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View Full Version : Ricky Rubio vs Kriss Dunn: Who is the better NBA player next season?



IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 07:24 PM
So the Wolves have a very good PG already in Ricky Rubio. They have potentially a very good rookie in Kris Dunn.

Will Kris Dunn be able to wrestle away the starting job from Ricky next year?

Who is better next season?

mngopher35
08-19-2016, 07:35 PM
This year will be Rubio, rookies don't have major impacts very often and our other players are young so a vet pg helps. I think Dunn is better for the future though once he can learn to run an offense and get some experience.

Bruno
08-19-2016, 07:49 PM
Rubio by a mile, unless he's injured.

Rubio takes a lot of crap about not being able to shoot. but Dunn can't shoot either. Dunn is a pretty good defender as a prospect, but Rubio is already a top defender at this position. Thibs isn't high on rookies and non defenders. He could sour on ZL because of his defense, which would open up more time for Dunn.

Dunn is young and has upside but he's quietly only 3.5 years younger than Rubio. He spent a lot of time in college polishing his game and it shows. if you watch footage of Wolves vs. Nuggets from this years summer league you'd see how Dunn is already more polished and possibly 'better' than Mudiay, which seems surprising because Mudiay already had his rookie year, but Dunn was a four year college player and is two years older than Muiday. it showed in the head to head match up, IMO Mudiay is more talented but Dunn has had more time to work out his kinks.

I expect Thibs to decide within the year if Dunn is the PG of the future, or if Rubio needs to be traded. I could get burned here for making a prediction but I have skepticism for all interesting prospects who didn't start beating up on people until their junior year of college. for that reason, it's possible Dunn becomes a good but not great PG in the league.

Bruno
08-19-2016, 07:53 PM
^and if thats the case, maybe you decide Rubio is the guy who you want defending the one and spoon feeding Towns and Wiggins for the next five years.

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 07:56 PM
Rubio by a mile, unless he's injured.

Rubio takes a lot of crap about not being able to shoot. but Dunn can't shoot either. Dunn is a pretty good defender as a prospect, but Rubio is already a top defender at this position. Thibs isn't high on rookies and non defenders. He could sour on ZL because of his defense, which would open up more time for Dunn.

Dunn is young and has upside but he's quietly only 3.5 years younger than Rubio. He spent a lot of time in college polishing his game and it shows. if you watch footage of Wolves vs. Nuggets from this years summer league you'd see how Dunn is already more polished and possibly 'better' than Mudiay, which seems surprising because Mudiay already had his rookie year, but Dunn was a four year college player and is two years older than Muiday. it showed in the head to head match up, IMO Mudiay is more talented but Dunn has had more time to work out his kinks.

I expect Thibs to decide within the year if Dunn is the PG of the future, or if Rubio needs to be traded. I could get burned here for making a prediction but I have skepticism for all interesting prospects who didn't start beating up on people until their junior year of college. for that reason, it's possible Dunn becomes a good but not great PG in the league.

A good example of a PG's who came out late and balled are Damien Lillard and Steph Curry

Scoots
08-19-2016, 07:59 PM
I think pgs develop better with extra time in college because there is so much roster turnover their roles change and they have to do more things on the floor.

Sent from my LGLS991 using Tapatalk

Bruno
08-19-2016, 08:14 PM
A good example of a PG's who came out late and balled are Damien Lillard and Steph Curry

true. my bias isn't against guys who come out late, its against guys who don't dominate until their junior or senior year.

the thing with Curry is that he was producing as a freshman w over 20 ppg. Lillard had a modest freshman year but his numbers blew up as a sophomore. and both these guys are great shooters in a league thats dictated by shooting and match ups. Dunn doesn't have that advantage.

Tony_Starks
08-19-2016, 08:21 PM
Rubio until they trade him, then Dunn for the rest of their lives.

mngopher35
08-19-2016, 08:31 PM
A good example of a PG's who came out late and balled are Damien Lillard and Steph Curry

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=rubiori01&y2=2010&p2=curryst01&y3=2013&p3=lillada01&p4=&p5=&p6=

Here are the stats for their rookie years against Rubio last season. Even if best case scenario Dunn were that good like Dame/Curry (he definitely isn't shooting/offensively but lets say he could make it there on impact) there is still a great argument Rubio could/would be better just comparing his last year to their rookie years (he is over those two in PER, WS/48, BPM, and was 5th among pg's in RPM). I like Dunn a lot and think he will eventually take over eventually, you are just too early with this like we keep telling you in the Wolves forum. Rookies need to learn the game and especially how to run an offense as a pg, and Rubio is too good in areas outside of scoring for Dunn to immediately be better than.

Especially with our young core next year a pg like Rubio to set everyone up, get people the ball in the right spot etc. is huge. Lavine being tried as a point and off the bench was pretty bad but when he got in the starting lineup as an sg next to Rubio last year he took off. Bruno mentioned a concern Thibs might have with Lavine defensively and overall I think Lavine might have some question marks, but pairing him with Ricky helps alleviate a lot of those issues (limits bad shots/opportunities, maximizing open ones, and defensively being a smart player who can help cover at times for lapses).

Maybe by the trade deadline even a decision could be made that Dunn is for sure the future and close enough, but at this moment Rubio is most likely the better player (can't say it is guaranteed either way until we see him play, just extremely unlikely).

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 11:02 PM
An argument can be made for Rubio but, the production and scoring efficiency is so far apart that I would have to go with the rookies. Can't believe I'm bout to compare Ricky to Bron, but I think Bron in Miami and Ricky last season both were blessed with a lot of wide open 3's. I think Dunn can drive and finish at the rim better than both rookie Curry and Lillard. I think his 3 pt shot isn't as bad as people play it out to be. I'll take 19/6 with 1.5 less PER. My problem with Ricky is he hasn't shown he could score more than he has even if he wanted to.

mngopher35
08-19-2016, 11:29 PM
An argument can be made for Rubio but, the production and scoring efficiency is so far apart that I would have to go with the rookies. Can't believe I'm bout to compare Ricky to Bron, but I think Bron in Miami and Ricky last season both were blessed with a lot of wide open 3's. I think Dunn can drive and finish at the rim better than both rookie Curry and Lillard. I think his 3 pt shot isn't as bad as people play it out to be. I'll take 19/6 with 1.5 less PER. My problem with Ricky is he hasn't shown he could score more than he has even if he wanted to.

I am just showing statistically it is Rubio (including PER which you always use when it comes to Admiral/Lebron/Kobe). Overall I take the vet that knows how to run an offense, is a better creator for his teammates (more assists to make up for lack of scoring), is overall a more efficient offensive player, and is a much better defender as well. There is a very good case to take Rubio here and this is like best case for Dunn so it seems a bit unrealistic to believe Dunn is going to be better than those guys were as rookies.

I get you personally dislike his game but the stats and the eye test all point to a good player despite you always just harping on scoring. It takes a little time to get adjusted to the league even if he is an all star caliber prospect like the guys you mentioned. I have seen you argue PER over a high volume scorer many times on here so I think you can at least understand this side if you are staying consistent (especially with defense/offensive efficiency and even rebounding in Rubio's favor).

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 11:36 PM
But when I argue PER for Bron and Drob, they are both filling up the stat lines. I've never argued PER for a guy scoring half the points. I mean even when Michael Beasly had like a 23 PER but was playing 7 min a game I made a joke about it. Drob and Bron led the league in scoring and they killed it in PER. Huge difference brotha.

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 11:39 PM
For instance I don't put Chris Paul above Kobe even though he has better PER numbers. Despite Wade and Tmac having higher PER than Kobe, I have them all about even with no problem if you say Kobe is the best.

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 11:45 PM
Drob and Lebron are too 5 all time PER numbers and when comparing Drob to Duncan or Hakeem, he's got like 5-6 seasons better than there best season, and I'm still fine with people taking Dream over Drob and Drob had higher PER and points and Blocks than Duncan for like 5 seasons. And more points and Higher PER than dream for 5 seasons. I use PER as part of it but not all of it. And especially not for a guy who's points and offensive efficiency aren't even close. I also stated in the thread title that Ricky was a good PG.

mngopher35
08-19-2016, 11:46 PM
But when I argue PER for Bron and Drob, they are both filling up the stat lines. I've never argued PER for a guy scoring half the points. I mean even when Michael Beasly had like a 23 PER but was playing 7 min a game I made a joke about it. Drob and Bron led the league in scoring and they killed it in PER. Huge difference brotha.

Ok but look at their statlines per 100 possessions to see how they play in similar time/opportunity. Rubio has more rebounds, assists, steals, and is more efficient offensively overall. The point difference is like 9 per 100 possessions and the assist difference is like 6 so overall rubio is right there in production offensively. He is filling up the stat line outside of scoring more than the guys you listed, he even has much better defense and better advanced stats to back it up as I showed. That is my point, if he has all of that in his favor if you are being consistent how can you try to pretend like this side doesn't have merit?

mngopher35
08-19-2016, 11:48 PM
Drob and Lebron are too 5 all time PER numbers and when comparing Drob to Duncan or Hakeem, he's got like 5-6 seasons better than there best season, and I'm still fine with people taking Dream over Drob and Drob had higher PER and points and Blocks than Duncan for like 5 seasons. And more points and Higher PER than dream for 5 seasons. I use PER as part of it but not all of it. And especially not for a guy who's points and offensive efficiency aren't even close. I also stated in the thread title that Ricky was a good PG.

I have already showed you his offensive efficiency was better to the guys he is compared to, how can you say not close?

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 11:48 PM
And the only reason I harp on scoring is not because other guys are better than Rubio at scoring. It's because Rubio is a pretty awful scorer. Maybe the worst Starting PG in the league at scoring. He's an awesome passer and an awesome defender, but because he's possibly the worst scorer, I'd rather not have him. Just me though.

IKnowHoops
08-19-2016, 11:57 PM
Rubio shot 37% from the field. They were like 42% and 44%. His TS was 53% where as there's was 55% and 57%. Now take into account that they are scoring a lot more, and Rubio has to be super selective because he can't shoot or finish unless he's wide open, the margin is far. If Rubio tried to score 17 points a game, his efficiency would be gross. I'm sure Lebron could shoot 80% from the field if he was only going to score 10pts a game by only shooting on wide open shots and Lane drives

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 12:02 AM
Sorry meant to say scoring efficiency, not offensive efficiency.

More-Than-Most
08-20-2016, 12:02 AM
There is only one person I liked more than dunn over the past 2 seasons and that was DLO... Dunn is gonna be so ****ing good.

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 12:09 AM
Rubio shot 37% from the field. They were like 42% and 44%. His TS was 53% where as there's was 55% and 57%. Now take into account that they are scoring a lot more, and Rubio has to be super selective because he can shoot or finish unless he's wide open, the margin is far. If Rubio tried to score 17 points a game, his efficiency would be gross. I'm sure Lebron could shoot 80% from the field if he was only going to score 10pts a game by only shooting on wide open shots and Lane drives

Rubio had an overall ORTG 2 pts higher than them still (takes into account assists/turns as well as scoring efficiency). Edit. 9 pts less but 6 more assists would actually make Rubio "responsible for" more points in the end combining the two. Yes he is a worse scorer but his overall production is similar/better when you include playmaking/efficiency and then his defense is far better which you have yet to address as well.

I don't even know why scoring is a big need for the Wolves anyways given Lavine/Wiggins/Towns who thrived scoring next to Rubio. They are weak in team defense (his strength), setting things up/playmaking for others (his strength), weak rebounding on the wings (he is good for a pg). Scoring is one of the last things this team is in need of given the other players and he excels in areas we are lacking. Dunn will be the starter down the road (maybe even by the end of the year if we are lucky) but unless he is better than Curry/Dame as rookies he won't be above Rubio in terms of impact either.

SeoulBeatz
08-20-2016, 12:17 AM
Rubio, he gets way too much crap for being a solid NBA starter. Dunn's time is coming though.

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 01:24 AM
Ok but look at their statlines per 100 possessions to see how they play in similar time/opportunity. Rubio has more rebounds, assists, steals, and is more efficient offensively overall. The point difference is like 9 per 100 possessions and the assist difference is like 6 so overall rubio is right there in production offensively. He is filling up the stat line outside of scoring more than the guys you listed, he even has much better defense and better advanced stats to back it up as I showed. That is my point, if he has all of that in his favor if you are being consistent how can you try to pretend like this side doesn't have merit?

I won't fault anyone for choosing Rubio. I would take Steph and Damien personally.

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 02:01 AM
I won't fault anyone for choosing Rubio. I would take Steph and Damien personally.

Ok so we differ but you at least think it could go either way to an extent. Given that those two were better scorer/shooters than Dunn in college and their rookie years still might not be good enough to match Rubio with that advantage (at least weren't statistically and you claim that's their biggest advantage to you), I just don't get why you would think Dunn will be better right away? Are you basically saying Dunn will be as good or better than Dame/Curry and pick up his scoring near that level?

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 02:07 AM
Ok so we differ but you at least think it could go either way to an extent. Given that those two were better scorer/shooters than Dunn in college and their rookie years still might not be good enough to match Rubio with that advantage (at least weren't statistically and you claim that's their biggest advantage to you), I just don't get why you would think Dunn will be better right away? Are you basically saying Dunn will be as good or better than Dame/Curry and pick up his scoring near that level?

Well, I think he will be better defensively than both, and I do think he will be as good or better than Damien as a rookie offensively. I think his ability to finish in the paint will be better than both. Plus I guess I don't see a point in starting Rubio since I believe Dunn is the future and will be much better anyway. To me it makes more sense to let our young guys develop, then to try and maximize wins in a year where nothing matters accept good team growth.

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 02:20 AM
Well, I think he will be better defensively than both, and I do think he will be as good or better than Damien as a rookie offensively. I think his ability to finish in the paint will be better than both. Plus I guess I don't see a point in starting Rubio since I believe Dunn is the future and will be much better anyway. To me it makes more sense to let our young guys develop, then to try and maximize wins in a year where nothing matters accept good team growth.

I know your thoughts on what we should do, we have seen it plenty in the Wolves forum. I am trying to get at why you think that. I think you overrate him offensively if you think his scoring is going to be close enough to those guys as rookies making him better offensively (he isn't as good of a playmaker as Rubio so he won't have the same advantage there). His college averages were like 16 a game on .54 TS% last year in college so you essentially are predicting he breaks out in that area rookie year? I think that might be part of where the gap is with him then.

We get that you don't care about winning next year and want to play youth but you have been rooting for Lebron and not watching all the Wolves games since we have been bad (you said yourself). Those that have would like this team to grow and take the next step forward as a unit and Rubio is the best option to make that happen as of right now (but likely not for the future, we agree). The team can still grow plenty without Dunn starting, in fact others likely benefit. Dunn will get plenty of time still and can develop his game learning from Rubio until the time comes to trade him or something.

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 10:00 AM
I know your thoughts on what we should do, we have seen it plenty in the Wolves forum. I am trying to get at why you think that. I think you overrate him offensively if you think his scoring is going to be close enough to those guys as rookies making him better offensively (he isn't as good of a playmaker as Rubio so he won't have the same advantage there). His college averages were like 16 a game on .54 TS% last year in college so you essentially are predicting he breaks out in that area rookie year? I think that might be part of where the gap is with him then.

We get that you don't care about winning next year and want to play youth but you have been rooting for Lebron and not watching all the Wolves games since we have been bad (you said yourself). Those that have would like this team to grow and take the next step forward as a unit and Rubio is the best option to make that happen as of right now (but likely not for the future, we agree). The team can still grow plenty without Dunn starting, in fact others likely benefit. Dunn will get plenty of time still and can develop his game learning from Rubio until the time comes to trade him or something.

Both Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning were not great as rookies. I'm sure that both teams could of had a vet come in a win more than 1-2 games. Again when Andrew Luck came into the league, the Colts could of stayed with Peyton who was obviously way better than a rookie but they didn't because they wanted to let there future grow, which makes sense. A lot of you Wolves fans are thirsting for a win. Ive been watching since the start though. Since Pooh Richardson, Doug West, Randy Brewer. I think I see more big picture than others that have only been watching 5-10 years. Plus I don't love Ricky, like some others do, which is clouding judgement. Im just of the approach that the GM's and owners took with Aikman, Manning, and Luck. Your of a different approach and that fine. Its more about personal preference than right or wrong I guess. Sometimes its good to sit a year as well as a franchise QB.

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 12:21 PM
I know your thoughts on what we should do, we have seen it plenty in the Wolves forum. I am trying to get at why you think that. I think you overrate him offensively if you think his scoring is going to be close enough to those guys as rookies making him better offensively (he isn't as good of a playmaker as Rubio so he won't have the same advantage there). His college averages were like 16 a game on .54 TS% last year in college so you essentially are predicting he breaks out in that area rookie year? I think that might be part of where the gap is with him then.

We get that you don't care about winning next year and want to play youth but you have been rooting for Lebron and not watching all the Wolves games since we have been bad (you said yourself). Those that have would like this team to grow and take the next step forward as a unit and Rubio is the best option to make that happen as of right now (but likely not for the future, we agree). The team can still grow plenty without Dunn starting, in fact others likely benefit. Dunn will get plenty of time still and can develop his game learning from Rubio until the time comes to trade him or something.

Both Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning were not great as rookies. I'm sure that both teams could of had a vet come in a win more than 1-2 games. Again when Andrew Luck came into the league, the Colts could of stayed with Peyton who was obviously way better than a rookie but they didn't because they wanted to let there future grow, which makes sense. A lot of you Wolves fans are thirsting for a win. Ive been watching since the start though. Since Pooh Richardson, Doug West, Randy Brewer. I think I see more big picture than others that have only been watching 5-10 years. Plus I don't love Ricky, like some others do, which is clouding judgement. Im just of the approach that the GM's and owners took with Aikman, Manning, and Luck. Your of a different approach and that fine. Its more about personal preference than right or wrong I guess. Sometimes its good to sit a year as well as a franchise QB.

Again I know your thoughts and don't care much without reasoning. This is not the nfl, even without starting Dunn can get tons of playing time to learn. We are not overly attached to Rubio we just understand his value currently compared to a rookie. We all hope Dunn will be better long term just know it is unlikely to start. You are the one focused in on this topic and repeating it over and over and over even dragging it into the main forum, not us.

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 01:30 PM
[QUOTE]Again I know your thoughts and don't care much without reasoning.
Gave plenty of reasons

This is not the nfl,
Good observation...that factoid means nothing though.

Even without starting Dunn can get tons of playing time to learn.
Yeah I said that

We are not overly attached to Rubio we just understand his value currently compared to a rookie.
"beloved player" - thats a quote so from someone in there so don't speak for everyone. The crying would say otherwise.

We all hope Dunn will be better long term just know it is unlikely to start.
Cool

You are the one focused in on this topic and repeating it over and over and over even dragging it into the main forum, not us.
Yet you are the first one to comment on this thread, and you've gone hard in here and engaged me when I never said a word to you.:rolleyes:

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 02:27 PM
Gave plenty of reasons

Good observation...that factoid means nothing though.

Yeah I said that

You don't respond to what we bring up though so you really aren't defending the stance. You instead bring up QB's only to laugh it off when I point out it is obviously different. That is part of the problem, don't go off on tangents instead of responding to what we say, you claim we are biased but you refuse to back up your opinion against the points mentioned by us, just spew nonsense about Manning etc. as if it is the same scenario.


"beloved player" - thats a quote so from someone in there so don't speak for everyone. The crying would say otherwise.

Cool

Ok let me put it this way, most of the people you are responding to are not in Love with Rubio. You keep trying to claim things like this even in the forum instead of actually discussing the topic in depth.


Yet you are the first one to comment on this thread, and you've gone hard in here and engaged me when I never said a word to you.:rolleyes:

Only to you though, because you are the one I have an issue with and am continuing the convo from Wolves forum. I don't care that MTM thinks Dunn will be better than Rubio it is his opinion which I am open to discussing. When he comes into the Wolves forum saying the same thing over and over only to call people who disagree biased and insult them while running from any actual debate with substance (while whining about us) then brings it to the main forum to continue I will respond to him in the same way. I started this yesterday by mostly just proving one thing you said wrong and you went off on tons of tangents trying to bait me into the argument (after basically admitting I was right on that point).

I am ready to have and hopefully end this discussion with you but again in here you ignore me when I speak of offensive efficiency, the college playing in comparison, Dunn's averages and if they will improve, and the defensive side of the ball to bring up QB's in the NFL and say that some Wolves fans just love Ricky. I am not here defending Ricky as much as I am trying to end this with you so it stops being brought up. Again I actually hope you are right and Dunn is way better because in the end that helps the Wolves, just being realistic about a rookies expectations.

Chronz
08-20-2016, 06:08 PM
How likely is it that Dunn is a better rookie than guys who were more skilled/talented in (Dame+Steph) and had better collegiate showings? How likely is it that he bucks the trend of rookies, especially those drafted as late as Dunn, actually hurting their teams chances severely. What if by starting Dunn or playing him too much with Minny's established prospects ends up hurting their own progression. I mean, are we suppose to completely ignore how much better those guys played when they didn't have to run an offense. IMO, Dunn will never be as good as Rubio is now so he certainly wont be there in year 1 or in a few. Though Ill admit Rubio looked awful these Olympics.

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 06:38 PM
[QUOTE]You don't respond to what we bring up though so you really aren't defending the stance.
Such as? You brought up a bunch of advanced stats. I told you that much of those stats are based on who he is playing with. You brought up PER, and I told you that I myself don't have PER as the barometer for everything and showed you instances in which guys I like who have higher PER and scoring weren't on top of others.


You instead bring up QB's only to laugh it off when I point out it is obviously different.

I see no difference, what is this difference and why is the scenario different especially when a pg is the QB of your team? Seems like you have nothing to say about my points.


That is part of the problem, don't go off on tangents instead of responding to what we say, you claim we are biased but you refuse to back up your opinion against the points mentioned by us, just spew nonsense about Manning etc. as if it is the same scenario.


Again, its not nonsense and its a valid point. Its just nonsense to you because its the same type of scenario.



Ok let me put it this way, most of the people you are responding to are not in Love with Rubio. You keep trying to claim things like this even in the forum instead of actually discussing the topic in depth.


I asked you to tell me one guy who has had the same raw stats for his first five years, and is considered better. You have sidestepped that question so practice what you preach. I will answer any question or statement. You are the one ducking and dodging and not answering anything.



Only to you though, because you are the one I have an issue with and am continuing the convo from Wolves forum. I don't care that MTM thinks Dunn will be better than Rubio it is his opinion which I am open to discussing.

Thats fine, but it takes two to tango and you came at me on this board. I had heard enough from you and the wolves forum so I made a thread out here to hear what others thought that didn't have a Twolves bias. Instead you jumped on here to plaster your biased thoughts all over it. You came in this forum to create the same thing we already created in the wolves forum. Your one opinion was enough. I started the thread and made it favorable to Rubio just to make sure there was no bias in it.


When he comes into the Wolves forum saying the same thing over and over only to call people who disagree biased and insult them

Wrong again! I was attacked simply for saying I like Dunn better. Than a whole bunch of guys got upset at the notion. And attacked me. Ive said its fine if you think otherwise, but your the one that can't let it go. Its not fine with you if I think otherwise and you have said nothing like that. You keep trying to convince me your right and Im not trying to convince you. You are the one with the problem with what I have said, where as I have no problem with your stance or anyone else's.


while running from any actual debate with substance (while whining about us) then brings it to the main forum to continue I will respond to him in the same way. I started this yesterday by mostly just proving one thing you said wrong and you went off on tons of tangents trying to bait me into the argument (after basically admitting I was right on that point).

Oh yeah you proved so much wrong.

I said name a guy with the same exact raw stats ever for 5 straight years of his career that showed so much improvement as you claim ricky has. Crickets from you.

I showed how QB's in the NFL take the rains as rookies
You say different sport. Different sport is not a why, or a reason, its just a lazy statement.


I am ready to have and hopefully end this discussion with you but again in here you ignore me when I speak of offensive efficiency,
OK his Offensive efficiency.

Per 100 here is pts year 1-5.. 16, 18.6, 14.6, 16.6, 16.6. So you tell me what that tells you. Tells me that he is very very similar from Year 1 to year 5

Per 100 Poss here is his steals year 1-5... 3.3, 4.2, 3.6, 2.8, 3.5. So far nothing is supporting your argument that this guy has such a drastic improvement.

To save typing, His rebounding, turnovers, and Personal fouls are of a similar ark.

His Asst show the biggest improvement 1-5 ... 12.3, 12.8, 13.2, 14.2, 14.3
He has had the best fast athletic finishers that he has ever had and it reflects his assist output rise from his rookie year, meanwhile every other stat has stayed the same Per 100 pos.

Again I have no problem with you thinking he is vastly improved. But sorry, I will not think so based on this info

And until you show me anyone who has had 5 straight years of the same raw production like Ricky has with a huge improvement I still won't think so.

But lets look at ORTG 1-5...99, 99, 106, 98, 110
Well his TS% is up all because after 4 seasons of shooting 80% from the ft line, he shot 85% last season.

So there is your huge improvement of a player. He raised his ft% from 80%(where it was there for 4 straight years) to 85% this season. That is his only significant improvement as a player.

If I missed something please point it out, because I really want to answer everything hear.


the college playing in comparison, Dunn's averages and if they will improve, and the defensive side of the ball to bring up QB's in the NFL and say that some Wolves fans just love Ricky. I am not here defending Ricky as much as I am trying to end this with you so it stops being brought up. Again I actually hope you are right and Dunn is way better because in the end that helps the Wolves, just being realistic about a rookies expectations.

From what I have seen of Dunn in college, I think I am being realistic. He's a 5th pick overall and the best PG in the draft. Many top 5 rookie picks are deserving starters over guys that average 11/8 and can't shoot a lick.

IKnowHoops
08-20-2016, 07:00 PM
How likely is it that Dunn is a better rookie than guys who were more skilled/talented in (Dame+Steph) and had better collegiate showings? How likely is it that he bucks the trend of rookies, especially those drafted as late as Dunn, actually hurting their teams chances severely. What if by starting Dunn or playing him too much with Minny's established prospects ends up hurting their own progression. I mean, are we suppose to completely ignore how much better those guys played when they didn't have to run an offense. IMO, Dunn will never be as good as Rubio is now so he certainly wont be there in year 1 or in a few. Though Ill admit Rubio looked awful these Olympics.

Dame Lillard was drafted 6th
Curry was drafted 8th
Eric Bledsoe 18th
Russell Westbrook 4th
Mike Conley 4th
Rajon Rhondo 21st
Deron Williams 3rd
Chris Paul 4th

Dunn was a 5th pick, he's 6'4 and he very quick and athletic. He's got NBA physicality, and athletic ability. I love what I have seen from him in college. I think the wolves hit. Time will tell I guess.

JasonJohnHorn
08-20-2016, 07:37 PM
I wouldn't use 'very good' to describe Rubio. I would use the phrase 'great defender who can't shoot.'

Dunn, at least, can shoot the three... and the two. I haven't gotten to see him play, but I am excited to. He gets a lot of steals, which doesn't mean he is a good defender, but I've heard he's pretty good on D. He's also proven to be a good rebounder. So he essentially does everything Rubio does (statistically at least) AND can shoot.

I expect that as a player who stayed in college for 4 years, he'll be more NBA ready than most rookies, and like Lillard, will likely be ready to start the season playing at a higher level than most sophomores.

Regardless of whether Dunn is the Wolves PG going forward, they are best to trade Rubio ASAP, while some teams may still think he has value.

Keep in mind, statistically, Rubio has seen essentially no growth since his rookie season (slight improvement in his A2T ratio). So Dunn, at 22, will be competing with the same kind of numbers that Rubio was putting up at 21.

I'd say Dunn will perform better.

JasonJohnHorn
08-20-2016, 07:41 PM
This year will be Rubio, rookies don't have major impacts very often and our other players are young so a vet pg helps. I think Dunn is better for the future though once he can learn to run an offense and get some experience.


Top-five picks have significant impacts on a regular basis, even if the last few drafts haven't seen that as much. And 4-year college players are usually more NBA ready than most (see Lillard).

You know who doesn't typically have a huge impact? A vet who has been in the league for five years and has seen minimal improvement and isn't even in a contract year. Don't expect more from Rubio than what he has been doing for the last five years.

JasonJohnHorn
08-20-2016, 07:44 PM
Rubio by a mile, unless he's injured.

Rubio takes a lot of crap about not being able to shoot. but Dunn can't shoot either.

Dunn can't shoot? Did you only watch his first to seasons at Providence? He was over .500 his junior year from inside the arc, and .477 is senior year, and was shooting .372 from beyond the arc as a senior and showed continued improvement each his last two seasons. Rubio is a historically bad shooter.... to suggest Dunn is on parity terms with Rubio in that respect is to completely ignore the numbers he's been posting.

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 08:07 PM
Such as? You brought up a bunch of advanced stats. I told you that much of those stats are based on who he is playing with. You brought up PER, and I told you that I myself don't have PER as the barometer for everything and showed you instances in which guys I like who have higher PER and scoring weren't on top of others.

I have brought up offensive efficiency, running an offense in general (rookies compared to vets), their college scoring because you harped on it, defense, rebounding and gone into multiple comparisons, fit on this wolves team and how Lavine played great off Rubio etc. but you just don't discuss those issues and bring up random stuff like a completely different sport. I brought up those stats specifically because you said Rubio had not gotten better statistically from his rookie year and I responded showing he had to prove that wrong. You just got pissy after that and came here.



I see no difference, what is this difference and why is the scenario different especially when a pg is the QB of your team? Seems like you have nothing to say about my points.

Again, its not nonsense and its a valid point. Its just nonsense to you because its the same type of scenario.

I am sorry but even comparing basketball players of the same position can be tough because they all could specialize in different areas (scoring, playmaking, off ball, defense etc). You are changing the sport to one where players don't play both sides of the ball and trying to say it's the same? Do backup PG's basically never get to play like backup QB's? That alone is a major difference that negates the comparison let alone the tons of differences between two sports. I agree that in all sports there are times to play/wait with young players, but what happened to Manning has basically no bearing on Dunn. Please explain why that type of comparison matters here when discussing if Dunn is better than/should start over Rubio?



I asked you to tell me one guy who has had the same raw stats for his first five years, and is considered better. You have sidestepped that question so practice what you preach. I will answer any question or statement. You are the one ducking and dodging and not answering anything.

You have gone on tons of irrelevent tangents, I am not avoiding the discussion of Rubio/Dunn at all. I never made any sort of claim about that though, I just showed you that Rubio had clearly improved statistically from rookie year. I even said in the thread it wasn't major or anything to point to being a star but you were using that to say Rookie Dunn could be better than Rubio now because Rubio hadn't improved. I responded to that by showing he was clearly better statistically last season. I want to discuss Rubio/Dunn not randomly go through stats you ask for which don't seem relevant to that comparison, I simply provided the initial ones to prove you wrong.


Thats fine, but it takes two to tango and you came at me on this board. I had heard enough from you and the wolves forum so I made a thread out here to hear what others thought that didn't have a Twolves bias. Instead you jumped on here to plaster your biased thoughts all over it. You came in this forum to create the same thing we already created in the wolves forum. Your one opinion was enough. I started the thread and made it favorable to Rubio just to make sure there was no bias in it.

Wrong again! I was attacked simply for saying I like Dunn better. Than a whole bunch of guys got upset at the notion. And attacked me. Ive said its fine if you think otherwise, but your the one that can't let it go. Its not fine with you if I think otherwise and you have said nothing like that. You keep trying to convince me your right and Im not trying to convince you. You are the one with the problem with what I have said, where as I have no problem with your stance or anyone else's.



Thats the thing though, we don't have an issue with the stance itself. The problem is you constantly bringing it up, insulting us, ignoring the actual discussion to sidetrack, then call us biased for not agreeing with you. I am trying to get this topic over with and finished, you came here and made it bigger instead.Instead of discussing further in the wolves forum you just said "there is too much bias in here right now" and that you would make a thread in the main instead. You are the one that literally created this thread mid discussion to continue/further it instead of just actually staying on topic.



Oh yeah you proved so much wrong.

I said name a guy with the same exact raw stats ever for 5 straight years of his career that showed so much improvement as you claim ricky has. Crickets from you.

I showed how QB's in the NFL take the rains as rookies
You say different sport. Different sport is not a why, or a reason, its just a lazy statement.


OK his Offensive efficiency.

Per 100 here is pts year 1-5.. 16, 18.6, 14.6, 16.6, 16.6. So you tell me what that tells you. Tells me that he is very very similar from Year 1 to year 5

Per 100 Poss here is his steals year 1-5... 3.3, 4.2, 3.6, 2.8, 3.5. So far nothing is supporting your argument that this guy has such a drastic improvement.

To save typing, His rebounding, turnovers, and Personal fouls are of a similar ark.

His Asst show the biggest improvement 1-5 ... 12.3, 12.8, 13.2, 14.2, 14.3
He has had the best fast athletic finishers that he has ever had and it reflects his assist output rise from his rookie year, meanwhile every other stat has stayed the same Per 100 pos.

Again I have no problem with you thinking he is vastly improved. But sorry, I will not think so based on this info

And until you show me anyone who has had 5 straight years of the same raw production like Ricky has with a huge improvement I still won't think so.

But lets look at ORTG 1-5...99, 99, 106, 98, 110
Well his TS% is up all because after 4 seasons of shooting 80% from the ft line, he shot 85% last season.

So there is your huge improvement of a player. He raised his ft% from 80%(where it was there for 4 straight years) to 85% this season. That is his only significant improvement as a player.

If I missed something please point it out, because I really want to answer everything hear.

First quote where I said Rubio had a drastic improvement, otherwise this is the irrelevant stuff I mentioned. I said Rubio has gotten better at running an offense efficiently and defensively since being a rookie. I then responded to you saying his numbers were identical by pointing out the huge jump in his offensive efficiency and how his PER, WS/48, BPM and RPM showed an improved player across the board. At some point I even said it wasn't drastic or anything that makes him out to be a star, but he has improved as a player. That is all I have been saying and why I used the numbers in the first place.

FYI even if Rubio was at 80% on his ft this year his TS% would still be .519 so your analysis there is easily off. going from 99 to 110 in ORTG is pretty drastic with similar output (aka not lessening the load). He was very inefficient as a rookie and has improved to solid by upping his assists/lowering turns for a better ratio and also his ft rate was great last year, he finally stopped avoiding contact. Defensively he has improved as well. Nothing major outside of just growing up and learning the NBA but he has definitely improved some so comparing Dunn to rookie Rubio like you did in that initial post doesn't make sense.




From what I have seen of Dunn in college, I think I am being realistic. He's a 5th pick overall and the best PG in the draft. Many top 5 rookie picks are deserving starters over guys that average 11/8 and can't shoot a lick.

Why though, again I don't care what you think unless you back it up.

How can he run an offense as a rookie? Will his numbers from college increase despite being a rookie instead of a senior vs. smaller/younger guys? Even with becoming more of a 3/4th option behind Towns/Wiggins/Lavine? Wouldn't it make more sense to stick with the same starting lineup who finished the year like 15-18 and were a net plus together (especially since it allows Dunn to have higher usage off the bench in 6th man combo guard role)? Best case scenario if he is like Curry/Lilliard do you actually see him close to their scoring based on the college numbers of each? etc. are types of things I have tried to get into with little response just like throughout much of the wolves forum. If you respond to anything here just going into these points in depth would help the discussion much more than the other BS.

mngopher35
08-20-2016, 08:24 PM
Top-five picks have significant impacts on a regular basis, even if the last few drafts haven't seen that as much. And 4-year college players are usually more NBA ready than most (see Lillard).

You know who doesn't typically have a huge impact? A vet who has been in the league for five years and has seen minimal improvement and isn't even in a contract year. Don't expect more from Rubio than what he has been doing for the last five years.

I am expecting that vet to simply play as well as he did last year so that is just fine. I have already posted a comparison to the numbers of Curry/Lilliard as rookies to Rubio this past year and he comes out ahead it seems. He was 5th among all pgs in RPM outside of the bball reference stats as well. There is a reason Lavine finally took off once he was inserted as an SG next to Rubio in the starting lineup. I have a hard time believing a rookie coming in is going to have the same level of bball IQ to run this team like Rubio did and set up our trio of scorers.

I get that sometimes rookies can come in and be better than what Rubio is now but it is pretty rare still, not every year or anything. Especially considering we have a young team needing a good floor general. Best case scenario of Curry/Dame puts Dunn around that but given he wasn't as polished as those guys offensively coming in I think even saying he reaches that is amstretch let alone any better. I like him starting eventually, maybe even makes it a question later in the year if we are lucky. This year alone though Rubio is likely going to be better unless Dunn is better than Curry/Dame as rookies which I don't see.

Sadds The Gr8
08-20-2016, 09:12 PM
Rubio easily...

IKnowHoops
08-21-2016, 12:55 AM
I have brought up offensive efficiency, running an offense in general (rookies compared to vets), their college scoring because you harped on it, defense, rebounding and gone into multiple comparisons, fit on this wolves team and how Lavine played great off Rubio etc. but you just don't discuss those issues and bring up random stuff like a completely different sport. I brought up those stats specifically because you said Rubio had not gotten better statistically from his rookie year and I responded showing he had to prove that wrong. You just got pissy after that and came here.



I am sorry but even comparing basketball players of the same position can be tough because they all could specialize in different areas (scoring, playmaking, off ball, defense etc). You are changing the sport to one where players don't play both sides of the ball and trying to say it's the same? Do backup PG's basically never get to play like backup QB's? That alone is a major difference that negates the comparison let alone the tons of differences between two sports. I agree that in all sports there are times to play/wait with young players, but what happened to Manning has basically no bearing on Dunn. Please explain why that type of comparison matters here when discussing if Dunn is better than/should start over Rubio?




You have gone on tons of irrelevent tangents, I am not avoiding the discussion of Rubio/Dunn at all. I never made any sort of claim about that though, I just showed you that Rubio had clearly improved statistically from rookie year. I even said in the thread it wasn't major or anything to point to being a star but you were using that to say Rookie Dunn could be better than Rubio now because Rubio hadn't improved. I responded to that by showing he was clearly better statistically last season. I want to discuss Rubio/Dunn not randomly go through stats you ask for which don't seem relevant to that comparison, I simply provided the initial ones to prove you wrong.




Thats the thing though, we don't have an issue with the stance itself. The problem is you constantly bringing it up, insulting us, ignoring the actual discussion to sidetrack, then call us biased for not agreeing with you. I am trying to get this topic over with and finished, you came here and made it bigger instead.Instead of discussing further in the wolves forum you just said "there is too much bias in here right now" and that you would make a thread in the main instead. You are the one that literally created this thread mid discussion to continue/further it instead of just actually staying on topic.



First quote where I said Rubio had a drastic improvement, otherwise this is the irrelevant stuff I mentioned. I said Rubio has gotten better at running an offense efficiently and defensively since being a rookie. I then responded to you saying his numbers were identical by pointing out the huge jump in his offensive efficiency and how his PER, WS/48, BPM and RPM showed an improved player across the board. At some point I even said it wasn't drastic or anything that makes him out to be a star, but he has improved as a player. That is all I have been saying and why I used the numbers in the first place.

FYI even if Rubio was at 80% on his ft this year his TS% would still be .519 so your analysis there is easily off. going from 99 to 110 in ORTG is pretty drastic with similar output (aka not lessening the load). He was very inefficient as a rookie and has improved to solid by upping his assists/lowering turns for a better ratio and also his ft rate was great last year, he finally stopped avoiding contact. Defensively he has improved as well. Nothing major outside of just growing up and learning the NBA but he has definitely improved some so comparing Dunn to rookie Rubio like you did in that initial post doesn't make sense.





Why though, again I don't care what you think unless you back it up.

How can he run an offense as a rookie? Will his numbers from college increase despite being a rookie instead of a senior vs. smaller/younger guys? Even with becoming more of a 3/4th option behind Towns/Wiggins/Lavine? Wouldn't it make more sense to stick with the same starting lineup who finished the year like 15-18 and were a net plus together (especially since it allows Dunn to have higher usage off the bench in 6th man combo guard role)? Best case scenario if he is like Curry/Lilliard do you actually see him close to their scoring based on the college numbers of each? etc. are types of things I have tried to get into with little response just like throughout much of the wolves forum. If you respond to anything here just going into these points in depth would help the discussion much more than the other BS.
My original post.


I feel you, but when looking at his numbers, Rookie Rubio is very close to present Rubio. And Rookie rubio is far from one of the better rookie PG of all time. So if 21 year old Rookie Rubio could challenge present Rubio, then I think a 22 year old Rookie who is much stronger and more athletic will have a good chance to do it too.

Rubio's numbers are almost identical from rookie season to now, and havent changed much.

We actually agree then. He is better, but nothing drastic. Rookie Rubio is not as good as present Rubio but he is close.

His increased advanced stats, while not changing his raw stats at all show a combination of him being smarter, understanding his limitations, and refusing to play outside himself, and getting players that can run and finish at the rim which compliments his own style. But his skill set is unchanged, he hasn't gotten better at anything other than free throw shooting. FG%, 3pt%, Steals, Reb are virtually unchanged. His Rookie year was actually his best 3pt shooting year of his career so he has actually gotten worse at that. But I do agree his is a little bit better because of what I mentioned.

Chronz
08-21-2016, 11:03 AM
Dame Lillard was drafted 6th
Curry was drafted 8th
Eric Bledsoe 18th
Russell Westbrook 4th
Mike Conley 4th
Rajon Rhondo 21st
Deron Williams 3rd
Chris Paul 4th

Dunn was a 5th pick, he's 6'4 and he very quick and athletic. He's got NBA physicality, and athletic ability. I love what I have seen from him in college. I think the wolves hit. Time will tell I guess.

You didn't answer the question, you just gave selective analysis that ignores historical data. Like have you seen the expected success rates per draft position? How likely is it that hes as good as guys who we better than him in College and were the rare breed of athletes that became superstars?

JasonJohnHorn
08-21-2016, 11:43 AM
I am expecting that vet to simply play as well as he did last year so that is just fine. I have already posted a comparison to the numbers of Curry/Lilliard as rookies to Rubio this past year and he comes out ahead it seems. He was 5th among all pgs in RPM outside of the bball reference stats as well. There is a reason Lavine finally took off once he was inserted as an SG next to Rubio in the starting lineup. I have a hard time believing a rookie coming in is going to have the same level of bball IQ to run this team like Rubio did and set up our trio of scorers.

I get that sometimes rookies can come in and be better than what Rubio is now but it is pretty rare still, not every year or anything. Especially considering we have a young team needing a good floor general. Best case scenario of Curry/Dame puts Dunn around that but given he wasn't as polished as those guys offensively coming in I think even saying he reaches that is amstretch let alone any better. I like him starting eventually, maybe even makes it a question later in the year if we are lucky. This year alone though Rubio is likely going to be better unless Dunn is better than Curry/Dame as rookies which I don't see.

Rubio will likely be better at setting up teammates. I agree to that 100%. But defenders don't have to pay attention to Rubio, and that hurts the other guys to, because it is easier to collapse on them and double up.

As far as Rubio being a better last year than Steph or Lillard as rookies... I think you have to do some serious statistical manipulation to get that. Sure. He's a better rebounder, and a better defender than either were as rookies, but point guards aren't expected to be great rebounders, and I think Minny has their rebounding covered with the other positions already. As for defence, from what I hear, Dunn is a strong defender (again, I haven't seen him play, but guys I trust are high on him defensively).

Rubio has about a 3-1 A2T ratio, compared to Lillard and Steph who were both around 2-1 as rookies, but as a rookie, Steph had a higher 3pt percentage than Rubio had INSIDE the arc last season. Being able to spread the floor and have a more efficient shooting option is HUGE. Having two rookies who can dish out 6 assists and score 20 while handing out 3 assists can certainly make a team better than a guy who scores 10 points hands out 8 or 9 assists, and commits as many turnovers.

I don't think Dunn will be significantly better than Rubio this season, but I expect that he will play well enough to warrant splitting the minutes close to evenly. He played 4 years in college, so his body is more developed than a lot of younger guys coming in who are still teens, and he's been coached longer, so I do expect his basketball IQ to by much higher than most rookies, even if his potential isn't as high. He's the kind of pick that can come in and make a difference immediately. Will he get tripped up on D by some vets? Sure. Will he made some bad passes? Yeah. Will he need time to be able to set up his teammates as well as Rubio. Yes. But he's also going to command more respect from defenders than Rubio, and will in turn spread the defense out. And given that the Wolves will not be contending this year, it is best to bring up the young point guard that going to be entering his prime with the core than letting a guy who hasn't grown as a player in 5 seasons all the minutes.

I want to see Minny do well. I feel bad for the fans there. They've gotten a bum deal. The front office dropped the ball when it came to building around Garnett, then they did it again with Love. The fans deserve a competitive team there, and I hope Dunn can help get the there. What I am sure of is that Rubio can't. I know he's your starting PG, but I don't see any way that he's going to be a starter on a title contending team with the way he shoots. If he was a C or even a PF who couldn't shoot but could do all the other things he does, ok. But the guy who is running your offense needs to be able to shoot.


Our difference of opinion aside, here's to hoping that Minny sees a big turn around and the Wiggins lives up to his potential, that LaVine turns into an AS, and that KAT takes his game to the next level, and who ever is helming the team, let him do his best to facilitate all the talent he has around him.

IKnowHoops
08-21-2016, 12:16 PM
Rubio will likely be better at setting up teammates. I agree to that 100%. But defenders don't have to pay attention to Rubio, and that hurts the other guys to, because it is easier to collapse on them and double up.

As far as Rubio being a better last year than Steph or Lillard as rookies... I think you have to do some serious statistical manipulation to get that. Sure. He's a better rebounder, and a better defender than either were as rookies, but point guards aren't expected to be great rebounders, and I think Minny has their rebounding covered with the other positions already. As for defence, from what I hear, Dunn is a strong defender (again, I haven't seen him play, but guys I trust are high on him defensively).

Rubio has about a 3-1 A2T ratio, compared to Lillard and Steph who were both around 2-1 as rookies, but as a rookie, Steph had a higher 3pt percentage than Rubio had INSIDE the arc last season. Being able to spread the floor and have a more efficient shooting option is HUGE. Having two rookies who can dish out 6 assists and score 20 while handing out 3 assists can certainly make a team better than a guy who scores 10 points hands out 8 or 9 assists, and commits as many turnovers.

I don't think Dunn will be significantly better than Rubio this season, but I expect that he will play well enough to warrant splitting the minutes close to evenly. He played 4 years in college, so his body is more developed than a lot of younger guys coming in who are still teens, and he's been coached longer, so I do expect his basketball IQ to by much higher than most rookies, even if his potential isn't as high. He's the kind of pick that can come in and make a difference immediately. Will he get tripped up on D by some vets? Sure. Will he made some bad passes? Yeah. Will he need time to be able to set up his teammates as well as Rubio. Yes. But he's also going to command more respect from defenders than Rubio, and will in turn spread the defense out. And given that the Wolves will not be contending this year, it is best to bring up the young point guard that going to be entering his prime with the core than letting a guy who hasn't grown as a player in 5 seasons all the minutes.

I want to see Minny do well. I feel bad for the fans there. They've gotten a bum deal. The front office dropped the ball when it came to building around Garnett, then they did it again with Love. The fans deserve a competitive team there, and I hope Dunn can help get the there. What I am sure of is that Rubio can't. I know he's your starting PG, but I don't see any way that he's going to be a starter on a title contending team with the way he shoots. If he was a C or even a PF who couldn't shoot but could do all the other things he does, ok. But the guy who is running your offense needs to be able to shoot.


Our difference of opinion aside, here's to hoping that Minny sees a big turn around and the Wiggins lives up to his potential, that LaVine turns into an AS, and that KAT takes his game to the next level, and who ever is helming the team, let him do his best to facilitate all the talent he has around him.

Just this.

beasted86
08-21-2016, 12:49 PM
So the Wolves have a very good PG already in Ricky Rubio.

I suddenly started hearing the high pitched hook of Styles P's "I get high" song playing in my head.

mngopher35
08-21-2016, 01:07 PM
My original post.



We actually agree then. He is better, but nothing drastic. Rookie Rubio is not as good as present Rubio but he is close.

Not really but we probably aren't that far off, hard to tell without really seeing your thoughts. Rubio went from a below average nba player to a top 10-15 pg in the NBA. He isn't amazing but is a solid starter now and that is something a rookie pg would have a really hard time becoming right away. You using rookie Rubio to say Dunn could be better because he hasn't improved much is just off because the efficiency/defensive change just from learning the game mostly is pretty significant helping him jump to a solid starting pg from what he was.

I like Dunn and am of the opinion that he will take over sometime in the near future and these discussions will happen during this season even hopefully. Your approach in the wolves forum was the biggest issue on the topic I feel (until your recent post I saw). Rubio is better for this team to start next season but it is somewhat in the air once we see how Dunn adjusts to the NBA and if he can learn quickly.


His increased advanced stats, while not changing his raw stats at all show a combination of him being smarter, understanding his limitations, and refusing to play outside himself, and getting players that can run and finish at the rim which compliments his own style. But his skill set is unchanged, he hasn't gotten better at anything other than free throw shooting. FG%, 3pt%, Steals, Reb are virtually unchanged. His Rookie year was actually his best 3pt shooting year of his career so he has actually gotten worse at that. But I do agree his is a little bit better because of what I mentioned.

We agree a lot on this part though of his scoring skill etc not improving. The improvements he has made I think you under sell though, as I said he jumped from a below average nba player to solid starter. Very few rookies come in and have the same impact as Rubio and predicting Dunn at Curry/Lilliard level seems too much for me.

IKnowHoops
08-21-2016, 01:12 PM
[QUOTE]You didn't answer the question,

"Quite right, that was faster than the others" - Can you name what movie this line is from?


you just gave selective analysis that ignores historical data. Like have you seen the expected success rates per draft position? How likely is it that hes as good as guys who we better than him in College

I admit his stats aren't as good as Lillard or Curry. Those two straight killed in college.


and were the rare breed of athletes that became superstars?

But Dunn is a rare breed of athlete himself. He is very quick and agile. Athletically I would put him above Curry easily and on the same page as Lillard, from the eye test. If you watch he has ridiculous length for a PG with his long arms and 6'4 height, and he's super explosive, a reason he was drafted ahead of guys like Buddy Heild who has superior college stats.

This is film just to compare the athletic ability, not to prove anything else.

Dunn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pqss7oCKyI

Lillard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHBDW6tNcvo

There have been plenty of examples of guys who were drafted based on the way there perceived skill set would translate, who had less stats than guy they were drafted ahead of.

IKnowHoops
08-21-2016, 01:17 PM
I suddenly started hearing the high pitched hook of Styles P's "I get high" song playing in my head.

:laugh2:

Was just trying to make a non biased thread.

mngopher35
08-21-2016, 01:28 PM
Rubio will likely be better at setting up teammates. I agree to that 100%. But defenders don't have to pay attention to Rubio, and that hurts the other guys to, because it is easier to collapse on them and double up.

As far as Rubio being a better last year than Steph or Lillard as rookies... I think you have to do some serious statistical manipulation to get that. Sure. He's a better rebounder, and a better defender than either were as rookies, but point guards aren't expected to be great rebounders, and I think Minny has their rebounding covered with the other positions already. As for defence, from what I hear, Dunn is a strong defender (again, I haven't seen him play, but guys I trust are high on him defensively).

Rubio has about a 3-1 A2T ratio, compared to Lillard and Steph who were both around 2-1 as rookies, but as a rookie, Steph had a higher 3pt percentage than Rubio had INSIDE the arc last season. Being able to spread the floor and have a more efficient shooting option is HUGE. Having two rookies who can dish out 6 assists and score 20 while handing out 3 assists can certainly make a team better than a guy who scores 10 points hands out 8 or 9 assists, and commits as many turnovers.

I don't have to manipulate anything, he had higher PER, WS/48, BPM and is 5th of all PG's this year in RPM. His +/- is great too but part of that is our backups being poor. I get that Rubio can't shoot but given how much better our players play next to him than not I think you are off claiming it is a hindrance to them in some big way (or that extra spacing the rookies create being huge in that area). Him setting the offense up correctly, getting the ball to the right guy in the right spot etc. all easily cover his lack of range from helping teammates perspective, again that is why Lavine took off next to him. His high creation rate and efficiency offensively are the keys to this and neither do I think Dunn will quite be able to match as a rookie. Even with Dunn being a good defender coming in it is hard to think he will be better than Rubio on that end right away and offensively his game isn't as polished nor is he as good of a shooter as Curry/Lilliard anyway so there isn't some big advantage there for him like they had anyways.


I don't think Dunn will be significantly better than Rubio this season, but I expect that he will play well enough to warrant splitting the minutes close to evenly. He played 4 years in college, so his body is more developed than a lot of younger guys coming in who are still teens, and he's been coached longer, so I do expect his basketball IQ to by much higher than most rookies, even if his potential isn't as high. He's the kind of pick that can come in and make a difference immediately. Will he get tripped up on D by some vets? Sure. Will he made some bad passes? Yeah. Will he need time to be able to set up his teammates as well as Rubio. Yes. But he's also going to command more respect from defenders than Rubio, and will in turn spread the defense out. And given that the Wolves will not be contending this year, it is best to bring up the young point guard that going to be entering his prime with the core than letting a guy who hasn't grown as a player in 5 seasons all the minutes.

The thing is though we can bring him up as a combo guard 6th man off the bench and he gets to have a higher usage when he plays (aka more his game from college) than trying to run an offense to set up Towns/Wiggins/Lavine. He can easily get 25+ minutes in that role while Rubio gets like 30 as the starting PG. We can have the best of both worlds by pairing the smart vet who has a bigger impact and fits great with our starting unit/young core (that unit had a net positive in major minutes to end last year on 15-18 run) and also getting Dunn plenty of playing time and in multiple roles instead of one mostly relying on him more to set everyone up and take more of a back seat from there. I would much rather let the entire team continue to grow and I think Dunn holds the other starters back to an extent while learning where as Rubio helps them continue to move forward like last year.


I want to see Minny do well. I feel bad for the fans there. They've gotten a bum deal. The front office dropped the ball when it came to building around Garnett, then they did it again with Love. The fans deserve a competitive team there, and I hope Dunn can help get the there. What I am sure of is that Rubio can't. I know he's your starting PG, but I don't see any way that he's going to be a starter on a title contending team with the way he shoots. If he was a C or even a PF who couldn't shoot but could do all the other things he does, ok. But the guy who is running your offense needs to be able to shoot.


Our difference of opinion aside, here's to hoping that Minny sees a big turn around and the Wiggins lives up to his potential, that LaVine turns into an AS, and that KAT takes his game to the next level, and who ever is helming the team, let him do his best to facilitate all the talent he has around him.

I just don't think it is good to assume Dunn will be as good or better than Curry/Lilliard as rookies making his impact close to Rubios next year. Over the past 5 years how many rookie PG's have come in and been that good? I am struggling to think of any outside of Lilliard and he was more polished than Dunn and still probably not as good as Rubio on the whole (playmaking/rebounding/defense/vet IQ easily favor Rubio while he mostly just has the scoring advantage). It just seems like it takes underrating Rubio or overrating a shiny new rookie to think that Dunn will be better next season imo given the history of rookies and comparing them to Dunn.

Edit: Had a little more time and after reading this wanted to explain what I meant about Rubio's 3pt shot not being a big hindrance in comparison and how being a better playmaker/floor general help cover that up (along with his improved efficiency). Over a good chunk of his prime Kidd was scoring about 15 ppg with a 3 pt shot at 33.5%, lower TS% than Rubio, and a 3/1 assist turnover ratio like Ricky has so overall somewhat similar. I think to imply that his lack of shooting would make a huge difference for teammates compared to rookie Curry/Lilliard is way off base because of how good he was overall at playmaking/running an offense (which show up in the advanced stats I mentioned too, Kidd is clearly above Rubio last year as well obviously). Overall though Rubio actually has as good or better assists/turnovers per 100 possessions than even Kidd over some of his prime so my point is his playmaking/knowledge of running an offense is huge in the same way 3 point shooting/scoring is huge for those other two rookies, just a different way to impact. This is part of why in the end Rubio statistically still comes out better than Lilliard/Curry as rookies, it has a lot to do with just understanding how to play and run an offense in the NBA which rookies need to adjust to (aka more of a Kidd type pg than the new age scoring type pg's).

Chronz
08-21-2016, 02:13 PM
[QUOTE=Chronz;31133050],

"Quite right, that was faster than the others" - Can you name what movie this line is from?



I admit his stats aren't as good as Lillard or Curry. Those two straight killed in college.



But Dunn is a rare breed of athlete himself. He is very quick and agile. Athletically I would put him above Curry easily and on the same page as Lillard, from the eye test. If you watch he has ridiculous length for a PG with his long arms and 6'4 height, and he's super explosive, a reason he was drafted ahead of guys like Buddy Heild who has superior college stats.

This is film just to compare the athletic ability, not to prove anything else.

Dunn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pqss7oCKyI

Lillard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHBDW6tNcvo

There have been plenty of examples of guys who were drafted based on the way there perceived skill set would translate, who had less stats than guy they were drafted ahead of.
I might be different here but I qualify an athlete by more than personal specs, like hand eye coordination is very much a part of being an athlete, peripheral awareness etc... These are things you cannot see through selective video, like I take offense when people say Bird wasn't a great athlete. I actually think hes underrated athletically because of his supreme coordination. But in terms of just jumping or whatever, I really dont care to compare. Facts are, he was a worse prospect and is unlikely to replicate their performance which even if he could, would not surpass the influence of a vet like Rubio.

Also, I dont think you know what superior stats look like with regards to collegiate prospects, its not about PER or any barometer we're used to in the NBA. With Collegiate players certain stats become more important than usage based barometers.

Chronz
08-21-2016, 02:16 PM
I suddenly started hearing the high pitched hook of Styles P's "I get high" song playing in my head.

Why do you hate Rubio so?

Hawkeye15
08-22-2016, 09:37 AM
This year? I take the 26 year old who was 5th in RPM, 10th in VORP, is an elite defender/rebounder for the position, over a rookie all day, any day. Especially one who is turnover prone, and could potentially struggle with foul trouble due to playing like a bull in a china shop most the time. Dunn is also 3.5 years younger, he isn't a 19 year old kid, he should have killed the summer league.

Truthfully, I don't care to project Dunn's NBA potential, as a Wolves fan, until they prove it, eff them. Just another lottery pick....

This year, Rubio for sure. After that? Guess we will see...

IKnowHoops
08-23-2016, 06:25 PM
I might be different here but I qualify an athlete by more than personal specs, like hand eye coordination is very much a part of being an athlete, peripheral awareness etc... These are things you cannot see through selective video, like I take offense when people say Bird wasn't a great athlete. I actually think hes underrated athletically because of his supreme coordination. But in terms of just jumping or whatever, I really dont care to compare. Facts are, he was a worse prospect and is unlikely to replicate their performance which even if he could, would not surpass the influence of a vet like Rubio.

Also, I dont think you know what superior stats look like with regards to collegiate prospects, its not about PER or any barometer we're used to in the NBA. With Collegiate players certain stats become more important than usage based barometers.

I 100% disagree with this. (I do agree that hand eye coordination is part of being an athlete) I think you can definitely see the hand eye coordination and peripheral awareness in selective video. Highlights allow you to see what a guy is capable of. You can look at a highlight film of Lebron and Jordan, and know without a doubt they are doing things that 99% of the NBA cannot. I remember a quote by Jimmy Johnson after he drafted Emmitt. "Jerry and I were watching him in practice and he made a cut that I had never seen any other player make, and me and Jerry looked at each other, and I said, "we're back"". Now I will say you really can't tell what kind of consistency you are going to get out of a player by watching a highlight film, but you can definitely see all things athletic, hand eye, coordination, quickness, and awareness by the plays that they are making in the film. All Jimmy had to see was one cut from Emmitt and he knew he had something special. You put on a tape of Barry Sanders and thats all you need to see. You wont see anything like that from all the complete game films of every player ever.

mrblisterdundee
08-23-2016, 08:08 PM
Let's see which one can shoot better.

Bruno
08-24-2016, 03:24 PM
Let's see which one can shoot better.

Dunn made 73 3's in 95 college games, and hes a 69% free throw shooter. Dunn sucks at shooting too. if they just drafted a shooter this would be more interesting. Rubio is a brilliant basketball player with a major hole, but i'm still surprised to see how much people don't seem to like his game. I think its pretty beautiful stuff personally.