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View Full Version : Question about the ramifications that the knew TV deal will have on NBA Teams



IKnowHoops
07-25-2014, 01:48 PM
1st Question

How much is the cap supposed to increase by next season? And does this mean that if there was a 18 million jump in cap space, does that mean all teams will have the ability to go get a guy for 18 mill if they so choose.

Is everyone going to be in play for Kevin Durant then because every team will have the space to sign him?

IKnowHoops
07-25-2014, 01:48 PM
1st Question

How much is the cap supposed to increase by next season? And does this mean that if there was a 18 million jump in cap space, does that mean all teams will have the ability to go get a guy for 18 mill if they so choose.

Is everyone going to be in play for Kevin Durant then because every team will have the space to sign him?

If so, Durant and Bron will play together.

kingsdelez24
07-25-2014, 03:01 PM
If the cap jumps 18 mil then so will the market. For example, if the cap is at 80 mil, then the Derrick Rose rule max is wortb 30 percent of the cap, plus raises. So basically someone like Bledsoe could be asking for 26.6 mil a year. Teams of course wont pay him that much, so the market technically fixes itself as these mid tier stars will end up having to sign for their actual price

MTar786
07-25-2014, 03:19 PM
lol kobes career is ending at the wrong time

IKnowHoops
07-25-2014, 03:26 PM
If the cap jumps 18 mil then so will the market. For example, if the cap is at 80 mil, then the Derrick Rose rule max is wortb 30 percent of the cap, plus raises. So basically someone like Bledsoe could be asking for 26.6 mil a year. Teams of course wont pay him that much, so the market technically fixes itself as these mid tier stars will end up having to sign for their actual price

So will Melo's deal go up or will it stay the same?

D-Leethal
07-25-2014, 03:38 PM
I don't think deals rise proportionally or there wouldn't have been so much chatter about LeBron positioning himself for a crazy max contract in 2 years. He would have just signed the max now and his contract would have raised accordingly to the new max.

It is a good question though - I mean are teams all of a sudden going to have a ridiculous amount of cap space overnight? Are teams in position like this years Philly going to be like 20M under the salary floor?

hugepatsfan
07-25-2014, 03:42 PM
The cap will go up but all the players' salaries will stay what they are if they're already under contract.

"Max contract" under the current CBA is determined by a percentage of the overall cap. So the max salary will rise with the salary cap.

slashsnake
07-25-2014, 03:48 PM
So will Melo's deal go up or will it stay the same?

I believe the contracts stay the same, which is why some stars are keeping that option to opt out. Jordan got tied into a long term deal before a jump in tv revenue (largely due to him) and nearly left Chicago when he finally hit free agency because the Bulls wouldn't re-negotiate during that contract. He got a 30 mil a year deal instead to make up for it as his contract did end at the big jump year in 1996. Guys like Barkley were making 20% more than MJ just before that final deal with the bulls. That 1996 free agency was pretty crazy. Cap went up 50% (insane jump) and they cut back rules on restricted free agency (only had to complete a rookie contract to be unrestricted, before had to complete two contracts). Jordan. Shaq, Zo, Payton, Miller, Mutombo, Juwan Howard, Kenny Andersen, Dominique, Allan Houston... Larry Johnson, Tim Hardaway, and Barkley were in situations like Love where they could force a sign and trade I believe too. Was a crazy off season. Today with the increased media and social media it would be insanity.

So for teams that have space or are tight against the cap it could give them more money to spend. But for a team like the Nets, while it would be a huge help for their luxury tax, it doesn't actually free up money to spend on free agents. It would however open up more potential trade partners to take on salaries.

I just wonder who will pull the Jim McIlvaine contract off this time? lol

kingsdelez24
07-25-2014, 03:55 PM
If the cap jumps 18 mil then so will the market. For example, if the cap is at 80 mil, then the Derrick Rose rule max is wortb 30 percent of the cap, plus raises. So basically someone like Bledsoe could be asking for 26.6 mil a year. Teams of course wont pay him that much, so the market technically fixes itself as these mid tier stars will end up having to sign for their actual price

So will Melo's deal go up or will it stay the same?

Deals can't be renegotiated like that. His contract, along with everyone else who signed prior the next cba carries onto the next. If Melo signed his max after the new deal, then it would be higher.

So if the cap rises that much, people like Lebron, who signed two year deals did the right thing, because their value has a small chance of falling.
For example, Deng signed for 10 million a year now, and if the cap actuallu rises that much, his value probably wont fall below 10 million for the rest of his career, barring injury or rapid decline

Mr.B
07-25-2014, 04:12 PM
If so, Durant and Bron will play together.

I don't see that happening at all. Every team with cap space will obviously make a run at him but there are really only two teams I could see him signing with... OKC (especially if they win a title), or Washington.

Mr.B
07-25-2014, 04:14 PM
The cap will go up but all the players' salaries will stay what they are if they're already under contract.

"Max contract" under the current CBA is determined by a percentage of the overall cap. So the max salary will rise with the salary cap.

Exactly! That's why Labron only signed a 2 year deal. It allows him to negotiate a new deal when the salary cap increases.

JEDean89
07-25-2014, 05:55 PM
I was reading about this and from what I understand the current deal is for 900 mil a year and the new contract is expected to be in MLB contract of 1.5 bil a year. so that is 600 mill extra, divided in 1/2 because that goes to owners and then divided by 30 for the amount of teams. that should give about a 10 mil increase to the salary cap, on top of the roughly 5 or so mil it is conservatively estimated to grown in the mean time, so expect around a 70 mil cap, an 85 mil luxury and a number of teams going over the 100 mil mark.

IKnowHoops
07-25-2014, 06:15 PM
I was reading about this and from what I understand the current deal is for 900 mil a year and the new contract is expected to be in MLB contract of 1.5 bil a year. so that is 600 mill extra, divided in 1/2 because that goes to owners and then divided by 30 for the amount of teams. that should give about a 10 mil increase to the salary cap, on top of the roughly 5 or so mil it is conservatively estimated to grown in the mean time, so expect around a 70 mil cap, an 85 mil luxury and a number of teams going over the 100 mil mark.

Or 900 million dollar deal gets you roughly 60Mill in cap space after the owners get theres, projecting the same math to a 1.5 billion dollar deal and we get...Then the cap would be at 100 million dollars.

IndyRealist
07-25-2014, 06:39 PM
1. The new TV deal will not affect the cap until 2016-2017. The current TV deal runs out at the end of the 2015-2016 season.
2. As was noted, max deals are 30% of the cap in the first year of the contract, with annual raises (I think it's 7.5%). So max players who are under contract when the cap jumps will only see a 7.5% raise, not the huge jump a free agent will get. This is why Lebron's contract is only 2 years.
3. The primary benefit will be to teams already under the cap. If the cap is at 70M and jumps to 85M, but you're already at 80M in salary commitments, then you would be 5M under the cap. However, if you were at 65M in salary, then you would be 20M under the cap.
4. Because of 2 and 3, this does not substantially change who can bid for Durant. It virtually ensures that he will say with the Thunder, though. OKC can still offer a 5th year and higher raises, AND can afford to max him since they will gain $15M or so in extra room before the tax line.
5. Certain players, whoever the Eric Bledsoes of free agency are in 2016, will get overpaid. Teams will be flush with cap space and want to make a splash. Except there are only a finite number of stars in the league, and the 2nd/3rd tier guys will get paid like 1st tier guys.

IndyRealist
07-25-2014, 06:42 PM
Or 900 million dollar deal gets you roughly 60Mill in cap space after the owners get theres, projecting the same math to a 1.5 billion dollar deal and we get...Then the cap would be at 100 million dollars.
That's not how it works. The cap is a percentage of BRI, which includes a lot more than just TV revenue. An increase in JUST TV revenue does not give you the same percentage increase in cap space.

NBA_Starter
07-25-2014, 10:07 PM
So we will have another lockout?

IndyRealist
07-25-2014, 10:45 PM
So we will have another lockout?

The NBAPA counseled free agents to have their pay scheduled over 18 months instead of 12. I would think that means that they are anticipating a 6 month lockout.

Bramaca
07-25-2014, 11:27 PM
The cap is $63 million this season and the cap is expected to go up around 3 million for next season so with the increase in 2016 with the tv deal I could see the cap go up to something like $75-77 million.