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View Full Version : Where do you rank Vucevic among centers?



Corey
01-29-2015, 03:32 AM
Every published list (pre-season) I've seen has Vucevic omitted from the top 10 centers.

Where do you guys rank him?

He's putting up 20 and 11, including 78% from the line for a center. 54% from the field, playing solid defense, racking up a .144 WS/48.

He's rapidly moving up the center list in my eyes. I've liked him since he was at USC, and I wanted the C's to draft him so badly in 2011. Such a good player.

tredigs
01-29-2015, 03:53 AM
Totally disagree with the "playing solid defense" part. I think he's a liability.

Vuv is a very good scorer who offers sub-par rim protection, stat-padded rebounding (I actually brought this up/proved it in a thread a couple weeks ago), and sub-par passing ability.

I think he's a nice piece to have and he should continue to grow, but the box-score #'s are probably better looking than his actual impact right now.

Corey
01-29-2015, 04:04 AM
I havent looked at anything advanced on the matter, but I watch a fair amount of him and he seems pretty competent on ball. He isn't a rim protector, you're right about that. I think he's improved on that end since he's been in the league, as it used to be his biggest weakness. I'm fairly certain he's pretty solid in post up defense situations, but struggles in other areas on that end of the floor.

dalton749
01-29-2015, 04:27 AM
In the same situation, I think valanciunas puts up better numbers

basketfan4life
01-29-2015, 07:08 AM
I just say the Magic has a great future. Vucevic-Harris-Oladipo. Even Fournier and Elfrid look like really good players.

Vucevic is at least top 5 to me.

PurpleLynch
01-29-2015, 07:33 AM
He's a good center,especially on offense.

He isn't in the top 10 imo (Top of my head:Noah,Gasol,Howard,Cousins,Horford,Jordan,Drum mond,Bogut when healthy, are better centers imo). But he's still young,he can develop in something of awesome for the Magic. They have the most interesting young core imo,along with the Bucks.

2-ONE-5
01-29-2015, 10:01 AM
Totally disagree with the "playing solid defense" part. I think he's a liability.

Vuv is a very good scorer who offers sub-par rim protection, stat-padded rebounding (I actually brought this up/proved it in a thread a couple weeks ago), and sub-par passing ability.

I think he's a nice piece to have and he should continue to grow, but the box-score #'s are probably better looking than his actual impact right now.

since when are Centers expected to be good passers, as long as you can pass your way out of a double team thats good enough and rim protection isnt the only measure of defense either. Also he cant help where or how he is getting rebounds and its not like he is pulling a Love or Lee and refusing to defend so he can go chase a rebound down.

IndyRealist
01-29-2015, 10:48 AM
since when are Centers expected to be good passers, as long as you can pass your way out of a double team thats good enough and rim protection isnt the only measure of defense either. Also he cant help where or how he is getting rebounds and its not like he is pulling a Love or Lee and refusing to defend so he can go chase a rebound down.
That was true 20 years ago, when you could actually run a post up game as your primary offense. These days a center also needs to be able to pass out of the high post to open up cutting lanes to the basket for his wings, as well as being able to hit the give n' go. Otherwise, he's not going to get the ball nearly enough to be effective on offense. If he can't pass, he'd better be able to hit 18ft jumpers to space the floor.

Miltstar
01-29-2015, 10:49 AM
You can't just really rank players at how good they are, each have strengths and weaknesses and each are a better fit depending on what your looking to get from them and what other pieces you have supporting them.

Corey
01-29-2015, 11:03 AM
You can't just really rank players at how good they are

I mean we are on a sports forum.

dodgersuck
01-29-2015, 04:09 PM
Vucci Mane

RiLoc
01-29-2015, 05:06 PM
His offense is promising, his defense is a little below average. He rebounds like a mad man and is offensively pretty efficient. That being said, I feel like his conventional numbers inflate his value a little. This year opponents are shredding the Magic at the rim when Vucevic is anchoring the defense. His RPM/RAPM numbers expose that...

2014-15
RPM: -.61 (29th among centers with more than 500 min played)
ORPM: -1.09 (19th)
DRPM: .48 (33rd)

2013-14
RPM: .73 (22nd among centers with more than 1000 min played)
ORPM: -1.67 (23rd)
DRPM: 2.40 (17th)

If we were drafting the NBA from scratch, roughly off the top of my head there is 15 or so I'd take ahead of him. Of course, it could be higher depending on who else you have and what the long term plan is.


Vucci Mane
"Vucci Mane ó I do not like that at all. Fans like it, and around Orlando, they always ask me about it. For some reason, Iím sorry, I donít like it. It comes from Gucci Mane. I donít know. I just donít like it." -Nikola Vucevic

That's from this Grantland article that was posted yesterday: Q&A With Orlandoís Nikola Vucevic: On Theme Parks, Nicknames, and More (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-with-orlandos-nikola-vucevic-on-theme-parks-nicknames-and-more/)

Stunner
01-29-2015, 05:40 PM
He should be an all start this year I know that

2-ONE-5
01-29-2015, 05:52 PM
His offense is promising, his defense is a little below average. He rebounds like a mad man and is offensively pretty efficient. That being said, I feel like his conventional numbers inflate his value a little. This year opponents are shredding the Magic at the rim when Vucevic is anchoring the defense. His RPM/RAPM numbers expose that...

2014-15
RPM: -.61 (29th among centers with more than 500 min played)
ORPM: -1.09 (19th)
DRPM: .48 (33rd)

2013-14
RPM: .73 (22nd among centers with more than 1000 min played)
ORPM: -1.67 (23rd)
DRPM: 2.40 (17th)

If we were drafting the NBA from scratch, roughly off the top of my head there is 15 or so I'd take ahead of him. Of course, it could be higher depending on who else you have and what the long term plan is.


"Vucci Mane ó I do not like that at all. Fans like it, and around Orlando, they always ask me about it. For some reason, Iím sorry, I donít like it. It comes from Gucci Mane. I donít know. I just donít like it." -Nikola Vucevic

That's from this Grantland article that was posted yesterday: Q&A With Orlandoís Nikola Vucevic: On Theme Parks, Nicknames, and More (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-with-orlandos-nikola-vucevic-on-theme-parks-nicknames-and-more/)

please name the 15

tredigs
01-30-2015, 03:50 AM
since when are Centers expected to be good passers, as long as you can pass your way out of a double team thats good enough and rim protection isnt the only measure of defense either. Also he cant help where or how he is getting rebounds and its not like he is pulling a Love or Lee and refusing to defend so he can go chase a rebound down.

Per the bold - that's exactly what he's doing - though much worse than Lee ever has. I'm too lazy to look up my post, but I proved this no more than 2 weeks ago.

And if all my center gives me is good scoring and weak D + weak contested rebounding, he damn sure better be able to create some open looks and find the creases ala Bogut or Noah. Vuv certainly can't at this point.

Said it 2 weeks ago, saying it now. Not yet a winning player.

Give me Deandre Jordan and all his offensive ineptitudes 10 times out of 10 over Vuv.

macc
01-30-2015, 11:02 AM
Vuc is easily in the top 4-7 range in C's in this league depending on how you value your center. His defense is average but he is a 7 footer who can make it difficult on the defender. He's just not going to put up the big blocks on sports center that you see Howard and Jordan do.

His offense is what puts him near the top of the league. He has great footwork, can go left or right with counter moves with each hand. The one thing that doesn't get brought up much about his offense is his offensive game. He is one of the best in the league with his 15-18ft jumpers. Everytime he shoots them I expect it to go in.

When people say his numbers (offensively) are inflated I wonder if they have actually watched him play. His PPG is warranted and has been the best player on the Magic all year (followed by Dipo). He has great body control and doesn't put up bad shots. Plus he makes his free throws (something Magic fans aren't used to).

For the comment above, there is no world where I would take Jordan over Vuc. Unless I absolutely needed a Defensive C and had great offense at other positions. Vuc > Jordan 7 days a week.

2-ONE-5
01-30-2015, 11:04 AM
Per the bold - that's exactly what he's doing - though much worse than Lee ever has. I'm too lazy to look up my post, but I proved this no more than 2 weeks ago.

And if all my center gives me is good scoring and weak D + weak contested rebounding, he damn sure better be able to create some open looks and find the creases ala Bogut or Noah. Vuv certainly can't at this point.

Said it 2 weeks ago, saying it now. Not yet a winning player.

Give me Deandre Jordan and all his offensive ineptitudes 10 times out of 10 over Vuv.

are you watching Magic games to verify this? You cant make that assumption based off the stats you read, they never tell the whole story. how can he be a winning player on a rebuilding team thats not ready to win yet?

D-Leethal
01-30-2015, 11:29 AM
Tough to say if he is a great young Center or a stat padder on a terrible team.

RLundi
01-30-2015, 12:20 PM
Totally disagree with the "playing solid defense" part. I think he's a liability.

Vuv is a very good scorer who offers sub-par rim protection, stat-padded rebounding (I actually brought this up/proved it in a thread a couple weeks ago), and sub-par passing ability.

I think he's a nice piece to have and he should continue to grow, but the box-score #'s are probably better looking than his actual impact right now.

Again, you're simply box score surfing. I'll say the exact same thing I said to you in the other thread a few weeks ago, where you made baseless claims and ridiculous assertions: watch the games. Not sure what beef you have with Vucevic, but I'm guessing you've watched 2 games of his all year when Orlando played the Warriors. Your claims have evolved from bad to worse: stat-padding rebounding doesn't exist; you either rebound or you don't. He is a decent defender. And he's a decent passer. I have no clue what you are basing this on because you certainly and clearly are not watching the games.

Once again, don't pass judgement solely relying on statistics that tell a marginal portion of the story.

tredigs
01-30-2015, 12:38 PM
I LOVE the idea that because I use facts that contradict with what certain people think about a player, that I'm a 'Box score surfer'. Nevermind that I bet on the NBA many times a week and put my money where my mouth is. Magic games included. I can guarantee you that I watch more random NBA games (including many, many Magic games over the years) than 95%+ of this board.

2-ONE-5
01-30-2015, 01:35 PM
so you bcuz you bet on games and against the Magic youre an expert? i do the same thing daily myself, who cares? Im gonna BET that you prob dont have league pass and if you do have it the Magic are not one of the teams you selected so really like the other guy said you seen 2 magic games this year.

D-Leethal
01-30-2015, 01:46 PM
If he is claiming to watch random NBA games including the Magic I think its safe to say he has league pass.

2-ONE-5
01-30-2015, 02:21 PM
there are natinally televised games what 3-4 days a week? He never said anything about watching the magic this year either.

RLundi
01-30-2015, 02:27 PM
Double post.

RLundi
01-30-2015, 02:29 PM
I'm sure he has League Pass if he says he watches more games than 95% of the posters here but his claim of watching multiple Magic games is suspect since they are honestly one of the very worst teams in the league. I wouldn't watch the Lakers or Sixers or Knicks regularly but that's just me. Either way, I sincerely doubt he's seen enough games to say whether or not Vucevic is a winner, gets stat-padded rebounds or doesn't have adequate passing ability for a big man.

Hence, my use of "box-score surfing."

tredigs
01-30-2015, 03:17 PM
I'll put it this way from an eye test perspective: Vucevic does not strike me as a "bad" defender. I think - for the most part - he puts effort in on that end, and that's more than many players can say. Where he lacks is his BBIQ in understanding where a developing play is headed (think: polar opposite of Tim Duncan, Igoudala, CP3, Tony Allen, Bogut, etc), and he has nowhere near the lateral quickness or freak athleticism to make it up in time. And when you're the teams center, that is a major concern. The slashing/dynamic PG's in today's game feast on a player like that in the block. That's a major reason why the Magic actually improve their net defense when he's off the floor (that should never, ever be the case for a starting center that people are bringing up in top 5 discussions). And while he's a great mid-range shooter and a solid scorer in general, it doubly hurts that you've got a non rim protecting center who also can't hit a 3. If he acquires that, he'll at least have an extra advantage offensively.

The "they're not on National TV so how can you watch them?" comment was cute 2one5. Lmao. I'm literally sitting at a sportsbook 4 hours before work right now studying lines and re-watching the Lakers/Bulls game to best see how they're going to play out post-Kobe. In the last 2 weeks alone I've watched the Magic V the Thunder, Grizzlies and I think Detroit.

Vuv's a good player (mostly a really talented scorer), but he'll always be reliant on a fierce PF as a rim protector to shore up his weaknesses if he wants to play on a contending team. And that in itself poses it's own slew of issues unless it's the perfect fit.

RiLoc
01-30-2015, 07:50 PM
If we were drafting the NBA from scratch, roughly off the top of my head there is 15 or so I'd take ahead of him. Of course, it could be higher depending on who else you have and what the long term plan is.please name the 15
If I'm trying to "win now" as in just win a title this year, in no particular order:

1.) Tyson Chandler
2.) DeAndre Jordan
3.) DeMarcus Cousins
4.) Marc Gasol
5.) Andrew Bogut
6.) Joakim Noah
7.) Marcin Gortat
8.) Al Horford
9.) Dwight Howard
10.) Chris Bosh
11.) Andre Drummond
12.) Tiago Splitter

That's 12, then 3 of these:
1.) Tim Duncan if I can categorize him as C, which is likely what he'd play even if the roster said "Power Forward."
2.) Pau Gasol if I can categorize him as C, which is likely what he'd play even if the roster said "Power Forward."
3.) If I knew Brook Lopez would be healthy and as effective as years past, I'd take Brook Lopez.
4.) Robin Lopez measures out better in terms of advanced statistics, it's hard for me to definitely say yes, but I think there is a case.
5.) If Larry Sanders had a way to have his head on straight, then absolutely, his defensive RAPM / RPM is off the charts.
6.) Nikola Pekovic if healthy and back to effectiveness from previous years.

Zaza Puchulia measures out better in terms of advanced statistics, but I can't say I'd take him.

I think that gets me to "15 or so." I'm not trying to hate, I think he's a great young center, but his standard stats are inflated by playing on the Magic.

RLundi
01-30-2015, 08:01 PM
If I'm trying to "win now" as in just win a title this year, in no particular order:

1.) Tyson Chandler
2.) DeAndre Jordan
3.) DeMarcus Cousins
4.) Marc Gasol
5.) Andrew Bogut
6.) Joakim Noah
7.) Marcin Gortat
8.) Al Horford
9.) Dwight Howard
10.) Chris Bosh
11.) Andre Drummond
12.) Tiago Splitter

That's 12, then 3 of these:
1.) Tim Duncan if I can categorize him as C, which is likely what he'd play even if the roster said "Power Forward."
2.) Pau Gasol if I can categorize him as C, which is likely what he'd play even if the roster said "Power Forward."
3.) If I knew Brook Lopez would be healthy and as effective as years past, I'd take Brook Lopez.
4.) Robin Lopez measures out better in terms of advanced statistics, it's hard for me to definitely say yes, but I think there is a case.
5.) If Larry Sanders had a way to have his head on straight, then absolutely, his defensive RAPM / RPM is off the charts.
6.) Nikola Pekovic if healthy and back to effectiveness from previous years.

Zaza Puchulia measures out better in terms of advanced statistics, but I can't say I'd take him.

I think that gets me to "15 or so." I'm not trying to hate, I think he's a great young center, but his standard stats are inflated by playing on the Magic.

The majority of this post is laughable. I'll leave it at that.

5ass
01-30-2015, 08:13 PM
The majority of this post is laughable. I'll leave it at that.

Lol splitter and gortat that guy was really struggling to fill our that list

Nick O
01-30-2015, 08:13 PM
Counting Duncan as a PF

IN NO ORDERRRRRRR i place him behind

Cousins
Howard
Bosh
Maybe a healthy Brooke Lopez
Marc Gasol

Goose17
01-30-2015, 08:25 PM
Lol splitter and gortat that guy was really struggling to fill our that list

I would 100% take Gortat over Vucevic. Every time.

But I'm surprised Chandler was at the top of his list.

5ass
01-30-2015, 08:25 PM
I'll put it this way from an eye test perspective: Vucevic does not strike me as a "bad" defender. I think - for the most part - he puts effort in on that end, and that's more than many players can say. Where he lacks is his BBIQ in understanding where a developing play is headed (think: polar opposite of Tim Duncan, Igoudala, CP3, Tony Allen, Bogut, etc), and he has nowhere near the lateral quickness or freak athleticism to make it up in time. And when you're the teams center, that is a major concern. The slashing/dynamic PG's in today's game feast on a player like that in the block. That's a major reason why the Magic actually improve their net defense when he's off the floor (that should never, ever be the case for a starting center that people are bringing up in top 5 discussions). And while he's a great mid-range shooter and a solid scorer in general, it doubly hurts that you've got a non rim protecting center who also can't hit a 3. If he acquires that, he'll at least have an extra advantage offensively.

The "they're not on National TV so how can you watch them?" comment was cute 2one5. Lmao. I'm literally sitting at a sportsbook 4 hours before work right now studying lines and re-watching the Lakers/Bulls game to best see how they're going to play out post-Kobe. In the last 2 weeks alone I've watched the Magic V the Thunder, Grizzlies and I think Detroit.

Vuv's a good player (mostly a really talented scorer), but he'll always be reliant on a fierce PF as a rim protector to shore up his weaknesses if he wants to play on a contending team. And that in itself poses it's own slew of issues unless it's the perfect fit.

All centres have a weakness, vuc is definitely a weak rim protector. I agree with a lot of what U said in this thread, but few things to note in regards to his defensive numbers.
1st he plays a lot of minutes with Frye and Harris at PF, Frye has been horrible defensively.
2nd JV really hasn't installed a defensive identity.
3rd oladipo and Payton though they're great defenders, they like to gamble.

I think in time vuc will prove to be a much better defender than the numbers show

5ass
01-30-2015, 08:31 PM
I would 100% take Gortat over Vucevic. Every time.

But I'm surprised Chandler was at the top of his list.
Yeah maybe U can make a case for gortat. I haven't watched him enough recently, but I know what he brings to the table. Even funnier though is he mentioned gasol after vuc destroyed him last week.
For the record id place vuc 7-10 this season. I think he is overrated by some as tredigs said, but then again I value defense when it comes to centers more than others. I REALLY want the magic to steal ibaka from the thunder somehow.

IndyRealist
01-31-2015, 01:36 PM
The majority of this post is laughable. I'll leave it at that.

The top 11 are WITHOUT question better than Vucevic, so saying that the "majority" of a 18 person list is wrong, is laughable. Splitter is probably better, Robin Lopez is definitely better considering he's a top 5 defensive center over the last two years. If Brook were healthy that's another no brainer, and if Larry Sanders could quit pot that's another one. Pau and Duncan are both PF/C and can be categorized as both, so there's two more. The only ones on that list that shouldn't be there are Pekovic and maybe Splitter.

2-ONE-5
01-31-2015, 01:40 PM
Love stat pads to the max for years and gets labeled best PF and a superstar but now Vuc cant get any love?

RiLoc
02-01-2015, 04:58 AM
I understand the criticism of my list, but I said there was "15 or so" and I listed 18 assuming most people would disagree with a few. Vucevic is putting up numbers on a bad team, assuming you are looking at basic statistics (i.e. per-game stats that don't account for efficiency) or even PER, because Vucevic's advanced statistics, particularly WAR and RPM/RAPM, are not nearly as good.

The reality is even poor offensive teams like Orlando, who ranks just 27th in points per possession, average 95 points per game. Payton can't shoot, meaning Frye's best weapon the pick 'n' pop is rendered useless by defenders ducking deep under screens. Olidipo can ball handle some, but even then Payton's defender is sagging and helping on everything. It's a spacing nightmare and Vucevic is filling the scoring void by taking shots.

On defense Vucevic is slow and struggles to defend the rim. Opponents shoot a sky high 55% on close shots which Vucevic is within 5 feet (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/?sort=FGA_DEFEND_RIM&dir=1). Vucevic's Defensive RPM numbers are not good either: ESPN Defensive RPM (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/9). If you can't find him, it's because he's on the 2nd page, ranked 42nd in the league for centers, right after defensive stalwart Amar'e Stoudemire. I'm not saying it's a perfect stat, but it's the closest we have for measuring defensive impact and it doesn't look good at all for Vucevic. The Magic tried starting Kyle O'Quinn to help the rim protection deficiency, except removing Frye made the already terrible spacing issue even worse.

To summarize, Vucevic can't spread the floor out to the three point line, doesn't protect the rim well and doesn't appear to compensate with other defensive skills. Plus side, he pulls down rebounds; usually he's ranked 10-12 in the league at rebounding percentage. If we're evaluating how high to rank Vucevic in a win now situation, we need to evaluate what the ideal situation for winning team with Vucevic. You'll need your other big to be a rim protector, preferably athletic but not necessarily required, that can stretch the floor preferably to the three point line (rare commidity) so that Vucevic can run pick 'n' roll floaters and mid range shots as the #2 option, but preferably the #3 option, while providing below average defense. Meaning you'll need a somewhat unique 4 and a scorer, meaning not all teams will be interested and it also begs the question if you had such a unique big and a scorer, would Vucevic be your choice anyway? I'm not saying he's terrible, he's a solid starting center at age 24. I just feel like if consider fit; How many other centers have more complimentary skills, are easier fits in general, have unique skill sets and/or have statistics that illustrate their ability to boost their teams performance? I think that makes it hard to say Vucevic is ahead of "15 or so" other centers.


Even funnier though is he mentioned gasol after vuc destroyed him last week.Vucevic posterized Gasol (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-6wqZZ1DZs) even early in the month too. Regardless, I'd still take Gasol if I was trying to win this year.


But I'm surprised Chandler was at the top of his list.I said "in no particular order." :shrug:

RLundi
02-01-2015, 07:47 AM
The top 11 are WITHOUT question better than Vucevic, so saying that the "majority" of a 18 person list is wrong, is laughable. Splitter is probably better, Robin Lopez is definitely better considering he's a top 5 defensive center over the last two years. If Brook were healthy that's another no brainer, and if Larry Sanders could quit pot that's another one. Pau and Duncan are both PF/C and can be categorized as both, so there's two more. The only ones on that list that shouldn't be there are Pekovic and maybe Splitter.

Yeah, I adore your many what-if scenarios, they're very cute. IF Vucevic was a better center, he'd be a better center. See? I can do it too. Stick to the facts and refrain from including laughable hypotheticals.

Like I said, the majority of that post is laughable. I don't yet consider Vuc a top 10 center but 15 or 18 guys better? No. The center position has not evolved that much over the years where the majority of the league is better than a 20-10 player with a PER at 22, WS/48 at .140 and a VORP at 1.8. Most of the top 11 that you claim "WITHOUT question" reach or surpass that but Bogut, Gortat, Splitter and Noah don't reach those numbers. I'm not even gonna touch Robin or Brook Lopez or Larry ******* Sanders. I'd probably take Noah but I wouldn't take Bogut over Vucevic.

So yes, laughable like I said. I'm not changing that. Again, Vucevic is not yet a top 10 center but he'll be there very soon. 18 guys being better than him is complete bull****. He's only penalized because the Magic are a terrible team. Whatever, like I told the other guy, watch the damn games.

DitchDat
02-01-2015, 09:38 AM
I like him a lot actually. Both his play and his attitude.

IndyRealist
02-01-2015, 11:48 AM
Yeah, I adore your many what-if scenarios, they're very cute. IF Vucevic was a better center, he'd be a better center. See? I can do it too. Stick to the facts and refrain from including laughable hypotheticals.

Like I said, the majority of that post is laughable. I don't yet consider Vuc a top 10 center but 15 or 18 guys better? No. The center position has not evolved that much over the years where the majority of the league is better than a 20-10 player with a PER at 22, WS/48 at .140 and a VORP at 1.8. Most of the top 11 that you claim "WITHOUT question" reach or surpass that but Bogut, Gortat, Splitter and Noah don't reach those numbers. I'm not even gonna touch Robin or Brook Lopez or Larry ******* Sanders. I'd probably take Noah but I wouldn't take Bogut over Vucevic.

So yes, laughable like I said. I'm not changing that. Again, Vucevic is not yet a top 10 center but he'll be there very soon. 18 guys being better than him is complete bull****. He's only penalized because the Magic are a terrible team. Whatever, like I told the other guy, watch the damn games.
No metric sufficiently accounts for defense, and this is pretty common knowledge even among the "I hate stats" crowd. Bogut is a defensive MONSTER and regularly gets praised by his teammates publicly for making their system work. He's also an incredible passing big man, with a good post up game. But because he's not a 20-10 guy, he gets dogged? Would you want him slowing down the game and posting up when you have Klay Thompson and Steph Curry? Didn't think so. The same can be said of Gortat. He anchors the D, and has stronger perimeter weapons around him than the Magic have around Vucevic. Both play with offensive oriented PFs. Robin Lopez is a top 5 defensive center over the last two years. Can you say that Vucevic is a top 5 offensive center?

In addition to that list, there are a half dozen young guys on rookie deals I'd take over Vucevic simply because they're not liabilities on either end of the floor, and show elite ability without being force fed the ball. Rudy Gobert is holding opponents to 37.1% at rim. Vucevic? 58.4%, right there with Kenneth Faried and Kevin Love. Motiejunas, Dieng, Henson, Plumlee, Valanciunias, maybe Zeller, maybe Len, I'd take them over Vucevic over the next 5 years. I'd take Jonas V, or Mason Plumlee -right now- over Vucevic. They're good offensively, and light-years ahead defensively.

Let's take a closer look at Vucevic's offense, because we definitely don't want to look at his defense. He scores 27.2 points per 48, but takes 22.2 shots per 48 (about 50% more than the average center). But his TS% is only 1.1% above the average for centers (56.3% vs 55.2%), and his points per shot taken is slightly below average (1.22 vs 1.27). Basically, he's an average scorer that is force fed the ball. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot, not because he's particularly good at it. Can he get better? Sure. But right now he's average with a high volume.

Now let's look at Valanciunas. 22.8 points on 15.1 shots per 48, 62.3% TS, 1.51 PPS. Gets to the line 7.1 times per 48 (Vucevic is at 4.4, below average).

Plumlee? 21.8 points on 14.4 shots per 48, 58.9% TS, 1.51 PPS. Gets to the line 9.3 times per 48. And Plumlee was better LAST YEAR (67% TS, 1.72 PPS).

The marginal difference in points is small considering how many shot attempts Vucevic wastes in order to get there. Both those players are better offensively, and significantly better defensively. Two more.

I wasn't going to call out an average player for being a volume shot taker, if people wanna heap on praise then whatever. But when you're being derogatory to other people for pointing out what's OBVIOUS to anyone who looks closely, well, guess I have to burst your bubble.

5ass
02-01-2015, 11:57 AM
No metric sufficiently accounts for defense, and this is pretty common knowledge even among the "I hate stats" crowd. Bogut is a defensive MONSTER and regularly gets praised by his teammates publicly for making their system work. He's also an incredible passing big man, with a good post up game. But because he's not a 20-10 guy, he gets dogged? Would you want him slowing down the game and posting up when you have Klay Thompson and Steph Curry? Didn't think so. The same can be said of Gortat. He anchors the D, and has stronger perimeter weapons around him than the Magic have around Vucevic. Both play with offensive oriented PFs. Robin Lopez is a top 5 defensive center over the last two years. Can you say that Vucevic is a top 5 offensive center?

In addition to that list, there are a half dozen young guys on rookie deals I'd take over Vucevic simply because they're not liabilities on either end of the floor, and show elite ability without being force fed the ball. Rudy Gobert is holding opponents to 37.1% at rim. Vucevic? 58.4%, right there with Kenneth Faried and Kevin Love. Motiejunas, Dieng, Henson, Plumlee, Valanciunias, maybe Zeller, maybe Len, I'd take them over Vucevic over the next 5 years. I'd take Jonas V, or Mason Plumlee -right now- over Vucevic. They're good offensively, and light-years ahead defensively.

Let's take a closer look at Vucevic's offense, because we definitely don't want to look at his defense. He scores 27.2 points per 48, but takes 22.2 shots per 48 (about 50% more than the average center). But his TS% is only 1.1% above the average for centers (56.3% vs 55.2%), and his points per shot taken is slightly below average (1.22 vs 1.27). Basically, he's an average scorer that is force fed the ball. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot, not because he's particularly good at it. Can he get better? Sure. But right now he's average with a high volume.

Now let's look at Valanciunas. 22.8 points on 15.1 shots per 48, 62.3% TS, 1.51 PPS. Gets to the line 7.1 times per 48 (Vucevic is at 4.4, below average).

Plumlee? 21.8 points on 14.4 shots per 48, 58.9% TS, 1.51 PPS. Gets to the line 9.3 times per 48. And Plumlee was better LAST YEAR (67% TS, 1.72 PPS).

The marginal difference in points is small considering how many shot attempts Vucevic wastes in order to get there. Both those players are better offensively, and significantly better defensively. Two more.

I guess Deandre and McGee are also better offensive players because they have a higher TS%.

IndyRealist
02-01-2015, 11:59 AM
I guess Deandre and McGee are also better offensive players because they have a higher TS%.

Don't be that guy that uses straw man arguments. I never mentioned those two as being better offensive players. I specifically say, "The marginal difference in points is small considering how many shot attempts Vucevic wastes in order to get there. " He takes 50% more shots to get you 20% more points. Did you just see TS% in the paragraph and say, "Oh I have a nonsensical argument to use!"

M.I.A.
02-01-2015, 12:11 PM
Vucevic is good but he isn't good enough to carry the Magic into the playoffs. They need another good player or two.

2-ONE-5
02-01-2015, 12:29 PM
Vucevic is good but he isn't good enough to carry the Magic into the playoffs. They need another good player or two.

thyre not even really trying to make the playoffs, its a rebuilding team who is focusing on player development. I didnt see love take Minny to the playoffs, I dont see AD taking NO to the playoffs, i dont see Cousins taking Sac anywhere near the playoffs, etc

5ass
02-01-2015, 12:58 PM
Don't be that guy that uses straw man arguments. I never mentioned those two as being better offensive players. I specifically say, "The marginal difference in points is small considering how many shot attempts Vucevic wastes in order to get there. " He takes 50% more shots to get you 20% more points. Did you just see TS% in the paragraph and say, "Oh I have a nonsensical argument to use!"

No you specifically called plumlee and val better offensive players.

Bruno
02-01-2015, 01:49 PM
he's a talented post player. I think Orlando should fire Vaughn, and sign Marc Jackson as head coach. i think it would be an ideal fit. after all, rim protection is overrated in the NBA.

IndyRealist
02-01-2015, 02:32 PM
I guess Deandre and McGee are also better offensive players because they have a higher TS%.


No you specifically called plumlee and val better offensive players.

^ Straw man argument.

Plumlee and Val ARE better offensive players. Vucevic gets you 20% more points than them per minute by taking 50% more shots than they do. That's a horrible tradeoff and why, combined with his inability to get to the line, his PPS is below average for a center. Vucevic is average at scoring, and being force fed shots. If I had to guess, I'd say it's because the Magic are trying to lose.

5ass
02-01-2015, 03:00 PM
^ Straw man argument.

Plumlee and Val ARE better offensive players. Vucevic gets you 20% more points than them per minute by taking 50% more shots than they do. That's a horrible tradeoff and why, combined with his inability to get to the line, his PPS is below average for a center. Vucevic is average at scoring, and being force fed shots. If I had to guess, I'd say it's because the Magic are trying to lose.

Learn to look beyond the stats.

MagicBucsSox
02-01-2015, 03:32 PM
How is it stat padding if he's been a double double guy since arriving in Orlando? He couldn't do it in Philly because those idiots wouldn't play him. And check his stats vs the best bigs, he only performs. Has an idiot coach too who still forces Oladipo out of position, benches Harkless, sits Harris, wouldnt play Payton etc etc and a GM who won't/hasn't gotten him help guys like him,Dirk (P)Gasol etc

MagicBucsSox
02-01-2015, 03:33 PM
If I'm trying to "win now" as in just win a title this year, in no particular order:

1.) Tyson Chandler
2.) DeAndre Jordan
3.) DeMarcus Cousins
4.) Marc Gasol
5.) Andrew Bogut
6.) Joakim Noah
7.) Marcin Gortat
8.) Al Horford
9.) Dwight Howard
10.) Chris Bosh
11.) Andre Drummond
12.) Tiago Splitter

That's 12, then 3 of these:
1.) Tim Duncan if I can categorize him as C, which is likely what he'd play even if the roster said "Power Forward."
2.) Pau Gasol if I can categorize him as C, which is likely what he'd play even if the roster said "Power Forward."
3.) If I knew Brook Lopez would be healthy and as effective as years past, I'd take Brook Lopez.
4.) Robin Lopez measures out better in terms of advanced statistics, it's hard for me to definitely say yes, but I think there is a case.
5.) If Larry Sanders had a way to have his head on straight, then absolutely, his defensive RAPM / RPM is off the charts.
6.) Nikola Pekovic if healthy and back to effectiveness from previous years.

Zaza Puchulia measures out better in terms of advanced statistics, but I can't say I'd take him.

I think that gets me to "15 or so." I'm not trying to hate, I think he's a great young center, but his standard stats are inflated by playing on the Magic.

Lmaoooooooo

RLundi
02-02-2015, 12:56 AM
No metric sufficiently accounts for defense, and this is pretty common knowledge even among the "I hate stats" crowd. Bogut is a defensive MONSTER and regularly gets praised by his teammates publicly for making their system work. He's also an incredible passing big man, with a good post up game. But because he's not a 20-10 guy, he gets dogged? Would you want him slowing down the game and posting up when you have Klay Thompson and Steph Curry? Didn't think so. The same can be said of Gortat. He anchors the D, and has stronger perimeter weapons around him than the Magic have around Vucevic. Both play with offensive oriented PFs. Robin Lopez is a top 5 defensive center over the last two years. Can you say that Vucevic is a top 5 offensive center?

In addition to that list, there are a half dozen young guys on rookie deals I'd take over Vucevic simply because they're not liabilities on either end of the floor, and show elite ability without being force fed the ball. Rudy Gobert is holding opponents to 37.1% at rim. Vucevic? 58.4%, right there with Kenneth Faried and Kevin Love. Motiejunas, Dieng, Henson, Plumlee, Valanciunias, maybe Zeller, maybe Len, I'd take them over Vucevic over the next 5 years. I'd take Jonas V, or Mason Plumlee -right now- over Vucevic. They're good offensively, and light-years ahead defensively.

Let's take a closer look at Vucevic's offense, because we definitely don't want to look at his defense. He scores 27.2 points per 48, but takes 22.2 shots per 48 (about 50% more than the average center). But his TS% is only 1.1% above the average for centers (56.3% vs 55.2%), and his points per shot taken is slightly below average (1.22 vs 1.27). Basically, he's an average scorer that is force fed the ball. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot, not because he's particularly good at it. Can he get better? Sure. But right now he's average with a high volume.

Now let's look at Valanciunas. 22.8 points on 15.1 shots per 48, 62.3% TS, 1.51 PPS. Gets to the line 7.1 times per 48 (Vucevic is at 4.4, below average).

Plumlee? 21.8 points on 14.4 shots per 48, 58.9% TS, 1.51 PPS. Gets to the line 9.3 times per 48. And Plumlee was better LAST YEAR (67% TS, 1.72 PPS).

The marginal difference in points is small considering how many shot attempts Vucevic wastes in order to get there. Both those players are better offensively, and significantly better defensively. Two more.

I wasn't going to call out an average player for being a volume shot taker, if people wanna heap on praise then whatever. But when you're being derogatory to other people for pointing out what's OBVIOUS to anyone who looks closely, well, guess I have to burst your bubble.

Whatever bubble you think you're bursting, take it down a notch and adjust your hubris. You've proven nothing, just pointless extrapolation.

The efficient Plumlee and Val get a good portion of their offense on putbacks and clean ups. So comparing their per48 numbers is very silly. If they were featured in the offense, their efficiency would nosedive. Run set plays for those two players and we'll see how they fare. Good effort, but yeah, it's painfully obvious that entire premise is complete trash to anyone not an amateur. Everything else you said about who you'd take over the next 5 years is also very silly, mostly because you're using players with tiny sample sizes. Are you extrapolating their numbers too? Because that will NEVER be accurate. Honestly, it's dumb. You're comparing apples to oranges and pretending like the oranges aren't oranges. Please try again.

Vucevic is efficient. He doesn't get to the line but he's efficient. I don't see how you can argue that. What does Bogut have to do with this? His post up game is irrelevant because of the offense. Why even mention it? You mentioned straw man, well thanks for the red herring.

Sadds The Gr8
02-02-2015, 02:52 AM
Solid player but really bad rim protector from what I've read. Kills his team on D

IndyRealist
02-02-2015, 11:33 AM
Whatever bubble you think you're bursting, take it down a notch and adjust your hubris. You've proven nothing, just pointless extrapolation.

The efficient Plumlee and Val get a good portion of their offense on putbacks and clean ups. So comparing their per48 numbers is very silly. If they were featured in the offense, their efficiency would nosedive. Run set plays for those two players and we'll see how they fare. Good effort, but yeah, it's painfully obvious that entire premise is complete trash to anyone not an amateur. Everything else you said about who you'd take over the next 5 years is also very silly, mostly because you're using players with tiny sample sizes. Are you extrapolating their numbers too? Because that will NEVER be accurate. Honestly, it's dumb. You're comparing apples to oranges and pretending like the oranges aren't oranges. Please try again.

Vucevic is efficient. He doesn't get to the line but he's efficient. I don't see how you can argue that. What does Bogut have to do with this? His post up game is irrelevant because of the offense. Why even mention it? You mentioned straw man, well thanks for the red herring.

I feel like two separate people are using your account, because you don't seem to remember things you wrote the day before. YOU brought up Bogut when you said that you wouldn't take him over Vucevic. I explained why that was a poor opinion, and correlated that to other players who are light-years ahead of Vucevic defensively.

As far as "put backs" etc, if it were easy everyone would do it. Do you WANT to run plays that only get you 20% more points for 50% more possessions, or would you rather run more efficient plays for other players? They don't have to run post plays for those guys, BECAUSE THEY GET PLENTY OF POINTS ALREADY. That's why I picked them over Vucevic, because they have good usage % on crazy efficiency.

Vucevic is NOT efficient. He's average, or slightly below. He takes an insanely high volume and does not convert on them well. You say he's efficient, but have not provided any evidence to prove it.


As far as sample size, Plumlee's been playing for a year and a half at an insane level. Val has been for 2 years. Conversely, Vucevic has been at roughly the same level for two and a half years. I'm not sure what you think a statistically significant sample size is, but apparently it falls between 2 and 2.5 years. GTFO.

dalton749
02-02-2015, 01:32 PM
Vuc is good, but he can't put up those numbers on a winning team.
Valanciunas can create his own shot in the post, not as well as vucevic right now because he hasn't had the consistent reps to get comfortable in double teams, but is already a better defender and will be seeing his second hca playoffs this year at 22, not many centers on that list.
There's not a gm in the league that would choose vuc over Val
Plumlee is what he is, good, but will likely always be limited to a garbage man/ hustle player because of his inability to hit free throws

M.I.A.
02-02-2015, 02:01 PM
thyre not even really trying to make the playoffs, its a rebuilding team who is focusing on player development. I didnt see love take Minny to the playoffs, I dont see AD taking NO to the playoffs, i dont see Cousins taking Sac anywhere near the playoffs, etc

My point is that if Vucevic was a superstar then the Magic would be a playoff team. He isn't and they're not.

Sure, nobody is really trying to make the playoffs. Sure they aren't. They're not even trying to win any games. :facepalm:

2-ONE-5
02-02-2015, 02:35 PM
No one called him a superstar

IndyRealist
02-02-2015, 04:00 PM
No one called him a superstar


Vuc is easily in the top 4-7 range in C's in this league depending on how you value your center.

I don't yet consider Vuc a top 10 center but 15 or 18 guys better? No....Again, Vucevic is not yet a top 10 center but he'll be there very soon. 18 guys being better than him is complete bull****.
Take those statements for what you will.

2-ONE-5
02-02-2015, 04:13 PM
a top 10 center doesnt equal a superstar. neither of those posts even suggest it so i dont know what you are reading here

5ass
02-02-2015, 04:15 PM
Take those statements for what you will.

Straw man argument.

M.I.A.
02-02-2015, 04:36 PM
No one called him a superstar

Then why bother talking about him?

2-ONE-5
02-02-2015, 04:55 PM
Then why bother talking about him?

i forgot on PSD you can only talk about Kobe, James, or the Knicks what are we thinking?

RLundi
02-02-2015, 04:59 PM
I feel like two separate people are using your account, because you don't seem to remember things you wrote the day before. YOU brought up Bogut when you said that you wouldn't take him over Vucevic. I explained why that was a poor opinion, and correlated that to other players who are light-years ahead of Vucevic defensively.

As far as "put backs" etc, if it were easy everyone would do it. Do you WANT to run plays that only get you 20% more points for 50% more possessions, or would you rather run more efficient plays for other players? They don't have to run post plays for those guys, BECAUSE THEY GET PLENTY OF POINTS ALREADY. That's why I picked them over Vucevic, because they have good usage % on crazy efficiency.

Vucevic is NOT efficient. He's average, or slightly below. He takes an insanely high volume and does not convert on them well. You say he's efficient, but have not provided any evidence to prove it.


As far as sample size, Plumlee's been playing for a year and a half at an insane level. Val has been for 2 years. Conversely, Vucevic has been at roughly the same level for two and a half years. I'm not sure what you think a statistically significant sample size is, but apparently it falls between 2 and 2.5 years. GTFO.

Oh I misunserstood what you were saying about Bogut. Fair enough. I'd still take Vucevic over Bogut. To each his own. It's easier to find or replicate a big that can be a defensive anchor or presence. It's valuable but it's not a rare commodity. A 20-10 center is rare nowadays. I'm taking that over a player who's often-injured and older.

And I'm sorry but do you have any clue what the **** you're talking about? I went back and reread your other post. You said Vucevic isn't efficient because his true shooting percentage isn't high enough over league average for centers? That is a very dumb thing to say. .550 is a great TS%, position notwithstanding, especially since Vucevic doesn't operate on putbacks and clean ups like many centers. He actually has set plays ran for him because he's consistent. .560 IS efficient, you need to brush up on your advanced statistics. He shoots .530 from the field. He's only penalized because he doesn't shoot free throws.

Honest to god, I feel like I'm talking to a wall. Do you not place any value in creating your own shot? Unbelievable. When did you start watching basketball? Serious question. I honestly can't believe I'm worked up but you are just asinine. Marc Gasol is literally JUST as "inefficient" as Vucevic is, so by your faulty logic, offensively you'd take Val or Plumlee over him too?

I'm done with you because truthfully speaking, you're an imbecile. You GTFO and come back inside with some common sense.

RLundi
02-02-2015, 05:01 PM
Then why bother talking about him?

The Hawks have no superstars. Should we not talk about them either even though they are dominating the league?

IndyRealist
02-02-2015, 06:47 PM
Oh I misunserstood what you were saying about Bogut. Fair enough. I'd still take Vucevic over Bogut. To each his own. It's easier to find or replicate a big that can be a defensive anchor or presence. It's valuable but it's not a rare commodity. A 20-10 center is rare nowadays. I'm taking that over a player who's often-injured and older.

And I'm sorry but do you have any clue what the **** you're talking about? I went back and reread your other post. You said Vucevic isn't efficient because his true shooting percentage isn't high enough over league average for centers? That is a very dumb thing to say. .550 is a great TS%, position notwithstanding, especially since Vucevic doesn't operate on putbacks and clean ups like many centers. He actually has set plays ran for him because he's consistent. .560 IS efficient, you need to brush up on your advanced statistics. He shoots .530 from the field. He's only penalized because he doesn't shoot free throws.

Honest to god, I feel like I'm talking to a wall. Do you not place any value in creating your own shot? Unbelievable. When did you start watching basketball? Serious question. I honestly can't believe I'm worked up but you are just asinine. Marc Gasol is literally JUST as "inefficient" as Vucevic is, so by your faulty logic, offensively you'd take Val or Plumlee over him too?

I'm done with you because truthfully speaking, you're an imbecile. You GTFO and come back inside with some common sense.

You still haven't provided any evidence whatsoever. All you've done is be derogatory, try to attack me because you can't defend your position, and talk in circles.

For the record, I'm 36 and have been watching and playing basketball for 30 years, because I'm from Indiana and that's normal there. I have a degree in CS/advanced mathematics and work in a hospital. I started serious interest in advanced stats 10 years ago when I read an article about how metrics said Jermaine O'Neal was massively overpaid, despite being a 20-10 player. Which is kind of appropriate.

We're the only two in this conversation, and neither of us are convincing one another. Truce.

D-Leethal
02-02-2015, 07:21 PM
You have to account for the ability to create your own offense in the post, the ability to draw multiple defenders and the impact that might have on your efficiency when comparing a guy like Vuc to a garbage man like Plumlee. You can't just analyze their PPS in a vaccum and say "that guy is the better offensive player because these numbers say so". There is not one high level basketball mind in the world that will tell you Plumlee is a better offensive player than Vucevic.

Vucevic is asked to create shots against 1-2 stationary defenders, he is asked to beat guys mono-e-mono and score. Brooklyn has 3-4 other guys who do that, which means Plumlee feasts off shots that have a 95% chance of going in before he even gets the ball. Vucevic doesn't have that luxury, and if Plumlee was on a roster that required him to create offense the way Vucevic is required to do, his efficiency would plummet and he wouldn't be able to up his production to a 20-10 level, and conversely if Vucevic was on a stacked team that only asked for an easy, efficient double double off put backs and table scraps he could EASILY fill that role and be every bit as efficient as a guy like Plumlee.

Listen, stats are great to include in your analysis, but you seem to have a very difficult time drawing appropriate conclusions from them on top of learning when to ignore them when they are misleading, which is obviously the case here.

D-Leethal
02-02-2015, 07:24 PM
Your stat line, advanced and rudimentary alike, is a product of your role, your teammates, the system you play in and what you are asked to do before they are a product of "how good you are". Comparing efficiency for two guys in complete opposite roles on their respective teams is a stupid exercise for many, many reasons. If you want fair comparison - do it with guys like Brook, Aldridge, Marc, Pau, Al Jeff, Monroe, and other big guys who are asked to be a featured scoring option from the post and face similar defensive attention.

smith&wesson
02-02-2015, 08:28 PM
Cousins
P.Gasol
M.Gasol
Horford (I know he is a PF, but he starts at C)
Howard
Al Jeff
Timmy D
Noah
Vucevic??


I have no idea where to rank the Lopez bros, T.Chandler, Bogut, Jonas V, AV, Asik, Gortat etc...

Honestly the C position is so weak, half these guys are PF's naturally. Also No matter where you rank most C's these days it really doesnt matter as they are all pretty mediocre in comparison to true C's in the past such as Shaq, Kareem, Chamberlin, Hakeem etc.

D-Leethal
02-02-2015, 08:36 PM
delete

smith&wesson
02-02-2015, 08:43 PM
Your stat line, advanced and rudimentary alike, is a product of your role, your teammates, the system you play in and what you are asked to do before they are a product of "how good you are". Comparing efficiency for two guys in complete opposite roles on their respective teams is a stupid exercise for many, many reasons. If you want fair comparison - do it with guys like Brook, Aldridge, Marc, Pau, Al Jeff, Monroe, and other big guys who are asked to be a featured scoring option from the post and face similar defensive attention.

I agree, stats donít tell all.

If Vucevics numbers were anything more than inflated stats, he would be leading the magic win much more games. I think he is good C but not one you can build your team around.. He is more like a really good starter at your C position rather than a corner stone.

IndyRealist
02-02-2015, 10:26 PM
No one said stats tell everything. You cannot use stats without watching game footage for context on what you are analyzing. Stats are a starting point, not an answer. Conversely, you cannot rely solely on watching games footage without referencing stats because a) your eyes can, and most often do, deceive you, and b) your memory is faulty. There are whole fields of psychology built around studying these two principles. That's why people started writing stats down in the first place. This is an old argument that people on both sides like to pretend they don't remember. Probably because their memory is faulty.

D-Leethal, I certainly never said that Plumlee, in Vucevic's spot, would produce as well or better. In fact, I implied that Vucevic is being force fed because the Magic are tanking. Any center would struggle in his role with how he's asked to score, given current rules. If his team ran a more balanced offense he'd be much more efficient. But they don't, and he isn't. I also never imply, anywhere, that he's a trash player. Vucevic is above average by most measures. He's just not significantly above average as a scorer. He defense is Love-ian, though.

But to get to the crux of your point, basically you say that you can never compare players, ever, because they are not in the same context, asked to score the same way, have the same teammates, drink the same brand of coffee in the morning, etc. That's such an extreme statement it borders on silly. No players will ever have the same exact context unless they are traded straight up for each other midseason. So MVPs should never be awarded, or ROY, DPOY, all-star voting, top 10 and top 50 lists should never be made, and the HoF should be dissolved. Because all of those are ranking players against each other despite the lack of similar context. It is a necessary conceit that you accept that context is not exactly the same and control for variables as much as possible.

IndyRealist
02-02-2015, 10:37 PM
Let me put it another way: who has a better chance of winning DPOY, Tony Allen or Anthony Davis? If you have an opinion, you proved my point. How would you even compare a non-shooting guard and a do-it-all PF? A lock down ball-stopper and a freak rim protector? But you do. You control for variables, you compare them in their own contexts.

2-ONE-5
02-03-2015, 09:51 AM
I agree, stats donít tell all.

If Vucevics numbers were anything more than inflated stats, he would be leading the magic win much more games. I think he is good C but not one you can build your team around.. He is more like a really good starter at your C position rather than a corner stone.

do you not see the Magics roster? Do you think Cousins has inflated stats?

D-Leethal
02-03-2015, 11:37 AM
No one said stats tell everything. You cannot use stats without watching game footage for context on what you are analyzing. Stats are a starting point, not an answer. Conversely, you cannot rely solely on watching games footage without referencing stats because a) your eyes can, and most often do, deceive you, and b) your memory is faulty. There are whole fields of psychology built around studying these two principles. That's why people started writing stats down in the first place. This is an old argument that people on both sides like to pretend they don't remember. Probably because their memory is faulty.

D-Leethal, I certainly never said that Plumlee, in Vucevic's spot, would produce as well or better. In fact, I implied that Vucevic is being force fed because the Magic are tanking. Any center would struggle in his role with how he's asked to score, given current rules. If his team ran a more balanced offense he'd be much more efficient. But they don't, and he isn't. I also never imply, anywhere, that he's a trash player. Vucevic is above average by most measures. He's just not significantly above average as a scorer. He defense is Love-ian, though.

But to get to the crux of your point, basically you say that you can never compare players, ever, because they are not in the same context, asked to score the same way, have the same teammates, drink the same brand of coffee in the morning, etc. That's such an extreme statement it borders on silly. No players will ever have the same exact context unless they are traded straight up for each other midseason. So MVPs should never be awarded, or ROY, DPOY, all-star voting, top 10 and top 50 lists should never be made, and the HoF should be dissolved. Because all of those are ranking players against each other despite the lack of similar context. It is a necessary conceit that you accept that context is not exactly the same and control for variables as much as possible.

Talk about strawman, you didn't address anything I actually said and basically just hyperbolized it all and avoid the crux of your original argument, which was:


Plumlee and Val ARE better offensive players.

I never said using stats with context is a bad thing, I said comparing efficiency for complete opposite roles and using that as a basis of "whose the better offensive player" is a stupid exercise and it is. I didn't say you can't compare them, I said don't use PPS, TS% or your other favorite efficiency stats to compare a guy facing double teams and a guy who is a featured scorer to a guy who feasts of table scraps and is never asked to take a shot late in the lock or a shot that isn't a slam dunk, literally. The way Plumlee plays, that efficiency would never be sustainable at a higher usage rate and he wouldn't be able to get more than the 6-8 quality looks he gets a game with his limited skills on the offensive end.

I also said, compare guys in similar roles, I gave you a nice pretty list too but you seem to think they have to drink the same coffee or something. You basically just did exactly what you have been complaining about Lundi doing this whole argument - avoiding the rebuttals and tossing out strawmans.

You said Plumlee was a better offensive player and pointed to your favorite stat in a vaccum like that was supposed to prove your point or something, but it seems like you are acknowledging that was a stupid thing to do, so we will leave it at that.

RLundi
02-03-2015, 01:24 PM
You still haven't provided any evidence whatsoever. All you've done is be derogatory, try to attack me because you can't defend your position, and talk in circles.

For the record, I'm 36 and have been watching and playing basketball for 30 years, because I'm from Indiana and that's normal there. I have a degree in CS/advanced mathematics and work in a hospital. I started serious interest in advanced stats 10 years ago when I read an article about how metrics said Jermaine O'Neal was massively overpaid, despite being a 20-10 player. Which is kind of appropriate.

We're the only two in this conversation, and neither of us are convincing one another. Truce.

I can't help being derogatory because you truthfully don't understand what you are talking about. Your age and playing basketball are not substitutes for knowledge, neither is your degree an indication of skills connecting numbers with relativity. I'm sorry, but all it tells me is you've spent the better part of 3 decades misapplying information. I've defended my position clearly, but you don't understand it and that's fine, but it's not my job to explain how to apply advanced metrics.



D-Leethal, I certainly never said that Plumlee, in Vucevic's spot, would produce as well or better. In fact, I implied that Vucevic is being force fed because the Magic are tanking. Any center would struggle in his role with how he's asked to score, given current rules. If his team ran a more balanced offense he'd be much more efficient. But they don't, and he isn't. I also never imply, anywhere, that he's a trash player. Vucevic is above average by most measures. He's just not significantly above average as a scorer. He defense is Love-ian, though.

Now you're backtracking pretty egregiously. You did in fact say that you'd take several other players ahead of Vucevic, like Plumlee and Val, because they are better offensive players, which is horridly untrue. And Vucevic is NOT being force-fed the ball. I don't know why you continue to assert that, but you're dead wrong in that too. His usage is not especially high and he doesn't force shots up the way you say he does. The Magic aren't tanking either, btw, more misinformation from you. They're just bad. And here's where you backtrack some more: You stated Vucevic was a below-average offensive player, but you're switching gears again?


But to get to the crux of your point, basically you say that you can never compare players, ever, because they are not in the same context, asked to score the same way, have the same teammates, drink the same brand of coffee in the morning, etc. That's such an extreme statement it borders on silly. No players will ever have the same exact context unless they are traded straight up for each other midseason. So MVPs should never be awarded, or ROY, DPOY, all-star voting, top 10 and top 50 lists should never be made, and the HoF should be dissolved. Because all of those are ranking players against each other despite the lack of similar context. It is a necessary conceit that you accept that context is not exactly the same and control for variables as much as possible.

This is a terrible argument. I won't even address it. You're putting words in people's mouths by literally making things up. Your false comparison is laughable at this point. You don't have a leg to stand on (you never did) and now you're just shoveling **** and expecting anyone in earshot to believe it's dirt.

smith&wesson
02-03-2015, 01:53 PM
do you not see the Magics roster? Do you think Cousins has inflated stats?

If the kings were in the east they would probably be a playoff team. Harris, Oladipo are no slouches either.

Im not saying that vucevic sucks. I think he is a really good player. I just dont see him as someone you can build a team around, much like Jonas V on my raptors. I see him as a solid C in this league and will only get better. But I wouldnt build my team around him as if he is a corner stone. thats pretty much how I see vucevic.

macc
02-03-2015, 02:32 PM
My point is that if Vucevic was a superstar then the Magic would be a playoff team. He isn't and they're not.

Sure, nobody is really trying to make the playoffs. Sure they aren't. They're not even trying to win any games. :facepalm:



LOL. Ok so using your logic then Kevin Love, Kevin Garnett (Minnesota days), Anthony Davis aren't stars?

I wonder if people ever think before they hit the post button?

Vendetta_
02-03-2015, 03:04 PM
Back up center on a contending team at best.

M.I.A.
02-03-2015, 04:06 PM
LOL. Ok so using your logic then Kevin Love, Kevin Garnett (Minnesota days), Anthony Davis aren't stars?

I wonder if people ever think before they hit the post button?

After reading that post I have to wonder the same thing.

M.I.A.
02-03-2015, 04:07 PM
Back up center on a contending team at best.

This guy gets it.

2-ONE-5
02-03-2015, 05:13 PM
After reading that post I have to wonder the same thing.

i asked that question twice and no one wants to asnswer it

RiLoc
02-03-2015, 06:35 PM
thyre not even really trying to make the playoffs, its a rebuilding team who is focusing on player development. I didnt see love take Minny to the playoffs, I dont see AD taking NO to the playoffs, i dont see Cousins taking Sac anywhere near the playoffs, etc

i asked that question twice and no one wants to asnswer it
The difference is that Vucevic hasn't shown himself to be as impactful on the court as any of those guys...

2013-14 Kevin Love
ORPM: 3.52
DRPM: 1.54
RPM: 5.06
WS/48: .245

Anthony Davis
ORPM: 2.92
DRPM: 4.01
RPM: 6.93
WS/48: .299

DeMarcus Cousins
ORPM: 1.17
DRPM: 5.16
RPM: 6.33
WS/48: .150

Nikola Vucevic
ORPM: -1.35
DRPM: 0.07
RPM: -1.28
WS/48: .142

RPM is the best statistical tool available for measuring impact on the court, look at the ESPN explanation: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus.

Want an answer without stats? Fair enough. Nikola Vucevic rebounds like crazy and has really nice touch on his mid range shots and floaters, particularly off of pick 'n' rolls. The downside is he doesn't have explosive finishes off cuts that keep defenders on alert, can't shoot the three that stretches the floor, can't defend the rim and his defense is subpar. That creates a serious personnel issue, because to maximize your bigs you'll need another big who can stretch the floor with a three and can protect the rim. The other bigs you mentioned do not have that compatibility issue.

D-Leethal
02-03-2015, 09:17 PM
The difference is that Vucevic hasn't shown himself to be as impactful on the court as any of those guys...

2013-14 Kevin Love
ORPM: 3.52
DRPM: 1.54
RPM: 5.06
WS/48: .245

Anthony Davis
ORPM: 2.92
DRPM: 4.01
RPM: 6.93
WS/48: .299

DeMarcus Cousins
ORPM: 1.17
DRPM: 5.16
RPM: 6.33
WS/48: .150

Nikola Vucevic
ORPM: -1.35
DRPM: 0.07
RPM: -1.28
WS/48: .142

RPM is the best statistical tool available for measuring impact on the court, look at the ESPN explanation: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus.

Want an answer without stats? Fair enough. Nikola Vucevic rebounds like crazy and has really nice touch on his mid range shots and floaters, particularly off of pick 'n' rolls. The downside is he doesn't have explosive finishes off cuts that keep defenders on alert, can't shoot the three that stretches the floor, can't defend the rim and his defense is subpar. That creates a serious personnel issue, because to maximize your bigs you'll need another big who can stretch the floor with a three and can protect the rim. The other bigs you mentioned do not have that compatibility issue.

If OKC ends up tearing it down, Serge Ibaka seems like he was tailor made to play PF next to a guy like Vuc.

M.I.A.
02-03-2015, 11:13 PM
If OKC ends up tearing it down, Serge Ibaka seems like he was tailor made to play PF next to a guy like Vuc.

Somehow I don't see Serge in Orlando.

flea
02-05-2015, 05:25 PM
I'd rather have Vuc than a guy like Kevin Love on my team. I watch a good amount of Magic games because I like their team this year so I've seen him a fair amount. People talk about his jumper, which is certainly nice, but it's his low post game that lets him score like he does. For as young as he is he's very polished in the low post. In fact, I think the Magic should run their offense through him down there more often - as it seems like he is often not utilized at all or only as a bailout option at the end of the shot clock from the high post.

Defensively he's challenged but he's very young. But that's not to say he'll never be good. Being a well-rounded post defender in the zone defense era is probably the most difficult thing to learn in the modern NBA. I doubt he'll ever be an elite rim protector, but there are only 3 or 4 of those in the NBA at any given time. He's got very good length and height, even if he's not a great athlete. Once he learns help concepts and rotations he should be, at worst, an average center defensively. Even if he doesn't, his jumper is good enough to where you can play him next to a more traditional shotblocker and not kill yourself with spacing.

No reason he can't be a bigger and longer Z-Bo - which is a pretty exciting player offensively. The Magic look like they're going for 2-way players on the perimeter, which is really helpful for a guy you're not going to rely upon to give you a top 10 defense ever.