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View Full Version : Heat Finals Appearance is due to weak 2014 Eastern Conference



%%%%
06-12-2014, 11:24 PM
True or False?

Mavericks, Thunder, and maybe Clippers would have stood a good shot against this Heat team.

Had the Heat been in the Western Conference, they would not have made it past the semi-finals. They deluded us by dominating a weak Eastern Conference, with marginal teams like Brooklyn and Indiana.

CaptainROFL
06-12-2014, 11:25 PM
No mavericks thunder and clippers suck

force_within
06-12-2014, 11:35 PM
False, they had more rest, harder competition and opponents. The media and statistics tell you Eastern Conference sucks but the Nets are just as good as the Spurs you just don't see it because they felt bad for Ray Allen, they wanted Allen to get another ring so Nets lets Heat have the victory.

The Nets roster were former teamates of 3pt shooter Ray Allen while he was with the Celtics.

lol

Knick bag
06-12-2014, 11:52 PM
False, they had more rest, harder competition and opponents. The media and statistics tell you Eastern Conference sucks but the Nets are just as good as the Spurs you just don't see it because they felt bad for Ray Allen, they wanted Allen to get another ring so Nets lets Heat have the victory.

The Nets roster were former teamates of 3pt shooter Ray Allen while he was with the Celtics.



Hahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

jerellh528
06-12-2014, 11:54 PM
Heat have better players than most teams but their coaching sucks. That said, they wouldn't have made it past a handful of western teams

SPURSFAN1
06-13-2014, 12:21 AM
Heat have better players than most teams but their coaching sucks. That said, they wouldn't have made it past a handful of western teams

.

Hotone1401
06-13-2014, 12:41 AM
In response to the OP, umm...DUH! The East is flat out garbage and I'm surprised most people haven't realized by now that it's this way by design. The Miami big 3 teaming up together pretty much depleted the East of any competition for the Heat and I have no doubt the 3 of them discussed this very thing as they were planning their Eastern conference take over.

Hotone1401
06-13-2014, 12:42 AM
Heat have better players than most teams but their coaching sucks. That said, they wouldn't have made it past a handful of western teams

This.

ManRam
06-13-2014, 12:42 AM
Yeah. They cake-walked to the Finals.

Not convinced the other WC teams could beat them. Maybe, maybe not. We'll never know. But the Spurs are just a brutal match up for them. Brutal. And also just a better team than everyone else.

FOXHOUND
06-13-2014, 12:43 AM
Not just this year, the first two years as well.

Edit: In regards to the east sucking, that is. Even last year, only the ECF was a challenge.

Tony_Starks
06-13-2014, 12:51 AM
Portland would've beat them. Dallas would've beat them...again. Clippers would've beat them. They may have beat Houston, Golden State, or Memphis in 7. MAYBE.

diu9leilomo
06-13-2014, 12:59 AM
The Heats are done. Another exciting off season coming, now its time for some world cup.

PowerHouse
06-13-2014, 01:03 AM
This is easily the most lop-sided NBA finals since 2007 (coincidentally the Spurs beat up on Lebron then too). The Heat are just out-maned, out-coached and out-matched.

Mr.B
06-13-2014, 02:00 AM
The Pacers implosion is also a reason.

JNA17
06-13-2014, 02:09 AM
The Pacers implosion is also a reason.

And they still went 6 games against the Heat. Can you imagine if the Pacers implosion never happened and played like they did in the regular season?

What a shame. That Pacers team against the Spurs in the finals would be way more exciting than this. :(

goingfor28
06-13-2014, 02:12 AM
And they still went 6 games against the Heat. Can you imagine if the Pacers implosion never happened and played like they did in the regular season?

What a shame. That Pacers team against the Spurs in the finals would be way more exciting than this. :(

more competitive? yes
more exciting? ehhh, watching Miami get beat down is pretty fun haha

JNA17
06-13-2014, 02:18 AM
more competitive? yes
more exciting? ehhh, watching Miami get beat down is pretty fun haha

...you have a point. :laugh2:

ewing
06-13-2014, 08:32 AM
Yes, they very well couldn't have beaten any Western Conf team on there way to the finals. They play in the East

chipurmunki
06-13-2014, 08:38 AM
miami sucks, but it's not because their competition in the playoffs is weaker. it's because they're overrated and lebron plays like a little b!tch. he can't hang with the physical forwards of the west. it's not his team that's letting him down, he's a whiny puss that's letting his team down.

bucketss
06-13-2014, 08:58 AM
Portland would've beat them. Dallas would've beat them...again. Clippers would've beat them. They may have beat Houston, Golden State, or Memphis in 7. MAYBE.

portland .. dallas,... what in the world? clippers i'll give u because of their size and scoring upfront

Asik's better
06-13-2014, 08:58 AM
They would still make it out the west. I think the weak compition didn't help them. They went into cruise mode and the spurs have caught them napping.

bucketss
06-13-2014, 09:09 AM
miami sucks, but it's not because their competition in the playoffs is weaker. it's because they're overrated and lebron plays like a little b!tch. he can't hang with the physical forwards of the west. it's not his team that's letting him down, he's a whiny puss that's letting his team down.

u mean the same physical forwards skinny durant plays with?, you're telling me the 250 pound lebron can't hang with those guys but durant can... why do you guys constantly troll instead of dropping facts?

BALLER R
06-13-2014, 10:05 AM
Yes and it's not even debatable. If Miami had to play a team like the Mavs first round, portland second round and OKC 2rd round every year they wouldn't of been to the finals as much.

Or better thing to say is they wouldn't of made it there as easily as they did. Imagine if they had to go to game 7 every round.

BALLER R
06-13-2014, 10:07 AM
I honestly believe the Grizzlies, Clippers, even Golden State could beat them in 7 games. Those are just a few teams that are match up nightmares for them.

koreancabbage
06-13-2014, 10:09 AM
Yes and it's not even debatable. If Miami had to play a team like the Mavs first round, portland second round and OKC 2rd round every year they wouldn't of been to the finals as much.

Or better thing to say is they wouldn't of made it there as easily as they did. Imagine if they had to go to game 7 every round.

it isn't debateable? lol how do you know? you say this stuff like its fact.

Its all debateable at this moment and time, until Miami does play in the West.

Miami and Spurs play the same way. In that theory, Miami would have raped Portland, Dallas, and Thunder just liked the Spurs did.

BoSox47
06-13-2014, 10:20 AM
Question, Does anyone think Philly could make the playoffs in the east next season in the Eastern Conference with MCW, Nerlens Noel, (one of embiid, parker, wiggins)?

They also have the 10th pick in the draft.

Could they beat out Atlanta or Charlotte?

BALLER R
06-13-2014, 10:23 AM
it isn't debateable? lol how do you know? you say this stuff like its fact.

Its all debateable at this moment and time, until Miami does play in the West.

Miami and Spurs play the same way. In that theory, Miami would have raped Portland, Dallas, and Thunder just liked the Spurs did.

It isn't debatable that their finals appearance is because the east is weak. That's true they had no challenge. Only competition they had was on round every year against Indy. In the west every single team is competition. If miami and the spurs played the same way this series would be a lot closer than it is.

koreancabbage
06-13-2014, 10:33 AM
No i think you're misunderstanding what is debatable and what isn't. If they played each other in the playoffs, in an earlier round, maybe they might have a chance. Spurs are a great team. Miami is a great team as well.

It's true they had no real challenge this year. But these are two of the best teams in the NBA defensively and offensively.

It wouldn't be hard to imagine Heat cleaning up Portland, OKC, and Dallas in the playoffs bc of the ball movement both the Spurs and Heat have.

Spurs have shut down Wade and Bosh every game except one game. That's why the Heat are losing. And you're right, the heat and the Spurs have not played the same way and Spurs are executing to perfection this series and that's why Spurs are winning

NYCkid12
06-13-2014, 10:33 AM
It really amazes me how so many people on this forum become a prisoner of the moment....

Sorry but if you think Miami would lose in a 7 game series to Portland,Memphis,Houston you either don't watch enough of all these teams or you just hate Miami

I think only team that could beat Miami this year is San Antonio, I think any other team out of the West loses, although I think OKC and LAC would be good matchups

NYCkid12
06-13-2014, 10:35 AM
miami sucks, but it's not because their competition in the playoffs is weaker. it's because they're overrated and lebron plays like a little b!tch. he can't hang with the physical forwards of the west. it's not his team that's letting him down, he's a whiny puss that's letting his team down.

LOL back to back NBA champions are overrated ........... do you watch basketball ?

Crackadalic
06-13-2014, 10:41 AM
Spurs were the only team I felt could beat the heat because the other west teams are not discipline enough

Thunder? Two man game will get eating alive by Miami
Houston? They don't have the players or schemes to stop lebron
Dallas? Maybe 6 games
Portland? LA takes low % mid range and it's easy to stop Lillard
Clippers has the talant to push it to 7 but again discipline on every possession in not there

Spurs are the only matchup problems for them. If they didn't come out the west Miami would be looking at adding a third ring in 4 years

RaiderLakersA's
06-13-2014, 10:56 AM
I disagree with the premise that Miami's performance up to this point reflects the poor strength of competition in the East. No, what it reflects is that Wade and Bosh have been mostly M.I.A. in MIA. As a consequence, the Heat are turning into the LeBrons Part II.

Iron24th
06-13-2014, 10:59 AM
I'd like Memphis, clippers, portland and okc's chances in a 7 games series against miami.

JC_
06-13-2014, 11:03 AM
Wtf another joke thread?

torocan
06-13-2014, 11:10 AM
To be fair, I think the Heat does okay against any other team in the West in a 7 game series except for San Antonio (which is basically built to destroy star driven teams).

However, they don't reach the finals nearly as much simply because they have to beat WAY too many of those teams too many times in a row.

Here are the roads the Heat would have had to play this year replacing West teams at various seeds this year...

#1 - Dallas, Portland, OKC
#2 - Memphis, Clippers, SAS
#3 - GSW, OKC, SAS
#4 - Portland, SAS, OKC
#5 - Houston, SAS, OKC
#6 - Clippers, OKC, SAS
#7 - OKC, Clippers, SAS
#8 - SAS, Portland, OKC

And let's not forget that the #8 seed Dallas was a 49 win team. #7 Memphis was a 50 win team. And the #4/5 seeds of Houston and Portland had 54 wins. These aren't ANY chumps in the West.

Now, how many times does Miami get to the Finals playing through that gauntlet? Now ask yourself that question over the last 4 years?

Miami might still have a chip. Maybe even 2 chips if their luck breaks right.

4 consecutive trips to the Finals? No way. No how. Not a chance.

IversonIsKrazy
06-13-2014, 05:42 PM
Granted, East is ***. But SPurs are just very very good. Imo, only a couple of other WEstern teams can go toe-to-toe with the HEat.

Clippers - Depth. Not to mention their lost-post scoring would destroy Miami.
Memphis - Again, low post scoring and big men would dominate Miami's paint.
Dallas - WOuld give Miami a hell of a run, but I think Miami would still win.

MIAMI would BEAT
Thunder - Their 2 game would be eaten alive by Miami, 2012 finals was a pure example.
Portland - No defense, no depth. LMA takes poor shots
Houston - please.
GSW - Would light it up but Miami would be able to come out of this.

Yanks All Day
06-13-2014, 06:15 PM
I'm sorry. That's just untrue. The East was weak, but Miami is still a very good basketball team. Basketball, like all sports, is all about match ups. Miami is a bad matchup for OKC and the Clippers. They'd probably still beat them in a series. The way the Spurs are playing now, NO ONE can beat them. The ball movement is too crisp. The shooters are too comfortable. Their stars are too motivated. Their coach and bench are too good.

San Antonio had the best record in basketball this year at 62 - 20. They took some time to get going in the playoffs, but then demolished (for the most part) the Blazers, Thunder, and now Heat through 3/4 games in the Finals. Maybe, just maybe, the Spurs are better than people are giving them credit for. Maybe they were the best team in the league last year, too, but just happened to lose a series against a great Heat team. Maybe they've been preparing for this series for the entire year and have been waiting for the re-match.

Yes, the Heat are worse than last year. Yes, the East is down. Yes, the West would have presented the Heat more problems. But Miami probably would have beaten all Western teams anyway, other than the Spurs. This series still isn't over, and if Miami wins it all, they truly deserve it, but we aren't giving San Antonio nearly enough credit. Miami isn't losing the series. The Spurs are taking it, and no one in the league can stop them with the way they're playing. The Heat were a good team this year and have the best player on the planet, but the Spurs have the best team in the league, and teams win championships.

Sly Guy
06-13-2014, 07:51 PM
And they still went 6 games against the Heat. Can you imagine if the Pacers implosion never happened and played like they did in the regular season?

What a shame. That Pacers team against the Spurs in the finals would be way more exciting than this. :(

don't kid yourself. the refs took a game in that series. it was really 4-1 miami

nastynice
06-13-2014, 08:11 PM
The heat are a good team, period. But at the same time, I was definitely thinking the same thing, had they been playing against western conference competition from round 1, who knows how far they would have gone. Goes for the past few years really, the western conference is an absolute dog fight from the first day of playoffs, Heat don't want none of that. Clearly benefitting from a weak eastern conference.

nastynice
06-13-2014, 08:14 PM
To be fair, I think the Heat does okay against any other team in the West in a 7 game series except for San Antonio (which is basically built to destroy star driven teams).

However, they don't reach the finals nearly as much simply because they have to beat WAY too many of those teams too many times in a row.

Here are the roads the Heat would have had to play this year replacing West teams at various seeds this year...

#1 - Dallas, Portland, OKC
#2 - Memphis, Clippers, SAS
#3 - GSW, OKC, SAS
#4 - Portland, SAS, OKC
#5 - Houston, SAS, OKC
#6 - Clippers, OKC, SAS
#7 - OKC, Clippers, SAS
#8 - SAS, Portland, OKC

And let's not forget that the #8 seed Dallas was a 49 win team. #7 Memphis was a 50 win team. And the #4/5 seeds of Houston and Portland had 54 wins. These aren't ANY chumps in the West.

Now, how many times does Miami get to the Finals playing through that gauntlet? Now ask yourself that question over the last 4 years?

Miami might still have a chip. Maybe even 2 chips if their luck breaks right.

4 consecutive trips to the Finals? No way. No how. Not a chance.



This. You can't take away how good and talented the heat are. But at the same time, so was every single playoff team in the west, mathematically, they have a much smaller chance of winning 4 seven game series' in a row if playing vs the west. MUCH smaller chance compared to the cake walk they have right now.

Bring The Heat
06-13-2014, 08:14 PM
Lol at these hating *** idiots stating stuff like it's a fact... Miami is more than capable of beating all those Western conference teams.. It just so happens that San Antonio is an excellent team and the heat's worst match up possible. I been saying it all season that the spurs are the toughest team Miami will ever have to face.

Bring The Heat
06-13-2014, 08:17 PM
I'm sorry. That's just untrue. The East was weak, but Miami is still a very good basketball team. Basketball, like all sports, is all about match ups. Miami is a bad matchup for OKC and the Clippers. They'd probably still beat them in a series. The way the Spurs are playing now, NO ONE can beat them. The ball movement is too crisp. The shooters are too comfortable. Their stars are too motivated. Their coach and bench are too good.



San Antonio had the best record in basketball this year at 62 - 20. They took some time to get going in the playoffs, but then demolished (for the most part) the Blazers, Thunder, and now Heat through 3/4 games in the Finals. Maybe, just maybe, the Spurs are better than people are giving them credit for. Maybe they were the best team in the league last year, too, but just happened to lose a series against a great Heat team. Maybe they've been preparing for this series for the entire year and have been waiting for the re-match.

Yes, the Heat are worse than last year. Yes, the East is down. Yes, the West would have presented the Heat more problems. But Miami probably would have beaten all Western teams anyway, other than the Spurs. This series still isn't over, and if Miami wins it all, they truly deserve it, but we aren't giving San Antonio nearly enough credit. Miami isn't losing the series. The Spurs are taking it, and no one in the league can stop them with the way they're playing. The Heat were a good team this year and have the best player on the planet, but the Spurs have the best team in the league, and teams win championships.


Great post... Finally somebody who speaks unbiased and actually makes sense.

nastynice
06-13-2014, 08:31 PM
It really amazes me how so many people on this forum become a prisoner of the moment....

Sorry but if you think Miami would lose in a 7 game series to Portland,Memphis,Houston you either don't watch enough of all these teams or you just hate Miami

I think only team that could beat Miami this year is San Antonio, I think any other team out of the West loses, although I think OKC and LAC would be good matchups

Yea, Miami would still be the favorite in the majority of the series vs west teams, but the thing is that just because you're the favorite doesn't mean you automatically win. You look at the 1st round of the west, the mavs coulda beat the spurs just as easily, rockets coulda beat the blazers, dubs coulda beat the clippers, griz coulda beat the thunder. Now that's not what happened, but every series coulda swung either way, so although miami would be the favorite against most, if not all, these teams, the chances of them going through 4 rounds of this level of competition year after year would dramatically reduce their chances of reaching the finals so often.

jerellh528
06-13-2014, 08:39 PM
Sooo Lebron does have enough help because Miami is a great team now? I swear you Miami fans are funny, tailoring your argument to whatever opinion you're going against that moment.

Cal827
06-13-2014, 08:44 PM
While it's true that the East sucks this year.... I still would've pick Miami over any team in the West except for the Spurs (50/50 on them before playoffs started), and with a decent chance, Clippers.

tr3ymill3r
06-13-2014, 09:00 PM
Any team that has a good PG or big men would beat the Heat as well.

Bring The Heat
06-13-2014, 09:01 PM
Sooo Lebron does have enough help because Miami is a great team now? I swear you Miami fans are funny, tailoring your argument to whatever opinion you're going against that moment.

The heat have been great team obviously we won 2 titles back to back a lot more than most fans can say on this forum about their own team.. I'll be disappointed if we lose this series but at the same time I'm thankful for what Lebron and this team has brought to our city.. He does have help obviously but not to the extent like some people say "most stacked team in history" . this series the role players haven't shown up to play and wade isn't the same wade he was before with the explosion to the rim.. He's had big games for us but at times his age shows and he had a horrible game yesterday that killed us. Spurs are a great team and their out playing us

torocan
06-13-2014, 10:01 PM
While it's true that the East sucks this year.... I still would've pick Miami over any team in the West except for the Spurs (50/50 on them before playoffs started), and with a decent chance, Clippers.

You're missing the point, it's simple math.

Let's say the Heat is the #1 seed. Now for argument's sakes lets assign some arbitrary percentages to the odds of winning each round. We'll even say that they're significant favorites for argument's sake.

Miami vs #8 Dallas - 70% (7/10 times)
Miami vs #4 Portland - 80% (8/10 times)
Miami vs #2 OKC - 70% (7/10 times)

Now project that forward using basic statistical math...

0.7 x 0.8 x 0.7 = 39.2%

Miami doesn't even get out of the West 60.8% of the time. Even if you thought that the Heat wins 80% of the time in all the series (8/10 series), that's STILL only 51.2% success rate. IE, they don't even get out of the West half the time.

And that's assuming they even have the #1 seed playing the West twice as often as the East (multiple teams at or above ~50 wins per season).

And that's without even facing the Clippers or SAS or Memphis in a series.

The fact is, no matter how you cut it that it's much, Much, MUCH harder to get out of the West simply because there's more chances for things to go wrong that will tip the series against you and knock you out. Whether that's a bad foul call, or a bad bounce, or an untimely injury, or simply because they had a couple bad shooting nights and couldn't recover.

Playing a tougher conference isn't just about who is the best team, it's also about who peaks at the right time, who's healthy at the right time, and who's hot/cold at the right time.

Playing in a weaker conference means you have MUCH more margin for error, you're also playing against easier competition meaning that your series are often shorter, you have more games with garbage time, AND you don't have to have nearly as good a record to get a great seed.

Think about this... the Heat won 54 games this season. That would TIE them for 4/5 seed with Houston and Portland. That means NO home court advantage against SAS, OKC or the Clippers. And given that they had to rest Wade for a 1/3 of the season, it means they either couldn't rest Wade nearly as much, or that they would have to expend THAT much more energy to just maintain their win record (good enough for 4/5) given that they're playing significantly better teams THAT much more often and even more energy beyond that to get a #2 seed (OKC's record was 59 wins).

The Finals does NOT exist in a vacuum. The Road to get to the Finals is just as critical as the Finals itself. And the fact is Miami has had a significant advantage every season for the last 4 seasons in that regard. That doesn't take away the legitimacy of their championships, but it does mean that it is fair to examine the impact of being in the East has had on their success.

Just some stuff to think about...

SPURSFAN1
06-13-2014, 10:03 PM
You're missing the point, it's simple math.

Let's say the Heat is the #1 seed. Now for argument's sakes lets assign some arbitrary percentages to the odds of winning each round. We'll even say that they're significant favorites for argument's sake.

Miami vs #8 Dallas - 70% (7/10 times)
Miami vs #4 Portland - 80% (8/10 times)
Miami vs #2 OKC - 70% (7/10 times)

Now project that forward using basic statistical math...

0.7 x 0.8 x 0.7 = 39.2%

Miami doesn't even get out of the West 60.8% of the time. Even if you thought that the Heat wins 80% of the time in all the series (8/10 series), that's STILL only 51.2% success rate. IE, they don't even get out of the West half the time.

And that's assuming they even have the #1 seed playing the West twice as often as the East (multiple teams at or above ~50 wins per season).

And that's without even facing the Clippers or SAS or Memphis in a series.

The fact is, no matter how you cut it that it's much, Much, MUCH harder to get out of the West simply because there's more chances for things to go wrong that will tip the series against you and knock you out. Whether that's a bad foul call, or a bad bounce, or an untimely injury, or simply because they had a couple bad shooting nights and couldn't recover.

Playing a tougher conference isn't just about who is the best team, it's also about who peaks at the right time, who's healthy at the right time, and who's hot/cold at the right time.

Playing in a weaker conference means you have MUCH more margin for error, you're also playing against easier competition meaning that your series are often shorter, you have more games with garbage time, AND you don't have to have nearly as good a record to get a great seed.

Think about this... the Heat won 54 games this season. That would TIE them for 4/5 seed with Houston and Portland. That means NO home court advantage against SAS, OKC or the Clippers. And given that they had to rest Wade for a 1/3 of the season, it means they either couldn't rest Wade nearly as much, or that they would have to expend THAT much more energy to just maintain their win record (good enough for 4/5) given that they're playing significantly better teams THAT much more often and even more energy beyond that to get a #2 seed (OKC's record was 59 wins).

The Finals does NOT exist in a vacuum. The Road to get to the Finals is just as critical as the Finals itself. And the fact is Miami has had a significant advantage every season for the last 4 seasons in that regard. That doesn't take away the legitimacy of their championships, but it does mean that it is fair to examine the impact of being in the East has had on their success.

Just some stuff to think about...

read the whole thing. :worthy: :worthy: :worthy:

Raps18-19 Champ
06-13-2014, 10:08 PM
Yuo. So that means that because this roster is "garbage", we can't hold it against Lebron since he doesn't play with a top 20 player.

Shmontaine
06-20-2014, 05:42 PM
I don't get how getting to the finals and losing to the champs is somehow better than losing to the champs a round or two earlier.

I see a lot of talk about how finals appearances have weight when discussing legacies and what not, but it's a product of luck/conference/seeding IMO.

just one example that seems to be brought up is the fact that the bulls never lost in the finals, and that's somehow not a good as getting to the finals but losing (going 6-0 is worse than going 6-1). during the MJ era/ the bulls lost to what would be the champs 3 times. can someone explain why it matters when a team loses to the champs?

Jeffy25
06-20-2014, 05:49 PM
ok

Jeffy25
06-20-2014, 05:57 PM
Heat regular season record against the 8 teams in the Western Conference that made the playoffs:

SAS - 1-1
OKC - 1-1
LAC - 2-0
HOU - 1-1
POR - 2-0
GS - 1-1
MEM - 1-1
DAL - 2-0

That's a combined 11-5 record against the top 8 teams in the West this year...I believe 19-8 vs the West overall.

I imagine this is a team that would have at least been in the Western Conference Finals....who probably lose to the Spurs there.

Everybody in the East is weak, we get it, big deal.

It's not that much of a cake walk, they just never matched up against a tough matchup for them. Everyone thought the Nets would be their biggest challenge, and it was nothing to beat them....and Indiana would have fit right in in the top 4 in the West, let's not kid ourselves. They are a great defensive and overall, great team. They and the Clippers can't be that far off head to head.

Jeffy25
06-20-2014, 06:02 PM
You're missing the point, it's simple math.

Let's say the Heat is the #1 seed. Now for argument's sakes lets assign some arbitrary percentages to the odds of winning each round. We'll even say that they're significant favorites for argument's sake.

Miami vs #8 Dallas - 70% (7/10 times)
Miami vs #4 Portland - 80% (8/10 times)
Miami vs #2 OKC - 70% (7/10 times)

Now project that forward using basic statistical math...

0.7 x 0.8 x 0.7 = 39.2%

Miami doesn't even get out of the West 60.8% of the time. Even if you thought that the Heat wins 80% of the time in all the series (8/10 series), that's STILL only 51.2% success rate. IE, they don't even get out of the West half the time.

And that's assuming they even have the #1 seed playing the West twice as often as the East (multiple teams at or above ~50 wins per season).

And that's without even facing the Clippers or SAS or Memphis in a series.

The fact is, no matter how you cut it that it's much, Much, MUCH harder to get out of the West simply because there's more chances for things to go wrong that will tip the series against you and knock you out. Whether that's a bad foul call, or a bad bounce, or an untimely injury, or simply because they had a couple bad shooting nights and couldn't recover.

Playing a tougher conference isn't just about who is the best team, it's also about who peaks at the right time, who's healthy at the right time, and who's hot/cold at the right time.

Playing in a weaker conference means you have MUCH more margin for error, you're also playing against easier competition meaning that your series are often shorter, you have more games with garbage time, AND you don't have to have nearly as good a record to get a great seed.

Think about this... the Heat won 54 games this season. That would TIE them for 4/5 seed with Houston and Portland. That means NO home court advantage against SAS, OKC or the Clippers. And given that they had to rest Wade for a 1/3 of the season, it means they either couldn't rest Wade nearly as much, or that they would have to expend THAT much more energy to just maintain their win record (good enough for 4/5) given that they're playing significantly better teams THAT much more often and even more energy beyond that to get a #2 seed (OKC's record was 59 wins).

The Finals does NOT exist in a vacuum. The Road to get to the Finals is just as critical as the Finals itself. And the fact is Miami has had a significant advantage every season for the last 4 seasons in that regard. That doesn't take away the legitimacy of their championships, but it does mean that it is fair to examine the impact of being in the East has had on their success.

Just some stuff to think about...

You are cherry picking pretty badly here.

What do you think the odds are for the Heat to beat the Nets and Pacers?

Why are you holding their 54 games to any regard? They had their top 2 seeds and rested players. If the seed mattered, I imagine they would have fought for it.

And why are they only going to beat the Mavs 7 or 8 times? They beat them pretty easily in the regular season.


Portland is going to be a serious issue for them? I can see 70-80% likely to beat them.

OKC? Sure, why not 70-80%. But I think they beat the Mavs 10 out of 10 times. Taking the medium here, that's 56% likely to make it.

LongIslandIcedZ
06-20-2014, 06:16 PM
I dont understand the idea of going off of regular season series records against these teams. It isnt just about the teams in the west being better (which they are). Its about playing 3 series vs the best teams, just to get into the finals.

All 8 teams in the west were better than Charlotte and Brooklyn. And they honestly could have been better than the Pacers as well, considering how poorly they finished the season. But for arguments sake I'll say that the Pacers could do some damage in the west.

But the point is, Miami would have to have beaten Dallas/Memphis, just to get to OKC/LAC, just to get stomped by the Spurs (I dont know if the seedings I set up were correct, but it doesnt change the underlying point). And then after all that, they would get into finals.

The west beats you up pretty bad. I dont think the Heat go to four straight finals if they're playing in the west. It's not taking anything away from Miami, you have to play the hand you're dealt. Miami was dealt a very favorable hand, and they took care of business with it.