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Htownballa1622
09-21-2016, 02:53 PM
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/vegas-releases-2016-17-nba-season-overunder-win-totals-for-every-team/

Atlanta Hawks 43.5
Boston Celtics 51.5
Brooklyn Nets 20.5
Charlotte Hornets 39.5
Chicago Bulls 38.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5
Dallas Mavericks 39.5
Denver Nuggets 34.5
Detroit Pistons 45.5
Golden State Warriors 66.5
Houston Rockets 41.5
Indiana Pacers 43.5
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5
Miami Heat 36.5
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5
New York Knicks 38.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5
Orlando Magic 36.5
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5
Phoenix Suns 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5
Sacramento Kings 32.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Toronto Raptors 49.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Washington Wizards 42.5

warfelg
09-21-2016, 03:53 PM
So Vegas thinks higher of the Sixers than LAL, Nets, and Suns. [emoji848]

Hawkeye15
09-21-2016, 04:00 PM
Sixers big leap...

I am under on the Cavs, and I would go over on the Knicks

valade16
09-21-2016, 04:05 PM
How bad was Philly the past few years when 28 wins is "a big leap" lol

They certainly have a big leap for the T-Wolves at 41.5, and the funny thing is I think they'll be over that projection.

nycericanguy
09-21-2016, 04:22 PM
some noteables for me

Knicks
DAL
ATL

easily OVER on those 3, DAL is going to have an underrated squad. And Howard I think is better than Horford, I don't see ATL falling off that much to barely .500.

and UNDER on POR winning 47 games. They had a great year last season but now there will be added pressure and expectations. Going to be hard for them to do even better than last year.

DarkKnight
09-21-2016, 05:08 PM
I'm putting big $$$ on the Knicks... it's actually fun to pick a few teams

More-Than-Most
09-21-2016, 05:22 PM
How bad was Philly the past few years when 28 wins is "a big leap" lol

They certainly have a big leap for the T-Wolves at 41.5, and the funny thing is I think they'll be over that projection.

only had the worst record once.. 27 wins is a massive leap after winning 9 or so... I think they win 30 plus and people called me a moron... Embiid is a god the likes of which this league has not seen from a big in quite sometime.

IndyRealist
09-21-2016, 05:47 PM
Atlanta Hawks 43.5 push Schroeder right now is not better than Teague, right now
Boston Celtics 51.5 push
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 push
Charlotte Hornets 39.5 OVER They are getting MKG back, who is vastly underrated bc he doesn't score
Chicago Bulls 38.5 push but I'm guessing over. If Rondo's going to defer to anybody, it's going to be Wade
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 push
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 OVER Betting on Barnes. Also underrated bc he doesn't score
Denver Nuggets 34.5 push
Detroit Pistons 45.5 OVER That team works a lot better than I thought they would, I see them improving
Golden State Warriors 66.5 OVER I'm worried about the losses, but -7?!
Houston Rockets 41.5 UNDER I don't feel like they improved, and they lost depth
Indiana Pacers 43.5 push Probably break .500 with a new coach/system, but it'll be close
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 UNDER until Doc cuts Austin
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 UNDER Ingram isn't the type of rookie to have a huge impact year 1. He'll put up #s
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 OVER if they abandon the running game, otherwise push
Miami Heat 36.5 push with the Bosh drama
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 push seems reasonable
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 push too hard to predict
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 OVER expect a bounce back year from AD, Solomon Hill is gonna kill it
New York Knicks 38.5 UNDER Derrick Rose is a net negative and you can't bench him
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 OVER I see 50 being more reasonable, but could easily push on this one
Orlando Magic 36.5 push still not sure what they're doing
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 UNDER a rookie Simmons is not worth 17 wins
Phoenix Suns 26.5 push they're a mess. they could be 30 or they could be 15
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 push but likely under
Sacramento Kings 32.5 UNDER I see that team exploding with the Rudy Gay drama going on
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 OVER I would never bet -11 against Pop. They're going to be much faster now
Toronto Raptors 49.5 OVER Biyombo was not that much of a factor during the season. Sullinger will fit
Utah Jazz 47.5 push though close to over. Hill is better than any PG they've had in a while
Washington Wizards 42.5 UNDER Wall had 2 knee procedures this summer

FlashBolt
09-21-2016, 05:57 PM
only had the worst record once.. 27 wins is a massive leap after winning 9 or so... I think they win 30 plus and people called me a moron... Embiid is a god the likes of which this league has not seen from a big in quite sometime.

To be fair, anyone can look like a God dunking in practice.

tredigs
09-21-2016, 06:31 PM
Atlanta Hawks 43.5 push Schroeder right now is not better than Teague, right now
Boston Celtics 51.5 push
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 push
Charlotte Hornets 39.5 OVER They are getting MKG back, who is vastly underrated bc he doesn't score
Chicago Bulls 38.5 push but I'm guessing over. If Rondo's going to defer to anybody, it's going to be Wade
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 push
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 OVER Betting on Barnes. Also underrated bc he doesn't score
Denver Nuggets 34.5 push
Detroit Pistons 45.5 OVER That team works a lot better than I thought they would, I see them improving
Golden State Warriors 66.5 OVER I'm worried about the losses, but -7?!
Houston Rockets 41.5 UNDER I don't feel like they improved, and they lost depth
Indiana Pacers 43.5 push Probably break .500 with a new coach/system, but it'll be close
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 UNDER until Doc cuts Austin
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 UNDER Ingram isn't the type of rookie to have a huge impact year 1. He'll put up #s
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 OVER if they abandon the running game, otherwise push
Miami Heat 36.5 push with the Bosh drama
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 push seems reasonable
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 push too hard to predict
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 OVER expect a bounce back year from AD, Solomon Hill is gonna kill it
New York Knicks 38.5 UNDER Derrick Rose is a net negative and you can't bench him
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 OVER I see 50 being more reasonable, but could easily push on this one
Orlando Magic 36.5 push still not sure what they're doing
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 UNDER a rookie Simmons is not worth 17 wins
Phoenix Suns 26.5 push they're a mess. they could be 30 or they could be 15
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 push but likely under
Sacramento Kings 32.5 UNDER I see that team exploding with the Rudy Gay drama going on
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 OVER I would never bet -11 against Pop. They're going to be much faster now
Toronto Raptors 49.5 OVER Biyombo was not that much of a factor during the season. Sullinger will fit
Utah Jazz 47.5 push though close to over. Hill is better than any PG they've had in a while
Washington Wizards 42.5 UNDER Wall had 2 knee procedures this summer

Warriors will have slight continuity issues at the onset of the year, so they could drop a few games they might not have last season on account of that. Also consider that schedule-losses are real, and the Warriors gave their ALL last season in order to overcome those situations. They will not give anywhere close to that effort in this regular season. With their sheer talent level they should still approach the mid 60's relatively easily, but I'd never put money on the over of a team achieving a top-10 record all time. A lot has to go right.

I'm under on the Knicks as well. I actually don't think their signings were a net positive, and between large continuity issues to start the year, plus multiple players who are prone to injury, they should struggle to reach 35 wins.

Bulls I see as an under. The spacing with Rondo/Wade/Butler is just a wreck, it's another case of serious continuity issues they'll have to overcome (if they can), and it's more injury prone players. Plus Rondo's now 30 and Wade's in his mid 30's. Even in their prime I wouldn't love this roster as constructed, but that's just getting too old. 34-35 wins.

nycericanguy
09-21-2016, 07:16 PM
I'm putting big $$$ on the Knicks... it's actually fun to pick a few teams

where do u bet?

JordansBulls
09-21-2016, 07:21 PM
Bulls 38.5 wins:censored:

Does this look like a team who will only get 38.5 wins when Wade and Rondo like this?
https://grammio.com/en/dwyanewade/BJyIB8MhArq/

777931312879562752

Bulls will win between 57-63 games this season in 2017.

nycericanguy
09-21-2016, 07:31 PM
Bulls 38.5 wins:censored:

Does this look like a team who will only get 38.5 wins when Wade and Rondo like this?
https://grammio.com/en/dwyanewade/BJyIB8MhArq/

777931312879562752

Bulls will win between 57-63 games this season in 2017.

Rondo's always been in great shape, fitness isn't the issue with him or the Bulls.

tredigs
09-21-2016, 08:23 PM
Bucks are without Kris Middleton this year, and they were a 33 win team with him last year. Terrible blow for a team that has no legit floor spacers other than him. Even if Giannis improves, they're not pushing .500. I think it's more likely that they regress and have 29-32 wins.

nycericanguy
09-21-2016, 08:28 PM
Bucks are without Kris Middleton this year, and they were a 33 win team with him last year. Terrible blow for a team that has no legit floor spacers other than him. Even if Giannis improves, they're not pushing .500. I think it's more likely that they regress and have 29-32 wins.

wow will vegas change their o/u? if not i'm taking the under on 39.5 now

tredigs
09-21-2016, 09:09 PM
wow will vegas change their o/u? if not i'm taking the under on 39.5 now

Yeah, I mean their defense with Greg Monroe as their anchor was already a huge drop off last year from 2 years ago (one reason for their regression last year), and Middleton was arguably their best defender. So beyond the hole of losing your best perimeter option and leading scorer, they get even worse defensively. Plus he has essentially no backup, so I'm not sure what they're going to do about that. Look to trade for somebody I guess, but they're definitely not going to get a replacement of his caliber of course.

I'm not huge on future-bets because I'm impatient and I'll probably just bet against them huge to start the season in single games, but it's definitely FAR more likely that they lose less than 39 games than otherwise. It is now by far the best bet on this list.

Their salary-level is already at 103 million by the way, so their options are limited even if they did want to test the trade market.

Bruno
09-21-2016, 09:51 PM
hopefully nobody bet on the Bucks yet. how many games will the line drop now?

IndyRealist
09-23-2016, 11:34 AM
Revising my "push" on Milwaukee in light of the Beasley trade. Taking the under.

tp13baby
09-23-2016, 11:44 AM
Denver improves 1 game while getting another year with their core and their veterans back healthy? I'll take the over and gladly take my money.

IndyRealist
09-23-2016, 12:43 PM
Looks like Bosh's blood clots have reoccurred. He was likely going to be more of a distraction than a help if he played. The lane is more open with McRoberts in instead of Bosh, Dragic and Winslow should both be better. I will cautiously take the over.

ChiTownPacerFan
09-24-2016, 10:43 AM
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/vegas-releases-2016-17-nba-season-overunder-win-totals-for-every-team/

Atlanta Hawks 43.5 Under
Boston Celtics 51.5 Under
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 Over
Charlotte Hornets 39.5 Over
Chicago Bulls 38.5 Over
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Under
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 Over
Denver Nuggets 34.5 Under
Detroit Pistons 45.5 Under
Golden State Warriors 66.5 Over
Houston Rockets 41.5 Over
Indiana Pacers 43.5 Over
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 Under
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 Under
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 Under
Miami Heat 36.5 Under
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 Under
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 Over
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 Under
New York Knicks 38.5 Under
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 Over
Orlando Magic 36.5 Over
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 Under
Phoenix Suns 26.5 Under
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 Over
Sacramento Kings 32.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 Over
Toronto Raptors 49.5 Over
Utah Jazz 47.5 Under
Washington Wizards 42.5 Over

Bolded are the best bets.

ChiTownPacerFan
09-24-2016, 10:49 AM
Denver improves 1 game while getting another year with their core and their veterans back healthy? I'll take the over and gladly take my money.

Or... Denver wins more games in an extremely difficult conference despite not adding any notable players?? Don't see the Nuggets taking a step forward with their current roster.

Vinylman
09-24-2016, 08:10 PM
Phoenix is the easiest bet on there... unless they are decimated with injuries again there is no way they win less than 35 games

nycericanguy
09-25-2016, 09:52 AM
Phoenix is the easiest bet on there... unless they are decimated with injuries again there is no way they win less than 35 games

i'm not sure they win more than 35. their 3 best players are all small guards and they are too young to be putting them as locks for 36 wins. young teams have to learn how to win.

5ass
09-25-2016, 03:07 PM
Bolded are the best bets.

I think the Magic will definitely win more. Vogel won like 38 games when Paul George was out, and George Hill played half the season. Their leader in minutes was Solomon Hill...

They won 35 games last year, and improved significantly IMO. I'm expecting a 0.500ish record, and a high probability of making the play offs. Good defensive teams make the play offs far more often than not. For the last 6 years, the top 10 defensive teams each season made the play offs 90% of the time. With Payton, Ibaka, Gordon, Biyombo and Vogel I think there's a lot of defensive potential. I'm excited. My hope throughout the rebuild was always for the Magic to build an elite defensive team, and I have high hopes for Vogel.

PhillyFaninLA
09-25-2016, 04:44 PM
So Vegas thinks higher of the Sixers than LAL, Nets, and Suns. [emoji848]

I have the Sixers at 30 so I think its a great betting line for the Sixers

IndyRealist
09-26-2016, 08:57 AM
I think the Magic will definitely win more. Vogel won like 38 games when Paul George was out, and George Hill played half the season. Their leader in minutes was Solomon Hill...

They won 35 games last year, and improved significantly IMO. I'm expecting a 0.500ish record, and a high probability of making the play offs. Good defensive teams make the play offs far more often than not. For the last 6 years, the top 10 defensive teams each season made the play offs 90% of the time. With Payton, Ibaka, Gordon, Biyombo and Vogel I think there's a lot of defensive potential. I'm excited. My hope throughout the rebuild was always for the Magic to build an elite defensive team, and I have high hopes for Vogel.

That's a lot of paint protection, but who defends on the perimeter? George Hill, Solomon Hill, those guys are fantastic wing defenders, even without Paul George.

Historically Vogel used the perimeter guys to funnel ballhandlers into the shotblockers. Deny the 3, deny the paint. That requires fast, long armed guys at 1-3. It's also really weak against middle pick 'n pop. Does Orlando have the wings to pull it off?

TheDish87
09-26-2016, 10:00 AM
Atlanta Hawks 43.5 push Schroeder right now is not better than Teague, right now
Boston Celtics 51.5 push
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 push
Charlotte Hornets 39.5 OVER They are getting MKG back, who is vastly underrated bc he doesn't score
Chicago Bulls 38.5 push but I'm guessing over. If Rondo's going to defer to anybody, it's going to be Wade
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 push
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 OVER Betting on Barnes. Also underrated bc he doesn't score
Denver Nuggets 34.5 push
Detroit Pistons 45.5 OVER That team works a lot better than I thought they would, I see them improving
Golden State Warriors 66.5 OVER I'm worried about the losses, but -7?!
Houston Rockets 41.5 UNDER I don't feel like they improved, and they lost depth
Indiana Pacers 43.5 push Probably break .500 with a new coach/system, but it'll be close
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 UNDER until Doc cuts Austin
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 UNDER Ingram isn't the type of rookie to have a huge impact year 1. He'll put up #s
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 OVER if they abandon the running game, otherwise push
Miami Heat 36.5 push with the Bosh drama
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 push seems reasonable
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 push too hard to predict
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 OVER expect a bounce back year from AD, Solomon Hill is gonna kill it
New York Knicks 38.5 UNDER Derrick Rose is a net negative and you can't bench him
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 OVER I see 50 being more reasonable, but could easily push on this one
Orlando Magic 36.5 push still not sure what they're doing
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 UNDER a rookie Simmons is not worth 17 wins
Phoenix Suns 26.5 push they're a mess. they could be 30 or they could be 15
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 push but likely under
Sacramento Kings 32.5 UNDER I see that team exploding with the Rudy Gay drama going on
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 OVER I would never bet -11 against Pop. They're going to be much faster now
Toronto Raptors 49.5 OVER Biyombo was not that much of a factor during the season. Sullinger will fit
Utah Jazz 47.5 push though close to over. Hill is better than any PG they've had in a while
Washington Wizards 42.5 UNDER Wall had 2 knee procedures this summer

im not sure you understand how this works? you cant push on a number with a .5

Hawkeye15
09-26-2016, 10:17 AM
Phoenix is the easiest bet on there... unless they are decimated with injuries again there is no way they win less than 35 games

at this point, Bledsoe shouldn't be counted on to stay healthy. I do think they have young talent, and 35 is about right for them next season.

IndyRealist
09-26-2016, 01:40 PM
im not sure you understand how this works? you cant push on a number with a .5

I can choose to not bet on it. The odds are too close to what I think will actually happen to feel comfortable going over or under.

5ass
09-26-2016, 02:20 PM
That's a lot of paint protection, but who defends on the perimeter? George Hill, Solomon Hill, those guys are fantastic wing defenders, even without Paul George.

Historically Vogel used the perimeter guys to funnel ballhandlers into the shotblockers. Deny the 3, deny the paint. That requires fast, long armed guys at 1-3. It's also really weak against middle pick 'n pop. Does Orlando have the wings to pull it off?

Payton and Gordon are good perimeter defenders with elite defensive potential. Payton is 6'4 with a good wingspan, and tenacious defense. He was a good defender even as a rookie, and that's not easy to do. Gordon is 6'9 with a good wingspan (he'll be playing SF), and elite quickness/mobility for his size. He's going to be special on that end IMO. Then you have 6'7 Fournier and 6'9 Mario at SG. Both need to improve their defense, but Mario has the tools to be a legitimately good defender. Fournier has been improving and was decent last year.

R!kSm!tz
09-27-2016, 10:48 AM
Could somebody give a me quick rundown of how this betting works? I'm thinking about betting on over with the Bulls, under with the Heat, under with the Wizards, and under on the Jazz. The Bucks are a tough decision because even though they lost Middleton their young guys are a year older and will all be better. This is also going to force Jabari, Giannis, and Monroe to be more aggressive which is a positive.

So if I were to bet $5000 on a team going over what would that get me? Does it matter how many games over they win?

TheDish87
09-27-2016, 01:37 PM
well you would be an idiot to bet 5k on a future bet like that when 1 injury or 1 trade can have a drastic impact on the outcome. But for the sake of the question it just has to go over or under by any number to win, a push/tie is a no bet. i dout your typical bookie would offer something like this so you would have to find an offshore online account and be able to front the money.

tp13baby
09-27-2016, 01:50 PM
Or... Denver wins more games in an extremely difficult conference despite not adding any notable players?? Don't see the Nuggets taking a step forward with their current roster.

Keep sleeping. Getting Gallo back, Wilson Chandler back and any improvement from Mudiay, Jokic, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Barton with Murray, yeah we aren't too far from an 9 seed and thats not a 34 win seed.

Chronz
09-27-2016, 02:20 PM
Could somebody give a me quick rundown of how this betting works? I'm thinking about betting on over with the Bulls, under with the Heat, under with the Wizards, and under on the Jazz. The Bucks are a tough decision because even though they lost Middleton their young guys are a year older and will all be better. This is also going to force Jabari, Giannis, and Monroe to be more aggressive which is a positive.

So if I were to bet $5000 on a team going over what would that get me? Does it matter how many games over they win?
Ill pm you within the day but i want your first born

Chronz
09-27-2016, 02:24 PM
Keep sleeping. Getting Gallo back, Wilson Chandler back and any improvement from Mudiay, Jokic, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Barton with Murray, yeah we aren't too far from an 9 seed and thats not a 34 win seed.

Gallo is key. Dude is so underrated i kinda feel bad that i voted melo above him. He's chalk full of intangibles. He's gonna be healthy this year, he has to

TheDish87
09-27-2016, 03:28 PM
Keep sleeping. Getting Gallo back, Wilson Chandler back and any improvement from Mudiay, Jokic, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Barton with Murray, yeah we aren't too far from an 9 seed and thats not a 34 win seed.

who says they all improve? not enough ball to go around for everyone to maximized. i dont beleive in a team with Muddiay running the point.

5ass
09-27-2016, 04:46 PM
who says they all improve? not enough ball to go around for everyone to maximized. i dont beleive in a team with Muddiay running the point.

They won 33 last season with a rookie Mudiay and a rookie coach. Another year of experience and gelling together will help. Mudiay will likely improve as most rookies do. Harris has been showing improvement and is entering his third year. Nurkic needs to be healthy. Jokic is entering his second year and will likely improve. I could see them winning 36-38. They could surprise us all and make the play offs in the weak west. They might not need more than 40 wins.

TheDish87
09-27-2016, 04:51 PM
i mean is 3 more wins hardly is an improvement overall. they have some interesting pieces but someone needs to really emerge from the pack.

R!kSm!tz
09-27-2016, 05:13 PM
Ill pm you within the day but i want your first born

Its all yours lol.

Vinylman
09-28-2016, 08:14 AM
i'm not sure they win more than 35. their 3 best players are all small guards and they are too young to be putting them as locks for 36 wins. young teams have to learn how to win.

the O/U on phoenix is 26.5

like I said... barring injuries this is the clearest money maker on that list

Vinylman
09-28-2016, 08:16 AM
at this point, Bledsoe shouldn't be counted on to stay healthy. I do think they have young talent, and 35 is about right for them next season.

which would be WAY OVER ... like I said... easy bet

nycericanguy
09-28-2016, 08:56 AM
the O/U on phoenix is 26.5

like I said... barring injuries this is the clearest money maker on that list

oh for some reason i thought it was 35 which is reasonable. 26.5, i might get in on that...lol

IndyRealist
09-28-2016, 10:02 AM
Payton and Gordon are good perimeter defenders with elite defensive potential. Payton is 6'4 with a good wingspan, and tenacious defense. He was a good defender even as a rookie, and that's not easy to do. Gordon is 6'9 with a good wingspan (he'll be playing SF), and elite quickness/mobility for his size. He's going to be special on that end IMO. Then you have 6'7 Fournier and 6'9 Mario at SG. Both need to improve their defense, but Mario has the tools to be a legitimately good defender. Fournier has been improving and was decent last year.

I think i'm OK with Gordon playing SF, though he has elite quickness at PF and I'm not sure that translates to the wing. I'll have to take your word on the rest. They were middle of the pack defensively last year with a defensive head coach.

Hawkeye15
09-28-2016, 02:20 PM
which would be WAY OVER ... like I said... easy bet

oh snap, I didn't see they were pegged that low. Yeah, they win more than that, even if I don't think they sniff playoffs.

5ass
09-28-2016, 03:48 PM
I think i'm OK with Gordon playing SF, though he has elite quickness at PF and I'm not sure that translates to the wing. I'll have to take your word on the rest. They were middle of the pack defensively last year with a defensive head coach.

On defense, there's no doubt you want Gordon covering SFs over PFs. He's got elite potential as far as perimeter defense. He was our best defender last season and he'll get more minutes. Tobias and Frye are gone. No more front courts with them alongside Vucevic which was bad for the defense. Instead Ibaka will play a lot of minutes with Vucevic and help cover for his weaknesses. The presence of Biyombo will also help hide Vucevic's weaknesses defensively, and I sont think he'll be a liability this season. Yes Skiles is a defensive coach, but he still didn't maximize the teams' defensive production. We had no shot blocker/rim protector and Skiles still played Jason Smith over Dedmon. He didn't play Gordon many minutes and use his defensive talent. He had Fournier out of position and had him guarding LBJ/PG/Butler ect. for long stretches. Even in end of game scenarios when he needed a defensive line up he would not put the Magic's best defenders. Instead at times he had some of their worst defenders in there.

Chronz
09-28-2016, 05:55 PM
Could somebody give a me quick rundown of how this betting works? I'm thinking about betting on over with the Bulls, under with the Heat, under with the Wizards, and under on the Jazz.
Where do you live?


The Bucks are a tough decision because even though they lost Middleton their young guys are a year older and will all be better. This is also going to force Jabari, Giannis, and Monroe to be more aggressive which is a positive.

Well they lost a guy who was holding back himself, his teammates were already being more aggressive than they should have been if it were an equal opportunity offense but since they all share the same weaknesses he was literally the ONLY one who could operate as an outlet option. To me what they lost in floor spacing more than accounts for whatever freedom they gain with the ball. They will suck bro


So if I were to bet $5000 on a team going over what would that get me? Does it matter how many games over they win?

Its basically a 50/50 split minus the books juice. I know those margins matter more the more you bet but I honestly dont go that deep into it.

Sssmush
09-29-2016, 05:29 AM
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/vegas-releases-2016-17-nba-season-overunder-win-totals-for-every-team/

Atlanta Hawks 43.5
Boston Celtics 51.5
Brooklyn Nets 20.5
Charlotte Hornets 39.5
Chicago Bulls 38.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5
Dallas Mavericks 39.5
Denver Nuggets 34.5
Detroit Pistons 45.5
Golden State Warriors 66.5
Houston Rockets 41.5
Indiana Pacers 43.5
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5
Miami Heat 36.5
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5
New York Knicks 38.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5
Orlando Magic 36.5
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5
Phoenix Suns 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5
Sacramento Kings 32.5
San Antonio Spurs 56.5
Toronto Raptors 49.5
Utah Jazz 47.5
Washington Wizards 42.5


I know I am a Lakers fan, but objectively I think that 24.5 for the Lakers is way off. I don't usually bet on sports but if that is still on the board and I am in Vegas I think I maybe gotta put something down on that. Value bet.

I was gonna say that the Clippers is high at 53.5... but the more I think about it that one might be right at the nexus of probability and a total coinflip. Same thing with the Knicks, I was thinking definitely take the under, but thinking about it 38.5 might be perfectly calibrated so that it is a coinflip also.

The Houston bet looks low to me... I would definitely take the over on Houston and I think there is clear value there.

Celtics and OKC numbers look to be right on, coinflip territory.

Miami is a question mark. I guess they are just figuring that the character of Riley will guarantee Miami 37 wins in the weak East. But they are so decimated right now, maybe this is the year Miami decides to tank and that line ends up being off by 20.

Actually maybe we should come up with a bet, that is a Sum-Difference-On_Over/Unders.

So let's say that for every game that a team either goes under or over it's over/under line, beyond a 1 game difference, we count as 1.

So for example, if the Wizards line is 42.5, and the Wizards win 44.5 we count that as 1.

(42.5 + 1 = 43.5)
44.5 - 43.5 = 1

Or say if San Antonio win 54.5 then that is two games UNDER, so we also count that as 1

(56.5 - 1 = 55.5)
(56.5 - 55.5 = 1)

Then you add up the total games all the over/unders were collectively off by.

I'm gonna say the over/under on that is like maybe a 100 LoL

tp13baby
09-29-2016, 03:18 PM
who says they all improve? not enough ball to go around for everyone to maximized. i dont beleive in a team with Muddiay running the point.

Mudiay had nagging injuries all year, Malone has already talked about how much better he looks. He was averaging 16ppg 5apg the last month. If he doesn't Jamal Murray is a hell of a lot better than Nelson, who started for half the year because Mudiay was injured.


They won 33 last season with a rookie Mudiay and a rookie coach. Another year of experience and gelling together will help. Mudiay will likely improve as most rookies do. Harris has been showing improvement and is entering his third year. Nurkic needs to be healthy. Jokic is entering his second year and will likely improve. I could see them winning 36-38. They could surprise us all and make the play offs in the weak west. They might not need more than 40 wins.

Nurkic lost 35 lbs this offseason which will help. Mudiay will be better.


i mean is 3 more wins hardly is an improvement overall. they have some interesting pieces but someone needs to really emerge from the pack.

Or if we aren't one (4th) of the most injured teams like last year. Also 4th most salary lost to injury last year too. The most games missed due to injury out of top 7 rotation players in the league.

If the injury bug doesn't kill us, Jokic will likely get better, Nurkic lost 35 lbs and is finally healthy, Mudiay improved greatly in the second half and is finally healthy, Harris/Barton made big strides and getting Chandler who missed last season and Gallo back will only help.

ChiTownPacerFan
04-13-2017, 04:33 AM
I went 16-14. Fun to look back at some good, and some really bad, predictions.

JAZZNC
04-13-2017, 05:49 AM
Lot of people including Vegas slept on the Jazz. Crazy they went over with the ridiculous amount of injuries they had. Houston obviously was way over. Definitely interesting looking at this in hindsight.

Vinylman
04-13-2017, 08:26 AM
I guess vegas knew that Phoenix would tank hard the last 20 games ... losing 15 out of 16 at one point

that is impressive tanking

tp13baby
04-13-2017, 08:40 AM
Keep sleeping. Getting Gallo back, Wilson Chandler back and any improvement from Mudiay, Jokic, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Barton with Murray, yeah we aren't too far from an 9 seed and thats not a 34 win seed.

The amount of hate Denver got, and being the most games lost to injury in the league we were 5.5 games over Vegas odds. Called it.

valade16
04-13-2017, 10:33 AM
Looking back, collectively PSD was wrong on 90% of the safe/easy bets we thought for the over lol.

tredigs
04-13-2017, 10:51 AM
Looking back, collectively PSD was wrong on 90% of the safe/easy bets we thought for the over lol.

Lol right. Middleton's early return turned the Bucks from an Under to an Over relatively fast.

valade16
04-13-2017, 11:01 AM
The only 2 teams that Vegas was off on by 10 or more wins/losses were:

The Timberwolves: Vegas over projected them 10 wins

The Rockets: Vegas underpredicted them by over 10 losses.

Given that, how is Harden not MVP?

tredigs
04-13-2017, 11:02 AM
Warriors another one I wouldn't have bet the over on (or under for that matter) even though we knew mid 60's were easily in play. Last game of the season they got it.

Wonder if anyone here actually made the bets..

tredigs
04-13-2017, 11:04 AM
The only 2 teams that Vegas was off on by 10 or more wins/losses were:

The Timberwolves: Vegas over projected them 10 wins

The Rockets: Vegas underpredicted them by over 10 losses.

Given that, how is Harden not MVP?

Didn't get enough defensive rebounds on Free Throws.

Slug3
04-13-2017, 01:16 PM
The only 2 teams that Vegas was off on by 10 or more wins/losses were:

The Timberwolves: Vegas over projected them 10 wins

The Rockets: Vegas underpredicted them by over 10 losses.

Given that, how is Harden not MVP?

Because just last year almost everyone was saying how hard it would be to average a triple double. Honestly Westbrook and Harden both deserve this award but only one can win. Would be neat if somehow after all the votes they both tie to win it.

valade16
04-13-2017, 01:26 PM
Because just last year almost everyone was saying how hard it would be to average a triple double. Honestly Westbrook and Harden both deserve this award but only one can win. Would be neat if somehow after all the votes they both tie to win it.

It would be very neat but the chances of that happening are almost astronomically low.

Htownballa1622
04-13-2017, 04:17 PM
:cool:

MJNetsIsles
04-13-2017, 05:47 PM
I'm putting big $$$ on the Knicks... it's actually fun to pick a few teams

Ouch

More-Than-Most
04-13-2017, 06:15 PM
only had the worst record once.. 27 wins is a massive leap after winning 9 or so... I think they win 30 plus and people called me a moron... Embiid is a god the likes of which this league has not seen from a big in quite sometime.


To be fair, anyone can look like a God dunking in practice.

:laugh:

28 wins with no simmons and embiid for 31 games... no noel and no oka for most of the season... think about that... now we have guys like Saric/TLC/Covington who all look great or insane and the topper is embiid/simmons if they can stay healthy... the sixers are going to be so scary... that being said look at flash and his bias/hate from day 1 on embiid... tells the entire story right there. He hates embiid sooooo much lol

Chronz
04-13-2017, 08:31 PM
The only 2 teams that Vegas was off on by 10 or more wins/losses were:

The Timberwolves: Vegas over projected them 10 wins

The Rockets: Vegas underpredicted them by over 10 losses.

Given that, how is Harden not MVP?

I question how much a return to normalcy should matter here. Last years Rockets clearly underachieved by this same barometer. We didn't know just how bad the chemistry was there, they then upgraded the roster to perfectly fit the gm/coaching style of play. Its like we're punishing RWB for not dropping the ball and letting us down. Imagine if instead of having this type of season, RWB has a subpar year and the Thunder miss the playoffs as a result. The following season, he has this current season hes having and the Thunder outdo their expected record. Are you telling me hes finally then worthy despite the same feat?


Put it this way, if RWB was considered a favorite for MVP coming into the season DESPITE his teams projected record, doesn't it tell you how highly they thought his impact would be? I guess Harden reemergence changes that tho

mngopher35
04-13-2017, 08:49 PM
Also as I pointed out in the MVP thread if you consider where they were last year and who they added you expected near bottom of the league defense with near top of the league offense. The defense playing better than expected and being near average is a major part of their record and Harden isn't a major influence on that end.

tredigs
04-13-2017, 08:52 PM
Also as I pointed out in the MVP thread if you consider where they were last year and who they added you expected near bottom of the league defense with near top of the league offense. The defense playing better than expected and being near average is a major part of their record and Harden isn't a major influence on that end.

Indeed, it had an effect. As did Westbrook leading a league average offense but was no help to a top 10 Defense.

mngopher35
04-13-2017, 09:00 PM
Indeed, it had an effect. As did Westbrook leading a league average offense but was no help to a top 10 Defense.

Westy definitely didn't help his defense either but my point is if we are basing just off the expectations to results we can't overlook that factor. The offense added Dantoni, Anderson, Gordon and jumped from 7th-2nd (seems expected to improve based on additions). The surprise was the defense.

Westy/Harden weren't expected to dominate defensively, Westy was expected to carry a bad offense while Harden was expected to carry a good one.

tredigs
04-13-2017, 09:07 PM
Westy definitely didn't help his defense either but my point is if we are basing just off the expectations to results we can't overlook that factor. The offense added Dantoni, Anderson, Gordon and jumped from 7th-2nd (seems expected to improve based on additions). The surprise was the defense.

Westy/Harden weren't expected to dominate defensively, Westy was expected to carry a bad offense while Harden was expected to carry a good one.

I agree, and we can say that the bigger surprise in Houston was their health from guys like Ryno and especially Gordon. I did think a D ranked 15-20 was reasonable for them if they had a potent enough offense that others were gunning to keep up, but for many that was a stretch. I will say that OKC (see: Westbrook's) style of play makes them a much easier out in the playoffs. A team with good D Will just demolish an offense that has a focal point so myopic (especially when he can't be relied on to stretch the floor with a 3 ball).

mngopher35
04-13-2017, 09:19 PM
I agree, and we can say that the bigger surprise in Houston was their health from guys like Ryno and especially Gordon. I did think a D ranked 15-20 was reasonable for them if they had a potent enough offense that others were gunning to keep up, but for many that was a stretch. I will say that OKC (see: Westbrook's) style of play makes them a much easier out in the playoffs. A team with good D Will just demolish an offense that has a focal point so myopic (especially when he can't be relied on to stretch the floor with a 3 ball).

Ya I think they will go out first round probably tbh, they are so lacking in playmaking.

I didn't even think about the health aspect, that was a question for their additions which worked out nice.

mngopher35
04-13-2017, 09:20 PM
I also am a little surprised their defense wasn't bottom 10, I would have likely been one calling that a stretch.

tredigs
04-13-2017, 09:23 PM
I also am a little surprised their defense wasn't bottom 10, I would have likely been one calling that a stretch.

I think I thought they would be top end of bottom third with top 15 as a stretch (trying to remember talks with Hawk) but they outperformed on all fronts. MVP wise it's very close for me. Kawhi included.

mngopher35
04-13-2017, 09:29 PM
I think I thought they would be top end of bottom third with top 15 as a stretch (trying to remember talks with Hawk) but they outperformed on all fronts. MVP wise it's very close for me. Kawhi included.

Ya I prefer Westy this year but any of the 3 make some sense depending on how you look at it.

Glad you added in Kawhi, despite not having the gaudy numbers he should be a little more in the discussion. Traditionally speaking with the top seeds normally getting advantages I feel he might have the best argument.

tredigs
04-13-2017, 10:21 PM
Ya I prefer Westy this year but any of the 3 make some sense depending on how you look at it.

Glad you added in Kawhi, despite not having the gaudy numbers he should be a little more in the discussion. Traditionally speaking with the top seeds normally getting advantages I feel he might have the best argument.

His case suffers from a lack of crazy stats and our perceived notion as fans that ~60ish wins is normal (for them). Sometimes dominance become redundant and that's a shame.

FlashBolt
04-13-2017, 11:21 PM
:laugh:

28 wins with no simmons and embiid for 31 games... no noel and no oka for most of the season... think about that... now we have guys like Saric/TLC/Covington who all look great or insane and the topper is embiid/simmons if they can stay healthy... the sixers are going to be so scary... that being said look at flash and his bias/hate from day 1 on embiid... tells the entire story right there. He hates embiid sooooo much lol

It's not really that impressive considering you guys just keep on tanking for picks year after year. You guys haven't been competitive until like the Iggy/Turner days. Saric is a beast, though.q

mightybosstone
04-15-2017, 01:18 AM
some noteables for me

Knicks
DAL
ATL

easily OVER on those 3, DAL is going to have an underrated squad. And Howard I think is better than Horford, I don't see ATL falling off that much to barely .500.

and UNDER on POR winning 47 games. They had a great year last season but now there will be added pressure and expectations. Going to be hard for them to do even better than last year.


wow will vegas change their o/u? if not i'm taking the under on 39.5 now

So, I hate to be that guy, but when I saw this got bumped, I just glanced at the first page to see if anyone nailed or whiffed on any predictions. :laugh:

TheDish87
04-17-2017, 12:06 PM
the O/U on phoenix is 26.5

like I said... barring injuries this is the clearest money maker on that list

ouch

tredigs
04-17-2017, 03:09 PM
I'd be bummed if I bet the under on the Bucks thinking Middleton was out all year. That was a big topic here. They were going under, but he came back and they won 17 of the 23 games he started. Just such a more balanced and better team on both ends with him on the court. Plus Giannis becoming better than any of us could have expected this season didn't hurt. That's why over/under bets are so hard and so rarely worth the time/risk. Good on them though. Hope they take out the Raps in round 1.

Hawkeye15
04-17-2017, 03:28 PM
I think I thought they would be top end of bottom third with top 15 as a stretch (trying to remember talks with Hawk) but they outperformed on all fronts. MVP wise it's very close for me. Kawhi included.

I truthfully thought the Rockets would be a bottom 5 defense, hover around top 5-10 offense, meaning a .500 record or so. Meh

LA4life24/8
04-19-2017, 01:31 PM
ouch

They tanked so hard... they easily coulda/woulda won more games than that.

lol, please
04-19-2017, 01:48 PM
Looking back, collectively PSD was wrong on 90% of the safe/easy bets we thought for the over lol.
Hindsight is 20/20.


Warriors another one I wouldn't have bet the over on (or under for that matter) even though we knew mid 60's were easily in play. Last game of the season they got it.

Wonder if anyone here actually made the bets..

I had money on the Warriors but not much lol.

I love futures.

Can't get into those live stakes you like, I'm way too busy trying to enjoy the game or grab another drink to play quarter by quarter, don't know how you do it.

Vinylman
04-21-2017, 12:18 PM
ouch

yep... I also bet it....

of course it is hard to assume such a ridiculous tank at the end of the year but that be the risk...

They are way better than a 26.5 win team if they just play their best players