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Lionel20
06-20-2016, 03:35 PM
LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE!!!

Each player is ranked according to individually estimated contribution, or Value Share.

My concept of Value Shares is based on linear weights including Rosenbaum's Alternate Win Score, and the Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) metric. Because each of these metrics seem to lack especially in measuring individual defensive effectiveness, through my research I've implemented my own tweeks, most importantly to factor in defensive value not captured in the box score.

The Value Shares formula is a counting stat with a high correlation with wins (I can bore you with the details in a later post), it comprises of other details including my own recalculated Usg%, but significant adjustments are the reassessed box stats.

The first reassessment is the time period regulation, which covers among others things the change in pace, generally from decade to decade although I made some adjustments to mirror major NBA rule changes. It's fundamentally impossible to even start with comparing players across from different time periods without first forming a neutral period to serve as the common denominator. Generally, RPG, FTA in the 60s is higher than it is today, possibly due to pace. I didn't get into the "why" much, although there are very good explanations there. I simply took account of the league averages. The most important feature of the time period regulations, is of course which time period do I denominate all the box stats? In concluding my research, I found the early 90s to be the most neutral time period in NBA history to this point. By neutral I mean, the league averages and pace were fairly moderate, and "top-to-bottom" there was generally high level play from all positions.

That brings me to my next reassessment, the league quality adjustment. There are many factors that have affected the NBA quality of competition in my estimation: Expansion, Demographics, Rule Changes, etc. In my selection of the 90s as the most neutral period, the rules in particular allowed for a more balanced game. The lane dimensions compared to the early 60s, physicality compared to today's NBA (hand-checking, defending around screens, etc.), Rules governing offensive/defensive play in the paint, all allowed for a more quality game. If you were a poor defensive player, you were more likely to get exposed and exploited, if you were a great offensive talent, you were more likely to showcase your skill. In measuring League Quality, I used ADJP48 for average players, generally per decade for the seasons available, and average player WS/48 for the seasons where ADJP48 is not available.

Lastly,

*I prorated the adjusted box stats for strike-shortened seasons
*All Season stats totals include post season stats.
*I made slight adjustments in 2pt FG, FGA for pre-3pt NBA periods
*I made slight adjustments for Assists totals for pre-NBA/ABA merger seasons, it's my belief that scorekeepers were less generous during these periods
*70s ABA league quality = 60s NBA league quality
*Used multiple statistical models to estimate unavailable Box Stats
*GP are calculated as Total Minutes/36 = GP
etc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XUjK5NG4FTPoSQtGg_wJzpPuNOFA6SpirolxUVp-aoE/pubhtml

PurpleLynch
06-20-2016, 03:43 PM
I won't explain myself a lot(really drunk right now),but Howard ahead of Drexler,Erving,Robertson,Ewing,Baylor,Pippen,Russe ll,Kidd(and the list is too long) speak for itself on why these experiments fall short.

PurpleLynch
06-20-2016, 03:45 PM
Plus,I think you can't compare in any way athletes of different eras in this manner.

Lionel20
06-20-2016, 04:11 PM
I won't explain myself a lot(really drunk right now),but Howard ahead of Drexler,Erving,Robertson,Ewing,Baylor,Pippen,Russe ll,Kidd(and the list is too long) speak for itself on why these experiments fall short.

Following Shaq's 2000 Season, which I score as the most dominating season in NBA History all things considered, the NBA introduced a series of regulations through 2005, that opened new advantages to perimeter players. The NBA began these regulations in the mid-to-late 90s, but expanded and enforced them to a greater extent in the early 2000s. It's not an accident that the long era's of dominant Centers discontinued, it was a pre-calculated measure.

Howard, was a good as he was in a wing-players time period. In order to properly compare Centers like Howard, Pau Gasol to their predecessors at the position, you must take these facts into a account.

PurpleLynch
06-20-2016, 04:24 PM
Following Shaq's 2000 Season, which I score as the most dominating season in NBA History all things considered, the NBA introduced a series of regulations through 2005, that opened new advantages to perimeter players. The NBA began these regulations in the mid-to-late 90s, but expanded and enforced them to a greater extent in the early 2000s. It's not an accident that the long era's of dominant Centers discontinued, it was a pre-calculated measure.

Howard, was a good as he was in a wing-players time period. In order to properly compare Centers like Howard, Pau Gasol to their predecessors at the position, you must take these facts into a account.

I'm not comparing centers. This thread is called "The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player list and...",so I would assume that your formula should work to rank the best players of the Nba(regardless of roles),with the N1 as the best player of all time. Now,you put Howard above all those players I mentioned,who I think(and also the majority of fans and critics) all ranks better than Howard. That's why I'm saying it's not working.

FlashBolt
06-20-2016, 04:33 PM
This is too analytical for most of us. Props for your work but damn, are you an actuary lol

Lionel20
06-20-2016, 05:37 PM
I'm not comparing centers. This thread is called "The Ultimate NBA Greatest Player list and...",so I would assume that your formula should work to rank the best players of the Nba(regardless of roles),with the N1 as the best player of all time. Now,you put Howard above all those players I mentioned,who I think(and also the majority of fans and critics) all ranks better than Howard. That's why I'm saying it's not working.

I'm comparing players across all positions obviously. The last 15 years, in alignment with NBA rules changes, the NBA has shifted to much more of a 3 pt. shooters game much to the detriment of the Center Position. My work, among many other things, attempts to shift the pendulum back to a period more consistent with the way the game has been played throughout history.

Lionel20
06-20-2016, 05:39 PM
This is too analytical for most of us. Props for your work but damn, are you an actuary lol

I'm an Accountant so close,

But I'm always open to ways I can make my work more simplified.