assembled a rotational top three of Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander that posted a 17.0 WAR.

Going back to 1986, 24 teams had their top three starters combine to post a WAR that exceeded the 14.9 S-P-P standard. Eight of every 10 seasons on average, a team has seen its top three starters post a better combined WAR than 14.9.

That’s quite often.

Just for fun, let’s use the peak WAR of their careers for Sale, Porcello and Price and pretend as if each of them is going to repeat that performance. Price leads the way with his 6.4 WAR of 2015, then it’s Sale at 6.2 (2015) and Porcello’s 5.2 from this year. That jacks up their total to 17.8, which still lands them only eighth out of that list of 24 teams. That’s not chopped liver, but it is a reminder that we all need to temper our hype when it comes to ranking this trio historically.Boston Herald

Based on 2016 performance the Sox' top 3 starters had the third best WAR? Seeing that the addition of Sale moves us up two pegs but not to a level of any historical note? This might lend some credence to my argument earlier that we made a move the equivalent of getting a "better" A.

Of the top 24 mentioned in the article, only two won WS (six more made it but lost)... but only 2 missed the playoffs. At least it's a comfort that we pretty much locked in our return to the playoffs.

AI
12-13-2016, 12:36 AM
Boston Herald

Based on 2016 performance the Sox' top 3 starters had the third best WAR? Seeing that the addition of Sale moves us up two pegs but not to a level of any historical note? This might lend some credence to my argument earlier that we made a move the equivalent of getting a "better" A.

Of the top 24 mentioned in the article, only two won WS (six more made it but lost)... but only 2 missed the playoffs. At least it's a comfort that we pretty much locked in our return to the playoffs.

I agree that our rotation improved but not as dramatically as some might think. Wright was pitching at close to an ace-level for most of the season before getting hurt running the bases. I also think, that we were going to get much better results from our pitching from the get-go than we did last year considering that Price had already gotten a full season in BOS under his belt and looked much better as the season progressed.

Porcello will probably come down a bit but I still expect a solid season out of him. The bullpen looks to be much improved as well. The wild card here is having both E-Rod and Pomeranz in the rotation from the start. There was already a decent chance that our pitching staff as a whole would improve. I think we put all our eggs into the pitching basket and are counting on a lot of guys with red flags to produce offensively.

Sandoval - Who knows what we get out of him
JBJ, Xander - Streakiest hitters I've ever seen
Pedroia - Can he keep it up or will the decline start?
Leon - Turned back into a pumpkin by seasons end
David Ortiz - Gone
Hanley - Will he repeat his 2016?
Benintendi - Pure hitter with an advanced approach but he has some growing pains he needs to experience

Betts is the only guy that I don't worry about in that lineup, Pedroia is the 2nd guy with his health playing a key factor in how he performs.

Think about it this way, before adding Sale I already thought that we were the best team in the AL East and that TOR/BAL would both take steps back. Best teams rarely ever win in the postseason anyways, or are you guys telling me that you thought CLE would sweep us without Carrasco, Salazar and Brantley? That Bauer/Tomlin would shut us down?

I think Moncada and Kopech would both be ready after midseason to provide value to this team. Moncada as an everyday player and Kopech out of the bullpen (due to probably reaching his innings limit). Overall, I think this trade will be a clear loss for us, the value Moncada and Kopech will provide CHI over a 6 year period will be significantly higher than what we'll get from Sale in his 3 years.

This is a trade that you make if Sale is the missing piece to the puzzle, but I'm not sure he is considering just how many question marks we have offensively and the fact that we also traded away all our depth. We better win it all, that's all I'm going to say.

AI
12-13-2016, 12:45 AM
You need a third good pitcher. And with market being so dry its hard to find anybody who can give you that kind of impact without giving up a lot. It could of been a lot worse, but Sale is the perfect fit. In his prime, nice contract.

Wasn't Pomeranz supposed to be this 3rd good SP? Or did we trade one of the best SP prospects in baseball for him to be our 5th starter or long-man out of the bullpen?

At some point, you've got to sit back and look at the moves for what they are. There was no clear plan. It's as if DD's father passed away, left him a huge inheritance (in the form of prospects and $) and he decided to blow his load on things he didn't need like buying 3 cars (Price, Pomeranz, Sale) and an electrical scooter (Kimbrel).

AI
12-13-2016, 12:57 AM
When he could have bought 2 cars. One for him (Price; $) and the other for his family (Sale; prospects) and built a skateboard using cheap materials (closer; saves is such an overrated statistic). The rest of the inheritance (prospects left over) he could have left in the bank account and received interests.

Overall, we've shipped out over 20 prospects (a lot of them were highly regarded) and I don't think we acquired anything of elite value besides Sale.

If I told you we'd trade Margot, Guerra, Espinoza, Kopech, Moncada, Basabe, Dubon, Shaw, Allen and others and all we got was Chris Sale, an overrated closer with an inflated BB/9, two RP's with injury concerns (Smith/Thornburg), a SP who benefited greatly from Petco for half a season then turned into a pumpkin (Pomeranz). Unless I'm forgetting something, the only clear wins right now DD are the Ziegler trade and the Chris Young signing. Nothing else.

j-bay
12-13-2016, 01:45 AM
Wasn't Pomeranz supposed to be this 3rd good SP? Or did we trade one of the best SP prospects in baseball for him to be our 5th starter or long-man out of the bullpen?

At some point, you've got to sit back and look at the moves for what they are. There was no clear plan. It's as if DD's father passed away, left him a huge inheritance (in the form of prospects and $) and he decided to blow his load on things he didn't need like buying 3 cars (Price, Pomeranz, Sale) and an electrical scooter (Kimbrel).

In my defense i was never on the Pomeranz train. I said keep your cards in hand until a good SP becomes avaliable.

I agree on Pomeranz. Kimbrel? We needed a good RP and Kimbrel was one of the best. I agree we overpaid, but there is still a chance he rebounds. Lets wait on Sale before we judge.

AI
12-13-2016, 02:28 PM
Yeah. I think my main problem can be resumed by this:

1) Overpaying
2) Quality of the return
3) Maximizing the current value of the players we send out

I can get behind the trades for Chris Sale, Ziegler, Carson Smith, even Thornburg.

You can make a case for Kimbrel, at that time, based on contract and what was available. Not saying I agree with what we paid for him, but at the very least you could argue that both Margot and Guerra were blocked.

Pomeranz deal really annoys the crap out of me though. Hopefully this is one of those cases where DD identify's a SP about to break out and it doesn't come back to bite us in the *** because the early returns haven't been good. FWIW, I'm still higher on Espinoza than I am on Kopech. Younger, effortless/repeatable delivery with plus stuff and his offspeed pitches grade out much higher as well (breaking ball & changeup).

papipapsmanny
12-13-2016, 11:04 PM
At one time didn't you view Kopech as more valuable than both Espinoza and Groome? Seems like you favored him as the Sox top pitching prospect and didn't mind Espinoza being traded for what now appears to be a long man out of the bullpen who posted a below-league average ERA and horrendous HR/9 while in a Sox uniform. Meanwhile, how far did it get the Sox in the playoffs this year? Right, swept by the Indians.

Win-now, big-name trades don't always pan out either.

Yeah I believe Kopech is better than Espinoza and had more value than Groome because Groome has to play more.

Espinoza was wildy overrated by people here. He is young and in Low A but putting up mediocre borderline poor numbers. He is pure projection and was traded in a 1-1 swap for an MLB player who was pitching like a 2.

What is your point? The trade is a fail because we didn't make it past the first round? I could argue we don't win the division maybe even miss the playoffs without pomeranz. He gave some quality starts, and provided much better production than Henry Owens or Sullivan? Every fifth day

Plus I'm not sure what the comparison is here? Pomeranz had less track record than Sale and and production fell off has he went into further past his season high in IP. Sale is Sale I'm quite comfortable predicting him to be a 5+ WAR pitcher for us barring injury.

j-bay
12-13-2016, 11:13 PM
Yeah. I think my main problem can be resumed by this:

1) Overpaying
2) Quality of the return
3) Maximizing the current value of the players we send out

I can get behind the trades for Chris Sale, Ziegler, Carson Smith, even Thornburg.

You can make a case for Kimbrel, at that time, based on contract and what was available. Not saying I agree with what we paid for him, but at the very least you could argue that both Margot and Guerra were blocked.

Pomeranz deal really annoys the crap out of me though. Hopefully this is one of those cases where DD identify's a SP about to break out and it doesn't come back to bite us in the *** because the early returns haven't been good. FWIW, I'm still higher on Espinoza than I am on Kopech. Younger, effortless/repeatable delivery with plus stuff and his offspeed pitches grade out much higher as well (breaking ball & changeup).

Agree on everything you said here. I don't think Pomeranz breaks out though. I hope he becomes at least a solid #4 pitcher with #3 type stats.

As for Sale in terms of the type of the starter we got. Sale would have been my 2nd best case scenario. Sadly my first case is no longer with us. RIP Jose. Looking at what pitchers might have been avaliable and what teams would have wanted i think we did well.

Verlander-Getting there in age not worth it.
Quintana-Not better than Sale, pretty close asking price.
Mets Pitchers besides Thor-Sandy doesn't seem interested in breaking up the rotation unless he gets a BIG deal. Maybe more than the Sale deal.
Archer-In the same division and Rays are asking for a big return. Pass.
Teheran-Braves wanted a big package that included one of Benny or Moncada. Not worth it and doubt they would have gotten off of that.
Gray-According to Sherman, the Braves recently asked about Gray. The A's didn't ask for Swanson, but the Braves found the price too high.
Greinke-Nope!

RedSoxtober
12-14-2016, 03:28 PM
Espinoza was wildy overrated by people here. He is young and in Low A but putting up mediocre borderline poor numbers. He is pure projection and was traded in a 1-1 swap for an MLB player who was pitching like a 2.
Whether or not people here overrated Espinoza is something of an afterthought because he was similarly "overrated" by the entire industry. I guess everyone else has got it wrong, eh? Be that as it may, his "overrated" position as the #2 pitching prospect in MLB had considerable value. And we spent that value for a guy who pitched like a #4/5 SP when he arrived. DD even had to trot out the Bannister's Grienke comparison to justify the deal because he saw Pomeranz as a projection. Now the same guy may be returning to the BP where he's had only marginal success.


What is your point? The trade is a fail because we didn't make it past the first round? I could argue we don't win the division maybe even miss the playoffs without pomeranz. He gave some quality starts, and provided much better production than Henry Owens or Sullivan? Every fifth day

Plus I'm not sure what the comparison is here? Pomeranz had less track record than Sale and and production fell off has he went into further past his season high in IP. Sale is Sale I'm quite comfortable predicting him to be a 5+ WAR pitcher for us barring injury.

My point is the last line of what I wrote: the "biggest name" available is not a guarantee of anything. We've dealt an overwhelming amount of prospect value for an handful of pitchers, all of whom came with elbow concerns. Dismissing them as "just prospects" misses the point of their value -- they're a commodity whose value many organizations have tried to project. And waiving the "barring injury" flag does not diminish the possibility of it -- just ask Carson Smith. In the end, there is less uncertainty about the impact of a MLB player coming back in trade than the prospects dealt but the uncertainty is not zero.

soxer04
12-15-2016, 03:02 AM
Love what DD has done. Before he came we were a last place team. Now - us and Cleveland are the two beasts. I'm not a fan of Kimbrel though-- but anyhow this trade was awesome. We now have 7 starters. Maybe you trade one. But anyhow our rotation is darn strong. And if Carson Smith comes back (June?) and is effective along with Thornburg- gonna enjoy my Sundays.

Really can't complain with what DD has done. I would like a nice rh bat alternative to Panda at 3b but don't have the money get quality there.

RedSoxtober
12-16-2016, 05:26 PM
Price wasn’t just the best starter available, he was the best starter available signed for three years (with maybe four more depending on his opt-out). Those two guys were going to be in Boston for the near term along with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, at least one of the Red Sox’s young catchers and Dustin Pedroia. But that wasn’t all. The team had a long-term plan with Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers, and a host of other youngsters on the way to Boston over the next half decade. The Red Sox could win now and later as the next wave was on the way to take the handoff. The Red Sox were set to dominate the American League over the next decade in a way not seen since the late-90s/early-aughts Yankee teams.

But long term isn’t Dave Dombrowski’s modus operandi, and in the end he couldn’t help himself. He saw the shiny toy dangled in front of him in Chris Sale, and he grabbed it. This isn’t to take anything away from Sale. He’s fantastic. He’ll probably be wonderful in Boston. But the Red Sox didn’t need him. They already had a very good rotation. In fact, it wasn’t difficult to squint and see the 2017 rotation ending up better than the 2016 rotation. Sure, Porcello takes a reasonable step back, but it’s offset by Price’s improvement. The Red Sox get a good season out of Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz is then a number three starter cast as the number four starter (and if he pitches more like the San Diego version of Pomeranz he’s a number two), and then the Red Sox have Steven Wright and Clay Buchholz to hold down the number five spot. That’s a very good rotation. Put that in front of the league’s leading offense (or something reasonably close to that) and watch the wins roll in. Chris Sale is fantastic, but the marginal value added by bringing him to Boston isn’t great.

...


The Red Sox are coming off 93 wins and a division title, and possess a young team headed into their prime and an amazing farm system set to bear fruit through the next decade. It all looked bright, so, so bright. This is THE set up. It’s what front offices strive to have. This is Theo’s wet dream.

This is why I can’t shake the oddness of the Sale deal. What’s the difference between what Sale brings and what the pitcher he bumps out of the rotation brings? Two wins? Three? You might argue more than that by saying, ‘Well what if Buchholz is just awful?” or “What if Wright is still hurt or can’t regain his first half of 2016 form?” and those are both reasonable questions individually, but here’s the thing. The Red Sox have both those guys! So the answer to the first question is move Buchholz and his one-year deal out of the rotation and put Wright in. The answer to the second question is move Wright out of the rotation and put Buchholz in. Point is, the floor for the fifth spot in the rotation was pretty high, say one-to-three wins above replacement. Removing those guys for Sale by trading your two best prospects (and two other valuable prospects as well) is an extreme move, and severely alters the long term plan and the farm system’s ability to supplement the major league team.

...


You don’t even have to go back to Price’s contract, though, because come to think of it, it’s also why the Sox dealt their best pitching prospect in Anderson Espinoza for Pomeranz at the deadline (and then didn’t rescind the deal when they had the chance after the Padres medical shenanigans were revealed). The Red Sox said they needed a starter (they did) and got the biggest name available at least in part because they liked that he was under contract for two more seasons beyond 2016. And then, after those two deals, they blew the hell out of the farm system for Chris Sale anyway. Oof.

That’s really the problem with many of these Dombrowski trades and signings. They’re fine in a vacuum, devoid of context. Is Chris Sale worth Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Luis Alexander Basabe? Yes. Is he worth it to a team that just paid David Price $200 million and traded Espinoza for Pomeranz? That’s a much different question. Baseball Prospectus (http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/14/chris-sale-is-a-luxury-the-red-sox-didnt-need/?s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter)

papipapsmanny
12-16-2016, 09:55 PM
I can agree with tha to an extentt, but I disagree that because of this we cannot dominate for the next decade. Not when you have Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, E-rod, benintendi, Swihart, and Vazquez at young ages.

Mix that with the fact that we have time to get other prospects while being dominant and the fact that Devers and Travis will very much be in the mix soon, with Groome already in the system. That window isn't gone at all.

If DD doesn't invest heavily in the draft and Int market over the next two years.... then we could run into a problem

sawxfan
12-17-2016, 01:14 AM
Baseball Prospectus (http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/14/chris-sale-is-a-luxury-the-red-sox-didnt-need/?s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter)

The middle section I couldn't disagree with more. Sure he may only be 3-4 wins above his replacement, but with Sale, you get a starter that has averaged 29 starts and 200 inning over the last 5 years. Assuming he stays at around those numbers, he saves an inning on using the bullpen every time you start him. This is huge over the span of the marathon of the 162 game season. Having a guy that can go 7-8 vs a starter that goes 5-6 will truly help out the pen.

I have no issues with the Sale deal.

soxer04
12-17-2016, 03:30 AM
The middle section I couldn't disagree with more. Sure he may only be 3-4 wins above his replacement, but with Sale, you get a starter that has averaged 29 starts and 200 inning over the last 5 years. Assuming he stays at around those numbers, he saves an inning on using the bullpen every time you start him. This is huge over the span of the marathon of the 162 game season. Having a guy that can go 7-8 vs a starter that goes 5-6 will truly help out the pen.

I have no issues with the Sale deal.

I'm with you. All you have to do is take a look at Madison Bum and see his WAR the past 3 years didn't even hit 15. Too much infatuation with WAR.

I think the 1st part for the person that wrote para 1 and para 2 sounds like a 10 year old that lost his favorite toy. HIS toys (the sox prospects) were going to shine over the next 10 years. Ten years? Gimme a break.

And as for para's 3 and 4 -- I've always disagreed with those so focused on WAR numbers but yet completely disregard playoff numbers. We' were supposedly going to dominate over the next 10 (as the different person that wrote the 1st two points out) because there's a projection that the young kids will hit well yet totally ignore what Price and Porcello have accomplished in the playoffs during their careers. Anyhow- para 3 and 4- I'm just amazed about this so assured that we were going to domnate for 10 years. Looking at WAR numbers as if it is an absolute truism yet as I mention above look at Madsion Bum's WAR numbers over the past 3 years and look at Lester. Neither hit 15 WAR.IMO it is obvious this is what we're hoping to strike with Sale. Sale can help the Red Sox secure at least home field advantage series. And I think it's worth the gamble to see what he might be in the playoffs. Price and Porcello have only proven that they struggle. Let someone else give it a try.

For the people that think we would have been dominant over the next 10 years then they should be confident to know that this year - with their belief that Price and Porcello would have carried them in terms of starting pitching- then they should have little worries. I do worry. But I can't blame a team "going for it." Many teams don't.

DD's moves have imo seen the big picture. I see this team being a w/s threat over the next 5 years if Sale (or Price or Porcello) can be a very effective starter. Juts as those who believed we were going to be good for decade and they realized the sox wouldn't be able to sign everybody (though they ignored that some prospects may fail and juts be average etc) so trades would be necessary. The same is going to happen to the Sox now.

AI
12-17-2016, 09:06 AM
Baseball Prospectus (http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/14/chris-sale-is-a-luxury-the-red-sox-didnt-need/?s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter)

Man this hit the nail right on the head. Exactly what I've been saying for a while now, especially that last part.

papipapsmanny
12-17-2016, 02:35 PM
Here is how I see it. Trade for Pomeranz.... good trade. A prospect in Low A for a SP pitching like a two, filled a need, team control for 2 more years.

Sale trade... fair trade for both.

Thornburg trade.... I liked it. Shaw's potential is what Moreland is. Dubon is a decent prospect with no play here.

The trade I don't like was for Kimbrell. Don't mind the player, but we got screwed value wise.

j-bay
12-18-2016, 07:54 PM
Don Cooper, White Sox Pitching Coach, talks about Sale

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/17/nick-cafardo-why-chris-sale-delivery-works-for-him/j5slTzAgR7miJUAsQoAgHM/story.html

RedSoxtober
12-19-2016, 10:59 AM
I can agree with tha to an extentt, but I disagree that because of this we cannot dominate for the next decade. Not when you have Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, E-rod, benintendi, Swihart, and Vazquez at young ages.
The players' ages are irrelevant unless you've got them under control... and we don't. Not only that, but we won't free up the money to sign them long term before they hit FA.


I'm with you. All you have to do is take a look at Madison Bum and see his WAR the past 3 years didn't even hit 15. Too much infatuation with WAR.
WAR wasn't mentioned ONCE in the excerpt posted. You brought it up. The point made by the writer was much simpler -- the Wright/Buchholz/Pomeranz guy getting bumped from the rotation is a 13-15 game winner (Wright won 13 even with all the time that he missed) and Sale is 16-18. Nothing to do with WAR.


DD's moves have imo seen the big picture. I see this team being a w/s threat over the next 5 years if Sale (or Price or Porcello) can be a very effective starter. Juts as those who believed we were going to be good for decade and they realized the sox wouldn't be able to sign everybody (though they ignored that some prospects may fail and juts be average etc) so trades would be necessary. The same is going to happen to the Sox now.
Except, as I said above, we don't have the team under control for that long. And now we no longer have any of their replacements except possibly Devers taking over for Sandoval eventually. The point of the "win for the next decade" statement was that we had high ceiling replacements progressing through the system to provide those reinforcements. Now we have a very expensive team that requires reinforcements from the FA market... but with no financial flexibility to get it. That's not how you dominate for a decade. Or even half a decade.


Here is how I see it. Trade for Pomeranz.... good trade. A prospect in Low A for a SP pitching like a two, filled a need, team control for 2 more years.
I'll never understand this perspective, honestly. You don't have to convince me. If you get the value argument with regard to Kimbrel then this just doesn't make sense. I'd guess it really goes to how you frame the guys. You consistently talk about Espinoza as a kid with okay numbers in low-A. You never talk about him as the second best pitching prospect in MLB as viewed by objective observers. Similarly, you call Pomeranz a guy who was pitching like a #2 at the time of the trade... but he had no track record to back it up and could very easily (likely?) regress to the point that his last few weeks in BOS represent what we bought. Currently, Pomeranz may be the best fit for the BP given his experience and the lack of LHP out there vs the excess in the rotation. Is the second best pitching prospect in MLB really worth only a BP piece? That's crap value.


Sale trade... fair trade for both.True, but the critique is not about one trade in isolation.


Thornburg trade.... I liked it. Shaw's potential is what Moreland is. Dubon is a decent prospect with no play here.False. Dubon was most likely to become what Holt was when he went to the ASG -- exceptional production from a super utility guy.


The trade I don't like was for Kimbrell. Don't mind the player, but we got screwed value wise.
Completely agree. Even while understanding the need we had for a CL I think that we overpaid. At best, DD was hoping to build the BP he never had in DET.

j-bay
12-19-2016, 11:18 AM
Baseball Prospectus (http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/14/chris-sale-is-a-luxury-the-red-sox-didnt-need/?s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter)

I agree and disagree with this. Did we need Sale. No. At the same time we do do need Sale for the playoffs. Espically if we got to face the Indians and Cubs. Maybe the Dodgers as well. If you plan on going to the World Series without Sale then you better have Wright as your #3. This did not seem to be the case though. According to JF, based on his comments the #3 would have been Pomeranz...UGH. Look i'm sorry i know a lot of you guys still have high hopes for the guy but i'm sorry i just can't see him being #3 in a ALCS or WS game without something really bad happening.

AI
12-19-2016, 11:24 AM
Yeah because that always works out... CLE beat us with Bauer and Tomlin in their rotation. The postseason is a crapshoot and we were likely to make it there without the Pomeranz trade last season and without the Sale trade this season. So, we mortgaged the future to slightly increase the odds, big whoop. We'll soon regret it.

j-bay
12-19-2016, 11:48 AM
Yeah because that always works out... CLE beat us with Bauer and Tomlin in their rotation. The postseason is a crapshoot and we were likely to make it there without the Pomeranz trade last season and without the Sale trade this season. So, we mortgaged the future to slightly increase the odds, big whoop. We'll soon regret it.

Look who Cleveland is getting back. Salazar and Carrasco. Big step up from Bauer and Tomlin.

By the way i wouldn't say we mortgaged the future on this trade. We also mortgaged the future on the other ones as well. Look i like Yoan Moncada. I do wish we could have kept him. At the same time i think Devers really got underated big time once Moncada came in. I think its not pushing it to say Devers could be just as good if not better. I look at Kopech. Look i know i said Kopech was a bust but that came out wrong. I was trying to make an arguement for Groome. Kopech has a chance to be really good. But there are still some red flags there. I still believe that despite Kopech's rise i still think Groome can and will be better.

AI
12-19-2016, 04:53 PM
Look who Cleveland is getting back. Salazar and Carrasco. Big step up from Bauer and Tomlin.

I don't care who they are getting back, the point I was trying to make flew right over your head. It doesn't matter if you have 3 aces and 7 closers in your bullpen and 9 Mike Trouts in your lineup... The postseason is a always a crapshoot with the best team hardly ever winning. We were, more than likely, going to win the AL East again this year without Sale and Pomeranz.



By the way i wouldn't say we mortgaged the future on this trade. We also mortgaged the future on the other ones as well. Look i like Yoan Moncada. I do wish we could have kept him. At the same time i think Devers really got underated big time once Moncada came in. I think its not pushing it to say Devers could be just as good if not better. I look at Kopech. Look i know i said Kopech was a bust but that came out wrong. I was trying to make an arguement for Groome. Kopech has a chance to be really good. But there are still some red flags there. I still believe that despite Kopech's rise i still think Groome can and will be better.

It's always the same thing since DD came in here. Oh, he traded Margot but it's cool since we still have "x player". Oh, he traded Espinoza but it's cool because we still have Kopech. Oh, he traded Moncada but it's cool because we still have Devers. Trust me, when you need everyday players at the big league level to replace the FA's and all the system is churning out are the Deven Marrero's of the world, don't say we didn't warn you.

papipapsmanny
12-19-2016, 09:16 PM
The players' ages are irrelevant unless you've got them under control... and we don't. Not only that, but we won't free up the money to sign them long term before they hit FA.


WAR wasn't mentioned ONCE in the excerpt posted. You brought it up. The point made by the writer was much simpler -- the Wright/Buchholz/Pomeranz guy getting bumped from the rotation is a 13-15 game winner (Wright won 13 even with all the time that he missed) and Sale is 16-18. Nothing to do with WAR.


Except, as I said above, we don't have the team under control for that long. And now we no longer have any of their replacements except possibly Devers taking over for Sandoval eventually. The point of the "win for the next decade" statement was that we had high ceiling replacements progressing through the system to provide those reinforcements. Now we have a very expensive team that requires reinforcements from the FA market... but with no financial flexibility to get it. That's not how you dominate for a decade. Or even half a decade.


I'll never understand this perspective, honestly. You don't have to convince me. If you get the value argument with regard to Kimbrel then this just doesn't make sense. I'd guess it really goes to how you frame the guys. You consistently talk about Espinoza as a kid with okay numbers in low-A. You never talk about him as the second best pitching prospect in MLB as viewed by objective observers. Similarly, you call Pomeranz a guy who was pitching like a #2 at the time of the trade... but he had no track record to back it up and could very easily (likely?) regress to the point that his last few weeks in BOS represent what we bought. Currently, Pomeranz may be the best fit for the BP given his experience and the lack of LHP out there vs the excess in the rotation. Is the second best pitching prospect in MLB really worth only a BP piece? That's crap value.

True, but the critique is not about one trade in isolation.

False. Dubon was most likely to become what Holt was when he went to the ASG -- exceptional production from a super utility guy.


Completely agree. Even while understanding the need we had for a CL I think that we overpaid. At best, DD was hoping to build the BP he never had in DET.

With Regards to control... come on we have plently of money coming off the books to start extending these guys. We have them under control already for various years depending on who we are talking about. You can about count on 3 of JBJ, Betts, Benentendi, Bogaerts and E-Rod being here in 3+ years if it comes down to extensions.

Espinoza is an 18 year old in LOW A. Second best SP prospect to "experts" but there is a huge amount of uncertainty with him and so much projection. People seemed to have forgotten that he isn't a sure thing, or even close to it actually. I never really start getting excited about prospects until they start producing good numbers at A+ for a large enough amount of time.

I understand that he was a top prospect, had to be if you are trading an 18 year old straight up for a guy who was pitching like a 2 (even though he hadn't before). That isn't bad value considering maybe that protected a package of specs from being traded (perhaps 1 or two that went to Chi for Sale).

RedSoxtober
12-20-2016, 10:44 AM
With Regards to control... come on we have plently of money coming off the books to start extending these guys. We have them under control already for various years depending on who we are talking about. You can about count on 3 of JBJ, Betts, Benentendi, Bogaerts and E-Rod being here in 3+ years if it comes down to extensions.
I think that you're missing the point of WHEN the money comes off the books. There's no significant money coming off the books until XB gets to FA. At that point the Sox are basically like every other team bidding for his services. Think that the Yankees wouldn't like to hit the daily double by replacing Gregorious with Bogaerts? There are zero guarantees beyond their club controlled years.


I understand that he was a top prospect, had to be if you are trading an 18 year old straight up for a guy who was pitching like a 2 (even though he hadn't before). That isn't bad value considering maybe that protected a package of specs from being traded (perhaps 1 or two that went to Chi for Sale).
I think that you see "not bad value" because of the way you frame the guys. You frame Pomeranz as a good value because he was "pitching like a 2"? Why wasn't he just a league average pitcher (ERA+ 103, 4.20 FIP, 107G/49GS) who happened to get on a good run while facing some mediocre NL lineups in a pitchers' park? Adjusted for the era, that's Tim Wakefield.