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View Full Version : Is there a worse representation of analytics out there than FiveThirtyEight?



FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 01:20 AM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/steph-curry-trails-shaun-livingston-in-the-nba-finals-mvp-race/

They're at it again lol. Just continuing to prove that blindly throwing numbers together without context is duuuuuuumb.

Scoots
06-12-2016, 02:26 AM
They were just going for a reaction.

42-15-7
06-12-2016, 03:53 AM
Honestly, what's really interesting about that graph is that it shows KLove is one of the better players, and should clearly be getting more touches. (The Y axis in that graph should be reversed for clarity.)

It also makes clear that Kyrie is the train wreck on defense that everybody thinks he is.

Quinnsanity
06-12-2016, 04:03 AM
Someone put out the bat signal for PSK.

More-Than-Most
06-12-2016, 07:02 AM
Yet i got called an idiot for saying green/iggy/klay were all ahead of curry for the mvp and they will give curry the mvp just because he is their new baby and they feel sorry for him... now you can add livingston as well who is ahead of him on both sides of the ball... hell bring in bogut and barnes... we should start going by who hasnt been better than curry... but YO... as long as they win its irrelevant how **** he has been because from the bench he makes everyone better so much so that they go up by 4000 points when curry sits


Hes hurts









no wait hes healthy.






no wait... it depends on how he plays before we use the injury bug. Get back to me monday night at 10EST

ewing
06-12-2016, 07:44 AM
Honestly, what's really interesting about that graph is that it shows KLove is one of the better players, and should clearly be getting more touches. (The Y axis in that graph should be reversed for clarity.)

It also makes clear that Kyrie is the train wreck on defense that everybody thinks he is.

he should get more touches.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 09:00 AM
Honestly, what's really interesting about that graph is that it shows KLove is one of the better players, and should clearly be getting more touches. (The Y axis in that graph should be reversed for clarity.)

It also makes clear that Kyrie is the train wreck on defense that everybody thinks he is.

Lol, it's pretty funny that a statistical driven website has their Y axis flipped liked that. Graphing 101.

Love has to be the scapegoat, he can't be given a chance to shine.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 09:06 AM
Yet i got called an idiot for saying green/iggy/klay were all ahead of curry for the mvp and they will give curry the mvp just because he is their new baby and they feel sorry for him... now you can add livingston as well who is ahead of him on both sides of the ball... hell bring in bogut and barnes... we should start going by who hasnt been better than curry... but YO... as long as they win its irrelevant how **** he has been because from the bench he makes everyone better so much so that they go up by 4000 points when curry sits


Hes hurts









no wait hes healthy.






no wait... it depends on how he plays before we use the injury bug. Get back to me monday night at 10EST

Tristan Thompson > LeBron James in the Finals. Cavs offensive rating with Thompson on in the Finals is 136, LeBron's is just 104. Thompson's Orating/Drating differential is +19, LeBron's is -3. Thompson = Cavs MVP.

IndyRealist
06-12-2016, 09:15 AM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/steph-curry-trails-shaun-livingston-in-the-nba-finals-mvp-race/

They're at it again lol. Just continuing to prove that blindly throwing numbers together without context is duuuuuuumb.

"But if there’s going to be a silly award for contributing “value” over a small number of games – and we’re willing to give that award to the Andre Iguodala’s of the sport when they step up – Curry’s uneven performance so far still puts him in a pretty sizeable hole, especially relative to his backup, Shaun Livingston.....

Of course, the player-tracking doesn’t capture all value contributed, nor does MVP voting hew perfectly to value. If Curry puts up big numbers in a Game 5 victory, he will almost certainly win the award; the same may be true of virtually anyone with the race seeming so wide open. But at this moment, the balance of evidence suggests that Curry’s mid-range-shooting backup has been the most on fire so far."

Sounds like context to me.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 09:25 AM
"But if there’s going to be a silly award for contributing “value” over a small number of games – and we’re willing to give that award to the Andre Iguodala’s of the sport when they step up – Curry’s uneven performance so far still puts him in a pretty sizeable hole, especially relative to his backup, Shaun Livingston.....

Of course, the player-tracking doesn’t capture all value contributed, nor does MVP voting hew perfectly to value. If Curry puts up big numbers in a Game 5 victory, he will almost certainly win the award; the same may be true of virtually anyone with the race seeming so wide open. But at this moment, the balance of evidence suggests that Curry’s mid-range-shooting backup has been the most on fire so far."

Sounds like context to me.

Directly comparing numbers like that with a backup and starter, not to mention the ridiculous amount of attention the Cavs D is paying to Curry vs Livingston, is a direct and offensive ignorance to basketball context. You want real life context? Curry scored almost as many points in game 4 (38) as Livingston has scored all series (40).

By their same chart, Tristan Thompson is the MVP of the Cavs so far. JR Smith is contributing more offensively than anyone on Cleveland and he and Thompson are their only positive offensive players. Yeah, numbers are fun, but sports isn't just numbers and that's where sites like this monstrosity fail.

valade16
06-12-2016, 09:46 AM
I'm not sure who to give FMVP to this year. It does seem odd that Steph might get it for having 1 good game thus far though.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 10:15 AM
I'm not sure who to give FMVP to this year. It does seem odd that Steph might get it for having 1 good game thus far though.

To me, Curry is now comfortably in the lead. I think he was good in game 2, just not great thanks to foul trouble and such limited minutes. He was a +25 in 25 minutes though, his impact was enormous. Game 4 he was great and had the best game of the series. In games 1 and 2 the best players for GS were Livingston and Green. These were home games and complete blowouts, and in Livingston's case at the end of the day a 20 point game isn't Earth shattering.

However, on the road where series' are really won and loss, both Green and Livingston have shrunk while Curry has blossomed. Livingston hasn't played 20 minutes in either game and has scored 13 total points. Green has had shades of OKC going 4-17 for 15 points, although at least he's doing everything else well this time.

Games 1-3 were all big blowouts so while each game had it's own MVP they were all far more team efforts than individual. Game 4 was the first close game and with so much on the line in the series difference of 3-1 vs 2-2, Curry came in and dominated to give Golden State a commanding lead that all but ends the series.

His individual game MVP far exceeds the honors of game 1 and 2 and the other contenders have had their lows this series as well.

IndyRealist
06-12-2016, 10:51 AM
Directly comparing numbers like that with a backup and starter, not to mention the ridiculous amount of attention the Cavs D is paying to Curry vs Livingston, is a direct and offensive ignorance to basketball context. You want real life context? Curry scored almost as many points in game 4 (38) as Livingston has scored all series (40).

By their same chart, Tristan Thompson is the MVP of the Cavs so far. JR Smith is contributing more offensively than anyone on Cleveland and he and Thompson are their only positive offensive players. Yeah, numbers are fun, but sports isn't just numbers and that's where sites like this monstrosity fail.

They state right from the start that this is "silly". I have no problem with their analysis, and it's certainly more informative that "total points scored this series".

And you're perfectly willing to ignore abysmal performances and only concentrate on the "highs", over steady production in every game. No matter how much you do in one game, it can only get you one win. That's a context you're leaving out.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 11:32 AM
They state right from the start that this is "silly". I have no problem with their analysis, and it's certainly more informative that "total points scored this series".

They said the award is silly, not their analysis. There's nothing informative about a chart that states that Shaun Livingston and Tristan Thompson have been the most valuable players for their respective teams in this series. JR Smith and Tristan Thompson are the only positive offensive players for Cleveland while LeBron James and Kyrie Irving have been a negative? From a journalistic standpoint, posting an article that presents information this way is irresponsible.


And you're perfectly willing to ignore abysmal performances and only concentrate on the "highs", over steady production in every game. No matter how much you do in one game, it can only get you one win. That's a context you're leaving out.

Abysmal performances? Curry was great in game 4, good in game 2, bad in game 1 and everyone sucked in game 3. After scoring 20 points in game 1, Livingston has scored 7, 5 and 8 points. What steady production have I missed? Has he made any notable impact at all the last three games? Are we really going to fawn over a guy playing good D off the bench for 20 MPG like we've never seen a basketball game before? Seems like his game 1, of which he wasn't the best player by much as Green and Iggy have healthy cases too, has primarily been his entire impact for the series.

If you vote for Livingston as Finals MVP that would suggest that he's been better than Curry, and that the Warriors would have been better of starting Livingston and playing him 32 MPG in Curry's role and having Curry off the bench playing 22 MPG in Livingston's role. I'm sorry, but if anyone thinks that then they are just stupid.

flea
06-12-2016, 11:40 AM
I think 538 is complete junk and thus didn't read the article, but I do think Livingston outplayed Curry in at least the first 2 games. Still, Curry is the basis for a lot of what they do on offense and he's played pretty will since. I still think Draymond has been the best, but it's been a total team effort. 1-5 starters have had great moments and 3 bench players have played very well. It's been a complete team effort and I think FMVP is still up in there (not least because the series isn't over).

IndyRealist
06-12-2016, 12:00 PM
They said the award is silly, not their analysis. There's nothing informative about a chart that states that Shaun Livingston and Tristan Thompson have been the most valuable players for their respective teams in this series. JR Smith and Tristan Thompson are the only positive offensive players for Cleveland while LeBron James and Kyrie Irving have been a negative? From a journalistic standpoint, posting an article that presents information this way is irresponsible.



Abysmal performances? Curry was great in game 4, good in game 2, bad in game 1 and everyone sucked in game 3. After scoring 20 points in game 1, Livingston has scored 7, 5 and 8 points. What steady production have I missed? Has he made any notable impact at all the last three games? Are we really going to fawn over a guy playing good D off the bench for 20 MPG like we've never seen a basketball game before? Seems like his game 1, of which he wasn't the best player by much as Green and Iggy have healthy cases too, has primarily been his entire impact for the series.

If you vote for Livingston as Finals MVP that would suggest that he's been better than Curry, and that the Warriors would have been better of starting Livingston and playing him 32 MPG in Curry's role and having Curry off the bench playing 22 MPG in Livingston's role. I'm sorry, but if anyone thinks that then they are just stupid.

They said the whole premise of a FMVP is silly BECAUSE OF SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, then presented their evaluation of FMVP. They in effect say the numbers don't really mean anything, it's simply something that basketball fans talk about. They are saying not to draw conclusions from the numbers, right at the beginning.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 12:02 PM
I think 538 is complete junk and thus didn't read the article, but I do think Livingston outplayed Curry in at least the first 2 games. Still, Curry is the basis for a lot of what they do on offense and he's played pretty will since. I still think Draymond has been the best, but it's been a total team effort. 1-5 starters have had great moments and 3 bench players have played very well. It's been a complete team effort and I think FMVP is still up in there (not least because the series isn't over).

Yeah, that site is analytics at it's worst. Really does a disservice to the movement with it's high exposure being posted on ESPN.com. I normally skip it, but that click bait headline got me so I'm guilty lmao.

I think Curry has a comfy lead now after game 4, but just like one game 4 changed the race dramatically so could game 5 or a potential game 6. If Curry has a big game 5 and they close it out, obviously he walks away with it. Likewise, if he had a poor game and Green had a big game and they close it out then I think he can jump right back in front. I think Green had a very comfy lead after games 1 and 2 but his drop off the last two has been equally big. 4-17 for 15 points last two games overall, just too big a hit.

This has definitely been a huge team effort and certainly isn't one of those dominant Finals MVP. Who knows, maybe tomorrow is Klay's day to shine and the Warriors have a different best player in all 4 wins lol.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 12:08 PM
They said the whole premise of a FMVP is silly BECAUSE OF SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, then presented their evaluation of FMVP. They in effect say the numbers don't really mean anything, it's simply something that basketball fans talk about. They are saying not to draw conclusions from the numbers, right at the beginning.

Right, that's what I said - they said the award is silly. Their evaluation is horrible and if your defense for the site is that they prefaced their own analytical article by saying not to take any of it serious, then really doesn't that just prove the point? If they think the conclusion from their evaluation is unreliable then they shouldn't be posting that garbage to begin with.

IndyRealist
06-12-2016, 12:21 PM
Right, that's what I said - they said the award is silly. Their evaluation is horrible and if your defense for the site is that they prefaced their own analytical article by saying not to take any of it serious, then really doesn't that just prove the point? If they think the conclusion from their evaluation is unreliable then they shouldn't be posting that garbage to begin with.

Aren't we doing the exact same thing here by arguing about 4 game sample sizes? We're arguing what happened in one or two games is representative of a player's entire career. That's what fans do.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 12:43 PM
Aren't we doing the exact same thing here by arguing about 4 game sample sizes? We're arguing what happened in one or two games is representative of a player's entire career. That's what fans do.

The NBA Finals is extremely important, as is any championship game/series. The entire point of sports is to win championships and the players who perform best on that stage are lifted up as a result.

What they're doing as journalists is posting an article that states that Shaun Livingston and Tristan Thompson are their teams MVPs thus far. That's just wrong, maybe even as far as being wrong on an ethical level lol. That's a joke, of course, but it's serious kaka.

D-Leethal
06-12-2016, 01:08 PM
The NBA Finals is extremely important, as is any championship game/series. The entire point of sports is to win championships and the players who perform best on that stage are lifted up as a result.

What they're doing as journalists is posting an article that states that Shaun Livingston and Tristan Thompson are their teams MVPs thus far. That's just wrong, maybe even as far as being wrong on an ethical level lol. That's a joke, of course, but it's serious kaka.

I'm with you. They are on ESPN.com and are pushing a movement and thinking shift, they should be more responsible in doing so than posting something like this. People are already forming skewed opinions in the name of analytics and in too many instances unable to weed out the BS, this is just going to push that further.

Scoots
06-12-2016, 01:59 PM
Might as well argue the journalistic integrity of click-bait. I spent a few years in the news industry and EVERY news source is trying to come up with an angle on a story that will make people read it and talk about it. If you don't like the angle a story takes don't read it and don't talk about it.

IndyRealist
06-12-2016, 02:00 PM
The NBA Finals is extremely important, as is any championship game/series. The entire point of sports is to win championships and the players who perform best on that stage are lifted up as a result.

What they're doing as journalists is posting an article that states that Shaun Livingston and Tristan Thompson are their teams MVPs thus far. That's just wrong, maybe even as far as being wrong on an ethical level lol. That's a joke, of course, but it's serious kaka.
So long as we're clear that you're condemning them for doing the exact same thing you're doing.

More-Than-Most
06-12-2016, 07:39 PM
Tristan Thompson > LeBron James in the Finals. Cavs offensive rating with Thompson on in the Finals is 136, LeBron's is just 104. Thompson's Orating/Drating differential is +19, LeBron's is -3. Thompson = Cavs MVP.

TT has 100 percent been the most important to the cavs because of his defense... lebron would be next.... kyrie has been ****ing horrid at defense but people only care about pts ala kyrie/curry

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 08:05 PM
I'm with you. They are on ESPN.com and are pushing a movement and thinking shift, they should be more responsible in doing so than posting something like this. People are already forming skewed opinions in the name of analytics and in too many instances unable to weed out the BS, this is just going to push that further.

It's that NY sense, ya know what I'm talking about? lol

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 08:08 PM
Might as well argue the journalistic integrity of click-bait. I spent a few years in the news industry and EVERY news source is trying to come up with an angle on a story that will make people read it and talk about it. If you don't like the angle a story takes don't read it and don't talk about it.

You're right, they just actually got me with this click-bait. :(

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 08:13 PM
So long as we're clear that you're condemning them for doing the exact same thing you're doing.

I'm not sure what you mean, but if you ever see any of my posts on ESPN.com as a contributor piece please let me know. If so I'll have to have my people call their people and get my money.

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 08:14 PM
TT has 100 percent been the most important to the cavs because of his defense... lebron would be next.... kyrie has been ****ing horrid at defense but people only care about pts ala kyrie/curry

Are... are you feeling OK?

More-Than-Most
06-12-2016, 08:29 PM
Are... are you feeling OK?

:laugh:

This response is hilarious... I cant even be mad :love:

FOXHOUND
06-12-2016, 08:36 PM
:laugh:

This response is hilarious... I cant even be mad :love:

:laugh2: