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View Full Version : Great NylonCalculus piece on the top players retiring this past year



Scoots
08-27-2016, 12:50 AM
http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/08/24/breaking-down-kobe-vs-duncan/

JasonJohnHorn
08-27-2016, 01:06 PM
TL;DR: Duncan > Kobe

I give that a +1


;-)

Chronz
08-27-2016, 01:38 PM
At first glance it looked like the standard stat based argument but it does raise the question that many of us have argued here, that is, just how important is ones efficiency if you dont create for others much. Kobe is a better #1 option for a teams offense than someone like Anthony Davis, despite how insanely efficient he was 2 seasons back. The reason is because Kobe's value goes above and beyond his own production whereas a guy like Davis is completely reliant on his production to impact the game, as he has no floor game. These influences are often found in +/- based analysis which is why its always important to consider as many variables as possible to form an opinion on a player.

I brought this up with Nash vs Amare (Tmac vs Yao) in a thread not too long ago.

We saw Amare in NY not be anywhere near as dominant as he was in Phx, what do we attribute that to if not Nash's superior impact on the game? When I see the Pelicans continue to overachieve in Davis's absence, I get the sense that alot of what he brings is redundant, hes like a highly talented/skilled version of Javale McGee, a stiff who put up all-star caliber production.


One thing I'd like to try in the case of Kobe, lets just attribute his teams offensive rebounding improvement to the attention he draws and apply that to his personal stat line, what would his efficiency numbers look like if we added the +2.3% increase in rebounding? We'd obviously had to do this for everyone but Im almost positive Kobe would stand out as the guy who gains the most from this.


How crazy would it be if a could a case be made that a perimeter player like Kobe is actually more advantageous to a team trying to increase its offensive rebounding efficiency than bigmen with demonstrably higher offensive rebounding %'s? I honestly wouldn't know where to begin with this but I hope those egg heads get on stuff like that. Im always interested in breaking down the 2 sides of the coin, your individual production vs its influence on the team.

Chronz
08-27-2016, 01:48 PM
Just looked it up, Kobes team are +2.3 offensive rebounding%, Duncans teams are +.4. I know Pop resisted the urge to attack the glass and thats why you usually saw Duncan/D-Rob practically take turns leading the game/season in offensive rebounding%, only 1 of them was allowed to attack the glass at a time. But still, this is an offensive factor we should consider when comparing the 2.


Kobe is the best offensive player to retire this year, Duncan was the best defender to never win DPOY and arguably deserved 3 at the least. Just thinking it out rationally, if we apply that offensive rebounding credit to Kobe we then have to concede the fact that he was simply not a game changer defensively as there is no influence in the raw numbers, much less a Duncan type dominance defensively. Much of what Kobe brings defensively is easily replicated and shared among a plethora of perimeter players with many others providing more versatility. I used to get **** for this but I told anyone that would listen that Maurice Evans was a more consistent defender than Kobe, at least in the RS.

Scoots
08-27-2016, 02:18 PM
At first glance it looked like the standard stat based argument but it does raise the question that many of us have argued here, that is, just how important is ones efficiency if you dont create for others much. Kobe is a better #1 option for a teams offense than someone like Anthony Davis, despite how insanely efficient he was 2 seasons back. The reason is because Kobe's value goes above and beyond his own production whereas a guy like Davis is completely reliant on his production to impact the game, as he has no floor game. These influences are often found in +/- based analysis which is why its always important to consider as many variables as possible to form an opinion on a player.

I brought this up with Nash vs Amare (Tmac vs Yao) in a thread not too long ago.

We saw Amare in NY not be anywhere near as dominant as he was in Phx, what do we attribute that to if not Nash's superior impact on the game? When I see the Pelicans continue to overachieve in Davis's absence, I get the sense that alot of what he brings is redundant, hes like a highly talented/skilled version of Javale McGee, a stiff who put up all-star caliber production.


One thing I'd like to try in the case of Kobe, lets just attribute his teams offensive rebounding improvement to the attention he draws and apply that to his personal stat line, what would his efficiency numbers look like if we added the +2.3% increase in rebounding? We'd obviously had to do this for everyone but Im almost positive Kobe would stand out as the guy who gains the most from this.


How crazy would it be if a could a case be made that a perimeter player like Kobe is actually more advantageous to a team trying to increase its offensive rebounding efficiency than bigmen with demonstrably higher offensive rebounding %'s? I honestly wouldn't know where to begin with this but I hope those egg heads get on stuff like that. Im always interested in breaking down the 2 sides of the coin, your individual production vs its influence on the team.

Just as defensive rebounding is an over-valued skill/stat, offensive rebounding is under-valued. The problem with attributing offensive rebounding to other players is that good offensive rebounders are rare and tend to produce similar oRB% regardless of their teammates on the floor. I think offensive rebounding is more about the rebounder's skill than the makeup of the players on the floor.

Now, one could argue that Kobe's megnetism resulted in a slight bump in ORB% and a slight decrease on STL% away from him and maybe a slightly higher rate of passes getting through and a slightly higher rate of teammates having open shots. But +/- isn't really granular enough for that.

mngopher35
08-27-2016, 04:12 PM
Nice article, they did a good job of looking at many facets for comparison of production (between a lot of players). I agree with the conclusion as well that Duncan overall was a better player than Kobe although there is more to it than just what is covered here obviously. I always point to the +/- and RAPM type regressions when it comes to KG because it really helps show that some other metrics don't quite do him justice (imo due to the lack of help), and it really helps show the value with their inclusion of Amare.

As to the point Chronz mentions and has had a thread on I think being the creator or taking defensive attention is a huge factor when evaluating players that the stats like ppg, PER etc don't really cover well all the time. It is why I always point out the difference when one player is a teams first option compared to getting to play off of one of those guys who creates. Nash and Amare is a good example of a player who is creating more being better (nash) but the benefactor of that creation arguably has better stats.

I feel like there was an article on how Harden created offensive rebounding opportunities his MVP race year but they didn't expand to other players iirc. I think many guards/wings who attack a lot and garner attention will help their team in offensive rebounding but it would definitely be interesting to see it actually broken down.