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Jeffy25
01-30-2015, 06:24 AM
I see it as:

Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies


What percentage of people feel the Padres will finish over .500?

ManningToTyree
01-30-2015, 11:38 AM
Dodgers 94-68
Giants 88-74
Padres 82-80
Diamondbacks 74-88
Rockies 69-93

ClutchTime
01-31-2015, 05:28 PM
Padres 81-81. Dodgers finish in first.

RamOG
02-01-2015, 01:20 PM
Dodgers 94-68
Giants 88-74
Padres 82-80
Diamondbacks 74-88
Rockies 69-93

Fair prediction. Anything can happen, but I see it pretty much the same way...with maybe the Dodgers winning slightly more even

spliff(TONE)
02-01-2015, 02:40 PM
Dodgers 92 wins
Giants 86 wins
Padres 82 wins
Diamondbacks who cares
Rockies who cares

Dr. Cheesesteak
02-01-2015, 03:03 PM
I think the Padres finish over .500. Heck, I think they may get the WC.

I think Dodgers are obvious favorites. Giants are in an odd-year, so they'll miss the playoffs. D'backs and Rockies look to be the bottom feeders. This leaves Padres a great opportunity to eat up the DBacks and Rockies and maybe have a winning % against SF, and get 2nd in the division. As of now, I have it:

1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies

LASportsFan1996
02-02-2015, 10:10 PM
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

Can you believe the Dodgers have never made the playoffs 3 years on a row? That changes here.

giants73756
02-02-2015, 10:32 PM
Why's that unbelievable?

EddieGaedelMVP
02-02-2015, 10:37 PM
Dodgers (96-66) [Division Winner]
Padres (88-74) [Wild Card]
Giants (86-76)
Diamondbacks (69-93)
Rockies (66-96)

spliff(TONE)
02-02-2015, 11:32 PM
Can you believe the Dodgers have never made the playoffs 3 years on a row?
Very easily, yes.

Ares
02-03-2015, 12:00 AM
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

Can you believe the Dodgers have never made the playoffs 3 years on a row? That changes here.
Will the Dodgers hang up a banner to celebrate such a momentous occasion?

spliff(TONE)
02-03-2015, 12:53 AM
I'm sure it'd be an illustrious banner.

ciaban
02-03-2015, 05:43 AM
Why's that unbelievable?

Because the teams been around for so long. Though the reason most great clubs have trouble with that is because it wasn't until recently that more than 2 or 4 teams got into the playoffs.

Jeffy25
02-03-2015, 03:14 PM
Because the teams been around for so long. Though the reason most great clubs have trouble with that is because it wasn't until recently that more than 2 or 4 teams got into the playoffs.

Cards are on their current longest streak of 4 years in a row in the playoffs.

dodgerdave
02-05-2015, 04:31 AM
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

Can you believe the Dodgers have never made the playoffs 3 years on a row? That changes here.

If the Cincinnati Reds were in the NL East in the 1970's where they should have been in the first place, then the Dodgers would have won more NL West titles that decade. If you look at the standings, they probably would have been in the playoffs every year between 1972 and 1978.

Really, the Reds and Braves had no business being in the NL West just like the Cubs and Cardinals had no business being in the NL East.

spliff(TONE)
02-05-2015, 06:41 AM
Revisionist history.

Jeffy25
02-05-2015, 10:02 AM
If the Cincinnati Reds were in the NL East in the 1970's where they should have been in the first place, then the Dodgers would have won more NL West titles that decade. If you look at the standings, they probably would have been in the playoffs every year between 1972 and 1978.

Really, the Reds and Braves had no business being in the NL West just like the Cubs and Cardinals had no business being in the NL East.

Possibly in 73

But this Dodgers team was winning sub 90 games in multiple of those years. Sub 90 wins isn't normally in the playoffs prior to the 90's

EddieGaedelMVP
02-06-2015, 07:01 PM
It will be fun to see how the Padres and Dodgers and the Padres and Giants match up. The Padres will be a very heavy right handed hitting team, and both the Dodgers and Giants best pitchers are lefties. And the Padres already has success against Kershaw when their lineup was historically bad last year.

theslick1
02-06-2015, 08:20 PM
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies

As for the Padres being >.500, they won 77 games last year without Kemp, Myers, or Upton. If those three don't add up to 5 additional wins, something's gone terribly wrong. I think they'll be a playoff team, given that they have 38 games against two of the worst teams in the NL.

ciaban
02-07-2015, 07:34 AM
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies

As for the Padres being >.500, they won 77 games last year without Kemp, Myers, or Upton. If those three don't add up to 5 additional wins, something's gone terribly wrong. I think they'll be a playoff team, given that they have 38 games against two of the worst teams in the NL.
They might not be done adding pieces either.

SDraiders619
02-08-2015, 03:17 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

GHGHCP
02-08-2015, 03:34 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

The Dodgers will still be in the division when/if Shields is a Padre.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-08-2015, 03:37 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

I wouldn't say hands down. It does create separation between us and the Giants and puts us closer to the Dodgers. We still have some question marks on defense and if certain players can stay healthy.

DigglinDickers
02-08-2015, 04:14 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

I would say the division becomes more interesting.

spliff(TONE)
02-08-2015, 04:33 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down
Doubt it.

filihok
02-08-2015, 06:16 PM
I wouldn't say hands down. It does create separation between us and the Giants and puts us closer to the Dodgers. We still have some question marks on defense and if certain players can stay healthy.
Puts the Padres closer to the Giants - but still a distant 3rd

EddieGaedelMVP
02-08-2015, 06:36 PM
Puts the Padres closer to the Giants - but still a distant 3rd

The Giants are really going to miss Pablo Sandoval. WS Champions or not they won 88 games in the regular season last year. And I think they have regressed more than they have improved this offseason, especially offensively.

spliff(TONE)
02-08-2015, 09:04 PM
I think health (mainly Pagan and the starting rotation) and maybe a mid-season trade for a 3B/LF are gonna be keys for the Giants in 2015.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-09-2015, 03:10 AM
Padres just signed Shields. Things are heating up in this division.

LASportsFan1996
02-09-2015, 08:23 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

What

SfgiantsJD3
02-09-2015, 08:59 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

Well it looks like they may have won the offseason, only 162 more games to go now

Jeffy25
02-09-2015, 09:03 PM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

I wonder if the Padres will win 85 games this year.

Dodgers are the favorites to win the division.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-09-2015, 09:04 PM
I wonder if the Padres will win 85 games this year.

Dodgers are the favorites to win the division.

I don't think they win the division. I like there chances at a wild card. I think if it came down to having to play the Dodgers in the playoffs we will match up well against them head to head.

dodgersuck
02-09-2015, 10:47 PM
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

Can you believe the Dodgers have never made the playoffs 3 years on a row? That changes here.

Thats shocking. I thought the Dodgers always won the World Series by the All-Star break

ClipperFan489
02-10-2015, 10:52 AM
If the padres get James shields they win the division hands down

Shields (while a workhorse) is arguably not even a top 25 pitcher in baseball. Hardly a signing that guarantees anything.

Last year he was 28th in ERA, 26th in Ks, 31st in WHIP, 41st in FIP, 17th in K/BB ratio, he was tied for 5th in IP (his best attribute hands down).

Wil Myers was awful last year.
Matt Kemp and Upton were good offensively, but pretty bad on defense (especially Kemp).

And those guys are now going to be playing in a pitcher friendly park.

I am not all that impressed with the Padres. I think they will be better for sure, but nothing to get crazy over.

Wrigheyes4MVP
02-10-2015, 04:07 PM
I don't think they win the division. I like there chances at a wild card. I think if it came down to having to play the Dodgers in the playoffs we will match up well against them head to head.

There are 4 teams I view as better than the Padres right now. Those 4 are LAD, STL, PIT, and WASH.

SD might be that 5th best team, but SF, NYM, MIA, and the rest of the NL Central teams are all in the mix.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-10-2015, 06:53 PM
There are 4 teams I view as better than the Padres right now. Those 4 are LAD, STL, PIT, and WASH.

SD might be that 5th best team, but SF, NYM, MIA, and the rest of the NL Central teams are all in the mix.

Which is why I said they get a wild card spot. And I don't know if the Pirates are that much better than the Padres are. And if we have to play them in the wild card playoff game we have always had the Pirates number over the last several years.

Jeffy25
02-10-2015, 07:31 PM
Shields (while a workhorse) is arguably not even a top 25 pitcher in baseball. Hardly a signing that guarantees anything.

Last year he was 28th in ERA, 26th in Ks, 31st in WHIP, 41st in FIP, 17th in K/BB ratio, he was tied for 5th in IP (his best attribute hands down).

Wil Myers was awful last year.
Matt Kemp and Upton were good offensively, but pretty bad on defense (especially Kemp).

And those guys are now going to be playing in a pitcher friendly park.

I am not all that impressed with the Padres. I think they will be better for sure, but nothing to get crazy over.

Exactly what I think

flea
02-10-2015, 07:43 PM
I dunno I think that dude sells Shields short - largely because he's including relievers and guys who can't play a full season in evaluating him. Shields also isn't, and never was, a high strikeout pitcher. That means I don't care much about how he ranks in Ks and it means I'm higher on his age 33-35 seasons than I would be for a guy like Verlander or Gio Gonzalez. He's a changeup man.

From 2012-2014 for guys with 550 innings, he's 13th (of 34) in K/BB - ahead of guys like Samardijza, Verlander, Lester, and Weaver. He's 15th (of 34) in ERA and 17th in FIP. So is he a top 10 ace in the league? No, but to even throw that many innings over 3 years means you're both good and durable: the two most important things for an ace to have.

flea
02-10-2015, 07:48 PM
And, if you look at adjusted stats, he compares favorably to guys like Madison Bumgarner, Strasburg, Hamels, and Zimmermann. I'm not saying I'd take him over them (obviously) but his numbers are right there with the aces in the league from the last few years.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-10-2015, 08:48 PM
Shields (while a workhorse) is arguably not even a top 25 pitcher in baseball. Hardly a signing that guarantees anything.

Last year he was 28th in ERA, 26th in Ks, 31st in WHIP, 41st in FIP, 17th in K/BB ratio, he was tied for 5th in IP (his best attribute hands down).

Wil Myers was awful last year.
Matt Kemp and Upton were good offensively, but pretty bad on defense (especially Kemp).

And those guys are now going to be playing in a pitcher friendly park.

I am not all that impressed with the Padres. I think they will be better for sure, but nothing to get crazy over.

Wil Myers was injured most of last year, so that's not a fair indicator of how he will do this year.

Kemp and Upton have actually hit well in Petco. Upton in particular I don't think will be affected too much by Petco because it seems like whenever he hits a home run it clears the fences by a lot. That means a lot in Petco.

ClipperFan489
02-11-2015, 09:17 AM
Wil Myers was injured most of last year, so that's not a fair indicator of how he will do this year.

Kemp and Upton have actually hit well in Petco. Upton in particular I don't think will be affected too much by Petco because it seems like whenever he hits a home run it clears the fences by a lot. That means a lot in Petco.

I was referencing Petco, more in regards to their defensive prowess (or lack there of). If they had issues running down fly balls before, they will have more trouble now.

Also, Myers was playing poorly last year before being injured. I don't expect him to be as bad as last year, but moving to Petco certainly won't help.

ClipperFan489
02-11-2015, 09:29 AM
I dunno I think that dude sells Shields short - largely because he's including relievers and guys who can't play a full season in evaluating him. Shields also isn't, and never was, a high strikeout pitcher. That means I don't care much about how he ranks in Ks and it means I'm higher on his age 33-35 seasons than I would be for a guy like Verlander or Gio Gonzalez. He's a changeup man.

From 2012-2014 for guys with 550 innings, he's 13th (of 34) in K/BB - ahead of guys like Samardijza, Verlander, Lester, and Weaver. He's 15th (of 34) in ERA and 17th in FIP. So is he a top 10 ace in the league? No, but to even throw that many innings over 3 years means you're both good and durable: the two most important things for an ace to have.

If you are referring to me, then no I didn't include relievers or anyone who didn't make the innings requirement in my numbers.

I already mentioned that IP is by far his best attribute, but he is hardly a world beater, and doesn't match up well against most teams #1s (and some #2s)

ClutchTime
02-11-2015, 05:42 PM
Padres going 81-81.

flea
02-11-2015, 06:59 PM
If you are referring to me, then no I didn't include relievers or anyone who didn't make the innings requirement in my numbers.

I already mentioned that IP is by far his best attribute, but he is hardly a world beater, and doesn't match up well against most teams #1s (and some #2s)

What is your cutoff then? He threw the 5th most innings in baseball last year and the most of anyone in baseball over the last 3 years. He is a horse - a modern day Jack Morris. Sabr people have tended to underrate players like this in recent years, though the marginal win concept is slowly trickling its way through the dark and angry recesses of armchair sabremetricians.

Shields outperformed David Price in rWAR both last year and the last 3 years cumulatively. Results-oriented rate stats have them pretty close over the last 3 years. Once again, not saying anyone in their right mind takes Shields over Price going forward but nobody can take that away from him. He's easily a top 25 pitcher in baseball, and depending on how much you rate marginal wins for SPs he could be as high as the lower end of the top 10. Personally I think he's about 15, but I'd have to study the numbers more to give my definitive opinion.

ciaban
02-11-2015, 08:13 PM
There are 4 teams I view as better than the Padres right now. Those 4 are LAD, STL, PIT, and WASH.

SD might be that 5th best team, but SF, NYM, MIA, and the rest of the NL Central teams are all in the mix.

It's a good thing there are two wild card spots, and I'm not sure that STL is better than Pit let alone the Padres.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-11-2015, 08:18 PM
If you are referring to me, then no I didn't include relievers or anyone who didn't make the innings requirement in my numbers.

I already mentioned that IP is by far his best attribute, but he is hardly a world beater, and doesn't match up well against most teams #1s (and some #2s)

The Padres may not have a Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer type pitcher. That having been said our rotation has a lot of depth. Their can't be more than a handful of teams that have a #4 starter that is as good or better than Ian Kennedy. Plus our Bullpen is one of the better bullpens in baseball. If somebody like Josh Johnson can even be a fraction of what he once was, or if Corey Luebke/Casey Kelley can live up to a fraction of the hype they once had as prospects then we could be looking at a solid #5 as well. It looks like Despaigne will be our #5 to start though.

Jeffy25
02-11-2015, 11:02 PM
It's a good thing there are two wild card spots, and I'm not sure that STL is better than Pit let alone the Padres.

I'll happily bet the Cards end up better than the Padres

Jeffy25
02-11-2015, 11:17 PM
I dunno I think that dude sells Shields short - largely because he's including relievers and guys who can't play a full season in evaluating him. Shields also isn't, and never was, a high strikeout pitcher. That means I don't care much about how he ranks in Ks and it means I'm higher on his age 33-35 seasons than I would be for a guy like Verlander or Gio Gonzalez. He's a changeup man.

From 2012-2014 for guys with 550 innings, he's 13th (of 34) in K/BB - ahead of guys like Samardijza, Verlander, Lester, and Weaver. He's 15th (of 34) in ERA and 17th in FIP. So is he a top 10 ace in the league? No, but to even throw that many innings over 3 years means you're both good and durable: the two most important things for an ace to have.


2014 numbers

Shields was 5th in total innings pitched

But let's look at him compared to the rest of the pitchers in the league that pitched 160+ innings (min requirement for ERA title)

FIP - tied for 39th with Francisco Liriano
ERA - 26th
-FIP - tied for 31st with the likes of Mark Buehrle, Sonny Gray and Chris Archer
-ERA - tied for 22nd with Sonny Gray


Shields is an above league average, innings eating machine. He is durable, and a good workhorse. But he isn't really a TORP. He is a good number 2 to have in your rotation. But I wouldn't want him to be my ace on a playoff caliber team. I would want someone better to lead the rotation ahead of him.

flea
02-11-2015, 11:30 PM
From 2012-2014 he's got a better ERA- than Gio Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Mat Latos, Jered Weaver, Jeff Samardijza, and Madison Bumgarner. Ditto for FIP- except the high-K guys (Lester/Gio/Verlander). He's right there with Wainwright, Sanchez, Kuroda, Stasburg, and Lee over that timeframe.

We just saw Bumgarner lead a team to a WS as an ace - no idea why Shields can't. I get that he doesn't put up the K numbers, but neither does Bumgarner or Wainwright particularly (he's .5% off of Wainwright's K rate and they're both about 3% behind Bumgarner over the sample).

Now you can say you believe Shields is too old and will decline, if that's your point of view, but he's younger than Wainwright and personally I wouldn't mind either one as my #1 in the postseason. I don't think their adjusted stats are going to be terribly different from one another over the next 2 seasons.

spliff(TONE)
02-11-2015, 11:40 PM
Shields' performance over the last years is def nothing to scoff at. Great pitcher to have in your rotation. The age and workload are the big (and legitimate) concerns.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if his deal ends up working out better than those of Lester and Scherzer.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-12-2015, 03:26 AM
Shields' performance over the last years is def nothing to scoff at. Great pitcher to have in your rotation. The age and workload are the big (and legitimate) concerns.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if his deal ends up working out better than those of Lester and Scherzer.

I personally think the Padres got better value out of their contract with Shields than the Cubs and Nationals got out of Scherzer and Lester. The Nationals have to pay Scherzer much more $ per year than the Padres do and they have to keep Scherzer 3 years longer than the Padres do. There is even less certainty that Scherzer will be able to pitch at a high level into his 30's than their is for Shields. The Cubs are paying Lester more money per year with a longer contract. Is Lester really that much better than Shields is? If you look at career FIP between the two pitchers you have Lester at only .2 higher. While that is somewhat significantly better is it really so much better that the Cubs having to pay him 7-8 million more per year for 2 years longer make it a better value pick up? Everyone can make their own decisions but if you ask me I think the Padres got the best long term deal out of this. I think the Nationals and Cubs are more likely to have long term regrets out of these signings than the Padres are.

HangingSlider84
02-12-2015, 03:57 AM
The Padres offseason is the paper champion, so they'll be 3rd place for sure. Tough to pick between the Dodgers and Giants but I think the Dodgers will take it and the Giants will have a slight down year that they might not see the Wild Card either.

LASportsFan1996
02-15-2015, 07:24 PM
Thats shocking. I thought the Dodgers always won the World Series by the All-Star break.

Riveting stuff.

Speaking of which, it would be nice to see the Dodgers not be 10 games out in early June this year, not that it has mattered the last 2 years, but not good for my blood pressure.

ciaban
02-15-2015, 07:42 PM
Shields' performance over the last years is def nothing to scoff at. Great pitcher to have in your rotation. The age and workload are the big (and legitimate) concerns.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if his deal ends up working out better than those of Lester and Scherzer.
It's a little weird that the work load is a concern, 8 seasons with 200+ innings shows he's healthy and knows how to stay healthy. A player his age who has been this consistent should relieve those worries.

spliff(TONE)
02-15-2015, 09:38 PM
That's one line of thought. The other is that his arm is really ****ing taxed at this point.

PowerHouse
02-16-2015, 12:59 AM
^Somewhere Nolan Ryan is laughing his *** off at that. But I get it. The pitch count era has a lot of people thinking in those terms.

filihok
02-16-2015, 01:52 AM
^Somewhere Nolan Ryan is laughing his *** off at that. But I get it. The pitch count era has a lot of people thinking in those terms.
Nolan Ryan threw a billion pitches - so everyone should be able to because players are robots that are exactly the same.

PowerHouse
02-16-2015, 02:50 AM
Nolan Ryan threw a billion pitches - so everyone should be able to because players are robots that are exactly the same.

LMAO. Nice try but Im not at all comparing Shields to even half of a Nolan Ryan. But I am comparing eras.

Btw let the record show that I did say I get it. Do I like it that in the modern era of baseball, when nutrition, training and medical technologies are at an all time high, starting pitchers are babied like crazy? No. But times change and I get it.

EddieGaedelMVP
02-16-2015, 03:05 AM
That's one line of thought. The other is that his arm is really ****ing taxed at this point.

You don't know how taxed it is though. He hasn't really shown any signs of regression in the last few seasons. If anything he has shown the opposite. His strikeouts may have been down the last two seasons but it hasn't really effected his stats so who really cares. He is also a fly ball pitcher which is a good thing in Petco. Sure the the Padres OF defense may be questionable, but with the Marine layer and Petco Park's large dimensions he will give up the HR ball much less often.

Oh and also, the Marine Layer at Petco Park should help the balls in Petco stay in the air longer than the majority of Ballparks which should help the likes of Myers, Kemp and Upton in fielding fly balls. There is probably some in depth analytic stat that accounts for different climate factors like a Marine Layer but I just thought I would point out the Marine Layer at Petco Park because nobody has brought it up yet.

filihok
02-16-2015, 03:19 AM
LMAO. Nice try but Im not at all comparing Shields to even half of a Nolan Ryan. But I am comparing eras.
I don't see how Ryan laughing his *** off is comparing eras, but ok.

filihok
02-16-2015, 03:25 AM
You don't know how taxed it is though. He hasn't really shown any signs of regression in the last few seasons. If anything he has shown the opposite. His strikeouts may have been down the last two seasons but it hasn't really effected his stats so who really cares.
Well, his strikeout rate is showing up in his stats - I mean it is a stat.
He's getting less swings and miss from his change up.
His walk rate last season seems superficially low.
There are definite warning signs.

As for the marine layer, anyone have BABIP on fly balls and line drive in Petco compared to league averages?

Jeffy25
02-16-2015, 06:01 AM
^Somewhere Nolan Ryan is laughing his *** off at that. But I get it. The pitch count era has a lot of people thinking in those terms.

You do realize that Nolan Ryan has been in charge in Texas with Rangers pitchers who have had pitch counts enforced upon them.

Nolan Ryan was unique. Though, I'm not worried about Shields workload. I think you get used to a number of pitches and innings, and can sustain.