PDA

View Full Version : Decline Signs: Which players are done, which are in "playoff mode"?



Chronz
02-26-2015, 02:17 PM
All players have an ascension, peak and decline, its inevitable. Its also obvious that most vets are on their way down, LeBron James, while in his prime, is technically on the way down. But thats not what Im looking for here. Im looking for players you know aren't in their prime but also may not have that "playoff push" in them.

To me there are 2 possible stages of a players decline. The moment he just cant go full bore for a full season and the moment he cant get up for playoff games anymore. Injuries are the unspoken 3rd possible decline, those can end careers abruptly some times and the are various degrees of all these stages for players.





Im listing guys who have dropped off a ton this year, which do you think can replicate their prior playoff performances?






Tony Parker
Pop is on record, Spurs aint winning chits without TP operating at normal TP levels. His numbers are down significantly from last season(Least efficient season since his disastrous rookie campaign), which at age 32 can foretell rapid decline. The good news, hes been injured and he was pretty pedestrian for last years run, he has set the bar fairly low imo. If he has an even greater decline against playoff comp, then Spurs will have to hope Patty can handle more PT.






Dwight Howard
Like TP, Dwight's offensive efficiency is below league average. Its come at a younger age but hes got plenty of mileage on him. Still, last we saw Dwight in the playoffs, he was a dominating post presence, making great defensive plays on everyone outside of LMA. Statistically, its been his most damning season ever, moreso than his rookie year. But that undersells his defensive improvement. The Rockets should be a great team, and they will be if Dwight can rediscover his playoff self. Have we seen the last of a vintage playoff Dwight?







Manu Ginobili
Yes I know, Manu has been on the decline for awhile now but people undersell how minimally hes declined every year. And everyone thought he was done after his no show in the Finals loss, only to come back and kill it in the post season 1 more time. Hes declined pretty significantly this year tho, he and TP both being on here is partly why San Antonio has dropped off this year. That said, what do you expect from Manu in the playoffs. To look more like he did 2 years ago or last year?






D-Wade
For many, Wade passed this point a long time ago. But Im speaking within range of the fringe All-Star production hes been able to put up in the past few post season runs. His efficiency has predictably fallen off this year, decline isn't the sole factor. Hes been overburdened but hes just gotten the best PG hes had since the days of White Chocolate. Now I know we wont see a vintage peak Wade performance in the playoffs, but relative to his current production, will we get a higher or lower level of play come playoffs? Does it depend entirely on matchups for him?





Dirk
Low key, this may have happened last year. The Mavs took the Spurs to 7, in part because of the defensive attention Dirk drew, but vintage Dirk would have won that series. Overall, he sort of stunk vs SAS. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because it was a tough matchup and he had some quality games but he has to produce. Does he have more playoff quality ball in him?






Rondo
Yes, Rondo is definitely not in his prime anymore but hes always been the type to raise his game (wherever it was at) to a higher level come playoffs. If he clamps down defensively, helps on the boards enough to win a series, I think people will look at the trade positively. If not, then hes probably done as an impact player IMO.

Sanjay
02-26-2015, 06:56 PM
All players have an ascension, peak and decline, its inevitable. Its also obvious that most vets are on their way down, LeBron James, while in his prime, is technically on the way down. But thats not what Im looking for here. Im looking for players you know aren't in their prime but also may not have that "playoff push" in them.

To me there are 2 possible stages of a players decline. The moment he just cant go full bore for a full season and the moment he cant get up for playoff games anymore. Injuries are the unspoken 3rd possible decline, those can end careers abruptly some times and the are various degrees of all these stages for players.





Im listing guys who have dropped off a ton this year, which do you think can replicate their prior playoff performances?






Tony Parker
Pop is on record, Spurs aint winning chits without TP operating at normal TP levels. His numbers are down significantly from last season(Least efficient season since his disastrous rookie campaign), which at age 32 can foretell rapid decline. The good news, hes been injured and he was pretty pedestrian for last years run, he has set the bar fairly low imo. If he has an even greater decline against playoff comp, then Spurs will have to hope Patty can handle more PT.






Dwight Howard
Like TP, Dwight's offensive efficiency is below league average. Its come at a younger age but hes got plenty of mileage on him. Still, last we saw Dwight in the playoffs, he was a dominating post presence, making great defensive plays on everyone outside of LMA. Statistically, its been his most damning season ever, moreso than his rookie year. But that undersells his defensive improvement. The Rockets should be a great team, and they will be if Dwight can rediscover his playoff self. Have we seen the last of a vintage playoff Dwight?







Manu Ginobili
Yes I know, Manu has been on the decline for awhile now but people undersell how minimally hes declined every year. And everyone thought he was done after his no show in the Finals loss, only to come back and kill it in the post season 1 more time. Hes declined pretty significantly this year tho, he and TP both being on here is partly why San Antonio has dropped off this year. That said, what do you expect from Manu in the playoffs. To look more like he did 2 years ago or last year?






D-Wade
For many, Wade passed this point a long time ago. But Im speaking within range of the fringe All-Star production hes been able to put up in the past few post season runs. His efficiency has predictably fallen off this year, decline isn't the sole factor. Hes been overburdened but hes just gotten the best PG hes had since the days of White Chocolate. Now I know we wont see a vintage peak Wade performance in the playoffs, but relative to his current production, will we get a higher or lower level of play come playoffs? Does it depend entirely on matchups for him?





Dirk
Low key, this may have happened last year. The Mavs took the Spurs to 7, in part because of the defensive attention Dirk drew, but vintage Dirk would have won that series. Overall, he sort of stunk vs SAS. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because it was a tough matchup and he had some quality games but he has to produce. Does he have more playoff quality ball in him?






Rondo
Yes, Rondo is definitely not in his prime anymore but hes always been the type to raise his game (wherever it was at) to a higher level come playoffs. If he clamps down defensively, helps on the boards enough to win a series, I think people will look at the trade positively. If not, then hes probably done as an impact player IMO.

I believe Parker has still got it, he's been reluctant to push his hamstring which has resulted in his below-par performances. I have always thought Howard was overrated so I've got nothing to say there. I think Ginobili can still produce in the playoffs, he is the only player you listed who doesn't start. I don't know if Wade can lift himself up again, it has been tough for him carrying for weight without LeBron at his age and injuries. I think matchups could play an important part, if he has to defend an active wing player like Shumpert then it will drain him. I believe Nowitzki can still perform especially in the clutch because he is a shooter and doesn't do a lot on defense. Rondo still shows flashes of brilliance and is still a great defender, but I am not sure if this will get the Mavericks out of the first round in the West.

JasonJohnHorn
02-26-2015, 10:10 PM
Tony Parker

Playoff mode for sure. Pop wants to develop the young guys and rest his stars so that when playoffs roll around, the youngun are prepared and the stars are rest.








Dwight Howard

I dunno if he's done, but he's not in 'playoff mode'. He's not at that age where he needs to rest for the playoffs. He's struggling with injury. Is he done? I think we'll have a better answer next season.




Manu Ginobili

Sadly, I think he's done.





D-Wade
I think Wade is pacing himself. He knows this season is likely a wash, and that pushing to hard will be bad for him and the team in the long run. He doens't have anything to prove because he's established himself, so I'd be more of the impression that he's letting his teammates develop and taking a back seat a little. His FG% is down, I think in part due to the fact that shots are tougher to hit when defenses aren't focused on LBJ. Its at about the rate he hit them on his career before LBJ, so that is not a surprise. I mean, with LBJ, he got a lot of fast break points, which are hard to get on his own. He's getting more assists this year, so it looks like he's trying to make plays. I say playoff mode here.




Dirk
I think any short comings or drop in numbers is due to the fact that he's sharing the ball with Parsons and Ellis. That just makes sense form a coaching stand point. He's not what he was, but he's still great and I'd say this is more playoff mode.


Rondo
I wouldn't say playoff more or done, but rather coming back from injury and getting used to new surroundings.

Next season we'll get a better answer.





Great post btw. Thanks!

ManRam
02-26-2015, 10:17 PM
I don't believe TP is in "playoff mode". I believe he's cooked. He's been putrid. On defense, I'm not sure he could even keep me in front of him anymore. He's having easily his worst season since he was a rookie. I think he's cooked. I've never been one to prematurely write off the Spurs, but I'm writing of Tony Parker. Just watch him play...that's all it will take to see the light. The Spurs are demonstratively better with him on the bench.

The RPM stats rank him as one of the 5 or so worst players in the league this year. His net rating is sickening. Etc. etc. etc.

Chronz
02-27-2015, 01:55 PM
Tony Parker

Playoff mode for sure. Pop wants to develop the young guys and rest his stars so that when playoffs roll around, the youngun are prepared and the stars are rest.
I would normally agree, except for Pop being the guy whos actually trying to challenge TP right now. Putting all this pressure about their title chances hinging on him being who hes been in the past, and this version of TP has never been seen before. I mean, Duncan has had to pick up the slack for the squad on both ends because of his decline IMO.



Dwight Howard

I dunno if he's done, but he's not in 'playoff mode'. He's not at that age where he needs to rest for the playoffs. He's struggling with injury. Is he done? I think we'll have a better answer next season.
I think when you have the kind of injuries hes had, you immediate enter that age. But yeah, the injuries have really hampered him this year, to the point where just being healthy should be his priority. Next year will likely give us our answer but it doesn't look good for the Rox this year.





Manu Ginobili

Sadly, I think he's done.
Beginning of the end for sure.




D-Wade
I think Wade is pacing himself. He knows this season is likely a wash, and that pushing to hard will be bad for him and the team in the long run. He doens't have anything to prove because he's established himself, so I'd be more of the impression that he's letting his teammates develop and taking a back seat a little. His FG% is down, I think in part due to the fact that shots are tougher to hit when defenses aren't focused on LBJ. Its at about the rate he hit them on his career before LBJ, so that is not a surprise. I mean, with LBJ, he got a lot of fast break points, which are hard to get on his own. He's getting more assists this year, so it looks like he's trying to make plays. I say playoff mode here.
I agree, I think hes let his gas off the pedal due to the injuries hes sustained earlier. If we focus on his most healthiest stretches, which happen to coincide with Miami's best stretch, you see a highly productive player, albeit still not efficient.

I honestly hadn't realized how much his FG% has dropped, I usually bypass that metric. As staggering of a decline thats been, it still belies his true decline in efficiency. His TS% is well below the norms he posted even before LBJ but hes no longer the same athlete so its not that the decline is surprising, its that its threatening to enter dangerous grounds if he declines any more (think how Kobe looked this year). His most important metric of efficiency (ORTG) is the lowest of his prime.

Hes clearly over burdened and its gonna take some massive help (namely in the form of Dragic+Bosh), or recovery to make him an efficient player again.




Dirk
I think any short comings or drop in numbers is due to the fact that he's sharing the ball with Parsons and Ellis. That just makes sense form a coaching stand point. He's not what he was, but he's still great and I'd say this is more playoff mode.
It has more to do with his play in the playoffs last year but you're right about him this year. Dirk isn't even struggling, I was just interested in peoples thoughts on his game right now.




Rondo
I wouldn't say playoff more or done, but rather coming back from injury and getting used to new surroundings.

Next season we'll get a better answer.
Perhaps.

kdspurman
02-27-2015, 01:57 PM
I don't believe TP is in "playoff mode". I believe he's cooked. He's been putrid. On defense, I'm not sure he could even keep me in front of him anymore. He's having easily his worst season since he was a rookie. I think he's cooked. I've never been one to prematurely write off the Spurs, but I'm writing of Tony Parker. Just watch him play...that's all it will take to see the light. The Spurs are demonstratively better with him on the bench.

The RPM stats rank him as one of the 5 or so worst players in the league this year. His net rating is sickening. Etc. etc. etc.

Woah, haven't seen you in a while. lol

Verbal Christ
02-27-2015, 02:04 PM
I think finally the Spurs hit that age wall that alot of people said they'd hit 4 years ago. (watch them win it all again this year)

Dwight started out this year on a tear. He was looking awesome, had the spring back in his hop, but then he just started to fall apart. When he is healthy he is still a monster in the paint. His defensive shot percentages are ridiculous, people just dont even attempt close basket shots against him near the rim.

Wade seems to be eyeing a playoff boost, he has shown flashes of his old self.

Dirk is a jumpshooter, doesnt need lift on his shot. Those guys can play till they're 40. If Rondo cant find you open shots in Carlisle system then find a PG who can.

Rondo is an enigma. I've always liked that he holds his teammates to task. Not so much the insubordination towards the coach. He is a triple double machine that just needs the right team. Dallas is not it.

Bruno
02-27-2015, 02:15 PM
Tony Parker
i think he'll have a few great playoff games, but isn't capable of sustaining it most games during a post season run. he's can be a playoff mode guy on some nights, but his consistency will fluctuate.






Dwight Howard
I think Dwight is in playoff mode. if he gets his body right, and has the right match up like he did against Portland, I think Howard can look like 85% of 2009 Howard. I do think his iron man days, and days of carrying teams through the regular season are over.




Manu Ginobili
Manu has one more good playoff run in him.






D-Wade
like Parker, wade can only be 75% of prime Wade even when its time to turn it on, at this point.



Dirk

this is the biggest question mark. Maybe dirk can be vintage dirk in the right match up, because Rick has pushed him out of the post this season. either he has the legs to pull it off in april or he doesn't.




Rondo

Rondo is in playoff mode. but iron man days and regular season lifting won't ever come back.

kdspurman
03-07-2015, 12:37 PM
Parker has looked better as of late, which is obviously a good sign.

Sadds The Gr8
03-07-2015, 12:53 PM
Funny enough, I think all are done. Don't have much confidence in any of these guys at all.

Goose17
03-07-2015, 01:02 PM
I'm not ready to count out Wade, Ginobili or Dirk yet. I don't know if I ever will be.

HeatFan
03-07-2015, 02:26 PM
I would probably add Rose to the list of on the way down, but partially healthy would be definite playoff mode. Wade I think would still be efficient enough to play all star level but not sure it would really matter (at least in these playoffs) since Bosh is out. He still draws attention, fouls and is generally very clutch. What irks me is his continuous complaining after a non-call leaving his team on a 4 on 5 at the other end.

kdspurman
03-10-2015, 09:33 PM
Tony saving his best play for when it matters. That and I think his hammy has greatly improved, which has helped his confidence. Don't think he's near finished just yet. His initial burst is back, finishing in the paint, and doing what he normally does.

His 1 poor game in their last few weeks was on the 2nd night of a b2b

Tony_Starks
03-10-2015, 09:57 PM
Parker, Wade, and Rondo are good. I expect big production from those guys in the playoffs.

Ginobli is like a box of chocolates.

In a quandary about Dirk. This is the best all around supporting cast he's had in a while and should be able to concentrate solely on scoring in the playoffs. If he can't then yeah he's about finished.

Dwight looks like he's on the fast track to the glue factory. Injuries mounting up with no fundamentals to rely on as his knees go further and further south....

dalton749
03-10-2015, 10:00 PM
Lowry has been absolute trash since he got voted into the allstar game, does he count?

ManRam
04-10-2015, 11:16 PM
I don't believe TP is in "playoff mode". I believe he's cooked. He's been putrid. On defense, I'm not sure he could even keep me in front of him anymore. He's having easily his worst season since he was a rookie. I think he's cooked. I've never been one to prematurely write off the Spurs, but I'm writing of Tony Parker. Just watch him play...that's all it will take to see the light. The Spurs are demonstratively better with him on the bench.

The RPM stats rank him as one of the 5 or so worst players in the league this year. His net rating is sickening. Etc. etc. etc.

I'm here to potentially eat crow. I am bumping this post on my own volition. I might be wrong, and if I am, I am totally willing to admit it. Tho his minutes have waned this month, he's been very good the past month and a half. Perhaps he is not cooked. I hope he can shine in the playoffs and prove me wrong. But I don't take back my statement about how bad he was earlier this year.

Joshtd1
04-11-2015, 10:17 AM
I'm here to potentially eat crow. I am bumping this post on my own volition. I might be wrong, and if I am, I am totally willing to admit it. Tho his minutes have waned this month, he's been very good the past month and a half. Perhaps he is not cooked. I hope he can shine in the playoffs and prove me wrong. But I don't take back my statement about how bad he was earlier this year.

I think a lot of his bad play earlier had to do with him having nagging injuries, along with a little bit of decline, with a little bit of coasting topped off with focusing on getting Kawhi more involved.

TP has looked pretty bad at some times I do admit because he does force the issue when he probably shouldn't, but I've also seen where he has just straight up still looked dominant. I do agree I hope we see that in the playoffs, because we will need him.

MTar786
04-11-2015, 07:44 PM
i think manu has been done for 2 years now. i think last year during the playoffs was more of a ressurection for him rather than 'not being done'. with that said, i hope he somehow goes nuts in the playoffs as i want the spurs to repeat.

i thnik parker is on the decline but i expect him to have one final good playoffs.. but by next season he will head downhill pretty fast.

i think duncan should retire if they win it all this season.

dirk is on a pretty big decline

not commenting on dwight 'declining' because i think hes just been a super over rated player throughout his entire career.

oh and btw i wanted to mention i think leonard is gonna have an outstanding playoffs performance

Sadds The Gr8
04-11-2015, 08:01 PM
I'm here to potentially eat crow. I am bumping this post on my own volition. I might be wrong, and if I am, I am totally willing to admit it. Tho his minutes have waned this month, he's been very good the past month and a half. Perhaps he is not cooked. I hope he can shine in the playoffs and prove me wrong. But I don't take back my statement about how bad he was earlier this year.
Didn't he have a bad stretch of like 4 games recently?