PDA

View Full Version : Rookie Profile: Jamal Murray



Bruno
11-27-2016, 07:46 PM
In the wake of injuries to Gary Harris and Will Barton, Jamal Murray is averaging 28.2 mpg over the last four games (UTA, CHI, UTA, OKC). With averages of 21.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 stock-pg, on a TS% of .66, w a 13 point positive differential between offensive and defensive rtg. These four game averages are akin to what he put up in Kentucky last year over 36 games, which is encouraging. This won't keep up w/out a roster shake up in Denver, but it was nice to see the production this early in the season when the opportunity presented itself. He's adjusted to the NBA three point line well, hitting at over 43% on more than four attempts per game this season.

This reminds me a bit of what happened with Devin Booker last year. Both players entered the league as 19 year old SG leaning combo guards from Kentucky, buried on their respective depth charts. In the case of Booker (youngest player in 2015 draft), the season long injuries to Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight put his development on the fast track. With those kinds of minutes he was able to compact a season and a half worth of development into one season. Murray most likley won't continue to have the minutes opportunities that Devin Booker did last season, but he should continue to develop at a rate that would put him on pace to be one of the better SG's drafted in the past six seasons. We have a 16 game sample size suggesting that despite early season struggles, Murray is pacing with other successful lottery SGs drafted this decade, in slightly fewer minutes. His per-36 averages are pacing near Thompson-Beal-Oladipo-Booker type rookie per-36's.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Jx5Jb

vs. CHI- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eagt0uwx11Y
vs. UTA- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lgrp0qM5Vc
vs. UTA- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0uE-Fc9zKk
vs. OKC- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMkVpNkfSkY

Three point accuracy seems to be Murrays most elite trait in comparison to other successful lottery SGs drafted this decade. He is blowing all other comparable rookies from the past out of the water, with the exception to Klay. Small sample size, but the tells are there. The reputation that Devin Booker has as an blossoming floor spreader doesn't seem to be backed by the three point percentages. Booker isn't an elite three point shooter, nor are his strengths catered to standing on the perimeter for catch and shoots. His style of play and statistical profile is more akin to Brandon Roy than it is Klay Thomspon. Their heads-up rookie comparison is similar, slight advantage to 22 year old Roy (significant age difference between Booker and Roy as rookies).

http://bkref.com/tiny/8LGEE

His control of the game is above average for his age. He seems to be capable of the mindfulness needed to shoot on an elite level, and to slow down the game as a player maker, although I think he's more of a SG if you can get away with it defensively. Mudiay at 6'5 might allow for that on most nights. From a Jacksonian/mindfulness perspective, he seems to have all the tools necessary to develop into an elite SG. It's possible that Steph Currys attention to mindfulness has had a positive impact on his ability to focus and slow down the game. He went to a float center with Harrison Barnes last season and they filmed the experience It displays a conscious effort to attack the game and player development from another angle, it seems as though Murray is on a similar path.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8IYV25T_WQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2NSB8nid24

How high are you guys on Jamal Murray? Are we observing the rookie season of a historically good shooter or should we expect him to dip down to mid 30%s by seasons end?

*I wrote out this post in the middle of the game and the four game averages mentioned in the opening paragraph don't include todays game against Phoenix, he was modest in 21 minutes with four fouls.

mngopher35
11-27-2016, 09:26 PM
I haven't watched him play much yet in the nba but I liked him as a prospect with his shooting/scoring. I didn't look into Dunn as much because I must have thought he would be gone but Murray was who I hoped for when I thought it was gonna between brown/bender/Murray/buddy at pick 5.

Bruno
11-27-2016, 09:50 PM
I haven't watched him play much yet in the nba but I liked him as a prospect with his shooting/scoring. I didn't look into Dunn as much because I must have thought he would be gone but Murray was who I hoped for when I thought it was gonna between brown/bender/Murray/buddy at pick 5.

Thibs selecting Dunn over the Murray, I think it was a profile decision. Ideally Dunn is a distributor/defender with a good enough three point shot. He's 22 and was supposed to be more NBA ready than Murray. Makes me think several things:

1) Thibs isn't interested in ever going small ball with Wiggins at PF. Wiggins is a poor rebounder and Thibs wants to run a tower with Dieng and KAT.
2) Since Wiggins is mostly at SF, Lavine is the SG, so why draft another SG.
3) If Thibs is going to go tower, he has to get floor spreading at the PG position, even if KAT and Dieng prove to be adequate from a distance.
4) Ultimately Thibs is defensive guy who doesn't play young players big minutes, which eliminates Buddy and Murray for one reason or another or both.
5) Thibs saw Dunn as NBA ready defender and hopes he can become a better shooter than Rubio.

I could see how Dunn puts them in a better place to continue to play big because he's a PG, drafting a true PG puts Lavine at SG and Wiggins at SF, right where Thibs wants them to get most of their minutes. Murray would have been the selection if Thibs was interested in playing small. Rubio/Murray/Lavine/Wiggins/Towns. thats an interesting small ball line up. Seems to me that Thibs didn't see any reason to have faith in a defensively questionable young core to play out of position and it's hard to blame him given his principals, but the upside could be there. It's too early to say with any of the rookies but I dont think Minny will regret Dunn over Murray as much as New Orleans will regret Buddy over Murray.

mngopher35
11-27-2016, 10:42 PM
Thibs selecting Dunn over the Murray, I think it was a profile decision. Ideally Dunn is a distributor/defender with a good enough three point shot. He's 22 and was supposed to be more NBA ready than Murray. Makes me think several things:

1) Thibs isn't interested in ever going small ball with Wiggins at PF. Wiggins is a poor rebounder and Thibs wants to run a tower with Dieng and KAT.
2) Since Wiggins is mostly at SF, Lavine is the SG, so why draft another SG.
3) If Thibs is going to go tower, he has to get floor spreading at the PG position, even if KAT and Dieng prove to be adequate from a distance.
4) Ultimately Thibs is defensive guy who doesn't play young players big minutes, which eliminates Buddy and Murray for one reason or another or both.
5) Thibs saw Dunn as NBA ready defender and hopes he can become a better shooter than Rubio.

I could see how Dunn puts them in a better place to continue to play big because he's a PG, drafting a true PG puts Lavine at SG and Wiggins at SF, right where Thibs wants them to get most of their minutes. Murray would have been the selection if Thibs was interested in playing small. Rubio/Murray/Lavine/Wiggins/Towns. thats an interesting small ball line up. Seems to me that Thibs didn't see any reason to have faith in a defensively questionable young core to play out of position and it's hard to blame him given his principals, but the upside could be there. It's too early to say with any of the rookies but I dont think Minny will regret Dunn over Murray as much as New Orleans will regret Buddy over Murray.

I agree with most of this but I don't think Murray means we end up forced to play small, he would be our future pg and currently our backup pg/sg depending on how Thibs played it. From what i can tell of our offense so far we are using Ricky to space more instead of distribute so Murray fits really well offensively as the pg in that role (spacing it out for that trio instead of leaving a defender loose to help like they have been off Rubio).

However as you mentioned the reason we took Dunn is due to valuing the defense and him being considered nba ready. The goal is to still get the defense from pg but hoping Dunn can not be a liability scoring the ball/shooting as you said like Rubio. Murray definitely would have his own questions trying to eventually play pg but given what I have seen of his skill set offensively and what we have been asking of our pgs he would fit very well. Defense would suffer but it's not like we have been stopping other pg's with Rubio/Dunn so far anyways. Tyus has actually been the most impressive/talked about pg in MN so far probably from the fans perspective and it is because he can shoot the ball while the other two can't really and hurt our offense being used as spacers (way to small of a sample/weak context to have value but his rpm, per, ws/48, bpm are all above Rubio/Dunn and imo it comes down to fit and what we have been asking of the pg).

So I agree with most of what you said but I think Murray would have been an alright fit for us at pg not making us need to go small. The issue of course would then be defense and it makes sense to want to have defenders more than spacers next to our trio probably so no complaints from me. I just also think if Dunn hadn't been there Murray would be a good choice and could make us an elite offense in the future taking over at pg in our system.

Bruno
11-27-2016, 11:33 PM
From what i can tell of our offense so far we are using Ricky to space more instead of distribute so Murray fits really well offensively as the pg in that role (spacing it out for that trio instead of leaving a defender loose to help like they have been off Rubio).
His assist rate is 8% under his career average. thats interesting, that makes me think the decision was that he didn't want Murray for defensive reasons.


However as you mentioned the reason we took Dunn is due to valuing the defense and him being considered nba ready. The goal is to still get the defense from pg but hoping Dunn can not be a liability scoring the ball/shooting as you said like Rubio.
I think this makes sense the only question is what do you try to get in return for Rubio if youre the FO. The Wolves are good enough to develop Dunn and still establish a winning culture, if not a winning record. I think its a huge waste of time/opportunity to hold on both for an extended period of time. are you hoping for Rubio trade? I like Jones as a backup.


Murray definitely would have his own questions trying to eventually play pg but given what I have seen of his skill set offensively and what we have been asking of our pgs he would fit very well.
Despite his career low numbers in AST%, Rubio still doubles Murray in AST%. As a freshman Murray had an AST% of 12.1. As a rookie its at 15.1 so the intention seems to be there and there's room for improvement. In the context of how Rubio is being used, I could see Murray fitting fine and not necessarily incentivizing the Wolves into a small ball line up as PG, but it seems Thibs was worried about defending other PGs out west. After what you said about Rubio I think its all defense.


Defense would suffer but it's not like we have been stopping other pg's with Rubio/Dunn so far anyways.
Rubio was a lot better at limiting other PGs last year. whats with the drop off?


Tyus has actually been the most impressive/talked about pg in MN so far probably from the fans perspective and it is because he can shoot the ball while the other two can't really and hurt our offense being used as spacers (way to small of a sample/weak context to have value but his rpm, per, ws/48, bpm are all above Rubio/Dunn and imo it comes down to fit and what we have been asking of the pg).
So if Tyus is getting minutes we'd have to assume that Murray would do well in the role that Tyus and Dunn share, unless Thibs just benched him for poor defense.


So I agree with most of what you said but I think Murray would have been an alright fit for us at pg not making us need to go small. The issue of course would then be defense and it makes sense to want to have defenders more than spacers next to our trio probably so no complaints from me. I just also think if Dunn hadn't been there Murray would be a good choice and could make us an elite offense in the future taking over at pg in our system.

I guess from Thibs pov, he isn't a good fit if he compromises the defense. He could have figured that they already had all the offense in the world with Towns, Wiggins and Lavine and that defense was what he wants out of Dunn.

Miltstar
11-27-2016, 11:36 PM
Murray already declared himself "one of the best scorers in the league" this really isn't a huge surprise to me, it's the rest of his game that needs work.... Canada is gonna have a legit National team pretty soon if they all play

Bruno
11-27-2016, 11:38 PM
Murray already declared himself "one of the best scorers in the league" this really isn't a huge surprise to me, it's the rest of his game that needs work.... Canada is gonna have a legit National team pretty soon

thats true. what's the projected 2020 starting line up for Canada?

Miltstar
11-27-2016, 11:50 PM
thats true. what's the projected 2020 starting line up for Canada?

I don't know who all is going to declare but we could have a lineup that looks something like this

Corey Joseph/Jamal Murray/Andrew Wiggins/Tristan Thompson/Kelly Olynyk
Tyler Ennis/Nik Stauskas/Andrew Nicholson/Anthony Bennett/Joel Anthony
Shai Alexander/Trey Lyles/Thon Maker

mngopher35
11-28-2016, 12:02 AM
His assist rate is 8% under his career average. thats interesting, that makes me think the decision was that he didn't want Murray for defensive reasons.

Ya that is my thoughts too


I think this makes sense the only question is what do you try to get in return for Rubio if youre the FO. The Wolves are good enough to develop Dunn and still establish a winning culture, if not a winning record. I think its a huge waste of time/opportunity to hold on both for an extended period of time. are you hoping for Rubio trade? I like Jones as a backup.

I wasn't at first but if we plan to use him off ball so much and he can't impact the game like he did last year then I would say ya we gotta trade him sooner rather than later. I too like Jones as a backup but wanted to keep Rubio because I thought we would be a little better and Dunn would need time to learn (that last part seems true still but if not competing less of an issue). At this point I am fine with a trade but am not 100% sure what the best target would be, probably a defensive big man and have Dieng as our big off the bench.


Despite his career low numbers in AST%, Rubio still doubles Murray in AST%. As a freshman Murray had an AST% of 12.1. As a rookie its at 15.1 so the intention seems to be there and there's room for improvement. In the context of how Rubio is being used, I could see Murray fitting fine and not necessarily incentivizing the Wolves into a small ball line up as PG, but it seems Thibs was worried about defending other PGs out west. After what you said about Rubio I think its all defense.

Yup I liked Murrays all around offensive game and think he could be a pg or sg in todays nba depending on what is being asked. He may not become a great or amazing distributor but capable for the position while his shooting/scoring provide the "elite" value hopefully. Defense will be the biggest issue for him probably no matter what but it could be exposed more if he guards pg's I would guess.



Rubio was a lot better at limiting other PGs last year. whats with the drop off?

Hopefully a small sample size and we rotate more so there have been some holes where rubio leads into where defenders should have been but instead its a layup. I haven't noticed anything drastic with him individually but he is still weak on screens and gambles a bit much at times (with less of a payout this year).


So if Tyus is getting minutes we'd have to assume that Murray would do well in the role that Tyus and Dunn share, unless Thibs just benched him for poor defense.

I think he would. Like I said the lack of shooting seems to be a bigger deal than before from our pg position due to the role so Murray fits that.



I guess from Thibs pov, he isn't a good fit if he compromises the defense. He could have figured that they already had all the offense in the world with Towns, Wiggins and Lavine and that defense was what he wants out of Dunn.

I think it had to have been his goal given our 3 stars are all offensive players who need to work on defense. I think most people at draft time thought it made the most sense as well which is why despite not knowing much on Dunn I never complained. I just personally had watched Kentucky some and liked Murray's skill set coming out.

Bruno
11-28-2016, 12:02 AM
I don't know who all is going to declare but we could have a lineup that looks something like this

Corey Joseph/Jamal Murray/Andrew Wiggins/Tristan Thompson/Kelly Olynyk
Tyler Ennis/Nik Stauskas/Andrew Nicholson/Anthony Bennett/Joel Anthony
Shai Alexander/Trey Lyles/Thon Maker

Thon Maker, that could be huge. A Lyles/Maker front line could be a pretty impressive combination by then. Seems like the team is one wing away from being a major problem for team USA, assuming everyone pans out. This core is young enough to compete in 2024 too.

STRIKERC
12-01-2016, 11:04 AM
I don't know who all is going to declare but we could have a lineup that looks something like this

Corey Joseph/Jamal Murray/Andrew Wiggins/Tristan Thompson/Kelly Olynyk
Tyler Ennis/Nik Stauskas/Andrew Nicholson/Anthony Bennett/Joel Anthony
Shai Alexander/Trey Lyles/Thon Maker

Maker is Australian, buddy. He simply went to school in Canada to circumvent the one year college rule.