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View Full Version : GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS "SUPER DEATH LINEUP" Projections



Lionel20
07-05-2016, 03:47 PM
Obviously there are many unknown variables...

But here are the statistical projections for the 2016-17 Warriors "Death Lineup"

*Assumption: Each player duplicates the same durability
*The margins Durant increases team efficiency is determined by difference in Barnes-Durant VORP

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bIHpdf7KDxgDoR5nTyR5jNrfbNPNlVYKwVjOvAnm1Ck/pubhtml

montybeasty
07-05-2016, 04:51 PM
The elite 4

kobe4thewinbang
07-05-2016, 05:13 PM
I dunno. Is that what the lineup will likely be? Draymond at center? Yikes.

C - Draymond Green
PF - Kevin Durant
SF - Andre Iguodala
SG - Klay Thompson
PG - Steph Curry

I figured they would go with Pachulia or Varejao, have KD at the 3 and Draymond at the 4.

tredigs
07-05-2016, 05:18 PM
I dunno. Is that what the lineup will likely be? Draymond at center? Yikes.

C - Draymond Green
PF - Kevin Durant
SF - Andre Iguodala
SG - Klay Thompson
PG - Steph Curry

I figured they would go with Pachulia or Varejao, have KD at the 3 and Draymond at the 4.

"Death Lineup" is when they run Draymond at C. Their starting center will be Zaza.

I think some of these projected #'s are actually a bit low. With the amount of space he will have, I'd be surprised if KD doesn't reach ~42%+ from three on the season, especially in this lineup. Realistically all their %'s are going to rise. Curry will flirt and possibly hit 25 PPG on 50/50/90 with the lack of overloading he is about to face.

Chronz
07-05-2016, 06:26 PM
Jesus Christ


The only saving grace is that Barnes got used to defending 4s while i haven't seen that from kd consistently enough.

The load for him might be so small that he focuses much more on defense.

What a ***** move. I just bet on their over under but that doesn't mean i have to like it. I'm getting madder by the day too

basch152
07-05-2016, 06:39 PM
"Death Lineup" is when they run Draymond at C. Their starting center will be Zaza.

I think some of these projected #'s are actually a bit low. With the amount of space he will have, I'd be surprised if KD doesn't reach ~42%+ from three on the season, especially in this lineup. Realistically all their %'s are going to rise. Curry will flirt and possibly hit 25 PPG on 50/50/90 with the lack of overloading he is about to face.

I'd be very surprised if curry averages 25 ppg.

I'd expect him to drop bacl to around 22-23 ppg, but at an efficiency mever before seen.

tredigs
07-05-2016, 07:13 PM
I'd be very surprised if curry averages 25 ppg.

I'd expect him to drop bacl to around 22-23 ppg, but at an efficiency mever before seen.

That would be a large drop off in attempts and/or mpg to go from 30 to 22 with an increased efficiency. It would be like nearly all of KDs increased attempts via Barnes being taken directly from Curry instead of the team a whole. We will see. I expect about 25 ppg from them both.

@Chronz what is their win total set at? Surprised it is out with free agency still open. Smart line seems like 67.5 wins.

Lionel20
07-05-2016, 08:10 PM
That would be a large drop off in attempts and/or mpg to go from 30 to 22 with an increased efficiency. It would be like nearly all of KDs increased attempts via Barnes being taken directly from Curry instead of the team a whole. We will see. I expect about 25 ppg from them both.

@Chronz what is their win total set at? Surprised it is out with free agency still open. Smart line seems like 67.5 wins.

Yeah, I doubt Curry will be as low as 22-23 PPG. As you we saying, the efficiency increase will makeup for much of the decrease in volume.

I added a few tweeks in my projections. I think GSW will run up larger margins, although I don't know what their full roster will look like.

I'm not sure if they'll retain Speights, Speights was much more efficient offensively than West last year. West is better defensively.

Regardless, I think the margin of victory goes up, to which I assume amounts for slightly less minutes for the death lineup.

For instance, I have Klay @32.70 MPG, lower than the 33.32 last year.

Durant can find his own shot better than any of the other players on the Warriors roster. I estimated that in the Death Lineup w/ Durant they take about 7 more shots per game than they did with Barnes. I think Durant's taking away mostly bench players shots... I could change my projections based on who they retain and acquire. I think Durant and Green will play the most minutes, and I have no idea how the Coaching staff will handle the substitutions.

Durant took 19.2 shots per game in OKC last year. I think that slightly reduces to 18 per game. I see no reason why Curry and Klay can't average about a shot or two less per game w/ Durant.

The offensive efficiency is where I believe the largest improvements will occur.

GSW eFG% 2015-16:

Green = .550
Curry = .629
Thompson = .569
Barnes = .530
Iguodala = .551

Team = .579

GSW eFG% 2016-17:

Green = .558
Curry = .645
Thompson = .582
Durant = .583 (Last Year = .573)
Iguodala = .546

Team = .594

Career highs for each player not named Iguodala in the new death lineup.

With that jump efficiency I can easily see Curry @ 27-28 points per, and Durant btw 26-27... and my projections were conservative, like you mentioned I have Durant right @ 40% from 3pt.

RB#20
07-05-2016, 08:21 PM
Golden State will have 57 wins, but still win the whole thing. Thanks.

Wrigheyes4MVP
07-06-2016, 09:42 AM
Just looking at that lineup is kinda scary

Vee-Rex
07-06-2016, 11:39 AM
Golden State will have 57 wins, but still win the whole thing. Thanks.

I think they'll have more than 57 wins, but I don't think they'll reach 73. I'd say 63-65 wins. But they'll still most likely win it all of course.

Regardless of win total, there are gonna be some really ugly blowouts this coming season. I mean like... 132-80 kinda ugly. There's gonna be some games where GS is just gonna smash whoever they're facing, whether or not it's the 76ers or an all-star team.

Chronz
07-06-2016, 11:50 AM
I think they'll have more than 57 wins, but I don't think they'll reach 73. I'd say 63-65 wins. But they'll still most likely win it all of course.

Regardless of win total, there are gonna be some really ugly blowouts this coming season. I mean like... 132-80 kinda ugly. There's gonna be some games where GS is just gonna smash whoever they're facing, whether or not it's the 76ers or an all-star team.

Teams that win that way tend to win a **** ton. Unless they start punting games by sitting out some of their stars ala Spurs style, I think they should still top 66.

Scoots
07-06-2016, 11:58 AM
The question I have is which of the super-death lineup is going to miss out on making the all-star game?

Iguodala and Green are my guesses just because scoring always counts for more.

Scoots
07-06-2016, 11:59 AM
If you watch KD play vs Horford you can see that KD CAN play D on a 4 ... but my guess is he'd rather not.

RateSports
07-06-2016, 12:17 PM
Is the "Super Death Lineup" going to show up for the Finals or choke?

Vee-Rex
07-06-2016, 12:20 PM
The question I have is which of the super-death lineup is going to miss out on making the all-star game?

Iguodala and Green are my guesses just because scoring always counts for more.

Most likely Iggy for sure.

The Hawks had 4 all-stars a couple years ago. I know there's more talent in the West but if the Dubs come out owning teams left and right then who knows, maybe the Splash Fam (no longer the bros) + Green will be in the all-star game.

aman_13
07-06-2016, 12:50 PM
I dunno. Is that what the lineup will likely be? Draymond at center? Yikes.

C - Draymond Green
PF - Kevin Durant
SF - Andre Iguodala
SG - Klay Thompson
PG - Steph Curry

I figured they would go with Pachulia or Varejao, have KD at the 3 and Draymond at the 4.

They are playing 2k in Oakland. I can't believe that's their lineup.

Monta is beast
07-07-2016, 02:21 AM
That death lineup averaged 142 points per 100 possesions last season and your replacing the weakest offensive player from that group (not a knock on HB) with the 1st or 2nd best scorer in the league curry 1a kd 1b imo..

Monta is beast
07-07-2016, 02:22 AM
I would say klay is the least likely to make the a.s.t...but i think they all do

goingfor28
07-07-2016, 03:53 AM
If you watch KD play vs Horford you can see that KD CAN play D on a 4 ... but my guess is he'd rather not.
Ya bc Horford is slow and not all that athletic. KD won't be able to guard guys like Blake Griffin or Anthony Davis 1 on 1. Either way GS is gonna come away with around 65 wins imo. Can't see them gunning for the record again, they'll pretty easily get the 1 seed and should be more rested come playoff time.

TylerSL
07-07-2016, 06:57 AM
I guess I see them going something like

Steph Curry-26/9/4 on 53/46/92 shooting and he'll make between 300-350 3's
Klay Thompson-17/4/4 on 48/43/88 shooting and he'll make around 200 3's
Andre Iguodala-6/4/3 on 47/36/62 shooting and he'll make about 65-70 3's
Kevin Durant-25/6/9 on 51/41/90 shooting and he'll make around 250 3's
Draymond Green-12/9/9 on 52/39/71 shooting and he'll make around 130 3's

So that's 86 points, 32 assists, 29 rebounds and close to 1,000 3's between those 5.

tredigs
07-07-2016, 11:30 AM
I guess I see them going something like

Steph Curry-26/9/4 on 53/46/92 shooting and he'll make between 300-350 3's
Klay Thompson-17/4/4 on 48/43/88 shooting and he'll make around 200 3's
Andre Iguodala-6/4/3 on 47/36/62 shooting and he'll make about 65-70 3's
Kevin Durant-25/6/9 on 51/41/90 shooting and he'll make around 250 3's
Draymond Green-12/9/9 on 52/39/71 shooting and he'll make around 130 3's

So that's 86 points, 32 assists, 29 rebounds and close to 1,000 3's between those 5.

I think KD slightly outscores Curry, but I think Curry pushes 50% from three on ~350 threes, maybe more. Klay will have a good deal more than 200 threes. Probably 275 range on 18/4/2. The O will shift slightly with the ball in Dray's hands less and he'll probably average something like 11/10/5.5.

I'll say this, for those people who don't like 3's, they will hate this team, because they're a comin'. Essentially every set possession will be screens and ball movement until the defense is a split second late and one of the Splash Bro's + KD get an open look. They'll have to use KD's ability to ISO as well. Not being able to double the best ISO player in the game will be hell on a defense and likely a tactic to get the opposition in foul trouble early. I can't even imagine being a defensive assistant coach trying to piece together a game plan to defend them. Warriors broke the game.

lol, please
07-07-2016, 10:03 PM
I think KD slightly outscores Curry, but I think Curry pushes 50% from three on ~350 threes, maybe more. Klay will have a good deal more than 200 threes. Probably 275 range on 18/4/2. The O will shift slightly with the ball in Dray's hands less and he'll probably average something like 11/10/5.5.

I'll say this, for those people who don't like 3's, they will hate this team, because they're a comin'. Essentially every set possession will be screens and ball movement until the defense is a split second late and one of the Splash Bro's + KD get an open look. They'll have to use KD's ability to ISO as well. Not being able to double the best ISO player in the game will be hell on a defense and likely a tactic to get the opposition in foul trouble early. I can't even imagine being a defensive assistant coach trying to piece together a game plan to defend them. Warriors broke the game.

Teams will be in a disarray trying to cover KD/Klay/Curry. The spacing on the floor, the floor will be wide open and there will be great looks throughout every game. I can't wait.

hamburger
07-07-2016, 10:34 PM
Teams will be in a disarray trying to cover KD/Klay/Curry. The spacing on the floor, the floor will be wide open and there will be great looks throughout every game. I can't wait.

I expect them to lose some games early in the year as they form a cohesive unit. I don't think they'll even try to beat the all time win record. They'll want to be rested come playoff time. Once they figure things out I think Klay/Curry/Durant's points per game will increase. Green's will go down. As will Zaza's. The big 3 will be more efficient as well.

JasonJohnHorn
07-08-2016, 02:12 PM
I dunno. Is that what the lineup will likely be? Draymond at center? Yikes.

C - Draymond Green
PF - Kevin Durant
SF - Andre Iguodala
SG - Klay Thompson
PG - Steph Curry

I figured they would go with Pachulia or Varejao, have KD at the 3 and Draymond at the 4.

That is an All-Star at every position, and three MVP's (one final's MVP, and 2 reg. seas. MVPs).


Had they kept Bogut, they could have had six former or current All-Stars.

tredigs
07-08-2016, 02:48 PM
That is an All-Star at every position, and three MVP's (one final's MVP, and 2 reg. seas. MVPs).


Had they kept Bogut, they could have had six former or current All-Stars.

The last 3 MVP's, 4 current All-NBA players, the AS 3pt champion, the 3pt record breaker, the last two DPOY runner-up. 5 of the last 7 scoring champs. Yeah, not shabby.

Scoots
07-08-2016, 03:49 PM
The last 3 MVP's, 4 current All-NBA players, the AS 3pt champion, the 3pt record breaker, the last two DPOY runner-up. 5 of the last 7 scoring champs. Yeah, not shabby.

all-time single quarter scoring record holder.
all-time overtime scoring record holder.
50/45/90 player who lead the league in scoring
best passing/defending PF in the NBA

and they added
50/40/90 player
One of the most efficient post scorers in the NBA (a GLARING hole last year)