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View Full Version : The TOP 200 Players though the 2016 ASG.



Lionel20
02-21-2016, 01:23 AM
*There are some players that may have a high enough win score to be included but failed to meet the MP cutoff
*All players are listed by my own version of Player Value converted into Wins
* Player Value is based on "Alternative Wins Shares" and "Value Over Replacement Player" formulas, however significantly changed to include more defensive metrics (Primarily SportsVU defensive tracking). ETC.

*Most importantly ALL players' Value stats are on an ALL-TIME scale, for instance enabling cross-era comparisons: How does Draymond Green's play so far compare with 1971 Elvin Hayes. In order to accomplish this, I needed a balanced era to serve as a level field of comparison - the 90s was selected. It may have been a bit favorable to Centers, but compared to other era's I believe their was more of a competitive balance from all positions. Today's game, for a variety of reasons, has neutralized the Center position, and the rules are more favorable for parameters players, making it almost impossible to reasonably compare these players to players from other era's without league average and league quality adjustments.

Well, I've made those reasonable adjustments. I thought I'd mentioned this so that viewers can read my work better. All of my player evals are from an all-time reference and perspective. I can break down all my formulas if requested, from my Usage Rate on down. Just think of it as reverse inflation, this is how Kevin Durant eg 2016 numbers look from within balanced context.

Top 200 players 2015 - 2016 ASG


Name Wins
LeBron James 10.98
Stephen Curry 9.31
Kevin Durant 9.20
James Harden 9.02
Russell Westbrook 8.37
Anthony Davis 7.93
Kawhi Leonard 7.65
Paul Millsap 7.49
Draymond Green 7.40
Jimmy Butler 7.14
DeAndre Jordan 7.01
Brook Lopez 6.98
Pau Gasol 6.86
Andre Drummond 6.84
Karl-Anthony Towns 6.80
Al Horford 6.62
Paul George 6.60
Greg Monroe 6.34
Kyle Lowry 6.27
DeMar DeRozan 6.23
Chris Paul 6.11
Carmelo Anthony 6.08
LaMarcus Aldridge 6.06
Nikola Vucevic 6.03
John Wall 5.91
DeMarcus Cousins 5.89
Isaiah Thomas 5.87
Chris Bosh 5.85
Dwyane Wade 5.77
Khris Middleton 5.65
Thaddeus Young 5.60
Kemba Walker 5.54
Hassan Whiteside 5.53
Marc Gasol 5.50
Klay Thompson 5.49
C.J. McCollum 5.42
Will Barton 5.39
Dwight Howard 5.35
Rajon Rondo 5.33
Marcin Gortat 5.11
Damian Lillard 5.04
Monta Ellis 4.99
Kristaps Porzingis 4.96
Tobias Harris 4.90
Jae Crowder 4.90
Lou Williams 4.89
Kevin Love 4.88
Nicolas Batum 4.86
Danilo Gallinari 4.85
Andrew Wiggins 4.84
Enes Kanter 4.83
Gordon Hayward 4.82
Avery Bradley 4.79
Zach Randolph 4.74
Derrick Favors 4.72
Giannis Antetokounmpo 4.67
Tristan Thompson 4.65
Ryan Anderson 4.62
Marvin Williams 4.59
J.J. Redick 4.58
Zaza Pachulia 4.54
Dirk Nowitzki 4.53
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope4.51
Kenneth Faried 4.42
Nikola Jokic 4.33
Ed Davis 4.33
Rudy Gay 4.32
Taj Gibson 4.31
Jared Sullinger 4.29
Serge Ibaka 4.29
Andre Iguodala 4.26
Victor Oladipo 4.26
Blake Griffin 4.20
Jordan Clarkson 4.19
Amir Johnson 4.15
Mike Conley 4.11
Rudy Gobert 4.08
Goran Dragic 4.05
Jeff Teague 4.04
Nerlens Noel 4.01
Ricky Rubio 3.99
Robin Lopez 3.98
Evan Turner 3.96
Jahlil Okafor 3.95
Mason Plumlee 3.93
Trevor Ariza 3.91
Aaron Gordon 3.88
Gorgui Dieng 3.84
Reggie Jackson 3.82
Marcus Morris 3.79
Clint Capela 3.78
Steven Adams 3.74
Rodney Hood 3.61
Jrue Holiday 3.58
Allen Crabbe 3.55
Jordan Hill 3.51
Courtney Lee 3.50
Tim Duncan 3.46
Ian Mahinmi 3.45
George Hill 3.43
Tony Parker 3.42
Chandler Parsons 3.40
Cody Zeller 3.38
Michael Carter-Williams3.37
Otto Porter 3.36
Kent Bazemore 3.34
Evan Fournier 3.32
Kelly Olynyk 3.31
Brandon Knight 3.30
Wesley Matthews 3.30
J.R. Smith 3.25
Jamal Crawford 3.24
Darren Collison 3.18
P.J. Tucker 3.18
Deron Williams 3.15
Jared Dudley 3.12
Al-Farouq Aminu 3.10
Thabo Sefolosha 3.08
Eric Bledsoe 3.07
Trevor Booker 3.05
Kyle Korver 3.01
Julius Randle 2.97
Kosta Koufos 2.96
Jerami Grant 2.96
Jabari Parker 2.95
Ersan Ilyasova 2.95
Raymond Felton 2.95
Jeff Green 2.89
Langston Galloway 2.89
Bismack Biyombo 2.87
Gary Harris 2.86
Matthew Dellavedova 2.85
Luol Deng 2.84
Eric Gordon 2.83
Boris Diaw 2.78
Tyson Chandler 2.75
Lavoy Allen 2.75
Cory Joseph 2.74
Omri Casspi 2.74
Joe Johnson 2.73
Ish Smith 2.73
T.J. Warren 2.71
Dion Waiters 2.68
Luis Scola 2.67
Danny Green 2.65
Shabazz Muhammad 2.61
Dennis Schroder 2.60
Arron Afflalo 2.59
Mario Chalmers 2.58
Nikola Mirotic 2.58
Jeremy Lin 2.56
Jose Calderon 2.56
Patrick Mills 2.56
Harrison Barnes 2.55
Derrick Rose 2.54
Patrick Patterson 2.52
Kobe Bryant 2.45
T.J. McConnell 2.45
Roy Hibbert 2.40
Elfrid Payton 2.38
Ramon Sessions 2.37
Zach LaVine 2.36
Matt Barnes 2.27
Jerryd Bayless 2.26
D'Angelo Russell 2.24
Frank Kaminsky 2.22
Terrence Ross 2.21
Anthony Tolliver 2.19
Tony Allen 2.17
Patrick Beverley 2.16
Marco Belinelli 2.14
Gerald Green 2.12
Trey Burke 2.12
C.J. Miles 2.06
Garrett Temple 2.05
Bojan Bogdanovic 2.03
Wesley Johnson 2.01
Jarrett Jack 1.99
Shane Larkin 1.97
Devin Booker 1.95
Robert Covington 1.93
Wayne Ellington 1.90
Meyers Leonard 1.89
Justise Winslow 1.84
Hollis Thompson 1.84
J.J. Barea 1.80
Alonzo Gee 1.73
Nik Stauskas 1.69
Lance Thomas 1.69
Corey Brewer 1.66
Isaiah Canaan 1.62
Ben McLemore 1.59
Randy Foye 1.51
Tayshaun Prince 1.45
Stanley Johnson 1.44
Ty Lawson 1.41
Doug McDermott 1.35
Dante Cunningham 1.34
Raul Neto 1.29
Jameer Nelson 1.27
Tony Snell 1.16
Emmanuel Mudiay 0.88


Here's how the mid-season awards shape from my meaures:

DPOY: LeBron James

All Defensive 1st Team

Hassan Whiteside
Draymond Green
LeBron James
Nicolas Batum
Stephen Curry

All Defensive 2nd Team

Andre Drummond
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Avery Bradley
Michael Carter-Williams

IKnowHoops
02-21-2016, 02:12 AM
I appreciate the effort, I like the list too. A different perspective is always interesting to see. I have no clue how your formula works, but based on the order of the players, I trust your equation has a good foundation.

ManningToTyree
02-21-2016, 04:13 AM
This looks a hell of a lot better then his nfl formula I'll give him that lol.

IBleedPurple
02-21-2016, 05:57 AM
Numbers nazi is back, new agenda. Cool.

WOwolfOL
02-21-2016, 08:04 AM
No wonder the Bulls want to re-sign Gasol despite the fact that he can't guard a limb-less paraplegic.

IndyRealist
02-21-2016, 10:52 AM
I appreciate the effort, I like the list too. A different perspective is always interesting to see. I have no clue how your formula works, but based on the order of the players, I trust your equation has a good foundation.

If the formula makes sense, you live with the results and maybe have to reconsider your views. You don't look at the results and say, "Well, this aligns with my preconceived notions on how things are, so it must be good." All you're doing is saying the formula matches perception, not reality. Hopefully we all know how flawed human perception and memory is.

Specifically about the results, I'm not sure how James Harden can only be 0.29 wins behind Stephen Curry when A) Curry's team has significantly more wins, and B) Curry is better than Harden in every statistical category but defensive rebounds and blocks.

Lionel20
02-21-2016, 12:52 PM
If the formula makes sense, you live with the results and maybe have to reconsider your views. You don't look at the results and say, "Well, this aligns with my preconceived notions on how things are, so it must be good." All you're doing is saying the formula matches perception, not reality. Hopefully we all know how flawed human perception and memory is.

Specifically about the results, I'm not sure how James Harden can only be 0.29 wins behind Stephen Curry when A) Curry's team has significantly more wins, and B) Curry is better than Harden in every statistical category but defensive rebounds and blocks.

The simplest way to put it.

It's easier to play PG now than it's been since the early 70s, Harden is a 2. To correct this on the All-time scale, I used "League Quality" position-based adjustments, based on some of the work done from this webpage = https://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/17/measuring-the-quality-of-basketball-in-the-nba/

Remember, my reference considers players/teams on an ALL-TIME scale. Example,

*For my "Top 200" list my MP min. = 1000 through AS break

SAN ANTONIO SPURS 2016 Roster BREAKDOWN


Name Wins
Kawhi Leonard 7.65
LaMarcus Aldridge 6.06
Tim Duncan 3.51
Tony Parker 3.42
Manu Ginobili 3.24
David West 3.11
Boris Diaw 2.78
Danny Green 2.65
Patrick Mills 2.51
Kyle Anderson 1.53
Boban Marjanovic 1.52
Jonathon Simmons 0.96
Rasual Butler 0.95
Ray McCallum 0.45
Matt Bonner 0.38

Total 41

Although the Spurs won 45 games through the AS break, on an all-time scale, they rank equivalent to a team winning 41 games. In short this is how my value system works.

IndyRealist
02-21-2016, 05:20 PM
The simplest way to put it.

It's easier to play PG now than it's been since the early 70s, Harden is a 2. To correct this on the All-time scale, I used "League Quality" position-based adjustments, based on some of the work done from this webpage = https://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/17/measuring-the-quality-of-basketball-in-the-nba/

Remember, my reference considers players/teams on an ALL-TIME scale. Example,

*For my "Top 200" list my MP min. = 1000 through AS break

SAN ANTONIO SPURS 2016 Roster BREAKDOWN


Name Wins
Kawhi Leonard 7.65
LaMarcus Aldridge 6.06
Tim Duncan 3.51
Tony Parker 3.42
Manu Ginobili 3.24
David West 3.11
Boris Diaw 2.78
Danny Green 2.65
Patrick Mills 2.51
Kyle Anderson 1.53
Boban Marjanovic 1.52
Jonathon Simmons 0.96
Rasual Butler 0.95
Ray McCallum 0.45
Matt Bonner 0.38

Total 41

Although the Spurs won 45 games through the AS break, on an all-time scale, they rank equivalent to a team winning 41 games. In short this is how my value system works.

I'm actually pretty familiar with Arturo's work. It's based on Wins Produced, and I'm not sure how your numbers correlate to Wins when you're basing your work on Win Shares and VORP. Those systems aren't correlated to real wins, so it seems you're applying an adjustment for apples on oranges. Obviously i haven't looked at what you've done, but there are real pitfalls trying to merge systems instead of starting from scratch.

mudvayne387
02-21-2016, 05:29 PM
No wonder the Bulls want to re-sign Gasol despite the fact that he can't guard a limb-less paraplegic.

Just out of curiosity, what difference would it make if the paraplegic had limbs or not ?

WOwolfOL
02-21-2016, 09:21 PM
Just out of curiosity, what difference would it make if the paraplegic had limbs or not ?
There's probably many paraplegics with arms who could still take him to the hole