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View Full Version : Take the over under on the Cavs?



JEDean89
10-01-2014, 04:23 PM
http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11619674/las-vegas-westgate-superbook-sets-win-totals-nba-cleveland-cavaliers-league-best-585

So Vegas has the cavs as the best team in the league. I'm taking that under all day. 58.5 is too high for a new team, with many question marks. While I expect this team to, in a couple seasons get over 60 wins until then here are my concerns.

1) Not enough interior defense or big man depth. They are relying on K-Love, Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao to hold down the paint. Outside of that, if one of the 3 go down (look at K-Loves and Varejao's injury history) they will forced to play incredibly small with Brendon Haywood and Lou Amondson as there only other true bigs. The league now makes it really tough to get quality bigs. The heat weren't able to add one quality big in 4 years. The Cavs failed to trade for 2 backup C's (Mozzy and Koufos). You just can't get em, you gotta develop them or trade equal value for them which the cavs don't want to do (cause it would mean giving up Thompson or Waiters) This will be a massive problem against the far bigger Bulls, Spurs, Thunder etc...

2) The league will be better next year. It's funny but looking around, the Heat, the Wolves and the Pacers are the only team that I think will actually be worse than they were last year. The East will be way more competitive. With teams like Wizards, Cavs, Bulls, Raptors, Heat Hornets all looking like potential 50 win teams.

3) Cohesiveness of team and David Blatt's NBA learning curve. Miami won 58 games there first season together. IMO that team was way more built to win now than this Cavs team. It will take at least one season to get this team gelling. With all the young guys and the fact that everyone will be learning a new system, I just don't see them hitting the ground running. Once they gel and can make a roster move or two, watch out.

4) The SG position. This is the least worrying of my Q's but Shawn Marion is 36 years old with a 13.78 PER last year. If his body keeps declining, he will not be able to be a defensive stud anymore, rendering him useless (think Shane Battier on the Heat but with worse shooting). Dion Waiters is a child. The guy clearly just missed out on too many important life lessons growing up. His production is bad, 14 PER with bad defense and bad shooting. Maybe he can be molded into the next Dwayne Wade like was hyped but I don't think this team needs another 20ppg guy. They need a lights out shooter who can defend at that position and unless Ray Allen signs and can still defend at 39 years, I think the C and SG spots will be a massive detriment to this team.

The Cavs have the foundation to be a dynasty. This is not about the potential for this team long term, this is the potential about this team this season. I have no doubt that the young guys will get better, K-Love will produce and LBJ will be LBJ. However I think the league will make winning 60 games very tough this year. With the insane amount of back to backs (up from the extended allstar break) and the increase in league parity, I just don't see this young new team winning 58.5 games. I'm taking the under, putting them as a 54-55 win team.

goingfor28
10-01-2014, 04:47 PM
I don't think they'll be the best team in the NBA. They might win 60 games and be the best in the east tho yes. But they'll be behind SA, OKC, and LAC

Hawkeye15
10-01-2014, 04:49 PM
they will probably have the best regular season record, playing in the east. Their offense will be too much for most teams to compete with. I think 55-58 wins is realistic, barring any injuries to the top 3 players long term.

I do think they will be slightly better defensively than people give them credit for, but come playoff time, deep in the playoffs, I have concerns whether it will indeed be good enough.

5ass
10-01-2014, 04:58 PM
They need to trade waiters and/or Thompson for big man depth and a 3 and D SG.

Tony_Starks
10-01-2014, 05:02 PM
58 seems a bit high. The Bulls and Heat will not be pushovers and they still have to come out West. Definitely don't see them leading the league.

I don't think Super Friends Part 1 even won that many and they had less question marks than this new version.

Goose17
10-01-2014, 05:06 PM
They need to trade waiters and/or Thompson for big man depth and a 3 and D SG.

They should be looking to S&T Wes Mathews while he's in his contract year. Doubt they can afford him though given the rest of that roster. Doubt they could pry him away from Portland either.

TheGame
10-01-2014, 05:10 PM
I see them getting about 60 wins in the easy east. I don't expect much out of the 32% shooting Bulls.
Miami is all talk, they'll win about 42 games. washington is still led by a dumb pg.
They'll win a little over 60 but if you put the Cavs in the West then probably about 55 wins.

WITZ
10-01-2014, 05:22 PM
I don't know about the cavs ,but if anybody is in Vegas taking the bulls at under 55 seems like money to be made.

SanPitte
10-01-2014, 05:31 PM
-Varejao, Love, Thompson, Haywood and Amundson is a better big men rotation than most teams in the league.
i think the Cavs could be in trouble if 2 of the first 3 miss a bunch of games, but they'd be fine even if one of those gets injured...don't forget that Lebron can be a very good PF if needed
-Waiters is a good SG
-the Heat went to 4 straight finals without a C and a mediocre PG, the Cavs team is more balanced IMO
-they have Lebron

the only weakness i see (besides a bunch of injuries) is on D, but as Hawkeye said, i think they'll be better defensively than most people think (playing for a title and alongside Bron could do wonders for Love and Kyrie's motivation on D)

Jamiecballer
10-01-2014, 05:32 PM
I'm with you OP. 58.5 seems about 5-7 too high right now.

Legitimate
10-01-2014, 05:43 PM
terrance ross is the missing piece for the Cavs... we'll take thompson and a first round pick

Dade County
10-01-2014, 05:51 PM
They should win about 68 games this year.

Arch Stanton
10-01-2014, 09:43 PM
The Cavs won 66 games with LeBron 1.0, which included a sub par cast of players. I think it's totally reasonable to think they can win 60 plus games.

Tony_Starks
10-01-2014, 10:09 PM
The Cavs won 66 games with LeBron 1.0, which included a sub par cast of players. I think it's totally reasonable to think they can win 60 plus games.

Except that team was one of, if not the best, defensive teams in the league.

These guys? Ehh....not so much.

Arch Stanton
10-01-2014, 10:18 PM
Except that team was one of, if not the best, defensive teams in the league.

These guys? Ehh....not so much.

I think the defense will be average at worst, and the offense will be ten times better than previously. And the East is still weak. I don't see them winning 66 games this year, but certainly 60-62, 63 is reasonable.

D-Leethal
10-01-2014, 11:19 PM
Over.

Sadds The Gr8
10-01-2014, 11:22 PM
It'll be close. If i were betting I'd say slightly under

Corey
10-01-2014, 11:27 PM
Ill take the over. Injury is always concern to a few key players but they're going to be good.

bucketss
10-01-2014, 11:34 PM
terrance ross is the missing piece for the Cavs... we'll take thompson and a first round pick

why would toronto do that