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kdspurman
11-11-2016, 03:43 PM
Friday November 11th, 2016



Pacers @ 76ers
7:00PM


Cavs @ Wizards
7:00PM


Raptors @ Hornets
7:00PM


Jazz @ Magic
7:00PM


Knicks @ Celtics
7:30PM


Clippers @ Thunder
8:00PM
NBATV


Pistons @ Spurs
8:30PM


Kings @ Trailblazers
10:30PM

Chronz
11-11-2016, 05:12 PM
Clips gon wreck the Thunder. Vegas predictably changed the line in the wake of LAC's recent dominance. Not sure if its worth betting in terms of value but Im so confident in todays rematch after losing their only game to that team. They will be motivated and they have a better offensive flow going.

Raps at Cha is a decent deal if you're a Raps believer and can see the writing on the wall for Charlotte. Charlotte barely favored but if you handicap it you can make some decent change.


Anyone see any upsets going on today? Magic vs Jazz is interesting, Jazz likely to win but if Orlando can squeeze one out its a big pay off and that seems more realistic to me than any other matchup

Chronz
11-11-2016, 05:24 PM
**** it, throwing 40 down on the Sixers finally winning tonight since yall prolly too busy going out tonight.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 08:06 PM
Im here chronz. Another fellow gambler.

I dropped the following:

Jazz -1 1st Q (-120)

Pacers -1.5 1st Q (-125)

Chronz
11-11-2016, 08:11 PM
never done single quarter bets, havent even parlayed this year. Im keeping it safe so far

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 08:18 PM
never done single quarter bets, havent even parlayed this year. Im keeping it safe so far

I've stayed away from parlays this year as well. Usually do it when i have a little more $ in my account.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 08:36 PM
Feelsgoodman :)

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 08:49 PM
Chronz, how confident are you in Clips -1.5 1Q (-115)

Vee-Rex
11-11-2016, 09:00 PM
I'd pick any team over Cleveland right now. This team is asleep.

Chronz
11-11-2016, 09:08 PM
Chronz, how confident are you in Clips -1.5 1Q (-115)
As I said, I've never bet that way so I have zero confidence. To really know that **** you would have to know the team intimately against the league per quarter.

Like thus far the only quarter data I know is that the T'Wolves turn into an entirely different team come 3rd quarter. Either that or the opposition starts to take these guys seriously.

Chronz
11-11-2016, 09:10 PM
I was scared for a minute when the Pacers went on that run without PG but at the half its a 1 pt game. Plz squeeze this out Philly.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 09:17 PM
Since you didn't respond in time i didnt place it. I bet Celtics -3.5 1H tho

AI
11-11-2016, 09:34 PM
Celtics with 24 FTA's.... IN THE FIRST ****ING HALF.

Knicks with only 3.

Vee-Rex
11-11-2016, 09:36 PM
Celtics with 24 FTA's.... IN THE FIRST ****ING HALF.

Knicks with only 3.

:laugh2:

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 09:38 PM
Celtics with 24 FTA's.... IN THE FIRST ****ING HALF.

Knicks with only 3.

Not watching the game, but love it lmao.

Vee-Rex
11-11-2016, 09:38 PM
The Morris brothers are our fathers. No matter which one it is, they always have career games against us.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 09:46 PM
Live bet. Took clippers @ +6.5 1st Half. Currently down 25-32

tredigs
11-11-2016, 09:50 PM
Alright Sixers. Hold> A > Lead.

Saddletramp
11-11-2016, 09:53 PM
Do it for chronz!!!

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 09:57 PM
Yea, GL chronz.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 09:58 PM
Roberson hitting 3s is ****in tilting me.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:00 PM
Tie game, leetttttss goo clips. 2:08 to go, hold on to that ****!

tredigs
11-11-2016, 10:01 PM
Pretty sure this is the 4th or 5th Sixers 4th quarter lead I've seen this year. They really should have a few wins by now.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:02 PM
Redick! That's it. :dance:

tredigs
11-11-2016, 10:03 PM
As expected, Dipo and Reddick the stars of the show in OKC tonight...

tredigs
11-11-2016, 10:05 PM
Redick! That's it. :dance:

Great bet, that was a hell of a line you scored. My casino has in-play, but not 1st H in play. Trying to avoid online accounts.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:06 PM
Great bet, that was a hell of a line you scored. My casino has in-play, but not 1st H in play. Trying to avoid online accounts.

Appreciate it.

Why is that? Uncle Sam?

tredigs
11-11-2016, 10:08 PM
Appreciate it.

Why is that? Uncle Sam?

Well I mean since I have access to betting so easily, there's no point in complicating the matter.

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:13 PM
Joel the god Embiid. Now I can leave

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:13 PM
Well I mean since I have access to betting so easily, there's no point in complicating the matter.

I see, still sent you a PM just in case lmao.

dhopisthename
11-11-2016, 10:16 PM
This Jazz-Magic game is pretty brutal. some Good defense, but realistically so many missed shots.

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:16 PM
The ****ing goat process baby

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:17 PM
God mode joel

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:18 PM
Joel is god like on both ends... I SO HAPPY

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:18 PM
**** it. Clips -1.5 3rd Q (-120)

Lets go!

AI
11-11-2016, 10:19 PM
This Knicks vs Celtics game is the worst game I've ever seen officiated. Absolutely horrible.

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:24 PM
where was that foul... **** YOU REFS

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:25 PM
ahahahahahah ****ing joke.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:26 PM
Roberson, are you ****in kidding me?! He's like 30th team all offense.. what a joke.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:28 PM
Tech on Russ, **** yea. Lets go clips!

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:30 PM
Redick! "BINGO!" lets go!

tredigs
11-11-2016, 10:31 PM
That was the most Sixers **** ever to turn the ball over with the ball/lead with 20 seconds to go, then FOUL Paul George when he's 30 feet away from the hoop with 2 seconds left. Smh. OT we go, and this generally does not end well for the Sixers.

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:33 PM
embiid said I am playing... Coaching staff said nope... Embiid is so pissed.

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:41 PM
Joooooooooooooooooooojooooooooooooooooo

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:45 PM
Once again, Thank you Clips! :)

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:45 PM
We about to win baby... THE PROCESS IS STRONG

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:46 PM
Anybody know what the ML was for 76ers?

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 10:48 PM
our crowd would take a ****ing bullet for embiid... THEY LOVE HIM

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 10:50 PM
This one might be stupid but **** it. Spurs -4.5 3rd Q (-115). Currently HT.

tredigs
11-11-2016, 10:53 PM
There you go Sixers - good stuff.

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 11:03 PM
Go Spurs Go!

NYKnickFanatic
11-11-2016, 11:11 PM
Did Okafor get hurt? Only 3 mins?

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 11:14 PM
Spurs cover, win the 3rd by 11 :)

Chronz
11-11-2016, 11:15 PM
DJ is shook this year. His thumb is a big issue for his game. **** maybe his health in general for such a perceived iron man

More-Than-Most
11-11-2016, 11:18 PM
Did Okafor get hurt? Only 3 mins?

no.. He wasnt suppose to play tonight... Embiid got into foul trouble early as did our backup so he came in for a few minutes... Embiid cant play in back to backs... Oka will be needed for tomorrows game.

NYKnickFanatic
11-11-2016, 11:20 PM
no.. He wasnt suppose to play tonight... Embiid got into foul trouble early as did our backup so he came in for a few minutes... Embiid cant play in back to backs... Oka will be needed for tomorrows game.

Oh ok, thanks.

Chronz
11-11-2016, 11:29 PM
I so badly wanted to take Toronto instead of the sixers but it's good to know both were on the right track. Parlay next time

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 11:36 PM
Russ with that Kobe shot selection tho. Only down 2 and you go for a GW 3? Lmao.

Chronz
11-11-2016, 11:40 PM
Russ with that Kobe shot selection tho. Only down 2 and you go for a GW 3? Lmao.

2 of my wins were narrow victories. I'm gonna have a heart attack. Had i bet on toronto like i wanted i would've officially been the luckiest man on the planet but i couldn't do it cuz i lost my last for sure win

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 11:46 PM
2 of my wins were narrow victories. I'm gonna have a heart attack. Had i bet on toronto like i wanted i would've officially been the luckiest man on the planet but i couldn't do it cuz i lost my last for sure win

Damn, yea hahaha. Still a winner tonight tho.

So was I.

Wins:

1. Basketball - NBA - Race To 15.0

Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs

Detroit Pistons - L4Q +150

2. Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs - L3Q -4.5 (-115)

3. Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Los Angeles Clippers - L3Q -1.5 (-120

4. Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Los Angeles Clippers - L1H 6.5 (-125)

5. New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics - L1H -3.5 (-115)

6. Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic

Utah Jazz - 1Q -1.0 (-120)

7. Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Indiana Pacers - 1Q -1.5 (-125)

Losses:

1. Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Indiana Pacers +160

2. Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder +340

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 11:47 PM
Lucky *** night. I better stop for tonight before the law of averages catches up.

here's my last one of the night.

Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers - L2Q -1.5 (-115)

Chronz
11-11-2016, 11:51 PM
That's ocd level gambling bro. I suggest you get help. The First step is feeding me all your insight and letting go

Lakers + Giants
11-11-2016, 11:54 PM
That's ocd level gambling bro. I suggest you get help. The First step is feeding me all your insight and letting go

Lmfao, probably is. I wish i had the balls to place high bets tho. All of those are around 10 buck bets haha.

Chronz
11-12-2016, 12:05 AM
https://streamable.com/crz2

Finest dime in OKC history right there

Lakers + Giants
11-12-2016, 12:10 AM
Yea, that's nice.

Did u see Roberson trying to **** me over tho? ....

Miltstar
11-12-2016, 12:14 AM
I just watched the Raps/Hornets game and wow what a game it was! Back and forth the whole way, that Hornets team just fires away, Raps showing their resiliancy and pulling out a gritty win. Derozan looking like a legit 30 PPG scorer

Lakers + Giants
11-12-2016, 12:14 AM
Add another lose. -1.5 and portland only wins the 2nd by 1. ****!

**** it, that's where the night ends for me.

More-Than-Most
11-12-2016, 02:10 AM
https://streamable.com/crz2

Finest dime in OKC history right there

lol for some reason I thought you were about to show a really hot looking woman in the crowd xD

Pfeifer
11-12-2016, 01:12 PM
Holy crap Athe Hornets are resiliant and Kemba looks like Iverson out there. Great battle between him and Lowry. Also Powell is turning into a great defender. He was glued on Batum in the fourth.

R!kSm!tz
11-12-2016, 07:15 PM
The Bulls have a net rating of +32 with Jimmy and Wade on the floor together without Rondo. I'm hoping to see some of that tonight.

Chronz
11-12-2016, 07:55 PM
3 team parlay today, spurs win, clips win and some other team i havent fingered yet. friends are split on lakers vs pels

Chronz
11-12-2016, 08:08 PM
**** we went with the lakers-spurs-clips(EDIT) lol forgot I threw the raps in there too.

massive payout

still contemplating going with the Grizz

Chronz
11-12-2016, 08:25 PM
Suns-Jazz-Nuggs-Hawks and _____ really need that 5th team

Lakers + Giants
11-12-2016, 08:38 PM
bulls should be the 5th team

Chronz
11-12-2016, 08:43 PM
got 3 different parlays going out, if the Lakers lose this first game Im making a small one with the spurs-clips.

My other one is going with the favorites in jazz-hawks-Nuggs and suns then another with the same team only added Milwaukee losing to Memphis without Tony Allen and Parsons. If for no other reason than because it really ups the bet and if the previous 4 team wins its of no risk.

Lakers + Giants
11-12-2016, 08:45 PM
I just went with 1st Half spreads. Good luck :cheers:

kdspurman
11-12-2016, 09:35 PM
Rockets announcers accusing Pop of talking to the refs which is why Harden's not getting calls haha. Great stuff

Lakers + Giants
11-12-2016, 10:15 PM
6-4... this team continues to impress me. So proud of the youngsters. Baby Lakers :speechless:

Chronz
11-12-2016, 10:20 PM
Everything going as planned but if the nuggets lose there go two of my bets

PurpleLynch
11-12-2016, 10:22 PM
Lakers 6-4,excellent. Tomorrow big game against the Twolves,it will be a pretty test for both teams.

kdspurman
11-12-2016, 10:39 PM
Spurs first game with their #FullSquad... looking pretty good thus far

Chronz
11-12-2016, 11:26 PM
Spurs first game with their #FullSquad... looking pretty good thus far

meh lookin pretty pedestrian to me

kdspurman
11-13-2016, 12:09 AM
meh lookin pretty pedestrian to me

You probly tuned in towards the end. Had like an 18 point lead while on a b2b btw, until Gordon went nuts and hit like 7 3s. 2nd half was worse, but held them to 40 first half points.. But yea... pedestrian I guess :shrug:

Chronz
11-13-2016, 12:21 AM
You probly tuned in towards the end. Had like an 18 point lead while on a b2b btw, until Gordon went nuts and hit like 7 3s. 2nd half was worse, but held them to 40 first half points.. But yea... pedestrian I guess :shrug:

Slightly above average is the best I would give such a lapse. Different standards, games aren't over that quickly Im afraid.

kdspurman
11-13-2016, 12:32 AM
Slightly above average is the best I would give such a lapse. Different standards, games aren't over that quickly Im afraid.

Welp, that's your opinion lol.. like I said, considering the circumstances, they played well.

I made that comment when they had a big lead and were clicking. So there's that

Chronz
11-13-2016, 12:39 AM
Welp, that's your opinion lol.. like I said, considering the circumstances, they played well.

I made that comment when they had a big lead and were clicking. So there's that
Yeah that's kind of what people do here, we exchange opinions and considering the circumstances, i wasn't impressed. Just par for the course by my higher standards

kdspurman
11-13-2016, 12:51 AM
Yeah that's kind of what people do here, we exchange opinions and considering the circumstances, i wasn't impressed. Just par for the course by my higher standards

Did you watch the whole game?

Sadds The Gr8
11-13-2016, 02:57 AM
Add another lose. -1.5 and portland only wins the 2nd by 1. ****!

**** it, that's where the night ends for me.


got 3 different parlays going out, if the Lakers lose this first game Im making a small one with the spurs-clips.

My other one is going with the favorites in jazz-hawks-Nuggs and suns then another with the same team only added Milwaukee losing to Memphis without Tony Allen and Parsons. If for no other reason than because it really ups the bet and if the previous 4 team wins its of no risk.

woah...there's gambling talk in here? I'll be posting in this thread more often

Lakers + Giants
11-13-2016, 03:39 AM
woah...there's gambling talk in here? I'll be posting in this thread more often

My boy, what up STG

tredigs
11-13-2016, 12:01 PM
Speaking of gambling talk, Thibs dumb *** playing hack-a-jordan for minutes on end down 10-15 (when he was hitting them) screwed me off an under pretty bad. Congrats Thibs, you managed to prolong the game 10 minutes and ruin all feel for "basketball" in order to lose by 14 instead of 16. Pretty funny when you could see CP3 just look at Towns and go "What the **** are you guys doing?". I couldn't agree more.

aman_13
11-13-2016, 12:34 PM
Minny or LA?

I like every home team but not sure about this game.

Giannis94
11-13-2016, 12:52 PM
Nice to see Dwight Howard has returned to form

Miltstar
11-13-2016, 01:36 PM
Minny or LA?

I like every home team but not sure about this game.

T-Wolves due to blow up any game now but I can't go against the Lakers here. Rubio is out and Dunn ain't ready! the PG situation needs to be stabalized there before I have any faith in them. I say LA pretty easily, they are a complicated team because their youngsters are insanely talented but their vets are doing most of the heavy lifting. I kinda like what they got going over there after being skeptical originally. I don't seem them going deep in the playoffs, but I could see them getting there!

Lakers + Giants
11-13-2016, 05:43 PM
Minny or LA?

I like every home team but not sure about this game.

I hope im wrong but i think Minny.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 05:48 PM
This game is an example of why +/- stats are crap.

Kyrie is playing well on both ends. Yet, the Cavs gave up 6 offensive rebounds while LeBron was sitting and the Hornets are blazing contested shots. Cavs missing open shots.

When LeBron was playing and Kyrie sitting because of foul trouble, the Hornets were missing open shots and LeBron lazy on defense.

Kyrie has 12 points (5/7) 3 assists 0 rebounds 0 turnovers. -6

Bron 4 points (2/8) 3 assists 6 rebounds 3 turnovers. +6

Luck is the leading factor (not the only obviously, just leading) in +/- calculations.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 05:55 PM
Btw Dunleavy is CRAP. Lue needs to play Jordan McCrae.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 06:03 PM
I think MKG is locking up LeBron this game. He can't finish, he can't shoot, and every shot looks difficult. He's having bad lapses in defense and he's failing to run back on defense because he's whining for calls.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 06:43 PM
Well LeBron took over in the 4th.

tredigs
11-13-2016, 06:43 PM
This game is an example of why +/- stats are crap.

Kyrie is playing well on both ends. Yet, the Cavs gave up 6 offensive rebounds while LeBron was sitting and the Hornets are blazing contested shots. Cavs missing open shots.

When LeBron was playing and Kyrie sitting because of foul trouble, the Hornets were missing open shots and LeBron lazy on defense.

Kyrie has 12 points (5/7) 3 assists 0 rebounds 0 turnovers. -6

Bron 4 points (2/8) 3 assists 6 rebounds 3 turnovers. +6

Luck is the leading factor (not the only obviously, just leading) in +/- calculations.
No, not at all. Especially when you get into regulated/adjusted +/-

You're looking at a half game sample size. No **** you're going to get wonky results. Gotta go year by year.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 06:52 PM
No, not at all. Especially when you get into regulated/adjusted +/-

You're looking at a half game sample size. No **** you're going to get wonky results. Gotta go year by year.

Year by year RPM stats are less about luck but they're still plagued by issues such as team rotations and scheming.

It's a flawed stat if used as a primary stat for sure, especially for non-primary option players.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 06:56 PM
Basically if you have Lillard as the primary option on the Blazers, his RPM will be higher than if he was a secondary option on MJ's Bulls and had his minutes staggered with Jordan's.

RPM is flawed and context is the reason I never use it in any argument when comparing 2 players. Different teams, styles, rotations, tempo, etc... have too much impact.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 07:09 PM
Speaking of gambling talk, Thibs dumb *** playing hack-a-jordan for minutes on end down 10-15 (when he was hitting them) screwed me off an under pretty bad. Congrats Thibs, you managed to prolong the game 10 minutes and ruin all feel for "basketball" in order to lose by 14 instead of 16. Pretty funny when you could see CP3 just look at Towns and go "What the **** are you guys doing?". I couldn't agree more.
Yeah dj was bound to progress towards the mean given his abysmal start, even by his standards

Stunner
11-13-2016, 08:00 PM
The media isn't giving Jimmy Butler more credit , I think he's starting to enter that star tier now

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:08 PM
This game is an example of why +/- stats are crap.

Kyrie is playing well on both ends. Yet, the Cavs gave up 6 offensive rebounds while LeBron was sitting and the Hornets are blazing contested shots. Cavs missing open shots.

When LeBron was playing and Kyrie sitting because of foul trouble, the Hornets were missing open shots and LeBron lazy on defense.

Kyrie has 12 points (5/7) 3 assists 0 rebounds 0 turnovers. -6

Bron 4 points (2/8) 3 assists 6 rebounds 3 turnovers. +6

Luck is the leading factor (not the only obviously, just leading) in +/- calculations.

Nah, random noise happens throughout the season in every statistic. This is akin to saying Offensive/Defensive efficiency are irrelevant because a great defense can give up more pts simply as a result of "luck", the idea of tracking statistics is to examine season long trends and to see if they show in the statistics. You screaming about the flaws of any single statistic of a laughably small sample size with very little analysis only exposes your own ignorance towards the stat itself.

+/- analysis is at the forefront of all these fields, everyone wants to know the team influence along with the player influence.


Basically if you have Lillard as the primary option on the Blazers, his RPM will be higher than if he was a secondary option on MJ's Bulls and had his minutes staggered with Jordan's.

RPM is flawed and context is the reason I never use it in any argument when comparing 2 players. Different teams, styles, rotations, tempo, etc... have too much impact.
I dont believe thats true, either way we would see a change in statistics as a result of role, tempo, rotations etc.. in all stats. Thats kind of why we use them to measure with contextual influences in mind. And I dont believe for one second you would know that to be true so color me unconvinced.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:11 PM
Got 2 parlays going tonight

Basically all the favorites except for Orlando-OKC

I should've hedged my bet when i had the chance, I think its a guaranteed win with the possibility of a huge payoff if Orlando wins today. Cuz Portland and GS aint losing tonight at all.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:13 PM
The media isn't giving Jimmy Butler more credit , I think he's starting to enter that star tier now

Its like hes been a year behind PG and Kawhi every season but hes finally nipping on their heels. Guys like ManRam thought we had seen his best already

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:15 PM
Lakers better not **** around and win, CMON THIBS!!!

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:20 PM
It's a flawed stat if used as a primary stat for sure, especially for non-primary option players.

Thats the thing tho, its most important use is identifying studs who aren't the guys with high usage/superficial averages and exposes those who are. I dont care how good Rudy Gay's averages look, Ill take Battier anyday and his on/off influence over his entire career is nothing to scoff at if given as statistical backing. Its just as integral as any. Context is king in ANYTHING

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:35 PM
I ****ing knew I should've hedged the OKC-ORL game. Its like the difference between winning 100 and winning 800. FML

shep33
11-13-2016, 08:35 PM
This is a tough game for us. B2B on the road against a young team that needs some W's

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 08:39 PM
Nah, random noise happens throughout the season in every statistic. This is akin to saying Offensive/Defensive efficiency are irrelevant because a great defense can give up more pts simply as a result of "luck", the idea of tracking statistics is to examine season long trends and to see if they show in the statistics. You screaming about the flaws of any single statistic of a laughably small sample size with very little analysis only exposes your own ignorance towards the stat itself.

+/- analysis is at the forefront of all these fields, everyone wants to know the team influence along with the player influence.


I dont believe thats true, either way we would see a change in statistics as a result of role, tempo, rotations etc.. in all stats. Thats kind of why we use them to measure with contextual influences in mind. And I dont believe for one second you would know that to be true so color me unconvinced.

You think I don't know the irregularity of a single game (or half game) worth of +/- stats? Seriously? I've been tearing down RPM arguments and stats that are garnered over years and I will continue to do so. My semi-rant was made because I ALWAYS see people go:

"Player A is +12 for the game today! Player B is -10 on box stats, he's not doing well!" and my response was to show the illegitimacy of those arguments. I'm fully aware and have been fully aware that +/- requires a long accumulation of stats to even hope to be accurate. Come on, don't give me that BS, Chronz.

While there is a 'luck' factor involved in all stats, there isn't any quite like +/-. When I measure a person's FG%, or TS%, that person is directly involved in those calculations. When you do +/- or RPM, the person doesn't have to be directly involved in any of the calculations - they're just ON THE FLOOR. Doesn't mean jack squat.

Even over a long period of time, it doesn't necessarily mean jack squat. A player's RPM can sky-rocket if they play the majority of their minutes with a player that destroys competition. Total minutes don't matter.

If you're a better player than me (and we're both much worse than LeBron) and I play 90% of my 1000 minutes with LeBron (900 minutes), and you play 70% of your 1000 minutes with LeBron, my RPM will be higher than yours, maybe even significantly so.

That doesn't even measure in WHO we're playing against. KAT had an RPM of .90 (or something like that) while Gorgui Dieng had an RPM of 2.70 (much more than KAT) for the entire 2015-16 season. That's a year long worth of data. Does that mean Dieng was a better player or that the Wolves were better with Dieng? Lol of course not. Dieng got a higher percentage of HIS minutes against the opposing team's bench than KAT got of his own minutes.

Even a decade-long worth of RPM stats may not tell the truth if a player plays a specific role for most of his career that allows him to play with a superstar against opposing teams benches.

It's a badly flawed stat if you're not heavily scrutinizing it with context. No other stat is like that. I believe I can find these situations (such as Cole Aldrich being = to Deandre Jordan based on RPM for the whole 2015-16 season) on practically every single team. The flaw is far too prevalent to be taken seriously.

APM (adjusted plus-minus), RAPM (regularized adjusted plus-minus), and RPM (real plus-minus) have all been debunked by many analytical experts and not given any sort of weight since it was exposed in 2014. It's just a stat for fun at this point, and unfortunately message board posters and uneducated writers (definitely ones seeking money anyway) and sports broadcasters/announcers haven't caught on yet.

Believe it or not that's just how it is.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:49 PM
You think I don't know the irregularity of a single game (or half game) worth of +/- stats? Seriously? I've been tearing down RPM arguments and stats that are garnered over years and I will continue to do so. My semi-rant was made because I ALWAYS see people go:

"Player A is +12 for the game today! Player B is -10 on box stats, he's not doing well!" and my response was to show the illegitimacy of those arguments. I'm fully aware and have been fully aware that +/- requires a long accumulation of stats to even hope to be accurate. Come on, don't give me that BS, Chronz.
How is it BS if the way you worded the argument was "This Game ____". I dont see those arguments you have with guys who misuse the statistic, call it BS but you sound the way I do when my team/player is underachieving.


While there is a 'luck' factor involved in all stats, there isn't any quite like +/-. When I measure a person's FG%, or TS%, that person is directly involved in those calculations. When you do +/- or RPM, the person doesn't have to be directly involved in any of the calculations - they're just ON THE FLOOR. Doesn't mean jack squat.

Jack squat? LMFAO, and you think Im the one talking BS? Agree to disagree bro, you've proven nothing to give me reason to doubt the APBR and those within the NBA itself than to think it shows jack squat. Lighten up bro


Even over a long period of time, it doesn't necessarily mean jack squat. A player's RPM can sky-rocket if they play the majority of their minutes with a player that destroys competition. Total minutes don't matter.

If you're a better player than me (and we're both much worse than LeBron) and I play 90% of my 1000 minutes with LeBron (900 minutes), and you play 70% of your 1000 minutes with LeBron, my RPM will be higher than yours, maybe even significantly so.

Nope.


That doesn't even measure in WHO we're playing against. KAT had an RPM of .90 (or something like that) while Gorgui Dieng had an RPM of 2.70 (much more than KAT) for the entire 2015-16 season. That's a year long worth of data. Does that mean Dieng was a better player or that the Wolves were better with Dieng? Lol of course not. Dieng got a higher percentage of HIS minutes against the opposing team's bench than KAT got of his own minutes.

Even a decade-long worth of RPM stats may not tell the truth if a player plays a specific role for most of his career that allows him to play with a superstar against opposing teams benches.

It's a badly flawed stat if you're not heavily scrutinizing it with context. No other stat is like that. I believe I can find these situations (such as Cole Aldrich being = to Deandre Jordan based on RPM for the whole 2015-16 season) on practically every single team. The flaw is far too prevalent to be taken seriously.

APM (adjusted plus-minus), RAPM (regularized adjusted plus-minus), and RPM (real plus-minus) have all been debunked by many analytical experts and not given any sort of weight since it was exposed in 2014. It's just a stat for fun at this point, and unfortunately message board posters and uneducated writers (definitely ones seeking money anyway) and sports broadcasters/announcers haven't caught on yet.

Believe it or not that's just how it is.

I like how you think pointing to subjective outliers is suppose to prove any sort of point. Believe it or not, your case falls woefully short of proving your claims. All stats are merely tools, how you choose to use them depend on you, how you choose to berate them based on what the ignorant have said is up to YOU. Believe it or not, I LOVE gambling, and I find what you say offensive. Had I had +/- available to me in my youth I would have ate it up just the same. Just because you cant find any use/value in it, doesn't mean the rest of us/THE NBA is as ignorant.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:50 PM
This is a tough game for us. B2B on the road against a young team that needs some W's

Both teams are on a B2B, I just figured the T'Wolves would rather rest against the superior LA team and come balls out against a Lakers team thats going full bore and is expected to regress.

Lakers + Giants
11-13-2016, 08:50 PM
lakers on a nice 10-0 run to get back in the game. Lets go.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 08:53 PM
Thats the thing tho, its most important use is identifying studs who aren't the guys with high usage/superficial averages and exposes those who are. I dont care how good Rudy Gay's averages look, Ill take Battier anyday and his on/off influence over his entire career is nothing to scoff at if given as statistical backing. Its just as integral as any. Context is king in ANYTHING

See, you are an example of someone putting far too much weight into that stat (whether than logically deducing that Gay does not help his team win). You choose to ignore the many anomalies just to zero in on a specific scenario or two where the stat looks accurate.

Context matters in everything, but for SOME stats (particularly those that are based on a player standing on the court during a certain time) it's far more important to consider. There's a reason why the very definition of RPM uses the word 'estimation'. There's no estimation involved in 3pt%. The ONLY context involved with 3pt% is whether a not a player is getting wide open looks (due to another player). There's nothing else (not including injury which impacts/affects every stat).

With RPM there is a myriad of circumstances that affect those numbers, and because of that it has to be used extremely carefully through heavy scrutiny.

Lakers + Giants
11-13-2016, 08:54 PM
as soon as I say that, back down by 9.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 08:55 PM
lakers on a nice 10-0 run to get back in the game. Lets go.

Its less stressful when I cant see the game but league pass isn't giving me a choice on this one. ****ing blackouts

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:04 PM
See, you are an example of someone putting far too much weight into that stat (whether than logically deducing that Gay does not help his team win). You choose to ignore the many anomalies just to zero in on a specific scenario or two where the stat looks accurate.

Context matters in everything, but for SOME stats (particularly those that are based on a player standing on the court during a certain time) it's far more important to consider. There's a reason why the very definition of RPM uses the word 'estimation'. There's no estimation involved in 3pt%. The ONLY context involved with 3pt% is whether a not a player is getting wide open looks (due to another player). There's nothing else (not including injury which impacts/affects every stat).

With RPM there is a myriad of circumstances that affect those numbers, and because of that it has to be used extremely carefully through heavy scrutiny.
There is absolutely an estimate in 3p% in the sense of transfer-ability, thats all teams care about. If you see the SAME PLAYER on the SAME TEAM, greatly fluctuate in his 3pt% and on/off(+/-) stats help highlight a specific player/role/reason etc.. then its of VALUE. If players go on NEW teams and get MORE wide open looks and start seeing a decline even then, its equally disappointing. They are ALL tools and based on your shallow arguments thus far, I see no reason to abandon something that has only heightened my awareness.

Look man, we can agree to disagree but one thing you should get through your head is that when it comes to stats, unless you have more than conjecture to offer, Im not going to blindly believe your vague pseudo analysis over my own historical examinations and the organizations that give me reason to believe in their worth.

Personally, you can say "heavy scrutiny" but thats entirely subjective. Maybe whats heavy scrutiny for you is easier for others and we cant possibly agree with your extremist POV. Bring up the context when the debate comes, it holds true for ALL stats. I really dont care what you think of stats that has brought value to so many organizations and has helped me in my own projections.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 09:05 PM
How is it BS if the way you worded the argument was "This Game ____". I dont see those arguments you have with guys who misuse the statistic, call it BS but you sound the way I do when my team/player is underachieving.


Jack squat? LMFAO, and you think Im the one talking BS? Agree to disagree bro, you've proven nothing to give me reason to doubt the APBR and those within the NBA itself than to think it shows jack squat. Lighten up bro


Nope.


I like how you think pointing to subjective outliers is suppose to prove any sort of point. Believe it or not, your case falls woefully short of proving your claims. All stats are merely tools, how you choose to use them depend on you, how you choose to berate them based on what the ignorant have said is up to YOU. Believe it or not, I LOVE gambling, and I find what you say offensive. Had I had +/- available to me in my youth I would have ate it up just the same. Just because you cant find any use/value in it, doesn't mean the rest of us/THE NBA is as ignorant.

And I like how you failed to counter any of my points and instead just said, "Nope." or "I'm not convinced." You're proving that you're the type of person that will believe anything a stat tells you, even in the place of logic.

There's numerous articles pointing to the illegitimacy of it. If anything, RPM, if adjusted, might function as a fun and not serious way to place a value on how well a coach is coaching.

Stunner
11-13-2016, 09:08 PM
Its like hes been a year behind PG and Kawhi every season but hes finally nipping on their heels. Guys like ManRam thought we had seen his best already

Man so far he's playing better than PG but I've always thought pg got a lil overrated around the world . Even last year I thought Jimmy could do all the stuff George does if he had the ball in his hands as much as he did . PG highest PER of his career was last at 20.9 with a 30% usage . Butler has hit 21.3 per twice with usage % of 21 and 24 % . This season his PER is 28.3 so far with a 27% usage .


He just takes care of the ball much better than George will doing everything PG can do . PG the more consistent 3 point shooter over his career but yea Butler and PG gap closer than many like to admit .

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:09 PM
PS, Im drunk cuz Im about to win yet another parlay. No way the Dubs and Blazers **** up tonight, RIGHT?

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 09:10 PM
There is absolutely an estimate in 3p% in the sense of transfer-ability, thats all teams care about. If you see the SAME PLAYER on the SAME TEAM, greatly fluctuate in his 3pt% and on/off(+/-) stats help highlight a specific player/role/reason etc.. then its of VALUE. If players go on NEW teams and get MORE wide open looks and start seeing a decline even then, its equally disappointing. They are ALL tools and based on your shallow arguments thus far, I see no reason to abandon something that has only heightened my awareness.

Look man, we can agree to disagree but one thing you should get through your head is that when it comes to stats, unless you have more than conjecture to offer, Im not going to blindly believe your vague pseudo analysis over my own historical examinations and the organizations that give me reason to believe in their worth.

Personally, you can say "heavy scrutiny" but thats entirely subjective. Maybe whats heavy scrutiny for you is easier for others and we cant possibly agree with your extremist POV. Bring up the context when the debate comes, it holds true for ALL stats. I really dont care what you think of stats that has brought value to so many organizations and has helped me in my own projections.

Wait wait...

So you're telling me that 3pt% has the exact same degree of estimation and requires as much context as RPM? I refuse to address anything further in that post until hearing your answer.

If you believe that then you're seriously smoking something or missing my point entirely.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:13 PM
Man so far he's playing better than PG but I've always thought pg got a lil overrated around the world . Even last year I thought Jimmy could do all the stuff George does if he had the ball in his hands as much as he did . PG highest PER of his career was last at 20.9 with a 30% usage . Butler has hit 21.3 per twice with usage % of 21 and 24 % . This season his PER is 28.3 so far with a 27% usage .


He just takes care of the ball much better than George will doing everything PG can do . PG the more consistent 3 point shooter over his career but yea Butler and PG gap closer than many like to admit .

Its early tho. I felt bad for PG when the Pacers traded Hill away, even more ball dominant non-spacers/defenders for him to play with. But Butler had the same problem with Rondo so there are no excuses. Hes been great thus far for sure.

Ill check the numbers later tho

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:15 PM
Wait wait...

So you're telling me that 3pt% has the exact same degree of estimation and requires as much context as RPM? I refuse to address anything further in that post until hearing your answer.

If you believe that then you're seriously smoking something or missing my point entirely.

Same degree? Dude if you're talking about predictability, just which barometers do you think grade more highly than +/- models?

What exactly are you *****ing about?

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:18 PM
I mentioned 3p% because you specifically brought it up as being devoid of external factors. I would've said that sooner but I really dont understand your hilariously vague POV.

Lets start with facts.

NBA teams, myself, analysts/statisticians alike, ALL find some kind of value in +/-.

You argue against those facts by pointing to a single game and you defend it because its the type of argument you've heard from the laymen.

My question is, WHO THE **** CARES? Your post was a CLASSIC example of why +/- detractors have no idea what they are talking about. You may have a greater point but I didn't see you argue with the laymen, thats where Im at.

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:30 PM
Awaits response: .....


Makes for a good thread. Go on and make it, not trying to get too serious today but Ill check eventually.

Sadds The Gr8
11-13-2016, 09:33 PM
My boy, what up STG

what up brotha.

I'm balls deep in NFL betting atm but in dec/jan I'll be flocking here while i lose $$$ nightly

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 09:36 PM
Same degree? Dude if you're talking about predictability, just which barometers do you think grade more highly than +/- models?

What exactly are you *****ing about?

Are you being obtuse or what? JFC, can you think on a human level at all?

When I compare 3pt percentages between two different players, THERE IS NO ESTIMATION. Those are the factual percentages between those two players. You go 2/8 and you shot 25% from beyond the arc. That's fact.

The ONLY context is whether or not a player was shooting more wide open shots than another. That's it. Nothing more. If they're shooting an open shot then the 3pt% is as accurate as accurate can be. Some players do not get the same benefit because they're not shooting as many open shots. This is the ONLY thing one must consider when comparing two different players and their 3-point percentages. You repeated this in your statement and that's it.

RPM, on the other hand, literally ESTIMATES impact. That's in ESPN's very definition. The whole stat is an estimation because it is acknowledging that all it can and ever do is place a number on a player's net point differential per 100 possessions. All we can hope for is that over a long period of time we can make something out of it or see patterns that gives us insight on a player's impact. It's nothing but a blind estimation that gives us blurry view on what a player is or isn't doing.

If we look at RPM in context I can list SEVERAL (not just one) factors that can heavily skew the numbers:

1. Coach rotations and which lineups they are playing with.
2. Player roles and what they're asked to do.
3. Players minutes with other better players.
4. Players positions and the era of the league (big men in a small ball league, etc...)

http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/4/8/5593434/espns-new-advanced-stat-seems-as-flawed-as-a-josh-smith-jump-shot

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus

http://deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469

http://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2016/05/04/real-plus-minus-the-bogus-new-stat-everyones-using

http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/4/9/5591108/jae-crowder-problem-espn-real-plus-minus-rpm

It's a flawed stat. I'm not giving you outliers either. I feel I can do it for almost every team. I'm just not gonna bother if you're gonna maintain a stubborn attitude about it.

lol, please
11-13-2016, 09:41 PM
Suns are playing well but it's early.

lol, please
11-13-2016, 09:46 PM
Klay putting this team on his back.

Wish the Suns would stop making 3's though.

Vee-Rex
11-13-2016, 09:50 PM
I mentioned 3p% because you specifically brought it up as being devoid of external factors. I would've said that sooner but I really dont understand your hilariously vague POV.


I did not say it was devoid of external factors. I said the actual stat isn't based on an estimation. I then went on to name an external factor (which is the only one). Here's, I'll quote myself for you:


There's a reason why the very definition of RPM uses the word 'estimation'. There's no estimation involved in 3pt%. The ONLY context involved with 3pt% is whether a not a player is getting wide open looks (due to another player).


You argue against those facts by pointing to a single game and you defend it because its the type of argument you've heard from the laymen.

I pointed to a single game because I found it mind-numbing how often people would say things like, "Hassan Whiteside was a +20 in this game, he's the only one playing well."

I wasn't responding to anyone in particular, and I damn sure know that +/- stats are reliant on years-long time periods to try to be accurate. But we've all heard people throws out stuff like that, right?

Also, uncontrollable circumstances in that single game led to LeBron posting a much higher +/- despite playing like *** on both ends of the court than Kyrie who played great on both ends for the first 3 quarters.

Some of these circumstances are definitely repeatable for a long period of time based on particular rotations and styles of play. Comparing the RPM on players on opposing teams is DEFINITELY wacky and I feel that we see this all too often.

As far as who cares, looks like both of us? Idk, I see flaws with stats that are used like its gospel and I point it out. What's wrong with that?

Chronz
11-13-2016, 09:57 PM
Yeah yeah, I get it.

Right now some one tell me whats up with the Dubs, ruining my night

lol, please
11-13-2016, 09:58 PM
Did anyone else just see the Suns bench just tell him to throw Curry down hard next time?....

lol, please
11-13-2016, 10:04 PM
Curry!!! :worthy: doing what he does best

lol, please
11-13-2016, 10:05 PM
And then Durant!!!! Steals and 3s! Steals and 3s!

lol, please
11-13-2016, 10:16 PM
Sucks that King Klay is in foul trouble because we need his scoring.

lol, please
11-13-2016, 10:29 PM
King Klay for 3!!!!

lol, please
11-13-2016, 10:43 PM
McCaw is wet!!!!

lol, please
11-13-2016, 10:44 PM
LMAO! Durant with a monster block and Curry drains the 3!!!!

:laugh2:

Stunner
11-13-2016, 10:45 PM
Wiggins has taken off

Scoots
11-13-2016, 10:59 PM
When I compare 3pt percentages between two different players, THERE IS NO ESTIMATION. Those are the factual percentages between those two players. You go 2/8 and you shot 25% from beyond the arc. That's fact.

The ONLY context is whether or not a player was shooting more wide open shots than another. That's it. Nothing more.

Well ... no. Was the player dribbling into the shot or catch and shoot? Do they tend to get clean catches in their pocket or do that have to reach to catch? Are they getting the ball in rhythm? Was it at the 3 point line are 15' behind it? Are they a PG who tends to have the ball in their hands at the ends of quarters which may mean 2 3 attempts a game are from 3/4 court with time running out or desperation 3s because a teammate blew the play. Some players shoot more 3s early in games when their legs are stronger and there is less pressure on each shot, some shoot more late, that has an effect on %. I'm not sure what your argument is about exactly ... but openness is far from the only factor on a players 3p%.

Nevermind ... I know you get this stuff.

lol, please
11-13-2016, 11:11 PM
King Klay!!!!! On fire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tredigs
11-14-2016, 01:07 AM
rude.

IKnowHoops
11-14-2016, 01:51 AM
Btw Dunleavy is CRAP. Lue needs to play Jordan McCrae.

Everyone one was so high on this signing. I just let that one go. I had enough battles I have to fight in hear over just giving my opinion. I never thought Dunleavy was anything at all. I was disappointed in the signing. Good thing Shumpert is healthy and in form and playing great high energy, athletic basketball on both sides of the court and has successfully taken a lot of the minutes that Dunleavy was trying to get.

Vee-Rex
11-14-2016, 02:29 AM
Well ... no. Was the player dribbling into the shot or catch and shoot? Do they tend to get clean catches in their pocket or do that have to reach to catch? Are they getting the ball in rhythm? Was it at the 3 point line are 15' behind it? Are they a PG who tends to have the ball in their hands at the ends of quarters which may mean 2 3 attempts a game are from 3/4 court with time running out or desperation 3s because a teammate blew the play. Some players shoot more 3s early in games when their legs are stronger and there is less pressure on each shot, some shoot more late, that has an effect on %. I'm not sure what your argument is about exactly ... but openness is far from the only factor on a players 3p%.

Nevermind ... I know you get this stuff.

I'll try to address the entirety of your post - I think you put forth an interesting twist but I don't think that quite relates to the issues presented by RPM.

A player that attempts an off-dribble 3-pointer is electing to take that specific shot - it's a choice. The person that shoots a 3-pointer off a bad pass is electing to take that shot - it's a choice. The person that shoots from 4 feet behind the 3-point line is electing to take that shot - it's a choice. These aren't really relatable to the uncontrollable circumstances that are measured into RPM calculations.

A desperation 3 doesn't happen often, but it's a universal factor that affects every single player. I don't think that a player's 3pt% is heavily affected by desperation 3's because of how rare they are, at least not long-term. Still, the player sometimes have the choice on whether or not they can take it or dribble inside for a 2-point shot.

RPM has contextual situations that exist outside the capabilities of an individual.

Player A can play perfect defense but his teammates can give up points in a given time span. He can play perfect defense but the teammates give up O-rebounds. Or, he can play perfect defense but the team he's playing with is far less talented than who they're playing against. Player A can play perfect defense but 95% his minutes only come as part of a small-ball lineup and when they face a team like the Spurs who are big inside, his team surrenders easy buckets.

I mean, I can give an endless amount of examples of uncontrollable circumstances that negatively impact a player's RPM. Some of these circumstances can be long-term because they're based around a particular rotation or scheme that a coach/team has for the entire year.

Likewise, a player who plays badly on offense can be inserted (like Iman Shumpert) into a strong offensive lineup that covers for his weakness, and so his offensive +/- numbers are inflated/flawed because HE'S SIMPLY STANDING ON THE COURT.

Unlike the choices players make in terms of when they shoot 3-pointers, these RPM situations can account for times where a player's actions are absolutely and completely irrelevant. Coaches, especially good ones, are tasked with putting their players in the best possible chances to succeed, often (and very often I might add) utilizing them in lineups that best hides their weaknesses. RPM and other +/- formulas cannot account for that. It's impossible. There's no quantifiable way to measure how a person contributes their impact (fighting through screens and rotating well or are they just a part of a strong defensive lineup?). There are plenty of situations where guys may not have their true impact reflected because they're either:

A - having their weaknesses covered for

or

B - not a part of their teams most effective lineups

Example: Damian Lillard is the point guard of Jordan's Bulls. Many consider Michael Jordan the GOAT - his impact on the game is undeniable. When he's on the court, the team performs well both offensively and defensively. He's the bonafide, legendary superstar who is more often than not, completely unstoppable. As Jordan goes, so does the team.

When Lillard's minutes are staggered with Jordan's, there will be plenty of times Lillard is on the court and Jordan is not (because the coach wants to keep a scorer on the court). In this sense, Lillard is directly competing with Jordan for RPM numbers - whoever puts up the worst performance between the 2 will be the one with a negative/worse +/- score at the end of the game. Why? Because the team is almost always going to perform better with JUST Jordan w/o Lillard on the court than it will with JUST Lillard w/o Jordan on the court. The net per 100 possession differential is going to favor Jordan over Lillard, and no matter how good Lillard has played - it'll be bad for him because the team is playing worse.

This will automatically lower Lillard's RPM numbers. These type of situations are extremely prevalent in the NBA (which is why there's so many wacky RPM numbers - take a look at SGs from the entire 2015-16 season). Coaching schemes and rotations impact how well the team is doing at any given point - which makes it unfair to judge a player's impact solely on whether or not his team is getting a +differential or a -differential while he's on the court.

Again, this differs from 3-point% because 3-point% is largely based on the choice of the player and it universally affects ALL players. RPM goes outside the realm of choice and can be entirely uncontrollable just because coach wants to stagger my minutes with bums but wants my brother (who is a worse player) to play with a lineup featuring LeBron, Jordan, Shaq, and Duncan. That lineup blows away any opponent, and thus my brother has a much higher RPM than I do because when he's on the court the team is playing better than the team that I'm on the court with.

Do you see what I'm saying? Again, this is PREVALENT when I look at RPM leaders and numbers.

My argument is this - RPM is not a great stat to use at all. I believe it becomes more accurate with time (and I'm talking years upon years here), but even then it may not reflect the truth. It shouldn't be thrown away because it's additional data (which is usually a good thing), but it absolutely cannot be the backbone or measuring stick when comparing two players which happens all too often.

Edit: http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2016/sort/RPM

There's the link to the RPM 2015-16 numbers. Sort through any position you want and you'll see tons of inconsistencies. I mean, there's absolutely no way Nikola Jokic has far more total impact for his Nuggets than James Harden did for his Rockets. Even relatively speaking, there's absolutely no way.

The numbers show SOMETHING... we see a pattern with the best players. Obviously ESPN was onto something with their RPM formula (and others with RAPM and APM), but it's far, far too inconsistent to be slung around like it's the deciding factor when measuring two players.

The fact that there's ANY inconsistencies at all between 2 players on the same team shows that something is flawed. JR Smith does not contribute more wins to the Cavs than DeMar DeRozan, because JR is a role-player whose role is far more easily replaced/duplicated than DeRozan's. DeRozan is a star player and the loss of him would put much more of a strain on Lowry and cause them to lose far more.

Stuff like that is what I'm talking about.

Vee-Rex
11-14-2016, 03:02 AM
Everyone one was so high on this signing. I just let that one go. I had enough battles I have to fight in hear over just giving my opinion. I never thought Dunleavy was anything at all. I was disappointed in the signing. Good thing Shumpert is healthy and in form and playing great high energy, athletic basketball on both sides of the court and has successfully taken a lot of the minutes that Dunleavy was trying to get.

I admit I thought it was a great signing. But this is old Dunleavy. I'm hoping he find his shot (he has always been streaky throughout his career) but this is probably all we're gonna get. I'll eat my crow on that one.

And you're right about Shumpert. He has been doing well.

Clint Olbrock
11-14-2016, 06:28 AM
Everyone one was so high on this signing. I just let that one go. I had enough battles I have to fight in hear over just giving my opinion. I never thought Dunleavy was anything at all. I was disappointed in the signing. Good thing Shumpert is healthy and in form and playing great high energy, athletic basketball on both sides of the court and has successfully taken a lot of the minutes that Dunleavy was trying to get.

Not that it changes your point but the Cavs traded for Dunleavy, fyi.

Scoots
11-14-2016, 08:27 AM
I'll try to address the entirety of your post - I think you put forth an interesting twist but I don't think that quite relates to the issues presented by RPM.

A player that attempts an off-dribble 3-pointer is electing to take that specific shot - it's a choice. The person that shoots a 3-pointer off a bad pass is electing to take that shot - it's a choice. The person that shoots from 4 feet behind the 3-point line is electing to take that shot - it's a choice. These aren't really relatable to the uncontrollable circumstances that are measured into RPM calculations.

A desperation 3 doesn't happen often, but it's a universal factor that affects every single player. I don't think that a player's 3pt% is heavily affected by desperation 3's because of how rare they are, at least not long-term. Still, the player sometimes have the choice on whether or not they can take it or dribble inside for a 2-point shot.


I wasn't trying to get into the RPM stuff so I'll leave that alone.

Yes the shots the players take only happen if they choose to take them. My point was 3p% and whether the player was open or not doesn't tell you everything about a 3 point shooter.

I watch more Warriors games than anybody else so maybe it's something they do more than others ... but they will rush a shot late in a quarter to get the last possession, which is itself often a rushed shot. I see probably close to 2 last second shots a game with the Warriors. I think there was an end of the year video with Curry making 11 or 12 last second heaves. Maybe more teams just dribble the clock out.

Vee-Rex
11-14-2016, 09:52 AM
I wasn't trying to get into the RPM stuff so I'll leave that alone.

Yes the shots the players take only happen if they choose to take them. My point was 3p% and whether the player was open or not doesn't tell you everything about a 3 point shooter.

I watch more Warriors games than anybody else so maybe it's something they do more than others ... but they will rush a shot late in a quarter to get the last possession, which is itself often a rushed shot. I see probably close to 2 last second shots a game with the Warriors. I think there was an end of the year video with Curry making 11 or 12 last second heaves. Maybe more teams just dribble the clock out.

I hear what you're saying, and you're not wrong. I just think that in the grand scheme of things, desperation 3's IMO are rather negligible. I don't think a GM or scout is trying to factor in a player's amount of desperation 3's when looking at how well of a 3 point shooter they are. They just happen too rarely to significantly affect a player's stats.

I do think the Warriors are probably more likely to take those shots anyway. But then they tend to take more 3s than most teams in the league anyway.

My comment on 3point shooting was tied directly to comparing it to RPM. I suppose I would've been better saying that MORE OR LESS, 3 point shooting boils down to whether they're open or not. All the other factors are either minimal or universal, whereas we can't say the same for RPM. Every factor for 3point shooting ultimately boils down to choice, whereas we can't say that for RPM. No matter if affected by fatigue or a bad pass, a player chooses to shoot that 3 and it's universal to all, whereas +/- are often outside that realm of choice and not universal to all based on different rotations, schemesm, etc...

Thus, some statistics more accurately portray a player's skill and ability in that particular stat than RPM does in measuring a person's impact on the court.

FlashBolt
11-14-2016, 12:19 PM
Dunleavy doesn't seem comfortable on this team. I think he's a tad bit too quiet and that just creates an awkward relationship that creates a messy situation on the court. Communication is way off on the court every time he's out there and I think that's because players just don't know what to expect from him and vice-versa. Would like to see LeBron get Dunleavy going more often. Should probably start Dunleavy against the weaker teams and then force-feed him the ball to see which play works for him.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 05:52 PM
I did not say it was devoid of external factors.
I said the actual stat isn't based on an estimation.
The simple answer I should have given yesterday is that value of a stat isn't relegated to how you choose to pigeonhole any stat. Its suppose to be an estimate, if we had the unequivocal truth of how a player impacts his team then ALL stats would pale in comparison to it. Again, this goes back to your own understanding and use of a tool. Your complaints have fallen woefully short of backing up your opinion, the value of a stat isn't in how you choose to pigeonhole it.



I then went on to name an external factor (which is the only one). Here's, I'll quote myself for you:

You were wrong on that front as well. A player can get even more open looks and see his % decline. We now have a multitude of stats to help us depict why. They are all tools.



I pointed to a single game because I found it mind-numbing how often people would say things like, "Hassan Whiteside was a +20 in this game, he's the only one playing well."

I wasn't responding to anyone in particular, and I damn sure know that +/- stats are reliant on years-long time periods to try to be accurate. But we've all heard people throws out stuff like that, right?
I haven't and if I did, I would tell them this "You're doing it wrong". Pointing to a single game in ANY stat is a way to lose track of its value. Like lets say some guy goes 9-9 and the primary option goes 4-20 facing heavy coverage and someone tells me its an example of why efficiency is overrated. How do you respond? There is an element of subjectivity in ANY stat when it comes to transferability.



Also, uncontrollable circumstances in that single game led to LeBron posting a much higher +/- despite playing like *** on both ends of the court than Kyrie who played great on both ends for the first 3 quarters.
Hence the need for a statistically significant sample size, that size is dependent on your own analysis. AGAIN, this would be like me blasting off/def efficiency just because a team missed shots that were expected to go in based on expected value of the shot attempt. **** HAPPENS WITH ALL STATS.



Some of these circumstances are definitely repeatable for a long period of time based on particular rotations and styles of play. Comparing the RPM on players on opposing teams is DEFINITELY wacky and I feel that we see this all too often.

That holds true for any metric attempting to encapsulate a players worth into a single barometer. Heres the thing, you've yet to explain how something is statistically inadequate and why we should ignore predictability. AGAIN, I side with ACTUAL statisticians and teams over your unsubstantiated claims.



As far as who cares, looks like both of us? Idk, I see flaws with stats that are used like its gospel and I point it out. What's wrong with that?
lol, wat? I wouldn't care to the point where I perpetuate their ignorance with just as ignorant criticism.



Are you being obtuse or what? JFC, can you think on a human level at all?
LMFAO, can you?


When I compare 3pt percentages between two different players, THERE IS NO ESTIMATION. Those are the factual percentages between those two players. You go 2/8 and you shot 25% from beyond the arc. That's fact.

And when you compare +/- between 2 players THERE IS NO ESTIMATION. Those are factual numbers that transpired when said player was on the court. Just because you misuse/pigeonhole a statistic isn't my problem. I gave you the out by assuming you were talking about transferability but you didn't take it so now Im left with 1 question (its the same one you've refused/failed to answer). Just which barometers do you think have the highest levels of predictability in terms of projections? Maybe use those stats to compare to +/- levels of analysis.


The ONLY context is whether or not a player was shooting more wide open shots than another. That's it. Nothing more.
Thats false. A player can be better in different sections of the court, different usage/role/touches/teammates ETC....


RPM, on the other hand, literally ESTIMATES impact. That's in ESPN's very definition. The whole stat is an estimation because it is acknowledging that all it can and ever do is place a number on a player's net point differential per 100 possessions. All we can hope for is that over a long period of time we can make something out of it or see patterns that gives us insight on a player's impact. It's nothing but a blind estimation that gives us blurry view on what a player is or isn't doing.
All in 1 metrics are estimations because there is no general/scientific consensus on the value of a myriad of statistics. Yay 3p% has less variability, it still tells you less about a player. I want to see you combine all that data into a single quantifiable number and see what you come up with thats without outliers and has a higher level of predictability/value in any sort of barometer.


If we look at RPM in context I can list SEVERAL (not just one) factors that can heavily skew the numbers:

1. Coach rotations and which lineups they are playing with.
2. Player roles and what they're asked to do.
3. Players minutes with other better players.
4. Players positions and the era of the league (big men in a small ball league, etc...)

This holds true for every statistic, more importantly, holds true for the statistics in the same tier of analysis as +/-. As in, it actually ATTEMPTS to identify a players contributions to a teams bottom line. 3P% tells me NOTHING about a players potential impact on its own.


http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/4/8/5593434/espns-new-advanced-stat-seems-as-flawed-as-a-josh-smith-jump-shot

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus

http://deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469

http://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2016/05/04/real-plus-minus-the-bogus-new-stat-everyones-using

http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/4/9/5591108/jae-crowder-problem-espn-real-plus-minus-rpm

It's a flawed stat. I'm not giving you outliers either. I feel I can do it for almost every team. I'm just not gonna bother if you're gonna maintain a stubborn attitude about it.

Its not flawed unless you fail to understand its limitations and strengths.

Its not being stubborn to expect you to make an actual STATISTICAL argument, particularly when I dont believe your unsubstantiated claims.

Again, if you find no value in it, sad for you. Im not gonna stop making more money just because you think its of no significance. Im not gonna dismiss a stat given such a feeble argument. You can find articles on ANY stat that has the same utility.

Lets put it this way, the only way I can understand your POV is if you simply dont like linear weights or any sort of stat that attempts to encapsulate a players productive value OVERALL. Not just a single aspect of the game like raw 3p% which tells us very little overall and I'd LOVE to see you highlight its tranferability/predictability because there have been MIT grads that couldn't do it.

In short, you are trying to say it holds no value when all you've proven is that its not PERFECT. LMFAO, show me any stat in its class that is. In other words, a stat that teams find value in enough to actually invest in.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 05:57 PM
Also, did you guys notice the Dubs made their comeback when they basically had KD act like he was Harrison Barnes last night.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 06:09 PM
rude.
Thats a **** reason to edit. IDC how you identify a good/bad deal bro, stick to your guns and trust I wont take offense to someone I've debated with/against for damn near a decade. I get the same advice ALL the time but those same dudes are the ones who ask me what my "for sures" are and which underdog I favor. There are certain games you just KNOW are going to go your way and if you have a multitude of those feelings, why not parlay?

Lets put it this way, a recent parlay has set me up to play with house money for the rest of the month (it should have been the rest of the season but I didn't hedge on a single game when the math said I should've, my bad, early season jitters). To me, its no less silly than putting a huge sum on an underdog for a single game. The way I do it, it actually allows me to make more bets in the long run.

I was actually jealous of my roommate the other day, he was watching the OKC-ORL game not even giving a **** because the parlays set him up for either winning or winning big on his hedge.

I have my system, you have yours. I've yet to have a single losing season since 2003 so Im doing allright despite being "young" enough for parlays LMFAO.

Vee-Rex
11-14-2016, 06:20 PM
We'll just have to agree to disagree, Chronz. I won't say anything more than that or we'll be going on forever.

tredigs
11-14-2016, 06:25 PM
Thats a **** reason to edit. IDC how you identify a good/bad deal bro, stick to your guns and trust I wont take offense to someone I've debated with/against for damn near a decade. I get the same advice ALL the time but those same dudes are the ones who ask me what my "for sures" are and which underdog I favor. There are certain games you just KNOW are going to go your way and if you have a multitude of those feelings, why not parlay?

Lets put it this way, a recent parlay has set me up to play with house money for the rest of the month (it should have been the rest of the season but I didn't hedge on a single game when the math said I should've, my bad, early season jitters). To me, its no less silly than putting a huge sum on an underdog for a single game. The way I do it, it actually allows me to make more bets in the long run.

I was actually jealous of my roommate the other day, he was watching the OKC-ORL game not even giving a **** because the parlays set him up for either winning or winning big on his hedge.

I have my system, you have yours. I've yet to have a single losing season since 2003 so Im doing allright despite being "young" enough for parlays LMFAO.

Meh I was drunk and being totally rude. I 100% back up that claim, though.

You've been winning since '03? OK, assuming that's true (why your bet sizing is so small if that's true confuses me but whatever that's your steeze), I can assure you that you would have won more if you didn't parlay. Over a decade+ long span, the payouts just don't work out in your favor. I can point you to some articles to better understand this if need be. Parlay's are "sucker bets" despite them being fun to throw out there here and there. I did one today in fact.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 06:37 PM
We'll just have to agree to disagree, Chronz. I won't say anything more than that or we'll be going on forever.
We will, lets just promise to try to keep it on the argument.

As an aside, Shane Battier disagrees with you on why he tried not to take last second heaves. It really depends on the player and how cerebral or selfish he may be.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 06:43 PM
Meh I was drunk and being totally rude. I 100% back up that claim, though.

You've been winning since '03? OK, assuming that's true (why your bet sizing is so small if that's true confuses me but whatever that's your steeze), I can assure you that you would have won more if you didn't parlay. Over a decade+ long span, the payouts just don't work out in your favor. I can point you to some articles to better understand this if need be. Parlay's are "sucker bets" despite them being fun to throw out there here and there. I did one today in fact.

I admit that drinking does that to me too. You stand by your belief but you still censored yourself, I honestly didn't find it in the least bit offensive so thats on you, entirely.

I know the dangers of parlays, I bet in small increments precisely because I weigh the risks. Feel free to point out the articles but its not going to sway me because the difficulty in winning separates the packs. Some of my greatest bets have come as a result of going against the grain, doesn't mean I count on that.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 06:50 PM
+ there are some days when the underdogs just dont convince you. You really not gonna use some of that house money on a parlay? Not my style, I lost 2 parlays the other day and still came out ahead cuz I won 1. It really depends on how you view the system/odds. I make bets where the damage is minimal and the gain is substantial enough to make even crazier bets.

A quick way to lose your money (IMO) is betting single games where you're not the underdog. Parlays help me make those bets with less worry thanks to hedging.

tredigs
11-14-2016, 06:51 PM
I admit that drinking does that to me too. You stand by your belief but you still censored yourself, I honestly didn't find it in the least bit offensive so thats on you, entirely.

I know the dangers of parlays, I bet in small increments precisely because I weigh the risks. Feel free to point out the articles but its not going to sway me because the difficulty in winning separates the packs. Some of my greatest bets have come as a result of going against the grain, doesn't mean I count on that.

It's not about going against the grain (Finding +money bets to take ML separate the good from the great as far as that business goes), but the VIG is so far out of your favor within parlays that over the aggregate it is simply fact that betting larger amounts on single bets is more profitable than parlays my dude. PM me if you actually want more info on this.

tredigs
11-14-2016, 06:57 PM
I say all that with the caveat that your 'book is using standard parlay payouts ($100 2 team parlay paying $360). If you're getting better odds than that on a 2x -110 bet, then there is wiggle room for argument. But at that rate mathematically you are just not winning over the single bet. Just trying to help you out dude. They're fun and have their place here and there I guess, but tread very very lightly on your parlay spending if you value your money.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 07:17 PM
Dont Parlay every day to keep the Doctor away. Trust me, been hearing this from the beginning. Parlays are STILL a big part of my plan despite doing them so sporadically. Put it this way, last year I made a **** load of bets, lost many of them, still, my biggest earnings to this day (with the smallest risks) have been the parlays. Its not just fun for me, its an essential part of my system. I havent looked at my numbers but suffice it to say, I dont go 1 for 9 or whatever figure you threw out there. I definitely wouldn't have made the same money simply betting on a single game.

Just PM me the links regardless, Im up for a good laugh or good reading. Its going to be one or the other tho.

tredigs
11-14-2016, 07:26 PM
Dont Parlay every day to keep the Doctor away. Trust me, been hearing this from the beginning. Parlays are STILL a big part of my plan despite doing them so sporadically. Put it this way, last year I made a **** load of bets, lost many of them, still, my biggest earnings to this day (with the smallest risks) have been the parlays. Its not just fun for me, its an essential part of my system. I havent looked at my numbers but suffice it to say, I dont go 1 for 9 or whatever figure you threw out there. I definitely wouldn't have made the same money simply betting on a single game.

Just PM me the links regardless, Im up for a good laugh or good reading. Its going to be one or the other tho.

~8:1+ payouts for parlays are essentially 4 team parlays, so no you aren't doing much better than 1 out of 9 on those. I don't care how good you think you are, you're not beating that. Test yourself and make fake 4 team parlays each night (1 sport or across the spectrum) and actually log them. I 100% guarantee that over the course of 365 days you don't hit them at a right better than 1 out of 9.

Tell ya what, start with this reddit thread, he actually does as good a job breaking it down as need be here. Don't brush aside my post as a joke. It's not my opinion that parlays are for fools if they're used as a substantial portion of your role (even 10% is substantial when you're talking about margins for error in sports betting), it's just an unmitigated objective fact based on the numbers. https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pkzo/why_are_parlays_bad/

Chronz
11-14-2016, 07:36 PM
~8:1+ payouts for parlays are essentially 4 team parlays, so no you aren't doing much better than 1 out of 9 on those. I don't care how good you think you are, you're not beating that. Test yourself and make fake 4 team parlays each night (1 sport or across the spectrum) and actually log them. I 100% guarantee that over the course of 365 days you don't hit them at a right better than 1 out of 9.

Tell ya what, start with this reddit thread, he actually does as good a job breaking it down as need be here. Don't brush aside my post as a joke. It's not my opinion that parlays are for fools if they're used as a substantial portion of your role (even 10% is substantial when you're talking about margins for error in sports betting), it's just an unmitigated objective fact based on the numbers. https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11pkzo/why_are_parlays_bad/

Why would I do one each night when thats NOT my system? I've been doing ACTUAL parlays for years on end and yes I do better than 1 of 9 on them. I've yet to have a SINGLE year where Ive hit such a low% of them so spare me the conventional grain.

Ill start with the thread but the way you are making your argument is not aligning with my experience and I HOPE the thread gives me more insight than that.

tredigs
11-14-2016, 07:41 PM
Why would I do one each night when thats NOT my system? I've been doing ACTUAL parlays for years on end and yes I do better than 1 of 9 on them. I've yet to have a SINGLE year where Ive hit such a low% of them so spare me the conventional grain.

Ill start with the thread but the way you are making your argument is not aligning with my experience and I HOPE the thread gives me more insight than that.

You hit better than that only if you are doing smaller parlays (2/3 teamers... in which case I can adjust those odds accordingly) and/or you have cognitive dissonance when it comes to your reality as a bettor (very common in that world).

In short, you are being extremely naive and simply not understanding the numbers behind the bets.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 07:50 PM
You hit better than that only if you are doing smaller parlays (2/3 teamers... in which case I can adjust those odds accordingly) and/or you have cognitive dissonance when it comes to your reality as a bettor (very common in that world).

In short, you are being extremely naive and simply not understanding the numbers behind the bets.
3 teamers is the lowest I go otherwise its just not worth it. 5 teamers it the max I go, otherwise the risk is too great. Adjust the numbers however you wish, I know them regardless. You dont know my system and parlays are essential to my system, thats ALL I care about. You have your way, I have mine, I feast against conventional wisdom so I dont fault you for relying on the aggregate. Just know, until I have a SINGLE year in which your projections even come close to matching my reality, I wont care.

Chronz
11-14-2016, 07:53 PM
Who knows maybe Im on the extreme side of the regressing to the mean and Im just lucky. Until that happens, Ill do me bro

tredigs
11-14-2016, 07:54 PM
3 teamers is the lowest I go otherwise its just not worth it. 5 teamers it the max I go, otherwise the risk is too great. Adjust the numbers however you wish, I know them regardless. You dont know my system and parlays are essential to my system, thats ALL I care about. You have your way, I have mine, I feast against conventional wisdom so I dont fault you for relying on the aggregate. Just know, until I have a SINGLE year in which your projections even come close to matching my reality, I wont care.

Mk Chronz to each their own. I will simply say that you need to be careful being results-biased, and you would do well to keep an excel log of all your bets if you don't already (bet/denomination/resulting profit or deficit) in order to assure that you don't in fact have some dissonance going on here (most of us do if you don't keep a log).

Feel free to share your bets every night in the game thread though. Let's start today? : )