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Nomar
08-20-2015, 09:26 AM
Who are some of the trade/FA targets you hope to see us target over the offseason?

For me:

Chris Archer
Chris Sale
FA: Heyward (if Castillo is traded)

Archer doesn't have the insane name value yet, but is filthy and has 4 years until FA. Would have to give up a lot for him or Sale. I would strongly consider offering Swihart in a package for him because I'm big on Vazquez's farming and defense.

Heyward probably won't get a crazy deal because people just don't get paid much for defense. But he'd be a good fit for our cavernous RF, and is still young with a lot of power to tap into. If Castillo can help us net a young frontline starter, there will be plenty of cap room to sign Heyward, who has a high floor.

celticsman2009
08-20-2015, 09:49 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if we were in on Price with Dombrowski at the helm now. Love the fact he said you need an ace.

I'd be ok with signing Price, rolling with in-house pitching for the rest of the rotation and gutting our BP. If you can move Hanley, I'd do it.

Bo Sox Fan
08-20-2015, 10:30 AM
Go big or go home, that seems to be Dombrowski's moto.

SP. David Price
SP. Sonny Gray
CL. Craig Kimbrel

Keep the youth position players and find a new manager that can create offence with an aggressive approach on the base paths, hit n' run, etc. Castillo and Bradley fit this philosophy and become regulars while all the money is invested in pitching.

Nomar
08-20-2015, 10:34 AM
I'm low on Sonny Gray. I think he's a young #2, not the ace he's made out to be. He doesn't get enough Ks to ever be too dominant in the AL East. For the price one would assume he'd cost (although with Beane who knows), I would pass.

Also the only problem I have with signing Price is that he's going to get 6 or 7 years and be a frontline starter for only a few of those years. It's inevitable. But with Dombrowski on board it wouldn't shock me either.

papipapsmanny
08-20-2015, 12:40 PM
I'm low on Sonny Gray. I think he's a young #2, not the ace he's made out to be. He doesn't get enough Ks to ever be too dominant in the AL East. For the price one would assume he'd cost (although with Beane who knows), I would pass.

Also the only problem I have with signing Price is that he's going to get 6 or 7 years and be a frontline starter for only a few of those years. It's inevitable. But with Dombrowski on board it wouldn't shock me either.

You said this at the beginning of the season and I completely disagreed then as well. He is an ace, and to say he isn't because of K-rates is ridiculous. He is also having an even better year than last year. His K-rates are good not great but he also has a very good GB%.

I'd love to trade for Carrasco and Gray, keep Buchholz, and start the rotation from there. That would be great.

Really don't want to sign any SPs in FA

RedSoxtober
08-20-2015, 01:09 PM
Hanley since the ASG: 22G, 90PA, .209/.233/.256, 4-2B, 0HR, 7RBI, 3BB, 15K
Shaw in 2015: 23G, 71PA, .369/.408/.677, 2-2B, 6HR, 11RBI, 5BB, 9K

Not so much to say how great Shaw is (though he IS making the most of his chance) but to put Hanely's futility in context. For all his talk about not switching positions I get the sense that he would have gotten back to the game quicker if he were playing somewhere on the field where he felt at least a little confident. The swoon is not completely unlike Bogaerts when he switched to 3B a year ago.

celticsman2009
08-20-2015, 01:57 PM
Hanley has been bad the second half. He's a negative factor in the clubhouse, and he wimps out on everything

Bo Sox Fan
08-20-2015, 04:30 PM
Hanley has been bad the second half. He's a negative factor in the clubhouse, and he wimps out on everything

I'm not preaching to dump Hanley here nor would it break my heart if he stayed but please find one episode this season where Hanley was a cancer to this ball club.

Moral wise, I actually look at it as a win off the field in that Han Ram has kept his nose clean with Ortiz as his father figure.

But yah, find me an incident?

ruckus16969
08-20-2015, 04:32 PM
I'd like to see if Shaw can keep this going. Diamond in the rough.

It would be amazing to have him, XB, Swihart/Vasquez, JBJ, Castillo, Betts, ERod, Owens and Holt core.

Plus the kids in the minors. Exciting time to be a doc fan

-Lavigne43-
08-20-2015, 05:05 PM
Hanley since the ASG: 22G, 90PA, .209/.233/.256, 4-2B, 0HR, 7RBI, 3BB, 15K
Shaw in 2015: 23G, 71PA, .369/.408/.677, 2-2B, 6HR, 11RBI, 5BB, 9K

Not so much to say how great Shaw is (though he IS making the most of his chance) but to put Hanely's futility in context. For all his talk about not switching positions I get the sense that he would have gotten back to the game quicker if he were playing somewhere on the field where he felt at least a little confident. The swoon is not completely unlike Bogaerts when he switched to 3B a year ago.

JBjr would be a better player to compare with then Shaw. You could argue that our best OF going forward has JBjr in it. He's really cleaned up his swing dramatically since last season.

Bo Sox Fan
08-20-2015, 05:27 PM
JBJ's cannon arm and range and just his overall defence makes him a positive WAR player in itself. Stuff him at the back of the order and you have a very nice 9th hitter who's not depended on for his offence.

LF Castillo
CF Bradley Jr
RF Betts

All day.

theGhost-isGone
08-20-2015, 09:29 PM
JBJ's cannon arm and range and just his overall defence makes him a positive WAR player in itself. Stuff him at the back of the order and you have a very nice 9th hitter who's not depended on for his offence.

LF Castillo
CF Bradley Jr
RF Betts

All day.

In 3 years we'll have it even better if we don't blow the farm up-

C Swihart/Vasquez
1B Shaw/Travis
2B Betts
SS Bogaerts/Moncada
3B Moncada/Shaw
LF Castillo
CF JBjr
RF Hayward/Harper
DH HanRam

the pitching is a crapshoot unless we sign an ace and can get another cost controlled youngster as the #2. I like E-Rod, Barnes and Owens as possible 3-4-5 guys with Miley/Kelly moving to the BP. Still some talented youngsters who could project to come out of the BP for us as well, I'm hoping we don't go out and try to fill those spots externally like we did with Varvaro and Ross last off-season.

ruckus16969
08-21-2015, 02:39 AM
Is it time to trade Pedrioa? Betts at 2nd may make more sense for this team

RedSoxtober
08-21-2015, 04:03 PM
JBjr would be a better player to compare with then Shaw. You could argue that our best OF going forward has JBjr in it. He's really cleaned up his swing dramatically since last season.

True, that would have been better. I thought of Shaw because of the HRs and HanRam's lack of XBH as well as the contiguous and overlapping playing time.

JBJr since 7/29: 19G, 75PA, 17R, 5-2B, 3-3B, 4HR, 19RBI, 10BB, 17K, .302/.400/.667
HanRam since ASG: 25G, 99PA, 9R, 5-2B, 0-3B, 0HR, 8RBI, 3BB, 17K, .211/.232/.263

FanGraph's has a nice article on the changes that JBJ made to his swing here (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-currently-exploding-jackie-bradley-jr/).

ruckus16969
08-22-2015, 04:47 PM
I'd like to see some big changes starting with the BP. I'd sign all 3 of Clippard O'Day and O'Flarity. Trade for Kimbrel or Chapman. Preferably Kimbrel and send them Panda as part of the Package.

Then go sign Price or Cueto

And trade for Carrasco. Owens or Johnson would likely go possible we could ship out Miley in that deal too.


Then if we ship Panda out sign Chris Davis

Betts
Castillo
Pedrioa
Davis
Ortiz
HanRam
XB
Shaw
Swihart

Price/Cueto (hopefully Price)
Carrasco
ERod
Buch
Porcello

Holt
JBJ
Some kid

Clippard
O'Day
O'Flarity
Tarawa
Kelly
Kimbrel/ Chapman

ruckus16969
08-22-2015, 04:48 PM
That team can win allot of games and it would still preserve alloy of our farm

BGeer091
08-22-2015, 04:53 PM
Yeah its not my wishlist at all but I believe we sign one of Price, Grienke or Zimmerman.

Trade for another top of the rotation guy.

Sign Chris Davis.

I just feel that's the way it's going to go

LA Sox Fan
08-22-2015, 06:20 PM
Speaking of the rotation... I'm curious what people think is going to happen with Buchholz this offseason. I think the Sox have the first of two team option years on him at $13mil per year. I know that when he's healthy that's a steal but I'm done with him wreaking havoc on the rotation every single season when he inevitably gets hurt. After his latest (season-ending) injury I can't imagine he's got much trade value.

Is it crazy for the Sox to not pick up his option? You know you've got Porcello, E-Rod & Miley in the rotation next season. Assuming they get an ace, then that's 4/5 of the rotation filled. I'd much rather see them save $13mil and give that remaining spot to whoever earns it between Owens, Barnes, Johnson, etc... and use some of that money to shore up the bullpen. Thoughts?

Bo Sox Fan
08-22-2015, 06:29 PM
I'm not sure if anyone has heard of Byung-Ho Park, or if we're even aloud to pursue him after blowing our shorts on Yoan Moncada, but his numbers are absolutely ridiculous in Japan. Similar to Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates when he was overseas, but Park is a first baseman.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=park--000byu&mobile=false

Good night of living, sign him if Shaw is traded.

RedSoxtober
08-24-2015, 12:24 PM
Sign Chris Davis.
I'm not especially a fan of Davis. The 25HR power is nice but the k-rate scares me. Signing him for his age 30 season and beyond could quickly go south the way Napoli's did. Also, .218/.307/.351 career numbers at Fenway are scary if you consider how much that line should have been padded the last few seasons.


Speaking of the rotation... I'm curious what people think is going to happen with Buchholz this offseason. I think the Sox have the first of two team option years on him at $13mil per year. I know that when he's healthy that's a steal but I'm done with him wreaking havoc on the rotation every single season when he inevitably gets hurt. After his latest (season-ending) injury I can't imagine he's got much trade value.

I've been thinking the same thing lately. It's not just the injury itself but, once again, having the docs say he can start throwing and him refusing to do so.

ruckus16969
08-24-2015, 12:51 PM
I think it may be time to trade Pedrioa

RedSoxtober
08-24-2015, 02:58 PM
it’s almost impossible to imagine the Red Sox not picking up Buchholz’s option -- even if Dombrowski ultimately decides to trade the righthander. Nick Cafardo’s Sunday notebook quotes one executive who speculates that Buchholz might be in line for a three-year deal at $15 million per on the open market.

In that light, the two options on his deal suggest that he’d be available at 1) a below-market rate and 2) the most desirable sort of team control, chiefly a short-term deal (one or, if he justifies it, two years for No. 4 starter money) without obligation beyond the immediate season. That is a very, very tradable asset, meaning that despite Buchholz’s inconsistencies, it would make little sense simply to cut ties with him in a fashion that sacrificed any opportunity to capture value from him as an asset, whether for the Sox going forward or as a trade chip.Alex Speier

ruckus16969
08-24-2015, 06:17 PM
I'd almost rather keep him at least until the trade deadline. The kid is good when he is healthy

Bo Sox Fan
08-24-2015, 09:43 PM
Here's one, lol.

To Cubs
SS Bogaerts
2B Pedroia
SP Johnson
UT Holt

To Red Sox
3B Bryant
SS Castro

j-bay
08-24-2015, 10:16 PM
I would only sign Davis if we do the following.
1. We get of Hanley.
2. We can't fix Shaw's SO problem, which has been happening the last few days.

Fla.SticKy
08-25-2015, 09:32 AM
If we go to complete overhaul mode.....

Trade: Panda, Pedroia, and possibly Hanley.

Starting Pitching:
Go after Archer, Gray, Carrasco (I think is the most realistic), maybe even Cleveland's Salazar. Make a run a Zimmerman, Price, or Grienke, and then trade for a closer (Kimbrell).

As far as the love for Heyward, I think I'd rather have J.Upton. Also would inquire about 1B/DH Mitch Moreland (if we can move Hanley)

*Chris Davis....scares me with his Ks, and how long are we gonna get that power for? I'm on the fence with him....

All in all we have a great group of young guys with tons of talent. I say we get a solid pitching core put together and just ride most of these young guns in the line up.

Bo Sox Fan
08-25-2015, 09:36 AM
I would never sign Davis for any reason, he's basically a left handed Mike Napoli.

If this team actually gets stuck with keeping both Panda & Han Ram after this winter (which I doubt) it might be wise to just keep first base a wide open revolving door. Almost like a second DH spot except your forced to play a little defence.

If Ortiz can those 2 should be able to once in a while.

-Lavigne43-
08-25-2015, 11:55 AM
I see Archer named multiple times. The guy is signed dirt cheap through 2021, he's going nowhere. He's easily one of the most untradable players in baseball, along with Sale who people also love to name.

Norieaga
08-25-2015, 01:14 PM
Guys, we're not getting cost-controlled studs like Archer, Bryant, and so forth.

Fla.SticKy
08-25-2015, 02:09 PM
I see Archer named multiple times. The guy is signed dirt cheap through 2021, he's going nowhere. He's easily one of the most untradable players in baseball, along with Sale who people also love to name.

Yeah, that's why I said Carrasco is more realistic. Also, if Archer did hit the market for some crazy reason, there would be enough teams on it, that they would trade him out of the division. Sale is just a big No way, as much as I would love to have him, he alone would put a massive dent in the farm. Back to Archer, I'd still test the water.......But like you said it's almost inevitable he's not going anywhere.

Fla.SticKy
08-25-2015, 05:12 PM
Since it's a "wish list"....... Go ahead a throw Jose Abreu in there while your at it.

BGeer091
08-25-2015, 05:39 PM
So for me my wish list is this.

Bryce Harper
Adam Jones
Will Myers
Carlos Gonzalez

Obviously not all of those players. I'd like to move on from Pedroia... which opens up Betts at 2B. Leaves Bradley in Center, Castillo at a corner. My list is in order of preference. It still pisses me off that there was talk of Harper for Lester and we didn't go for it. It's going to cost something to get them. They are all worth it.

Pedro Alvarez is a guy I'd like to look at for 1B this year... DH after Ortiz. I'm just a fan of his and think he still hasn't peaked.

Matt Dominguez is a guy that I'm sure ppl are going to puke at. He's a buy low guy that I think is better than stats show.

Pitchers wise...
Sale
Strasburg
Shelby Miller
Zach Wheeler

I'm not big on any of the F.A pitchers. If I had to pick one it'd be Cueto.

Closer
Chapman
Kimbrel

These guys are never usually available. They are IMO all time greats. The Redsox need to go out and get one.

Wade Davis is a guy I think the Sox should push for. One of the above closers plus Davis would be great. Shorten the game considerably. Which is key with young pitchers finding there game.

mzg32
08-25-2015, 06:18 PM
Sign Price
Trade for Carrasco
Ship Panda to SD
Sign 3-4 relievers
Keep Orsillo
Bring back Heidi Watney

BoSox47
08-25-2015, 10:01 PM
Quintana.

ruckus16969
08-25-2015, 11:59 PM
So for me my wish list is this.

Bryce Harper
Adam Jones
Will Myers
Carlos Gonzalez

Obviously not all of those players. I'd like to move on from Pedroia... which opens up Betts at 2B. Leaves Bradley in Center, Castillo at a corner. My list is in order of preference. It still pisses me off that there was talk of Harper for Lester and we didn't go for it. It's going to cost something to get them. They are all worth it.

Pedro Alvarez is a guy I'd like to look at for 1B this year... DH after Ortiz. I'm just a fan of his and think he still hasn't peaked.

Matt Dominguez is a guy that I'm sure ppl are going to puke at. He's a buy low guy that I think is better than stats show.

Pitchers wise...
Sale
Strasburg
Shelby Miller
Zach Wheeler

I'm not big on any of the F.A pitchers. If I had to pick one it'd be Cueto.

Closer
Chapman
Kimbrel

These guys are never usually available. They are IMO all time greats. The Redsox need to go out and get one.

Wade Davis is a guy I think the Sox should push for. One of the above closers plus Davis would be great. Shorten the game considerably. Which is key with young pitchers finding there game.

Dominguez actually could have some great power. Could being the key word. Definitely would go hard for one of those closers and also try to get Davis or a O'Day I think we need to add at least 2 if not 3 solid relievers.

Kimbrel/Chapman, Davis/O'Day Koji would make it so our SP'ers would only have to go 6 innings. That would be super helpful.

I'd also be game to trade Pedey and let Bets slide back to 2nd and sign Chris Davis to play LF for us.

I'd also like to see Orsillo back

BGeer091
08-26-2015, 08:51 AM
Oh and one other thing ha. I'm also a guy who would like to sign Heyward. I feel like people forget he's only 25. He's having a break out season. I still believe he is going to be great

RedSoxtober
08-26-2015, 09:50 AM
Oh and one other thing ha. I'm also a guy who would like to sign Heyward. I feel like people forget he's only 25. He's having a break out season. I still believe he is going to be great

I don't see a break out season. He's hitting for a little more average but his OBP/SLG are pretty much in line with the past and his 115OPS+ is almost dead on his career mark (114). His XBH numbers are all on track to be in line with what he's done in the past as well. Don't get me wrong, it's a nice career mark, but I don't see a breakout year when this is right in the middle of the pack for his career and can't justify the money he's likely to command when we have similar options already available for far less.

Fla.SticKy
08-26-2015, 09:56 AM
I don't see a break out season. He's hitting for a little more average but his OBP/SLG are pretty much in line with the past and his 115OPS+ is almost dead on his career mark (114). His XBH numbers are all on track to be in line with what he's done in the past as well. Don't get me wrong, it's a nice career mark, but I don't see a breakout year when this is right in the middle of the pack for his career and can't justify the money he's likely to command when we have similar options already available for far less.

x2

Bo Sox Fan
08-26-2015, 10:24 AM
I think the only way it makes sense to sign Heyward is to trade Pedroia. The argument being that Heyward is way more likely to stay healthy and on the field while Betts slots back into his natural position at 2B. Then look how stupid good your outfield defence is.

RF. Heyward
CF. Bradley Jr
LF. Castillo

RedSoxtober
08-26-2015, 04:28 PM
I think the only way it makes sense to sign Heyward is to trade Pedroia. The argument being that Heyward is way more likely to stay healthy and on the field while Betts slots back into his natural position at 2B. Then look how stupid good your outfield defence is.

RF. Heyward
CF. Bradley Jr
LF. Castillo

This I would actually buy. Heyward's salary is offset by Pedroia's and Heyward is more likely to earn his money (at least the Pedroia part). I guess that it's still an open question as to whether or not you can move Pedroia; the buyers are obviously going to have similar concerns that would lead you to trade him. That said, the proposal definitely makes sense.

papipapsmanny
08-26-2015, 06:32 PM
My argument is Heyward is better tha JBJ today for sure, and still has more potential than him. So I rather use JBJ to trade for a young SP, and Margot as well. And spend the money on Heyward, who again is seemingly a sure bet to be a 3.5 WAR every year of of say a 7 year deal.

From a value stand point. It would be much better to trade Margot, and JBJ for an SP or two, than to keep them and Spend big on a 30 year old pitcher on a 7 year deal

AI
08-26-2015, 09:32 PM
People forget just how valuable Pedroia is. In just 75 games this year, he not only earned his salary but gave us $2.1M in excess value. Last season he gave us $19M in excess value. I think it's gotten to a point where we actually underrate Pedroia, as difficult as that might be. He has a very team friendly contract and having him allows us to use Mookie in the OF, where IMO he's more valuable to us. Trading Pedroia shouldn't be an option.

Trading Hanley however? That's something we should seriously be looking into. I'm hoping that Dombrowski pulls off a trade similar to the Fielder for Kinsler swap (big contract for big contract).

Bo Sox Fan
08-26-2015, 10:36 PM
The other side of the coin is that Pedroia is of zero value sitting on the DL for extended periods of time with constant lingering pain 2 years in a row and he'll be 32 next season while Heyward turned 26 just days ago.

ruckus16969
08-27-2015, 02:01 AM
I think the only way it makes sense to sign Heyward is to trade Pedroia. The argument being that Heyward is way more likely to stay healthy and on the field while Betts slots back into his natural position at 2B. Then look how stupid good your outfield defence is.

RF. Heyward
CF. Bradley Jr
LF. Castillo

Even if we traded Pedrioa Heyward would be the best fit. We me a 25-30 HR hitter hitting in the OF.
We have 2 other Heyward s already

I'd rather find a power guy like Upton to patrol left field if we where to any of this

AI
08-27-2015, 10:47 AM
Have people not been watching just how good the Betts/JBJ/Castillo OF has looked? Plus 2 of our top prospects happen to be OF's as well (Margot and Benintendi). Don't sign an OF and use that $ to figure the real issue, starting rotation and bullpen.

j-bay
08-27-2015, 12:14 PM
Have people not been watching just how good the Betts/JBJ/Castillo OF has looked? Plus 2 of our top prospects happen to be OF's as well (Margot and Benintendi). Don't sign an OF and use that $ to figure the real issue, starting rotation and bullpen.

. I think we should put Marmot in a package with Owens for Gray. In the last year I have seen that a lot of scouts are high on Margot.

As for Cueto vs Price, I would want Price but Cueto seems like the easier get for us. Price seems like he is going to be tricky to get even with DD in office. Cueto has said he would like to come here. It seems like he is good friends with Papi, Panda, and Hanley. And Pedro has been a mentor like figure to him.

RedSoxtober
08-27-2015, 01:00 PM
My argument is Heyward is better tha JBJ today for sure, and still has more potential than him. So I rather use JBJ to trade for a young SP, and Margot as well. And spend the money on Heyward, who again is seemingly a sure bet to be a 3.5 WAR every year of of say a 7 year deal.

Meh, I'm sure he is better than JBJ and his value over the first four years of a Heyward deal might also be better. But how much better? If Bradley returns to hitting more somewhere between replacement level and league average he is probably still at least a 2WAR player (1.0 so far this year with more bat but only 1/4 a season's worth of games). Is the price difference worth the production difference? That obviously depends on the price.

FG WAR$ would put Heyward in the $25M range if he's at 3.5WAR. Is he really a $25M guy? That strikes me as franchise player money and he's nowhere near that IMO. Okay, so maybe their metrics is a little high (I generally think so). Let's drop it down a bit... but not much. Granderson got $16M/yr and didn't have the potential that you'd suggest is there for Heyward. Pence at $18.5M/yr is closer. Ellsbury and Choo around $22M/yr? The market probably tags him as another $20M player. How many of those do we need? How viable can our long term roster be if we've got Heyward for 5-7yrs at $18M-20M?

That's the main problem that I have. Even if we move Pedroia we are paying SIGNIFICANTLY more money for OF value that is not significantly greater. The price difference ends up affecting every other part of the roster. Even the young, cost-controlled pitchers that everyone wants to target are not going to be cheap for very long. Take Gray, for example. Does anyone doubt that, if his performance continues, he's not an 8-figure player by his second year in arbitration? You may need to steer away from that uncertainty to guys like Carasco who have salaries locked in... and then run the risk that they not perform to the expectations of a #1 (as seemingly haunted Porcello).


From a value stand point. It would be much better to trade Margot, and JBJ for an SP or two, than to keep them and Spend big on a 30 year old pitcher on a 7 year deal

I disagree about the value argument. IMO you cannot argue about the value of each player independently of the others which is why I suggested that the relative values of JBJ/Heyward were important. (It's also questionable as to whether that comparison or Castillo/Heyward is more appropriate). So far it also ignores the money going to the pitcher as well.

In the end I think the biggest problem with targeting Heyward is the way that it limits overall roster construction. The most specific issue is that we would be targeting a guy that we like in a position that we not only do not NEED to cover but one which, by most accounts, already has an enormous surplus. I am not opposed to trading from the surplus (Margot or even JBJ) for a pitcher but we can do that and still not need to spend for the additional (marginal?) bump that a $20M OFer would bring.

ruckus16969
08-27-2015, 02:29 PM
You need a veteran to balance things out. Someone to help these kids through slumps.

I'd love nothing more then to just let all these kids play to there fullest but we learned in 2012 and 2014 that don't work

papipapsmanny
08-27-2015, 06:16 PM
Meh, I'm sure he is better than JBJ and his value over the first four years of a Heyward deal might also be better. But how much better? If Bradley returns to hitting more somewhere between replacement level and league average he is probably still at least a 2WAR player (1.0 so far this year with more bat but only 1/4 a season's worth of games). Is the price difference worth the production difference? That obviously depends on the price.

FG WAR$ would put Heyward in the $25M range if he's at 3.5WAR. Is he really a $25M guy? That strikes me as franchise player money and he's nowhere near that IMO. Okay, so maybe their metrics is a little high (I generally think so). Let's drop it down a bit... but not much. Granderson got $16M/yr and didn't have the potential that you'd suggest is there for Heyward. Pence at $18.5M/yr is closer. Ellsbury and Choo around $22M/yr? The market probably tags him as another $20M player. How many of those do we need? How viable can our long term roster be if we've got Heyward for 5-7yrs at $18M-20M?

That's the main problem that I have. Even if we move Pedroia we are paying SIGNIFICANTLY more money for OF value that is not significantly greater. The price difference ends up affecting every other part of the roster. Even the young, cost-controlled pitchers that everyone wants to target are not going to be cheap for very long. Take Gray, for example. Does anyone doubt that, if his performance continues, he's not an 8-figure player by his second year in arbitration? You may need to steer away from that uncertainty to guys like Carasco who have salaries locked in... and then run the risk that they not perform to the expectations of a #1 (as seemingly haunted Porcello).



I disagree about the value argument. IMO you cannot argue about the value of each player independently of the others which is why I suggested that the relative values of JBJ/Heyward were important. (It's also questionable as to whether that comparison or Castillo/Heyward is more appropriate). So far it also ignores the money going to the pitcher as well.

In the end I think the biggest problem with targeting Heyward is the way that it limits overall roster construction. The most specific issue is that we would be targeting a guy that we like in a position that we not only do not NEED to cover but one which, by most accounts, already has an enormous surplus. I am not opposed to trading from the surplus (Margot or even JBJ) for a pitcher but we can do that and still not need to spend for the additional (marginal?) bump that a $20M OFer would bring.

I disagree. First JBJ is not even a year younger than Heyward. 2nd if you count on JBJ doing what he is doing now going forward, than I miles well go ahead and count on Heyward repeating his 2012 season.

Trading JBJ would be doing something we never do and that is selling high on a player. Again if we trade Margot and JBJ for a SP than yes we would need an OF, because Hanley is no longer an OF. Yeah we have Benintendi in LOW A.

Paying 20 million for a player (don't know if he gets that) is not what caused us to be bad, it was signing players to do those deals who aren't performing or had no business getting those deals in the first place.

Again Heyward is 26, and is a 4-5 WAR player, probably one of the safest FAs in a long time.

As for Gray well of course his cost will go up, but it is still much cheaper than signing a 30 year old FA who then ends up sucking at the end of the deal.

And don't compare Porcello to Gray or Carrasco. Porcello is a 3/4 pitcher. Always said that too. Carrasco and Gray are 1/2 types.

Again from a whole value standpoint, not sure who I can make it anymore clear. That Trading JBJ and Margot for SPs, and selling high on JBJ, and then signing Heyward. Has better value and less risk, than singing big on someone like Cueto and Price.

And that goes for the short term and long term. Why? Because Heyward is a safe bet to be productive through 7 years of a contract (unlike and SP, and unlike the unknown future of JBJ's production). And because Someone like Gray/Carrasco on controlled years/money is a lot easier to deal with if they bust, than if we signed Price/Cueto to a huge deal, and that guy Busted.

I'm content with just trading for the SPs and having no major FA signings.... but If our FO is keen on making an FA splash... I hope to god its not an SP and that it is Heyward

Bo Sox Fan
08-27-2015, 08:32 PM
I'm intrigued to see which direction the Rays go this offseason because if they cheap out and even begin to consider dealing Longoria we definitely have the resources to bring him in within the division.

Cheap MLB ready now talent like Owens, JBJ and Vazquez might start to entice them wanting to rid of his remaining salary which is actually not bad for a big market club to absorb.

This is just one of those "I didn't see that coming" deals that we could end up in with Dombrowski.

http://nesn.com/2013/07/evan-longoria-calls-fenway-park-my-favorite-place-to-play-on-the-road-compliments-red-sox-fans/

GrkGawdofWalkz
08-28-2015, 10:46 AM
I will be a bit more realistic and go after:

1: Jordan Zimmerman, RHP
2: Johnny Cueto, RHP
3: David Price, LHP

In that order. I want a sure fire ace.

Trade Front:

1: Sonny Gray, RHP
2: Getting rid of Hanley Ramirez
3: Starting pitching.

I'm also one of the few ready to let Buchholz walk I'm assuming. I find his inability to stay healthy frustrating. He should have been traded previously.

Bo Sox Fan
08-28-2015, 11:11 AM
I wonder if the Angels will take a stab at Hanley for their DH position sometime between now and spring training. They've taken on bad contracts before in Vernon Wells and Josh Hamilton. There offence currently blows outside of Trout and Pujols but are still managing to hang in the playoff race.

They've got the billion dollar TV deal to afford it.

trentman1155
08-28-2015, 12:01 PM
Can we claim Oday or Krod we need a closer

ruckus16969
08-28-2015, 01:42 PM
I would love ODay

BGeer091
08-28-2015, 01:56 PM
Did we claim Kimbrel?

win red sox
08-28-2015, 09:43 PM
our the 3rd and 5th hitter in tonights lineup have a combined 6 hr's, Ortiz will be gone after next year. Requests 2 middle of the order bats.

win red sox
08-28-2015, 09:44 PM
Did we claim Kimbrel?

doubt he made it past the cubs, nats, or even the dodgers.

win red sox
08-28-2015, 09:50 PM
If JBJ keeps hitting like this he's a 6 war player, I'm so happy the front office didn't sell low on him.

RedSoxtober
08-29-2015, 07:20 PM
I disagree. First JBJ is not even a year younger than Heyward. 2nd if you count on JBJ doing what he is doing now going forward, than I miles well go ahead and count on Heyward repeating his 2012 season.
This highlights the problem that I have with the response in general. You didn't really bother to deal with the points that I made but rather just tried to make your points more loudly. I did not suggest that JBJ would continue to do what he has done lately; in fact I suggested that he'd still be a 2+ WAR player if he hit somewhere between replacement and league average. I also pointed out that Heyward vs Castillo is a better comparison.

The way your argument proceeds you seem to suggest that "value" is essentially free. I'm guessing that value is basically WAR... but it's not. That's why I raise the point that paying $500K for a 2.5WAR player may be a better value than paying $20M for a 4WAR player. Is it worth paying an additional $19M for 2-3 WAR? I would say no, especially if you're paying for an area in which you already have surplus.

As for the $20M figure that you call into doubt, please provide some info why you suggest that he's likely to be paid less. I provided several points of comparison that pretty easily suggest that he's worth at least $18.5M and possibly as much as $22M. If he is worth less than Ellsbury and Choo then your argument about his value pretty much vaporizes.

I think that you completely misunderstood the reference to Porcello. First of all, Gray had nothing to do with it (I explicitly ruled him out in fact). Secondly, the point was that some pitchers crumble while they're given the responsibility of being the lead dog. Porcello did. So has Clay. Perceived talent has little to do with it; it's all about temperament. You can assert that Carrasco is different if you like but until he actually has the responsibility of the role you cannot know. In a very real way it's similar to the argument that you don't need a closer because the last three outs of the game are not statistically different than any other three outs.

papipapsmanny
08-29-2015, 09:39 PM
I highly doubt the pitcher's number in the rotation affects their performance. Porcello did bad, because he pitched bad, some bad luck, and injury, and he never was a 1/2 pitcher to begin with.

Again my argument isn't for signing Heyward... Im highly content with not doing anything in FA. My main point was if we end up making a big signing I hope its him and Not Cueto/Price, essentially for the fact he will probably be worth his deal, the whle duration of the deal, and is less likely to have a major injury.

Im not comparing Heyward to JBJ, again in the scenario I suggested JBJ was traded as a means to acquire a frontline pitcher (younger cost controlled ones).

I just don't want to sign a pitcher

ruckus16969
08-30-2015, 01:24 AM
I want to sign a pitcher I'd actually like to sign 1 of Price or Cueto and 1 of Zimmerman or Grenkie if not sign the second I'd like to trade for another. I hope we go nuts and rebuild the staff.

I hope we manage to keep Buch and zeros in the process

j-bay
09-01-2015, 06:42 PM
@redsoxstats

"Wintertime goal to get a free agent to slot in the top of the rotation. Hanley 1B going forward, Shaw a fall back option." Dombrowski, MLBN

So I'm thinking it's in this order
Cueto
Price
Zimmerman
Greinke

Pittz
09-01-2015, 06:59 PM
I think the biggest question is if we sign Zimmermann, will anyone bother to add the extra "n" to his name?

Bo Sox Fan
09-01-2015, 08:18 PM
It turns out all this team needed was a new suit and tie in the press box along with a new manager. The players have had it all along!

Now get an ace this winter.

win red sox
09-01-2015, 09:13 PM
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article33250395.html

Maybe DD can pull off another Cabrera/Willis trade.

Bo Sox Fan
09-01-2015, 09:35 PM
I'd flip if we traded for Stanton, Fernandez and signed Cueto. Flip in a good way.

Out:
OF Castillo
C. Swihart
3B Devers
SP Johnson
SP Owens
2B Rijo

win red sox
09-01-2015, 10:25 PM
I'd flip if we traded for Stanton, Fernandez and signed Cueto. Flip in a good way.

Out:
OF Castillo
C. Swihart
3B Devers
SP Johnson
SP Owens
2B Rijo

Looking at there roster and farm, they need a cf, cof, 3b, 1b, and sp's.

maybe something like

Devers
Margot
Guerra
Castillo
Espinoza
Shaw
Johnson

its fun to dream!!!

WOwolfOL
09-02-2015, 01:23 AM
So, Red Sox fans, is JBJ untouchable?

theGhost-isGone
09-02-2015, 06:17 AM
So, Red Sox fans, is JBJ untouchable?

I would say yes. Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley Jr are our best players in the field at their age. Guys like Swihart, Devers, Margot, Shaw and a few others are likely to be good but not as good as the prior 3 will be.

If Hanley sticks at 1B our OF will look like Castillo/Betts/JBJ. Maybe this doesn't maximize the offensive potential of sticking a plus slugger/minus defender in LF but it utilizes Bradley Jr's range and arm in a monster RF. If we were talking about a package for Stanton (and ludicrously enough add Fernandez) that would be altogether a different story, if it meant giving him up meant keeping guys like Owens and Swihart.

Station 13
09-02-2015, 09:30 AM
So, Red Sox fans, is JBJ untouchable?

Everyone has a price.

RedSoxtober
09-02-2015, 09:42 AM
Yeah its not my wishlist at all but I believe we sign one of Price, Grienke or Zimmerman.

Trade for another top of the rotation guy.

Sign Chris Davis.

I just feel that's the way it's going to go


http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article33250395.html

Maybe DD can pull off another Cabrera/Willis trade.
And trade for Stanton just before his walk year in 2026?


So, Red Sox fans, is JBJ untouchable?
No. He's on a ridiculous but unsustainable tear right now and i won't let that cloud my judgment. I think that he's a very valuable player as a perennial GG OF as long as he can hit enough to stick around and it appears that he can do at least that. The Sox, however, have two others capable of playing CF at an above average rate (Betts/Castillo) with a third about a year away (Margot) and a fourth 2-3yrs away (Benintendi). The latter two have a much higher ceiling offensively.

I'd personally be willing to move JBJr at an inflated price right now if it helped the rotation.

Bo Sox Fan
09-02-2015, 12:35 PM
What the hell is up with Pedroia these days is he coming back or is he shut right down for the rest of the season again?

Must be nice to sit on the DL for extended periods of time and play chess with Buchholz while raking in millions...

celticsman2009
09-02-2015, 12:58 PM
And trade for Stanton just before his walk year in 2026?


No. He's on a ridiculous but unsustainable tear right now and i won't let that cloud my judgment. I think that he's a very valuable player as a perennial GG OF as long as he can hit enough to stick around and it appears that he can do at least that. The Sox, however, have two others capable of playing CF at an above average rate (Betts/Castillo) with a third about a year away (Margot) and a fourth 2-3yrs away (Benintendi). The latter two have a much higher ceiling offensively.

I'd personally be willing to move JBJr at an inflated price right now if it helped the rotation.

I'd rather move castillo and margot over Bradley. Bradley is by far the superior outfielder. While his offense wont be all that and a bag of chips, I don't see anything special from Margot. I'd move Castillo too and run with Betts Bradley and Benintendi. Trade margot and Castillo for pitching.

win red sox
09-02-2015, 02:30 PM
[QUOTE=RedSoxtober;30297559]And trade for Stanton just before his walk year in 2026?

in 2018 his salary jumps up to 25m, in 2020 he has an opt out. The Marlins have holes everywhere and no help coming from the farm. The team has no future as of now, and I would be wiling to bet that Stanton would waive his no trade clause. Let the Stanton dream live on.

RedSoxtober
09-02-2015, 02:31 PM
What the hell is up with Pedroia these days is he coming back or is he shut right down for the rest of the season again?

Must be nice to sit on the DL for extended periods of time and play chess with Buchholz while raking in millions...
I think cribbage is their game :). At any rate, I think Gammons or Speier made specific mention of that recently. Not identifying what was going on but suggesting that there was something up that would hopefully be resolved soon. He's such a competitor that I cannot imagine that he's just sitting idly by so I'm wondering how significant it is.


I'd rather move castillo and margot over Bradley. Bradley is by far the superior outfielder. While his offense wont be all that and a bag of chips, I don't see anything special from Margot. I'd move Castillo too and run with Betts Bradley and Benintendi. Trade margot and Castillo for pitching.

I'm not suggesting that we trade any one of them, but rather responding to the question as to whether JBJr is untouchable. He's not and the reason is that the gap between his tremendous defensive ability and the next guy(s) in line could be made up with their offense. It'll be interesting to see how they all develop.

Bo Sox Fan
09-02-2015, 05:45 PM
I would have to think that Castillo would be part of a Stanton package to Miami simply to lessen the blow a little bit financially since he's making $11 mil/per, not league minimum like Betts & Bradley (and Swihart, E-Rod, Bogaerts, Owens, etc)

Castillo being Cuban should also intrigue Miami's interest to help put a few fans in their seats. Would hate to add Moncada in that package to but, ahh we'll see.

papipapsmanny
09-02-2015, 06:33 PM
Marlins are not moving Stanton. No where in that article did it even hint towards that

Station 13
09-02-2015, 06:58 PM
wish list: Get rid of Hanley and Sandavol.

win red sox
09-02-2015, 07:24 PM
Marlins are not moving Stanton. No where in that article did it even hint towards that

probaly not going to happen this year or next, but when that salary jumps up to 25m and there still bottom dwellers i could see them moving him.

Bo Sox Fan
09-02-2015, 07:38 PM
wish list: Get rid of Hanley and Sandavol.

Just Sandoval for me. I wanna see Hanley at 1st and Shaw at 3rd before further judgement.

Shaw's bat and the way the ball just explodes off of it with ease is eerily similar to Chris Davis. I like that.

papipapsmanny
09-02-2015, 07:43 PM
Shaw is not Chris Davis, his potential is tops out on something a little better than Mitch Moreland (Maybe better than the bat, probably better defensively). Moreland is a solid player

RedSoxtober
09-04-2015, 02:03 PM
I highly doubt the pitcher's number in the rotation affects their performance. Porcello did bad, because he pitched bad, some bad luck, and injury, and he never was a 1/2 pitcher to begin with.


Sorry for beating a dead horse but this has stuck with me for a bit. I am really not sure that the point of comparison ever made sense. I don't care at all whether Porcello was a 1/2. For the sake of argument let's say he's AT BEST a #3. He dropped below replacement level for a long stretch this year and I agree that it was because he pitched poorly. The key question is WHY he pitched poorly: he altered his approach going to his four seam fastball up in the zone to get strikeouts. Why did a groundball, sinker/2-seam guy make that change? It's not surprising that he started taking the k-rate approach at the same time he signed the first $20M/yr deal for a SP. It's difficult not to recognize that the organization communicated to him an enormous responsibility based on the money. Whether or not his ceiling was every going to be beyond #3 is irrelevant; the organization told him that he was the guy to lead... and he immediately changed his approach.

It's the cause-effect relationship that I'm comparing when I connect Porcello to Carrasco and others. They may have much better "stuff". They may have a 1/2 type ceiling. Until we see them have to shoulder the responsibility of being the ace, however, we don't know how they will respond to it. We don't know if they'll try to be an ace and alter their approach as Porcello did when he was handed the responsibility.

Buchholz is another example. Some here championed him as a future ace and very clearly he has the "stuff" in terms of pitches. But when he was first given the responsibility last August he basically declined it. It took six months before he started outwardly acknowledging his need to lead. And, yet, he still sat on the sidelines for WEEKS beyond medical clearance before he re-engaged with his throwing program. He doesn't have the urgency or drive to be a #1 and he's shown (IMO) that he will never be more than a #2 because of his mental makeup.

Some guys are not cut out to be a #1 no matter how good their stuff. Putting that guy in the wrong role can hurt both the team and the player. I would rather minimize that risk while building the 2016 rotation by targeting at least one SP who has had #1 responsibilities and done well. I don't really care whether or not that is via trade or FA.

randyisgoinsolo
09-04-2015, 02:24 PM
What are your opinions on Tim Lincecum? Would you guys take him? I know he's out for the year but do you guys think he's worth signing as a 4th to 6th starter?

RedSoxtober
09-04-2015, 02:36 PM
^ No, we have too many internal candidates for those slots already. Besides, since 2011 the only things that he's led the league in are ER and WP.

Bo Sox Fan
09-04-2015, 03:35 PM
Shaw is not Chris Davis, his potential is tops out on something a little better than Mitch Moreland (Maybe better than the bat, probably better defensively). Moreland is a solid player

I never said he was Chris Davis or that his numbers would compare to Davis' my point was that he has a simple easy swing like Davis and that the ball flies off the bat... like Davis.

Bo Sox Fan
09-04-2015, 03:41 PM
What are your opinions on Tim Lincecum? Would you guys take him? I know he's out for the year but do you guys think he's worth signing as a 4th to 6th starter?

Absolutely not. We already have the American League version of Lincecum on the roster in Buchholz who basically lives on the DL and this organization can't get rid of him fast enough.

Mr. Undependable

win red sox
09-04-2015, 09:24 PM
buchholz made 18 starts this year and the last one was on 7/10, he will finish the year leading the pitching staff in fwar(tied for 21st in the league currently), i would make him the fifth starter next year and skip his spot in the rotation when feasible.

-Lavigne43-
09-04-2015, 11:40 PM
Clay never puts together consecutive good seasons. We need to clear spots out of the rotation to improve it with newcomers. You can't have Clay as the 5th starter when we already have so many mid/end of the rotation types, along with young pitchers. I also think Clay has had a bad influence on SP acquisitions, as the front office has avoided top of the line arms. They have relied way too heavily on Clay having a good season in the past.

Just looking at our current SP's

Buchholz - Can't trust to pitch entire season, performance completely unpredictable year to year, can be traded for value

Porcello- Disaster year, fingers crossed that he will turn it around, untradable, mid-rotation arm

Miley- 200 inning, bottom of the rotation type guy, can trade for decent players

EdRo- Very promising, but inconsistent like almost all young players. You don't rely heavily on these types of players having big seasons in the short term, they go to the bottom of the rotation, and if they perform consistently above that level it's simply a bonus

Owens - Shows some promise, but not ready with his command issues.

Kelly - Unpredictable and unreliable.

Clearly we have room for 1 new SP without getting rid of anyone, but then you just end up with New pitcher-Buchholz-Porcello-Miley-EdRo. I'm of the opinion that the rotation needs major reconstruction. If you really want to transform the rotation, get 3 new SP's. 1 front line guy. 1 borderline top of the rotation guy. 1 mid-rotation type that is better than Miley.

You leave the position players alone, other than minor moves. Focus all resources on pitching. The pitching staff has been one of the worst in the league 5 out of the last 6 seasons. Additionally, it should be no surprise that the one season our pitching was not lousy was the one season we made the playoffs in the last 6 seasons. We have not been in the top ten in runs allowed since 2009!! It's time to fix the problem. If we have a good pitching staff I guarantee we make the playoffs.

Bo Sox Fan
09-05-2015, 12:00 AM
^ I couldn't agree more with Lav's.

I also think the bullpen needs a complete overhaul to. There are just way to many random scrub arm "fillers" and not enough actual talented power arms.

The entire pitching staff from the top of the rotation through to the bottom of the bullpen needs a stick of dynamite dropped on it this winter while the young offense will get better within itself with just a little more experience.

-Lavigne43-
09-05-2015, 12:51 AM
Yeah, the entire pitching staff needs serious work. Bullpens are hard because everyone is volatile. Perhaps you can get some good relievers as part of trades of Buchholz/Miley. I like the strategy of searching for relievers that did not have great seasons, but they have high K rates and the potential of being dominant.

Our pitching staff has become total trash because for the last 5 years the front office has been too obsessed with position players. It's very frustrating to see our pitching do so poorly over the same time frame that pitching across MLB is dominating.

GrkGawdofWalkz
09-05-2015, 08:00 AM
Yeah, the entire pitching staff needs serious work. Bullpens are hard because everyone is volatile. Perhaps you can get some good relievers as part of trades of Buchholz/Miley. I like the strategy of searching for relievers that did not have great seasons, but they have high K rates and the potential of being dominant.

Our pitching staff has become total trash because for the last 5 years the front office has been too obsessed with position players. It's very frustrating to see our pitching do so poorly over the same time frame that pitching across MLB is dominating.

Definitely agree with this completely.

MDBostonFan
09-05-2015, 08:26 AM
I agree that a reconstruction of the pitching staff is in order.
Here is what I prefer in order of preference either by trade or FA signing.
This is based on players that may be available based on stories not any surprise trade not in the offering.

#1s
1. Gray
2. Greinke
3. Price
4. Cueto

#2-3's
5. Carrasco
6. Ross
7. Zimmerman
8. Salazar

I would consider one from each group a successful offseason. My preference of keepers from the original staff is done grudgingly. Probably:
E. Rod
Porcello
Miley

Can't trust Bucholtz, sell high on Kelly, Owens, Wright and Johnson in the wings.
If we can find takers on Porcello or Miley in a package for a closer or bullpen rebuild - fine.

Thoughts?

-Lavigne43-
09-05-2015, 11:34 AM
Just from that list, imagine signing Greinke and Zimmermann, while also trading for Salazar. Suddenly we are feeling very confident about our rotation with Greinke-Zimmermann-Salazar-Porcello-EdRo. If Porcello is mediocre and EdRo is inconsistent, we still have a good rotation. If just one of Porcello/EdRo has a good season, than our rotation will be one of the best in the league, and we definitely make the playoffs.

People act like this is a pipe dream, but we have never had a problem acquiring multiple high level position players at the same time. We can't be shy about doing the same on the pitching end, especially when we have so many cheap, young position players.

In terms of trading prospects, I have just 4 untouchables. Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, and Benintendi (he can't be traded until June anyways). All 4 of them just have incredible potential. Just think about where they will be on the top 100 lists in a couple years. I think all 4 could be consensus top 5 prospects in a couple years.

win red sox
09-05-2015, 12:51 PM
I thought they changed the rule in reference to trading drafting players until the following off-season due to the trea turner debacle.

Bo Sox Fan
09-05-2015, 12:54 PM
Sonny Gray? Put yourself in Billy Beanes shoes. He's probably gonna ask...

Swihart C
Margot OF
Owens SP
Kopech SP
Marrero IF

From a Sox perspective, tell Oakland to throw in recovering LHR (former closer) Sean Doolittle and pull the trigger. Add a meh prospect if that's what it takes.

Sign Jordan Zimmerman
- 6 years, $150 million

... Having let Buchholz walk, cap off the winter with a phone call to San Diego and get your shut down closer for the next 3 years.

To SD:
SP Brian Johnson
SP Joe Kelly (Sell high)
1B Allen Craig

To Bos:
CP Craig Kimbrel
IF Jed Gyorko

-----------------------------
The finished 'affordable' product:

Gray
Zimmerman
Rodriguez
Porcello
Miley

Kimbrel
Uehara
Doolittle (LH)
Tazawa
Escobar (LH)
Workman
Wright

randyisgoinsolo
09-05-2015, 01:20 PM
Sonny Gray? Put yourself in Billy Beanes shoes. He's probably gonna ask...

Swihart C
Margot OF
Owens SP
Kopech SP
Marrero IF

From a Sox perspective, tell Oakland to throw in recovering LHR (former closer) Sean Doolittle and pull the trigger. Add a meh prospect if that's what it takes.

Sign Jordan Zimmerman
- 6 years, $150 million

... Having let Buchholz walk, cap off the winter with a phone call to San Diego and get your shut down closer for the next 3 years.

To SD:
SP Brian Johnson
SP Joe Kelly (Sell high)
1B Allen Craig

To Bos:
CP Craig Kimbrel
IF Jed Gyorko

-----------------------------
The finished 'affordable' product:

Gray
Zimmerman
Rodriguez
Porcello
Miley

Kimbrel
Uehara
Doolittle (LH)
Tazawa
Escobar (LH)
Workman
Wright

You can never be too sure with Beane because remember he traded away a pretty much crown MVP Donaldson for pretty much crappy players in return. Who's to say he won't trade Gray for crap players again? Remember there was a report where the Red Sox offer a much better trade package for Donaldson than the Jays and Beane turned them down. I feel like DD will find ways to trade for Gray if he really wants him just like he did when he traded practically nothing for Price last season.

randyisgoinsolo
09-05-2015, 01:29 PM
I agree that a reconstruction of the pitching staff is in order.
Here is what I prefer in order of preference either by trade or FA signing.
This is based on players that may be available based on stories not any surprise trade not in the offering.

#1s
1. Gray
2. Greinke
3. Price
4. Cueto

#2-3's
5. Carrasco
6. Ross
7. Zimmerman
8. Salazar

I would consider one from each group a successful offseason. My preference of keepers from the original staff is done grudgingly. Probably:
E. Rod
Porcello
Miley

Can't trust Bucholtz, sell high on Kelly, Owens, Wright and Johnson in the wings.
If we can find takers on Porcello or Miley in a package for a closer or bullpen rebuild - fine.

Thoughts?

I think the most realistic rotation will be

1.Cueto
2. Gray
3. Ross if we get Kimbrel as well but Zimmermann will be the best choice if the Red Sox want to pony up the cash
4. Erod
5. Porcello

The only way I see Greinke on this list is if he opts out and doesn't want to sign with the Dodgers but we all know he's going to want to cash in and the Dodgers will outbid everyone for him so take him out that list.

win red sox
09-05-2015, 09:07 PM
I wonder if Alderson will look to move Harvey this off-season. sign price.

Price
Harvey
Erod
Porcello
Buchholz

Bo Sox Fan
09-06-2015, 10:10 PM
The Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in baseball the last 3 weeks and there 4 highest payed players (Hanley, Pedy, Buch) have had absolutely zero contribution to that success with the exception of a rare spot start here and there from Sandoval, the fourth.

Start moving that dead money around for greater needs, like arms.

bagwell368
09-07-2015, 01:15 PM
I think the most realistic rotation will be

1.Cueto
2. Gray
3. Ross if we get Kimbrel as well but Zimmermann will be the best choice if the Red Sox want to pony up the cash
4. Erod
5. Porcello


Really? No chance in the world IMO.

Bo Sox Fan
09-07-2015, 03:33 PM
I'm loving this new look Red Sox offence with the complete overhaul of youth. Lots of speed, base hits, walks, bunt, speed again, extra base hits, mix in some power.

I pledge to keep Torie Lovullo as manager next season with his small ball approach and move Farrell to the press boxes in some other capacity.

ruckus16969
09-07-2015, 04:09 PM
Ya to bad we didn't play this well all year

homie564
09-07-2015, 05:20 PM
Hey. Gotta keep the hope alive. 7 back of the 2nd wild card! Lol.

Not but really. Lovullo has a lot to like.

Bo Sox Fan
09-07-2015, 05:32 PM
I hadn't looked at the standings in weeks and assumed we were just a lock to finish last in the division without question but today it looks like 3rd place is all of a sudden a great possibility at this pace.

Weird. Now get some pitching.

homie564
09-07-2015, 05:35 PM
I hadn't looked at the standings in weeks and assumed we were just a lock to finish last in the division without question but today it looks like 3rd place is all of a sudden a great possibility at this pace.

Weird. Now get some pitching.

I know lol. I looked today and was shocked lol

Station 13
09-07-2015, 10:29 PM
With a better BP, we'd be in the WC race right now.

RedSoxtober
09-08-2015, 10:12 AM
With a better BP, we'd be in the WC race right now.

Forget the whole BP, just getting rid of Breslow and Ogando would be a big plus. In addition to 3 BS and 3 losses Breslow allowed more than 50% of inherited runners to score for most of the season (he just recently dipped under to 11/25). Ogando, of course, has the worst FIP of any pitcher in MLB. Tough to win when the first guys you go to when the SP runs into trouble are almost guaranteed to give it away.

-Lavigne43-
09-08-2015, 10:22 PM
What amazes me is how often Ogando and Breslow get used.

Station 13
09-09-2015, 09:44 AM
What amazes me is how often Ogando and Breslow get used.

Who else can they run out? Koji is done. Tazawa gets a lot of games too. Starters don't go deep, so the short bullpen gets lots of action.

I don't mind Ogando and Breslow gets lots of games now that the season is done with, might help the draft choices out.

BoSox47
09-09-2015, 09:57 AM
Dont really want to sell the farm on anyone but i would give up a good package for Sonny Gray.

or

Sign David Price
Sign A whole new bullpen

leave the lineup the same. Move Hanley to 1b and hope that Sandoval and hanley had career worsts this year and rebound.

RedSoxtober
09-09-2015, 10:12 AM
The most obvious question? Does Dombrowski's presence change the odds that Price will sign here, in either direction? After all, former GM Ben Cherington was on record about the pitfalls of signing pitchers in their 30s, but Dombrowski has shown more of a willingness to give the right players megadeals.

Red Sox fans hoping for an edge in the offseason pursuit of the former Cy Young winner will be disappointed.

"I'm not going anywhere because of a GM or because of a coach or because of anyone," Price said firmly. "No. It changes nothing."

That said, Price respects Dombrowski, the former Tigers president who acquired him at the 2014 trade deadline and shipped him away at this one.

"Dave's always around," Price said. "He's always in the clubhouse, always being personable with all the players. If you need anything from him, he's always around so you can ask him. It's cool."

Price particularly appreciates the way Dombrowski handled the trade deadline. While Detroit may have waffled on whether it was a buyer or seller until the final week, Price said he always knew where he stood.

"I was definitely kept in the loop with everything that was going on," he said. "They were completely honest with me, and I definitely appreciated that. He's definitely going to communicate. If you've got questions or problems, you can go talk to him and he'll straightforward with you. As a player, that's what you're always looking for."

When Price hits the market this winter, he could be in line for a $200 million payday. He has done nothing to hurt his value in Toronto, going 5-1 with a 2.15 ERA in seven starts. That's in marked contrast to someone like Royals right-hander Johnny Cueto, who has struggled with the transition to the American League, going 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA in eight starts.Boston Herald

RedSoxtober
09-09-2015, 10:20 AM
I'm going to be mildly surprised if we see Hanley in a Red Sox uniform on Opening Day next year. The sense that I get from him is that he checked out on the season a long time ago. Maybe you can roll with that in a lost season but it worries me going forward. I honestly wonder if he can be an effective DH; it's not that I doubt that his bat can come back but that I am uncertain if he has the ability to remain engaged in the game if he's not required to be on the field for 9 innings. I agree with the suggestion that some have made: if he does not appear at 1B before the end of the season he will not return.

On a more optimistic note, let's say he returns and gets into some action over the last two weeks of the season and manages not to hurt himself or anyone else while at 1B. If that happens then I think that he has the most value of the big contracts and becomes the easiest to move. Trading him and hoping that Shaw can continue to hit at some decent level for at least half of a season gives more flexibility towards building the pitching unit they'll need to compete next year.

I get why most people want to keep Hanley and move Sandoval. I just think it's more practical going the other way.

-Lavigne43-
09-09-2015, 07:36 PM
Boston Herald

That article goes about it a bit wrong. Price is obviously going to the highest bidder. Dombrowski's presence changes the odds of him signing here if he personally likes the idea of signing Price more than Cherington would have. He traded for Price and knows him on a more personal level (his work ethic, medical history, etc.) so it stands to reason that he would probably be more open to signing Price to a huge contract then Cherington would be.
I think Cherington said last offseason that they were willing to offer as much as they did to Lester because of their inside knowledge about him. Dombrowski has that kind of knowledge with Price.

-Lavigne43-
09-09-2015, 07:41 PM
Who else can they run out? Koji is done. Tazawa gets a lot of games too. Starters don't go deep, so the short bullpen gets lots of action.

I don't mind Ogando and Breslow gets lots of games now that the season is done with, might help the draft choices out.

It's not so much about now, but months ago when we were still kind of in the race. Breslow has been horrible for two season's now. I can't believe he was not DFA'ed back in May.

Bo Sox Fan
09-09-2015, 08:20 PM
It's not so much about now, but months ago when we were still kind of in the race. Breslow has been horrible for two season's now. I can't believe he was not DFA'ed back in May.

Breslow will soon be following in the footsteps of the guy who brought him in 2 years in a row as a free agent when no other team would touch him.

-Lavigne43-
09-09-2015, 09:46 PM
Castillo has looked really good in LF. He's looked great playing balls off the wall bare handed and holding guys to singles. I'm surprised, I thought he would struggle after seeing some of the bad mistakes hes made in RF.

bagwell368
09-10-2015, 06:59 AM
I'm going to be mildly surprised if we see Hanley in a Red Sox uniform on Opening Day next year. The sense that I get from him is that he checked out on the season a long time ago. Maybe you can roll with that in a lost season but it worries me going forward. I honestly wonder if he can be an effective DH; it's not that I doubt that his bat can come back but that I am uncertain if he has the ability to remain engaged in the game if he's not required to be on the field for 9 innings. I agree with the suggestion that some have made: if he does not appear at 1B before the end of the season he will not return.

On a more optimistic note, let's say he returns and gets into some action over the last two weeks of the season and manages not to hurt himself or anyone else while at 1B. If that happens then I think that he has the most value of the big contracts and becomes the easiest to move. Trading him and hoping that Shaw can continue to hit at some decent level for at least half of a season gives more flexibility towards building the pitching unit they'll need to compete next year.

I get why most people want to keep Hanley and move Sandoval. I just think it's more practical going the other way.

In 47 PA's at DH HR was: .295/.319/.682 - and he had better PA's than when I saw him hitting when playing LF. Between injury and ineffectiveness vs. LHP Ortiz may only get 100-110 games next year. Give Hanley 55 starts at DH, the rest at 1B/PH in '16 and he may do the job.

Panda does seem more game, but, he hasn't the offense to play 1B or DH, and his lower half is going to suffer serious injuries playing 3B as happens so often to larger heavier 3B into their 30's. His value is poor now, it'll be 100% salary eaten if he suffers a major injury - trade him first and gamble on Ramirez. Ramirez is a toad, but, he doesn't seem to infect the locker room, just has that "Manny" way of seeming like a ADD case. His second half was so bad he might be tougher to move than Panda.

j-bay
09-10-2015, 10:00 AM
Now the question is what to do with Kelly
1.Trade him
2.Make him a relief pitcher
3.Do a 6 man rotation.

RedSoxtober
09-10-2015, 11:19 AM
That article goes about it a bit wrong. Price is obviously going to the highest bidder. Dombrowski's presence changes the odds of him signing here if he personally likes the idea of signing Price more than Cherington would have. He traded for Price and knows him on a more personal level (his work ethic, medical history, etc.) so it stands to reason that he would probably be more open to signing Price to a huge contract then Cherington would be.

I think Cherington said last offseason that they were willing to offer as much as they did to Lester because of their inside knowledge about him. Dombrowski has that kind of knowledge with Price.
I don't disagree at all with what you're saying. The gist of the article was that DD's presence would not give the Sox any particular advantage. He's going to find the biggest contract he can... which, as you suggest, could be with the Sox with DD at the helm (and without someone with veto power looking over his shoulder).

The only real counter point that I might suggest is that he could choose the Sox over another team if all other aspects are (relatively) equal. Choosing between $200M and $202M could come down to a good relationship with the GM. That seems an extraordinarily unlikely scenario. I believe some team is going to blow away the field by offering an additional year or $1M-2M AAV that makes their offer significantly better.


In 47 PA's at DH HR was: .295/.319/.682 - and he had better PA's than when I saw him hitting when playing LF. Between injury and ineffectiveness vs. LHP Ortiz may only get 100-110 games next year. Give Hanley 55 starts at DH, the rest at 1B/PH in '16 and he may do the job.
I realize that his slash appears better at DH. IMO that suffers from typical SSS issues. Whether or not that is true, I also fear that the numbers are not representative because the PAs all came during 1-off scenarios (i.e., only once did he DH in consecutive games). My concern is that he has had a tendency to check out mentally and being away from the field may accelerate that.

One other observation on the PAs at DH: they seemed to follow a bigger trend. For example, in the week from 4/23-29 he hit .346/.357/.923 and his game at DH was right in the middle of that (2/5, 2HR, 4RBI). From 5/27-6/10 he hit .328/.375/.517 and his DH games were 6/15, 2HR, 3RBI. On the downside, his run up to the ASG was .214/.241/.464 and his shots at DH 4/12, 0HR, 0RBI. In the 7 games leading up to his disappearance (8/18-24) he hit .071/.103/.143 and went 0/4, 3K as the DH.


Panda does seem more game, but, he hasn't the offense to play 1B or DH, and his lower half is going to suffer serious injuries playing 3B as happens so often to larger heavier 3B into their 30's. His value is poor now, it'll be 100% salary eaten if he suffers a major injury - trade him first and gamble on Ramirez. Ramirez is a toad, but, he doesn't seem to infect the locker room, just has that "Manny" way of seeming like a ADD case. His second half was so bad he might be tougher to move than Panda.

To be clear, I don't prefer Panda to HanRam, I simply think that he is the more tradable asset and could net the Sox more coming back based on how much salary they are willing to take on. I am not sure that Panda's late-season surge is going to change much opinion of him on the trade market; his current contract already overpaid for that and the pattern is fairly well established in his career.

Station 13
09-10-2015, 12:31 PM
Now the question is what to do with Kelly
1.Trade him
2.Make him a relief pitcher
3.Do a 6 man rotation.

4. Forget this post.

j-bay
09-10-2015, 07:16 PM
4. Forget this post.

What would you do then. We are bringing in a #1, E-Rod is going no where. Neither is Owens unless we trade him for a better pitcher. Either way that is another spot taken. Miley is staying. Meanwhile Porcello is making a **** load of money so he is staying unless some idio.... I mean some team takes him.

RedSoxtober
09-11-2015, 07:53 PM
What would you do then. We are bringing in a #1, E-Rod is going no where. Neither is Owens unless we trade him for a better pitcher. Either way that is another spot taken. Miley is staying. Meanwhile Porcello is making a **** load of money so he is staying unless some idio.... I mean some team takes him.

Eh, I thought the response was a bit rude but your list of options is way too short.

Owens clearly has work to do on his control so he's far from a lock for the rotation. Likewise, Johnson was okay but we won't know for a while if his elbow is a ticking timebomb. Neither seems likely to be in the 2016 rotation except as #6-8 depth options.

Miley's contract is likely to be very attractive. He's serviceable as a #4-5 and the one guy in the rotation who pitched dead on his career stats with a good chance at hitting 200IP. $6M-7M for that is valuable and quite possibly more valuable in a trade than on the staff if the Sox bring in at least one SP at the top of the rotation.

Porcello is very likely to return and I do not mind that one bit. For all the "Porcelblow" type nicknames, he's performing well now that he's returned to being the pitcher that he was before coming to the Sox. Actually, I think that he's added a weapon -- getting more Ks with his 4-seamer elevated. He got carried away with it and that led to a lot of crappy results during the majority of the season. At any rate, he's here.

Ideally we have something like this:
Acquisition #1
Acquisition #2
Porcello
E-Rod
Miley or Kelly

Yeah, Clay is not in that list. I would much rather pick up his option and deal him. If we end up keeping him then I would suggest that he enters in the place of Acquisition #2 and both Miley and Kelly stick around. Most likely Miley gets the slot in the rotation because you'll need an innings eater with Buchholz' uncertainty and Kelly goes to the BP with a check to become a SP when Clay goes on the DL again.

Suffice it to say that many of the SP could go in a trade, not just Kelly.

ruckus16969
09-13-2015, 02:53 PM
For sure someone's getting traded I'd imagine that at least 2 of Owens, Johnson, Kelly, Milley, Buch get dealt. Possibly even Porcello.

I just really hope they don't trade anyone from our Offense unless it's HanRam or Panda. With the exception of Hanigan or Vasquez. This offense is exciting.

We should be able to get a very nice BP arm for Hanigan.

I'd like to see Buch traded for prospects. To replenish our farm after we trade for an Ace.

I'd hope they sign one too. My rotation would look like this next year


Price/Grenkie
Archer/Gray/Kluber/Salizer
ERod
Miley
Porcello/Kelly

Maybe the Royals want to take a chance on Kelly for Davis?

ruckus16969
09-13-2015, 03:00 PM
I'd like to hold on to Johnson and cash right in on Owens. Johnson would be great 6th guy to keep in Pawtucket.

Who do you guys think we can get if Owens was the headliner in a deal??

RedSoxtober
09-14-2015, 09:20 AM
I'm also ready to cash in on Owens, actually. IMO he's going to fight mechanics for the next few years as he physically matures. I believe both his current control issues and his emerging pattern of slow starts (which seem very strongly connected to re-establishing his delivery each year) are related to this. I am far less bullish on him establishing himself as a top starter and his days as a solid rotation contributor may be a few years away. If he has some market for his upside then I'd strongly consider cashing in on the short term.

Bo Sox Fan
09-14-2015, 10:05 AM
Owens has Andrew Miller written all over him. A big tall overhyped left handed failed starter turned reliever down the road.

Keep him if your willing to wait 5 years to figure it all out. I'd deal him this winter as well.

j-bay
09-14-2015, 01:08 PM
My opinion with Cueto is Pedro would have to get him to take a big discount. About 90 million is what they should offer. Cueto has some issues right now. Order in which way they should go.

Price
Gray
Zimmermann
Greinke
Cueto

homie564
09-14-2015, 02:35 PM
I just think Gray is flat out not going to happen. If he gets traded someone else is going to give up their team's left testicle for him. He's going to require AT MINIMUM a young MLB level player who is cost controlled (most likely a pitcher, but I guess it would depend on the player), 2 top prospects (likely 1 in the top 10-15 range, and another in the top 30-35 or so range), a mid range prospect (low top 100), and a low minors flier with upside. This equates to a few different possibilities for us...

MLB Level Player: Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Swihart, E-Rod, Owens (obviously Owens and Bradley would require highler level prospects with them)

Prospect 1: Moncada, Margot, Devers, Espinosa, Benintendi (if you're moving a higher end talent above, you'd look at Margot/Devers being the guy here, if not you'd have to believe it's one of the others)

Prospect 2: Margot, Devers, Johnson, Kopech, Guerra (again depends on the other players being included)

Prospect 3: Johnson, Kopech, Travis, Chavis, MAYBE a guy like Travis Shaw or Christian Vasquez if they want another MLB caliber player and depending on the package

Prospect 4: Trey Ball, Rijo, Allen, Basabe


Best case scenario you're walking out with something like

Owens
Vazquez
Margot
Devers
Basabe

for

Gray


and that in itself would be pretty unlikely for Oakland to accept.

ruckus16969
09-14-2015, 03:03 PM
I just think Gray is flat out not going to happen. If he gets traded someone else is going to give up their team's left testicle for him. He's going to require AT MINIMUM a young MLB level player who is cost controlled (most likely a pitcher, but I guess it would depend on the player), 2 top prospects (likely 1 in the top 10-15 range, and another in the top 30-35 or so range), a mid range prospect (low top 100), and a low minors flier with upside. This equates to a few different possibilities for us...

MLB Level Player: Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Swihart, E-Rod, Owens (obviously Owens and Bradley would require highler level prospects with them)

Prospect 1: Moncada, Margot, Devers, Espinosa, Benintendi (if you're moving a higher end talent above, you'd look at Margot/Devers being the guy here, if not you'd have to believe it's one of the others)

Prospect 2: Margot, Devers, Johnson, Kopech, Guerra (again depends on the other players being included)

Prospect 3: Johnson, Kopech, Travis, Chavis, MAYBE a guy like Travis Shaw or Christian Vasquez if they want another MLB caliber player and depending on the package

Prospect 4: Trey Ball, Rijo, Allen, Basabe


Best case scenario you're walking out with something like

Owens
Vazquez
Margot
Devers
Basabe

for

Gray


and that in itself would be pretty unlikely for Oakland to accept.

F that!! With the biggest F possible. I would consider those guys for Kershaw Trout Donaldson Goldy Harper maybe Kutch but that package is insane..

I highly doubt it would cost that much I mean that's 3 top 100 guys 4 if you count Owens and a very good catcher with 5 years of control.

Bo Sox Fan
09-14-2015, 03:42 PM
I'm getting the feeling that Harvey might be a more realistic option through trade while Boston also signs a co-ace via F.A.

Zimmer my man would be my #2 if we landed Harvey. No need to overspend on a $200+ mil Price or Cueto with M.H. already at the top.

ruckus16969
09-14-2015, 04:26 PM
Imagine Price Harvey Buch Porcello Erod with Kelly closing games.

Miley and Owens traded

Johnson and Wright and Hill chill in Pawtucket till injuries happen

j-bay
09-14-2015, 06:26 PM
I'm getting the feeling that Harvey might be a more realistic option through trade while Boston also signs a co-ace via F.A.

Zimmer my man would be my #2 if we landed Harvey. No need to overspend on a $200+ mil Price or Cueto with M.H. already at the top.

Don't know about Harvey. I think we would have to give just as for Harvey as we would Gray.

ruckus16969
09-14-2015, 09:59 PM
Harvey has less years of control. Injury issues. And he has a chip on his shoulder. Reminds me of Pap. Should be a little cheaper

randyisgoinsolo
09-14-2015, 10:09 PM
Harvey has less years of control. Injury issues. And he has a chip on his shoulder. Reminds me of Pap. Should be a little cheaper

I agree and Harvey also has Boras as his client which he's hard to negotiate with. Gray won't be that hard to acquired especially when Beane can go either side when it comes to trades he pretty much gave up Donaldson away for nothing. I think DD will figure out a way to get Gray if he really wants him.

homie564
09-15-2015, 12:10 AM
I just think Gray is flat out not going to happen. If he gets traded someone else is going to give up their team's left testicle for him. He's going to require AT MINIMUM a young MLB level player who is cost controlled (most likely a pitcher, but I guess it would depend on the player), 2 top prospects (likely 1 in the top 10-15 range, and another in the top 30-35 or so range), a mid range prospect (low top 100), and a low minors flier with upside. This equates to a few different possibilities for us...

MLB Level Player: Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Swihart, E-Rod, Owens (obviously Owens and Bradley would require highler level prospects with them)

Prospect 1: Moncada, Margot, Devers, Espinosa, Benintendi (if you're moving a higher end talent above, you'd look at Margot/Devers being the guy here, if not you'd have to believe it's one of the others)

Prospect 2: Margot, Devers, Johnson, Kopech, Guerra (again depends on the other players being included)

Prospect 3: Johnson, Kopech, Travis, Chavis, MAYBE a guy like Travis Shaw or Christian Vasquez if they want another MLB caliber player and depending on the package

Prospect 4: Trey Ball, Rijo, Allen, Basabe


Best case scenario you're walking out with something like

Owens
Vazquez
Margot
Devers
Basabe

for

Gray


and that in itself would be pretty unlikely for Oakland to accept.

F that!! With the biggest F possible. I would consider those guys for Kershaw Trout Donaldson Goldy Harper maybe Kutch but that package is insane..

I highly doubt it would cost that much I mean that's 3 top 100 guys 4 if you count Owens and a very good catcher with 5 years of control.

Just look at what the inferior, older, considerably more expensive, less talented Cole Hamels got. Honestly I'd probably be okay with the package I mentioned. I just think its cost a more premier player.

ruckus16969
09-15-2015, 05:29 PM
Hamels also is controlled for 5 years opposed to Harvey for 3

homie564
09-18-2015, 10:47 AM
Hamels also is controlled for 5 years opposed to Harvey for 3


you consider it positive that Hamels is controlled for 5 years? His 5 years is at a >20M salary. Gray's 3 years is going to be WAY less than that even in arbitration. Hamels isn't worth close to what Gray or even Harvey are.

btw, I want no part of Harvey. For soft pitchers we already have Buchholz.

ruckus16969
09-19-2015, 09:36 AM
Hamels will probably be worth 3 to 4 years of his contract. The guy is hardly ever injured. And gives you at least a a good #2 pitcher to count on.

I didn't want any part of him just because of the prospects it would have cost. But I'd say his contract is on par for what he does on the field. Or at least should be. Players in Texas just can't seem to stay healthy

RedSoxtober
09-21-2015, 09:45 AM
you consider it positive that Hamels is controlled for 5 years? His 5 years is at a >20M salary. Gray's 3 years is going to be WAY less than that even in arbitration. Hamels isn't worth close to what Gray or even Harvey are.
I've never been a fan of Hamels but I can objectively see that he's posted AT LEAST 4.6WAR/yr for the last seven years while Gray just posted his first season in that range. Having a 4.5WAR player under control for 5yrs is more valuable than 3yrs.


btw, I want no part of Harvey. For soft pitchers we already have Buchholz.

Harvey went down in 2013 with elbow problems and attempted rehab for six weeks before having surgery in Oct-2013. He missed 2014 recovering. This year the Mets chose to skip a start and limit his innings because they want to be careful of his arm in his first season back from TJ and because they have the luxury of resting guys going into the playoffs. I'd rather use those bullets in the playoffs too. And Harvey wasn't altogether on board with the decisions; he wanted to pitch.

This is a VERY different situation than Buchholz who missed a few months of a WS run because of a crick in his neck and essentially skipped the end of this season because he couldn't get his head right. In both scenarios the docs green-lighted him for baseball activities and he refused to go. He also declined the opportunity to step up and lead a young staff last year when all the tenured arms were traded away. Buchholz is soft because he doesn't have the will for it.

Norieaga
09-21-2015, 10:43 AM
Hamels is good value, he's a #2 on a very solid deal. If he hit free agency today I do believe he'd exceed his current deal.

papipapsmanny
09-23-2015, 08:01 PM
Much rather have Gray than Hamels going forward no question. He is not yet even 26

ruckus16969
09-26-2015, 04:43 PM
Would any team even be willing to take on Panda or HanRam??

I honestly can't see it unless we took on a bad contract or paid them via prospects.

I'd consider a deal for Ryan Howard for HanRam but we would probably have to find a 3rd team to take on HanRam. Maybe Seatle to use him as a DH with Cruz heading to LF?? Or ChiSox??

What teams need a DH??

Tampa - can't afford him
Minnesota - probably don't want to pay
Cleveland - maybe?? Big maybe
Chicago could use a big bat to hit with Abrue probably not gonna want to pay
Oakland - never gonna pay him
Toronto - no money/
Baltimore - would be a great fit but they probably don't want to pay
Kansas - no money


Best fit I can see would be Baltimore but I doubt they will pony up players/prospects AND money to pay him.

Panda would probably be even harder to trade and harder to replace unless we signed Davis to play 3B and I think he is better off in LF or 1B.

Our FO really has their work cut for them

ruckus16969
09-26-2015, 04:59 PM
What's up with Rich Hill?? Is freakin guy for real?? Will he be on our roster next year??

The guys stuff is pretty incredible. The moment is insane.

Bo Sox Fan
09-26-2015, 08:07 PM
Enjoy the moment because at the end of the day it's only Rich Hill and all good things come to an end.

I would, however, like to know who reinvented him down in the minors. Sign that guy up as a Red Sox pitching consultant of some sort.

randyisgoinsolo
09-27-2015, 01:14 AM
Would any team even be willing to take on Panda or HanRam??

I honestly can't see it unless we took on a bad contract or paid them via prospects.

I'd consider a deal for Ryan Howard for HanRam but we would probably have to find a 3rd team to take on HanRam. Maybe Seatle to use him as a DH with Cruz heading to LF?? Or ChiSox??

What teams need a DH??

Tampa - can't afford him
Minnesota - probably don't want to pay
Cleveland - maybe?? Big maybe
Chicago could use a big bat to hit with Abrue probably not gonna want to pay
Oakland - never gonna pay him
Toronto - no money/
Baltimore - would be a great fit but they probably don't want to pay
Kansas - no money


Best fit I can see would be Baltimore but I doubt they will pony up players/prospects AND money to pay him.

Panda would probably be even harder to trade and harder to replace unless we signed Davis to play 3B and I think he is better off in LF or 1B.

Our FO really has their work cut for them

Maybe to San Diego for James Shields?

j-bay
09-27-2015, 02:24 PM
Maybe to San Diego for James Shields?

No to Shields unless we trade Miley or Porcello for Kimbrel.

RedSoxtober
09-27-2015, 05:20 PM
Would any team even be willing to take on Panda or HanRam??

I honestly can't see it unless we took on a bad contract or paid them via prospects.


HanRam could move to a team that believes that he can/will bounce back. He was a force in April before he hurt his shoulder. I'm not sure if that's likely but it's possible.

filihok
09-27-2015, 08:27 PM
Would any team even be willing to take on Panda or HanRam??
A team like the Brewers might be interested. They probably aren't going to be competitive next year and they have nothing at 3B since they moved Aramis Ramirez (Elian Herrera was the starting 3B most of the second half).

If the Red Sox payed down a quite significant part of either contract the Brewers could let Hanley or Pandoval play 3rd for them next season and hope they bounce back enough to be traded for more than the basically nothing they'd be willing to give up to get them.

Bo Sox Fan
09-27-2015, 11:20 PM
The Angels quietly have a load of money from their billion dollar tv deal a few years ago and desperately need some offence going into this offseason at any position other than CF & 1B. Hanley would make sense there as a regular DH, spot starter 3B/SS/LF.

For whatever reason, I get a feeling Miami could consider Sandoval just to show their fan base they're trying. They were the next team to acquire Miley had we not, so maybe we can put some money and prospects on top of all that to complete something. They need a pitcher.

filihok
09-28-2015, 05:43 AM
The Angels quietly have a load of money from their billion dollar tv deal a few years ago and desperately need some offence going into this offseason at any position other than CF & 1B. Hanley would make sense there as a regular DH, spot starter 3B/SS/LF.

For whatever reason, I get a feeling Miami could consider Sandoval just to show their fan base they're trying. They were the next team to acquire Miley had we not, so maybe we can put some money and prospects on top of all that to complete something. They need a pitcher.
The first step in the process of moving Hanley/Pandoval is to figure out their current worth on the market.
What would you give them if they were free agents right now?

Both are players with established track records who were terrible this season.
So, maybe they get something like 2/$20 or 3/$27 (feel free to put your own number here)

To trade them, then, the Red Sox would have to pay all but that amount and then expect 0 in the way of value coming back.

Bo Sox Fan
09-28-2015, 09:47 AM
^ Hardly

Prince Fielder had a season like Hanley's / Pablo's and missed significant time with injury before being flipped for Kinsler. Fielder's contract was an 8 year commitment instead of half that for Hanley / Pablo.

Nobody has a clue who could be interested in Hanley because he never gave any other team a chance to sign him last winter other than Boston.

Time will tell, but I'd deal Sandoval if I had the choice.

RedSoxtober
09-28-2015, 11:39 AM
The first step in the process of moving Hanley/Pandoval is to figure out their current worth on the market.
What would you give them if they were free agents right now?

Both are players with established track records who were terrible this season.
So, maybe they get something like 2/$20 or 3/$27 (feel free to put your own number here)

To trade them, then, the Red Sox would have to pay all but that amount and then expect 0 in the way of value coming back.

This is a pretty decent ballpark. I've heard the $10M AAV suggested elsewhere.

RedSoxtober
09-28-2015, 03:11 PM
Those players (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Bradley, Shaw, Owens and Rodriguez) will all make something near the big league minimum next year. If the Sox retain them, then they’ll have the freedom to consider just about any free agent they want this offseason, knowing that a $25 million or even $30 million-a-year investment in a David Price or Johnny Cueto can fit into a roster that is otherwise so efficiently, and inexpensively, constructed. If they trade such talents, then they’ll be able to get considerable value for any of them based on the demonstrated ability to excel in the big leagues.

When one evaluator examined the situation that Dave Dombrowski was inheriting in Boston, with a core of potential young stars representing a marked departure from a Detroit organization that appeared like it might face some years of a rebuild, he deemed the Sox’ situation a “holy grail” of opportunity. That’s a bit of an exaggeration, since there’s nothing guaranteed by young talent, but the sense of possibility is considerable.Alex Speier

Bo Sox Fan
09-28-2015, 06:12 PM
At this point Washington might come begging Boston for Hanley or Porcello this winter just to rid themselves of Papelbon.

We don't have a closer and need all the bullpen help we can get...

ruckus16969
09-29-2015, 03:29 AM
You want Pap coming here to disrupt what these kids are doing.

We have a team of players that are playing great cause they love the game. Pap wore out his welcome here. We don't need him grabbing lil Mookie by the Throat.

Storan on the other hand would be a great start to fix the pen

The Nats won't be able to trade Paps. He will be released. And probably ultimately signing later in the year.
How is some relief pitcher who was traded for a month ago going to call out the best player on that team. The best player in the NL. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats trade Pap to North Korea for egg rolls

papipapsmanny
09-29-2015, 09:11 AM
I'd Trade Porcello and someone like Marrero for Papelbon easily. Porcello hinders the potential of the rotation/team with his performance and contract. Papelbon can be useful and if not release him in June and let ownership suck up an 8 million dollar hit the rest of the way.

I'd like to trade Johnson, Guerra, Margot, and Kopech for Carlos Carrasco

I pick up Buchholz's option. Whether you like it or not you aren't finding a pitcher with his capabilities anywhere else for just 13 million.

Trade Hanley and cash for a bullpen piece (probably needs to be an AL team for the DH)

Carrasco
Buchholz
E-Rod
Owens
Miley

I think we would have to package 1 of E-Rod/Owens along with some combo of Travis, Chavis, JBJ, and Shaw for another good SP

The goal is to have Buchholz the 3, E-Rod/Owens the 4 and Miley the 5 and you have yourself a pretty good rotation

Bo Sox Fan
09-29-2015, 09:58 AM
I'd Trade Porcello and someone like Marrero for Papelbon easily. Porcello hinders the potential of the rotation/team with his performance and contract. Papelbon can be useful and if not release him in June and let ownership suck up an 8 million dollar hit the rest of the way.

I'd like to trade Johnson, Guerra, Margot, and Kopech for Carlos Carrasco

I pick up Buchholz's option. Whether you like it or not you aren't finding a pitcher with his capabilities anywhere else for just 13 million.

Trade Hanley and cash for a bullpen piece (probably needs to be an AL team for the DH)

Carrasco
Buchholz
E-Rod
Owens
Miley

I think we would have to package 1 of E-Rod/Owens along with some combo of Travis, Chavis, JBJ, and Shaw for another good SP

The goal is to have Buchholz the 3, E-Rod/Owens the 4 and Miley the 5 and you have yourself a pretty good rotation

Porcello + Marrero for Paps is exactly what I'm thinking with Zimmerman and Desmond leaving for free agency.

It's kind of a "kill 2 birds with 1 stone" for both organizations kinda deal. Everyone fills immediate needs and we get a little more cash relief.

j-bay
09-29-2015, 09:59 AM
The Red Sox have given Hanley Ramirez permission to begin his offseason rehab process at his home in Fort Lauderdale, which ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes feels is a curious and perhaps telling move from the team. While Ramirez has been shut down for 2015 due to a shoulder injury, Edes notes that the likes of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa all remained with the club despite being shut down with past and current injuries in order to keep supporting their teammates. It could just be a case of bad optics, or it could be a hint that the Red Sox don’t have Ramirez in their future plans and will try to trade him this winter.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/al-east-notes-hanley-ellsbury-orioles-moore.html

RedSoxtober
09-29-2015, 01:38 PM
Porcello + Marrero for Paps is exactly what I'm thinking with Zimmerman and Desmond leaving for free agency.

It's kind of a "kill 2 birds with 1 stone" for both organizations kinda deal. Everyone fills immediate needs and we get a little more cash relief.

Since returning from the DL Porcello has run off 5 quality starts in six outings with a 2.98ERA and 42K/9BB/42.1IP. He's averaged 7IP per start . He shouldn't be dealt too quickly and certainly not for Paps IMO.

As for Buchholz, I no longer care what anyone thinks of his abilities. Considering he's got only options left this year should have been approached like a walk year for him (he even mentioned it when he hit the DL) but he's had no more motivation than any other season. He has consistently shown no motivation to be a winner. Pick up the option and deal him; $13M for 3 months is far too expensive.

papipapsmanny
09-29-2015, 01:54 PM
Porcello at his best is marginally better than than what Miley did this year. I don't care what he has done recently, he is no where near worth 20+ million a year.

If in some dream world the nats offered Papelbon for Porcello. You would take that and run

Say what you want but Buchholz in 113 innings posted a higher WAR value this year, than any season in Porcello's career.

RedSoxtober
09-29-2015, 01:56 PM
You want Pap coming here to disrupt what these kids are doing.

We have a team of players that are playing great cause they love the game. Pap wore out his welcome here. We don't need him grabbing lil Mookie by the Throat.

Storan on the other hand would be a great start to fix the pen

The Nats won't be able to trade Paps. He will be released. And probably ultimately signing later in the year.
How is some relief pitcher who was traded for a month ago going to call out the best player on that team. The best player in the NL. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats trade Pap to North Korea for egg rolls

Let's not act like Harper is a saint. He's an arrogant little prick IMO. His entire path into MLB has been an "all about me" show. He's a long, long way from being a player like Trout who makes the TEAM better.

FWIW... some context might help. Harper called out Paps in the media for hitting Machado who showboated an earlier HR. Maybe you think the kid was right but at the very least isn't that a clubhouse conversation (unless you're Bobby Valentine)? What Paps did was blast the kid for not hustling on a PA with the scored tied 4-4. It's not the first time it's happened to Harper either. It's unfortunate that it happened after Harper called out Paps... but the kid might have seen it coming too. Whatever the case, the players support what Paps did though theyy regret the timing of it. (http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/jonathan-papelbon-bryce-harper-fight-current-ex-players-support-pitcher-long-time-coming-092715?bc_em=andyvanasse@gmail.com&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter)

papipapsmanny
09-29-2015, 02:03 PM
Also I wouldn't made trading JBJ as part of a package for a good SP if some team values him a lot.

If that happens I would sign someone like Colby Rasmus to a 3 year deal to play LF

Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Bogaerts
Shaw
Rasmus
Castillo
Sandoval
Swihart/Vazquez

If Ortiz power numbers fall (say to like 28 HRs). We probably don't have a 30+ HR guy. But I see potential for a lot of 17+ HR guys in the lineup.

I'm figuring Bogaerts will eventually get there. Maybe he never hits 30 but there is no reason why he can't eventually hit 18+ fairly consistently .

Fairly confident that over a full season Shaw could hit 22-28 HRs

Lot of Lefties in the lineup though

Bo Sox Fan
09-29-2015, 08:53 PM
I'm still intrigued in what the Marlins plan is going into this winter. Last I heard they wanted to reload there farm system because all their teams from single A up through to the majors are in dead last place.

To Boston:
SP Jose Fernandez
LF Giancarlo Stanton

To Miami:
C. Blake Swihart
OF Rusney Castillo
3B Rafael Devers
SS Javier Guerra
SP Michael Kopech

Live with Hanley and Pablo on the inside corners.

1. R Betts RF
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. R Stanton LF
4. L Ortiz DH
5. R Bogaerts SS
6. R Ramirez 1B
7. L Sandoval 3B
8. R Vazquez C
9. L Bradley Jr. CF

randyisgoinsolo
09-29-2015, 10:00 PM
I'm still intrigued in what the Marlins plan is going into this winter. Last I heard they wanted to reload there farm system because all their teams from single A up through to the majors are in dead last place.

To Boston:
SP Jose Fernandez
LF Giancarlo Stanton

To Miami:
C. Blake Swihart
OF Rusney Castillo
3B Rafael Devers
SS Javier Guerra
SP Michael Kopech

Live with Hanley and Pablo on the inside corners.

1. R Betts RF
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. R Stanton LF
4. L Ortiz DH
5. R Bogaerts SS
6. R Ramirez 1B
7. L Sandoval 3B
8. R Vazquez C
9. L Bradley Jr. CF

Like that will ever happen, I only see that in MLB the Show. Stanton is owed a lot of money for the next 12 years by the way and I think the Marlins will probably ask for Moncada on top of all those other prospects.

Bo Sox Fan
10-01-2015, 09:24 PM
Allen Craig should really consider quitting the game of baseball altogether and try another sport, like curling in Canada.

He's so terrible the Phillies would rather keep Ryan Howard than swap him for Craig. What a God aweful excuse for a player. Not even Papelbon could choke him into caring, lol.

RedSoxtober
10-02-2015, 09:31 AM
Craig has more K in 28PA in Sep/Oct than Betts had in any of the months from May thru August (90+ PA/mo).

-Lavigne43-
10-03-2015, 12:33 AM
It's crazy how quick he went from being a very good offensive player, to hitting like a pitcher. I still remember how terrifying he was in the World Series.

MDBostonFan
10-03-2015, 11:04 AM
I've heard a lot of talk about not trading any of our young prospects and just sign free agents for SP and BP. I took a look at the existing FA list and have suggestions. Considering era, age and probable investment.

SP: Greinke is not happening. Price will be too much for too long. Cueto has just taken himself off the list with his performance in KC/AL. Samardzija seems too inconsistent. Lackey interesting, but too old. Leake? Kasmir, no. Gallardo? Iwakuma 34 yrs old? Anderson? Chen? I think Zimmerman, (29) 3.66 era 13-10 is the best FA option right now. Living in MD I have seen him perform - he was the best pitcher on the Nats in 2014 and a change of scenery from this year's clown show would be good for him.

RP: The top three are Clippard (30) 2.96 4-4, Soria (31) 2.60 3-1, and O'Day (32) 1.54 6-2. I would sign Soria and O'Day.

Roster: We need to part ways with a few people.

Ramirez: .249, bad everything, trade him to a team in need of a DH and pay ½ his salary. Just get rid of him. Classic addition by subtraction.
Machi: 5.12 era When the Cardinals give up everyone should.
Workman: 5.11 era Maybe someone would take him?
Breslow: 4.22 era Not too bad but done here.
Cook: 18.69 era??
Barnes: 5.62 era Should have trading him when his value was higher.
Ogando: 4.06 FA anyway
Craig: .141 avg. This is just a sad story - depressing - same lesson as Machi.
Leon: .176 avg. Pawtucket or Worcester?
Hanigan: .247 avg. maybe the only valuable get – but only after Vasquez is cleared.
Sandoval: I don’t see anyone taking a flyer on him so I have him still. Big fat bummer.

I would sign Chris Davis .258 and 45 hrs. to add thump to the lineup and to replace Ramirez as the replacement for Ortiz once his run ends. Again, living in MD I’ve seen this guy play and he is the best HR threat there is – don’t mind weakening the Orioles and keeping him away from the Yankees (rumor) too.

Rotation:
1. (R) Zimmerman (29) 3.66 - 13-10
2. (R) Bucholtz (31) 3.26 - 7-7 If we can sign and trade for another SP or Chapman, in a package deal do it.
3. (L) Rodriguez (22) 3.85 - 10-6 Hope he doesn’t suffer a sophomore slump
4. (R) Porcello (26) 5.02 - 9-14 I was surprised to see that he is younger than Kelly and Miley – I’d give him some time. Imagine if they waited and what he would have signed for now?
5. (L) Miley (28) 4.46 - 11-11 Not a bad 5th starter

Depth in case Bucholtz breaks his vagina or we can package him out.
6. (L) Hill (35) 1.55 era - 2-1 Is he for real? Need to sign. 35 years Old.
7. (L) Owens (23) 3.84 – 4-3 Don’t see him more than a 3-4.
8. (R) Wright (31) 4.09 - 5-4 Looked good in a small sample.

Bullpen:
(R) Uehara (40) 2.23 Closer for now
(R) Soria (31) 2.60 Closer for later?
(R) O’Day (32) 1.54 He’ll probably be the most sought after bullpen guy.
(R) Kelly (27) 4.82 Could be 5th starter but I like him here. Potential closer?
(R) Tazawa (29) 4.14 Needs rest to be effective
(L) Ross Jr. (26) 3.86 Surprising era with him
(L) Layne (30) 3.99 Needs to break out, older than I thought
Too many righties but with all the dumps maybe a lefty reliever can be had.
Again, this scenario is about FA’s and no trades. (But I'd really like Chapman or Kimbrel though.)

Batting:
1. (R) CF Betts (22) .297 avg. Fun to watch everyday.
2. (R) 2B Pedroia (32) .297 avg. Wouldn’t trade him anyway.
3. (R) SS Bogaerts (23) .322 avg. The future face of the franchise.
4. (L) DH Ortiz (39) .272 avg. 36 HRs How long can he do this?
5. (L) 1B Davis (29) .258 avg. 45 HRs Nice middle of the order.
6. (R) LF Castillo (28) .262 avg. Looking for more pop.
7. (S) C Swihart (23) .275 avg. Really like his second half.
8. (R) 3B Sandoval (29) .245 avg. Can’t see ownership eating 2 salaries.
9. (L) RF Bradley (25) .250 avg. Is it real? Like his defense/arm in RF Fenway.

Bench:
1. (L) OF/IF Holt (27) .281 avg. MVBP (Most Valuable Bench Player)
2. (L) 1B/3B Shaw (25) .276 avg. Nice pop off the bench. Is he real?
3. (R) IF Rutledge (26) .290 avg. Turned out to be a nice pick-up.
4. (R) C Vasquez (25) .223 avg. Hope he is well healed. Valuable in a package trade?

NOTE:
Without Ortiz the average age of the lineup is - 24.15.
Average age of the rotation - 28.13.
Average age of the bullpen – 30.71 – without Uehara – 29.16

That’s a pretty good, young, team without trading away any prospects. That leaves you open to deal from a position of strength during the year. I think the defense shown late in the season will make a lot of pitchers look better than they are.

Not a bad thought. Remember these are just FA signings.
I don't think Trader Dom will do this - he has an itchy trading finger.

Thoughts?

Rivera
10-03-2015, 01:10 PM
I don't see any real changes to the everyday line up to be honest. I think the every day players will pretty much remain the same

It's all about upgrading the pitching

ruckus16969
10-03-2015, 06:08 PM
Ya at least 1 SP and at least BP arms would be great.

If you can trade Castillo for a couple solid BP arms or part of a package for anAce then I would love Davis in LF for 3/4 years then move him to 1B or DH.

He could get 130/140 RBIs hitting in front of Betts Bogarts Pedey easly.

Oakmont_4
10-05-2015, 12:39 PM
Sign Grienke or Price.

I don’t care which, they are both proven in the AL and TOTR pitchers we desperately need. I’m past the point of caring about years or salaries. I understand teams want the contracts to “make sense” but none of these top end pitching contracts make sense in the final years and it’s getting to the point where our “no long term deals for older pitchers” is hurting the product on the field. My new logic…If you win 1 WS with that pitcher, the revenues from that alone will pay off the “bad years” of that contract. I think Dombrowski understands this as well

Trade:
BOS TRADES
3B Pablo Sandoval (eat as much of the contract as it takes)
LHP Brian Johnson

SD TRADES
CP Craig Kimbrel
SP James Shields

SD was in on Sandoval last year so we know they’re atleast somewhat interested, especially if we eat a good portion of his contract. It has also been rumored they are trying to move both Kimbrel and Shields to ditch the money of their contracts. They unload 2 unwanted players and their contracts, get a guy they like for cheap AND get a good but not great pitcher who’s MLB ready.

Trade:
BOS TRADES
C Blake Swihart
RP Pat Light
2B Wendell Rio

OAK TRADES
SP Sonny Grey
RP Sean Doolittle

Swihart had a nice first season, but we have Vazquez coming back. I’d love to keep Swihart but getting talented pitching is no easy task. Grey is proven, controllable and young.

Trade:
BOS TRADES
DH Hanley Ramirez
SP Clay Bucholtz

BAL TRADES
Package of mid tier/low end prospects or a BP arm

Essentially this is a salary/player dump with some upside. Baltimore is losing their power in Davis when he departs via Free Agency. Hanley can slide in at DH or 1B (if they’re feeling risky). Clay will be on a reasonable 1 year deal where he can prove himself on a team that needs some pitching help. Baltimore won’t have to give up much, just take on the salaries.




Rotation
1. Price/Grienke
2. Sonny Gray
3. James Shields
4. Rick Porcello
5. E-Rod
5a. Henry Owens
5b. Steven Wright

Bullpen

LS - Doolittle
LR – Wade Miley
LR – Joe Kelly
7th – Koji
SU – Junichi Tazawa
CP – Craig Kimbrel

This would be a HUGE upgrade over our pitching in 2015. And we really don’t give up much. I think we actually gain more when factoring additions by subtractions (Pablo and Hanley).

I would then sign Chris Davis to a 2-3 year deal. Higher dollars per year for shorter term, whatever it takes.

Which leaves a lineup of

OF Mookie Betts
2B Dustin Pedroia / Brock Holt
SS Xander Boegarts
DH David Ortiz
1B Chris Davis
OF Rusney Castillo
3B Devin Merrero /Yoan Moncada
OF Jackie Bradley Jr / Travis Shaw
C Christian Vazquez / Hanigan

devildogdco
10-05-2015, 01:54 PM
really can't see Kimbrel for Brian Johnson, Shields and Pablo wash each other out.

celticsman2009
10-05-2015, 04:52 PM
Keep swihart. trade Devers, Margot and Castillo for someone. Keep Swihart and Benintendi, Benintendi, Bradley, Betts outfield is legit.

Bo Sox Fan
10-05-2015, 08:49 PM
DD commented about the players on this team (offensively) being to similar when he first stepped into power. Here's a new one while the Rockies are swapping big contracts to collect prospects.

To Colorado:
SP Rick Porcello
OF Manuel Margot
3B Michael Chavis

To Boston:
LF Carlos Gonzalez

1. R Betts RF
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. L Ortiz DH
4. R Bogaerts SS
5. L Gonzalez LF
6. R Ramirez 1B
7. S Sandoval 3B
8. R Vazquez C
9. L Bradley Jr. CF

L Holt UTL
L Shaw 1B/3B
R Castillo OF
R Hanigan C

celticsman2009
10-06-2015, 09:43 AM
DD commented about the players on this team (offensively) being to similar when he first stepped into power. Here's a new one while the Rockies are swapping big contracts to collect prospects.

To Colorado:
SP Rick Porcello
OF Manuel Margot
3B Michael Chavis

To Boston:
LF Carlos Gonzalez

1. R Betts RF
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. L Ortiz DH
4. R Bogaerts SS
5. L Gonzalez LF
6. R Ramirez 1B
7. S Sandoval 3B
8. R Vazquez C
9. L Bradley Jr. CF

L Holt UTL
L Shaw 1B/3B
R Castillo OF
R Hanigan C


If you're trading with the Rockies, I want Arenado.

RedSoxtober
10-06-2015, 11:27 AM
DD commented about the players on this team (offensively) being to similar when he first stepped into power. Here's a new one while the Rockies are swapping big contracts to collect prospects.

To Colorado:
SP Rick Porcello
OF Manuel Margot
3B Michael Chavis

To Boston:
LF Carlos Gonzalez

From the Rox perspective, do you think that Margot+Chavis is compelling enough to absorb an additional $3M+ in salary over the next two years AND $40M+ over the two after that? Seems a little doubtful. At least Porcello's GB style would fit their needs I guess.

From the Sox perspective, if this very compelling with Gonzalez playing away from Coors?
Home: .324/.382/.604
Road: .255/.310/.441

Bo Sox Fan
10-06-2015, 06:28 PM
There are alot more hitter parks in the AL compared to the NL, especially in the AL East. I just see CarGo as an easier, more realistic power bat to acquire compared to the names of Stanton, Goldschmidt and to a lesser extent, Votto.

Castillo is a nice left fielder for a small market club, I just think Boston can do better. Especially offensively from that position.

ruckus16969
10-06-2015, 07:15 PM
Cargo could be nice or he could be Carl Crawford 2.0

Just more injury prone.

I'm with on the lets trade Castillo club though. I'd go hard after as many BP pieces possible.

Miley is not going to the BP imo

Kelly would be great BP piece though

ruckus16969
10-06-2015, 07:19 PM
I say we trade for kimbrel and shields as well as chapman then sign Oday and sign price or grienke

ruckus16969
10-06-2015, 07:22 PM
We have to trade Miley and Kelly for prospects to sent to San Diego and Cincy

We need to stay away from Sonny Gray

Bo Sox Fan
10-06-2015, 07:58 PM
Cargo could be nice or he could be Carl Crawford 2.0

Just more injury prone.

I'm with on the lets trade Castillo club though. I'd go hard after as many BP pieces possible.

Miley is not going to the BP imo

Kelly would be great BP piece though

I have no idea how you get Carl Crawford (4HR's in '15) to compare with Gonzalez (40HR's in '15) and I won't even bother with your latter 2 posts.

RedSoxtober
10-07-2015, 10:09 AM
I say we trade for kimbrel and shields as well as chapman then sign Oday and sign price or grienke
We're getting three of the top CL AND arguably the top SP on the market AND a solid 2/3 guy? Someone needs a cold shower.


There are alot more hitter parks in the AL compared to the NL, especially in the AL East. I just see CarGo as an easier, more realistic power bat to acquire compared to the names of Stanton, Goldschmidt and to a lesser extent, Votto.

Castillo is a nice left fielder for a small market club, I just think Boston can do better. Especially offensively from that position.

The splits are pretty extreme so I'll remain skeptical. It's also worth noting that his trend has been towards weaker production on the road (a common part of "The Coors Effect"). That trend COULD stabilize as he gets away from regular doses of high altitude but there's no guarantee.

EDIT: I should say also that I'm not opposed to breaking up the trio that finished the season in the OF. I'd be willing to explore a deal involving either JBJ or Castillo. I'm just not keen on spending that much value on CarGo.

His line at Chase Field (.265/.331/.500) is not bad and that's often a fair comparison to Fenway in many ways. That's just not a line that I'd give up Porcello, Margot, and Chavis for.

RedSoxtober
10-07-2015, 10:11 AM
I'm sure this will be heartbreaking but Jeff Bianch and Jemile Weeks both refused a minor league assignment on Monday in order to become FA.

homie564
10-07-2015, 10:32 AM
We have to trade Miley and Kelly for prospects to sent to San Diego and Cincy

We need to stay away from Sonny Gray

You want Shields but not Gray?

ruckus16969
10-07-2015, 05:38 PM
I don't like Shields more than Gray. I just think they may swap bad contracts.

I like Gray. I just wonder if he would be as good in the AL east. And if he isn't as good we loose allot of talent that we would have had to send over there. Shields by himself wouldn't be what I would hope to see. But he would make a great #2/3. He is also proven in this division.

ruckus16969
10-07-2015, 05:39 PM
We're getting three of the top CL AND arguably the top SP on the market AND a solid 2/3 guy? Someone needs a cold shower.



The splits are pretty extreme so I'll remain skeptical. It's also worth noting that his trend has been towards weaker production on the road (a common part of "The Coors Effect"). That trend COULD stabilize as he gets away from regular doses of high altitude but there's no guarantee.

EDIT: I should say also that I'm not opposed to breaking up the trio that finished the season in the OF. I'd be willing to explore a deal involving either JBJ or Castillo. I'm just not keen on spending that much value on CarGo.

His line at Chase Field (.265/.331/.500) is not bad and that's often a fair comparison to Fenway in many ways. That's just not a line that I'd give up Porcello, Margot, and Chavis for.


I had a lil bit to drink when I wrote that lol. Nice fantasy though. DD does like his power closers though.

ruckus16969
10-07-2015, 05:45 PM
I have no idea how you get Carl Crawford (4HR's in '15) to compare with Gonzalez (40HR's in '15) and I won't even bother with your latter 2 posts.

I wasn't really talking about his production. I just meant if he gets hurt and takes along time to heal the media here would get all over him. And I wonder if he could handle the pressure.

I would love to take a shot on Cargo. Just there is risk/reward thing as with any player just more risk with him I'd think. Not to mention his home road splits are crazy. I'd still take a chance on him though.

I'd rather just sign Davis to play LF and some 1B if it where my choice. We keep or use our talent for other needs

Bo Sox Fan
10-07-2015, 07:54 PM
Maybe I'm reading between the lines a little too deep here, but why would DD go public in wanting Hanley to lose 15 pounds to be more "athletic" next season while Pablo gets a pass? I've never heard of a 1st baseman being asked to lose weight, especially when your more jacked like Ramirez than fat. Something tells me Sandoval is the odd man out of town with no public negativity while Shaw takes over 1B and the new "athletic" Hanley takes over 3B.

1. R Betts RF
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. L Ortiz DH
4. R Bogaerts SS
5. R Ramirez 3B
6. L Shaw 1B
7. R Castillo LF
8. R Vazquez C
9. L Bradley CF

I love the balance offensively and the defence is much more stable at even more positions with the exception of only one (3B) where Panda wasn't exactly a gold glover anyway.

ruckus16969
10-08-2015, 05:30 PM
Maybe I'm reading between the lines a little too deep here, but why would DD go public in wanting Hanley to lose 15 pounds to be more "athletic" next season while Pablo gets a pass? I've never heard of a 1st baseman being asked to lose weight, especially when your more jacked like Ramirez than fat. Something tells me Sandoval is the odd man out of town with no public negativity while Shaw takes over 1B and the new "athletic" Hanley takes over 3B.

1. R Betts RF
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. L Ortiz DH
4. R Bogaerts SS
5. R Ramirez 3B
6. L Shaw 1B
7. R Castillo LF
8. R Vazquez C
9. L Bradley CF

I love the balance offensively and the defence is much more stable at even more positions with the exception of only one (3B) where Panda wasn't exactly a gold glover anyway.

You know I was reading the offseason outlook for the Tridebon Mlbtr earlier and they say that the Tribes biggest need is 3B and CF.

So I got thinking

Panda Johnson and JBJ or Castillo plus maybe some lower end kids for Kluber or Corasco. Gives them a 3B and CF who are controlled plus a high upside SP to slide into the backend of the rotaion. We have to pay some money or take on a bad contract like Chris Johnson but we might be matching up pretty well with Clevland here on a trade

RedSoxtober
10-08-2015, 11:12 PM
Maybe I'm reading between the lines a little too deep here, but why would DD go public in wanting Hanley to lose 15 pounds to be more "athletic" next season while Pablo gets a pass? I've never heard of a 1st baseman being asked to lose weight, especially when your more jacked like Ramirez than fat. Something tells me Sandoval is the odd man out of town with no public negativity while Shaw takes over 1B and the new "athletic" Hanley takes over 3B.

FWIW, the FO also asked Panda to come to camp in better shape (see here (http://nesn.com/2015/10/red-sox-notes-team-asks-hanley-ramirez-pablo-sandoval-to-drop-weight/)). He did not get a pass at all. It was just far less publicized because HanRam's ticket home was punched with instructions before the season ended and because there was no specific target revealed for him.

MG956
10-10-2015, 03:30 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-6.html

This article does a good job explaining where we are right now. Just painting with broad strokes I can clearly see we are paying Hanley, Panda & Craig a lot of money for not much. Going forward that cripples us because we are already paying Porcello for something in the future, Buchholz for cameo appearances & waiting for Ortiz to fall off a cliff. I'm assuming we will pick up Clay's option, and if we have a brain see if we can't extend him for cheap. (I know, I am as sick of him as you all but this could be good value).

For the most part this team has good bones, and I hope we build off of that rather than weaken it to satisfy public opinion.

The 6 players I mentioned above, Hanley, Panda, Craig, Porcello, Buchholz & Ortiz are making nearly 100 million for 2016, if we pick up Clay's option. The average total team payroll for the teams entering the 2015 MLB Playoffs is 105 million, if you exclude the Yankees & Dodgers crazy half billion budgets.

8 teams have gotten into the playoffs with a total team budget of about what we have in those 6 players. Read that sentence again.

If I am not mistaken the suits in charge of this off season had nothing to do with those 6 players, and I am hoping to see drastically better choices being made.

I think Panda, Craig & Buchholz need to be moved, and we'll be upside down when it is all said and done. Buchholz should net us a little profit to make moving the other 2 less painful.

Ortiz will solve his own problem, eventually, but he isn't going anywhere short term. Hanley I see as our new Manny, and if not him then who? I don't want Hanley moved just because he is the most valuable problem piece we can move. Hanley will have to show he is in this thing 100%, as opposed to what we saw this year. That's a big if because he has to spend all that time spending the millions he is being paid, but maybe he can be inspired by playing on a team that isn't in last place all year.

Hey, Manny was a head case too.

GrkGawdofWalkz
10-12-2015, 09:12 AM
I'm ready to just get rid of Sandoval and HanRam. For all the right things they said in the offseason, I just cannot see this team needing them. The offense played just fine without them. If you had to goad me personally into choosing one or the other, I'd dump HanRam in a heartbeat. Castillo also hasn't shown much yet. He's serviceable defensively, but really he's not at all what the front office had to hope he'd be. Fix the bullpen, I never want to see Breslow in a Red Sox uniform again. He was terrible.

GrkGawdofWalkz
10-12-2015, 09:16 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-6.html

This article does a good job explaining where we are right now. Just painting with broad strokes I can clearly see we are paying Hanley, Panda & Craig a lot of money for not much. Going forward that cripples us because we are already paying Porcello for something in the future, Buchholz for cameo appearances & waiting for Ortiz to fall off a cliff. I'm assuming we will pick up Clay's option, and if we have a brain see if we can't extend him for cheap. (I know, I am as sick of him as you all but this could be good value).

For the most part this team has good bones, and I hope we build off of that rather than weaken it to satisfy public opinion.

The 6 players I mentioned above, Hanley, Panda, Craig, Porcello, Buchholz & Ortiz are making nearly 100 million for 2016, if we pick up Clay's option. The average total team payroll for the teams entering the 2015 MLB Playoffs is 105 million, if you exclude the Yankees & Dodgers crazy half billion budgets.

8 teams have gotten into the playoffs with a total team budget of about what we have in those 6 players. Read that sentence again.

If I am not mistaken the suits in charge of this off season had nothing to do with those 6 players, and I am hoping to see drastically better choices being made.

I think Panda, Craig & Buchholz need to be moved, and we'll be upside down when it is all said and done. Buchholz should net us a little profit to make moving the other 2 less painful.

Ortiz will solve his own problem, eventually, but he isn't going anywhere short term. Hanley I see as our new Manny, and if not him then who? I don't want Hanley moved just because he is the most valuable problem piece we can move. Hanley will have to show he is in this thing 100%, as opposed to what we saw this year. That's a big if because he has to spend all that time spending the millions he is being paid, but maybe he can be inspired by playing on a team that isn't in last place all year.

Hey, Manny was a head case too.

Hanley Ramirez is the bigger problem than Sandoval. Buchholz if they choose to not pick up his option solves that problem, however he's going to be a Sox at least one more season. Craig/Ramirez/Castillo need to be shown the door.

Bo Sox Fan
10-12-2015, 03:32 PM
Free Agents:

SP Jordan Zimmerman
~ 5 years, $120 million guaranteed w/a 6th year $24 million option that kicks in if he reaches 200 innings pitched in each of years 4 & 5.

RP Tyler Clippard
~ 3 years, $21 million.

Trades:

To Oakland
C. Blake Swihart
SP Henry Owens
OF Manuel Margot
RP Tommy Layne
SP Matt Barnes

To Boston
SP Sonny Gray
RP Sean Doolittle

---------------------------------

R Sonny Gray
R Jordan Zimmerman
L Eduardo Rodriguez
R Clay Buchholz
R Rick Porcello

CL R Uehara
SU L Doolittle
SU R Clippard
MR R Tazawa
MR L Escobar
LR R Kelly (Buchholz injury)
LR L Miley (Buchholz injury)

The replacements:

L Brian Johnson
R Stephen Wright
R Brandon Workman

celticsman2009
10-13-2015, 06:44 PM
And Anthony Rizzo homers for the cubbies. Wish we had players like him. :(

homie564
10-14-2015, 12:23 PM
Free Agents:

SP Jordan Zimmerman
~ 5 years, $120 million guaranteed w/a 6th year $24 million option that kicks in if he reaches 200 innings pitched in each of years 4 & 5.

RP Tyler Clippard
~ 3 years, $21 million.

Trades:

To Oakland
C. Blake Swihart
SP Henry Owens
OF Manuel Margot
RP Tommy Layne
SP Matt Barnes

To Boston
SP Sonny Gray
RP Sean Doolittle

---------------------------------

R Sonny Gray
R Jordan Zimmerman
L Eduardo Rodriguez
R Clay Buchholz
R Rick Porcello

CL R Uehara
SU L Doolittle
SU R Clippard
MR R Tazawa
MR L Escobar
LR R Kelly (Buchholz injury)
LR L Miley (Buchholz injury)

The replacements:

L Brian Johnson
R Stephen Wright
R Brandon Workman


I don't think you're that far off of what it'd take to get Gray. I just don't see them getting two righties atop the rotation. They're probably going to want to balance the righty lefty thing. I'd also really rather keep Swihart, and try to get them to bite on Devers/other + Vazquez instead.

Oakmont_4
10-14-2015, 03:15 PM
I don't think you're that far off of what it'd take to get Gray. I just don't see them getting two righties atop the rotation. They're probably going to want to balance the righty lefty thing. I'd also really rather keep Swihart, and try to get them to bite on Devers/other + Vazquez instead.

I don't think there's any chance we give up that much for Gray. I don't think they'd want to trade Swihart or Owens. I think any deal would come with the stipulation, pick a package of 5 prospects that weren't on our MLB roster last year. And don't even try to include Moncada.

homie564
10-14-2015, 05:39 PM
I don't think you're that far off of what it'd take to get Gray. I just don't see them getting two righties atop the rotation. They're probably going to want to balance the righty lefty thing. I'd also really rather keep Swihart, and try to get them to bite on Devers/other + Vazquez instead.

I don't think there's any chance we give up that much for Gray. I don't think they'd want to trade Swihart or Owens. I think any deal would come with the stipulation, pick a package of 5 prospects that weren't on our MLB roster last year. And don't even try to include Moncada.

See but when your talking a player as young and special as Gray, all that goes out the window. The red Sox SHOULD give up that much for a player that can be a corner stone to this pitching staff for the next decade +. Like I said, I'd rather keep Swihart... But I'd probably trade him if it meant getting a player of that Pedigree.

randyisgoinsolo
10-14-2015, 07:54 PM
I think it's better if the Sox don't trade Swihart, to me they should just wait and see what Vasquez can do when he comes back from TJ. I'm all for having 2 young catchers playing next season, they should just go after either Cueto, Price or Zimmerman and see if the Padres or Cleveland want to make a trade for Ross and Kimbrel or Carrasco or Salazar. Gray is awesome but I'm not a big fan of trading that much for Gray and a relieve pitcher who hasn't pitched at all this season. I'm not really a fan of trading most of the farm unless it's for Sale or King Felix I rather keep those top 5 prospects and take my chances in the free agent market. Look what happened when the Sox traded Rizzo for Gonzales and they barely went far with him on that team, I believe DD will make decent offers for a young controllable pitcher, he gave up pretty much nothing for David Price and he had 2 years left at the time.

Bo Sox Fan
10-14-2015, 09:59 PM
Since DD said the payroll is not going south, but rather increasing, Alex Gordon would be a perfect fit in left field for this team on a 3 year Victorino like contract. Especially with the left handed stick in a right handed heavy lineup. Castillo should actually be the 4th outfielder and earn his money that way since he can play all 3 positions.

R Betts RF
L Gordon LF
R Pedroia 2B
L Ortiz DH
R Bogaerts SS
R Ramirez 1B
L Sandoval 3B
R Vazquez C
L Bradley Jr CF

Holt UTL
Shaw 1B/3B
Castillo OF
Hanigan C

Swihart, Owens and/or Margot headline a blockbuster trade for a cost controlled ace.

bagwell368
10-15-2015, 01:02 PM
^ Dunno. I'm a big Gordon fan, but his peak may be behind him (31 yrs and 9 mo old). He's a 2B machine, but doesn't have elite HR power for an OF, and is going to be paid very well - I'd pass. If he was 26 that would be a different story.

A mega $ 4th OF? That doesn't look good if he's only getting 230 PA's. More like they could afford to put Betts in a deal for some special pitcher with Gordon on board to play LF. Still not liking that much.

ruckus16969
10-15-2015, 03:36 PM
I agree 100% about Gordan.

I'm stuck on Chris Davis. He plays all 3 positions that we have question marks. I know he will cost allot of money but his bat is exactly what this team needs. And it's great that he plays 3 positions.

If Hanley could turn things around we could have at least an equal 3 4 5 threat as Toronto but with Mookie and XB getting on base in front of them and Pedey and Swihart behind them. That could be an epic lineup

Bo Sox Fan
10-15-2015, 04:21 PM
Chris Davis is 6'3 230 pounds and should never play any other position than 1B/DH going forward. Where do you magically play Hanley and Ortiz then since we're stuck with them or did you just chose to forget? Or I guess we could just wipe them under the carper and pretend they don't exist, makes sense.

Statistically in his career, Chris Davis strikes out every 3rd at bat, that's disgusting. But I guess it would be exciting to see him hit a home run every 17th game (career average) and then wait another 17 games for the next one (career averages again) while the strikeouts pile up inbetween.

Sorry if I come off as an *** but major PASS.

ruckus16969
10-15-2015, 08:40 PM
You'd pass on 40 HR's when this team lacks major power you def sound like an ***. I was actually thinking about him more of a LF'r that could play 1B if Hanley gets hurt or needs a break and could also fill in for Panda if needs a break or gets he could also DH if ORTIZ gets hurt.

Ya we would have to trade Castillo or JBJ but I would definitely give him 20m a year for 4/5 years.

Bo Sox Fan
10-15-2015, 10:22 PM
You'd pass on 40 HR's when this team lacks major power you def sound like an ***. I was actually thinking about him more of a LF'r that could play 1B if Hanley gets hurt or needs a break and could also fill in for Panda if needs a break or gets he could also DH if ORTIZ gets hurt.

Ya we would have to trade Castillo or JBJ but I would definitely give him 20m a year for 4/5 years.

So you want him to make $20 million for 4/5 years to sit on the bench and wait for days off / injuries when you already have Shaw and Holt for free who are already blocked in their own right and could give you the same production with better defence.

For the record I have never seen Chris Davis play 3rd base or left field except for in a pinch because of a short bench in a 14 inning game.

ruckus16969
10-16-2015, 02:40 AM
Don't be ridiculous. I'm not even going to answer that

Oakmont_4
10-16-2015, 09:53 AM
Chris Davis is 6'3 230 pounds and should never play any other position than 1B/DH going forward. Where do you magically play Hanley and Ortiz then since we're stuck with them or did you just chose to forget? Or I guess we could just wipe them under the carper and pretend they don't exist, makes sense.

Statistically in his career, Chris Davis strikes out every 3rd at bat, that's disgusting. But I guess it would be exciting to see him hit a home run every 17th game (career average) and then wait another 17 games for the next one (career averages again) while the strikeouts pile up inbetween.

Sorry if I come off as an *** but major PASS.

I agree, the only way I'd even consider signing Gordon or Davis is if Hanley can be traded. Which at this point is highly unlikely.

I wouldn't expect much in the way of fielders via Free Agency. What we have now is sufficient. I think adding a 4th OFer who's serviceable on a short term contract is all I would expect.

I'm sure Dombrowski will explore trading Castillo, Hanley and Pablo...But I doubt he finds any takers. If he can, then I would be more optimistic about a major signing outside of pitching.

Bo Sox Fan
10-16-2015, 12:35 PM
Here's another deal I think would benefit both clubs in the short term (Boston) and long term (Miami) assuming we can deal Sandoval. Miami likes there hispanic players and seem determined to win next year, so here goes:

To Boston:
3B. Martin Prado (1 year remaining, $11M dollar contract. $3M paid by the Yankees)

To Miami:
OF. Rusney Castillo (5 years remaining, $10.3M cap hit)

Use Prado as the everyday 3B while Shaw gets spot reps at 1B & 3B, likely getting plenty of time if/when injuries occur on the infield corners. It then opens up left field for an Alex Gordon signing on a Shane Victorino esk contract.

RedSoxtober
10-16-2015, 04:24 PM
Since DD said the payroll is not going south, but rather increasing, Alex Gordon would be a perfect fit in left field for this team on a 3 year Victorino like contract. Especially with the left handed stick in a right handed heavy lineup. Castillo should actually be the 4th outfielder and earn his money that way since he can play all 3 positions.
I think that you're adding in the bolded part. Dombroski did say that he does not expect payroll to decrease but did not say or imply that it would change significantly from what it was this year. Call it roughly $200M.


You'd pass on 40 HR's when this team lacks major power you def sound like an ***. I was actually thinking about him more of a LF'r that could play 1B if Hanley gets hurt or needs a break and could also fill in for Panda if needs a break or gets he could also DH if ORTIZ gets hurt.

Ease up.

As for Davis, I'd really NOT consider him a viable option away from 1B. As a 3B he was well below average defensively and he has played only an handful of games there since 2011. Similarly, a couple dozen corner OF starts per year with -14 Rdrs is not really adequate in the OF even if Fenway's LF is relatively easy to handle.

When considering Davis it's also worth noting how much of his offense came at home (.269/.342/.545 vs .241/.318/469). While you might want to argue that Fenway could act similarly for him it's not generally considered helpful to LH pull hitters and his lifetime .210/.295/.335 line at Fenway seems to confirm that it'd be a poor bet.

IMO committing money to Davis would be a poor concession to the single-dimensional, power-oriented offenses of the past with a very high probability of busting.

papipapsmanny
10-16-2015, 04:41 PM
Castillo is almost untradeable. His contract is too big for what he has done. Trading him would be of no value to us, especially if he continues to improve.

JBJ on the other hand is very tradeable and his value is maybe as high as it has ever been, and I would like to cash in on that as a package for a pitcher.

If he is traded I would like to sign Rasmus on a 3 year deal, I can't see him breaking the bank. And I stated I wanted to sign him before his playoff run.

I think we can trade Owens, Marrero, Margot, and Kopech for Sonny Gray. I think JBJ, Johnson, Guerra, and Travis could net us Carrasco.

I do both deals easily, even though we give up a lot. We get two really good and relatively cost controlled SPs and keep Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, E-Rod, Espinoza, Devers, Benintendi, Shaw, and Travis.

I have Hanley as a gone obviously. Miley would have to be traded as well (he is quite tradeable actually).

I pick up Buchholz's option. He is one 2 one year deals for us, you won't find someone else with what he is capable at that price. He was more productive in a half season this year than Porcello has even been in his entire career.

Gray
Carrasco
Buchholz
E-Rod
Porcello

Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Bogaerts
Shaw
Castillo
Rasmus
Sandoval
Swihart

bagwell368
10-16-2015, 09:08 PM
Davis is a 1B/DH. He's useless in the OF or at 3B - actually he's a big negative there. His BA and OBP are not elite, and as he ages he might become a boat anchor sooner rather then later.

Come to think of it, sounds like a perfect Sox player.... even so, pass unless we get rid of Hanley first, then move with caution.

BoSox47
10-18-2015, 09:21 AM
Mets wont be able to sign Harvey, Degrom and Syndygaard. We should offer them a package for Syndygaard. Also try to sign Price.

I believe since Price was traded, signing him wouldnt cause us to lose our first round draft pick. Then the Mets need hitting in the organization and we have that in our farm. With Harvey, Degrom and Syndygaard all needed contracts in the relative future it is hard to imagine they sign all three.

Price
Buccholz
Rodriguez
Synygaard
Porcello/Miley

taffi101
10-18-2015, 01:35 PM
Mets wont be able to sign Harvey, Degrom and Syndygaard. We should offer them a package for Syndygaard. Also try to sign Price.

I believe since Price was traded, signing him wouldnt cause us to lose our first round draft pick. Then the Mets need hitting in the organization and we have that in our farm. With Harvey, Degrom and Syndygaard all needed contracts in the relative future it is hard to imagine they sign all three.

Price
Buccholz
Rodriguez
Synygaard
Porcello/Miley

Right team, wrong pitcher to target. Syndegaard is controllable for the next few years before he is even arb eligible, so my guess is they have zero interest in moving him. Same could be said for DeGrom. Harvey might be the only one available or open to offers, if any. First year arb eligible if I'm not mistaken, so maybe you try and work out something, but my guess is none of those three are moving anytime soon....

The Mets aren't a poor or small market franchise, that has to dump salary, although one could argue they have penny pinching ownership, so, there is no real pressing need to move any of their pitching, unless one is reading into the whole "innings" issue, and viewing that as an possible rift, which I'm not buying...

Any deal with the Mets for Harvey or any of their big three arms, would probably have to include Betts.....IMO

ruckus16969
10-19-2015, 11:35 PM
If it was Betts it could probably be a straight up swap. None of those 3 had a WAR over 4.8. Betts was 6

But I'd be bull shyt if they sent Betts for any of those guys

Oakmont_4
10-20-2015, 09:17 AM
Mets wont be able to sign Harvey, Degrom and Syndygaard. We should offer them a package for Syndygaard. Also try to sign Price.

I believe since Price was traded, signing him wouldnt cause us to lose our first round draft pick. Then the Mets need hitting in the organization and we have that in our farm. With Harvey, Degrom and Syndygaard all needed contracts in the relative future it is hard to imagine they sign all three.

Price
Buccholz
Rodriguez
Synygaard
Porcello/Miley

The Mets can easily resign all of those players. The only player they have a major monitary and years commitment to is David Wright ($17.5 mil until 2021). And I guess Granderson ($15 mil until 2018) and Cuddyer ($10.5 until 2017). After those 3, their highest contract is Niese at $5 mil. Cespedes is a Free Agent (most likely won't resign). Uribe, Clippard, Colon, Murphey are all Free Agents. In total they are saving more than $30 mil with these departures off their current cap number. That $30 mil will be put towards trying to lock up Harvey and DeGrom long term.

The Mets have 4 young and very talented pitchers under control for a while.
Harvey
DeGrom
Syndergard
Matz

If they're willing to trade anyone in that STACKED rotation, it'll be Niese. But even that I would doubt seeing Colon is leaving via Free Agency/Retirement.

If they stand pat they have Niese/Wheeler to fill in the 5th starter spot...Equating to the best and youngest starting pitching staff in the league. Why would they ever break that up?

They're well on their way to a WS appearance this season. And if they can keep that rotation together over the next 2-3 seasons, they'll be legit contenders every year as long as they can maintain some sort of an offense.

We have literally nothing to offer a team like this. They're not going to be interested in young guys - they're playing for right now. They have no use for Hanley or Pablo or and of our veteran bats who can't field worth a damn. They have better pitching than we do all the way around.

There's literally 2 players they may be interested in...Betts and Boegarts...Are you going to give them up for their pitching? I'm not.

The Mets have one of the best situations in baseball right now and are not even close to legitimate trade partners with us...We have nothing to offer them.

RedSoxtober
10-20-2015, 02:13 PM
The Mets can easily resign all of those players. The only player they have a major monitary and years commitment to is David Wright ($17.5 mil until 2021). And I guess Granderson ($15 mil until 2018) and Cuddyer ($10.5 until 2017). After those 3, their highest contract is Niese at $5 mil.
There's no doubt that they could re-sign all of those pitchers next year but whether or not they could re-sign them long term is not at all clear. With that in mind it is not at all unreasonable that one of the young SPs could be pried from the Mets in order for them to satisfy another need.


Cespedes is a Free Agent (most likely won't resign).
Cespedes had great success at Citi and has already waived some of his rights in order to be able to negotiate with the Mets. The signs suggest that him re-signing is anything BUT unlikely.


In total they are saving more than $30 mil with these departures off their current cap number. That $30 mil will be put towards trying to lock up Harvey and DeGrom long term.
The supposed savings is overstated. Their 2016 guaranteed contracts are dropping by just under $41M. After his post-season run I strongly doubt that they just let Murphy ($8M) walk but Colon will be unnecessary. Carlyle, Duda, Gee, Mayberry, and Tejada are all in their third year of arbitration and they or their replacements will likely get more than the $12.5M paid to them currently. Mejia is a bit of a wild card in his second year of arb ($2.9M guaranteed). Besides Harvey, Familia, who led the NL with 65 games finished, and setup man Alex Torres are also first-year arb cases. Even ignoring the stature of the players involved you could be guaranteed a minimum of $12M for those six cases. There's also 23 unnamed players to round out the 40-man roster which adds another $11.5M Assuming that Colon is replaced by an MLB minimum contract you're pretty much guaranteed to have committed to somewhere in the neighborhood of $43M-46M which raises payroll without even considering giving a reasonable raise to Harvey or Familia. Those numbers could be a bit high depending on what they do with their arb cases but hopefully reasonable enough to show that the payroll savings is largely illusory. In reality their payroll will go up just to keep the same basic roster in place without considering raises for their most promising arb eligibles.

The positive side of the coin from a NYM (fan) perspective is that their current payroll is down significantly from past seasons. There's no guarantee that they ever get back up to their $150M payroll days but it's not unreasonable to think that they can expand beyond the current payroll. It's just that the $40M-45M difference between current payroll and peak payroll will not keep many of the promising young arms under their control for very long.


We have literally nothing to offer a team like this. They're not going to be interested in young guys - they're playing for right now. They have no use for Hanley or Pablo or and of our veteran bats who can't field worth a damn. They have better pitching than we do all the way around.
I'd differ with you on this quite a bit. The Mets have done a phenomenal job in the playoffs because, as always, pitching wins in October. Getting to the playoffs could prove to be harder for them in the future, however. Their lineup has largely lacked punch and they would not have stormed to the playoffs (37-22 from 8/1 onward) had Cespedes not ignited them. In fact, they had a 53-50 record and negative run differential before he was acquired.

With an aging OF they could very well be attracted to someone like JBJr if they think that his august August was a hint of things to come. Marrero could replace Tejada on the roster at a fraction of the cost. Any of the catching triumvirate might complement the starting rotation nicely (no slight to d'Arnaud, et al). Maybe they would consider a discounted HanRam (with Duda moving back to the OF) if they lose out on Cespedes. IMO, there are enough flaws on the offensive side of the equation that a deal could be structured on the basis of offense-for-pitching.

Oakmont_4
10-20-2015, 04:05 PM
There's no doubt that they could re-sign all of those pitchers next year but whether or not they could re-sign them long term is not at all clear. With that in mind it is not at all unreasonable that one of the young SPs could be pried from the Mets in order for them to satisfy another need.

There’s no reason to sign them all long term this offseason, no reason at all. Syndergard and Matz are under their control for a while. DeGrom and Harvey are the only two they need to worry about. A deal will get done, if not this offseason, then next. Sandy has already stated retaining pitching and building around pitching is their strategy. He’s even stated that payroll WILL increase as soon as revenues increased. Revenues increased making the playoffs. Revenues increased advancing and Revenues WILL increase if they make the WS. The payroll will be going up next season, that’s all but assured.


Cespedes had great success at Citi and has already waived some of his rights in order to be able to negotiate with the Mets. The signs suggest that him re-signing is anything BUT unlikely.

There’s no doubt he’s had great success. But it’s only a half season. His career numbers are much more telling. His career numbers indicate he is NOT a 6 year $20 million man. His agent has already clarified he wants 6 years…And I have no doubt he’s going to get it from some OTHER team. Sandy has ALWAYS backed away from 5-6 year deals. And other MLB “Sources” indicate the Jacoby Ellsbury deal will be the STARTING point for a Cespedes deal. So yes, it’s promising he took the clause out of his contract to give the Mets a shot at re-signing him…And I have no doubt they will TRY to sign him long term. But I would be SHOCKED if they give him 6 years $120+ million. But don’t read too much into it, all it really does is allow the Mets to make an attempt to resign him…Without the change the Mets had zero chance of re-signing him. He’s publicly stated he loves playing for the Mets, so of course he’s going to give them a chance to re-sign him…But it means nothing more than that.

They’ve already proven they can tread water in a bad division with a BAD offense, then make a move at the deadline. That to me seems like a more cost effective way to improve offense than overpaying a guy for a great second half of a season (one time). OR trading a great YOUNG pitcher who was part of the reason your team CAN tread water with a bad offense.


The supposed savings is overstated. Their 2016 guaranteed contracts are dropping by just under $41M. After his post-season run I strongly doubt that they just let Murphy ($8M) walk but Colon will be unnecessary. Carlyle, Duda, Gee, Mayberry, and Tejada are all in their third year of arbitration and they or their replacements will likely get more than the $12.5M paid to them currently. Mejia is a bit of a wild card in his second year of arb ($2.9M guaranteed). Besides Harvey, Familia, who led the NL with 65 games finished, and setup man Alex Torres are also first-year arb cases. Even ignoring the stature of the players involved you could be guaranteed a minimum of $12M for those six cases. There's also 23 unnamed players to round out the 40-man roster which adds another $11.5M Assuming that Colon is replaced by an MLB minimum contract you're pretty much guaranteed to have committed to somewhere in the neighborhood of $43M-46M which raises payroll without even considering giving a reasonable raise to Harvey or Familia. Those numbers could be a bit high depending on what they do with their arb cases but hopefully reasonable enough to show that the payroll savings is largely illusory. In reality their payroll will go up just to keep the same basic roster in place without considering raises for their most promising arb eligibles.

The positive side of the coin from a NYM (fan) perspective is that their current payroll is down significantly from past seasons. There's no guarantee that they ever get back up to their $150M payroll days but it's not unreasonable to think that they can expand beyond the current payroll. It's just that the $40M-45M difference between current payroll and peak payroll will not keep many of the promising young arms under their control for very long.

The Mets aren’t going to keep Murphy just because of a solid post season. The fact is, he’s an avaerage at best fielder unless at 3B. Which obviously is blocked. They have Tejada and Flores under contract to man 2B and SS. They need a UIF, that’s it. They’re not going to pay Murphy $10mil for 4 years to play part time…They’re just not. They would LOVE to bring him back, but he’s played himself off the team.

I think you’re numbers are high, but we’ll see how it plays out. My main point is…The Mets are essentially set in their core

Their 5 SP’s have already been listed, plus they have Wheeler coming back. BP is set, will only lose Clippard but they have some injured players coming back…I’m sure they’ll try to add 1 or 2 arms in the offseason, but nothing major or overly expensive.

Catcher is set – both are young and cheap

Duda, Flores, Tejada, Wright is their Infield…They need a Utility man off the bench (not going to be Murphy at $10 mil.)

OF Conforto, Lagares, Granderson. Cuddyer is the 4th Ofer at the moment.

Ideally they move on from Cuddyer and bring in a legit LF’er or re-sign Cespedes (I doubt it) and make Conforto the 4th OFer

But my point here is…If they bring this team back…Move Cuddyer….Sign a Lfer and 2 BP arms.

This team I've listed is NOT going to be more payroll wise than it currently is. Sandy has said payroll will increase…That increase will be what they allocate to their Starters (Harvey and DeGrom)


I'd differ with you on this quite a bit. The Mets have done a phenomenal job in the playoffs because, as always, pitching wins in October. Getting to the playoffs could prove to be harder for them in the future, however. Their lineup has largely lacked punch and they would not have stormed to the playoffs (37-22 from 8/1 onward) had Cespedes not ignited them. In fact, they had a 53-50 record and negative run differential before he was acquired.

As I said, they’ve already proved to themselves they can be average and float through a BAD division with a bad offense and great pitching. It’s pretty easy to pick up a bat at the deadline. Moreso than a pitcher. Their division is terrible. Why wouldn’t they save the money on spending big on Cespedes where he’s overpaid and go the same route as they did this season? It’s a much cheaper and more cost effective way to go about building a team.


With an aging OF they could very well be attracted to someone like JBJr if they think that his august August was a hint of things to come. Marrero could replace Tejada on the roster at a fraction of the cost. Any of the catching triumvirate might complement the starting rotation nicely (no slight to d'Arnaud, et al). Maybe they would consider a discounted HanRam (with Duda moving back to the OF) if they lose out on Cespedes. IMO, there are enough flaws on the offensive side of the equation that a deal could be structured on the basis of offense-for-pitching.

The OF is only aging in RF (Granderson) Lagares and Conforto are young and promising.

I have no doubt they would be interested in JBJ or even possibly Castillo…But you’re taking what I’m saying out of context…They context was prying one of their pitchers away. Neither JBJ or Castillo is getting you anywhere near one of those pitchers. Even if you throw in some prospects…Why would they want them? They have a 2-3 year window here with their current rotation to be a constant WS contender. They’re not going to break that up for JBJ and prospects.

Duda is a terrible OF…Just stop.

They’re not going to give up pitching to slightly improve over D’Arnaud who flashed his real potential early in the season where he carried that offense…Then he got hurt and was never the same.

NO NL TEAM WANTS HANRAM. He’s unproven at 1B…Proved he can’t play OF and he’s done as a middle infielder. Doubt he can play 3B at this point. HanRam’s bat isn’t even great, no better than what they have currently as far as veterans and any younger player they have has more potential and plays far better defense…Not going to happen.

And yeah, Marrero is cheaper than Tejada…But Tejada is only making what $2 mil? Why is JBJ/Marrero better than having Tejada/X pitcher? Makes no sense man.

Any holes the Mets have on offense can be fixed far cheaper than dealing ANY of their starting pitchers outside of Niese and Wheeler. That is my point. There is no incentive to break up their top 4 unless they’re getting a Betts or Xander or Stanton or Harper…Players of that caliber…

Bo Sox Fan
10-20-2015, 08:09 PM
R Sonny Gray
L Eduardo Rodriguez

My 1-2 punch for the future starting in 2016.

Fla.SticKy
10-20-2015, 08:55 PM
R Sonny Gray
L Eduardo Rodriguez

My 1-2 punch for the future starting in 2016.
Add Carrasco, and it's a wrap!

Pittz
10-21-2015, 09:22 AM
...

You really like all caps for emphasis, huh?

RedSoxtober
10-21-2015, 10:29 AM
There’s no reason to sign them all long term this offseason, no reason at all. Syndergard and Matz are under their control for a while. DeGrom and Harvey are the only two they need to worry about. A deal will get done, if not this offseason, then next. Sandy has already stated retaining pitching and building around pitching is their strategy. He’s even stated that payroll WILL increase as soon as revenues increased. Revenues increased making the playoffs. Revenues increased advancing and Revenues WILL increase if they make the WS. The payroll will be going up next season, that’s all but assured.
FO's don't make decisions based one a one-year plan. They're going to examine the team going forward both in terms of what they believe can happen in 2016 as well as how it sets them up for 2017-19. That's why the status of all the pitchers is important for this coming offseason.

Also, if you're looking at the playoffs as "increased revenues" then I think you're in for a disappointment. There's no doubt that playoff gate makes the number go up but it's a relative drop-in-the-bucket as compared to the 81-game home slate and attendant revenue. I'm not suggesting that it won't (or can't) continue into 2016 but rather that playoff revenue is not at all the kind of revenue increase that Alderson is talking about.


There’s no doubt he’s had great success. But it’s only a half season. His career numbers are much more telling. His career numbers indicate he is NOT a 6 year $20 million man. His agent has already clarified he wants 6 years…And I have no doubt he’s going to get it from some OTHER team.
I think you've misunderstood me regarding Cespedes. He has shown a willingness to re-sign in addition to his stated love for playing with the Mets. IMO that removes him from the "unlikely" category. As for the price tag, I don't really care what the sources say. The numbers are what they are and his actual signing price will probably look a lot more like Granderson's (who has a much more similar offensive profile) than Ellsbury's when all is said and done.


They’ve already proven they can tread water in a bad division with a BAD offense, then make a move at the deadline. That to me seems like a more cost effective way to improve offense than overpaying a guy for a great second half of a season (one time). OR trading a great YOUNG pitcher who was part of the reason your team CAN tread water with a bad offense.
The Red Sox also showed that they can head into a season with a rotation full of 5s, be among the worst teams in baseball for four months, dump salaries, and still stay in contention for the playoffs until the last two weeks of the season (they weren't eliminated from the WC2 until the end of September). Right? Or no? Actually, the Red Sox were willing to gamble on a faceless rotation in 2015 because they projected the AL East to be a tightly grouped race with a high-80s win total likely enough to win it... and they were accurate in a number of ways. They clearly want an ace for 2016 though.

Likewise, maybe all that the Mets showed was that a ridiculous young rotation with no offense could work this season. While their pitching is great they will also have to deal with the effects of pitching deep into October with its attendant problems of both dramatically increased IP counts and shorter recovery. I don't doubt that they will be very good next season but they might not be quite as good which in turn produces a slightly higher need for offense and a much more likely negative W-L record commensurate with a negative run differential (by any reasonable account they were extraordinarily lucky to be +3 wins with a negative RD on 8/1).


The Mets aren’t going to keep Murphy just because of a solid post season. The fact is, he’s an avaerage at best fielder unless at 3B. Which obviously is blocked. They have Tejada and Flores under contract to man 2B and SS. They need a UIF, that’s it. They’re not going to pay Murphy $10mil for 4 years to play part time…They’re just not. They would LOVE to bring him back, but he’s played himself off the team.
Wow, you like to argue against straw men. Murphy made $8M this year. My estimate for him was $4M-7M and I believe the Mets will attempt to bring him back in the same way that the Sox were compelled to get Lowell.


I think you’re numbers are high, but we’ll see how it plays out. My main point is…The Mets are essentially set in their core
It'd be helpful if you could point out how or where you think my numbers are high. I was pretty specific regarding where the numbers came from. Murphy ($4M-7M), arb 3 cases (14M min), arb 2 case (Mejia, 2.9M min), arb 1 cases (12M min), 40-man (11.5M). To be even more explicit, the arb cases are all guaranteed at least a 10% increase through arbitration (per the CBA). That's how we can nail the minimum value for the arb 2 and 3 cases. Arb 1 cases are less clear cut because they're entering their first season of cost comparison. Unless a player has really flamed out the arb 1 cases generally fall in the $1M-3M range which leads me to put a $12M/6 player value on them as a general range. That could be off but I would guess that it'll be on the low side simply because Harvey/Familia have a much better calling card that most arb 1s. The 40-man number is based on an assumption of MLB minimum being given to all players not yet arbitration eligible (23 x 0.5M). Together those players are in the $45M range even with the departure of Blevins, Colon, and Parnell via FA. If Murphy exits then you're still in the same net payroll range as 2015 keeping the roster the same except for the departing FAs.


Any holes the Mets have on offense can be fixed far cheaper than dealing ANY of their starting pitchers outside of Niese and Wheeler. That is my point. There is no incentive to break up their top 4 unless they’re getting a Betts or Xander or Stanton or Harper…Players of that caliber…
I was not attempting to suggest a JBJ/Marrero for Tejada/pitcher X trade. I was suggesting that the Red Sox have a number of options that could be very attractive to a team that will soon need to (a) make a big pay day to several young pitchers and (b) badly needs offensive help. I listed specific players because I find that far more helpful than saying "we have what it takes" and dismissing objections with a wave of the hands and CERTAINTY of ones own opinion.

With Niese, Gee, Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Verret (listed in roughly descending service time) the Mets have more than enough SP to cover the rotation and depth. Given the right package, most of the players on that list will be more valuable in trade than they are on the field and it could very well come in a form by which the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. More importantly, it won't be the low-lying fruit of a Jon Niese just because he appears to be the easiest to part with; reasonable trades "hurt" on both sides. Harvey would "hurt", for example, but his growing list of headache moves combined with his agent (Boras) could make him a guy whose sum-of-parts value might be more reasonable than you think.

Oakmont_4
10-21-2015, 11:51 AM
1. FO's don't make decisions based one a one-year plan. They're going to examine the team going forward both in terms of what they believe can happen in 2016 as well as how it sets them up for 2017-19. That's why the status of all the pitchers is important for this coming offseason.

Also, if you're looking at the playoffs as "increased revenues" then I think you're in for a disappointment. There's no doubt that playoff gate makes the number go up but it's a relative drop-in-the-bucket as compared to the 81-game home slate and attendant revenue. I'm not suggesting that it won't (or can't) continue into 2016 but rather that playoff revenue is not at all the kind of revenue increase that Alderson is talking about.

I’m not suggesting they make the decision based off a one year plan, but merely the first year (2016) outweighs years (2017-2019, mainly 2019, as I stated they have a great 2-3 year window as they are currently constructed). It would make zero sense to me to move Harvey or DeGromm (2 years of control) this year…More likely you start entertaining the idea of moving 1 in 2017 when the time is closing fast for Free Agency. In 2017 I think you open up those contract talks and see where both sides stand. If it appears getting both signed will be unlikely, you try to move 1 to get a better package in return vs just a draft pick when they walk during Free Agency. But there is no urgency to move them now with both under control for 2 more years. Syndergard and Matz make hardly anything and have 4 years of control. There is absolutely NO reason to move either in the immediate future. Unless as I’ve stated, you’re getting a PROVEN, young talent such as a Harper or Boegarts or Betts type player in return. Then you listen. Short of that…That phone call will end quickly.


I think you've misunderstood me regarding Cespedes. He has shown a willingness to re-sign in addition to his stated love for playing with the Mets. IMO that removes him from the "unlikely" category. As for the price tag, I don't really care what the sources say. The numbers are what they are and his actual signing price will probably look a lot more like Granderson's (who has a much more similar offensive profile) than Ellsbury's when all is said and done.

My unlikely category is based on contract years and terms based on Sandy’s contract history. Nothing to do with Cespedes and his time which he’s enjoyed with the Mets. That is the Mets best hope in re-signing him, that he takes his experience with the organization, more into consideration than money and years. BUT everything that’s come from Cespedes side indicates otherwise. He wants long term security and money.

How is a 32 year old Granderson (his age when he signed his 4 year deal in 2013) more comparable to a 30 year old Cespedes and Ellsbury (also 30 year old at the time of his contract). Let’s take a look at the numbers the year before their contracts

Ellsbury .298/.355/.426/.781 9 HR 52SB 47BB 92SO 5.7WAR
Granderson .229/.317/.407/.723 7HR 8SB 27BB 69SO 1.2WAR
Cespedes .291/.328/.542/.870 35HR 7SB 33BB 141SO 4.0WAR(METS) 2.3WAR(DET)

Cespedes certainly is FAR better than Granderson and YOUNGER at the time of the contract.

He’s Getting FAR more than 4 years $60 million. Try double that money.

Comparatively to Ellsbury, his slash numbers are in the same ballpark. His power numbers are far greater. He’s not the base stealer or defensive player Ellsbury was at the time but he is far better than Granderson defensively.

Considering inflation, I do not see how Ellsbury’s contract is not going to be in the ballpark of where Cespedes ends up. Maybe I’m wrong…But He’s certainly getting more than Granderson.


The Red Sox also showed that they can head into a season with a rotation full of 5s, be among the worst teams in baseball for four months, dump salaries, and still stay in contention for the playoffs until the last two weeks of the season (they weren't eliminated from the WC2 until the end of September). Right? Or no? Actually, the Red Sox were willing to gamble on a faceless rotation in 2015 because they projected the AL East to be a tightly grouped race with a high-80s win total likely enough to win it... and they were accurate in a number of ways. They clearly want an ace for 2016 though.

Not the same. The Red Sox pitching staff underperformed terribly in the 2015 first half. The second half they pitched to where they were projected and you saw the results…Wins. Not to mention the Red Sox play in a FAR more competitive division where 2 teams MADE the playoffs and Baltimore and TB were right there till the end with the Red Sox. Conversely the Mets only had to fend off Washington. Put that entire division in the AL East, and the bottom 3 in the NL East are 3 of the worst teams in the league.


Likewise, maybe all that the Mets showed was that a ridiculous young rotation with no offense could work this season. While their pitching is great they will also have to deal with the effects of pitching deep into October with its attendant problems of both dramatically increased IP counts and shorter recovery. I don't doubt that they will be very good next season but they might not be quite as good which in turn produces a slightly higher need for offense and a much more likely negative W-L record commensurate with a negative run differential (by any reasonable account they were extraordinarily lucky to be +3 wins with a negative RD on 8/1).

Exactly. SO the Mets will have to manage their young guys next season, due to a deep playoff run. So why would they deal them away?… when they’re 6-7 deep with solid pitching. They don’t need to make ANY moves to the rotation and should be able to work through the season by starting Matz, Syndergard and DeGromm off slowly.


Wow, you like to argue against straw men. Murphy made $8M this year. My estimate for him was $4M-7M and I believe the Mets will attempt to bring him back in the same way that the Sox were compelled to get Lowell.

Murphy plays 3B. A position where it’s rare to find a good fielder who can hit. Look at the contracts for this position. Here’s his numbers compared to Pablo Sandoval in his final year with SF (1 year younger than Murph)

Murph .281/.322/.449/.770 14 HR 31BB 38SO 1.4WAR – OWAR2.0 DWAR -.4
Pablo .279/.324/.415/.739 16 HR 39BB 85SO 3.4WAR – OWAR3.1 DWAR 0.6

Nearly identical numbers, except Pablo K’s nearly 3 times more than Murph. And Murph’s WAR numbers are hurt by him playing out of position with the Mets. Not to mention he was moved around constantly all season long (we’ve seen how that affect players on the field with Xander among others). They’re nearly identical players…except Murphy gives you heart and tries…Pablo doesn’t.

If you think Murphy is staying with the Mets at $4-7 mil per year, you’re nuts. Look at Pablo and Headley’s contracts from last year…He’s getting wayyyy more than 4-7 mil per to be some teams starting 3B. Why would he turn that down for less money and to be constantly shuffled in and out of the line up with the Mets? Sandy has already stated he’s gone and they’re going to put a QO on him. But you choose to ignore all of this? Why?



It'd be helpful if you could point out how or where you think my numbers are high. I was pretty specific regarding where the numbers came from. Murphy ($4M-7M), arb 3 cases (14M min), arb 2 case (Mejia, 2.9M min), arb 1 cases (12M min), 40-man (11.5M). To be even more explicit, the arb cases are all guaranteed at least a 10% increase through arbitration (per the CBA). That's how we can nail the minimum value for the arb 2 and 3 cases. Arb 1 cases are less clear cut because they're entering their first season of cost comparison. Unless a player has really flamed out the arb 1 cases generally fall in the $1M-3M range which leads me to put a $12M/6 player value on them as a general range. That could be off but I would guess that it'll be on the low side simply because Harvey/Familia have a much better calling card that most arb 1s. The 40-man number is based on an assumption of MLB minimum being given to all players not yet arbitration eligible (23 x 0.5M). Together those players are in the $45M range even with the departure of Blevins, Colon, and Parnell via FA. If Murphy exits then you're still in the same net payroll range as 2015 keeping the roster the same except for the departing FAs.

Will do. Murph is gone… Don’t include that in next year’s cap number (you have)

Mejia – gone …Don’t include that in next year’s cap number (you have)

From there I’m going off baseball reference which has them at a current payroll of just over $131 mil for 2015. Committed for 2016 they’re at $109 mil. I also projected they move Cuddyer which brings them under $100 mil.

I do project they’ll be under $150 mil in 2016 – more around $140-145 – That’s where my $40 mil number comes in – where they need to spend it on 1 OF, 2 BP arms and a UTIL player. The rest of the 40 man can be filled internally (The Mets have a very good farm system (top 10))


I was not attempting to suggest a JBJ/Marrero for Tejada/pitcher X trade. I was suggesting that the Red Sox have a number of options that could be very attractive to a team that will soon need to (a) make a big pay day to several young pitchers and (b) badly needs offensive help. I listed specific players because I find that far more helpful than saying "we have what it takes" and dismissing objections with a wave of the hands and CERTAINTY of ones own opinion

With Niese, Gee, Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Verret (listed in roughly descending service time) the Mets have more than enough SP to cover the rotation and depth. Given the right package, most of the players on that list will be more valuable in trade than they are on the field and it could very well come in a form by which the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. More importantly, it won't be the low-lying fruit of a Jon Niese just because he appears to be the easiest to part with; reasonable trades "hurt" on both sides. Harvey would "hurt", for example, but his growing list of headache moves combined with his agent (Boras) could make him a guy whose sum-of-parts value might be more reasonable than you think.

I certainly do believe, IF any of their pitchers are moved, it WILL be Harvey. But it won’t be in 2016 because they simply have no need to move him. It will be in 2017, their final year of control. At that point they will probably realize Boras wants more than they’re willing to give and he will be traded before he can leave VIA Free Agency.

There’s absolutely no reason to blow up a WS contending staff for the “future” and year early. If we’re looking at this team heading into 2017…I’m right there with you exploring a Harvey/DeGrom trade. But they’re too young, too good and still totally cost controlled for 2 years. It’s a year too early to blow it up. They can find a cheaper bat than Cespedes via Free Agency or at the trade deadline.

Also don’t be fooled. Cespedes was not the only one who sparked this offense (though he was a huge part of it) But they also had Wright and D’Arneu come back which were huge boosts to the offense. It was like getting 3 major bats at the deadline they were lacking in the first half of the season. The fact they were able to trade water at .500 for the first half of the season without those 3 for large portions is amazing to me. And also encouraging that losing 1 of them (let’s call it 50% of that increase) won’t be disastrous. If they can bring in a Free Agent bat to make up 30% of Cespedes at 1/3 the cost…I don’t see how you can’t look at that as serviceable enough to get through the first half of the season similarly if not better than this season…With still the trade deadline ahead to further improve the offense.

Bo Sox Fan
10-21-2015, 05:38 PM
Is Red Sox Nation gonna be tickled or irate if Dombrowski ships not all of, but "most" of Moncada, Devers, Johnson, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Travis, Kopech & Chavis out of town?

... But the main roster still showcases Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, E-Rod, Bradley, Shaw & Vazquez while Sonny Gray is the opening day starter followed by Tyson Ross with Craig Kimbrel as closer?

I wouldn't be mad.

papipapsmanny
10-21-2015, 07:51 PM
Is Red Sox Nation gonna be tickled or irate if Dombrowski ships not all of, but "most" of Moncada, Devers, Johnson, Owens, Margot, Guerra, Travis, Kopech & Chavis out of town?

... But the main roster still showcases Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, E-Rod, Bradley, Shaw & Vazquez while Sonny Gray is the opening day starter followed by Tyson Ross with Craig Kimbrel as closer?

I wouldn't be mad.

Really pissed if Dever's or Moncada gets traded or even Espinoza or Benintendi. There is no reason we cannot get what we need by trading some or all of the group of Owens/Johnson/Margot/Chavis/Kopech/Travis/Barnes/Marrero/Guerra/JBJ/Miley, and other lesser guys within the system.

As for the Mets, they aren't goingto trade any of their young SPs... why trade any of them when it already looks like in year one with all of them they are going to go to the WS. They are in NY, with them getting this far they can easily increase payroll. With their market the more they become relevant the higher amount they can spend. I could see them locking them all up with fair longish term deals they eats up arb years as well as some FA years. It would be stupid not too.

Cespedes may very well resign there. We aren't getting any of their SPs

Bo Sox Fan
10-22-2015, 12:32 AM
Call me crazy, and you can call me out on this in a couple months if I'm wrong, but I know DD historically likes new shiny expensive impactful toys on his roster and that he'll go big on a trade this winter killing 2 birds with one stone. Something eerily similar to this.

To Boston
SP Jose Fernandez
LF Giancarlo Stanton

To Miami
2B Yoan Moncada
SP Henry Owens
1B Sam Travis
3B Michael Chavis
OF Rusney Castillo (Helps offset some of Stanton's contract)

Time will tell...

bagwell368
10-22-2015, 06:38 AM
Call me crazy, and you can call me out on this in a couple months if I'm wrong, but I know DD historically likes new shiny expensive impactful toys on his roster and that he'll go big on a trade this winter killing 2 birds with one stone. Something eerily similar to this.

To Boston
SP Jose Fernandez
LF Giancarlo Stanton

To Miami
2B Yoan Moncada
SP Henry Owens
1B Sam Travis
3B Michael Chavis
OF Rusney Castillo (Helps offset some of Stanton's contract)

Time will tell...

Whatever fan base they have there would be scandalized by a deal where they have to wait around 3-4 years to find out if its any good. I suggest you'd have to trade a pretty good/very good every day player or two plus 3-4 can't miss kids to even get in the door.

Rusney, Betts, Owens, and another two kids they want outside of the untradable 3-4. Even so, they may hang onto GS until the haul is well past ridiculous.

Oakmont_4
10-22-2015, 08:05 AM
Really pissed if Dever's or Moncada gets traded or even Espinoza or Benintendi. There is no reason we cannot get what we need by trading some or all of the group of Owens/Johnson/Margot/Chavis/Kopech/Travis/Barnes/Marrero/Guerra/JBJ/Miley, and other lesser guys within the system.

As for the Mets, they aren't goingto trade any of their young SPs... why trade any of them when it already looks like in year one with all of them they are going to go to the WS. They are in NY, with them getting this far they can easily increase payroll. With their market the more they become relevant the higher amount they can spend. I could see them locking them all up with fair longish term deals they eats up arb years as well as some FA years. It would be stupid not too.

Cespedes may very well resign there. We aren't getting any of their SPs

Someone gets it. When you have a Pitching staff 4 deep and they're all under 30 and controllable for at least 2 more years...You don't break that up after 1 year.

Just like we can improve our weaknesses without dealing Moncada, Devers, Espinoza etc.

The Mets just like us have a deep farm system with few major needs on the MLB roster. There's no reason to trade these types of players when both teams have plenty to offer the next tier down to accomplish filling their needs.

Norieaga
10-22-2015, 01:40 PM
You want Stanton and Fernandez in the same deal? You're looking at Betts/Swihart/Bogaerts/Rodriguez + Moncada + more. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes something like Betts, Swihart, Moncada, and Owens. And a bit more than that. Remember that Fernandez makes little money and Stanton is still an elite power hitter.

Bo Sox Fan
10-22-2015, 05:10 PM
Remember that Fernandez comes cheap and Stanton is an elite power hitter?

... Well that's why I mentioned it silly. Why not save Betts and go with:

SP Anderson Espinoza
C. Blake Swihart
2B Yoan Moncada
SP Henry Owens
OF Rusney Castillo
3B Michael Chavis

But now I'm torn about it even though we'd save Devers, Benintendi, Margot, Guerra, Kopech, etc... etc...

celticsman2009
10-23-2015, 10:30 AM
Untouchable in the farm for me is Espinoza, Moncada and Benintendi. Kopech could be on that list too because he throws heat. I like Owens and Johnson, but neither throw hard, which is disappointing. If we didn't have Miley and Porcello already, I'd say keep them but I'd move them in a deal.

Bo Sox Fan
10-23-2015, 01:28 PM
Untouchable? Betts & Bogaerts for me.

The entire farm system is fair game for the right player(s) that would make this team a legitimate powerhouse for the next 6 years straight. I would cringe at losing Espinoza, Moncada or Benintendi though, depending on the return.

Oakmont_4
10-23-2015, 02:22 PM
Untouchable? Betts & Bogaerts for me.

The entire farm system is fair game for the right player(s) that would make this team a legitimate powerhouse for the next 6 years straight. I would cringe at losing Espinoza, Moncada or Benintendi though, depending on the return.

Nobody is completely untouchable for me.

To even think about moving the following
Betts
Bogaerts
Espinoza
Moncada

I need to hear one of the following names coming back, and that's just to get the conversation started.

Trout
Harper
Goldschmidt
Stanton
Kershaw
Arenaudo
Rizzo
Abreau
Bryant
Correa
Sale
Hernandez
DeGrom
Harvey

So, not untouchable...But none of those names are going anywhere, as close to untouchable as you can get.

Bo Sox Fan
10-23-2015, 03:01 PM
Looks like we can all rest easy on the matter. This just in:

• While the Red Sox are more willing to trade prospects under president Dave Dombrowski than they were under former GM Ben Cherington, the club is said to consider infielder Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Anderson Espinoza off-limits as it looks to upgrade its pitching staff on the trade market.

RedSoxtober
10-23-2015, 04:44 PM
But there is no urgency to move them now with both under control for 2 more years. Syndergard and Matz make hardly anything and have 4 years of control. There is absolutely NO reason to move either in the immediate future.
I think this pretty well captures the main points of disagreement. First, no one has suggested that there is any urgency on the part of the Mets towards dealing one of their young SP. There is only a need to be willing to listen and evaluate your needs against your assets. That's entirely possible for the Mets to do when their stable of young arms runs very deep and their need for offense runs even deeper. Second, players are not only traded when a team's back is against the wall with regard to years of control. Donaldson is a pretty good example: Oakland typically holds onto player assets longer, had several years of control, rebuffed trade offers, and still traded him to the Jays. Holding onto a Boras like Harvey client could even diminish your return because he is almost guaranteed to go to FA.


Let’s take a look at the numbers the year before their contracts
That's a pretty poor way to evaluate the players. Most often players are evaluated on their entire body of work at the time they hit the market so that a single spike does not overvalue them (since walk-year spikes are pretty common). If that's unacceptable, the three-year window that was previously used to compare FAs under the most recent A/B/C FA designation might be more acceptable. Here are both sets of numbers at the time of FA

Cespedes: career .271/.319/.486 (B-R is being whiny about giving me his 3yr)
Ellsbury: 3yr .303/.356/.469, career .297/.350/.439
Granderson: 3yr .244/.338/.504, career .261/.340/.488

Cespedes is closer to Granderson in all three categories than to Ellsbury. If you want to be misled by his walk year then so be it; I won't be swayed by it and won't believe in the least that he will double what Granderson got in either years or dollars.


Not the same.
Wow, you really do not understand examples. The Sox were lucky to finish where they did and it was just as much a product of this years' AL East contenders' weaknesses as it was their approach to the season. IN EXACTLY THE SAME WAY the Mets cannot reasonably expect to play 60% of the season with a negative run differential and have a winning record, nor can they expect to post a similar positive run differential in less that 40% of the season as most of the playoff entrants accumulated all year. If you honestly think that you can expect either of those two from a single trade then you need to look at the far more accomplished Tulo.


Murphy plays 3B. A position where it’s rare to find a good fielder who can hit. Look at the contracts for this position. Here’s his numbers compared to Pablo Sandoval in his final year with SF (1 year younger than Murph)
I think you better go tell the Mets since he's played all but 1.1 innings at 2B in the playoffs.

2015 2B: 69, 3B: 42, 1B: 17
2014 2B: 126, 3B: 16, 1B: 1


Will do. Murph is gone… Don’t include that in next year’s cap number (you have)
Okay, the number is down to $42M.


Mejia – gone …Don’t include that in next year’s cap number (you have)
And now $39M.


From there I’m going off baseball reference which has them at a current payroll of just over $131 mil for 2015. Committed for 2016 they’re at $109 mil. I also projected they move Cuddyer which brings them under $100 mil.
Much simpler to use Cot's Contracts.


I do project they’ll be under $150 mil in 2016 – more around $140-145 – That’s where my $40 mil number comes in – where they need to spend it on 1 OF, 2 BP arms and a UTIL player. The rest of the 40 man can be filled internally (The Mets have a very good farm system (top 10))
This is a bit absurd here since we were discussing how they projected against CURRENT payroll but whatever. I also suggested they could get back to their glory days of $150M payrolls -- which they hit once.


There’s absolutely no reason to blow up a WS contending staff for the “future” and year early. If we’re looking at this team heading into 2017…I’m right there with you exploring a Harvey/DeGrom trade. But they’re too young, too good and still totally cost controlled for 2 years. It’s a year too early to blow it up. They can find a cheaper bat than Cespedes via Free Agency or at the trade deadline.
Trading one player from a group of 7 is hardly blowing it up. If you deal one with the upside improving multiple spots in the batting order then you would be foolish not to consider it. It's not ONLY about losing a player to FA; it's about constructing an entire roster.

papipapsmanny
10-23-2015, 06:34 PM
Soxtober there isn't much logic in what you say. They currently have $60 million in guaranteed contracts on the books for next season. Even after Arb numbers they will be a decent amount under $100 million in payroll.

Again why would after year one of them being together trade one of their young SPs for a position of "need" when the SPs are the major reason why they are in the WS? It just doesn't make sense.

The SP that makes perfect sense for them to trade is niese because he isn't needed and his contract would b nice for them to get rid of.

Then you add the fact that all of their Young SPs are pre-arb with the exception of Harvey who will be entering year one of arb, and that fact that over the next two seasons, some pretty sizeable contracts will be coming off the books, it makes even less sense to trade their young SPs.

Also they are in the NY market, with them being relevant again and attracting attention, fans, and revenue, plus along with inflation. Their payroll could easily go to at least 160+ million.

Matz/Degrom/Harvey/Syndergaard are going nowhere this offseason

RedSoxtober
10-24-2015, 12:50 AM
Soxtober there isn't much logic in what you say. They currently have $60 million in guaranteed contracts on the books for next season. Even after Arb numbers they will be a decent amount under $100 million in payroll.
The $60M in guaranteed contracts for 2016 covers just 5 players. As I outlined above they have 5 arb3 guys guaranteed $14M if they return, an arb2 for $3M, and six arb1s worth at least $12M. They'll need another 23 guys to round out the 40 man roster at MLB minimum $500K a piece for a total of $11.5M. That's $100M to keep the same team together except their FAs. There may be a few arb players whom they choose not to tender a contract but the savings from doing so will not change the value significantly.


Again why would after year one of them being together trade one of their young SPs for a position of "need" when the SPs are the major reason why they are in the WS? It just doesn't make sense.
Because part of the reason they made it to the playoffs is because of the enormous offensive surge they had. From August through September they scored MORE than their cumulative run differential for the season. Neither the enormous surge nor the winning record with a negative run differential can reasonably be expected to repeat.


The SP that makes perfect sense for them to trade is niese because he isn't needed and his contract would b nice for them to get rid of.
There is no doubt whatsoever that Niese would be the easiest for them to trade. He is, however, unlikely to return much to address their needs.


Also they are in the NY market, with them being relevant again and attracting attention, fans, and revenue, plus along with inflation. Their payroll could easily go to at least 160+ million.
Purely conjecture but not impossible. It does ignore their history, however. They've never topped $150M and only topped $140M twice. Also, inflation increases costs but not necessarily salaries.


Matz/Degrom/Harvey/Syndergaard are going nowhere this offseason
Why do you omit both Niese and Wheeler? Does the presence of either one matter? Could, for example, one be traded while the other takes the #5? Or could they slot in at #4 and 5 while another SP is dealt?

OF COURSE the Mets would like to hang onto all of these guys. There's no question at all that every team in MLB would prefer to have a rotation of guys who have all posted an ERA at or below mid-3s. There is no way they will go looking to trade any of them. But that does not mean that teams won't come calling and offering some very attractive packages. When they do, the Mets would be foolish not to evaluate whether a trade that fixes some holes is worth reducing a pitching staff from six accomplished MLB pitchers to five. At the very least they'll need to evaluate the offers against the cost of similar players on the FA market -- which is not very strong.

Honestly, the discussion is no different at all from the debate about which prospects and young players the Red Sox should consider dealing. It differs in form, perhaps, but not substance. If the Red Sox are going to make a deal for an impact arm then it will be one that hurts -- some will argue that it hurts too much. A deal involving one of the Mets club-controlled SPs will have the same reaction.

The logic is pretty simple. Players are like money -- it's nice to have a lot but sometimes you have to spend some in order to get something you need.

papipapsmanny
10-24-2015, 12:11 PM
Still don't see the logic. And inflation does in fact increase salaries. Salaries and costs are the same thing here. Inflation does increase salaries, that is a fact, it already has over the last 10 years, and it will for the next 10 years, and so on.

I omitted niece and wheeler because I wasn't arguing about them, I believe those two could be traded, but for this offseason again Matz/Harvey/Degrom/Syndergaard are absolutely going no where unless they are getting Trout/Harper/Goldy/Stanton

RedSoxtober
10-25-2015, 11:34 PM
PPM and Oakmont: Care you respond?


Another factor to consider is that there are whispers the Mets will listen this offseason to trade offers for one of their three starters, with Harvey’s name mentioned the most frequently. Harvey’s from Connecticut, a New Englander. He’ll pitch Game 1. Is it possible he’ll be in the Red Sox rotation next season? Let’s just say it’s not impossible and leave it for now.Boston Herald

bagwell368
10-26-2015, 06:49 AM
I think Harvey is the most likely impact Met to be dealt. The Mets won't just get a player at a position of need, they'll get a lot more, and may be able to scrub off Granderson who will be 35 in mid March, and is owed $31M over the next two years, and has had two prime years since 2008 ('11 and '15).

So Mets deal both, get cost controlled starting young players, two in the field and one in the rotation plus another promising kid - or two.

Early 90's A's: Mulder, Zito, and Hudson - FA and shortened careers wiped that out.

Look at the '66 Orioles, went to the WS and won with 3 young SP's. McNally (who had a great year in '68, and good years until '73 and was basically done, Palmer who had a sore arm and barely pitched in '67 and didn't pitch in '68, and Bunker who fell off the map after '66.

Throw in FA concerns of today and any team expecting to hold onto its core of young SP's is ignoring history. The Mets will make moves - because they have to, or because they see opportunity - and almost for sure - both.

GrkGawdofWalkz
10-26-2015, 01:08 PM
Okay, can we stop with the Fernandez and Stanton combination talks. I know this is a wish list, but we should remain realistic. Price and Cueto then the possibility if the front office decides to give up the #12 pick for Zimmerman or Grienke.

GrkGawdofWalkz
10-26-2015, 01:19 PM
Personally as it has come out based on pure speculation that Dombrowski and company will be willing to let some of the depth go in the system in the right deal, I feel that it is only fair to believe that he'll be acquiring at least two front line starters this offseason. One via free agency and one via trade. There are so many avenues to go in, it all depends on who's available on the dance card. I would hope that they keep Moncada, Espinoza and Benintendi to be the top of the farm for now, but we'll have to see.

Sonny Gray and Sean Doolittle

For:

Henry Owens, Trey Ball, Pat Light, Raniel Raudes and Luis Alexander Basabe. You could consider adding Margot instead of Ball or Owens.

Controllable arms, and a lottery ticket in Basabe/Raudes. Something to consider!

Bo Sox Fan
10-26-2015, 03:43 PM
I'd assume the Mets will want "win now" offence and if we wait any longer to trade Pedroia before he completely breaks down, well, it will be to late. (See Koji Uehara)

Use Pedy as an integral piece for an ace (Harvey) along with Owens, Margot and a spec further down in the minors. Holt is more than capable as a bridge to Moncada and his left handed bat proved to fit nicely in the 2 hole last season.

R Betts
L Holt
R Bogaerts
L Ortiz
R Ramirez
L Sandoval, etc... etc...

RedSoxtober
10-26-2015, 06:45 PM
I wouldn't trust Holt to play regularly. Two consecutive seasons of severe second half drop-offs suggest that he's not up to the task. He's fine as a UTL/supersub so maybe a platoon with Marrero? Give Marco Hernandez a shot? Neither would need to be a long term solution as suggested.

I think that Margot makes a lot of sense; he could be on the horizon very soon and help them in what's like to be their sweet spot -- 2017-19. I wouldn't hesitate to include Owens but I wonder if the Mets would be that interested. As I've been suggesting, a deal makes more sense for them if it addresses multiple areas of need and SP doesn't really fit that (IMO). Maybe they could use Barnes (MR has been weak spot)? JBJ and Shaw while taking back Cuddyer and moving Duda to the OF again?

Bo Sox Fan
10-26-2015, 10:06 PM
A three way trade probably makes the most sense to get more offence involved (from team C) to flip to the Mets while we use our pitching and positional prospect depth to fill out the trade sheets and bring in Harvey.

I still like signing Zimmerman this winter on top of acquiring a Harvey, even if we're to bring back Buchholz for one more season to bask on the DL. Let Buchy walk next winter and sign Strasburg if he looks well in 2016.

papipapsmanny
10-26-2015, 11:57 PM
PPM and Oakmont: Care you respond?

Boston Herald

Pure speculation, I could literally write "there are whispers the Mets are not moving their top 4 SPs" and I would be just as accurate.

Its simply illogical to me for the Mets to trade one of Harvey/Matz/Syndergaard/Degrom this offseason

Oakmont_4
10-27-2015, 07:34 AM
I think this pretty well captures the main points of disagreement. First, no one has suggested that there is any urgency on the part of the Mets towards dealing one of their young SP. There is only a need to be willing to listen and evaluate your needs against your assets. That's entirely possible for the Mets to do when their stable of young arms runs very deep and their need for offense runs even deeper. Second, players are not only traded when a team's back is against the wall with regard to years of control. Donaldson is a pretty good example: Oakland typically holds onto player assets longer, had several years of control, rebuffed trade offers, and still traded him to the Jays. Holding onto a Boras like Harvey client could even diminish your return because he is almost guaranteed to go to FA.


That's a pretty poor way to evaluate the players. Most often players are evaluated on their entire body of work at the time they hit the market so that a single spike does not overvalue them (since walk-year spikes are pretty common). If that's unacceptable, the three-year window that was previously used to compare FAs under the most recent A/B/C FA designation might be more acceptable. Here are both sets of numbers at the time of FA

Cespedes: career .271/.319/.486 (B-R is being whiny about giving me his 3yr)
Ellsbury: 3yr .303/.356/.469, career .297/.350/.439
Granderson: 3yr .244/.338/.504, career .261/.340/.488

Cespedes is closer to Granderson in all three categories than to Ellsbury. If you want to be misled by his walk year then so be it; I won't be swayed by it and won't believe in the least that he will double what Granderson got in either years or dollars.


Wow, you really do not understand examples. The Sox were lucky to finish where they did and it was just as much a product of this years' AL East contenders' weaknesses as it was their approach to the season. IN EXACTLY THE SAME WAY the Mets cannot reasonably expect to play 60% of the season with a negative run differential and have a winning record, nor can they expect to post a similar positive run differential in less that 40% of the season as most of the playoff entrants accumulated all year. If you honestly think that you can expect either of those two from a single trade then you need to look at the far more accomplished Tulo.


I think you better go tell the Mets since he's played all but 1.1 innings at 2B in the playoffs.

2015 2B: 69, 3B: 42, 1B: 17
2014 2B: 126, 3B: 16, 1B: 1


Okay, the number is down to $42M.


And now $39M.


Much simpler to use Cot's Contracts.


This is a bit absurd here since we were discussing how they projected against CURRENT payroll but whatever. I also suggested they could get back to their glory days of $150M payrolls -- which they hit once.


Trading one player from a group of 7 is hardly blowing it up. If you deal one with the upside improving multiple spots in the batting order then you would be foolish not to consider it. It's not ONLY about losing a player to FA; it's about constructing an entire roster.

I can see this won't end until you have the last word, so I'll make it easy and let you have it. We can monitor this thread and see how it plays out on the various topics discussed. In summation we'll look out for...

Mets trading 1 of their young SP's (Harvey, DeGromm, Syndergard, Matz)
Murphy leaving or staying
Cespedes leaving or staying and his contract (4 years $60 mil or 6 years $120mil)
Mets payroll increase ($140+ mil)
Mets improving offense if Ces and Murph leave (I say it's fine, they just need a decent 3rd OF)

Oakmont_4
10-27-2015, 07:38 AM
PPM and Oakmont: Care you respond?

Boston Herald

Of course they will listen, I've said they would. I also gave you the list of acceptable players they would take for one of them. They'd be stupid not to listen and just say "we're not trading them no matter what". You always listen because you're always trying to improve your team. BUT the offer would have to be over the top for the Mets to pull the trigger and that's why I say it won't happen.

As I've said over and over, the Mets have a 2-3 year window as currently constructed. Unless they get a VERY significant offer for one of them, I would play out those 2-3 years in pursuit of a WS as currently constructed. Adding complimentary players to their current core via Free Agency and trades (not including core players)

RedSoxtober
10-27-2015, 09:09 AM
Of course they will listen, I've said they would. I also gave you the list of acceptable players they would take for one of them. They'd be stupid not to listen and just say "we're not trading them no matter what". You always listen because you're always trying to improve your team. BUT the offer would have to be over the top for the Mets to pull the trigger and that's why I say it won't happen.

As I've said over and over, the Mets have a 2-3 year window as currently constructed. Unless they get a VERY significant offer for one of them, I would play out those 2-3 years in pursuit of a WS as currently constructed. Adding complimentary players to their current core via Free Agency and trades (not including core players)

Great, because that's what I've been saying. The difference is that I think that they're a bit more open to a deal than you do because you you're assuming "as currently constructed" and I would suggest that the construction could be altered to extend beyond 2-3yrs.

RedSoxtober
10-27-2015, 09:23 AM
I can see this won't end until you have the last word, so I'll make it easy and let you have it. We can monitor this thread and see how it plays out on the various topics discussed. In summation we'll look out for...

Mets trading 1 of their young SP's (Harvey, DeGromm, Syndergard, Matz)
Murphy leaving or staying
Cespedes leaving or staying and his contract (4 years $60 mil or 6 years $120mil)
Mets payroll increase ($140+ mil)
Mets improving offense if Ces and Murph leave (I say it's fine, they just need a decent 3rd OF)
I'd suggest the list is this:
Mets engaged in active trade talks regarding one of their young SPs
Murphy re-signs
Cespedes signs a deal for $15M AAV

I have not argued at all that the Mets won't increase payroll. In fact, I suggested that it could well happen. The only thing that I pointed out was that the "big money coming off the books" via FA was illusory due to the large number of non-guaranteed contracts they currently have. When I tried to work out what the actual number looked like, it turned out to be very nearly the same as the current payroll (nominally $100M).

Station 13
10-27-2015, 09:32 AM
Price only cost them cash, which they got plenty. Let's not worried too much about his post season results. Worry about reaching it first. The AL East is a huge gaping hole and opens us to jump in and reclaim it. Price gives us a giant leap, especially his success in this division.