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View Full Version : Mock Playoffs (Conference Finals): 1. Golden State vs 2. San Antonio



Shammyguy3
08-13-2015, 08:04 PM
Once again, users on PSD partook in a fantasy game that "mocked" what real NBA teams did with their off-season. GMs of teams drafted, signed free agents, and traded players to improve their team. Now the playoff brackets are set, and it is up to ALL OF YOU to vote on who should win!!! All players are considered healthy.




1. Golden State (Home Court)
C- Robin Lopez, Karl Anthony Towns
PF- Draymond Green, Amar'e Stoudemire, Quincy Acy
SF- Khris Middleton, Luke Babbitt, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
SG- Klay Thompson, Lou Williams
PG- Steph Curry, Andre Miller, Alexey Shved


2. San Antonio
PG: Tony Parker/Patty Mills/Emmanuel Mudiay
SG: Tony Allen/Gary Neal/Tony Snell
SF: Kawhi Leonard/Bojan Bogdanovic
PF: Lamarcus Aldridge/Carlos Boozer
C: Tim Duncan/Boris Diaw

Raps18-19 Champ
08-13-2015, 08:58 PM
Not sure if it'll do anything for the voters but the rotation will be like a 9 man rotation something like this for the playoffs. Though the distribution in minutes for Towns/Amar'e are pretty flexible (meaning one could maybe play like 30 mins and the other 0 depending on the game).

C- Robin Lopez (30), Karl Anthony Towns (15), Amar'e Stoudemire (3)
PF- Draymond Green(36), Amar'e Stoudemire (12), Quincy Acy, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
SF- Khris Middleton(36), Klay Thompson (12), Luke Babbitt, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
SG- Klay Thompson (24), Lou Williams (24), Alexey Shved
PG- Steph Curry (40), Andre Miller (4), Alexey Shved (4)

Steph guards Tony Allen. Thompson/Middleton will guard Parker/Kawhi. Draymond/Lopez on Aldridge/Duncan. Guess for now, just wanna point out the lack of 3 point shooting on that Spurs starting lineup Best shooter is Kawhi who makes 1 out of 3 from the 3 point line. Parker and Allen have made a combined 48 out of 118 from 3 point line in 131 combined games. I'll try to write something up tomorrow.

kdspurman
08-13-2015, 09:12 PM
I like the combo of Allen/Kawhi to unleash on the Splash Bros defensively

goingfor28
08-13-2015, 09:20 PM
That Spurs defense looking nice

KnicksorBust
08-13-2015, 09:25 PM
Spurs match-up perfectly. TA on Curry and Kawhi on Klay. Plus Duncan and LMA is one of the only frontcourts that could punish Draymond at the 4. Like SAS here.

Allphakenny1
08-13-2015, 10:01 PM
Looks very close, but I will go Warriors here for a few reasons:

1. Spurs have some great defenders, but the Warriors defense is much better top to bottom.

2. Three point shooting would be horrible for the Spurs, while the Warriors would dominate in that area.

3. While the Spurs would be much better offensively in the paint, Tony Allen is so poor on offense that the Warriors could sag off of him and double team in the post making it much more difficult to score in the paint. If they pulled Allen they would get better offensively, but lose the defense.

4. Warriors have home court advantage.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-13-2015, 10:48 PM
Spurs match-up perfectly. TA on Curry and Kawhi on Klay. Plus Duncan and LMA is one of the only frontcourts that could punish Draymond at the 4. Like SAS here.

I'm not 100% sure but I thought Aldridge declined compared to his regular numbers when he's being guarded Draymond. I was going to check for tomorrow's writeup but I'm on my phone right now and really tired ATM.

Sadds The Gr8
08-14-2015, 04:47 AM
Parker (34) / Mills (14)
Allen (20) / Neal (18) / Mills (10)
Leonard (34) / Allen (9) / Bogdanovic (5)
Aldridge (28) / Diaw (15) / Leonard (5)
Duncan (35) / Aldridge (10) / Diaw (3)

I think we can really beat them up down low with LMA and Duncan. Draymond is great on D but the size of LMA will overwhelm him throughout the series. We have elite defenders for the splash bros as KOB mentioned. We all saw what TA was able to do in the playoffs against Klay in the MEM/GSW series, so imagine what Kawhi would do alongside of TA. TA will also guard Curry alot of the time, and harass him as much as possible. The shooting ability of Mills/Neal off the bench should also be enough to relieve pressure if GSW wants to double LMA and/or Duncan

Quinnsanity
08-14-2015, 09:33 AM
Spurs for the reasons others have listed.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-14-2015, 10:06 AM
Parker (34) / Mills (14)
Allen (20) / Neal (18) / Mills (10)
Leonard (34) / Allen (9) / Bogdanovic (5)
Aldridge (28) / Diaw (15) / Leonard (5)
Duncan (35) / Aldridge (10) / Diaw (3)

I think we can really beat them up down low with LMA and Duncan. Draymond is great on D but the size of LMA will overwhelm him throughout the series. We have elite defenders for the splash bros as KOB mentioned. We all saw what TA was able to do in the playoffs against Klay in the MEM/GSW series, so imagine what Kawhi would do alongside of TA. TA will also guard Curry alot of the time, and harass him as much as possible. The shooting ability of Mills/Neal off the bench should also be enough to relieve pressure if GSW wants to double LMA and/or Duncan

I don't know if he'll get dominated down low.

Green is short in height but he has a big body to hold himself inside. Draymond defends the rim well and holds guy to shooting to 46.9% at the rim. And out of every player in the league who's played a minimum for 50 games, Lopez has defended the 8th highest FGA at the rim per game at 8.8 opposition FGA at the rim (league leader defends 10.3 FGA at the rim) highest is and holds guys to a FG% of 48%. So he's clearly tested defending guys at the rim and he's shown a lot of success by holding them to under 50%. Just for comparison, Lopez guards 8.8 FGA at the rim in 27 minutes and other guys ahead of him who defend more attempts at the rim play more minutes than him. Also, out of the 7 guys ahead of him who have defended more FGA at the rim, 4 of them allow a higher FG%. So among the leaders in this stat, he plays less minutes than them (despite comparable FGA defended at the rim) AND holds them to a % that's lower than a good portion of the guys who defend FGA at the rim at least 7.5 times a game).

All of the stuff about Aldridge and Duncan is from BBR combining their regular season and playoffs.

Aldridge took 1527 FGA last year.

LaMarcus Aldridge has taken 309 FGA at the rim so only 20% of his FGA are actually at the rim. He took 248 FGA from 3-10 feet as well with a FG% of 43%. He takes 64% of his FGA from 11 feet and out (970 FGA) . Out of all his FGA, 1140 FGA (almost 75%) were classified as jump shots.

Assuming all his shots from 11 feet and out are jump shots (can't imagine it'd be classified as anything else), then 170 FGA (1140 FGA considered as jumpshots minus 970 FGA 11 feet and out) out of the 557 FGA inside 10 feet are jumpers. So that's even when within 10 feet from the basket, he still insists on taking over 30% of his shots as jumpers.

If he's going to be a jump shooter 75% at the time with 85% (970FGA 11 feet and out divided by 1140FGA classified as jumpshots) of his jumpers being 10 feet and out while possessing a FG% from jumpshots at 39%, then his size advantage over Draymond is minimized to a strong degree. Lamarcus shot 33% the playoffs this year too (43% career playoff FG%) so it's not like he's a dominant force either in the playoffs. And it's not like you can just tell him to go inside more. He's never shown that nature in his game throughout his career. He's always been a jump shooting big man. If Aldridge wants to get his points, it's still possible but majority of the shots will be jumpers so it's not like Aldridge will just start positing up or forcing his way inside and start shooting 60% from the field (I think he averaged below 50% in the 2 games against the Warriors this year).

Tim Duncan has more post skills than Aldridge but more than half of his FGA are jumpers (536 FGA as jumpers out of 908 total FGA) and his FG% is 40.5% from jumpers. Out of his 536FGA from jumpers, he does take 253FGA from 10 feet and out so his remaining 283 FGA froim jumpers are within 10 feet. That means that 43% of his shots inside 10 feet are still jumpers. And when he doesn't take jumpers, we have Lopez guarding him so he doesn't have a size advantage down low. Duncan only took 10.6 FGA per game this season too and 12.9 in the playoffs so it's not like we're going to get dominated when he's not taking as many shots. 40% of his FGA this season and playoffs weren't considered jump shots, out of 10-13 FGA he took this season and playoffs, we're dealing with like 6-8 FGA by jumpers and 4-6 FGA as non jumpers (layup, hook shot, dunk, tip). I suppose you can make Duncan go inside more (since he's shown before he can go pound it inside) but Lopez is a solid defender and limits guys to 48% at the rim.

kdspurman
08-14-2015, 10:17 AM
Parker (34) / Mills (14)
Allen (20) / Neal (18) / Mills (10)
Leonard (34) / Allen (9) / Bogdanovic (5)
Aldridge (28) / Diaw (15) / Leonard (5)
Duncan (35) / Aldridge (10) / Diaw (3)

I think we can really beat them up down low with LMA and Duncan. Draymond is great on D but the size of LMA will overwhelm him throughout the series. We have elite defenders for the splash bros as KOB mentioned. We all saw what TA was able to do in the playoffs against Klay in the MEM/GSW series, so imagine what Kawhi would do alongside of TA. TA will also guard Curry alot of the time, and harass him as much as possible. The shooting ability of Mills/Neal off the bench should also be enough to relieve pressure if GSW wants to double LMA and/or Duncan

Yea LMA has had success against GS the last couple seasons. Averaged 26.5/10 in 2 games against them last year and had big games I believe the previous season, though I don't think Green's role was as big yet

Raps18-19 Champ
08-14-2015, 10:33 AM
Yea LMA has had success against GS the last couple seasons. Averaged 26.5/10 in 2 games against them last year and had big games I believe the previous season, though I don't think Green's role was as big yet

I went back to check on it and he did get 26.5 PPG but his FG% was still under 50% for the 2 games. Majority of the shots too were jumpers again and a lot weren't exactly inside. So I can buy Aldridge performing regularly but he's not going to beat up anyone down low and suddenly going to have a superb showing shooting like 55% from the field or anything like that. They weren't really dominant games either offensively. He averaged 23.4 PPG on 47% shooting for the season last year on 20 FGA. In the 2 games against GSW, he scored 26.5 PPG on 22 FGA with a FG% of 48%.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-14-2015, 11:29 AM
I guess also want to point out that while Allen and Leonard are good defenders (Curry averaged 24.4 PPG FWIW agaisnt the Memphis series), they are playing Mills, Neal and Bogda a good amount of minutes and I don't believe any of them are considered to be great defenders. They are going to have to take out Allen and Kawhi for those guys which means Curry and Thompson (even Lou Williams if Curry and Klay are on the bench) will be defended by below defenders for a good amount of time which could result in open 3s and a run (which we saw time and time again this season and offseason when the opposition's best defenders were on the bench).

Tony Allen allows a whopping 1.13 PPP when defending guys coming off screens which ranks in th 18th percentile :puke:. Leonard slighty better allowing 1.00 PPP ranking in the 29.7th percentile for defending off screen shots. Curry hits 2 FGM off catch and shoot at a rate of 46.2% off catch and shoot, and 1.7 3FGM off catch and shoot at a rate of 49% with an overall catch and shoot eFG% of 66.4, all of which are 1st among PGs (who have played at minimum 50 games and 20 mins or more) last season. Klay Thompson hits 2.8 FGM off catch and shoot at 44.9% and 2.3 3FGM at a rate of 46.5 with an overall catch and shoot eFG% of 63.0, which is 2nd/3rd among all SGs.

Also, if Allen/Kawhi guards Splash bros, then Middleton is being guarded by Parker. Middleton is an elite 3 point shooter (41% from 3 in the regular season) and scores very efficiently as a wing player at 47% from the field while shooting 40% or higher in each of the shot distance breakdown (so 40% at each of: the rim, 3-10 feet, 10 to 16 feet, 16 to inside the 3 point line, outside the 3 point line). Here's his short chart, showing that he's above average from pretty much anywhere and is an elite corner 3 point shooter (plays extremely well to GSW offensive schemes where a lot of guys got open corner 3s). He also ranks at least in the 70th percentile in the following play types: isolation, transition, and cuts (Parker ranks in the 50th-ish percentile or lower when defending isolation. No data for transition/cuts though.). He's in the 94th percentile in spot ups while Parker allows 1.07PPP when defending spot ups, which ranks 26th percentile. He's 60th percentile in post ups while Parker allows 1.23 PPP and is in the 2.3 percentile.

Also, Parker and Kawhi are good players but neither are particularly dominant at scoring the ball (both are mid teens scorers). We're going to have 2 great defenders in Klay and Middleton guarding them. Middleton is an elite and efficient defender (Middleton also had the 10th highest RPM last year and 8th highest DRPM). Middleton also allows just 0.60 points per possession in isolation which places him in the 91.1 percentile and when defending pick-and-rolls, Middleton allows just 0.68 points per possession, which is great when he's guarding Tony Parker during parts of the game. Khris Middleton is a great one-on-one defender too. The league average for an opponent’s field goal percentage against any given defender is 44.3 percent. Opponents only shoot 38.9 percent when guarded by Middleton.

Last year, Milwaukee was never better on both ends than when Middleton is on the floor. The team's net rating goes from plus 10.0 points per 100 possessions when Middleton is on the court to minus 4.9 points per 100 possessions when he sits on the bench, which is the equivalent of going from the second-best team in the league to 25th.

So while their offense is solid and they could try and get their regular numbers, we don't think there's anyone on the Spurs team who'll just dominate and take over. And while they have good defenders, our offense can quite easily hold its on.

kdspurman
08-14-2015, 12:22 PM
I went back to check on it and he did get 26.5 PPG but his FG% was still under 50% for the 2 games. Majority of the shots too were jumpers again and a lot weren't exactly inside. So I can buy Aldridge performing regularly but he's not going to beat up anyone down low and suddenly going to have a superb showing shooting like 55% from the field or anything like that. They weren't really dominant games either offensively. He averaged 23.4 PPG on 47% shooting for the season last year on 20 FGA. In the 2 games against GSW, he scored 26.5 PPG on 22 FGA with a FG% of 48%.

Yea not at all going to beat guys up, definitely more like Dirk in that his form is sort of high and he just shoots over guys

Sadds The Gr8
08-14-2015, 01:04 PM
I don't know if he'll get dominated down low.

Green is short in height but he has a big body to hold himself inside. Draymond defends the rim well and holds guy to shooting to 46.9% at the rim. And out of every player in the league who's played a minimum for 50 games, Lopez has defended the 8th highest FGA at the rim per game at 8.8 opposition FGA at the rim (league leader defends 10.3 FGA at the rim) highest is and holds guys to a FG% of 48%. So he's clearly tested defending guys at the rim and he's shown a lot of success by holding them to under 50%. Just for comparison, Lopez guards 8.8 FGA at the rim in 27 minutes and other guys ahead of him who defend more attempts at the rim play more minutes than him. Also, out of the 7 guys ahead of him who have defended more FGA at the rim, 4 of them allow a higher FG%. So among the leaders in this stat, he plays less minutes than them (despite comparable FGA defended at the rim) AND holds them to a % that's lower than a good portion of the guys who defend FGA at the rim at least 7.5 times a game).

All of the stuff about Aldridge and Duncan is from BBR combining their regular season and playoffs.

Aldridge took 1527 FGA last year.

LaMarcus Aldridge has taken 309 FGA at the rim so only 20% of his FGA are actually at the rim. He took 248 FGA from 3-10 feet as well with a FG% of 43%. He takes 64% of his FGA from 11 feet and out (970 FGA) . Out of all his FGA, 1140 FGA (almost 75%) were classified as jump shots.

Assuming all his shots from 11 feet and out are jump shots (can't imagine it'd be classified as anything else), then 170 FGA (1140 FGA considered as jumpshots minus 970 FGA 11 feet and out) out of the 557 FGA inside 10 feet are jumpers. So that's even when within 10 feet from the basket, he still insists on taking over 30% of his shots as jumpers.

If he's going to be a jump shooter 75% at the time with 85% (970FGA 11 feet and out divided by 1140FGA classified as jumpshots) of his jumpers being 10 feet and out while possessing a FG% from jumpshots at 39%, then his size advantage over Draymond is minimized to a strong degree. Lamarcus shot 33% the playoffs this year too (43% career playoff FG%) so it's not like he's a dominant force either in the playoffs. And it's not like you can just tell him to go inside more. He's never shown that nature in his game throughout his career. He's always been a jump shooting big man. If Aldridge wants to get his points, it's still possible but majority of the shots will be jumpers so it's not like Aldridge will just start positing up or forcing his way inside and start shooting 60% from the field (I think he averaged below 50% in the 2 games against the Warriors this year).

Tim Duncan has more post skills than Aldridge but more than half of his FGA are jumpers (536 FGA as jumpers out of 908 total FGA) and his FG% is 40.5% from jumpers. Out of his 536FGA from jumpers, he does take 253FGA from 10 feet and out so his remaining 283 FGA froim jumpers are within 10 feet. That means that 43% of his shots inside 10 feet are still jumpers. And when he doesn't take jumpers, we have Lopez guarding him so he doesn't have a size advantage down low. Duncan only took 10.6 FGA per game this season too and 12.9 in the playoffs so it's not like we're going to get dominated when he's not taking as many shots. 40% of his FGA this season and playoffs weren't considered jump shots, out of 10-13 FGA he took this season and playoffs, we're dealing with like 6-8 FGA by jumpers and 4-6 FGA as non jumpers (layup, hook shot, dunk, tip). I suppose you can make Duncan go inside more (since he's shown before he can go pound it inside) but Lopez is a solid defender and limits guys to 48% at the rim.

LMA's size does matter if he's being guarded by Draymond. He's a smaller defender to shoot over. LMA's struggles vs Memphis should be taken with a grain of salt. His team was decimated with injuries so he was forced to take a **** ton of shots, and Lillard playing terrible in that series didn't help. This offense will be way better for him to have success in because there is much better passing, and a better Center there to take pressure off of him. LMA's shots would come more efficiently, since he wouldn't have to be depended on to be isolating in the mid-range area.

Speaking of bad, Robin Lopez was that in the playoffs last year. He was limited to 23 mins because he was so ineffective, and outplayed badly by Marc Gasol. He only averaged 5 pts and 4 rebounds. Also the year before vs Houston, Lopez was DESTROYED by Dwight fn Howard in the post, a guy who's post game has always been criticized. Howard averaged 26 and 14 against Lopez in that POR/HOU series, so I'd like to think that Duncan could still be effective down low vs Lopez.

Ebbs
08-14-2015, 01:34 PM
Who'd Pelicans lose to?

Raps18-19 Champ
08-14-2015, 01:39 PM
LMA's size does matter if he's being guarded by Draymond. He's a smaller defender to shoot over. LMA's struggles vs Memphis should be taken with a grain of salt. His team was decimated with injuries so he was forced to take a **** ton of shots, and Lillard playing terrible in that series didn't help. This offense will be way better for him to have success in because there is much better passing, and a better Center there to take pressure off of him. LMA's shots would come more efficiently, since he wouldn't have to be depended on to be isolating in the mid-range area.

He didn't shoot any better against them in the regular season though. 3 inches is also not a big difference when we are talking jump shots here (especially when most are 11 feet and out while he shoots 39% taking them) since you never attempt to block jumpers anyway and Draymond just needs to be physical or contest his face when taking jump shots. Even if I was to buy that Draymond can't guard Aldridge's jumpers, him shooting 42% instead of his regular 39% is not dominant by any means. He might get his own, but he's not going to put up a performance that drastically swings the series.


Speaking of bad, Robin Lopez was that in the playoffs last year. He was limited to 23 mins because he was so ineffective, and outplayed badly by Marc Gasol. He only averaged 5 pts and 4 rebounds. Also the year before vs Houston, Lopez was DESTROYED by Dwight fn Howard in the post, a guy who's post game has always been criticized. Howard averaged 26 and 14 against Lopez in that POR/HOU series, so I'd like to think that Duncan could still be effective down low vs Lopez.

Robin Lopez was tasked to guard Tim Duncan and Aldirdge on Tiago in the playoffs last year and he held his own. Lopez averaged almost 11 and 10 that series in 32 mins. Duncan that series averaged 14 PPG while taking 13 FGA on 46% (and if you look at the shot charts of each game, majority or half of them each game are outside the paint. Short charts for Game 1 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556334), 2 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556335), 3 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556336), 4 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556337), 5 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556338). You can just filter it for Tim Duncan). Lopez allowed 0.83 PPP in posts ups this year so it's not like it's an auto score for Duncan each time. I understand that Duncan is a good scorer inside and I'm not saying we shut him down, but he takes 10-13 FGA per game and half of which will end up being jump shots. If took like 5 FGA per game down low, him making 4 FGM this series instead of the 3 he regularly makes thoruhgout the season/playoffs isn't going to change the series (not that I believe he'll be that much better inside being guarded by Lopez).

Raps18-19 Champ
08-14-2015, 01:48 PM
Who'd Pelicans lose to?

Spurs.

Sadds The Gr8
08-14-2015, 02:43 PM
He didn't shoot any better against them in the regular season though. 3 inches is also not a big difference when we are talking jump shots here (especially when most are 11 feet and out while he shoots 39% taking them) since you never attempt to block jumpers anyway and Draymond just needs to be physical or contest his face when taking jump shots. Even if I was to buy that Draymond can't guard Aldridge's jumpers, him shooting 42% instead of his regular 39% is not dominant by any means. He might get his own, but he's not going to put up a performance that drastically swings the series.

If LMA shoots 42% vs Draymond, we could live with it. Draymond is a great defender but he's also reckless and proven to be foul prone. He was in foul trouble several times in the playoffs (averaged 4.2 FPG last year, 4.7 FPG 2 yrs ago) and also 3rd in personal fouls in the reg season. If he is in foul trouble, which is a legitimate possibility to happen many times this series because of LMA's offensive ability and rebounding (off-ball fouls) you literally have no backup plan to guard him. Amar'e would get roasted in those minutes, and KAT has no experience. LMA could still make a big impact, whether Draymond is guarding him or not.




Robin Lopez was tasked to guard Tim Duncan and Aldirdge on Tiago in the playoffs last year and he held his own. Lopez averaged almost 11 and 10 that series in 32 mins. Duncan that series averaged 14 PPG while taking 13 FGA on 46% (and if you look at the shot charts of each game, majority or half of them each game are outside the paint. Short charts for Game 1 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556334), 2 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556335), 3 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556336), 4 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556337), 5 (http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400556338). You can just filter it for Tim Duncan). Lopez allowed 0.83 PPP in posts ups this year so it's not like it's an auto score for Duncan each time. I understand that Duncan is a good scorer inside and I'm not saying we shut him down, but he takes 10-13 FGA per game and half of which will end up being jump shots. If took like 5 FGA per game down low, him making 4 FGM this series instead of the 3 he regularly makes thoruhgout the season/playoffs isn't going to change the series (not that I believe he'll be that much better inside being guarded by Lopez).

Lopez got killed in the playoffs the past 2 years, and declined across the board this past season. Duncan posting Lopez in that series wasn't a focal point because that Spurs team was based more on drive and kick/3's. Parker dominated Lillard that series (Kawhi was really good as well), so they didn't need to post Duncan...all they needed was pick n roll/pop from him pretty much. Duncan won't be used as a post behemoth here, but he'll still be efficient enough to be a force. LMA taking attention away from him helps matters.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-14-2015, 04:05 PM
If LMA shoots 42% vs Draymond, we could live with it. Draymond is a great defender but he's also reckless and proven to be foul prone. He was in foul trouble several times in the playoffs (averaged 4.2 FPG last year, 4.7 FPG 2 yrs ago) and also 3rd in personal fouls in the reg season. If he is in foul trouble, which is a legitimate possibility to happen many times this series because of LMA's offensive ability and rebounding (off-ball fouls) you literally have no backup plan to guard him. Amar'e would get roasted in those minutes, and KAT has no experience. LMA could still make a big impact, whether Draymond is guarding him or not.

Well him shooting 42% is a long shot to begin with (guys who get defended by Draymond see their FG% drop). In both games Aldridge played against the Warriors, I don't believe Green was never in trouble in. And 4 fouls is manageable too over the course of the game. And like we said, he's going to take a lot of jumpers. Aldridge isn't going to force the contact and Green wouldn't have to play as rough when he's shooting jumpers 3 out of 4 times.

Middleton defended 1 through 4 quite easily last year too. He's not as strong as Draymond but he's more athletic and longer than him and like we said, 75% of Aldridge's shots are jumpers . Of course the offense would change as well because we'd play smaller in those lineups, meaning you have Aldridge guarding Middleton at the 3 point line. Even if we did put Amar'e there, most of his shots will still be jumpers. Not to mention the offensive production of Amar'e would be much more efficient compared to Aldridge's increase of production from his jumpers when Green isn't playing. Not to mention you have no 3 point shooting in your starting lineup so there's always a strong possibility from double teams as well (and if you inserted Mills, Neal and/or Bogda then you have to take out Allen and/or Kawhi at some point as well which will open up the flood gates from 3 for Klay/Curry/Middleton). So if there is a drop is defense since we have to replace Draymond or even Lopez, then we all know the Warriors have strong tools to outscore teams.

Always the opportunity from time to time to outmatch the Spurs' offensive production by have Green/Middleton at C/PF as well and take the drop defensively (though it might not be a big drop if Aldridge/Duncan are settling).


Lopez got killed in the playoffs the past 2 years, and declined across the board this past season. Duncan posting Lopez in that series wasn't a focal point because that Spurs team was based more on drive and kick/3's. Parker dominated Lillard that series (Kawhi was really good as well), so they didn't need to post Duncan...all they needed was pick n roll/pop from him pretty much. Duncan won't be used as a post behemoth here, but he'll still be efficient enough to be a force. LMA taking attention away from him helps matters.

Yea but if we were going by numbers now, Lopez' offensive production was still decent and for half the time Duncan is taking jumpers, we know Lopez can handle him. I did mention how well he defended the rim too and his defense is respectable in post ups too and combined with Duncan not being a dominant post force, it's not that big of a gap.

If the Spurs last year (and what seems like many years before that) were a drive and kick team, and if Duncan has taken a good amount of jumpers the past couple of years, then for all we know he might not even be that efficient inside anymore. And even if he could still be efficient, it's not like the FG% change or FGA taken change would be so drastic that it would completely sway the series. He scores in the low to mid teens (and attempts like 10-12 FGA per game) with a over half of his shots being jumpshots the past few years.

I understand that Aldridge and Duncan are good players and they have good offensive skillsets, but I don't believe that the offensive production would be that much better compared (if it even is better) to what their production over the course of the regular season of playoffs is, especially when they are being guarded by 2 good/great defenders.

Catfish1314
08-14-2015, 05:33 PM
I guess also want to point out that while Allen and Leonard are good defenders (Curry averaged 24.4 PPG FWIW agaisnt the Memphis series), they are playing Mills, Neal and Bogda a good amount of minutes and I don't believe any of them are considered to be great defenders. They are going to have to take out Allen and Kawhi for those guys which means Curry and Thompson (even Lou Williams if Curry and Klay are on the bench) will be defended by below defenders for a good amount of time which could result in open 3s and a run (which we saw time and time again this season and offseason when the opposition's best defenders were on the bench).

This is actually a decent point. Tony Allen isn't used to playing heavy minutes, even in the postseason and in this series he'd be the counter to one of the best conditioned athletes in all of basketball. If he's not doing that, he's still supposed to shadow Klay Thompson. Leonard guarding Curry/Thompson also sounds good but it's not like Khris Middleton is some scrub offensively. You have to figure the Spurs have the sense to sub accordingly when it comes to their defensive stalwarts and the splash brothers, but that's still a significant window for which Curry and/or Thompson could find creating far less of a chore. It also prompts the question of how extensive Tony Allen's role would be in the 4th quarter. Does he still see substantial floor time for his defense on the splash brothers or do you try to fight fire with fire and put in a shooter like Neal to make Curry/Thompson work defensively? Do the Spurs go big and put Kawhi in the backcourt with Parker?

Silent
08-15-2015, 12:16 AM
Spurs in 7

Raps18-19 Champ
08-15-2015, 03:37 PM
This is actually a decent point. Tony Allen isn't used to playing heavy minutes, even in the postseason and in this series he'd be the counter to one of the best conditioned athletes in all of basketball. If he's not doing that, he's still supposed to shadow Klay Thompson. Leonard guarding Curry/Thompson also sounds good but it's not like Khris Middleton is some scrub offensively. You have to figure the Spurs have the sense to sub accordingly when it comes to their defensive stalwarts and the splash brothers, but that's still a significant window for which Curry and/or Thompson could find creating far less of a chore. It also prompts the question of how extensive Tony Allen's role would be in the 4th quarter. Does he still see substantial floor time for his defense on the splash brothers or do you try to fight fire with fire and put in a shooter like Neal to make Curry/Thompson work defensively? Do the Spurs go big and put Kawhi in the backcourt with Parker?

Agrred. I also like how the Warriors GM pointed out that theres no indication Duncan and Aldrdige would dominate in the post considering that previous matchups dont point to Lopez or Draymond being dominated by their bigs on top of the factthat their big take a great amount of jumpers throughout the series and dyring their matchsup the past few years.

Youd have to imagine Klay and Middleton would give Parker ajd Kawhi majour trouble offensive considering neither were the type of player to take over games last year. Not to mention Middleton is a 14 ppg scoer who will be guarded by Parker.

xnick5757
08-15-2015, 05:58 PM
got to go with GSW, don't like the spacing on that spurs team at all. tbh not even sure that they were better than the pellies


Tony Parker is basically an average PG at this point - Curry & Klay would eat him and Allen alive

xnick5757
08-15-2015, 06:03 PM
Also Aldridge is one of (if not the) most overrated players in the NBA. GSW has a superstar in Curry and a player close to that level in Klay.


Yeah the Spurs D is good, but they have to deal with:

Curry: 44% 3PT

Klay: 44% 3PT

Middleton: 41% 3PT


GSW is gonna get theirs on offense. Whoever Parker is playing on (Klay or Curry) is going to roast him.


On top of that, Spurs are going to be playing 3 on 5 on offense. Allen is useless and Green is going to lock either Kawhi or LMA down

Sadds The Gr8
08-15-2015, 06:36 PM
Also Aldridge is one of (if not the) most overrated players in the NBA. GSW has a superstar in Curry and a player close to that level in Klay.


Yeah the Spurs D is good, but they have to deal with:

Curry: 44% 3PT

Klay: 44% 3PT

Middleton: 41% 3PT


GSW is gonna get theirs on offense. Whoever Parker is playing on (Klay or Curry) is going to roast him.


On top of that, Spurs are going to be playing 3 on 5 on offense. Allen is useless and Green is going to lock either Kawhi or LMA down
lol

xnick5757
08-16-2015, 01:26 AM
lol

Parker was one of the worst PGs on defense last season, worse than a traffic cone

It's a huge matchup problem against Curry/Klay

Allen can't guard both

Sadds The Gr8
08-16-2015, 01:59 AM
Parker was one of the worst PGs on defense last season, worse than a traffic cone

It's a huge matchup problem against Curry/Klay

Allen can't guard both

Kawhi can guard one, Allen can guard the other. Parker won't be left to guard him the whole series. We have a bunch of guys to throw at the splash bros. My frontcourt has 2 above average defenders (Aldridge is one of the better bigs off switching PnR's) to go along with the 2 best on-ball defenders in the league. Just saying GSW will get theirs is dumb imo...

kdspurman
08-16-2015, 09:50 AM
Kawhi can guard one, Allen can guard the other. Parker won't be left to guard him the whole series. We have a bunch of guys to throw at the splash bros. My frontcourt has 2 above average defenders (Aldridge is one of the better bigs off switching PnR's) to go along with the 2 best on-ball defenders in the league. Just saying GSW will get theirs is dumb imo...

since their playoff series in 2013, with Green/Kawhi healthy, they have done a fine job pretty consistently keeping either curry or klay below their averages whether scoring or fg %. and allen has done a good job and 1 of the best defenders as everyone knows, he would do great in greens role defensively.

also, parker was not great last year defensively but teams dont try and just go at him 1 on 1. sometimes he has help behind him or stretch armstrong Leonard is in the area to help or sometimes he just stays in front of his man which is all you can ask for

Raps18-19 Champ
08-16-2015, 01:52 PM
got to go with GSW, don't like the spacing on that spurs team at all. tbh not even sure that they were better than the pellies

Tony Parker is basically an average PG at this point - Curry & Klay would eat him and Allen alive

I agree. The spacing is terrible in the starting lineup and if you take out 1 of the wings for scoring, then you're going to dramatically suffer defensively. And it's not like Duncna's ability to block shots is going to help when it comes to Curry/Klay/Middleton considering they shoot so much (at an effective rate).

I get that they got size when it comes to the big man but the GSW GM perfectly pointed out that neither are even dominant in the post and both take jump shots much more than anything else (especially Aldridge who campaigns a lot outside the 10 feet range). So they got a size advantage up front that won't be utilized a lot since they are a mid-range big men duo and wing players who can't shoot. Not to mention that Curry already handled Allen well enough.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-16-2015, 01:58 PM
Also Aldridge is one of (if not the) most overrated players in the NBA. GSW has a superstar in Curry and a player close to that level in Klay.


Yeah the Spurs D is good, but they have to deal with:

Curry: 44% 3PT

Klay: 44% 3PT

Middleton: 41% 3PT


GSW is gonna get theirs on offense. Whoever Parker is playing on (Klay or Curry) is going to roast him.


On top of that, Spurs are going to be playing 3 on 5 on offense. Allen is useless and Green is going to lock either Kawhi or LMA down

Yea I agree. Warriors GM already pointed this out but I'd be more concerned about their offense. Lopez already showed he can handle Duncan pretty easily. Aldridge didn't go off on Green in previous matchups. Then you still have Klay and Middleton who are great defenders at the wing (Middleton top 10 DRPM last year and Klay was great defending wings all year) defending guys who haven't shown that they can take over offensively and many consider to be system players offensively. For all the commotion that great wing defenders in Allen and Kawhi will be defending the Splash Bros (guys who can great their own offense pretty easily), you have great defenders in Middleton/Klay who will be guarding guys who don't have the same ability creating their own offense in Parker/Kawhi.

Raps18-19 Champ
08-16-2015, 08:53 PM
Congrats to SAS.

Sadds The Gr8
08-16-2015, 09:11 PM
Thx

Scoots
08-17-2015, 11:01 AM
I have no idea who wins, but it would be fun to see it.

As the series goes longer it favors the Warriors, but the Spurs could win it in a short series too.

I am very curious to see if the Warriors stop their slow starts in games and series in the real NBA.

Matter.
08-17-2015, 11:23 AM
Spurs for the reasons others have listed.


Spurs for the reasons others have listed.

?????