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View Full Version : Why Miami will actually be better next season



daleja424
07-16-2016, 02:08 PM
Dwyane Wade is gone. He was the heart and soul of HEAT basketball for 13 seasons. We fell in love his rookie year with his raw athleticism and knack for making big plays (capped off by a playoff buzzer beater against the Hornets). Dwyane has meant everything to the sports landscape of our city, and his legacy as a HEAT legend will never waiver.

And yet, having said all of that, Dwyane Wade's career is on the decline. He took a lesser role to win Championships with Lebron, and that helped hide his decline for a time, but it was none-the-less there. In the two seasons since Lebron left Dwyane has been been everything we could possibly hope for out of a mid-30's player, and yet he has not been enough. No enough to contend. Not really.

If you are still with me at this point, buckle up. It's about to get technical in here. This morning I set out to see how different the HEAT will be without Dwyane as the headliner. Here is what I found:


1. Miami plays better overall without Wade on the court. Last season Miami was 5.0 points per 100 possessions (about the length of a game) BETTER when Wade was on the BENCH.

2. Wade is no where near the defensive player he once was. Sure, he is still capable of impressive blocks here and there when he is locked in, but the numbers suggest that he is a liability defensively. Last season, for example, the HEAT were 6.1 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Wade on the BENCH.

3. He is in the middle of a steep offensive decline. Wade's Offensive Rating the past two seasons have been 102 and 103, his lowest since his rookie year. His shooting percentage last season was 45.6%, the lowest mark of his career. And the advanced shooting metrics show the same decline, with his True Shooting % also dipping to a career low. Finally, his PER (Player Efficiency Rating) last season was the lowest it has been since his rookie year.

4. The HEAT play better team basketball without Wade. Shouldn't need statistics to back this one up, but just for fun: HEAT assist rate goes up without him and the turnover percentage goes down without him.

5. Wade and Goran do not mesh well. When Wade is on the floor with Dragic the HEAT are a net 1.3 points better than opponents (The lowest of all two-man combos involving Goran). When Goran plays with anyone else not named Wade? +2.1, +3.8, +4.1, +4.5, +5.8, +6.1, +6.6, +6.9, +9.5. Another interesting note, his highest combos are with Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow.

6. Statistically, Whiteside plays better with Richardson, Dragic, Winslow, and Udrih than he did with Wade


In summary, the HEAT are in the middle of a rebuild AND poised to be better this season without Wade than they were with him in 2015-2016. We can expect Goran's usage percentage to increase and the minutes for Justise, Josh, and Tyler to skyrocket... but both of those things are good for the HEAT (at least according to advanced statistics from last year). The HEAT were a better team with Wade on the bench last season, and should (theoretically) be a better team with him in Chicago in 2016-2017.


Source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2016/on-off/

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king james
07-16-2016, 05:42 PM
Good read. I really am on the Richardson bandwagon right now. I seriously think he will avg. 18-5-6 (pts, ast, reb) next season. It might be more in the pts area. Winslow will probably be at 12-15pts 3ast and 7-8rebs. I just believe that they are going to do some serious work next year.

naps
07-16-2016, 06:12 PM
If Josh Richardson averages something like 18/5/5, he will become a all-star because his defense is already steller. I am not sure I expect that kind of a jump on his second year but man if that happens :drool:

daleja424
07-16-2016, 09:03 PM
Some Richardson splits from last year:

Pre- All Star Game: 5.95 Points per 36-mins, 11.5 minutes, ORtg of 76, 36% True Shooting Percentage

Post- All Star Game: 12.6 Points per 36 minutes, ORtg of 122, 62.2% True Shooting Percentage

So he definitely got much better as he got accustomed to playing NBA level basketball. But a jump to 18/5/5 is unreasonable (especially because he might even come off the bench). I think a reasonable line for Richardson will be focus on efficiency. 13 ppg, 3 apg, 40%+ on 3 pointers, in about 30 minutes per game.

The most telling splits for J-Rich is actually his home away splits. At home he had an offensive rating of 125 on 65.2% TS% (Including 55% from 3).... On the road he had an offensive rating of 100 and a 49.8% TS% (inclusing 37% from 3). Knock down shooter at home... pedestrian on the road. May need to work on some better pre game warmups to get used to different gyms on a night by night basis.

Final note, his mark of 122 ORtg in the second half of the year spread over the entire season would have ranked him 5th in the NBA last year in Offensive Rating.

All-In
07-16-2016, 09:52 PM
Dwyane Wade is gone. He was the heart and soul of HEAT basketball for 13 seasons. We fell in love his rookie year with his raw athleticism and knack for making big plays (capped off by a playoff buzzer beater against the Hornets). Dwyane has meant everything to the sports landscape of our city, and his legacy as a HEAT legend will never waiver.

And yet, having said all of that, Dwyane Wade's career is on the decline. He took a lesser role to win Championships with Lebron, and that helped hide his decline for a time, but it was none-the-less there. In the two seasons since Lebron left Dwyane has been been everything we could possibly hope for out of a mid-30's player, and yet he has not been enough. No enough to contend. Not really.

If you are still with me at this point, buckle up. It's about to get technical in here. This morning I set out to see how different the HEAT will be without Dwyane as the headliner. Here is what I found:


1. Miami plays better overall without Wade on the court. Last season Miami was 5.0 points per 100 possessions (about the length of a game) BETTER when Wade was on the BENCH.

2. Wade is no where near the defensive player he once was. Sure, he is still capable of impressive blocks here and there when he is locked in, but the numbers suggest that he is a liability defensively. Last season, for example, the HEAT were 6.1 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Wade on the BENCH.

3. He is in the middle of a steep offensive decline. Wade's Offensive Rating the past two seasons have been 102 and 103, his lowest since his rookie year. His shooting percentage last season was 45.6%, the lowest mark of his career. And the advanced shooting metrics show the same decline, with his True Shooting % also dipping to a career low. Finally, his PER (Player Efficiency Rating) last season was the lowest it has been since his rookie year.

4. The HEAT play better team basketball without Wade. Shouldn't need statistics to back this one up, but just for fun: HEAT assist rate goes up without him and the turnover percentage goes down without him.

5. Wade and Goran do not mesh well. When Wade is on the floor with Dragic the HEAT are a net 1.3 points better than opponents (The lowest of all two-man combos involving Goran). When Goran plays with anyone else not named Wade? +2.1, +3.8, +4.1, +4.5, +5.8, +6.1, +6.6, +6.9, +9.5. Another interesting note, his highest combos are with Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow.

6. Statistically, Whiteside plays better with Richardson, Dragic, Winslow, and Udrih than he did with Wade


In summary, the HEAT are in the middle of a rebuild AND poised to be better this season without Wade than they were with him in 2015-2016. We can expect Goran's usage percentage to increase and the minutes for Justise, Josh, and Tyler to skyrocket... but both of those things are good for the HEAT (at least according to advanced statistics from last year). The HEAT were a better team with Wade on the bench last season, and should (theoretically) be a better team with him in Chicago in 2016-2017.


Source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2016/on-off/

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I understand where you're coming from but Im worried about Deng's departure more so than Wade's departure.....Deng was like our connective tissue last year, he made our small ball unit run better because of his defense, length, rebounding and ball-handling skills.....Our "pick-and-roll" coverage's were more diverse too because we could switch more often...our perimeter defenders last year did a good job of keeping their man in front of them and then funneling them into help because of the versatility Deng afforded us

Wade wasn't the reason why we were good last year....Our depth and defense were....and I'm afraid that we lost a little of both this off-season

Im not going to go as so far to say we will be better.....but....I do think we will surprise a lot of people with our tempo, athleticism, and shooting....Having SG's who can shoot 3's (JRich, Ellington, TJ) I think will do wonders for our spacing.....Getting guys like James Johnson and Derrick Williams to play the 4 will be interesting because even though they cant shoot 3's, they can run out into space first, beating guys in transition....And I hope Okaro White makes the team too, I think he can be a make shift Deng in tight spots

I think this team has to shoot for a pace over 100, get our athletes out in space first with Dragic pushing tempo and our shooters fading to the 3pt line...along with a good "no-middle" defensive strategy.....we will definitely be a surprise team

dudeonthemoon
07-16-2016, 09:52 PM
Great article, never thought I would see the a day where DWade would be elsewhere. While all this may be true and it will probably allow us to play in the more team oriented ball movement style that the league is trending too. I think where we will really miss Wade is in the playoff's when you really need a basket or big play. I think we saw he can still do that. Unfortunately, we couldn't assemble a championship roster and those performances were wasted. It saddens me to see that Wade will probably not be part of very meaningful games for the rest of his career. At any rate should be a fun season, will be interesting to see these young guys play. Hasn't happened with us in a while.

king james
07-17-2016, 08:46 PM
I hear all your numbers and everything, but for whatever reason I just believe that he's going to get 18-5-5 this year. Imo he's our starting sg and with more time on the court and the team looking for him to score I just think he will step up.

naps
07-17-2016, 08:57 PM
I dont think he is skilled enough to create his scoring off the dribble yet. Spotting up is not nearly enough to avg 18 a game. We shall see what he brings in after this off-season though.

Sparky
07-17-2016, 09:14 PM
Can't really measure Wade's loss through statistics. Especially in the playoffs (as mentioned above.)

And also as mentioned, Deng loss is significant.

JRich/TJ/Winslow have been pleasant surprises for young guys delivering good play at great value contracts-wise, but now they're gonna be going against first line guys, and going to be counted on to provide most of the scoring on a nightly basis.

We'll see how they do, but I'd be surprised if we're better.

Don't get me wrong, love the young guys, and expect them to improve, but basically......

>We replaced Wade with Ellington/McGruder
and
>We replaced Deng/Joe with Babbitt/DWilliams/JJohnson

How could that make us better?

DQL
07-18-2016, 06:24 AM
Great post Dale! No doubt Wade is a HEAT legend and the franchise owes him so much, but at the same time he was holding the team back. Riley sensed that and he did what he does. As long as the Godfather still sits in that office there will always be a hope.

Can't wait till the season starts!

Sparky
07-18-2016, 09:12 AM
I wouldn't say Wade was "holding the team back".

I think those stats just indicate that Wade was getting out-played by opposing SGs during the regular season.

But clearly, Wade can still flick the switch on in the playoffs.

Who knows for how much longer.......which is why moving on towards a rebuild may prove to be the correct move over the long run.........especially if we come away with a high lotto pick.

But if I had to bet on it, I still think we finish with a worse record this season than last.

naps
07-18-2016, 10:50 AM
Yeah saying we will better next season is absolutely ridiculous. There is no freaking way we are gonna win 47 games and/or get the 3rd seed or better. But we will be better in the sense that this will enable us develop our future much quicker than it would have if we kept the same team we had last year.

AllBall
07-18-2016, 11:06 AM
I understand where you're coming from but Im worried about Deng's departure more so than Wade's departure.....Deng was like our connective tissue last year, he made our small ball unit run better because of his defense, length, rebounding and ball-handling skills.....Our "pick-and-roll" coverage's were more diverse too because we could switch more often...our perimeter defenders last year did a good job of keeping their man in front of them and then funneling them into help because of the versatility Deng afforded us

Ding ding ding! This is the issue. Look at the numbers with Bosh/Whiteside. When they moved Deng to the 4 is when everyone else did better. I think it was easier to hide Wade than it was Bosh with the rest of the lineup. Not sure why.

LRizzle
07-18-2016, 11:53 AM
The issue we weren't all that great with Wade was due to the fact that he can't hit 3's. Then you add in Whiteside who packs the paint and Winslow with a limited arsenal and guys like Richardson and Deng can't really create their own shot. Losing Wade hurts but the fact is our future is Whiteside, TJ, Richardson and Winslow. I just hope Winslow shoots so many 3's this offseason his arm almost falls off. With his defense and athleticism he doesn't even need to shoot over 40% just something around 35-38% would suffice. If Bosh stays healthy we'll be a very solid team. Dragic, Bosh and Whiteside are more than enough to get us into the playoffs. Especially if TJ, Winslow and Richardson improve offensively because they're all already great or pretty good on defense.

Of course Bosh could also get blood clots again, Whiteside could regress with attitude issues, Winslow doesn't improve offensively and then we're looking at a 30 win season.

Dade County
07-19-2016, 09:33 PM
When we play against sub level team, i kind of agree that we flow better when Wade wasnt on the court; but when we need a basket or a trip to the foul line, Wade came through a lot.

Bosh will be key for spacing. I also think he shouldn't start, so we can play small all the time (also helps out if Whiteside gets into foul trouble); but ofcourse he will play the last 4min of each game.

beasted86
07-27-2016, 07:20 PM
Despite all the bashing of Chris Bosh by some fans wanting him to retire, I think he will play most the year and play well as the legit go to guy next to Dragic and Whitseside. TJ is also going to be hungry to prove he's worth the contract.

Our only margin for error is injury, IMO. Dragic, TJ, Richardson, Winslow, Bosh, and Whiteside play a minimum of 70 games and I don't see how we don't finish .500 on the year.

Sparky
07-28-2016, 09:43 AM
Despite all the bashing of Chris Bosh by some fans wanting him to retire, I think he will play most the year and play well as the legit go to guy next to Dragic and Whitseside. TJ is also going to be hungry to prove he's worth the contract.

Our only margin for error is injury, IMO. Dragic, TJ, Richardson, Winslow, Bosh, and Whiteside play a minimum of 70 games and I don't see how we don't finish .500 on the year.

Bosh is as good a whale as we could hope for.


How far can we go? Well, almost made ECF with....

Wade/Deng/Joe and the young guys

Switch them out for....

Bosh/Waiters/Babbitt/Ellington/DWilliams/JJohnson and the young guys

Maybe just as far.

LRizzle
07-28-2016, 12:42 PM
Completely hinges on the fact of how well Bosh and Whiteside play alongside one another, they didn't get many games together last year. Dragic can run and dominate the ball instead of always having to please Wade. If Winslow can develop even a mediocre shot and Richardson keeps it up and Waiters or Ellington have a good year shooting the rock, we could potentially be better. I'll miss Deng but JJ drove me crazy. He got us some very tough baskets but he was horrible during the playoffs, classic disappearance act he's always been known for. I still haven't lost hope with McBob, I still think he's a solid player hope he comes back and has a good season for us, if Bosh or Whiteside miss any time we'll definitely need him. We have a lot of unknowns, just need to hope that we have more pleasant surprises than disappointments.

Sparky
07-28-2016, 01:11 PM
Completely hinges on the fact of how well Bosh and Whiteside play alongside one another, they didn't get many games together last year. Dragic can run and dominate the ball instead of always having to please Wade. If Winslow can develop even a mediocre shot and Richardson keeps it up and Waiters or Ellington have a good year shooting the rock, we could potentially be better. I'll miss Deng but JJ drove me crazy. He got us some very tough baskets but he was horrible during the playoffs, classic disappearance act he's always been known for. I still haven't lost hope with McBob, I still think he's a solid player hope he comes back and has a good season for us, if Bosh or Whiteside miss any time we'll definitely need him. We have a lot of unknowns, just need to hope that we have more pleasant surprises than disappointments.

Or if they don't mesh, then we could play Bosh with the 2nd unit. They'll be limiting his minutes anyway (if he makes it back) so why not have him lead the 2nd unit.

I'd like to see a rotation like this.........


Dragic, Weber
JRich, TJ
Winslow, Waiters
Babbitt, Bosh
Whiteside, Reed

Assume TJ and Waiters getting most of the backup Guard/Wing minutes but give Weber a chance for some of the backup PG minutes.

I may be in the minority with Babbitt, but I think his shooting will be desperately needed next to Winslow. And the defense of Winslow/Whiteside/Richardson will be enough to cover up Babbitt's shortcoming on defense.

Bosh with the second unit gives them the leadership and scoring help they'll need. He can also keep Waiters in check.

I think those would be our best 10. Not really excited about McBob, DWilliams, JJohnson, or Ellington.

naps
07-28-2016, 09:26 PM
If Bosh plays you cant reduce his minutes. His condition is medical, it's not an injury. If he plays he needs to be the featured guy on offense without a doubt and deservedly so.

Slug3
07-29-2016, 12:02 PM
If Bosh plays you cant reduce his minutes. His condition is medical, it's not an injury. If he plays he needs to be the featured guy on offense without a doubt and deservedly so.

If he plays Ill assume they won't reduce his minutes but maybe keep him out on some road trips where there might be a lot of flying.

akagiredsuns
08-11-2016, 09:40 AM
Dwyane Wade is gone. He was the heart and soul of HEAT basketball for 13 seasons. We fell in love his rookie year with his raw athleticism and knack for making big plays (capped off by a playoff buzzer beater against the Hornets). Dwyane has meant everything to the sports landscape of our city, and his legacy as a HEAT legend will never waiver.

And yet, having said all of that, Dwyane Wade's career is on the decline. He took a lesser role to win Championships with Lebron, and that helped hide his decline for a time, but it was none-the-less there. In the two seasons since Lebron left Dwyane has been been everything we could possibly hope for out of a mid-30's player, and yet he has not been enough. No enough to contend. Not really.

If you are still with me at this point, buckle up. It's about to get technical in here. This morning I set out to see how different the HEAT will be without Dwyane as the headliner. Here is what I found:


1. Miami plays better overall without Wade on the court. Last season Miami was 5.0 points per 100 possessions (about the length of a game) BETTER when Wade was on the BENCH.

2. Wade is no where near the defensive player he once was. Sure, he is still capable of impressive blocks here and there when he is locked in, but the numbers suggest that he is a liability defensively. Last season, for example, the HEAT were 6.1 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Wade on the BENCH.

3. He is in the middle of a steep offensive decline. Wade's Offensive Rating the past two seasons have been 102 and 103, his lowest since his rookie year. His shooting percentage last season was 45.6%, the lowest mark of his career. And the advanced shooting metrics show the same decline, with his True Shooting % also dipping to a career low. Finally, his PER (Player Efficiency Rating) last season was the lowest it has been since his rookie year.

4. The HEAT play better team basketball without Wade. Shouldn't need statistics to back this one up, but just for fun: HEAT assist rate goes up without him and the turnover percentage goes down without him.

5. Wade and Goran do not mesh well. When Wade is on the floor with Dragic the HEAT are a net 1.3 points better than opponents (The lowest of all two-man combos involving Goran). When Goran plays with anyone else not named Wade? +2.1, +3.8, +4.1, +4.5, +5.8, +6.1, +6.6, +6.9, +9.5. Another interesting note, his highest combos are with Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow.

6. Statistically, Whiteside plays better with Richardson, Dragic, Winslow, and Udrih than he did with Wade


In summary, the HEAT are in the middle of a rebuild AND poised to be better this season without Wade than they were with him in 2015-2016. We can expect Goran's usage percentage to increase and the minutes for Justise, Josh, and Tyler to skyrocket... but both of those things are good for the HEAT (at least according to advanced statistics from last year). The HEAT were a better team with Wade on the bench last season, and should (theoretically) be a better team with him in Chicago in 2016-2017.


Source: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2016/on-off/

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Wow. I don't know where to start laughing.

#1 They also won't have Bosh when the season starts and for who knows how long. Whiteside should've gone to Dallas and left this sinking ship and it will sink quick.

#2 Um Wade is still a hell of a defensive player. Miami was #2 in defense at the SG position. Meaning Wade was still a shut-down 2 guard even now in his veteran years, so this idiotic statement gets debunked quickly.

#3 The guy has been playing for 14 seasons. Um, every superstar starts declining past 35 offensively. He can't average 25 points a game forever. His numbers offensively will decline. That's just a given. Ignorant statement.

#4 Beg to differ on this one regardless what the records say. You still need a leader. Given how Whiteside was acting last year, doubt he's ready to take on a leadership role. He will be getting moronic technicals. Dragic or Winslow are not leaders, this is a team of followers who followed Wade. Again, where is Bosh. No indication he will be around anytime soon.

#5 LOL I'm just gonna :facepalm: on this one and move on to #6.

#6 Whiteside is gonna put up good numbers because there is no one else really on this team other than Dragic. Give me a break with Richardson. The kid has a long way to go to develop. Winslow has shown flashes, but even an old washed up Amare was much better at times.

The Heat are basically not starting over from scratch but definitely downgraded. If Bosh comes back, sooner than later, then they have a fighting chance at a #8 seed, but if Bosh stays out indefinitely or ultimately retires, this is a team that may play a lot of tough close games, but lose a lot of heartbreakers as well. The good ol' days are gone Heat. Wake up to reality. Final record: 32-50.

AllBall
08-11-2016, 03:40 PM
Meh, 35 wins without Bosh and everyone else healthy. 45 wins with Bosh and everyone else healthy.