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View Full Version : When do the wheels finally fall off Duncan?



Chronz
08-25-2015, 01:51 PM
Hes entering that stage where star bigs can drop off drastically. Will he ever have a steep decline ala KG or will it be more gradual like Kareem?

What kind of year do you expect from Duncan and do the Spurs need him to maintain the level he displayed in last years playoffs to contend?

SPURSFAN1
08-25-2015, 01:55 PM
He was the best player for the spurs during the playoffs and had the second most minutes for the RS. The wheels still on firmly.

Clippersfan86
08-25-2015, 01:57 PM
Him being the best player this year in the playoffs wasn't hard to do with guys like Parker/Ginobili falling off a cliff bad. They didn't even look like quality role players TBH. I predict he has just this year left at an all star worthy caliber, then by next year at 40 years old he will have a big drop off to being a useful role player if he doesn't retire.

SPURSFAN1
08-25-2015, 02:06 PM
Him being the best player this year in the playoffs wasn't hard to do with guys like Parker/Ginobili falling off a cliff bad. They didn't even look like quality role players TBH. I predict he has just this year left at an all star worthy caliber, then by next year at 40 years old he will have a big drop off to being a useful role player if he doesn't retire.

He's a role player? lol

Clippersfan86
08-25-2015, 02:06 PM
He's a role player? lol

No, he will be AFTER this upcoming season if he doesn't retire IMO. 1 more year left at this level.

SPURSFAN1
08-25-2015, 02:07 PM
Allstar in 2015

Htownballa1622
08-25-2015, 02:16 PM
I think he can still play well but I'm not sure if he will. I feel his decline can be like kareems.

Baynes and Splitter are gone so they will play Duncan at Center I'm assuming? How much longer could he do that? That remains to be seen.

I don't think Spurs are a shoe in for home court this year like most are predicting.

JasonJohnHorn
08-25-2015, 02:20 PM
He entered the stage where stars begin to drop off drastically five years ago.

The question is a tough one. We saw Nash play very well the year before he went to LAL, and his drop off was immediate. Perhaps due to injury.

Kidd's drop off wasn't so apparent; I think he could have still been playing in the league last year, but he was getting paid more to coach than play.

As for big men, you look at Kareem, and he started to drop off at 33. His boards-per36 dipped to single digits and continued to dig, as did his blocks per36, but it wasn't until 38 that his FG% started to drop.

You look at Duncan's per36, and they were actually better last year than they were five years before (only slightly). His FG% last year, the year Kareem's started going down, was his highest since he was 33.

Pop's approach to managing minutes is a huge factor. You play a guy from 22-33 for 38 minutes a game, and that is a lot of wear and tear on the body. Pop only rode him like that his first six years, then he started bringing those minutes down. In the last 12 years he's only averaged more than 34.8 minutes once, and only above 34 minutes twice.

I think there is also a question of conditioning.... it's my understanding that Duncan did (and still does?) a lot of swimming, which is extremely low impact, but allow you to stay in shape, and we are in a different era of sports where guys play longer. If Kareem was able to play until 40, I expect Duncan can do, and I expect Duncan to be able to do it at a higher level.

If Duncan wants to stay in the league that long, I imagine he'll have teams who want him until he's 42 at the rate he's going. His rebounding is tight because he has a high IQ; he knows how to position himself and he know how to box out. His defense is great because he knows how to get into the best position. He's not playing a position where speed is essential (like wing or point guard) so as long as he has stamina, he can keep playing.


I expect him to require reduced minute, but I can see him playing 18-22 minutes a game for the next four years if he wants and doing so effectively.

He's taken care of his body. I know people who compete as hard at 40 as they did at 30, and hard than they did at 20. We see it in pro athletes all the time. George Foreman. Kareem. Tom Brady won a superbowl at 37 in a sport that not a large percentage of players even make it to 30. John Elway played to 38. When we saw Rodman at 40, he was still rebounding like a fiend (he just had personal problems that prevented him from staying in the league). In baseball there are guys who last until 40. Cycling sees a lot of guys last until their late 30's.

I don't see any reason why Duncan can play out his current contract at the level he was at last year and likely add two more years onto that if he has the desire to play.

kingsdelez24
08-25-2015, 02:33 PM
He entered the stage where stars begin to drop off drastically five years ago.

The question is a tough one. We saw Nash play very well the year before he went to LAL, and his drop off was immediate. Perhaps due to injury.

Kidd's drop off wasn't so apparent; I think he could have still been playing in the league last year, but he was getting paid more to coach than play.

As for big men, you look at Kareem, and he started to drop off at 33. His boards-per36 dipped to single digits and continued to dig, as did his blocks per36, but it wasn't until 38 that his FG% started to drop.

You look at Duncan's per36, and they were actually better last year than they were five years before (only slightly). His FG% last year, the year Kareem's started going down, was his highest since he was 33.

Pop's approach to managing minutes is a huge factor. You play a guy from 22-33 for 38 minutes a game, and that is a lot of wear and tear on the body. Pop only rode him like that his first six years, then he started bringing those minutes down. In the last 12 years he's only averaged more than 34.8 minutes once, and only above 34 minutes twice.

I think there is also a question of conditioning.... it's my understanding that Duncan did (and still does?) a lot of swimming, which is extremely low impact, but allow you to stay in shape, and we are in a different era of sports where guys play longer. If Kareem was able to play until 40, I expect Duncan can do, and I expect Duncan to be able to do it at a higher level.

If Duncan wants to stay in the league that long, I imagine he'll have teams who want him until he's 42 at the rate he's going. His rebounding is tight because he has a high IQ; he knows how to position himself and he know how to box out. His defense is great because he knows how to get into the best position. He's not playing a position where speed is essential (like wing or point guard) so as long as he has stamina, he can keep playing.


I expect him to require reduced minute, but I can see him playing 18-22 minutes a game for the next four years if he wants and doing so effectively.

He's taken care of his body. I know people who compete as hard at 40 as they did at 30, and hard than they did at 20. We see it in pro athletes all the time. George Foreman. Kareem. Tom Brady won a superbowl at 37 in a sport that not a large percentage of players even make it to 30. John Elway played to 38. When we saw Rodman at 40, he was still rebounding like a fiend (he just had personal problems that prevented him from staying in the league). In baseball there are guys who last until 40. Cycling sees a lot of guys last until their late 30's.

I don't see any reason why Duncan can play out his current contract at the level he was at last year and likely add two more years onto that if he has the desire to play.

It wasn't apparent until he turned into the walking dud in the 2013 playoffs. He couldn't hit a shot to save his life, then his minutes got cut. He was doing great with the Knicks early that season though

R. Johnson#3
08-25-2015, 03:24 PM
Never

Mr_Jones
08-25-2015, 03:37 PM
I hope it never happens. He's great to watch.

jerellh528
08-25-2015, 03:55 PM
I don't think the wheels will ever fall off, he wills just continue his gradual decline and bow out on his own terms.

Catfish1314
08-25-2015, 04:06 PM
At this point, a serious injury is probably the only thing that could cause the wheels to fall off. Based on some of his past comments about longevity, I think Duncan is smart enough to know when it will be time. I think he'll recognize when he's starting lose it and call it a career before we witness something that would be sad to watch.

He's never been a guy who relied on being the biggest, strongest, best athlete, or anything age robs you of to be so successful. Given that and the manner in which Popovich manages his minutes, we could be waiting a while yet.

Hawkeye15
08-25-2015, 11:36 PM
I mean, Pops view on how to handle players has crashed the whole perspective.

Who knows honestly. Any team would be so lucky to have the talent Pops has, and then on top of it, be Pops.....

Kyben36
08-25-2015, 11:45 PM
Funny thing is... HE already has, but he is skilled enough and good enough fundamental that it doesn show as much as others. i mean, good skilled PFs can go on for a long time. if they can hit a good % of mid range and be big, team could ALLWAYS use them.

slashsnake
08-27-2015, 01:47 AM
When he decides they do lol

I don't think they will, just a slow regression. I think 5 years from now IF he wanted he could be playing 8 minutes a game and be great for 8 minutes a game. I mean last year he wasn't in decline... just his minutes. Shot over his career FG%, over his career FT%....

and look at his per36 numbers.
11.4 boards last year, career avg 11.5.
3.7 assists career avg 3.2
1 steal, career avg .8
2.4 blocks, career avg 2.3
2.1 TO's career avg 2.4
the only thing down a bit is 17.3 points vs. 20.4

In fact that's the only thing below his 2 MVP years rate per 36 minutes.

He's got old school game, and they just rest him enough where they get great Tim Duncan play just less minutes of it. He never had a game built on speed or quickness, never was a high flyer. He just can't keep that pace up as long.

IversonIsKrazy
08-27-2015, 02:46 AM
hes going to keep playing until he beats LeBrons son in the finals.

slashsnake
08-27-2015, 02:52 AM
hes going to keep playing until he beats LeBrons son in the finals.

lol... that would be funny...

I am fine if he just keeps that slow minute decline and plays forever or until he can't anymore. He loves basketball, loves playing it at the highest level, has a coach that isn't going to overwork him, is on a team that wins, and so what if he retires at 45... Not like that's an old age to retire from work.

D-Leethal
08-27-2015, 12:12 PM
Never. His role may be reduced, but he will be as elite as his role allows him to be until he rides off into the sunset.

kdspurman
08-27-2015, 12:30 PM
It amazes me how he's able to keep up with these athletes of today just by being smarter than them. He plays pretty much on 1 leg, but most nights he is able to take advantage of other guys inexperience or lower bbiq.

tredigs
08-27-2015, 01:32 PM
I had to check the date on this thread, because it literally could have been made word for word 5 years ago.

He's a beast. Or an alien. Well both.

Hawkeye15
08-27-2015, 01:36 PM
It amazes me how he's able to keep up with these athletes of today just by being smarter than them. He plays pretty much on 1 leg, but most nights he is able to take advantage of other guys inexperience or lower bbiq.

he is just so skilled on top of being smart too.

crazy how good he still is

flea
08-27-2015, 04:23 PM
He's also got maybe the best set of hands for a big man of all time, and that really helps. He's become less turnover prone and and has only gone from the unquestioned best rebounder in the league to one of the 3-4 best. You never see him juggling rebounds or releasing ugly putbacks. Just a quiet flip of his hand and a layup, or he grabs a board right at the top of his reach and looks for guards - I'm just sad he rarely runs the fast break anymore.

flea
08-27-2015, 04:24 PM
And by run the break I mean handle, he's still old but he still beats other bigs in transition for easy points fairly often.

ewing
08-27-2015, 04:27 PM
And by run the break I mean handle, he's still old but he still beats other bigs in transition for easy points fairly often.


Duncan still changes ends as quickly as any big in the league.

kdspurman
08-27-2015, 04:29 PM
He's also got maybe the best set of hands for a big man of all time, and that really helps. He's become less turnover prone and and has only gone from the unquestioned best rebounder in the league to one of the 3-4 best. You never see him juggling rebounds or releasing ugly putbacks. Just a quiet flip of his hand and a layup, or he grabs a board right at the top of his reach and looks for guards - I'm just sad he rarely runs the fast break anymore.

One of the best outlet passers in the game. He doesn't get as much attention as Kevin Love in that regard, but he's quite good at it. And he doesn't try to overdo it, picks his spots very carefully

Hawkeye15
08-27-2015, 05:32 PM
He's also got maybe the best set of hands for a big man of all time, and that really helps. He's become less turnover prone and and has only gone from the unquestioned best rebounder in the league to one of the 3-4 best. You never see him juggling rebounds or releasing ugly putbacks. Just a quiet flip of his hand and a layup, or he grabs a board right at the top of his reach and looks for guards - I'm just sad he rarely runs the fast break anymore.

Webber had fanstastic hands as well