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View Full Version : Should coaches be forcing bigs to shoot 3's?



JasonJohnHorn
03-10-2016, 09:21 AM
I ask this question because I noticed last night that Anthony Davis shot 7 3ptrs and only hit 2.

Before the season, Gentry said he was going to turn Davis into a 3-point shooter. But this seems forced.


I realize guys like DMC are expanding their game and taking more 3's, but DMC's 2pt shots weren't terribly efficient, so it kinda makes sense.


Other players are not inclined to that, nor do they need to be. Tim Duncan, for example, in his prime, was able to score over 60% of the time with only 1 person covering him, so teams needed to double team him. That opened things up for teammates, and for shooters. Bringing your big out to the 3-pt line could crowd things up.

In AD's case, last season he scored 24.4 points a game on 176 six shots. This year he's scoring 24.3 (a negligible difference), but the issue is that he's taking 18.6 shots a game. He requires 1 more shot to score the same amount of points, and the fact that two of those shots each game are 3's, it suggests that this may not be the best approach for a player like Davis.



Shouldn't coaches who have good 3-pt shooters be using them to shoot 3's instead of taking their big's out of their effective zones? Isn't a guy like Davis more valuable drawing defenders into the paint and passing out, than stepping out to the arc himself?


I know everybody is crazy for the 3 these days, but having a solid post player that commands a double team and can't or doesn't shoot 3's can help a team's 3' points game more than having that guy step out to the arc.


Thoughts?

IndyRealist
03-10-2016, 11:15 AM
This is the issue with fitting players to a system instead of fitting the a system to the players. He should be much closer to the rim than he is in general.

There is a certain method to this though, in that a bad 3 is still better than a good long 2. Davis is 32.3% from 3 this year, or 0.97ppp (or 97 off rating if you prefer). From 16-23ft he is 43.6%, or 0.872ppp, 87 off rating. Having him take 3s is better than having him take long 2s, when your system calls for him to be on the perimeter for spacing. And long 2s make up 24% of his shots, so....

(All #s from BBR)

JasonJohnHorn
03-10-2016, 12:46 PM
This is the issue with fitting players to a system instead of fitting the a system to the players. He should be much closer to the rim than he is in general.

There is a certain method to this though, in that a bad 3 is still better than a good long 2. Davis is 32.3% from 3 this year, or 0.97ppp (or 97 off rating if you prefer). From 16-23ft he is 43.6%, or 0.872ppp, 87 off rating. Having him take 3s is better than having him take long 2s, when your system calls for him to be on the perimeter for spacing. And long 2s make up 24% of his shots, so....

(All #s from BBR)


Yeah... if you are going to push a guy out, don't push him to a foot inside the arc; push him beyond it. But if he isn't hitting either as effectively as a 0-12 feet out (depending on the percentages), then it's not a good idea to have him out there at all. And if you have guys on the floor shooting 38% or more, there's no need to be giving those shots to the guy who shoots 32%, unless the defense has broken down and he's the only one with an open shot.

KnicksorBust
03-10-2016, 12:51 PM
Yeah... if you are going to push a guy out, don't push him to a foot inside the arc; push him beyond it. But if he isn't hitting either as effectively as a 0-12 feet out (depending on the percentages), then it's not a good idea to have him out there at all. And if you have guys on the floor shooting 38% or more, there's no need to be giving those shots to the guy who shoots 32%, unless the defense has broken down and he's the only one with an open shot.

10/30 from 3pt is just as good as 15/30 from 2pt... plus it opens up the lane for the guards to penetrate. Plus with zone defenses these days getting traditional 1 v 1 post-ups are a lot harder to create.

KnicksorBust
03-10-2016, 12:52 PM
I love that Karl Anthony Towns used to shoot 3's in high school, went to college and didn't shoot 3's, and now shoots 3's again in the NBA.

Scoots
03-10-2016, 02:42 PM
Luke Walton supposedly pushed Curry to shoot twice as many 3s as he was comfortable taking. The point guard in Curry wanted to get teammates involved and he still thought of 3s as taking an opportunity from a teammate for a close shot.

So, I guess if you are hitting 33% you should take 3-4 a game these days. If you are hitting 45% you should take 10.

All of the weird back screens and small/big pick and rolls where the small is setting the pick and rolling away from the basket while the big drifts outside the other way. All of that sort of needs a big who can do something with the ball while at the 3 point line.

ewing
03-10-2016, 02:52 PM
sometimes. Davis does have the ability to have a mid range game as well and i think people forget that you have space the whole floor. if no one get a shot at the rim or from 10-18 you are easier to defend overall. I remember Spro saying that Tyson Chandler gave the knicks vertical spacing with pick and roll ally ops and people worrying about it opened the 3 point line. I also remember last year when the Warrior inserted David Lee his ability to pass and scorer on the interior opened up the perimeter for them one game. Basically, i think the question paints its strokes too board. also i haven't watch enough Pelicans games to have an idea of their offensive needs

IndyRealist
03-10-2016, 03:38 PM
sometimes. Davis does have the ability to have a mid range game as well and i think people forget that you have space the whole floor. if no one get a shot at the rim or from 10-18 you are easier to defend overall. I remember Spro saying that Tyson Chandler gave the knicks vertical spacing with pick and roll ally ops and people worrying about it opened the 3 point line. I also remember last year when the Warrior inserted David Lee his ability to pass and scorer on the interior opened up the perimeter for them one game. Basically, i think the question paints its strokes too board. also i haven't watch enough Pelicans games to have an idea of their offensive needs

I don't think anyone's saying you shouldn't get shots at rim, where the ppp exceeds even good 3pt shooters. And plenty of plays you go to the rim only to get turned back, and with no outlet pass end up with a 16fter as your best shot. But running plays specifically to get long 2s, and moving players into long 2 territory in general when they would either be at rim or behind the arc otherwise, should probably go the way of the dodo.

ewing
03-10-2016, 04:59 PM
I don't think anyone's saying you shouldn't get shots at rim, where the ppp exceeds even good 3pt shooters. And plenty of plays you go to the rim only to get turned back, and with no outlet pass end up with a 16fter as your best shot. But running plays specifically to get long 2s, and moving players into long 2 territory in general when they would either be at rim or behind the arc otherwise, should probably go the way of the dodo.

so more points on less shots, right? I think I got it

JasonJohnHorn
03-11-2016, 11:32 AM
10/30 from 3pt is just as good as 15/30 from 2pt... plus it opens up the lane for the guards to penetrate. Plus with zone defenses these days getting traditional 1 v 1 post-ups are a lot harder to create.

Yes, but when you have guys who shoot 12/30 or 13/30 from downtown, you are taking shots away from them and giving them to somebody who is less efficient.

I agree that it opens the lane, but you can have a guy step out 15 feet and open the lane.

But your point stands. I just feel like this is being forced, and there are more efficient options. I mean, Pop's always used the three and he's never felt the need to push Duncan out that far. Their results speak for themselves. I feel like this is just a coach following a trend, not creating an offense that suits his players.

KnicksorBust
03-11-2016, 12:48 PM
Yes, but when you have guys who shoot 12/30 or 13/30 from downtown, you are taking shots away from them and giving them to somebody who is less efficient.

I agree that it opens the lane, but you can have a guy step out 15 feet and open the lane.

But your point stands. I just feel like this is being forced, and there are more efficient options. I mean, Pop's always used the three and he's never felt the need to push Duncan out that far. Their results speak for themselves. I feel like this is just a coach following a trend, not creating an offense that suits his players.

Well I think that's the interesting thing about the modern game. It seems like you can only afford to have one big like Duncan and the other forward needs be able to stretch the floor. That's why the Spurs used Matt Bonner for so long and transitioned into Boris Diaw before getting their next long-term starter LMA. A quick glance at espn's nba depth charts shows me only a handful of teams without a shooting big on the starting lineup.

Lakers (nance/hibbert)
Sixers (noel/okafor)
Suns (len/chandler)
Jazz (favors/gobert)

An imperfect example for sure but it is interesting that all of those teams are near the bottom of the standings as well.

FOXHOUND
03-11-2016, 01:16 PM
Last 16 games, Davis is averaging 27.8 PPG on a .521/.375/.710 shooting line while taking 2 3's a game. His 3 point shot is improving throughout the season and he's starting to reap the benefits. There's no issue with him taking two 3's a game in place of long twos. If he was taking 7 3's every game at 32%, that would be more of an issue.

Gametime
03-11-2016, 01:24 PM
If they were still named the Hornets and had the old jerseys from the early 90's they would be a 60 win team.

Scoots
03-11-2016, 01:42 PM
The best teams non-shooting big, it's more important that they be good defenders, able to move the ball, and set solid picks than be able to score.

Duncan's scoring isn't really important to the Spurs anymore, but his intelligence and understanding and ability to facilitate the offense and defense is.

It will be interesting to see what happens when a team can have 2 old-style bigs on the floor AND be able to play 5 out.

IBleedPurple
03-11-2016, 03:02 PM
Shouldn't be forcing them to...they should already be able to hit 3's from a young age and develop it. That boils down to youth basketball.

KnicksorBust
03-11-2016, 03:28 PM
The best teams non-shooting big, it's more important that they be good defenders, able to move the ball, and set solid picks than be able to score.

Duncan's scoring isn't really important to the Spurs anymore, but his intelligence and understanding and ability to facilitate the offense and defense is.

It will be interesting to see what happens when a team can have 2 old-style bigs on the floor AND be able to play 5 out.

What team you think is the closest? Hawks?

Chronz
03-11-2016, 06:25 PM
The injuries have really muddied the picture. Big picture wise, its prolly best for his development even if it reduces his effectiveness in the interim but at the same time, you dont want to take away his activity closer to the hoop. I get the math but sometimes you need to take those long 2's if they set up the rest of your game.


That said, the only thing I know about him is that hes more dependent on guard play than most star bigs.

flea
03-12-2016, 02:40 AM
He sucks in the post, and that is where he'd be best served if he wants to win. But it's hard, tiring, taxing on your body, and he likes to shoot. Whatever, the team can still win if he's KG instead of Tim Duncan. But he could be unstoppable if he was any sort of low post threat. He could end up as another Cousins - crappy defender and solid offensive stat padder who requires teammates as good or better than him to win anything of note. It'll be a shame if that's what he settles for.

Scoots
03-12-2016, 03:18 AM
What team you think is the closest? Hawks?

The Knicks are the first team I think of with Zing at 5, but Carmelo is a little small/soft for the old-style 4.

I love Horford, but he seems to me to be more one of those guys forcing the 3, and he's always struck me as more of a 4. And Millsap is a little small to be called an old-style big 4 and his 3pt shooting is below the Mendoza line of .333 this year.