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zef_captain
08-30-2015, 07:40 PM
In a matter of years, Chris paul will be on the list, how high will he go? Will anyone be able to catch John Stockton? I was also surprised that 2 big guys made the list.


http://youtu.be/bey_PTMpli4

dhopisthename
08-30-2015, 08:05 PM
let calculate what Chris Paul would need to catch Stockton assuming he A. keeps his current average of 2.3(unlikely due to the fact that most people slow down as they get older), and B. keep going till he gets the record. He currently sits at 1641 steals while Stockton sits at 3265. 3265-1641=1624 steals need to go 1624/2.3 spg=706 games needed to break the record. 706 games/70(an average number of games played) =10.1 years. so if paul can keep his average of 2.3 steals per game and play 10.1 more seasons till he is 40+ he can pass stockton on the all time steals list.


so he isn't likely to get it and he is really the only active guy that has a reasonable chance.

FlashBolt
08-30-2015, 08:19 PM
He collects about 150 steals per season so by that calculation, it will take him five years to be in the top five. He's halfway to reaching Stockton as it is so if you follow that logic, he will have to play another ten seasons (maybe more since he will be older and play less minutes, etc.) So he probably won't pass Stockton but if CP3 wanted, he can surely pass J.Kidd.

Gander13SM
08-31-2015, 02:03 AM
I think Kawhi Leonard will finish in the top 10-15 for steals (all time). I can't think of any active players off the top of my head that could do better.

Stocktons record is up there as one of the more difficult ones to break. The longevity required is staggering especially these days when a lot of guys rely so much on their athleticism.

FlashBolt
08-31-2015, 02:06 PM
I think Kawhi Leonard will finish in the top 10-15 for steals (all time). I can't think of any active players off the top of my head that could do better.

Stocktons record is up there as one of the more difficult ones to break. The longevity required is staggering especially these days when a lot of guys rely so much on their athleticism.

Plenty of players can do that.. top 10-15 isn't exactly difficult.

JAZZNC
08-31-2015, 02:10 PM
I would say there is a less than 0% chance that Stockton's record is ever broken. The sustained level of excellence it would take to reach that number is just basically impossible. It is amazing to think a player as good as Paul really has no chance.

Hawkeye15
08-31-2015, 03:35 PM
he missed 22 games over a 19 year career. Think of that. He doesn't show up until #17 in best steal percentage by year, but then has seasons littered all over the place for the top 50 all time.

He played a lot, never got hurt, and maintained a high enough steal rate. I won't say never, but that record will be a tough one to get to.

Gander13SM
09-01-2015, 02:47 AM
Plenty of players can do that.. top 10-15 isn't exactly difficult.

True. It's easy. That's why everyone does it... oh, wait.

The average career of an NBA player who has made at least one all star game is around 12 years. So in 12 years you need to get 1,862 steals to become the 15th best all time. That's a little over 155 every season for 12 years. Which is 1.89 steals per game average every season.

So you need to be averaging close to two steals per game for 12 years to have a chance as ending your career as 15th on the all time steals leaderboard.

Now I said 10th-15th. So on the better side of that let's assume you're aiming for 10th not 15th. That's 2086 steals you would need. Again, average career length for an NBA player who has made at least one all star game is 12 years. So that's 174 steals per season. 2.1 steals per game average every year.

So for 12 years you would need to average 2.1 steals per game.

But hey, let's say you come into the league real young, let's say 19. And you play until you're 39. You would only need 104 steals per season. So you would need to average 1.3 steals per game, every single year of your career.


Yes. You're right. Anyone can do it. Anyone can get over 1,860 steals in their career. Strange that only 15 people have though.

FlashBolt
09-02-2015, 01:40 AM
True. It's easy. That's why everyone does it... oh, wait.

The average career of an NBA player who has made at least one all star game is around 12 years. So in 12 years you need to get 1,862 steals to become the 15th best all time. That's a little over 155 every season for 12 years. Which is 1.89 steals per game average every season.

So you need to be averaging close to two steals per game for 12 years to have a chance as ending your career as 15th on the all time steals leaderboard.

Now I said 10th-15th. So on the better side of that let's assume you're aiming for 10th not 15th. That's 2086 steals you would need. Again, average career length for an NBA player who has made at least one all star game is 12 years. So that's 174 steals per season. 2.1 steals per game average every year.

So for 12 years you would need to average 2.1 steals per game.

But hey, let's say you come into the league real young, let's say 19. And you play until you're 39. You would only need 104 steals per season. So you would need to average 1.3 steals per game, every single year of your career.


Yes. You're right. Anyone can do it. Anyone can get over 1,860 steals in their career. Strange that only 15 people have though.

You said Kahwi and that's why I said plenty of players can do it if since, Kawhi is your example.

Monta Ellis can do it.
John Wall can.
CP3 is definitely getting it.
LeBron is definitely getting it.
Westbrook has a chance.
Curry has a chance.
Iguodala has a chance as well.

I can find more if you want.
So if you're using Kawhi as an example, why shouldn't the above have just as much of a chance? I said it isn't exactly difficult (of course it is, duh? it's top 10-15), but if you're using Kawhi as an example, then I can honestly name more players. And YES, I read that you said "could do better." But Kawhi wasn't very high on SPG until this past season. 1.7 is nothing to scoff at but that ranks 14th if you go by last season.

Gander13SM
09-02-2015, 04:59 AM
But do you honestly think any of those guys will do it? CP3 we agree on but the rest? Look at their steals right now and look at their age.

I don't see any of then getting there. The only other active player I see finishing in the top 10-15 is Kawhi.

I don't know why you think LeBron is getting it when he's in his 30s, is already declining defensively and isn't even in the top 30 all time yet.

FlashBolt
09-02-2015, 05:27 AM
But do you honestly think any of those guys will do it? CP3 we agree on but the rest? Look at their steals right now and look at their age.

I don't see any of then getting there. The only other active player I see finishing in the top 10-15 is Kawhi.

I don't know why you think LeBron is getting it when he's in his 30s, is already declining defensively and isn't even in the top 30 all time yet.

1) It doesn't matter what I think. If you think Kawhi can do it, then it's also plausible that these others can do it since their APG is right up there as well and some are already well beyond 7+ seasons.
2) CP3 is easily getting it. He's going to crack top five if he doesn't retire early.
3) I can see Monta getting it, too. 1200 steals, he's only 29. If he plays 6 more seasons, he can hit it no problem.
4) LeBron not getting it? A simple search tells you LeBron is at 1553 steals. You don't think he can grab 300 more steals or do you think he's retiring after next season? And IDK what you are talking about him not being in the top 30 yet... The difference from 36th to 30th is only 63. So him not being in the top 30 yet may sound like it's so far away but you have to look at the difference from those spots.

Gander13SM
09-02-2015, 06:49 AM
I completely disagree with everything you're saying. Clearly we're not going to agree. Let's revisit this discussion 10 years from now and see how much the top 15 has changed.

I mean anyone can get there so clearly we'll have a bunch of new players from 6th to 15th. Because it's that easy.

JasonJohnHorn
09-02-2015, 08:33 AM
Catch Stockton seems unlikely, but if one person could do it, I'd put my money on CP3.

The thing is, CP3 has already played 10 years and only has half of what Stockton had, so that means he'd have to play as well in the twilight of his career and play another 10 years to catch Stockton.

Now that said, I wouldn't be surprised of CP3 could play to 40 like Kidd, Nash, and Stockton, because while he statistically looks a like like Isiah thomas (who went down hill fast after the age of thirty because he relied on speed so much), CP3 is a very calculated playmaker and defender. But I still can't see him maintaining 2.3 steals per game. I see him being like Kidd, where he sticks around but plays reduced minutes. Maybe he maintains 2+ until he's 33? 34? And then drops to 1.5? Then he'd had to play to 42.

It looks like an untouchable record unless there is a shift in the way the game is played.

The more reasonable goal is passing Kidd. That is doable. He only needs 1100 for that. He gets 150 steals a year, he needs 8 seasons like that, or 10 seasons at a little lower. It would still be very hard. Barring injury, , he will certainly be top-five, and regardless of career totals be considered perhaps the best at that aspect of the game ever, but how high he gets depends on if he is the kind of guy that wants to play to 40, or the type that wants to leave while he is still on top of his game.

He's also going to be getting coaching offers when he gets older. Kidd could have played another year, but he got a 5 mil offer to coach, which is a LOT more than the vet min. So he may have a money question to consider.

JasonJohnHorn
09-02-2015, 08:53 AM
Plenty of players can do that.. top 10-15 isn't exactly difficult.

Top 10-15 is extremely difficult. With less possessions, and stricter foul calls, it is far harder to get a steal today than 25 years ago. You had guys averaging 3+ a game in the 80's and early 90's. That's not going to happened again without the league seeing drastic changes in the way the game is played.

None of the top-20 single assist seasons happened after 1995. That's twenty years in which no player has managed to top the single season leader of the guy that lead the league in assist in 95. The most recent single season leader ranked in the top 30 was in 2004, meaning nobody has managed that for over 10 years. Guys who finished second in steals-per game in the 80's have higher averages than we've seen in the past ten years. Those guys were second best. How is it going to be easy to get in the top 10-15 for guys playing today when the very best guys today would be lucky to finish third 25-30 years ago and they are competing with guys who played 15-20 years?

Two of the guys between 10-15 played about 20 seasons (Malone and Kobe). The others are Mookie Blaylock (one of the best defenders at the point guard position to ever play the game), Isiah, Iverson, and Harper. And Harper played until he was 37. Thomas will likely be knocked out by Garnett next season, but then we'll have another 20-season vet in that list.

To get into that list, you need a special player, who plays at an elite level, and maintains it for at least 15 years.

If that 'isn't exactly difficult', then we have a different definition of what difficult is. Yes, there will be guys knocked out of that list, but they will only be knocked out by very special players like Chris Paul. Mike James isn't going to be coming out of retirement to rise up to 12th all time. It's not easy. It is VERY difficult.

LBJ likely will, but he's a multiple time MVP and champion.

I mean, if it was easy, then Andre Miller, who has been a solid point guard and decent defender for most of his career, and is now 38 years old and still active, would be near the list, but he's 37 all time.

Iggy is an elite defender in the league, and he's 11 years into his career (longer than most careers) and he isn't even in the top 50.

JasonJohnHorn
09-02-2015, 09:03 AM
You said Kahwi and that's why I said plenty of players can do it if since, Kawhi is your example.

Monta Ellis can do it.
John Wall can.
CP3 is definitely getting it.
LeBron is definitely getting it.
Westbrook has a chance.
Curry has a chance.
Iguodala has a chance as well.

I can find more if you want.
So if you're using Kawhi as an example, why shouldn't the above have just as much of a chance? I said it isn't exactly difficult (of course it is, duh? it's top 10-15), but if you're using Kawhi as an example, then I can honestly name more players. And YES, I read that you said "could do better." But Kawhi wasn't very high on SPG until this past season. 1.7 is nothing to scoff at but that ranks 14th if you go by last season.

Monta Ellis can do it? He's 87th on the lsit right now. He needs 500 to crack that list, assuming nobody else enters it before him (which WILL happen). John Wall hasn't even posted a 150 season for steals yet. Iggy is eleven years in and he's not even top 50 yet.

CP3, LBJ, Westbrook and Curry, sure... they could make it in, but you said "not difficult' and the players you've listed are elite. Two MVP's, and two MVP candidates; all multiple All-Star and All-NBA appearances. So that level of play is 'not difficult'?

You also listed 7 players that will fall in the top 10-15, when there are only 5 spots available there.

Yes, lots of players could potentially do that... sure, but 7 guys can't occupy the same 5 spots at the same time, and given how far ahead CP3 and LBJ are of guys like Ellis and Iggy, it seems unlikely that either of those guys have a shot. Garnett, LBJ and CP3 are all going to be raising the standard of what it takes to get in the top 15 before Iggy or Ellis are even sniffing it.

'Not difficult'? Yeah.. you only have to be an MVP/All-Defensive player who maintains an elite level of play for 15-20 years. Easy.

FlashBolt
09-02-2015, 01:42 PM
I completely disagree with everything you're saying. Clearly we're not going to agree. Let's revisit this discussion 10 years from now and see how much the top 15 has changed.

I mean anyone can get there so clearly we'll have a bunch of new players from 6th to 15th. Because it's that easy.

You avoided the argument completely. Your logic is that Kawhi can do it but his APG for his career is as similar to some of those guys I mentioned (many of who are way higher than Kawhi in the rankings). So it just makes no sense to me to say you can only see Kawhi do it when plenty of others are right on par. You completely ignored LeBron's ranking and steals also... So, that just tells me you're being a bit stubborn here.



Monta Ellis can do it? He's 87th on the lsit right now. He needs 500 to crack that list, assuming nobody else enters it before him (which WILL happen). John Wall hasn't even posted a 150 season for steals yet. Iggy is eleven years in and he's not even top 50 yet.

CP3, LBJ, Westbrook and Curry, sure... they could make it in, but you said "not difficult' and the players you've listed are elite. Two MVP's, and two MVP candidates; all multiple All-Star and All-NBA appearances. So that level of play is 'not difficult'?

You also listed 7 players that will fall in the top 10-15, when there are only 5 spots available there.

Yes, lots of players could potentially do that... sure, but 7 guys can't occupy the same 5 spots at the same time, and given how far ahead CP3 and LBJ are of guys like Ellis and Iggy, it seems unlikely that either of those guys have a shot. Garnett, LBJ and CP3 are all going to be raising the standard of what it takes to get in the top 15 before Iggy or Ellis are even sniffing it.

'Not difficult'? Yeah.. you only have to be an MVP/All-Defensive player who maintains an elite level of play for 15-20 years. Easy.

Why can't Monta do it? 500 to crack the list, he can average 130 on an average season, that gives him about four seasons to crack it. That's more than plausible considering he mentioned Kawhi Leonard here. Same for Iggy, he has a chance. I can't predict the amount of seasons a player will play but he's only 400 away. Stop looking at the seeding. The threshold for the totals are very close (try one season+a couple of games the next season, and Iggy gets bumped up 14 spots into the 40th.

When I said plenty of players, I clearly meant elite players. What? You thought I meant Reggie Evans or something? No one can predict these things but there are more than ten players who can get into that list when it is all said and done. Notice, I used the word CAN. I never said WILL.

I listed 7 players as an example... Never said those are the exact ones. And if you read the original comment to of which I responded, it was more directed towards Kawhi getting it but not CP3. That must be a joke. CP3 has a chance to crack really high up on that list. Kawhi didn't really show much other than last season in regards to his SPG. But even then, it's misleading as hell. He missed nearly 20 games (losing about 40 steals).

JasonJohnHorn
09-02-2015, 05:00 PM
You avoided the argument completely. Your logic is that Kawhi can do it but his APG for his career is as similar to some of those guys I mentioned (many of who are way higher than Kawhi in the rankings). So it just makes no sense to me to say you can only see Kawhi do it when plenty of others are right on par. You completely ignored LeBron's ranking and steals also... So, that just tells me you're being a bit stubborn here.




Why can't Monta do it? 500 to crack the list, he can average 130 on an average season, that gives him about four seasons to crack it. That's more than plausible considering he mentioned Kawhi Leonard here. Same for Iggy, he has a chance. I can't predict the amount of seasons a player will play but he's only 400 away. Stop looking at the seeding. The threshold for the totals are very close (try one season+a couple of games the next season, and Iggy gets bumped up 14 spots into the 40th.

When I said plenty of players, I clearly meant elite players. What? You thought I meant Reggie Evans or something? No one can predict these things but there are more than ten players who can get into that list when it is all said and done. Notice, I used the word CAN. I never said WILL.

I listed 7 players as an example... Never said those are the exact ones. And if you read the original comment to of which I responded, it was more directed towards Kawhi getting it but not CP3. That must be a joke. CP3 has a chance to crack really high up on that list. Kawhi didn't really show much other than last season in regards to his SPG. But even then, it's misleading as hell. He missed nearly 20 games (losing about 40 steals).

If you are saying Monta can get X number of steals... sure.. but as I said, but the time he gets to that number, that number won't be high enough to crack the top 15 because CP3 and LBJ will have already bumped the numbers higher.

The point is that you are saying it's not difficult, and it sure as hell is difficult. The two guys in the best position to get there right now are LBJ and CP3, and they are MVP calibre players who have played at VERY high levels for a long period. One of them set the record for most consecutive seasons leading the league in assists, and the other is the youngest player to score the number of points he has. Those are phenomenal players who work extremely hard and play at historic levels. It's not like Darrell Armstrong and Andre Miller can get to that point. You need to be an elite player.

If you can't see that....

dhopisthename
09-03-2015, 12:03 AM
he missed 22 games over a 19 year career. Think of that. He doesn't show up until #17 in best steal percentage by year, but then has seasons littered all over the place for the top 50 all time.

He played a lot, never got hurt, and maintained a high enough steal rate. I won't say never, but that record will be a tough one to get to.

yeah that is what makes Stockton unique is that he played for so long and NEVER got hurt. I am also confused by your 17th? on career steal percentage he is 8th and on season he is 11th. like john stockton had 4 years with a higher steal percentage then someone like a paul ever got.

Hawkeye15
09-03-2015, 10:50 PM
yeah that is what makes Stockton unique is that he played for so long and NEVER got hurt. I am also confused by your 17th? on career steal percentage he is 8th and on season he is 11th. like john stockton had 4 years with a higher steal percentage then someone like a paul ever got.

13th was his highest steal percentage season, my bad. I filtered it by 20mpg or more. Nate McMillan had 2 seasons with a higher steal percentage than Stockton's best, Alvin Robertson had 3. But Stockton's ridic longevity and consistency just won out by a mile eventually.

I do think if Rubio had entered the league and never had injury issues he would have pushed a top 5 ever number. ***** can't stay healthy haha