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jimm120
06-03-2015, 10:06 PM
Which two of the "elite four" picks will bust?

since 2008 (which is when I started to check), 2 to 3 of the top 4 picks usually bust. By Bust, I mean simply bad (thabeet) or a 4th option/Role player. From a top 4 pick, you expect #3 or #2 option on a team potential (if not a star)

With the top 4 picks pretty much set in stone this season, which of these do you think will bust?

Which 2 out of the 4 will probably bust?

Towns
Okafor
Mudiay
Russell

5ass
06-03-2015, 10:24 PM
I voted for all of them because I dont think any of them will be superstars. I'm probably wrong, but its still much more closer to the truth than saying all 4 will be elite.

sens#11fan
06-03-2015, 10:40 PM
I'm willing to bet Mudiay will be a bust out of the four, can't pick out another one though. Anyways, he's athletic and can get to the rim, but I don't know how much his athleticism will help when he is guarded by players that are just as athletic as him. He's also a very streaky shooter, which is bad for the PG position and at times he tries to be too flashy.

JustinTime
06-03-2015, 10:48 PM
All the ones not named Russell will be undeserving of their picks. I could be wrong with Mudiay but i'm pretty sure Okafur is not worthy of a top 2 pick.

LakerShow
06-03-2015, 11:06 PM
I think the safest one is Russell. Though I can't say the rest are going to be busts. There's no thabeet or kwame.

jimm120
06-03-2015, 11:14 PM
I don't mean that they're going to become a super star or even a star. You never know what you'll get.

But as I said above, you expect a top 4 pick to at least be a solid contributor as a 3rd option or a 2nd option on the team. You'd LOVE it to be a #1 option, a star, or a superstar, but you never know. But as long as he's a good player and an important player for the team, then I think he warrants the pick.

That said, I noticed that at least 2 per draft (and sometimes 3 per draft), there were picks which were barely bench players or simply low level role players.

jimm120
06-03-2015, 11:21 PM
Personally:

Mudiay has the HIGHEST bust potential. He also has the potential to be the best player here. But the percentage to being the bust is really high. The percentage to being the star is really low. Technically, I see no middle ground for him. He's either a 10% shot at being a star or 80% chance of busting.

Towns is 2nd for me. If his defensive smarts don't get better (too many fouls and baited into giving fouls) doesn't go down, his defense will suffer. He has "offense" but everything is at beginner stages. What if none of the offense skills develop and his offense stays at 8ppg levels. That said, he will be a beast, ala anthony davis, if he can defelop his defense and offense.

Russell is next. Can he truly be a good nba pg? His slashing ability isn't great and his defense is porous. His shot is good, but not great.

Okafor is last. he's the safest bet. His defense will ALWAYS bring him down. That said, he seems as if he'll be at least a 13+ppg scorer, even at his worst. If his offensive game can actually translate to the nba, then he'll probably be an 18ppg scorer or a 20+ ppg scorer. But again, horrible defense and 13ppg is his low...would that be enough to be a 3rd option on a team or simply a role player

Iron24th
06-03-2015, 11:34 PM
Mudiay is the favourite to be a bust.

GREATNESS ONE
06-04-2015, 02:00 AM
One of the guards, heck maybe both, I think the best guard in this draft will happen Mid-Late 1st round.


Whichever Big gets blessed to play for the Lakers, will be most successful. Not being biased (maybe slightly) honestly though he will be in a good family umbrella to grow under, lots of Lakers greats around to help mentor. Both bigs in my opinion will work beautifully together with Randle.


Minny should take Towns.

C-ross12
06-04-2015, 08:32 AM
One of the guards, heck maybe both, I think the best guard in this draft will happen Mid-Late 1st round.


Whichever Big gets blessed to play for the Lakers, will be most successful. Not being biased (maybe slightly) honestly though he will be in a good family umbrella to grow under, lots of Lakers greats around to help mentor. Both bigs in my opinion will work beautifully together with Randle.


Minny should take Towns.

I think Russell could very well be the best player in this draft. I agree that there should be some good options at Guard later in the first. I think its pretty exciting that some team is going to have a chance to grab Payne, Jerian Grant, RJ hunter and Tyus Jones in the second half of the first round. Pretty good options there.

KarlKevinMalone
06-04-2015, 09:39 AM
Am I the only one who doesn't see it with Towns? The common argument I hear for Towns over Okafor is that Towns is much more athletic and thus has a greater upside but when I've watched Towns play, I've found his athleticism to be above-average at best. He isn't as polished as Okafor in the post and he doesn't have range outside of 10 ft. to make up for it.

2-ONE-5
06-04-2015, 09:43 AM
i dont think the top 4 is set, 3 is but Mudday is no lock to go 4th i dont think but hes the answer to the question here.

kozelkid
06-04-2015, 01:42 PM
Okafor is easily my least favorite of the 4. He's just so "meh" to me. Post play just doesn't have the same value/impact that it used and his lack of defense makes it doubly concerning.

I feel like he's going to be one of those bigs that old time ex-players turned analyst will love to overrate. See: Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe.

jimm120
06-04-2015, 02:23 PM
Am I the only one who doesn't see it with Towns? The common argument I hear for Towns over Okafor is that Towns is much more athletic and thus has a greater upside but when I've watched Towns play, I've found his athleticism to be above-average at best. He isn't as polished as Okafor in the post and he doesn't have range outside of 10 ft. to make up for it.

Okafor, right now, IS better than Towns.

Towns has good, aggressive defense, but he gets called for a lot of fouls because he ends up jumping in the air too often. As for Offense, he has all of the skills to do a lot of things, including hitting mid-range and outside shots. But he doesn't do any of that particularly great (some good and some ok) at the moment.

With Okafor, you KNOW he has great footwork. He's just pretty slow and he doesn't have an outside shot. Plus his defense is poor (though he can rack up steals and blocks).

KarlKevinMalone
06-05-2015, 08:03 AM
Okafor is easily my least favorite of the 4. He's just so "meh" to me. Post play just doesn't have the same value/impact that it used and his lack of defense makes it doubly concerning.

I feel like he's going to be one of those bigs that old time ex-players turned analyst will love to overrate. See: Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe.

Yeah I definitely agree with the Jefferson-Okafor comparison. In a perfect world, you'd want your top-4 pick to better than a Jefferson type player, but I think while Okafor has that ceiling he also has a floor that isn't far down. Is Okafor a franchise-changing piece? No, but he's a guy whose polished skill set is rare and in 3 years could be the second best player on a very good team.

basch152
06-05-2015, 09:07 AM
Okafor is easily my least favorite of the 4. He's just so "meh" to me. Post play just doesn't have the same value/impact that it used and his lack of defense makes it doubly concerning.

I feel like he's going to be one of those bigs that old time ex-players turned analyst will love to overrate. See: Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe.


What? Post play isn't as valuable anymore?

You only think that because you don't see it anymore.

There probably aren't 5 players in the NBA anymore than can reliably score out of the post.

Yanks All Day
06-05-2015, 09:45 AM
I don't see how the answer here isn't Emmanuel Mudiay.

Okafor - Best offensive player of the 4. Could be a top 5-6 offensive center in the NBA right off the bat. Big body, room to improve there. His defense and rebounding could and should improve as he works out and grows into an NBA body. Don't think he's a franchise-changer, but he could certainly be an important piece on a really good team.

Towns - Complete player who can play offense, defense, and rebound. Wasn't impressed by his offensive repertoire in college, but the scouts say he didn't get to show it all off, either. Again, I don't see a franchise-changing talent, but he has all the tools to at the very least be a solid NBA player.

Russell - Legit Big-10 point guard who can score and make plays. Proven against good talent. Big kid at 6'5 with a 6'9 wing span. He's the size of a shooting guard that can legitimately play point guard at the highest levels. He's the safest bet out of all the guards to contribute at an NBA level.

Mudiay - I still don't think he's a top-4 lock. He was a high school standout who chose to play in China for one of a few speculated reasons (high school wasn't NCAA academically ineligible, money, etc.). There's one guarantee here, though: We haven't seen him against good competition. Then he only played 12 games in China, where their defense is high school level at best. Scouts seem to love him because of his athletic ability, but he also shot 50% from the line and 35% from the field in China. I understand drafting based on potential, but I don't see how he's a lock top-4 pick based on anything yet. I'd bet he's the most likely to bust.


Also, I still think the best player in the draft isn't mentioned in most top 4 lists. Justise Winslow is going to be a very good NBA player. He's got the Jimmy Butler/ Kawhi Leonard type build and loves playing defense. In my opinion, he was Duke's best player all year and has an NBA type of game. Loves playing in the post, can shoot, gets out in transition extremely well for a big guy, and finishes strong at the rim. He also plays great defense. That's NBA qualities. If his jump shot was a little more consistent, he'd look like an absolute star waiting to happen.