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View Full Version : GS offensive output with KD in place of Barnes



Chronz
07-09-2016, 10:35 AM
This isn't a projection, just what the numbers look like if we simply swapped the looks that Barnes got with KD's efficiency in place. This does nothing to account for his potential usage rate in GS and the influence associated with it, its more like a comparison of what GS would produce if KD simply settled for Harrison Barnes role (basically half the attempts).



Im not breaking down specific sets or opponent distances, which we could do if you guys wanted to get fancy but just merely breaking this down by 4 classes of shots. Pull-up J's, Catch and shoot jumpers, inside shots and "other" (it makes up a very small % of shots so we can forgive the vagueness abit).



Catch and Shoot: HB was at .562 eFG% with a 3pt% of 39.2
KD was at .595 and .408 respectively

Pull Up J's: HB was at .445 eFG% with a 3pt% of 25.0
KD was at .511 and .374 respectively

Inside Shots: HB was at .539 FG%
KD was at .659



GS with Barnes on the year(RANK#):
2PT%: .528(#1), 3PT%: .416(#1) ----- 114.9 PPG(#1)

GS with KD:
2PT%: .535(#1), 3PT%: .417(#1) ----- 115.8 PPG(#1)

What a staggering improvement right? Anyone know how many wins a single point increase is worth when you're dealing with the very best team in the league wins wise?


Couple of caveats, I dont have the numbers for turnovers or free throw rates, this is strictly about shot selection and its influence there. I noticed there isn't much of a difference in their catch and shoot efficiency, there is a HUGE difference in their off the dribble abilities but since Barnes rarely over extended himself it doesn't change the overall 3pt efficiency much. Where KD really elevated the Warriors is with his slashing game and shots inside 10ft. I have to imagine he will help with drawing fouls and limiting turnovers as well.

So all this goes without accounting for the better quality of looks KD will provide to his teammates and vice versa, also the fact that hes surely going to be able to get more looks off himself than Barnes did. You wont be able to double this team from anywhere on the court so everyone should experience the best gravity field ever.



Well thats the baseline folks, dont know why I did this but figured it would be a decent starting point. Im going to do a projection thread where I basically guess what the usage breakdown will be and how it could influence each players efficiency.



Heres hoping they dont mesh or at the least feel the sting of herpes.

Vee-Rex
07-09-2016, 11:57 AM
The league's only hope is if they don't mesh well (which is kinda hopeless). What makes GS dangerous is their ball movement, especially in transition. This ball movement, coincidentally, was a factor in why they lost in the finals. It's important to realize that the Cavs never, ever outright double-teamed the Warriors players prior to them setting up and running their offense. Every single time Curry or anyone else brought the ball up the court they were guarded by a single man.

The Cavs DID double or trap Curry/Klay in only 2 situations:

1. Off the Pick-n-Roll. They either trapped or hedged really really hard and made Curry commit more turnovers than usual. There was also a lot of contact in the finals but the refs let them play (LeBron had to adjust to this contact or he would've gotten 10 turnovers a game), which ultimately helped the Cavs defend the Warriors better.

2. Trapping off-ball screens. The Cavs tried trapping a lot on these (games 1 and 2) but the Warriors made us pay by slipping the screener to the rim or running double-screens. Eventually the Cavs just decided to do this much less (which lead to GS having more 3-point opportunities).

It's important to distinguish the situations in which the Cavs actually did "double" or trap, because it shows that GS had every opportunity to make isolation plays at the start of their possession.

Curry could've gone ISO against Kyrie far more than he did but elected to call for the PnR or initiate the offense (which led to traps and double teams). Because of the trapping, the ball moves much more and there was an open Barnes or Green at the 3-point line. The Cavs, especially in game 7, decided to live with this. Why not? One-game-takes-all, they were gonna live with Green and Barnes and Iggy beating them.

In game 7 Green shot remarkably well in the 1st half (truly overachieved there) but that was balanced out by Barnes bricking everything the last few games.

Insert Durant.

Now, when the Warriors initiate their offense, instead of having to rely on Barnes, that player is KD. And Chronz already broke down the numbers. We thought GS's offense was a nightmare last year, but they can potentially be much, much, much scarier. It's insane to think of how they could actually be better.

My point is: I believe the Warriors lack of ISO actually played against them for large stretches in the finals. They had to move the ball to be effective, but moving the ball so much led to more turnovers AND a wide-open or semi-open Harrison Barnes.

Steph is the only Warrior that regularly attacks in iso. But, as I mentioned in the finals game-thread I always breathed a sigh of relief when Curry missed just one shot from ISO'ing, because he always seemed to disappear and/or not be nearly as aggressive after that (he'll still shoot if open, but he seems to lose confidence in repetitive ISO attempts).

Insert Durant.

Now, the Dubs have another go-to ISO player that can score effectively. Momentum changes during the game and sometimes a defense is so riled up/full of energy and if the refs are allowing contact, constant ball-movement has a good chance of causing a turnover or putting the ball in a streaky, less reliable player's hands. When you have players that can get buckets through ISO'ing, it's extremely demoralizing to a defense, knowing that there's no way they could have played it better.

It's gonna take time (half a season or a full season or who knows) to mesh well, but assuming this time isn't destructive or anything, the Dubs are gonna be unstoppable.

tredigs
07-09-2016, 12:19 PM
Everything changes for everyone when you replace a player who is never doubled with one that by and large has to be doubled. All efficiences improve, Durants maybe more so than everyone. Him and/or Curry pushing 70% TS on 25ppg would not shock me in the least.

Chronz
07-09-2016, 01:12 PM
Everything changes for everyone when you replace a player who is never doubled with one that by and large has to be doubled. All efficiences improve, Durants maybe more so than everyone. Him and/or Curry pushing 70% TS on 25ppg would not shock me in the least.

I'm not sure what to compare this to. Do you foresee them sharing the ball fairly equally? Does Curry average more or less assists/hockey ast? Do both these guys get way more catch and shoot opportunities?

Im thinking whatever isos Klay got will be Durants now, he might be the guy who suffers the most individually, similar to DG blowing up and him struggling out the gates.

CardinalRed24
07-09-2016, 02:07 PM
Yeah Klay Thompson is more than likely the one to be most effected by KDs presence in the lineup.
But he'll still get his shots. There's no more double teaming this team, so he'll get plenty of open looks.

Once their comfortable playing together, its going to be insane. Idek how guys like Livingston/Iggy will get opportunities on the offensive end anymore. Curry/Klay/KD will be scoring around 70-75 points per night alone..

Chronz
07-09-2016, 04:43 PM
Yeah Klay Thompson is more than likely the one to be most effected by KDs presence in the lineup.
But he'll still get his shots. There's no more double teaming this team, so he'll get plenty of open looks.

Once their comfortable playing together, its going to be insane. Idek how guys like Livingston/Iggy will get opportunities on the offensive end anymore. Curry/Klay/KD will be scoring around 70-75 points per night alone..

Agreed, Im thinking back on a guy like Ray Allen with the Big-3. Lets say Pierce was never on the team, Ray would get the most looks on the squad, almost all the off the ball sets and secondary PnR's would revolve around him. He was clearly capable of producing at a much higher level but for the sake of the team, he allowed the superior 1 on 1 player to take that job, an easy choice considering he was the greatest off the ball player in the league at the time. The tradeoff in volume came in efficiency but not as dramatically as you might expect. I think Klay is at his peak so I think he has a much higher increase than an aging Ray.

Monta is beast
07-09-2016, 06:03 PM
They scored 142 points per 100 possesions with the death lineup last year. Im expecting 150-155 this year

Scoots
07-09-2016, 06:35 PM
There is nothing Barnes does better than KD other than not use many possesions.

I expect Curry and KD to have a similar usage, Klay will initiate even fewer sets but probably finish a higher percentage with WIDE open 3s.

Green is the worst offensive player in the super death lineup so I expect his scoring game will drop the most.

Most people seem to talk about the Warriors in the half court ... the Warriors on the break are going to be even better.

It's going to take a while to jell and figure out how all these different players are going to work so I don't think they will start out anywhere near as good as the team was at the start of last year.