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Chronz
06-05-2014, 02:58 AM
That seems to be the talk among analyst these days, how will Wade fare this go around now that hes got more of a bounce in his step. Last year, Wade was inconsistent and tho he came up big enough to win a 3rd championship, a troubling trend emerged with the units he was a part of.

According to Zach Lowe, Miami was -54 with Wade, +49 with him off it. Now its prolly not all his fault, but that seems like a pretty staggering figure and I dont think Im alone in noticing how San Antonio ignored him off the ball. Wade should tear that defense up this year, which should in turn open up driving lanes. Does he have it in him?

SPURSFAN1
06-05-2014, 03:30 AM
+/- is not a good measurement of a player. Using Wade less would be a benefit for Pop. You need dynamic players on the floor as much as possible. It's up to the coach to use his players correctly.

Chronz
06-05-2014, 03:36 AM
+/- is not a good measurement of a player. Using Wade less would be a benefit for Pop. You need dynamic players on the floor as much as possible. It's up to the coach to use his players correctly.

You're not understanding the question. Nobody said it was a measurement of a player, its the fact of a players lineup success. The cold hard truth is that Miami was outscored with Wade on the court and did most of their damage with him on the bench. Will that trend continue this year is the question.

Its up to the coach AND the player to maximize their talents

JC_
06-05-2014, 03:39 AM
I'm guessing he was in during those crazy SA 3pt barrages. Either way, Wade is not "game to game" like he has been in the past. So far this postseason, he's been able to play confident and loose which is something we haven't really seen consistently in the playoffs since 2012.

SPURSFAN1
06-05-2014, 03:46 AM
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?866119-Nick-Collison-has-destroyed-the-analytic-movement

now im not agreeing with OP from the nick collison thread because he says only the eye test is a good measurement of a player which I don't agree with, but the +/- measurement is pretty much bunk.

Chronz
06-05-2014, 03:50 AM
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?866119-Nick-Collison-has-destroyed-the-analytic-movement

now im not agreeing with OP from the nick collison thread because he says only the eye test is a good measurement of a player which I don't agree with, but the +/- measurement is pretty much bunk.

Whats bunk about it?

SPURSFAN1
06-05-2014, 03:56 AM
Any system that ranks nick collison and channing frye in the top 10 players list isn't a very good tool to use. I go further down into the top 40 list and it gets worse. +/- isn't more than just a gimmick stat.

Chronz
06-05-2014, 04:04 AM
Any system that ranks nick collison and channing frye in the top 10 players list isn't a very good tool to use. I go further down into the top 40 list and it gets worse. +/- isn't more than just a gimmick stat.
Im talking about simple +/- and it doesn't rank anything, rather, states the facts as they are. You can view that how you wish but Im not seeing what makes it bunk considering you dont even understand it.

tredigs
06-05-2014, 04:06 AM
It's not a "ranking", it's a conclusion of facts. Understanding their context and why the #'s say what they did is your job.

Edit: Damn you Chronz

beasted86
06-05-2014, 07:42 AM
Don't quite understand the topic.

Wade will be in the game for significant minutes, regardless of where his +/- falls at the end of each game. Spo surely doesn't make lineup and 5 man unit decisions on the fly based on +/-.

Wade and others on the team who also had a negative rating obviously made enough plays for the team to win the series.

Like what was the point of the topic? We say yes he will still be negative, so Spo should bench him? You really think that's happening?

Series is so short and data so limited, coaches can't put any sort of validity in which 5 man unit posted the best positive rating. This stat is pretty useless in any 7 game series.

amos1er
06-05-2014, 07:53 AM
He was good enough to win game four for the Heat.

Jamiecballer
06-05-2014, 08:09 AM
+- for a series isnt enough data to make a solid conclusion. Not even close.

Jamiecballer
06-05-2014, 08:16 AM
Any system that ranks nick collison and channing frye in the top 10 players list isn't a very good tool to use. I go further down into the top 40 list and it gets worse. +/- isn't more than just a gimmick stat.

And yet its an undeniable record of what happened. It would be foolish to disregard it when the same people show up year after year on it.

Chronz
06-05-2014, 09:47 AM
Don't quite understand the topic.
Its not that complicated, do you think Wade will be a part of units that advance his teams score.


Wade will be in the game for significant minutes, regardless of where his +/- falls at the end of each game. Spo surely doesn't make lineup and 5 man unit decisions on the fly based on +/-.
In a way, I think he does, I remember the announcers mentioning the team sitting Wade longer than usual and giving Bron more time without him.


Wade and others on the team who also had a negative rating obviously made enough plays for the team to win the series.
Thats the thing, I think it was pretty much just the Wade lineups that Miami struggled to outscore the Spurs with.


Like what was the point of the topic? We say yes he will still be negative, so Spo should bench him? You really think that's happening?

The point is to answer a simple question.


Series is so short and data so limited, coaches can't put any sort of validity in which 5 man unit posted the best positive rating. This stat is pretty useless in any 7 game series.
I disagree, according to Mark Cuban, +/- analysis aided some tactical shifts in some of his past series. Either way, this has nothing to do with the topic.



+- for a series isnt enough data to make a solid conclusion. Not even close.

lol at you people, nobody is making a definitive conclusion , just posing the question if history will repeat itself, thus increasing the sample size. Its a simple question, will Wade lineups actually be a net positive?

I can tell you right now, if Wade and Bron have a much better differential together, I think the Heat have a FAR easier time taking down the Spurs. But of course that still depends on how the entire team performs.


He was good enough to win game four for the Heat.

Oddly enough, it was 1 game (of 2) where he actually had a positive differential. Wade played good enough to win, so did Chris Bosh when he went scoreless in the biggest game of the year. Point?

Try answering the question, do you think Wade lineups will actually sport a positive differential, or will the Heat need to play catchup for the majority of the game and rely on him and Bron to close games out with sheer will. Because thats what happened last year, Miami usually had to make up huge ground while Wade sat and Bron dominated.

In fact, Bron's TS% jumps from 50% to 58.5, despite actually taking a bigger chunk of the offense. Its a limited sample so the team winning is all that matters, but if they win the same way this year, you guys will insist its just random, well nothing will change the fact that the Heats chances of winning is influenced by how Bron and Wade perform together.

Tony_Starks
06-05-2014, 10:46 AM
If the Heat by some chance win Wade may very well be MVP. People concentrate on overall Finals stats last year but conveniently forget from games 4-7 he was looking like Flash again, in particular game 4 when he put the team on his back with Lebron struggling.

That was on one leg, I can only imagine what he does now. You can't just lay off and give him shots, his mid-range game is still one of the best in the game.

KnicksorBust
06-05-2014, 10:59 AM
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say no.

ewing
06-05-2014, 11:14 AM
Chronz stop saying that +/- determines how good a player someone is!

j/k

ManRam
06-05-2014, 11:45 AM
I just typed up a lot of garbage and came to the conclusion that I really have no idea. His play has been better this year thus far, but it hasn't translated a ton in the +/- department. I expect the Heat starters to more or less outplay the Spurs starters, and the Spurs bench to outplay the Heat bench more or less...but considering the Spurs unconventional minutes allotment that might not translate logically to the +/- department either. It didn't appear to last year.

So I don't know. I genuinely don't have any conviction here. I guess since I think the Spurs will win the series I'd lean towards "no" again. But IDK. I do highly doubt it will be as drastic as last year, however.

But either way, he has to be contributing more than he did last year for them to repeat. Plain and simple.

Yanks All Day
06-05-2014, 12:17 PM
Game 1: -11 (loss)
Game 2: +4 (win)
Game 3: -29 (loss, Spurs hit record 16 3s, LeBron -32 in same game)
Game 4: +5 (win)
Game 5: -6 (loss, Spurs shoot 60% for entire game)
Game 6: -15 (win)
Game 7: -2 (win)

To me, that Game 3 is the huge anomaly. The Spurs crushed the Heat, and everyone's +/- went way down. In the 6 other games, he was -25. So that's roughly an average of -4 per game, and he was playing hurt the entire year. He looks different in 2014. There's a spring in his step. He's never going to be the huge star he once was, but he can certainly be a big player. That maintenance program has worked, and he's looked fine in these playoffs. I wouldn't expect him to be a negative this year, and if he shoots anything like the 54.5% he shot during the regular season (and ECF, for that matter), Miami won't have to take it to Game 7 this time.

Stinkyoutsider
06-05-2014, 12:26 PM
Think it would be easier for Wade out there if he had a very reliable long range jumper to rely on. Especially after his career so far (injuries).

But, I think he's healthier this year and he looks like he's ready to attack the Spurs D. Needs to continue to make smart plays to have a chance at a +.

archdevil84
06-05-2014, 12:39 PM
i think wade WILL have a positive +/- ratio this series and i hope he and bron can hit their outside shots because thats part of the reason why they beat the spurs last year, because they finally started hitting some outside shots

Jamiecballer
06-05-2014, 02:02 PM
Its not that complicated, do you think Wade will be a part of units that advance his teams score.


In a way, I think he does, I remember the announcers mentioning the team sitting Wade longer than usual and giving Bron more time without him.


Thats the thing, I think it was pretty much just the Wade lineups that Miami struggled to outscore the Spurs with.


The point is to answer a simple question.


I disagree, according to Mark Cuban, +/- analysis aided some tactical shifts in some of his past series. Either way, this has nothing to do with the topic.




lol at you people, nobody is making a definitive conclusion , just posing the question if history will repeat itself, thus increasing the sample size. Its a simple question, will Wade lineups actually be a net positive?

I can tell you right now, if Wade and Bron have a much better differential together, I think the Heat have a FAR easier time taking down the Spurs. But of course that still depends on how the entire team performs.



Oddly enough, it was 1 game (of 2) where he actually had a positive differential. Wade played good enough to win, so did Chris Bosh when he went scoreless in the biggest game of the year. Point?

Try answering the question, do you think Wade lineups will actually sport a positive differential, or will the Heat need to play catchup for the majority of the game and rely on him and Bron to close games out with sheer will. Because thats what happened last year, Miami usually had to make up huge ground while Wade sat and Bron dominated.

In fact, Bron's TS% jumps from 50% to 58.5, despite actually taking a bigger chunk of the offense. Its a limited sample so the team winning is all that matters, but if they win the same way this year, you guys will insist its just random, well nothing will change the fact that the Heats chances of winning is influenced by how Bron and Wade perform together.

"You people?"

It was a straight forward answer. There is little to take from a ridiculously small sample of data. Plus minus I believe has value in enormous sample sizes.

How can I answer the question of whether history repeats itself, or why would I, when I think the data is pointless?

Chronz
06-05-2014, 10:31 PM
"You people?"

It was a straight forward answer. There is little to take from a ridiculously small sample of data. Plus minus I believe has value in enormous sample sizes.

How can I answer the question of whether history repeats itself, or why would I, when I think the data is pointless?

Because the thread is asking a very specific question, if its pointless, then I suggest you ignore the thread rather than state an off topic opinion.

Jamiecballer
06-06-2014, 04:25 PM
Because the thread is asking a very specific question, if its pointless, then I suggest you ignore the thread rather than state an off topic opinion.

The response was not off-topic thanks

Bruno
06-06-2014, 05:59 PM
wade was -18 last game.

Miami will need a shake up if they lose here. Wade isn't the ideal companion for LBJ at this point in his career. its not a knock on wade, its a knock on the pairing and the line ups effectiveness when the two of them are on the floor.

Miami has the chance to disband before things go 2011 Lakers. it really doesn't make sense for James-Wade-Bosh to stay together after this year. they had a perfect four year window, they've killed it and now James has an opportunity to let some young guys do some heaving lifting and prolong his career this contract around. loyalty and the riley machine probably keeps everyone in Miami but LBJ would dominate the next five years next to a great post player and a team of shooters. this lineup structure has its limitations and will age out.

Chronz
06-07-2014, 05:42 AM
The response was not off-topic thanks
Thread asked a very specific question. You gave a response that was neither factual nor on point. So what you talking about willis?>

beasted86
06-07-2014, 07:42 AM
wade was -18 last game.

Miami will need a shake up if they lose here. Wade isn't the ideal companion for LBJ at this point in his career. its not a knock on wade, its a knock on the pairing and the line ups effectiveness when the two of them are on the floor.

Miami has the chance to disband before things go 2011 Lakers. it really doesn't make sense for James-Wade-Bosh to stay together after this year. they had a perfect four year window, they've killed it and now James has an opportunity to let some young guys do some heaving lifting and prolong his career this contract around. loyalty and the riley machine probably keeps everyone in Miami but LBJ would dominate the next five years next to a great post player and a team of shooters. this lineup structure has its limitations and will age out.

And Bosh -12, Allen -11, Cole -12, Lewis -20. I guess these guys should be benched and start Chalmers, Andersen, Battier, and maybe Haslem.

Bruno
06-07-2014, 04:57 PM
And Bosh -12, Allen -11, Cole -12, Lewis -20. I guess these guys should be benched and start Chalmers, Andersen, Battier, and maybe Haslem.

those guys would put up -30 against the Spurs, why would they do that?

.
.

Jamiecballer
06-07-2014, 06:48 PM
Thread asked a very specific question. You gave a response that was neither factual nor on point. So what you talking about willis?>

What are you smoking chronz.

Will history repeat itself? (rolls dice).
Yes apparently it will.

NBA_Starter
06-07-2014, 10:59 PM
I don't really believe in this stat anyway.

beasted86
06-08-2014, 11:17 AM
those guys would put up -30 against the Spurs, why would they do that?

.
.

If we are following +/-, might as well go full bore with this logic. Ain't no half-steppin'.

Chronz
06-08-2014, 12:42 PM
What are you smoking chronz.

Will history repeat itself? (rolls dice).
Yes apparently it will.

Much better response. I actually thought Wade played pretty good yesterday, particularly while Bron sat, but asking him to carry the team in the 4th without Bron was too much to ask.

Chronz
06-08-2014, 12:43 PM
If we are following +/-, might as well go full bore with this logic. Ain't no half-steppin'.

What logic is that? He said those players would post an even worse +/- rating, in what world is that the better result?


I don't really believe in this stat anyway.
Its not religion, these are cold hard facts. What you might not believe in is the opinion derived from these stats but thats independent of the stat itself. In that case you can believe what you want, just know that people that work within the NBA mine significant stuff out of +/- and its never a good thing to have a poor +/- relationship. In terms of strictly winning games, how you effect your teams bottom line is the most important stat a player can have, far more important than boxscore metrics, because of that, its much harder to quantify. Some would say impossible, but it would be foolish to not try.

beasted86
06-08-2014, 02:27 PM
What logic is that? He said those players would post an even worse +/- rating, in what world is that the better result?


Based off of game 1, those players I mentioned posted a higher simple +/- rating than the others, with the exception of Haslem who did not play. Do you understand this simple linear logic? Should I explain further?

Bruno
06-08-2014, 02:46 PM
Based off of game 1, those players I mentioned posted a higher simple +/- rating than the others, with the exception of Haslem who did not play. Do you understand this simple linear logic? Should I explain further?

what about last year? erroneous?

beasted86
06-08-2014, 02:53 PM
Its not religion, these are cold hard facts. What you might not believe in is the opinion derived from these stats but thats independent of the stat itself. In that case you can believe what you want, just know that people that work within the NBA mine significant stuff out of +/- and its never a good thing to have a poor +/- relationship. In terms of strictly winning games, how you effect your teams bottom line is the most important stat a player can have, far more important than boxscore metrics, because of that, its much harder to quantify. Some would say impossible, but it would be foolish to not try.

You are right these are merely a factual recording of the events, but there is a "belief" in its validity when the sample size is so small. Its the equivalent to claiming a player who shot under 40% in a singular game, is actually "a 40% shooter", regardless of the much larger sample over of the whole season or whole previous games.

Furthermore, the average team's most used 5 man unit maxes out roughly 15-20 minutes played together, which still doesn't even relate to what is the opponents 5 man unit at that same time, and how many minutes are played against each other. If there is no control variable... how can you really experiment? This really isn't scientific honestly. That's why its called simple +/-, because its really simple. For unknown reasons you are trying to extract "details" from this stat with this thread IMO.

beasted86
06-08-2014, 03:00 PM
what about last year? erroneous?

I don't really understand this question.

What do you consider a significant enough sample size? What is an adequate time length cutoff to assess the information? Is what happened in last years finals pertinent to this years? Is the regular season matchups indicative of this very same Finals matchup between these teams?

I think the question being asked in this topic is synonymous to "Will Tony Parker shoot 41% in this Finals?" The question being based off of last year's result. Its too simple a recording of data and results to try and extract what can be considered a "trend"

Chronz
06-08-2014, 11:44 PM
Anyone notice the Heat making their runs with Wade on the bench. If Wade isnt producing, hes not really influencing the game in a positive way IMO.



Based off of game 1, those players I mentioned posted a higher simple +/- rating than the others, with the exception of Haslem who did not play. Do you understand this simple linear logic? Should I explain further?
Im sorry, I didn't realize your argument was that shallow. I will never expect better of you again, especially when it comes to stats, just do me this favor and stop saying this is the logic behind +/- or that you are going "full bore" when in reality, your evaluations are completely half assed.

Chronz
06-08-2014, 11:50 PM
You are right these are merely a factual recording of the events, but there is a "belief" in its validity when the sample size is so small. Its the equivalent to claiming a player who shot under 40% in a singular game, is actually "a 40% shooter", regardless of the much larger sample over of the whole season or whole previous games.
You can always cite past history here, thats why its a discussion.



Furthermore, the average team's most used 5 man unit maxes out roughly 15-20 minutes played together, which still doesn't even relate to what is the opponents 5 man unit at that same time, and how many minutes are played against each other. If there is no control variable... how can you really experiment? This really isn't scientific honestly. That's why its called simple +/-, because its really simple. For unknown reasons you are trying to extract "details" from this stat with this thread IMO.
Because I'd rather keep it pure, THEN we discuss whatever possible variables you feel are at play. The simple truth is that the Heat have played better throughout the totality of 9 games now, with Wade on the bench and Bron working with space. In this particular matchup its becoming a trend IMO, you can disagree and think it will revert to the norm with a larger sample size, I actually hope you're right because its disturbing to watch this play out how it has.

I understand you want to brush off whatever negative critique may fall on Wade, the minuscule sample size gives you that right, all Im saying is you cant blame for people who feel they have seen differently and happen to have the objective evidence supporting their claims.

Chronz
06-08-2014, 11:57 PM
Wade is a closer for this team, he will always play in the 4th, especially if the Heat go small and can afford having a non-shooter on the floor, but I think the days of him being an undisputed must for his teams best lineup in most occasions are over.

ManRam
06-08-2014, 11:59 PM
Made a shout out to this thread in the GT.

When LeBron is off the court Wade simply can not carry them like he once could carry a team. Individual game +/- stats are always too noisy to really get too carried away with, but trends are trends and I think this is one. I'm surprised with how little serious credit Chronz got with this thread.

tredigs
06-09-2014, 12:23 AM
Well, we've only just ended game 2, but Wade's definitely proving to us that he's not the same player. I was hoping it was more of a "rest and wait for the big stage" approach that he would be able to carry on for a few years with the luxury of having 'Bron shoulder the load for them all year, but unfortunately he's just not anywhere near his peak version anymore. The +/- we're seeing is a fair enough biproduct of that; he wasn't even top ten for shooting guards in RPM this year.

FlashBolt
06-09-2014, 12:34 AM
Wade can't provide the same game changing players that LeBron can when LeBron is off the court. While I think he's played better, let's not pretend he can just shut games out. It will be very rare to see Wade put on a game four performance against Spurs like he did last year in the Finals. Definitely a much improved Wade, though. Just the fact that he can't be left alone is something I think can change the game for Miami.

ManRam
06-09-2014, 12:35 AM
Sample size, I know! But...

Two games:

LeBron: +11
Bosh: -23
Wade: -24

mightybosstone
06-09-2014, 12:45 AM
I still think Wade is due for at least "**** you" game in this series, but he's unquestionably been a major disappointment two games in. The fact that Bosh's +- is so similar is a bit surprising, because I've though Bosh has so clearly been the superior basketball player through two games.

Will this trend continue? Possibly, but I find it hard to believe that Wade will play this poorly the entire series.

FlashBolt
06-09-2014, 12:50 AM
I don't think Wade was a disappointment. I mean, obviously when James is gone the team doesn't perform the same and that's not a knock on Wade but the team just isn't the same; not just Wade. I actually think he's been playing great. He had some bad turnovers often from lazy passes but at least he's moving well unlike last year. Will he have another game 4? Unlikely. That game 4 performance by Wade will be his biggest moment from here on out, imo.

Chronz
06-09-2014, 02:02 AM
I don't think Wade was a disappointment. I mean, obviously when James is gone the team doesn't perform the same and that's not a knock on Wade but the team just isn't the same; not just Wade. I actually think he's been playing great. He had some bad turnovers often from lazy passes but at least he's moving well unlike last year. Will he have another game 4? Unlikely. That game 4 performance by Wade will be his biggest moment from here on out, imo.

Thats a great point, which is why I'd be curious to see what Brons +/- rates look like alongside Wade and otherwise.

rex.reyesiii
06-09-2014, 03:52 AM
I don't think Wade was a disappointment. I mean, obviously when James is gone the team doesn't perform the same and that's not a knock on Wade but the team just isn't the same; not just Wade. I actually think he's been playing great. He had some bad turnovers often from lazy passes but at least he's moving well unlike last year. Will he have another game 4? Unlikely. That game 4 performance by Wade will be his biggest moment from here on out, imo.

Isn't that the game 4 where Lebron padded much of his stats by the 4th Quarter because Wade's was better? Or was that the INDY game last ECF?(2013).

beasted86
06-09-2014, 07:14 AM
Sample size, I know! But...

Two games:

LeBron: +11
Bosh: -23
Wade: -24

Which goes back to what I said earlier in this thread. Bench Bosh and Wade and others all together since they are all obviously hurting the team. Why single out Wade as though he is the scientific constant in this?

beasted86
06-09-2014, 07:24 AM
Anyone notice the Heat making their runs with Wade on the bench. If Wade isnt producing, hes not really influencing the game in a positive way IMO.



Im sorry, I didn't realize your argument was that shallow. I will never expect better of you again, especially when it comes to stats, just do me this favor and stop saying this is the logic behind +/- or that you are going "full bore" when in reality, your evaluations are completely half assed.
My evaluations are half assed, because using a 2-7 game sample is definitely scientific, and coaches should definitely ignore the other 90+ games played this season against other teams. He should definitely do a reset on the trust in his rotation starting in the Finals, because that's when you want to start tinkering. My bad.

Jamiecballer
06-09-2014, 08:49 AM
My evaluations are half assed, because using a 2-7 game sample is definitely scientific, and coaches should definitely ignore the other 90+ games played this season against other teams. He should definitely do a reset on the trust in his rotation starting in the Finals, because that's when you want to start tinkering. My bad.

You make sense to me sir

Chronz
06-09-2014, 11:09 AM
My evaluations are half assed, because using a 2-7 game sample is definitely scientific, and coaches should definitely ignore the other 90+ games played this season against other teams.
But they aren't facing those other teams, just the Spurs so thats a piss poor excuse to half *** anything. And like I've already corrected you before, teams HAVE utilized these sort of numbers based on a series (reg+playoff series) worth of data. Obviously they go deeper but you wont hear them completely disregard whats currently going on. Feel free to investigate further, just stop relying on strawman arguments. Nobody is ignoring anything but you.


He should definitely do a reset on the trust in his rotation starting in the Finals, because that's when you want to start tinkering. My bad.
LOL. You could argue that Spo has already done that throughout his tenure. Even the players admit they could go from not seeing any PT to starting entirely based on matchups. When discussing matchup problems, you dont disregard any of the facts.


You make sense to me sir
Then plz help him out, explain why teams even investigate the numbers if its so unscientific?

Chronz
06-09-2014, 11:30 AM
Which goes back to what I said earlier in this thread. Bench Bosh and Wade and others all together since they are all obviously hurting the team. Why single out Wade as though he is the scientific constant in this?
Which goes back to my point of you not understanding +/-, what if hes singling out Wade precisely because he HAS been the "scientific" constant?

If we look at any other majority lineup that Bosh has been a part of these 2 series, you'll notice that the lineups that include Wade(without Bron) are the ones he struggles most with. Bosh with Bron and no Wade has actually fared better. Yes small sample and all that jazz gives you the right to downplay it, just saying he may have a point.

That doesn't mean Wade should never play, that would imply that ANYONE could take his place. I look at basketball like a long chess match, one where you suffer a loss in 1 area just so you can completely dominate at other points. Thats pretty much the idea behind a true 6thman. When Wade is out there, Bron defers, the team struggles but they stay within proximity long enough for Bron to go nova when Wade finally sits. Wade isn't hurting the team if hes helping them win, but hes definitely not a guy who compliments his best teammate when hes not producing. I cant picture Wade struggling to create so much on his own if he were still in peak form.

RaiderLakersA's
06-09-2014, 03:04 PM
I see Wade now and worry that Kobe's game will mirror his next season. I hate seeing the end of a great era of 2-guard play.

Jamiecballer
06-09-2014, 04:25 PM
Then plz help him out, explain why teams even investigate the numbers if its so unscientific?
I don't think he needs any help, I thought he provided pretty solid reasoning in the previous post.

Did I miss where anybody in the heat organization expressed concern over the numbers that you provided?

beasted86
06-09-2014, 07:42 PM
Which goes back to my point of you not understanding +/-, what if hes singling out Wade precisely because he HAS been the "scientific" constant?

If we look at any other majority lineup that Bosh has been a part of these 2 series, you'll notice that the lineups that include Wade(without Bron) are the ones he struggles most with. Bosh with Bron and no Wade has actually fared better. Yes small sample and all that jazz gives you the right to downplay it, just saying he may have a point.

That doesn't mean Wade should never play, that would imply that ANYONE could take his place. I look at basketball like a long chess match, one where you suffer a loss in 1 area just so you can completely dominate at other points. Thats pretty much the idea behind a true 6thman. When Wade is out there, Bron defers, the team struggles but they stay within proximity long enough for Bron to go nova when Wade finally sits. Wade isn't hurting the team if hes helping them win, but hes definitely not a guy who compliments his best teammate when hes not producing. I cant picture Wade struggling to create so much on his own if he were still in peak form.
You might want to recheck your data. Just based on simple +/- 2 out of the top 3 best lineups for the HEAT include Wade. Its also a trend that lineups that include Allen in lieu of Wade are better offensively, but significantly poorer defensively.

Its pretty clear no coach in their sane mind uses a sample size that small to alter rotation minutes for guys who typically get 30+ minutes a game. If you have some examples, I would love to see where a coach has done this and it has worked out. I'm not talking about role players, but main rotation guys.

Spoelstra has not previously altered the minute load of the main core series to series. Please don't make up revisionist history. The only position that is fluid in the rotation for the past 3 years has been that PF spot. Chalmers, Cole, Wade, Allen, James, Bosh, and Andersen all get a consistent minute load.

Overall I think you are trying to look further into this stat than pretty much everyone else does. To put it as simple as possible, Wade fits what Miami does, Spo and LeBron trust him, and he's a big part of the team's success despite a small sample of negative +/- games.

beasted86
06-09-2014, 07:52 PM
Then plz help him out, explain why teams even investigate the numbers if its so unscientific?

I think this mindset is a large problem in all of these discussions. The idea that any fan knows how much significance any stat has on a team's strategy, or that team's use any single stat to begin with. Teams use ALL the stats available to them, and then even still many times make decisions that defy the stats.

Jeffy25
06-09-2014, 10:26 PM
yup, Wade was a -54 last year in the Finals

Right now he is a -26 when he's on the court and a +13 when he is on the bench (through 2 games)

Jeffy25
06-09-2014, 10:32 PM
Bosh btw, is a -23 on the court, Heat are a +10 when he is off.

Lebron is a +11 on the court, and the team is a -24 when he is off the court


Battier is a +4...but that's it for plus players

Jeffy25
06-09-2014, 10:34 PM
Will Wade be willing to take a smaller deal and become more of a role player in the future to keep these guys all together and chase more chips?


Not that he sucks, but Wade and Bosh aren't really max players any more.

Yanks All Day
06-09-2014, 10:43 PM
Will Wade be willing to take a smaller deal and become more of a role player in the future to keep these guys all together and chase more chips?


Not that he sucks, but Wade and Bosh aren't really max players any more.

Completely agree with Wade, and I do think he'll take less to keep the team strong. Especially considering he now doesn't play for 1/3 of the season to keep his body healthy.

Disagree with Bosh. He's just always accepted his role as 3rd wheel. Now, he's de-facto the 2nd best player on Miami and he's consistently having great games when the Heat need him. If he were to become the 2nd option, with Wade falling back to 3rd, I'd bet Bosh averages 20 and 9 easily. He's a max level guy who will take less than the max to help this team.

Chronz
06-10-2014, 12:37 PM
You might want to recheck your data. Just based on simple +/- 2 out of the top 3 best lineups for the HEAT include Wade.
Might want to re-read what I said (The bit about lineups with and without Bron and how Bosh fits there)

But even going with your version, out of the 31 different lineups Spo has used these 2 games, 15 of them have a negative differential, Wade is a part of 13 of those 15. Of the remaining 13 lineups that have a positive differential, Wade is a part of 7 of them. Feel free to break it down by possessions used instead of any small lineup tried, Im sure the argument gets worse.


Its also a trend that lineups that include Allen in lieu of Wade are better offensively, but significantly poorer defensively.
HUH? Ray Allen is basically a part of every single positive differential lineup this series (Ill check last years later), the lineups he has struggled with the most are the same as Bosh, the lineups that include Wade but dont include Bron.


Its pretty clear no coach in their sane mind uses a sample size that small to alter rotation minutes for guys who typically get 30+ minutes a game.
Considering not too long ago you were citing that teams dont put stock into these sample sizes at all, I dont really see why I should trust your opinion on this.


If you have some examples, I would love to see where a coach has done this and it has worked out. I'm not talking about role players, but main rotation guys.
Spo did it last year, when he decided to shrink the minutes Bron spent with Wade and decided to go even smaller than usual vs the Spurs. If you dont like that example then you would have to ask guys like Cuban/Bleach, Im not sure what your qualifiers even mean. Main rotation guys still play, this is a game of margins, Im focusing on the subtle nuances coaches use to give them an edge. That means staggering lineups in ways that are different than the norm. +/- plays a role in this because it shows you how successful those lineups have been.


Spoelstra has not previously altered the minute load of the main core series to series. Please don't make up revisionist history.
You keep adding qualifiers, whats the main core consist of? If its just the Big-3 then I still disagree. Spo staggered his lineups in such a way that he gave Bron more time without Wade than he usually does (JVG brought it up during last years Finals). A clear sign of an adjustment, to make up for Wade's lack of spacing and overall injury, he also went smaller than usual against the Spurs.

Zach Lowe had this to say;

The Heat dared to go even smaller against San Antonio in last year’s Finals, swapping Miller and even Ray Allen into the Battier slot — and leaving LeBron and Bosh as the only two “big men” on the floor. Such lineups played a much larger share of Miami’s minutes in last year’s Finals than normal, and they are basically unguardable.

Miami didn’t respect Diaw’s post-up girth enough to not go super-small, with lineups like Chalmers, Allen, Wade, LeBron, and Bosh. The Spurs tried both Diaw and Splitter on Wade last season in these scenarios, a humiliation for Wade, but Wade was hobbled and creaky then.

That super small lineup he talked about was Miami's 6th most frequently used lineup during the regular season, barely totaling over 100 minutes in 82 games. It became alot more prevalent in the 2013 Finals. What Spo has done is reduce the liability of Wade's health/nonshooting by moving him up a position (the Spurs countered by treating him like he was a 6"4 bigman and playing their slow footed centers on him so they could still sag and help off him).



The only position that is fluid in the rotation for the past 3 years has been that PF spot. Chalmers, Cole, Wade, Allen, James, Bosh, and Andersen all get a consistent minute load.
Who plays that spot is sometimes dependent on Wade's play. If teams are truly shrinking the court defensively, they go small and play a shooter so that Wade can be the defacto "big" aka the guy teams will shade off of.


Overall I think you are trying to look further into this stat than pretty much everyone else does. To put it as simple as possible, Wade fits what Miami does, Spo and LeBron trust him, and he's a big part of the team's success despite a small sample of negative +/- games.
I dont agree that he fits what Miami does, hes the antithesis of space and pace, hes ball dominant and a non-shooter. When hes not active, he becomes a damn near liability. Obviously they trust him, they dont really have much of a choice, the best they can do is manage how they trust him, they certainly dont trust him with traditional lineups, thats for sure. The guys struggles are real whether you want to ignore them is up to you, you just cant fault those of us who think differently AND happen to have the objective evidence on our side (as opposed to strawman arguments about what that evidence says). And I have no doubt that I look further into this than most, most people brush things off without much thought.

To clear things up, Wade isn't a liability throughout an entire game even if he has a negative differential, thats not the same as saying the guy isn't contributing, his role is basically to have a negative differential because hes the guy they lean on when Bron isn't out there, and when Bron isn't out there, its pretty ****ing hard to score/defend. But the team has also done well in his absence with a pure shooter replacing him, the reasons are easy to see in real time, Bron simply has more space to work with without him. But when defenses tighten up in the 4th, you trust a clutch guy like Wade to find a way to make it work. Thats admirable, its just not a demonstrative performance given all the facts.



I think this mindset is a large problem in all of these discussions. The idea that any fan knows how much significance any stat has on a team's strategy, or that team's use any single stat to begin with. Teams use ALL the stats available to them, and then even still many times make decisions that defy the stats.
Cool, my only point here is that I can say with full assurance, teams dont casually dismiss these lineup differentials because they are limited to a single team series, statisticians/GM's/Owners warn of the dangers but they still investigate.

Like I've said before, Wade is a closer, but the days of him being a guy you can slot into any lineup are over. Nobody is saying he should never see the floor, that would create an imbalance that has a trinkle down effect on the roster.

beasted86
06-10-2014, 12:56 PM
To clear things up, Wade isn't a liability throughout an entire game even if he has a negative differential, thats not the same as saying the guy isn't contributing, his role is basically to have a negative differential because hes the guy they lean on when Bron isn't out there, and when Bron isn't out there, its pretty ****ing hard to score/defend. But the team has also done well in his absence with a pure shooter replacing him, the reasons are easy to see in real time, Bron simply has more space to work with without him. But when defenses tighten up in the 4th, you trust a clutch guy like Wade to find a way to make it work. Thats admirable, its just not a demonstrative performance given all the facts.

Then this thread is entirely useless discussion.

Wade is +114 total on the year. Spoesltra trusts Wade in the lineup. LeBron wants Wade out there when he is out there. I repeat, the discussion in this thread is going nowhere and pointless given these facts and the above stated. I honestly have no clue what you are looking for out of this. A kudos for finding an arbitrary stat? Well congratulations.

beasted86
06-10-2014, 01:04 PM
Like I've said before, Wade is a closer, but the days of him being a guy you can slot into any lineup are over. Nobody is saying he should never see the floor, that would create an imbalance that has a trinkle down effect on the roster.

So your stance is even though Spoesltra precisely slots Wade into every lineup, he's not a guy who should be slotted into every lineup, despite the team's success with this very same course of action. You want to find a fix to a team that isn't broken. Cool.

Jeffy25
06-10-2014, 01:26 PM
Chronz, where do you find lineup usage statistics?

Chronz
06-10-2014, 01:27 PM
Then this thread is entirely useless discussion.

Wade is +114 total on the year. Spoesltra trusts Wade in the lineup. LeBron wants Wade out there when he is out there. I repeat, the discussion in this thread is going nowhere and pointless given these facts and the above stated. I honestly have no clue what you are looking for out of this. A kudos for finding an arbitrary stat? Well congratulations.
Nothing arbitrary about it. I just put more faith in what happens on the court than the sentimental opinions you're giving. Now Im an old school thinker but I think you should trust all your teammates to do whatever is expected of them and whats expected of Wade is limited these days thats for sure. What Im looking to get out of this is exactly what you are giving, but Ima have to take your word on +114 for now.


So your stance is even though Spoesltra precisely slots Wade into every lineup, he's not a guy who should be slotted into every lineup,
I dont agree that he has. Its been obvious for the reasons I've cited above, you know, those sections of the post you've ignored.


despite the team's success with this very same course of action.
Its not the same course of action, coaches and players adjust their game plan all the time depending on external factors. I've already seen the Heat do it to combat the Spurs, they escaped with their lives but there were some marvelous adjustments made.

Also, we are talking about LINEUP success, so if by success you mean getting outscored initially and scraping by the skin of your teeth in certain games, then yea, they are successful. But not all success is treated equally, this is ALL part of the story for each champions chapter.


You want to find a fix to a team that isn't broken. Cool.
Strawman alert. Who says I want to fix anything, Im merely reporting whats ACTUALLY HAPPENING. That you get offended and extrapolate the facts to imply anything other than the truth, is a GLARING sign of your homerdom.

Sorry but your boys struggles are REAL, when hes on the court without Bron, even with a quality guy like Bosh, his squads are losing. Im giving him credit for not getting crushed tho, so thats basically been my point. What matters is the entire game, but that doesn't mean we lose sight of how that game unfolded. Wade is a champion, thats what truly matters, now that you have that out of the way, we can ALL discuss the details behind it all.

Jeffy25
06-10-2014, 01:27 PM
Then this thread is entirely useless discussion.

Wade is +114 total on the year. Spoesltra trusts Wade in the lineup. LeBron wants Wade out there when he is out there. I repeat, the discussion in this thread is going nowhere and pointless given these facts and the above stated. I honestly have no clue what you are looking for out of this. A kudos for finding an arbitrary stat? Well congratulations.

And he clearly has struggled to make the necessary adjustments against the spurs.

This spols adjusting his lineups.

Chronz
06-10-2014, 01:32 PM
Chronz, where do you find lineup usage statistics?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/lineup_finder.cgi

beasted86
06-10-2014, 01:47 PM
Nothing arbitrary about it. I just put more faith in what happens on the court than the sentimental opinions you're giving. Now Im an old school thinker but I think you should trust all your teammates to do whatever is expected of them and whats expected of Wade is limited these days thats for sure. What Im looking to get out of this is exactly what you are giving, but Ima have to take your word on +114 for now.

Okie dokie. Its actually 141.

I dont agree that he has. Its been obvious for the reasons I've cited above, you know, those sections of the post you've ignored.


Its not the same course of action, coaches and players adjust their game plan all the time depending on external factors. I've already seen the Heat do it to combat the Spurs, they escaped with their lives but there were some marvelous adjustments made.

Also, we are talking about LINEUP success, so if by success you mean getting outscored initially and scraping by the skin of your teeth in certain games, then yea, they are successful. But not all success is treated equally, this is ALL part of the story for each champions chapter.
So you're saying the HEAT would be able to blow out the Spurs with Wade sitting more? I really am not understanding what you are saying. Spoelstra is playing Wade his regular 34+ minutes per game. So what adjustments are you talking about? Adjustments he makes to what players he plays outside of Wade are intended to really adjust to Wade? Really?


Strawman alert. Who says I want to fix anything, Im merely reporting whats ACTUALLY HAPPENING. That you get offended and extrapolate the facts to imply anything other than the truth, is a GLARING sign of your homerdom.

Sorry but your boys struggles are REAL, when hes on the court without Bron, even with a quality guy like Bosh, his squads are losing. Im giving him credit for not getting crushed tho, so thats basically been my point. What matters is the entire game, but that doesn't mean we lose sight of how that game unfolded. Wade is a champion, thats what truly matters, now that you have that out of the way, we can ALL discuss the details behind it all.
The premise of your thread is because of what happened in last year's series, and now continues through two games, despite Wade being +141 through only 54 games in the regular season, and +55 in the playoffs heading into Game 1 of these Finals, that Spoelstra should ignore these stats and go off of last year's matchup +/- ratings... determine Wade is a bad fit to play against this team, and play him less. And I wrong in making this premise? What is it really you are looking to find?