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Tony_Starks
03-01-2016, 03:36 PM
What is really clutch has always been debatable but this particular stat is on tying or go ahead shots within 5 seconds or less in the 4th or OT the past 10 seasons.

Steph has only been in the game 7 seasons but in those situations he is 6 for 19.


Interesting. My only problem with the list: how in the HELL has Raymond Felton got to attempt 27 game winners!?




FGM FGA FG%

Rudy Gay 17 38 44.7%

Dirk Nowitzki 13 38 34.2%

Joe Johnson 11 39 28.2%

Vince Carter 9 32 28.1%

Damian Lillard 7 25 28.0%

Kobe Bryant. 13 48 27.1%

Deron Williams. 10 37 27.0%

Monta Ellis 9 34 26.5%

Raymond Felton 7 27 25.9%

Kevin Durant 12 50 24.0%

Kemba Walker 7 30 23.3%

Carmelo Anthony 9 42 21.4%

Chris Paul. 8 38 21.1%

Dyane Wade 9 47 19.1%

Russell Westbrook5 29 17.2%

Derrick Rose 5 30 16.7%

Paul Pierce 6 37 16.2%

Andre Iguodala 5 37 13.5%

Brandon Jenning.3 27 11.1%

LeBron James 5 47 10.6%

Jamal Crawford 3 30 10.0%


Total 173 762 22.7%



http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post/_/id/4396/clutch-shots-are-tough-just-ask-lebron-james

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 03:42 PM
damn, give the ball to Rudy Gay and get out of the way haha

KnicksorBust
03-01-2016, 03:45 PM
"NO ITS RUDY GAY! NOOO!! NOT THIS GUY!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHuKES9QKDE

Tony_Starks
03-01-2016, 03:50 PM
Lol I do seem to remember Rudy going on a little roll where he hit a few go ahead buckets. He's got the length to get the shot off.

Jamal Crawford tho......:(

HandsOnTheWheel
03-01-2016, 03:51 PM
Another bashing Lebron thread :laugh2:

kdspurman
03-01-2016, 04:00 PM
"NO ITS RUDY GAY! NOOO!! NOT THIS GUY!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHuKES9QKDE

this is one of the greatest videos ever lol. i remember seeing it a couple years back. always fun to watch

valade16
03-01-2016, 04:13 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mejFtEY5faU

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 04:25 PM
Another bashing Lebron thread :laugh2:

as someone who is very into stats, I couldn't sit here and ignore the fact that LeBron has missed a ton of shots in these situations. Dude doesn't hit game winners, or tie games with the clock all the way down well, no way around it..

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 04:26 PM
"NO ITS RUDY GAY! NOOO!! NOT THIS GUY!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHuKES9QKDE

funniest **** ever. The kid just loses it haha

kdspurman
03-01-2016, 04:28 PM
as someone who is very into stats, I couldn't sit here and ignore the fact that LeBron has missed a ton of shots in these situations. Dude doesn't hit game winners, or tie games with the clock all the way down well, no way around it..

He's never really been a great shooter or even consistent at times. He takes fall aways, or leaning to the side type of shots far too often. I've never gotten why he didn't drive to the basket (time permitting) more often. If nothing else it leads to a foul, a layup/dunk, or kicking out to a better shooter.

He seems to settle a lot in those situations IMO.

Tony_Starks
03-01-2016, 04:29 PM
Another bashing Lebron thread :laugh2:


OR another Rudy Gay praise thread....

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 04:36 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mejFtEY5faU

you love pointing that shot out haha

I remember thinking, "what are you doing Parsons"

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 04:37 PM
He's never really been a great shooter or even consistent at times. He takes fall aways, or leaning to the side type of shots far too often. I've never gotten why he didn't drive to the basket (time permitting) more often. If nothing else it leads to a foul, a layup/dunk, or kicking out to a better shooter.

He seems to settle a lot in those situations IMO.

he does settle. I don't get why he doesn't just attack rim either. And when he does shoot, he always makes a difficult shot even more difficult for some odd reason.

IndyRealist
03-01-2016, 04:38 PM
as someone who is very into stats, I couldn't sit here and ignore the fact that LeBron has missed a ton of shots in these situations. Dude doesn't hit game winners, or tie games with the clock all the way down well, no way around it..

Someone posted "double clutch" stats and Lebron looked pretty good in that, to be fair.

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 04:43 PM
Someone posted "double clutch" stats and Lebron looked pretty good in that, to be fair.

what is "double clutch stats"?

Slug3
03-01-2016, 04:46 PM
as someone who is very into stats, I couldn't sit here and ignore the fact that LeBron has missed a ton of shots in these situations. Dude doesn't hit game winners, or tie games with the clock all the way down well, no way around it..

I wonder what the stats would look like if we pushed the time out. So instead of 5 seconds left what about with like 20/30 seconds or something like that?

These look like they are game winner shots, wonder if they are all shots from the team behind or if its a mixed from behind and tied games as well. So much to look over, lol.

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 04:49 PM
I wonder what the stats would look like if we pushed the time out. So instead of 5 seconds left what about with like 20/30 seconds or something like that?

These look like they are game winner shots, wonder if they are all shots from the team behind or if its a mixed from behind and tied games as well. So much to look over, lol.

that is why "clutch" is a stupid term to begin with imo.

Scoots
03-01-2016, 04:58 PM
"NO ITS RUDY GAY! NOOO!! NOT THIS GUY!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHuKES9QKDE

Thank you! A blessing on you! May all your male children be well endowed!

Scoots
03-01-2016, 05:04 PM
Fun matrix to play with. Uses a different definition of clutch.

http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnPlayerSplit.php?season=2015&pos=ALL&team=ALL&po=0&frdt=2006-02-28&todt=2016-02-28&shot=both&dst=team

Chronz
03-01-2016, 05:11 PM
Wasn't Melo shooting 50% on these like4years ago

BKLYNpigeon
03-01-2016, 05:15 PM
Thats a kind of a dumb stat.

It doesn't factor in all the different in game situations.

did you take a 2 pointer or 3?

Were you double teamed?

its a shot 5 seconds or less, but what if the shot was under 1 second? your chances are slimmer.


too many variables...

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 05:45 PM
Wasn't Melo shooting 50% on these like4years ago

I think that was 2 possession game, under 24 seconds or something like that.

Again, the term clutch is used for so many different things, I don't even like defining it.

mngopher35
03-01-2016, 05:58 PM
I wonder what the stats would look like if we pushed the time out. So instead of 5 seconds left what about with like 20/30 seconds or something like that?

These look like they are game winner shots, wonder if they are all shots from the team behind or if its a mixed from behind and tied games as well. So much to look over, lol.

There are tons of way to look at data like this and it really changes based off each criteria. For example here is this same group of players (in order based on above) and how they shot for their career dating back to 01 (as far back as bball reference goes) in the playoffs in these exact same circumstances:

Rudy Gay 0/2 0%
Dirk 1/6 17%
Joe Johnson 1/1 100%
Vince Carter 2/3 67%
Lillard 1/3 33%
Kobe 3/14 21%
Deron Williams 3/11 27%
Monta Ellis 0/2 0%
Felton no shots taken
Durant 1/7 14%
Carmelo 1/6 17%
Cp3 2/4 50%
Wade 2/5 40%
Westbrook 1/7 14%
Rose 1/4 25%
Pierce 3/14 21%
Iguodala 1/3 33%
Jennings none
Lebron 5/14 36%
Crawford none

While obviously the samples get even smaller than they already were, just looking at everyone who took 5 plus we see that the list would be far different if we isolated to just playoffs. That is why these things always need to be taken in context since if you try hard enough you can kind of keep trying different criteria to get an outcome you like.

If as you said we pushed it out to say the final shot clock (24 seconds) to tie or take the lead in rs or playoffs here are what some of the bigger names look like for their careers dating back to 01 (as far back as bball reference goes):

Dirk 37/100 37%
Kobe 53/183 29%
Durant 37/113 33%
Carmelo 33/96 34%
CP3 22/65 34%
Wade 23/93 25%
Westbrook 10/57 18%
Paul Pierce 31/127 24%
Lebron 40/129 31%

So again this would give us different rankings than the initial post and the one based off their playoffs in the final 5 seconds. So depending on how you set the criteria you can kind of change these topics pretty drastically. Can't come to conclusions on "clutch" based on any one of these lists alone. I kind of just think the entire term gets overrated by people.

IndyRealist
03-01-2016, 06:40 PM
what is "double clutch stats"?

Something like "clutch shots that alter the outcome of the game if made" or something like that. I'll find the post.

Hawkeye15
03-01-2016, 06:44 PM
Something like "clutch shots that alter the outcome of the game if made" or something like that. I'll find the post.

does a charge with 21 seconds to go count? How about a deflection? I know it says shots, I just find the term stupid personally.

IndyRealist
03-01-2016, 06:58 PM
does a charge with 21 seconds to go count? How about a deflection? I know it says shots, I just find the term stupid personally.
Don't look at me, Scoots posted it on page 2 in the Cavs thread. It's potential buzzer beaters according to the tool tip.
http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnPlayerSplit.php?season=2015&pos=ALL&team=CLE&po=0&frdt=2015-10-27&todt=2016-02-24&shot=both&dst=team

FraziersKnicks
03-01-2016, 07:23 PM
Something's not adding up with these numbers.

So according to Marc Stein, since 2006 LeBron has only hit 5 go ahead shots with 5 seconds or less remaining in the game. Yet ESPN stats tweeted on 11/29/15 that LeBron has 35 of these shots for his career.

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/670806159297789952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


LeBron James: 35 go-ahead FGs in final 5 sec of regulation/OT (reg season & postseason).
In last 20 seasons, only Kobe Bryant (45) has more.

Yes, I understand the difference's... The ESPN stat also includes his years from 2003-2005 (so the last 12 years) and the playoffs, but you can't tell me in his first two years and the playoffs he's hit 30 more of these shots?

Unless I'm missing something blatantly obvious, it looks like Stein has got his numbers massively wrong.

valade16
03-01-2016, 07:34 PM
you love pointing that shot out haha

I remember thinking, "what are you doing Parsons"

:laugh2: I do. As a Blazers fan it's one of like 4 good things that have happened in the last 30 years lol

Bostonjorge
03-01-2016, 07:58 PM
I was reading up on this last night. It's the final 5 sec with shots to tie or win the game.

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/lebron-james-cleveland-cavaliers-kobe-bryant-clutch-shooting-awful-airball-5-for-47-022916

Tony_Starks
03-01-2016, 08:05 PM
There are tons of way to look at data like this and it really changes based off each criteria. For example here is this same group of players (in order based on above) and how they shot for their career dating back to 01 (as far back as bball reference goes) in the playoffs in these exact same circumstances:

Rudy Gay 0/2 0%
Dirk 1/6 17%
Joe Johnson 1/1 100%
Vince Carter 2/3 67%
Lillard 1/3 33%
Kobe 3/14 21%
Deron Williams 3/11 27%
Monta Ellis 0/2 0%
Felton no shots taken
Durant 1/7 14%
Carmelo 1/6 17%
Cp3 2/4 50%
Wade 2/5 40%
Westbrook 1/7 14%
Rose 1/4 25%
Pierce 3/14 21%
Iguodala 1/3 33%
Jennings none
Lebron 5/14 36%
Crawford none

While obviously the samples get even smaller than they already were, just looking at everyone who took 5 plus we see that the list would be far different if we isolated to just playoffs. That is why these things always need to be taken in context since if you try hard enough you can kind of keep trying different criteria to get an outcome you like.

If as you said we pushed it out to say the final shot clock (24 seconds) to tie or take the lead in rs or playoffs here are what some of the bigger names look like for their careers dating back to 01 (as far back as bball reference goes):

Dirk 37/100 37%
Kobe 53/183 29%
Durant 37/113 33%
Carmelo 33/96 34%
CP3 22/65 34%
Wade 23/93 25%
Westbrook 10/57 18%
Paul Pierce 31/127 24%
Lebron 40/129 31%

So again this would give us different rankings than the initial post and the one based off their playoffs in the final 5 seconds. So depending on how you set the criteria you can kind of change these topics pretty drastically. Can't come to conclusions on "clutch" based on any one of these lists alone. I kind of just think the entire term gets overrated by people.



I find any list that cast Rudy Gay in such a unfavorable light highly suspicious....

Bostonjorge
03-01-2016, 08:22 PM
Kobe game winner in OT vs Suns

James walk off 3 vs Detriot

Ray Allen 3 vs Spurs

Fisher game winner against the Spurs

Big time clutch plays

Jeffy25
03-01-2016, 08:41 PM
Such a tiny sampling. But clearly the league as a whole doesn't make many of these.

CHANGO
03-01-2016, 08:45 PM
I did some research couple of days ago (using basketball-reference) and Lebron was 23% or 24% in "clutch" shots I don't remember which filters I used.

CHANGO
03-01-2016, 08:54 PM
Yeah, I searched on my history and this was the filter I used.


In all seasons, in the regular season and playoffs, in the 4th quarter or overtime, 0:05 or less left in quarter, scoring margin between -3 and -1 point, sorted by descending Field Goals.

Lebron is 9/39 on his career. That is 23%.
If we select the last 10 seasons (he didn't have a situation like that on last season). He is 9/38 for 24%.

I remember that I did this research with CP3, Dirk, Carmelo, Kobe, Durant, Westbrook and Curry.

If I remember correctly the average was like 28 or 29% with the best being Carmelo followed by Curry, the worst? If you guess it you'll be wrong.

Dirk, yep, that shocked me too.

More-Than-Most
03-01-2016, 09:45 PM
as someone who is very into stats, I couldn't sit here and ignore the fact that LeBron has missed a ton of shots in these situations. Dude doesn't hit game winners, or tie games with the clock all the way down well, no way around it..

and its his own stupidity kinda like Iggy as well... He has no outside shot but will sit back and let the clock run and take a 2 that is basically a 3 and brick it hard WHEN HE IS NOT A SHOOTER... Its so ****ing infuriating lol. Use your damn size and go to the rim.

More-Than-Most
03-01-2016, 09:49 PM
I was reading up on this last night. It's the final 5 sec with shots to tie or win the game.

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/lebron-james-cleveland-cavaliers-kobe-bryant-clutch-shooting-awful-airball-5-for-47-022916

lol nvm this is the dumbest micro managed stat of all time... This is basically hindering James and stroking shooters... Lebron is not a shooter... Grabbing the ball and shooting within 5 seconds is literally the worst case scenario for him and has 0 to do with clutch... I didnt realize when I posted my rant the post above

IndyRealist
03-01-2016, 09:53 PM
and its his own stupidity kinda like Iggy as well... He has no outside shot but will sit back and let the clock run and take a 2 that is basically a 3 and brick it hard WHEN HE IS NOT A SHOOTER... Its so ****ing infuriating lol. Use your damn size and go to the rim.

Paul George does the same thing. It's from growing up watching Jordan. They -think- that the best shot you can take at the buzzer is a long, contested, fadeaway 2pt jumper. Evidence to the contrary be damned.

tredigs
03-01-2016, 10:33 PM
"NO ITS RUDY GAY! NOOO!! NOT THIS GUY!!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHuKES9QKDE

Stole my post. My favorite NBA clip of all time and sums up this topic.

Jeffy25
03-01-2016, 10:42 PM
Paul George is shooting 41.3% on the season, and 37.3% from 3

That's nuts. He might as well only shoot 3's

George has 264 shots from 16 feet to 3's, 133 from 10-15.9 feet, 83 from 3-9.9 feet, with 175 shots at the rim.

He is shooting .409% from 16 feet inside the 3 point line. If he had stepped back for those 264 shots and shot his normal .373% (I realize that's pretending it's perfect set ups) he would have an additional 88 points this season (accounts for him missing 10 more) and be averaging 24.83 PPG and would have made 249 3's this year, chasing Curry down (but with not the efficiency of Curry of course).


I realize that the flow of the game wouldn't allow him to do that. But he is shooting so deep, why not just go about 5 feet further when possible (I realize that isn't a perfect solution)

IndyRealist
03-01-2016, 10:47 PM
Paul George is shooting 41.3% on the season, and 37.3% from 3

That's nuts. He might as well only shoot 3's

George has 264 shots from 16 feet to 3's, 133 from 10-15.9 feet, 83 from 3-9.9 feet, with 175 shots at the rim.

He is shooting .409% from 16 feet inside the 3 point line. If he had stepped back for those 264 shots and shot his normal .373% (I realize that's pretending it's perfect set ups) he would have an additional 88 points this season (accounts for him missing 10 more) and be averaging 24.83 PPG and would have made 249 3's this year, chasing Curry down (but with not the efficiency of Curry of course).


I realize that the flow of the game wouldn't allow him to do that. But he is shooting so deep, why not just go about 5 feet further when possible (I realize that isn't a perfect solution)

Sigh. Welcome to my pain. :mad:

Scoots
03-01-2016, 11:03 PM
Someone posted "double clutch" stats and Lebron looked pretty good in that, to be fair.
That was me. I posted again earlier in this thread. (on phone)

Scoots
03-01-2016, 11:04 PM
what is "double clutch stats"?
It has to do with shots that make the biggest difference in win probability.

JLynn943
03-01-2016, 11:14 PM
Just watching him play, the situation does not matter at all to Rudy. Definitely an "ice water in the veins" kind of guy. I thought Melo would be leading this because he was leading something like this before, but it's not crazy surprising Rudy would be up there (unless you underrate him).