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View Full Version : New Draft rules and how the NBA is encouraging teams to tank.



Scoots
03-24-2016, 05:57 PM
With the new rules that players can declare for the draft 3 times and can withdraw late what might change from the NBA perspective:

Teams are going to spend more time evaluating players or spend less time per player because the number of players declaring younger will skyrocket. Players who go back to school will need less research when they next declare, but not a lot less. Teams still have to do their due dilligence.

Players who feel they should be lottery picks are going to get more time to evaluate their eventual draft position and more chances to go back, learn more, and come back out and go higher in the draft. The teams that make the playoffs have historically drafted those players and developed them. More of those players are now going to go back to school to get drafted by lottery teams in a later year.

Strong drafts will have more players dropping out, which will hopefully make weak drafts better.

All of this is true for international players too.

Teams just missing the playoffs and not on an upward trend (or maybe teams that just make them) will now have even more reason to tank if the talent in the draft falls off faster and bigger after the lottery, and tanking in the middle of the draft is a much more sure payoff in that only the first 3 picks are chosen by lottery so if you tank to move a couple spots up the draft you are almost guaranteed to move up a couple spots in the draft.

In the end it's good for the NCAA and for the individual players because by getting drafted higher they will make up their money fairly quickly.

Discuss.

Scoots
03-31-2016, 10:42 AM
Nobody has an opinion on the changes?

Cal has had all of the eligible players at Kentucky put their names in the draft pool. Every one of them.

Vinylman
03-31-2016, 10:50 AM
other than being able to go back to college what has really changed?

I also can see this as a horrible mistake for some players.

Lets say a guy declares for the draft... his evaluations go well... a team alludes that they will take him late in the first round (guaranteed money). Something happens with the team (they get another player they weren't planning on or make a trade or just change their mind)... the player then gets drafted mid-second round (no guaranteed money) ... doesn't make the team... has to play in the D League for $30k a year...

Is the player better off?

Scoots
03-31-2016, 11:52 AM
At least now they can get a better idea of where they will be drafted ... no guarantees.

Tony_Starks
03-31-2016, 12:18 PM
I really don't see this having to do with tanking. For those that draft well like Spurs, Warriors, Miami, OKC...doesn't matter where they draft. They'll get talent.

For those who have their program headed in the right direction like Utah, nothing changes. Keep trying to be competitive, if you miss the playoffs so be it, get the best talent available while your core continues to improve.

For those that are throwing seasons until the next Lebron falls in their lap, how much harder can they tank? Try to lose 75 instead of 70 games?

Scoots
03-31-2016, 01:00 PM
I really don't see this having to do with tanking. For those that draft well like Spurs, Warriors, Miami, OKC...doesn't matter where they draft. They'll get talent.

For those who have their program headed in the right direction like Utah, nothing changes. Keep trying to be competitive, if you miss the playoffs so be it, get the best talent available while your core continues to improve.

For those that are throwing seasons until the next Lebron falls in their lap, how much harder can they tank? Try to lose 75 instead of 70 games?

Winning will ALWAYS follow teams that are well run. It's just that now where a player who would in the past stay in the draft in the bottom of the 1st round those players are more likely to go back to school which means that if you are in the middle of the draft the talent drop will maybe be even greater than in the past.

warfelg
03-31-2016, 01:11 PM
Winning will ALWAYS follow teams that are well run. It's just that now where a player who would in the past stay in the draft in the bottom of the 1st round those players are more likely to go back to school which means that if you are in the middle of the draft the talent drop will maybe be even greater than in the past.

Agreed about where this effects. It's not the top of the first round or tanking teams. If you are a top 5-10 pick you likely are coming no matter what. But a guy in the 22-32 range? I bet more of them stay and try to sneak into the lotto the next year. I see more draft and stash guys ending up in the bottom of the 1st.

Scoots
03-31-2016, 03:25 PM
Agreed about where this effects. It's not the top of the first round or tanking teams. If you are a top 5-10 pick you likely are coming no matter what. But a guy in the 22-32 range? I bet more of them stay and try to sneak into the lotto the next year. I see more draft and stash guys ending up in the bottom of the 1st.

Thanks, that's what I was trying to say ... and extending that to say that a team in the middle will have more incentive to head toward the bottom a little just because the drop from the top third to the middle third may well be more severe than it used to be.

If you add this to the possibility that the NCAA may have to reform their financial situation with players it would mean even fewer players coming out for the draft.

I suppose it would stabilize over time, but the best teams who do the best job evaluating talent and developing talent will have their advantages whittled down some which, I suppose, is a net positive for the NBA and NCAA ball if parity is your thing.

BallDontLie
03-31-2016, 03:58 PM
i see no impact at all. its good players have a longer period incase they want to change their mind for any number of reasons.

IndyRealist
03-31-2016, 04:11 PM
Agreed about where this effects. It's not the top of the first round or tanking teams. If you are a top 5-10 pick you likely are coming no matter what. But a guy in the 22-32 range? I bet more of them stay and try to sneak into the lotto the next year. I see more draft and stash guys ending up in the bottom of the 1st.

Yes you can go back and try to improve your stock, but that also means you're a year older. For a freshman that's not a big deal, but for a sophomore or junior, you risk getting labeled "limited upside".

Scoots
03-31-2016, 04:31 PM
i see no impact at all. its good players have a longer period incase they want to change their mind for any number of reasons.

It's a positive for the players in that it lets them go back to school ... but it also means less raw talent in the draft.

Tony_Starks
03-31-2016, 04:31 PM
They need to just scrap this 1 and done mess and go back to letting players from high school declare. If they got game they got game.

The rule was put in place under the guise of college developing more nba ready players ( which was a total hoax, it was because colleges were missing out on money on the Kobes and Lebrons).

But in actuality it's made the draft class AND the college programs weaker. The colleges are getting guys that are only serving their year because they have to so they're basically rent a players. Won't buy into the program, won't go full bore for fear of getting hurt.

Scoots
03-31-2016, 05:03 PM
They need to just scrap this 1 and done mess and go back to letting players from high school declare. If they got game they got game.

The rule was put in place under the guise of college developing more nba ready players ( which was a total hoax, it was because colleges were missing out on money on the Kobes and Lebrons).

But in actuality it's made the draft class AND the college programs weaker. The colleges are getting guys that are only serving their year because they have to so they're basically rent a players. Won't buy into the program, won't go full bore for fear of getting hurt.

The year out of high school rule was not based on a hoax. The NBA said they wanted to have more data to evaluate players they were going to give huge contracts to. The players association got concessions to give that up.

Current players have a way around it if they want ... Mudiay didn't go to college, neither did Brandon Jennings.

Hawkeye15
03-31-2016, 05:55 PM
other than being able to go back to college what has really changed?

I also can see this as a horrible mistake for some players.

Lets say a guy declares for the draft... his evaluations go well... a team alludes that they will take him late in the first round (guaranteed money). Something happens with the team (they get another player they weren't planning on or make a trade or just change their mind)... the player then gets drafted mid-second round (no guaranteed money) ... doesn't make the team... has to play in the D League for $30k a year...

Is the player better off?

that happens anyways..

BallDontLie
04-01-2016, 09:10 AM
It's a positive for the players in that it lets them go back to school ... but it also means less raw talent in the draft.

not necessarily. its mostly going to impact the end of the first round where guys want to make sure the can get the guaranteed deal or not. this wont stop the best talents from declaring, the players the teams tank for.

Scoots
04-01-2016, 10:01 AM
not necessarily. its mostly going to impact the end of the first round where guys want to make sure the can get the guaranteed deal or not. this wont stop the best talents from declaring, the players the teams tank for.
The warriors tanked to get the 7th pick a few years ago. It's the teams in the middle who might tank to get a top 10 pick because the fall off in talent will be more sharp than before. It means the middle down will have more older players teams have not valued as much in the past.

BallDontLie
04-01-2016, 10:10 AM
7 is a pretty good pick and they tanked bcuz they knew they werent making the playoffs. its not like they dropped from 13-14 to 7.

Scoots
04-01-2016, 11:59 AM
7 is a pretty good pick and they tanked bcuz they knew they werent making the playoffs. its not like they dropped from 13-14 to 7.

Actually, in that shortened season they won 5 games in their last 26 and they were just a few games under .500 when they went in the tank. And even with all that hard tanking work they finished in a tie for 7th and had to win a coin flip to keep their pick (protected 1-7).

But the point was that teams who were fringe playoff teams might be more likely to tank down those 5-7 spots to get into the more elite talent now that those more raw unpolished athletes who tend to make up the middle of the round are more likely to go back to school and be replaced in the draft by more polished lesser athletes who are maybe saddled with a lower ceiling.