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View Full Version : Which teams will be fighting for a playoff spot in the East?



FriedTofuz
07-14-2015, 01:04 AM
I see these teams ( in Order) fighting for the 8th seed:

Celtics
Hornets
Magic
Pistons


These teams should be at the bottom of the conference:

Knicks
Nets
Sixers

FOXHOUND
07-14-2015, 02:44 AM
Well, let's look at it:

1) Cleveland Cavaliers - No doubt about this one...

2) Atlanta Hawks - I'm not sure about them. I think their 3+ month stretch of .500 ball was closer to reality than their incredible start. But, being a 60-win team that ultimately still made the ECF, I see no reason not to give them more credit than any other east team.

3) Miami Heat - Oh yeah, I'm buying into that roster. If healthy and clicking, should be the #2 seed.

4) Toronto Raptors - This is where it gets really tricky, IMO. I'm going with Toronto for continuity reasons, and I like the Carroll pickups and others that suggest they will be playing a more teamball orientated game this season.

5) Chicago Bulls - I think the Thibodeau loss is going to kill them in a lot of ways, but ultimately this roster is still way too talented and experienced together to not win a good amount of regular season games.
* - health permitting, very frail roster

6) Washington Wizards - Wall and Beal should continue to improve, and maybe Otto Porter proves some strong playoff games were a flash of things to come, but they continue to be a team moving in two different directions. From the few players of youth on that are growing to the old players like Nene that are just decaying. The loss of Pierce will hurt them big time from a leadership standpoint, although Dudley was a nice replacement for all things not related to the mental game.

-------- This is where I think the battle for spots actually starts.

Milwaukee Bucks - Honestly... I don't like the Greg Monroe signing that much for them. I don't want to compare them directly, but I wouldn't be that surprised to see a Lance Stephenson type effect and outcome to that signing. He just doesn't fit them well on either side of the court, I think he's going to weaken them on both ends. They have a bunch of strong and athletic defenders to swarm around him, but at the end of the day if the anchor is weak it will hurt the D. That was their strength, they were a horrible offensive team. Getting a need as far as a low post scorer is good in theory, I guess. Problem is, when you have a low post scorer you need shooters to space the court and make the D pay for crowding him. The Bucks have none of those past Middleton, and in fact they are terrible shooters as a whole. Not to mention, you just took a team of athletic wings who like to attack the paint and get in the open court and threw a big plodding big in the middle to clog the paint and slow the game down. Spacing nightmare on offense, a literal anchor on D. They gave away their matchup advantage of being so athletic and fast, they're not talented enough offensively to beat teams head on yet. Too young and inexperienced.

Boston Celtics - This is a team that is a non-playoff playoff team last year. Really, much like Milwaukee, they greatly benefited from strong coaching and relative normalcy compared to the rest of the conference in a year filled with injuries and weak teams. They will play hard and compete every night, but this team of role players isn't talented enough to consistently beat teams in a stronger east this season.

Brooklyn Nets - How does Billy King still have a job? They're in a transition year and don't even have their draft pick. Brook Lopez played good for two months to get himself paid and has had major injuries every other season the past four seasons. How does Billy King still have a job?

Indiana Pacers - Paul George is back! The loss of West will hurt big time leadership wise, this team is going through a major shakeup both on that front and from a roster and play style front. Bird said that George will be playing lots of PF, and they're going to have a rookie C manning the middle on a roster that now doesn't have much experience. Lot's of growing pains to be had, and for a team looking to move to a small ball and fast pace style they are missing a vital ingredient - sharp shooting. There isn't a particularly strong deep shooter on the roster past George, and he's the one player that teams have to worry about on offense. He's also the main player the offense should be generated from, and he can't pass to an open him. I also don't like the idea of taking someone who is an excellent perimeter defender and making him defend inside. Really, I fail to see the logic of this direction but Larry Bird knows what he's doing so let's see what he pulls out of his hat.

Charlotte Hornets - I like the Batum pick up, and the venom of Lance is gone, but I think father time and injuries caught up to Al Jefferson quick. What he did two seasons ago was truly remarkable - he averaged 25 PPG over the last 50 games and won two very well deserved Player of the Month awards in March and April. All of that, and it was good for just 43 wins. Another team who will play hard and compete every night, but one that is just not talented enough to win consistently without Jefferson having another career year. Not likely.

Detroit Pistons - Stan is continuing to shape the roster in his image, but I don't think they're there yet. A lot is riding on Drummond to become a Dwight-like presence in the center of it all, but he's just not nearly as good as Dwight. And on that, it's really not fair to compare him to Dwight either. I think Stan will need another year of shaping and grooming of the young talent there.

Orlando Magic - Love their young talent, but they are super young. They're not ready to win yet, they're starting year 1 of Skiles boot camp. The good thing there, Skiles boot camp has proven to be very successful with young rosters. It has also proven to take time, which is something that team has plenty of.

Philadelphia 76ers - ... hahaha. I hope Hinkie starts building up the roster, but we'll see. If he trades Noel midseason because he's not showing he can be an awesome two-way player or something then I don't know what he's waiting for short of out of the box stars.

New York Knicks - I think Phil did a great job of building a team quickly. He got a good mix of vets, strong defensive players with high IQ and players whose skillsets fit very nice in the triangle. The Knicks will take a big jump in the right direction this year, and with a player like Melo that's good enough to carry this squad to the 7/8 seed if they provide the solid rebounding and D they were built to provide. Starting five of vets, bench of talented youth. It's a recipe for either surprising success or the evidently slow growth of a team. If Melo plays at 2012-14 level, I think they will snag one of those two spots. Probably a big if as of July 14th, but we'll see.

TL;DR

1 Cleveland
2 Atlanta
3 Miami
4 Toronto
5 Chicago
6 Washington
--
7/8 (in order of chances IMO) - wouldn't be surprised if both are sub-.500
Boston
New York
Milwaukee
Charlotte
Indiana
Detroit
Brooklyn
Orlando
Philadelphia

Kyben36
07-14-2015, 02:51 AM
I see these teams ( in Order) fighting for the 8th seed:

Celtics
Hornets
Magic
Pistons


These teams should be at the bottom of the conference:

Knicks
Nets
Sixers

Funny, I was thinking about this earlier but decided to wait as FA is still going on, now that most big Time Pieces are gone, I will have my Say

Top 3 in the East,

Cavs (Still have Lebron, Still a top team in the nba)

Bulls (Traded Coach, but still have the same Tallent, should hopefully be up there, have been up there to consistantly to think otherwise)

Bucks (Got Better, Good Caching, Young, getting a New Big man and a Young Parker Back.

Next, are the teams that i see in the next Teir

Hawks (Still good, but they Fell off, lost a Key member in Carroll, and honestly, while a good Team, its hard to beleive that they could be contenders, I think they lack STAR Power there. and team basketball while great, cant save you at the end of series.

Raptors (They Got Carroll, and were a good team last year, so should still be good, But Again, I think they are a Kinda Pretender. but thats just me)

Wizards ( Wizards Lost Peirce, But Added Dudley, Beal has yet to make that Jump I would hope, still young, but injuries are too often too. Love Wall, but I dont know if he can carry that team You Know)

Miami (I Actually think Miami is in a good spot, They need to Stay Healthy though, but they have alot there on paper, if Wade can put together an OK Season, they are in the playoffs IMO)

So, if my predictions are true, that Leaves One Spot Left for the Last Teams, I actually see an allout dogfight though for it.


Celtics (made it last year, but they lack anybody really tallented, they are full of role players, and a good coach, can they make another push)

New York (I actually kinda like their offseason, getting some defensive peices in Affalo and Lopez, but i think that they are Young, With Porzingis, and just will have a hard time finding a playoff spot)

Hornets (Hornets Got Better, but i still am not sure they are guarenteed anything)

Pacers (A New Team essentially, im not exactly sure who they have at Big, but alot of nice Wings in Ellis and George if Healthy, i see them as a Wildcard, cause i have no idea where they are going to land)

Orlando (dont be surprised to see them make a real push here. They have alot of quality guys, Young too, that could surprise alot of people, Payton Oladipo Harris, Gordon and Vucivic are a solid team, lack of shooting, but solid quality)

The Bottom of the Barrel

Brooklyn- After GIVING AWAY Williams, I think they are clearly Rebuild, no mater what you say, they are due. the super team didnt work out, and now while they have some pieces, i think they are Broken.

Detroit - I hate to do this to Detroit fans, but I have to. I like Johnson, but he is too young to really be a good wing, I like Drummond, but he has to have somebody good next to him IMO, cause he lacks offensive ability that i have seen. I like Pope, but he is a role player, I like Jackson, but he isnt good enough to Carry that team. and, well, i dont like Jennings Myself, I miss the days of Detroit being in the playoffs)

76ers- NO MATTER HOW GOOD JAHLIL OKAFOR PLAYS, the 76ers will be Tanking. Still Alot of peices away from being anything real. and their two stars (i use them as lightly as i can, as i mean their two best players) are way to young.

GoferKing_
07-14-2015, 06:09 AM
Every team in the East has a chance to play in PO. Except maybe for 76ers.

warfelg
07-14-2015, 08:37 AM
If I had to go in order:
1) Cleveland
2) Washington
3) (Surprise!!) Milwaukee
4) Toronto
5) Miami
6) Chicago
7) Atlanta
8) (Another Suprise!!!) Orlando

Cleveland is a no brainier. I think Washington has the right mix of vets and youth to take that next step this year. Milwaukee is my shocker, because I think Monroe really opens things up for Parker and all those guys fit nicely around him. Toronto is the best team in a bad division. In Miami, I think Wade gives them enough games and Winslow turns into a nice bench guy. Chicago, IMO, comes down to coaching and Rose/Noah/Gasol/Dunleavy not getting injured/decaying. Atlanta still has the parts but losing Carroll will hurt more than most think. Orlando...just call it a gut reaction.


9) Charlotte-They peaked 2 years ago
10) Indiana-I think they will be trying to overcome too much
11) Boston-I don't buy last years success
12) Detroit-still not enough shooting
13) Brooklyn-too many role players and no star. Could get worse if JJ is traded.
14) Philadelphia- maybe false belief but half court offensive struggles will lessen with Okafor.
15) New York - EC version of Sacramento to me. Can catch lightning in a bottle or could crash and burn.

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 10:14 AM
Knicks will make the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed easily. Melo missed a good chunk of last season and Fisher's rotations screamed tanking.

If they get decent contributions from Porzingis and Grant, then they will win 40 games. You know you will get 12-14 ppg from Afflalo, 10 and 8 from Lopez, and probably 10/6 from O'Quinn. Don't forget that Calderon was injured last year and had it a particularly bad shooting stretch. They have enough talent to win some games as long as everyone buys in. Their D should be greatly improved too.

TrAv=MaGiCfReAk
07-14-2015, 10:32 AM
Knicks will make the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed easily. Melo missed a good chunk of last season and Fisher's rotations screamed tanking.

If they get decent contributions from Porzingis and Grant, then they will win 40 games. You know you will get 12-14 ppg from Afflalo, 10 and 8 from Lopez, and probably 10/6 from O'Quinn. Don't forget that Calderon was injured last year and had it a particularly bad shooting stretch. They have enough talent to win some games as long as everyone buys in. Their D should be greatly improved too.

I literally lol'ed to this post

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 10:54 AM
I literally lol'ed to this post

Good, I like the low expectations.

Non-Knick fans are never comfortable talking about the Knicks objectively.

They fail to realize that they are replacing D-Leaguers and 2nd round picks with capable NBA level players in Lopez, Afflalo, and O'Quinn. Add in the fact that they will return two starters (Calderon, Anthony) and have two very promising rookies who can contribute in their own ways (Grant, Porzingis) and you have a team that can win enough games in a poor eastern conference.

2-ONE-5
07-14-2015, 11:10 AM
If NY is starting to rooks i have a hard time calling them a lock to make the playoffs. Even when Melo was healthy last year they werent winning games. They should be fighting for the 7/8 seed but will anyone really be shocked if they miss out?

I think it will go something like:

1. Cavs
2. Wizards
3. Chicago
4. Raptors (Div winner goes here right?)
5. Hawks
6. Bucks
7. Heat
8. Pistons (edging out Indy)

beasted86
07-14-2015, 11:31 AM
Good, I like the low expectations.

Non-Knick fans are never comfortable talking about the Knicks objectively.

They fail to realize that they are replacing D-Leaguers and 2nd round picks with capable NBA level players in Lopez, Afflalo, and O'Quinn. Add in the fact that they will return two starters (Calderon, Anthony) and have two very promising rookies who can contribute in their own ways (Grant, Porzingis) and you have a team that can win enough games in a poor eastern conference.
What happened the previous season before last though?

Carmelo, Chandler, JR, Shumpert, Hardaway, Bargnani, Stoudemire, Felton, Prigioni, Kmart. That team missed the playoffs in 13/14.

Is that not similar talent wise to the current roster?

So do you think the East is just weaker now to let the Knicks get in now versus missing back then? Coaching better? Or do you think this current roster is that much more talented than that one was?

Serious comparison here with objective questions that are legitimate and non trolling.

IMO based on this comparison Knicks aren't a playoff team and the East is better now than when they missed in 13/14.

beasted86
07-14-2015, 11:36 AM
I literally lol'ed to this post
I think for a lot of fans, especially Knicks fans, homer optimism gets the best of them.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 11:51 AM
Knicks will make the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed easily. Melo missed a good chunk of last season and Fisher's rotations screamed tanking.

If they get decent contributions from Porzingis and Grant, then they will win 40 games. You know you will get 12-14 ppg from Afflalo, 10 and 8 from Lopez, and probably 10/6 from O'Quinn. Don't forget that Calderon was injured last year and had it a particularly bad shooting stretch. They have enough talent to win some games as long as everyone buys in. Their D should be greatly improved too.

Why do you think they'll be "greatly" improved defensively? Robin Lopez is a good defender, but far from an elite rim-protector. O'Quinn is solid too, but again, nothing elite. Unless I'm forgetting someone, literally everyone else is a poor defender. They're going to be a poor defense again.

And while I'm high on Porzingis and Grant, they're rookies. Even if they surprise people they're not going to be helping too much. It's very rare for rookies to contribute any positive value of significance, even the better ones. At best you probably could realisitcally expect a slightly-below replacement level player outta both of them in year one.

The Knicks will be better, but it's still a roster with a ton of holes on it.


I think CLE, ATL, CHI, WAS, MLW, TOR and MIA are pretty clearly playoff teams barring something unexpected happening. That leaves one spot. I could imagine a scenario where any of the remaining teams besides Philly snatch that 8th seed. I do think there are better options out of those remaining 6 teams than NYK, but that's why you play the games.

TrAv=MaGiCfReAk
07-14-2015, 11:53 AM
Double post

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 11:54 AM
What happened the previous season before last though?

Carmelo, Chandler, JR, Shumpert, Hardaway, Bargnani, Stoudemire, Felton, Prigioni, Kmart. That team missed the playoffs in 13/14.

Is that not similar talent wise to the current roster?

So do you think the East is just weaker now to let the Knicks get in now versus missing back then? Coaching better? Or do you think this current roster is that much more talented than that one was?

Serious comparison here with objective questions that are legitimate and non trolling.

IMO based on this comparison Knicks aren't a playoff team and the East is better now than when they missed in 13/14.

Not only are they equally as talented, but they have a roster filled with better shooters and defenders. If they buy into team ball and yes that is a big if with Melo, then they should have no issues scoring. If I remember correctly, they missed the playoffs by one game that year. Stat, Bargs and Chandler missed a combined 90+ games that season as well.

knickfan371
07-14-2015, 11:56 AM
I literally lol'ed to this post



why? the knicks are going to be better than most think people said the New York Yankees were tanking this year as well we see how that is turning out. it might be new york bias that is making people hope the knicks are garbage.

TrAv=MaGiCfReAk
07-14-2015, 11:59 AM
Its been known since before draft that zinger was a good 2-3 years away from contributing and to expect much from 2 rookie anyway is tough. I like the guys they grabbed like robin and KOQ but KOQ never even took ahold of a firm starting role here in orlando with the perfect stage to do so, and if afflalo was so great he wouldnt be on a diff team every year.

I'd be shocked if Knicks finished 10th. it would talk 2 break out rookie performances for them to make it to 7th or 8th

TrAv=MaGiCfReAk
07-14-2015, 12:12 PM
why? the knicks are going to be better than most think people said the New York Yankees were tanking this year as well we see how that is turning out. it might be new york bias that is making people hope the knicks are garbage.


Why? Cause apparently Knicks fan base is smoking something the rest of us aren't ....

beasted86
07-14-2015, 12:13 PM
Not only are they equally as talented, but they have a roster filled with better shooters and defenders. If they buy into team ball and yes that is a big if with Melo, then they should have no issues scoring. If I remember correctly, they missed the playoffs by one game that year. Stat, Bargs and Chandler missed a combined 90+ games that season as well.

Equally talented?

Don't think so at all, but I'm not going to argue with a Knicks homer. I'd just like you to tell me when the last time a team had two rookies playing 20+ minutes a night and made the playoffs.

I'm serious about that request. Maybe it might wake you up from your delusion.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 12:16 PM
why? the knicks are going to be better than most think people said the New York Yankees were tanking this year as well we see how that is turning out. it might be new york bias that is making people hope the knicks are garbage.

yes...the yankees not sucking totally means the knicks won't either.....

....

ManRam
07-14-2015, 12:16 PM
Not only are they equally as talented, but they have a roster filled with better shooters and defenders. If they buy into team ball and yes that is a big if with Melo, then they should have no issues scoring. If I remember correctly, they missed the playoffs by one game that year. Stat, Bargs and Chandler missed a combined 90+ games that season as well.

still waiting to hear who these good defenders are.

flea
07-14-2015, 12:27 PM
2) Atlanta Hawks - I'm not sure about them. I think their 3+ month stretch of .500 ball was closer to reality than their incredible start. But, being a 60-win team that ultimately still made the ECF, I see no reason not to give them more credit than any other east team.


When was this 3 month stretch? They played at a 48 win pace over the last 3 months of the season. They probably aren't an .800+ winning percentage team like they were through January but they should be a virtual lock to push 50 wins (barring injuries). Strengthened bench should make up for the downgrade from Carroll to Bazemore - which, TBH, I think will surprise people by not being much.

nycericanguy
07-14-2015, 12:33 PM
Its been known since before draft that zinger was a good 2-3 years away from contributing and to expect much from 2 rookie anyway is tough. I like the guys they grabbed like robin and KOQ but KOQ never even took ahold of a firm starting role here in orlando with the perfect stage to do so, and if afflalo was so great he wouldnt be on a diff team every year.

I'd be shocked if Knicks finished 10th. it would talk 2 break out rookie performances for them to make it to 7th or 8th

ehh thats just the popular narrative.

The kid played in the toughest league in EURO ball, much tougher than any NCAA and he was still the leading scorer on the team. He's grown to a legit 7'2-7'3 now and he's 233lbs. There's no reason he can't contribute from day 1. Pau came in as a 19 year old rookie weighing 227 lbs and immediately put up 18/9/3/2.

No one's expecting that from KP next year but to say he won't contribute for 2-3 years is just silly. He seems much more NBA ready than Russell or Towns TBH from what we've seen so far.

He seems out to put all those euro stereotypes to sleep.

as for the knicks, who knows how they'll do... it comes down to Chemistry. They will be getting Melo back and adding Lopez, Afflalo, KP, Quinn, Dwill... and hopefully a healthy JC along with Grant... in other words, actual NBA players on the roster.

the 54 win Knicks started Tyson, Melo, Brewer, Kidd & Felton... it was about chemistry with that team. If they play well together and have good chemistry there's no reason they can't be .500. Melo's has had worse rosters at above .500 in NY.

flea
07-14-2015, 12:39 PM
I think he can contribute but I don't think he'll compare to Pau's (future HOFer) impact. Only way I see him getting starter's minutes is if the Knicks bottom out. If they're in playoff contention I don't think a rookie forward and Carmelo Anthony as your major minute forwards is going to be a defensively tenable option. But he's a big who can shoot, even Bargnani had a role as a rookie.

If I were predicting the top 5 drafted players in order of minutes played to end the season I'd go like this (from most to least): Okafor, Porzingis, Russell, Towns, Hezonja.

nycericanguy
07-14-2015, 12:45 PM
I think he can contribute but I don't think he'll compare to Pau's (future HOFer) impact. Only way I see him getting starter's minutes is if the Knicks bottom out. If they're in playoff contention I don't think a rookie forward and Carmelo Anthony as your major minute forwards is going to be a defensively tenable option. But he's a big who can shoot, even Bargnani had a role as a rookie.

If I were predicting the top 5 drafted players in order of minutes played to end the season I'd go like this (from most to least): Okafor, Porzingis, Russell, Towns, Hezonja.

yup... he averaged 11 & 5 and played significant minutes. so did Dirk & Gallo. Gallo's real rookie season he was 19 and averaged 15 & 5. Dirk was a star by his 2nd year.

Yet KP is somehow 2-3 years away from even contributing?...lol

KP seems very poised, he's not super raw... I think he'll play 20-25mpg and be a positive on the court.

FOXHOUND
07-14-2015, 12:47 PM
When was this 3 month stretch? They played at a 48 win pace over the last 3 months of the season. They probably aren't an .800+ winning percentage team like they were through January but they should be a virtual lock to push 50 wins (barring injuries). Strengthened bench should make up for the downgrade from Carroll to Bazemore - which, TBH, I think will surprise people by not being much.

You're right, they had a stretch of .500 ball but it wasn't nearly the three months I had thought I remember that stat being. Oddly enough, yeah I figure they will win 48-52 games. I also agree with you in Carroll to Bazemore, I think he'll replace him nicely.

DanG
07-14-2015, 12:47 PM
Cavs, Bulls, Pacers, Heat, Bucks, Raptors, Wizards, Hawks.

FOXHOUND
07-14-2015, 01:07 PM
still waiting to hear who these good defenders are.

Lopez is a very good defender, ranking as the 6th best PnR defender last year as well as a top 20 rim protecter on par with players like DeAndre Jordan, Pau Gasol and Anthony Davis. His rebounding is also better than it seems, as he's a "box-out specialist" on D much like Marc Gasol and Roy Hibbert. The Trailblazers were not only a better defensive team than the Clippers last year with Lopez anchoring the middle vs Jordan, but they were also a far better offensive rebounding team (in part by design by Doc) and a better defensive rebounding team despite Jordan's 15 REB.

O' Quinn is a relative unknown, and his stats may be skewered a bit by being a bench player, but he actually ranked highly as a rim protector, PnR defender, perimeter defender and ISO defender. He's also a strong rebounder.

Afflalo's D can be overrated by some, he's far from a lockdown defender. Still, he plays solid D and always gives effort which goes a long way on team D.

Derrick Williams is not a good defender... at all.

I hope that helps.

FOXHOUND
07-14-2015, 01:12 PM
I think he can contribute but I don't think he'll compare to Pau's (future HOFer) impact. Only way I see him getting starter's minutes is if the Knicks bottom out. If they're in playoff contention I don't think a rookie forward and Carmelo Anthony as your major minute forwards is going to be a defensively tenable option. But he's a big who can shoot, even Bargnani had a role as a rookie.

If I were predicting the top 5 drafted players in order of minutes played to end the season I'd go like this (from most to least): Okafor, Porzingis, Russell, Towns, Hezonja.

Porzingis will probably be a 18-20 MPG most of the season, if not all of it. He's ready to contribute though. He's actually a good defensive player, and affects many shots with his incredible length and mobility. His real issue this season is going to be on the boards and vs post scorers, but there are very few post scorers left.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 01:23 PM
Lopez is a very good defender, ranking as the 6th best PnR defender last year as well as a top 20 rim protecter on par with players like DeAndre Jordan, Pau Gasol and Anthony Davis. His rebounding is also better than it seems, as he's a "box-out specialist" on D much like Marc Gasol and Roy Hibbert. The Trailblazers were not only a better defensive team than the Clippers last year with Lopez anchoring the middle vs Jordan, but they were also a far better offensive rebounding team (in part by design by Doc) and a better defensive rebounding team despite Jordan's 15 REB.

O' Quinn is a relative unknown, and his stats may be skewered a bit by being a bench player, but he actually ranked highly as a rim protector, PnR defender, perimeter defender and ISO defender. He's also a strong rebounder.

Afflalo's D can be overrated by some, he's far from a lockdown defender. Still, he plays solid D and always gives effort which goes a long way on team D.

Derrick Williams is not a good defender... at all.

I hope that helps.

Afflalo hasn't played solid defense in years.

Lopez and KOQ are above average defenders, Lopez maybe at times more than that. I said as much. After those two, there's nothing. I don't see where this much improved defense is coming from. That's all. I mean, it might be improved...but improved enough to get to 40 wins? I just don't see where the excitement is coming from. Lopez, by the way, has been a contributor on one above-average defense in his career, and that was last year.

We saw how important perimeter defense is in these playoffs. The Knicks essentially have zero of that on their roster.


It will be curious to see how the Williams vs. Porzingis minutes battle pans out. It will be kinda depressing if Porzingis sits on the bench in favor of Williams frequently. There's zero chance Porzingis is getting 30 minutes a game, but hopefully it's in the 20s. It's all kinda moot tho. Even if he is "ready to contribute" he's not going to have a huge positive impact on his team. Even those guys listed above -- Gallo, Bargs, Dirk, etc. -- despite putting up decent counting numbers really didn't have a positive impact on their team. Low-teens PER and net-negative defense for all of them...and that's what Zinger is probably looking at. Role player on limited minutes is the best case scenario...and that's not gonna add a ton of wins.

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 01:35 PM
Equally talented?

Don't think so at all, but I'm not going to argue with a Knicks homer. I'd just like you to tell me when the last time a team had two rookies playing 20+ minutes a night and made the playoffs.

I'm serious about that request. Maybe it might wake you up from your delusion.

Afflalo > Smith/Shumpert
Calderon/Grant > Felton/Prigioni
Lopez = Chandler
O'Quinn/Porzingis/Williams = Martin/Barg/STAT

Oh so now both rookies will automatically play 20 mins a night because you said so ? Grant won't start and I highly doubt he averages more than 20 per game unless Calderon goes down. Porzingis will be in a rotation with Williams, O'Quinn, Lopez, and Melo depending on where he plays. So he will probably average 17/18 per night as well.

And Please tell me again how the 13/14 Knicks roster was a more complete team than this squad ? On paper it looks like an all star team. In reality it was filled with aging veterans who couldn't stay healthy. STAT was a shell of himself, Smith was chucking up shots left and right, Bargs couldn't defend a lick, and somehow they still managed to finish one game out of the playoffs.

FOXHOUND
07-14-2015, 01:37 PM
Afflalo hasn't played solid defense in years.

Lopez and KOQ are above average defenders, Lopez maybe at times more than that. I said as much. After those two, there's nothing. I don't see where this much improved defense is coming from. That's all. I mean, it might be improved...but improved enough to get to 40 wins? I just don't see where the excitement is coming from. Lopez, by the way, has been a contributor on one above-average defense in his career, and that was last year.

We saw how important perimeter defense is in these playoffs. The Knicks essentially have zero of that on their roster.


It will be curious to see how the Williams vs. Porzingis minutes battle pans out. It will be kinda depressing if Porzingis sits on the bench in favor of Williams frequently. There's zero chance Porzingis is getting 30 minutes a game, but hopefully it's in the 20s. It's all kinda moot tho. Even if he is "ready to contribute" he's not going to have a huge positive impact on his team. Even those guys listed above -- Gallo, Bargs, Dirk, etc. -- despite putting up decent counting numbers really didn't have a positive impact on their team. Low-teens PER and net-negative defense for all of them...and that's what Zinger is probably looking at. Role player on limited minutes is the best case scenario...and that's not gonna add a ton of wins.

Portland had the 10th best D this past season. Two years ago, Melo carried the Knicks to 37-wins despite having the 24th ranked D, little offensive help and horrible rebounding. If this squad can be just an average D, 14-18 range, it will do wonders with a healthy Melo. Afflalo had above average defensive numbers last year. Like I said, far from a lockdown, but still far better than what they ran out there after trading Shumpert.

Knicks roster is as so

Calderon - bad defender but good effort
Galloway - good defender and effort
Afflalo - solid defender and good effort
Grant - looks solid and good effort - steals
Melo - solid defender and effort when healthy
Early - looks solid on D, good effort
Porzingis - looks solid on D, good effort
O' Quinn - good defender, good effort
Williams - bad defender and effort
Lopez - good defender and effort
Amundson - solid defender and good effort

For the remaining spots, it looks like Ndour may get one (solid D, good effort, very good shot blocker) and Kirk (solid D, good effort). Porzingis is showing a great ability to alter shots and impact the offense, as they're avoiding attacking him as the game goes on.

The Knicks are lacking the elite defender or two to be a top 10 type defense, but Phil did a good job of compiling sound defensive players who play hard and that alone is enough to be a solid D. That's a big improvement over what they had last year.

Williams will be an experiment, but he's going to learn quickly that Fisher puts a huge emphasis on defense with his rotations. It's a big reason why Hardaway Jr got so little burn last year, and now with more options the leash will be even shorter. If he isn't putting in effort on D, then he will not play.

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 01:55 PM
still waiting to hear who these good defenders are.

Hmmm Lets see:

Galloway
Afflalo
Lopez
O'Quinn

and my favorite: Jerian Grant who played for a coach in college his isn't known for his D and still managed to be effective. Being 6'5'' long and athletic, he is capable of guarding both PG's and SG's.

Crackadalic
07-14-2015, 01:56 PM
If NY is starting to rooks i have a hard time calling them a lock to make the playoffs. Even when Melo was healthy last year they werent winning games. They should be fighting for the 7/8 seed but will anyone really be shocked if they miss out?

I think it will go something like:

1. Cavs
2. Wizards
3. Chicago
4. Raptors (Div winner goes here right?)
5. Hawks
6. Bucks
7. Heat
8. Pistons (edging out Indy)

Division Winners doesn't matter anymore

2-ONE-5
07-14-2015, 02:12 PM
Division Winners doesn't matter anymore

dont they matter for seeiding still just lose out on HCA is the opponent has better record?

MELO 15
07-14-2015, 02:17 PM
If NY is starting to rooks i have a hard time calling them a lock to make the playoffs. Even when Melo was healthy last year they werent winning games. They should be fighting for the 7/8 seed but will anyone really be shocked if they miss out?

I think it will go something like:

1. Cavs
2. Wizards
3. Chicago
4. Raptors (Div winner goes here right?)
5. Hawks
6. Bucks
7. Heat
8. Pistons (edging out Indy)

Melo was never healthy, and what people don't understand is that most of the games they lost were by 3 or less points, and that was with low IQ basketball players who didn't know the meaning of hustle and D, this team will have the opposite of the ladder of last year. All the guys they brought in are guys who hustle every play, play Defense, and are high IQ guys that can understand the system both defensively and offensively.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 02:21 PM
Knicks fans are going to be WILDLY disappointed with Afflalo's defense. Hasn't been even an average defender in years now. He's not a two-way player any more. Hasn't been since he came to Orlando.

I won't speak on Gallo since I have seen VERY little of him. I know some of his player-tracking numbers were impressive, but other advanced metrics suggest otherwise. Either way, that's one perimeter defender that maybe is "good at defense".

North Yorker
07-14-2015, 02:23 PM
Afflalo > Smith/Shumpert
Calderon/Grant > Felton/Prigioni
Lopez = Chandler
O'Quinn/Porzingis/Williams = Martin/Barg/STAT


Holy crap I just got a flashback to a year ago.

Knick fans were saying how with Dallas: Calderon+ Dalembert+ Dirk= 50 wins and playoffs.

Therefore

Calderon+ Dalembert+ Melo= Playoffs.

#Knickfanlogic.

It's simple math, really.

Crackadalic
07-14-2015, 02:34 PM
dont they matter for seeiding still just lose out on HCA is the opponent has better record?

The top 8 records in the conference determines seeding. You can win the division but if your record is lower then another team that isn't a division winner you are still seeded lower

2-ONE-5
07-14-2015, 02:43 PM
Melo was never healthy, and what people don't understand is that most of the games they lost were by 3 or less points, and that was with low IQ basketball players who didn't know the meaning of hustle and D, this team will have the opposite of the ladder of last year. All the guys they brought in are guys who hustle every play, play Defense, and are high IQ guys that can understand the system both defensively and offensively.

Melo seemed plenty healthy to me early on and he played in the AS game. sure they lost a handful of tight ones but what team doesnt? they also got their *** kicked a lot even with him. Two rookies, Lopez and AA isnt enough to make me think theyre a lock to make the playoffs especially with Fisher still coaching.

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 02:49 PM
Holy crap I just got a flashback to a year ago.

Knick fans were saying how with Dallas: Calderon+ Dalembert+ Dirk= 50 wins and playoffs.

Therefore

Calderon+ Dalembert+ Melo= Playoffs.

#Knickfanlogic.

It's simple math, really.

Oh really ? Most Knick fans I knew and talked with said the complete opposite.

So when one person says they didn't care for a movie, do you automatically assume everyone hates that movie ?

#NorthYorkerLogic

beasted86
07-14-2015, 02:53 PM
Holy crap I just got a flashback to a year ago.

Knick fans were saying how with Dallas: Calderon+ Dalembert+ Dirk= 50 wins and playoffs.

Therefore

Calderon+ Dalembert+ Melo= Playoffs.

#Knickfanlogic.

It's simple math, really.
Not really worth arguing.

They thought a team that won 17 games was going to win 50+ last year. There was a long thread of them arguing tirelessly last fall that it was going to happen.

Sure sometimes you over rate your team's talent as a fan and take the overly optimistic approach. But you can be that far off. You can't be 30 wins off.

That tells us it's not just the normal homeroutlook. It's almost blatant trolling at that point.

Knicks fans are trolling saying their team is a playoff team. No way around it. Not even hating at all.

hugepatsfan
07-14-2015, 03:17 PM
I think the top 6 from last year should remain in the playoffs. I think MIA has also vaulted themselves into that group. Seems that's pretty much the consensus. So it comes down to that last spot. BOS was the 7th seed last year with 40 wins but their season total doesn't really mean anything because of how much roster turnover they had. After the trade deadline they played at a 50 win pace. I don't think they would be able to maintain that over a full season but had they played the whole season last year with the roster they settled on I think they would have ended up somewhere between the 40 games they won and the 50 win pace that roster played to. The league will catch up to them scouting wise but they also have a lot of guy who should be better with more experience in the system. They made a couple of improvements in the front court too. I think MIA passed them but I believe they will be able to hold off the other teams in the East but it will be close. IND is getting George back and added some other guys (did lose West and Hibbert, though the latter doesn't really hurt the way he played). CHA and DET improved. NYK improved too. I think BRK will be worse than last year but not dramatically. I think ORL is a dark horse depending on young player development. Being totally honest I'd rather BOS miss the playoffs then get swept in the 1st round so I hope one of those teams pass us. But going in, I'll predict they hold off everyone but MIA.

North Yorker
07-14-2015, 03:21 PM
Oh really ? Most Knick fans I knew and talked with said the complete opposite.


Yes really.

Almost a year ago to the day, have a read.
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?870950-Expectations-for-Next-Season

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 03:29 PM
Yes really.

Almost a year ago to the day, have a read.
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?870950-Expectations-for-Next-Season

Thank you for proving my point for me. It's clear you just looked at the title and first three posts without looking at the countless replies saying "No way" and "playoffs maybe".

FOXHOUND
07-14-2015, 03:33 PM
Melo seemed plenty healthy to me early on and he played in the AS game. sure they lost a handful of tight ones but what team doesnt? they also got their *** kicked a lot even with him. Two rookies, Lopez and AA isnt enough to make me think theyre a lock to make the playoffs especially with Fisher still coaching.

Nah, Melo wasn't healthy at all last year he just played through the injury. He first tweaked his knee in the second game of the season vs Cleveland and it was all downhill from there.

http://nypost.com/2014/11/19/carmelo-anthony-my-left-knee-has-been-hurting-since-game-2/

After that it was some good days and many bad days, his mobility and explosion was nowhere close to normal and it got progressively worse as the season went on.

I don't think anyone would say that the Knicks are a lock for the playoffs. But, in a conference where 38-42 wins is usually a lock for a spot, they've got as good a chance as any of the bubble teams.

I see Boston, New York, Milwaukee and maybe Charlotte all in that 38-42 win range this season with the 7 and 8 spots up for grabs.

North Yorker
07-14-2015, 03:35 PM
Thank you for proving my point for me. It's clear you just looked at the title and first three posts without looking at the countless replies saying "No way" and "playoffs maybe".

I looked through the first 6 pages, nice try though.

Tony_Starks
07-14-2015, 03:37 PM
The best team in College, the WNBA, or a rec league in Compton could all get the 8th spot in the east.

mudvayne387
07-14-2015, 03:37 PM
Not really worth arguing.

They thought a team that won 17 games was going to win 50+ last year. There was a long thread of them arguing tirelessly last fall that it was going to happen.

Sure sometimes you over rate your team's talent as a fan and take the overly optimistic approach. But you can be that far off. You can't be 30 wins off.

That tells us it's not just the normal homeroutlook. It's almost blatant trolling at that point.

Knicks fans are trolling saying their team is a playoff team. No way around it. Not even hating at all.

Amazing ! How about 38 wins got the 8th seed in the East last year. Again, putting words in everyone elses mouths. 38 - 17 = 21. Follow me ? The Knicks would need to add roughly 21 more wins this season to have a shot at the playoffs. If Anthony, Lopez, Afflalo, O'Quinn, Porzingis and Grant don't make them at least 15-20 games better then Phil royally screwed up.

So who in the East really took the next step ? Please enlighten me.

Brooklyn took a step backwards.
Milwaukee was already a playoff team as was Boston.
Indi and Miami are very mediocre.

2-ONE-5
07-14-2015, 03:45 PM
Miami is certainly better than NY, its closer with Indy but they are still better.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 04:03 PM
Amazing ! How about 38 wins got the 8th seed in the East last year. Again, putting words in everyone elses mouths. 38 - 17 = 21. Follow me ? The Knicks would need to add roughly 21 more wins this season to have a shot at the playoffs. If Anthony, Lopez, Afflalo, O'Quinn, Porzingis and Grant don't make them at least 15-20 games better then Phil royally screwed up.

So who in the East really took the next step ? Please enlighten me.

Brooklyn took a step backwards.
Milwaukee was already a playoff team as was Boston.
Indi and Miami are very mediocre.

Miami being "mediocre" is a bit of a stretch. That starting 5 is very solid, and their bench now should be too. Assuming health, that's a good team.

And let's not forget, the Knicks were 10-42 before Melo played his last game. It's not like they were any good with him. Lopez should be good for some wins. Absolutely. Afflalo and O'Quinn for a few more as well. Those other 2? Not convinced. Rookies come with a ton of growing pains. Even rookies who go on to have great careers often contribute very little in their rookie campaigns...even if they post decent ppg/rpg stats. There's so much adjusting that's need that rarely are any rookies ever above replacement level.


I don't really recall what Knicks fans were saying before last season because I wasn't really around here. But it is absolutely the year before that I remember the uproar. Remember this (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/63321/explaining-the-knicks-schoene-projection)?!? Knicks fans went ballistic. 37 wins was right on the mark. I'll be curious to see what those projections and Vegas say before the season starts. I can tell you that the Knicks are 150/1 to win it all, which is tied with Brooklyn and ahead of Charlotte, Orlando and Philly. Indy is 40/1. Boston is 75/1. Detroit 100/1. Not that these things are always right, but public perception definitely appears to be a bit harsher.

Dade County
07-14-2015, 04:06 PM
In no order


Miami
Bulls
Cav's
Bucks
Pistons
Wiz
Hawks
Raps

MELO 15
07-14-2015, 04:18 PM
Nah, Melo wasn't healthy at all last year he just played through the injury. He first tweaked his knee in the second game of the season vs Cleveland and it was all downhill from there.

http://nypost.com/2014/11/19/carmelo-anthony-my-left-knee-has-been-hurting-since-game-2/

After that it was some good days and many bad days, his mobility and explosion was nowhere close to normal and it got progressively worse as the season went on.

I don't think anyone would say that the Knicks are a lock for the playoffs. But, in a conference where 38-42 wins is usually a lock for a spot, they've got as good a chance as any of the bubble teams.

I see Boston, New York, Milwaukee and maybe Charlotte all in that 38-42 win range this season with the 7 and 8 spots up for grabs.

Thank you for that article, you proved to points for me my friend!
1. Melons health during the season
2. The amount of points the Knicks lose by, and in that bucks game they lost by 4.

These Knicks are not the same Knicks as last year. There better.

FriedTofuz
07-14-2015, 04:19 PM
Every year for the past 3 years Ive seen knick fans get offended when ESPN predicts them winning 30 games or so. Every year theyve made excuses about health of a player, to coaching staff, to overrating their young talent ( shumpert and THJR) and acting like the east was so easy of a conference and then they only grinded out 17 wins.
No way are they going to be at .500. How many teams increase their wins by +24? No way that'\s happening. knicks are at the bottom of the conference whether you like it or not.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 04:32 PM
i'm not in love with espn/hollinger's estimated wins added stat, but it's there and it could be worse. if we're talking wins added, it might be worth nothing that afflalo posted a 0.2 ewa last year. in 78 games! basically he was the definition of replacement level. he posted a -0.91 WAR last year too. again, suggesting he was replacement level at best.

can he bounce back? maybe. we'll see. i'd imagine some improvements. but this isn't a fringe all-star caliber player anymore i don't think.



These Knicks are not the same Knicks as last year. There better.

i don't think anyone disagrees with that.

North Yorker
07-14-2015, 05:11 PM
I have been reading mixed opinions on Indy. I guess a lot depends on how PG bounces back, but a broken leg usually is easier to come back from than a ACL/Achilles/foot injury/etc.

Monta will be a decent fit I think. Their big men consist of Lavoy Allen/Jordan Hill/Mahimi/Myles Turner?

I'm thinking around .500

beasted86
07-14-2015, 05:40 PM
This clown essentially agreed on the top 6 teams from last year making it again, and then throws in his "Miami is mediocre" line as if they are one of the teams the Knicks will beat out for one of the final 2 spots.

LMAO! Pure comedy.

ManRam
07-14-2015, 06:17 PM
I have been reading mixed opinions on Indy. I guess a lot depends on how PG bounces back, but a broken leg usually is easier to come back from than a ACL/Achilles/foot injury/etc.

Monta will be a decent fit I think. Their big men consist of Lavoy Allen/Jordan Hill/Mahimi/Myles Turner?

I'm thinking around .500

they're tough for me to get a grasp on. they'll be a bit worse defensively than they were a few years back, but they have the potential to be solid offensively. it definitely mostly hinges on PG and i don't know what i expect from him at all. he's been healthy for a while, but who knows?

GiantsSwaGG
07-14-2015, 06:18 PM
i'm not in love with espn/hollinger's estimated wins added stat, but it's there and it could be worse. if we're talking wins added, it might be worth nothing that afflalo posted a 0.2 ewa last year. in 78 games! basically he was the definition of replacement level. he posted a -0.91 WAR last year too. again, suggesting he was replacement level at best.

can he bounce back? maybe. we'll see. i'd imagine some improvements. but this isn't a fringe all-star caliber player anymore i don't think.




i don't think anyone disagrees with that.

I love my Knicks fans and Foxhound but they're not a playoff team, they win more games but they're not a playoff team!

GiantsSwaGG
07-14-2015, 06:21 PM
I have been reading mixed opinions on Indy. I guess a lot depends on how PG bounces back, but a broken leg usually is easier to come back from than a ACL/Achilles/foot injury/etc.

Monta will be a decent fit I think. Their big men consist of Lavoy Allen/Jordan Hill/Mahimi/Myles Turner?

I'm thinking around .500

Ellis is a cancer, he's a horrible fit imo and ball stopper who's an inconsistent shooter, I'm surprise they didn't go after Matthews him and George are a better fit, they basically have no center and George Hill is still on the team, they'll be fighting for the 8th spot because of their coach

Sanjay
07-14-2015, 08:03 PM
I see these teams ( in Order) fighting for the 8th seed:

Celtics
Hornets
Magic
Pistons


These teams should be at the bottom of the conference:

Knicks
Nets
Sixers

Anthony, Affalo and R. Lopez should be enough to get the Knicks into the playoffs, but as has been the case the past three season they will probably perform below expectation (they should have beaten the Pacers in 2013). Similarly, Wade and Bosh should have been able to set up the Heat for a playoff position and then Dragic and Wade should have cemented that. If these two teams play like they are capable of, the Bucks could fall to the eighth seed.