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View Full Version : Which Superstars will be the fastest to drop off in production in around 4-7 years?



Vampirate
02-26-2015, 03:34 PM
This question is based on performance, not name recognition or past performances so Wade and Kobe would not count.

Which players who perform like Superstars on the court that while you go "WOAH" now, will not look nearly as good in say 4-7 years?

Legendary33
02-26-2015, 04:00 PM
Not necessarily based off age I would have to say Blake Griffin (I know hes improving his overall game but his current athleticism is still his biggest advantage), Dwights also in there due to injuries.

jerellh528
02-26-2015, 04:00 PM
Lebron
Cp3
Melo
Parker
Dwight

JEDean89
02-26-2015, 04:04 PM
Dwight
CP3
Melo and Lebron will be like 37 in 7 years so both of them same with wade and bosh
Marc Gasol

Chronz
02-26-2015, 04:10 PM
7 years is a LONG time. CP3 most definitely. Hell, you may even see Westbrook go the way of Steve Francis by 32, he relies heavily on his athletic ability. But in terms of the next 4 years, I can see CP3 no longer being this productive, I've been impressed with how long hes retained this level of play after his injury but Im hoping for a Tim Hardaway type of decline in that he remains a fringe all-star. Aside from him, Duncan is going to have his KG type of decline eventually, 4 years is a safe bet for that (unless he retires this year).

Bron just entered his CP3 stage where hes going to sustain his current output fairly easily for another 3-4 years IMO. Should be fun to watch his decline/evolution. Unlike most, I actually appreciate watching former greats hang on for as long as possible. Even at his worst (start of the year, nursing minor injuries with a new cast) he was putting up great production. Im sure he can coast a few more years this way, its the playoffs Im concerned with at this point.


I wonder where Monta n Dirk will be.

PurpleLynch
02-26-2015, 08:35 PM
Dirk :(
Melo
Cp3
Howard

...in a four year span

Seven years is a very long time in the Nba.Players like Westbrook and Wall could have a huge drop off according to their style.I really don't know.

JasonJohnHorn
02-26-2015, 09:59 PM
Melo for sure... he seems to be hit with the injury bug and he's already on the wrong side of 30.

Kobe and Rose for obvious reasons.

Of the less obvious I would go with Westy. He relies a lot on his quickness, and his shot isn't as great as it could be. Because he's eating up minutes and has a style that has a high impact on knees and ankles, I epxect injuries to slow him down and make him far less effective, though like after the 4 year mark.

CP3 is an interesting choice that others are making. I believe that his scoring will come down, but he's not likes Isaiah Thomas in that he doens't depend exclusively on his quickness. His key value is his passing and defence. On D, his positioning and ability to read players is key, so while his steals per-game might come down, he'll still be able to defend well because he knows how to read guys and how to position himself. His play making... he's not turnover prone... I expect that to help him out. And alos, he has a solid jump shot, so when he can beat guys off the dribble in a few years, he'll still force them to guard him on the perimeter and will be an effective point guard for that reason. I expect to see his scoring drop off, an steals per game, but barring injury, I expect him to play effective minutes until his late 30's, even if he plays less minutes (like Kidd).

I also see Harden being in the same boat as Westy. If he loses his quickness, he'll struggle to be effective as a scorer and playmaker, and he plays hard, so injuries are likely to creep up.

We saw Kobe go 17 years before injuries were a problem, but he was VERY lucky. For every Kobe, there is a T-Mac and a Grant Hill, and a Derick Rose, and a Penny Hardaway... I see Westy and Harden more along the lines of those guys, than of Jordan and Drexler who were able to play longer because they succeeded in large part to their basketball IQ.

SeoulBeatz
02-26-2015, 10:12 PM
I'm surprised a lot of people are mentioning Melo.

I actually see him being an effective scorer 4-7 years down the road.

His game doesn't rely on athleticism, he should make a Pierce type transition where he can be a 18, 5, 3 type player later on in his career. The shooting touch is the last thing to go, and it's not like Melo attacks the rim on a nightly basis right now in his prime.

His game is made to last IMO

Seizabmc
02-27-2015, 12:19 AM
Do you people understand that melo will most likely still be performing at the same leval he is now simply because his athleticsisum doesn't get him by.

But more so his talent alone.
So he will be able to perform at a high leval until his late 30's .

Unless ofcourse injurys happen.


But my answer to this has to be someone like Blake Griffen.
Because if you take away his athleticsisum than what do you have . Nothing!!

YAALREADYKNO
02-27-2015, 12:29 AM
Dirk would be out of the league by then lol but it's probably lebron (30 yrs) and I could see Blake and Westbrook dropping off after 6-7 yrs unless they adjust there games to be a little more finesse. Hope I'm wrong on Westbrook tho

JV35
02-27-2015, 12:45 AM
Probably most of them. Father Time's a *****.

THE MTL
02-27-2015, 01:36 AM
Probably Westbrook and Dwight cause there game is heavily relient on athleticism.

I honestly see LeBron James evolving to limit the effect of father time. Especially with his weight loss and improving three point shot.

Melos game isn't based on athleticism so i see a Paul Pierce type of decline.

Chris Paul is interesting but i think his passing ability, leadership intangibility, and defense might take him into the Stockton/Kidd years (if he chooses to go that route)

FraziersKnicks
02-27-2015, 09:40 AM
LeBron has definitely changed his game to combat his declining athleticism. He's 30 so obviously when he's 34 he's gonna have declined a bit but as Chronz said, he seems to have entered that cruise control mode that will see him put up 24-26 PPG with 5-6 rebounds and 6-7 assists per game for the next few years. He doesn't just rely on his athleticism any more.

As for Melo, his game also isn't based on athleticism so I think he'll have a gradual decline. He has that big strong body and honey sweet shooting stroke. His mid range game will age very well.

Any super athletic guys who are about 25/26 right now will probably age quite badly if they don't start to change their games. Westbrook and Wall spring to mind.

D-Leethal
02-27-2015, 10:34 AM
Westbrook and Harden probably don't age too well into their 30s.

Goose17
02-27-2015, 11:11 AM
Any super athletic guys who are about 25/26 right now will probably age quite badly if they don't start to change their games.

Yep. This makes sense.

crewfan13
02-27-2015, 11:31 AM
I guess I don't get why people don't think Harden will age well. I know he relies on his quickness to an extent, but he's crafty at drawing fouls and is still a good shooter. He may not be a stud for a long time, but I see his game aging fairly well. Maybe he slowly starts playing off of the ball more and has to pick his spots more, but I think he'll be effective for a decent amount of time.

TheNumber37
02-27-2015, 11:35 AM
Melo's game will be fine cause he can shoot and still post up.
See Paul Pierce.

It's the explosive guards/bigs who will drop off.

D-Leethal
02-27-2015, 11:41 AM
I guess I don't get why people don't think Harden will age well. I know he relies on his quickness to an extent, but he's crafty at drawing fouls and is still a good shooter. He may not be a stud for a long time, but I see his game aging fairly well. Maybe he slowly starts playing off of the ball more and has to pick his spots more, but I think he'll be effective for a decent amount of time.

Because his game is 100% reliant on his explosive first step - thats how he gets to the paint to draw fouls. He also relies heavily on his stepback to create space - another thing thats gonna go with age. He can shoot yes but his game will be heavily watered down once he reaches the point of being an off-the-ball spot shooter.

Goose17
02-27-2015, 11:42 AM
Because his game is 100% reliant on his explosive first step - thats how he gets to the paint to draw fouls. He also relies heavily on his stepback to create space - another thing thats gonna go with age. He can shoot yes but his game will be heavily watered down once he reaches the point of being an off-the-ball spot shooter.

I think he'll age more like Ginobili.