View Full Version : 2016 Playoffs: What are the odds?

08-15-2016, 01:11 PM
The Red Sox undoubtedly rue the two games they blew against the Yankees. Otherwise we'd be talking about a perfect 6-0 homestand. They can't worry about missed opportunities, though, because what's staring them in the face requires all of their attention.

They're one of just four teams in the AL with a winning road record (26-25). However, the schedule is so unforgiving that .500 away from home won't cut it down the stretch, not when they trail the Blue Jays and Orioles by two games in the AL East and cling to a 1 1/2-game lead in the wild card over the Tigers, with the Mariners, Astros and even the Yankees lurking within 4 1/2 games.

There's a lot to overcome. Young standouts like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley look worn down and tired. Ageless DH David Ortiz is one sprained heel away from spectating in pink sweaters like 1989 Larry Bird. The bullpen remains such a mess that the recently released Jonathan Papelbon looks appealing.

The Red Sox recently completed an 81-game stretch -- half a season -- at just 42-39. That's not going to get it done for any club with designs on the postseason.

Perhaps the sweep of the D-backs will act as a long-awaited springboard, but the fact of the matter is the Red Sox have played winning baseball for only two stretches -- when they went 18-10 in May, and when they went 12-3 to open July. They're otherwise 34-39.

The next week gives them a chance to catch the Orioles and bury the Tigers. The time for playing win-one, lose-one baseball officially has passed.

If the Red Sox want to reach the playoffs, they're going to have to earn it, starting today.weei.com (http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/john-tomase/2016/08/15/red-sox-road-postseason-starts-now-and-it-wont)

Given that as a background, what do you think the odds are of the Sox surviving the stretch run tot he playoffs?

08-15-2016, 02:01 PM
I think the chance they make the playoffs = a flip of a coin. The team is so Jekyll & Hyde with enough positives that you feel like they could be running away with the division if luck has bounced there way a bit more often, but there have been enough negatives that it's surprising and impressive they even still hold a WC spot.

Roll everything together, and I think they have a decent chance to make the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised by any level of success once they get there. But, I also wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs by ~3-5 games...

08-15-2016, 02:20 PM
I agree with the guy above me. The talent is there. The performance is shaky, however.

08-16-2016, 12:27 AM
I would have said 25% - 50%. But who knows maybe Miggy is really hurting? He had an injury tonight though they speculated it probably won't be that bad. If it is significant, I don't think Detriot has enough. That's one team I'd put the Sox above.

08-16-2016, 11:26 AM
Tigers refused our request to bump up Thursday's game time (night game in Baltimore Wednesday -> flying to Detroit after, then 1:00 game). The odds are stacking against us!

08-16-2016, 02:48 PM
Can't really blame DET for refusing the request. It's pretty odd to play a mid-week day game that's not a getaway day though. I wonder what the heck is going on there.

I think the odds might be a bit worse than 50-50 but I'm enough of a fan to go with the "riding the rails" option. I'm more concerned with the heavy road schedule cooling the offense than the role of any particular player.

That said, has anyone else noticed that the Sox have seemed to rise and fall more in conjunction with HanRam's bat than anyone else? I'm not sure if it's cause or correlation but his hot streaks lined up with the Sox' offensive surge in July (as an example) and they cooled when he got hurt.

08-16-2016, 06:57 PM
Anyone else think it's crazy this team has 4 guys who could be top 10 in MVP consideration (Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, and Papi) and 2 guys who could be top 10 in AL Cy Young consideration (Porcello and Wright) yet they are fighting for the playoffs?

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Station 13
08-17-2016, 12:19 AM
Anyone else think it's crazy this team has 4 guys who could be top 10 in MVP consideration (Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, and Papi) and 2 guys who could be top 10 in AL Cy Young consideration (Porcello and Wright) yet they are fighting for the playoffs?

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Lots has to do with the bullpen. Ziegler and Abad already got 5 losses in a span of 2 week with this team. Farrell need to stop the man crush for Abad. It's contagious.

08-17-2016, 08:16 AM
Anyone else think it's crazy this team has 4 guys who could be top 10 in MVP consideration (Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ, and Papi) and 2 guys who could be top 10 in AL Cy Young consideration (Porcello and Wright) yet they are fighting for the playoffs?

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I get the main point of what you're saying but just a side note: I highly doubt JBJr will be in the top 10 in MVP consideration. he's doing well this season but definitely not MVP consideration worthy.

As said above, it's our bullpen that is killing us. last night is the latest example, they had a 3-0 lead yet these guys can't throw a damn strike, i've said it a million times, when the pressure is on they lose control of the ball

08-22-2016, 04:18 PM
I'd say there's a 75 percent chance we at least make it to the play in game. It feels like the other teams going for the wild card have been too inconsistent or starting to cool off.

And Pedroia might get more MVP votes than JBJ at this point.

08-22-2016, 06:15 PM
We have a pretty good schedule coming up and we should be able to build a lead. I think we are about to unleash our secret weapon, Clay Buchholz, and if most of our team can play to their ability we should be able to get to a position to have an embarrassing loss during the play offs.

I would love to have a World Series between us & the Cubs. That would be epic. We have the pieces we need to make that happen but you know how it goes in RS Nation.

09-13-2016, 11:05 AM
In all honesty, I never guessed that the Sox would be where they are today after their ridiculous travel schedule.

Had the Sox posted, say, a 22-21 record during their travels, it would have seemed like a significant accomplishment, permitting them to keep pace with their foremost AL East competitors (the Blue Jays are 21-19 since the Sox started their great summer barnstorming tour on July 27; the Orioles are 20-22). Instead, the Sox went 25-18, and so after starting this stretch in third place in the AL East, 2 ˝ games out of first, they’re now the team to beat with 20 games left on the schedule.

Since they left Fenway Park after a brutal 4-3 loss to the Tigers on July 26, the Sox lead the AL with 5.3 runs per game while limiting opponents to 3.5 runs per game, second-best in the AL. Their 39-32 road record is the best in the American League.

That foundation suggests a team that can be as good as any in the American League, so long as the setup struggles – which have come under control of late, with the only bullpen loss in the last 16 games having fallen on closer Craig Kimbrel – do not expand into a mushroom cloud, and so long as they can take advantage of a return home.

The Red Sox have arrived back on flat ground, which, after nearly seven weeks of running uphill, should feel like a sprint, despite the caliber of their divisional opposition. They have 20 remaining games, 10 at home (where they’ve been a passable but not dominant 41-30, tied for the sixth-best home mark in the AL) and on the road. All of their three remaining series outside of Fenway Park are within their division, meaning that the concerns about exhausting travel now have been relegated to the rearview mirror.Speier

09-13-2016, 08:24 PM
19 games remaining. I know I'm jumping ahead but GM 1 would go to Porcello then Price then I have no idea after that I don't have a ton of confidence. E-Rod he has his days. Drew same thing. Clay no remarks. Going past Game 2 for a pitcher is going to be extremely tough. Just looked at ESPN neither E-Rod or Drew have exp in postseason.

So If I had to take a guess it would be

Game 1: Rick

Game 2: Price

Game 3: Clay

Game 4: Drew

Game 5: E-Rod

09-14-2016, 01:10 PM
Everyone who has post season experience gets it for the first time at some point. Sometimes that experience is good -- like Lester getting the W in the series-clinching victory in 2007. Sometimes the experience is not so good -- ask Price. If you can have any confidence in Price despite his track record in October then I think we can have just as much in the other pitchers and their relative inexperience.

For now, I'll put any post-season hopes on the shoulders of the staff that's had one of the best runs in MLB. The team ERA in the second half (3.57) trails only the Cubs. That the ERA would be better had the BP not staggered through late July and August but the reinforcements have provided a nice turn of late.

Given the nature of playoff scheduling, it's unlikely that we see a fifth starter. Making the call on who stays in the rotation and who goes to the BP will be very interesting. As Speier has pointed out, the Indians are killing LHP (.667 WPct or something like that). If that's their opponent then one of the LHP probably goes to the BP. What happens if Pomeranz' start last night was a sign of fatigue? He could be the odd man out despite a very good run up to this point; his extensive BP experience could be a bonus.

Another factor is whether the Sox open at home or on the road. Personally, I might move Porcello in the rotation to assure that he gets a start at Fenway given his great home record.