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Nomar
05-24-2014, 07:56 PM
Thought I would make a thread for any ideas you think would help this team.

I'd like to see us go after Willingham. Shouldn't be too expensive and would benefit from moving to Fenway. Could revert to his mashing 2012 campaign.

-Lavigne43-
05-24-2014, 10:47 PM
Lets be honest, we should be looking at selling in a month, not buying. This team has imploded so bad that it would be a waste of resources to acquire any talent unless it impacts future seasons. Lackey and Koji should get us significant talent in return. If they can't extend Lester trade him too. It would be unacceptable if he walks and we only get a pick in return.

Station 13
05-24-2014, 10:49 PM
No, not another old player here. We've got enough. Trade Lester+Uehara, get the pieces to build around Bogaerts and Betts.

The Allen
05-25-2014, 12:04 AM
-Either lock up Lester or look into dealing him off for some good young players.
-See what is out there for Clay, if anything.
-Chat with the Marlins and see the asking price for Cishek and/or Stanton, swing deal now or in the offseason.
-Trade Lackey, Koji, Peavy, Miller for more youth.
-Splurge in Free Agency and maybe look into more trades if Stanton/Steve deal doesn't completely kill us.

My wishes basically, probably will speak more on what I want the future of this team to look like in mid July.

bagwell368
05-25-2014, 05:54 AM
At this point Clay isn't worth much/anything. He's got to get righted and have a 12-14 run of good starts - then he'd be worth something. Plus getting him off the team would help in other ways IMO. He may be ours until his deal runs out.

If we're going to deal Lackey, Koji, Peavy, Miller - the bulk of the return should be kids - COF, 1B centered (mostly RHH too) - unless they go for broke for Stanton (via 3 way/4 way type deals since Miami has no use for any of those guys).

Offer Lester a 5/$117.5M deal w/ a 6th year team option ($27.5M)/buyout ($2.5M) - or deal him for 1.5x+ what a comp pick would be if he refuses, because he's going to get more than that in the market.

AJP could be dealt if we eat a few bucks to a team that loses it's main catcher.

WMB will likely be rehabilitated thru the end of ST next year, and he'll be dealt, or made a sub at 3B/1B/DH/PH, try him at 3B again or kept on the farm for call-up. I don't think Marrero will be ready in 4/15 - so WMB could have the last shot at 3B.

SV is now obviously too injury prone to be dealt w/o eating a pile of dough

Sox should trot JBJ out to CF - but they need a RHH CF (even a meh one) just to take some pressure off. I think he's one of those guys right now that can fix this thing or that thing, but can't globally put it together - yet. So take away LHP from his plate. Also shame on the Sox for not teaching him how to bunt. Even Mantle used to lay down bunts when he was in a slump. He's not controlling his PA's at all, he looks like a guy clinging to a spar in shark infested waters after his boat went down when he's up there. His anxiety/over thinking has to be mitigated (best by success, next best by a new mental approach).

ruckus16969
05-25-2014, 11:13 AM
Sell Sell Sell. Everything we can.

I'd offer Lester 5 yrs $125. if he says no trade him

Trade Lackey, Peavy and Koji for top specs

Trade Gomes, AP, Nava, Holt for what ever

Offseason go hard after MS and try to trade for GS

Soxfan85
05-25-2014, 01:43 PM
Please get off the GS wagon. He will not come here. It will cost us our top prospects and BC will NOT do that. MM don't want anything less than XB prospect

RedSoxtober
05-25-2014, 01:50 PM
Lets be honest, we should be looking at selling in a month, not buying. This team has imploded so bad that it would be a waste of resources to acquire any talent unless it impacts future seasons. Lackey and Koji should get us significant talent in return. If they can't extend Lester trade him too. It would be unacceptable if he walks and we only get a pick in return.

I agree with the sentiment that this year is pretty much beyond salvage. A 9 (or more) game losing streak this early in the season puts you in that kind of a hole. I don't really trust TOR to hold onto 1B but other clubs at least can look forward to players returning from injury and making an impact. The Sox are deep under water with no excuses.

I'm not keen on dealing Lackey until the Sox have Lester under contract. Even then I'd like to hold onto him for 2015 to help ease the youngsters into the rotation. Peavy, Buchholz, and Doubront are all expendable IMO (I realize that the return is not as strong). AJP could have value later if/when a contender has an injury at C. Gomes probably finishes the season somewhere else, continuing his run as a character guy in the clubhouse of some playoff-bound team.

Bo Sox Fan
05-25-2014, 01:57 PM
I'm a little greedy, so if we can land both Stanton and one of Scherzer / Shields (more realistic) in the next 10 months I'm an extremely happy camper. An Andre Ethier deal wouldn't be out of the question either as this team is in desperate need of not only 1 corner outfielder going forward, but 2. A meh prospect or 2 should complete that deal if we eat the majority of the contract.


2015 ?

1. R Bogaerts SS
2. R Pedroia 2B
3. L Ortiz DH
4. R Stanton LF (8 years, $192 mil extension)
5. L Ethier RF
6. R Napoli 1B
7. S Swihart C
8. R Cecchini 3B
9. L Bradley Jr. CF

Victorino to the bench as the rotating 4th outfielder in CF/RF.

Lester (6 years, $125 mil)
Shields (5 years $112.5 mil w/a 6th year $22.5 mil club option)
Lackey
Owens
Workman/Webster/Barnes

Out in trades:

Buchholz (prospects)
Uehara (prospects)
Peavy (prospects)

Doubront (Stanton deal)
Middlebrooks (Stanton deal)
Nava (Stanton deal)
Vazquez (Stanton deal)

Mix and match the Stanton deal, Betts & De La Rosa are also available to bring in his monster bat. There is money to be spent with a slew of position players coming up to fill out the lineup.

Norieaga
05-25-2014, 04:47 PM
I think we should hover in-between rebuilding and keeping our pieces. Say we want to rebuild but then go trade for Stanton, what's the point? Would he even want to come to another rebuilding team? Here's what I'd do:

1. Trade Peavy, Koji, Lackey
Lackey has been very solid and should be worth something given his low option for next year. This team has no place for a pitcher his age if its not contending. Ditto on Peavy. Koji is one of the best relievers, he should have value. Again, he's older so we don't have as much use for him. I don't know if I'd trade all three at once, just that I'd listen on all three.

2. Trade for Stanton
Our offense is showing its holes. We also have one of the worst OF's in the majors. If a deal can be swung that doesn't involve XB, make it happen

3. Re-sign Lester (5/$110-120)
If he doesn't accept that deal, let him walk.

4. Sign Scherzer
I feel as if we need another dominant pitcher. My only problem is that Scherzer is 29 (?) already and would require a large deal. Although I'm advocating for signing him I'd DEFINITELY tread carefully. I guess I'm just in a panic mode now since we're stinking it up.

Nomar
05-25-2014, 07:42 PM
I'm drunk rn so maybe in wrong but I think may is too early to commit to selling.

This team is playing guys who they don't have to in hopes of improvement. We can make small moves that greatly effect our record. The AL East isn't out of our reach. I think we should get younger, but if we aren't "sellers", we need to keep playing guys like JBJ and get better in time. I believe that may well happen. With youth like XB and JBJ and projects like Sizemore, were the type of team that gets better in time. Buchholz can only improve and isn't getting traded with his current value being low. This team is going to improve for sure. It is too early to give up, even though were in trouble.

-Lavigne43-
05-25-2014, 10:09 PM
I'm drunk rn so maybe in wrong but I think may is too early to commit to selling.

This team is playing guys who they don't have to in hopes of improvement. We can make small moves that greatly effect our record. The AL East isn't out of our reach. I think we should get younger, but if we aren't "sellers", we need to keep playing guys like JBJ and get better in time. I believe that may well happen. With youth like XB and JBJ and projects like Sizemore, were the type of team that gets better in time. Buchholz can only improve and isn't getting traded with his current value being low. This team is going to improve for sure. It is too early to give up, even though were in trouble.

There's no game changing moves that can be made in May. This team is in the midst of their worst stretch in 20 years. How many teams in the history of baseball have made the playoffs with a double digit losing streak? Our only chance this season is if everyone clicks and the team goes on a rampage, playing .700+ ball.

If the team doesn't play great over the next month it would be a bad decision not to sell. Lackey has to go, he's a major trade chip. I'm not worried about losing out on his age 36 season. Trading Lackey, Koji, and others also gives us more ammunition to trade for Stanton or other top level players. The only thing with Stanton is I don't think the Marlins are going to trade him until after '15, I believe that's when he has one year left in arb. I think they are planning on '15 being their year to win.

This team is going to go through a big roster transition in the coming years regardless. Since we are not competitive trade everyone with a short term contract whose value is high enough.

homie564
05-26-2014, 10:53 AM
Will Drew be eligible to be moved at the deadline? If so we should just try to sell a bunch of our better pieces, Napoli, Drew, Uehara, Lackey, Peavy, Gomes, etc. Then we try to make a move Stanton in the off season, which I think will be very doable. Re-sign Lester, and sign a key starter. Give guys like Owens, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, etc, some extra starts this year and see if one of them sticks already for the roatation next year. Then hopefully if Ortiz is still effective next year, have a great shot at another title with a core of the lineup at XB, Victorino, Papi, Stanton

WOwolfOL
05-26-2014, 05:34 PM
Do you guys think JBJ might get traded? Can you explain to me why he's struggled so much? This is a guy who conquered every level seamlessly and maintained great bbk. His Ks have spiked enormously in the Majors, though. Why is that? Obviously it's a scouting thing; the book is out on him. But specifically what pitches give him the most trouble? I still see him as a huge breakout candidate and should be a 350+ wOBA perennially.

Bos_Sports4Life
05-26-2014, 05:37 PM
Will Drew be eligible to be moved at the deadline? If so we should just try to sell a bunch of our better pieces, Napoli, Drew, Uehara, Lackey, Peavy, Gomes, etc. Then we try to make a move Stanton in the off season, which I think will be very doable. Re-sign Lester, and sign a key starter. Give guys like Owens, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, etc, some extra starts this year and see if one of them sticks already for the roatation next year. Then hopefully if Ortiz is still effective next year, have a great shot at another title with a core of the lineup at XB, Victorino, Papi, Stanton

i agree with the plan outside of 2 things..

* trading some of the older guys is a solid plan, but i'd be a little hesitant in trading napoli..wouldn't leave much power in the lineup for next season outside of ortiz who will be 39. Unless of course another transition yr is in your plans...Which is possible with the amount of youth coming up.

* Owens is still a little ways away from bringing up to the major league level, His control is just wayy to inconsistant. He still needs starts in pawtucket.

bagwell368
05-26-2014, 09:58 PM
Do you guys think JBJ might get traded? Can you explain to me why he's struggled so much? This is a guy who conquered every level seamlessly and maintained great bbk. His Ks have spiked enormously in the Majors, though. Why is that? Obviously it's a scouting thing; the book is out on him. But specifically what pitches give him the most trouble? I still see him as a huge breakout candidate and should be a 350+ wOBA perennially.

1. The pitchers in the Minors do not possess great breaking balls (at best sporadically), so he hasn't seen the best until he came up.

3. Pitch sequence. The catchers and pitchers and Coaches don't have to base everything off the fastball. He's so confused that pitchers don't have to really throw strikes to get him to take hacks.

3. Pressure - internal and external. He's thinking too much and not just playing. Lots of big time specs have failed to make the jump.

They should have gotten a real RHH CF and platooned him. Takes pressure off, gives him less to worry about.

He might be a breakout candidate but he could also end up as a D back-up.

RedSoxtober
05-27-2014, 10:03 AM
IMO too many of you are posting without any context whatsoever. Forgive me for repeating some of what I said in another thread but it bears repeating in this thread focused on trades. Theo's last testament to the Sox is this day of reckoning for the rotation: almost the entire pitching staff is on deals that expire this year.

Deal Lackey? Your 2015 rotation begins with Buchholz and Doubront as the vets. Do you trust either of them to help the kids acclimate to MLB? IMO neither of them have done it themselves. The rest of your rotation is penciled in from Workman, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, and possibly Owens. That's a lot of potential but also a huge likelihood of growing pains that will make this season easy to swallow by comparison.

And don't forget the BP. As it stands only Tazawa and probably Breslow (option) return next year. RDLR seems likely to land here but thrusting him into high leverage situations might not be the best way to bring him into the show.

Gomes and Sizemore will leave the least productive OF in MLB so 2015 looks like a combination of 4th OFers with Nava in LF, JBJr in CF, and oft-injured Victorino in RF. Of course you'd LIKE to deal for Stanton but even his prodigious bat only brings the total OF to mediocrity (and I'm not confident in him as an OF long term).

Then there's also the left side of the infield. Do you want another growth year from XB/WMB? Do you commit to the other future left side of Cecchini and Bogaerts or does Garin's lack of power lead you to XB/Marrero? Or do you attempt to solve two problems -- but add more growing pains -- by mixing some combination of Bogaerts, Cecchini, and Marrero in SS/3B/LF?

Far too many of these trade suggestions are attempting to deal individuals with value in complete isolation from the makeup of the team. Try to consider the whole picture before suggesting a deal. If you still want to deal one of the most consistent SP on the staff, and the only one under contract for 2015, that's fine but at least acknowledge the impact on next year's rotation when you do.

So yeah, I'll deal Lackey, AFTER the Sox re-sign Lester. Deal Lackey before then and you've given Jon's camp unnecessary leverage in the contract negotiations... as well as giving it to any FA pitcher you pursue during the offseason. That's a bad, bad business decision even if you think you're getting the last piece for a Stanton deal "for free".

Station 13
05-27-2014, 11:17 AM
What does anyone think of Shields as a FA acquisition? He's been very good for a while now. We add another 200 inning arm.

If he is 5/90-100M, I'd take that over 6/120M for Lester.

RedSoxtober
05-27-2014, 11:58 AM
IDK. Shields is also two years older than Lester (12/20/81 vs 1/7/84). I could deal with the Sox signing both and dealing Lackey. The achilles' heel of a Shields deal would be forfeiting their top pick next year.

BGeer091
05-27-2014, 12:04 PM
The lack of power in our system sucks... However I honestly trust Cherrington. I think this season will be a long frustrating season but! It will be a stepping stone in some winning baseball for years.

-Lavigne43-
05-27-2014, 01:39 PM
There are lots of pitchers available in the offseason that we can get to replace Lackey. Top 10 picks are protected, so we would be losing a 2nd if things keep up, unless we fail to sign/trade Lester. If we don't keep Lester we probably won't have a chance next year unless we acquire a multitude of other pitchers. Next year doesn't hinge on Lackey, and he's such a good trade chip right now that we would regret not trading him. Anyways, with Lackey and Peavy out of the rotation we can get a real long look at Webster/Workman/RDLR and see if we are comfortable with any of them in the rotation next year.

Koji is going to be 40, these are all future holes we were going to have to address even if we were winning. I don't like X being shoehorned into the growing pain thing. People like to do that because it makes the whole left side of the infield sound like a huge issue, when it's only 3b, and only one player WMB. X had one small slump common to every major leaguer, people used it to write articles shoehorning him in with WMB and JBjr. X is the best position player on the roster so far this season. I would hope they would move on from WMB after this season.

The #1 priority of the front office should be resolving the Lester situation. Either sign him or trade him. Don't do nothing and have him leave with us only getting a draft pick, that we would likely lose signing a FA pitcher. No excuse for inaction.

j-bay
05-27-2014, 06:48 PM
Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo · 8h
Red Sox exploring outfield trade market, particularly possible help in CF to take heat off Bradley http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/05/27/red-sox-exploring-outfield-trade-market/ …

Got any idea of who we could be looking at?

Wojo
05-27-2014, 09:15 PM
Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo · 8h
Red Sox exploring outfield trade market, particularly possible help in CF to take heat off Bradley http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/05/27/red-sox-exploring-outfield-trade-market/ …

Got any idea of who we could be looking at?
Give you Gardner and Phelps for Lester and JBJ....

win red sox
05-27-2014, 09:57 PM
Carlos Santana could be an interesting acquisition. He's having a miserable year driven by a .177 babip, but he's still walking at a 20% clip and has a career .364 obp. He could also allow the sox to resign Ross who could catch Lester and mentor Vasquez. So maybe Santana could catch around 30 games, 3b around 30 games, and 1b 30 games. Heck you could probably put him in LF at fenway for a few games. Don't know what it would take to acquire him from Cleveland, but it shouldn't take that much.

The Allen
05-28-2014, 01:31 AM
After watching them in person and seeing their stats, would like Maybin and Street to come on over if possible.

RedSoxtober
05-28-2014, 10:20 AM
The #1 priority of the front office should be resolving the Lester situation. Either sign him or trade him. Don't do nothing and have him leave with us only getting a draft pick, that we would likely lose signing a FA pitcher. No excuse for inaction.

This is basically what I was saying above. You don't want to lose both Lester and Lackey so you concentrate on returning Lester and THEN deal Lackey.

Pittz
05-28-2014, 10:48 AM
I would love to acquire Carlos Santana, but I imagine he'll be more expensive than you think.

RedSoxtober
05-28-2014, 11:16 AM
^^ +1

cocossox
05-28-2014, 06:35 PM
any intrest in Matt Kemp? I like him better than Ethier imo.

The Allen
05-28-2014, 07:10 PM
any intrest in Matt Kemp? I like him better than Ethier imo.

I like Maybin more than both, cheaper in contract and prospects. Gives us back a lead-off hitter and some pretty solid speed out in center. If we need a boomstick bat then really just pony up for Stanton, I don't see the need in adding Kemp or Eithier.

Nomar
05-28-2014, 07:29 PM
I like Maybin more than both, cheaper in contract and prospects. Gives us back a lead-off hitter and some pretty solid speed out in center. If we need a boomstick bat then really just pony up for Stanton, I don't see the need in adding Kemp or Eithier.

Maybin would be solid, especially if it ever just clicked for him because he was a stud in his younger days on both sides of the ball.

I think Santana's price would still be high. He was rumored in a trade for Price last offseason. Though he's struggling mightily, I don't think his trade value is that low.

Bo Sox Fan
05-28-2014, 10:25 PM
The possibility of having Lester, Shields and Lackey atop the rotation would be freeking outstanding. That's pretty much 600+ guaranteed innings ate, the majority of them quality and it ain't like we can't afford it.

Buchholz HAS to go if we can make this happen, even if it's for a C+... B- prospect or two.

bagwell368
05-28-2014, 10:28 PM
The possibility of having Lester, Shields and Lackey atop the rotation would be freeking outstanding. That's pretty much 600+ guaranteed innings ate, the majority of them quality and it ain't like we can't afford it.

Buchholz HAS to go if we can make this happen, even if it's for a C+... B- prospect or two.

We'll have to eat most of Buchholz's remaining money. There is no sense in that. He's staying for now.

The Allen
05-28-2014, 11:11 PM
We'll have to eat most of Buchholz's remaining money. There is no sense in that. He's staying for now.

Maybe him becoming the 4-5 SP would take some stress off him as well? Maybe him being the number 2 here in Boston is straining his thought process. Nobody really knows what's wrong with him, so maybe this might be it.

ciaban
05-29-2014, 01:04 AM
I think we should hover in-between rebuilding and keeping our pieces. Say we want to rebuild but then go trade for Stanton, what's the point? Would he even want to come to another rebuilding team? Here's what I'd do:

1. Trade Peavy, Koji, Lackey
Lackey has been very solid and should be worth something given his low option for next year. This team has no place for a pitcher his age if its not contending. Ditto on Peavy. Koji is one of the best relievers, he should have value. Again, he's older so we don't have as much use for him. I don't know if I'd trade all three at once, just that I'd listen on all three.

2. Trade for Stanton
Our offense is showing its holes. We also have one of the worst OF's in the majors. If a deal can be swung that doesn't involve XB, make it happen

3. Re-sign Lester (5/$110-120)
If he doesn't accept that deal, let him walk.

4. Sign Scherzer
I feel as if we need another dominant pitcher. My only problem is that Scherzer is 29 (?) already and would require a large deal. Although I'm advocating for signing him I'd DEFINITELY tread carefully. I guess I'm just in a panic mode now since we're stinking it up.

you don't have the money for Lester, but you want to spend significantly more on Scherzer.

bagwell368
05-29-2014, 06:25 AM
Maybe him becoming the 4-5 SP would take some stress off him as well? Maybe him being the number 2 here in Boston is straining his thought process. Nobody really knows what's wrong with him, so maybe this might be it.

Physically he's got a lot of fast twitch muscles which is why he can run fast and pitch fast, but, his build/strength is low for a MLB. He needs as I've maintained for about 5 years to put a minimum of 12 lbs of muscle into the right places on his body to avoid breadkdown.

Mentally he's slow to come off of injuries, slow to right the ship when it lists, he seems good when he's on a roll, but, falls off too easily and has trouble finding his way back.

If Buchholz didn't have rare talent, the other stuff wouldn't be tolerated.

As for his place in the rotation he started off the year as the #5. I don't really care what his label is, and I don't think that's an issue.

The Sox and him should have been watching film of himself when he's right for some time now, he needs a personal work out plan and he needs to follow it. He needs a shrink - he's in denial, he's a major excuse maker. Stop answering the critics and get yourself on a sustainable path.

He's got to be worth something to the Sox before he's worth anything to anyone else.

RedSoxtober
05-29-2014, 10:03 AM
any intrest in Matt Kemp? I like him better than Ethier imo.
Kemp didn't get a regular turn in the LAD OF until Crawford got hurt... so, no. He was great for a while but that peak seems to be long gone. I'm not interested in any of the Dodgers OF except possibly Pederson (who obviously isn't going anywhere).


We'll have to eat most of Buchholz's remaining money. There is no sense in that. He's staying for now.
FWIW, his remaining guaranteed money is $12M/2015 and that's it.



The Sox and him should have been watching film of himself when he's right for some time now, he needs a personal work out plan and he needs to follow it. He needs a shrink - he's in denial, he's a major excuse maker. Stop answering the critics and get yourself on a sustainable path.

He's got to be worth something to the Sox before he's worth anything to anyone else.

Agree with all this. There have been several stories about Farrell and Nieves watching film and identifying things they see out of whack juxtaposing Buchholz saying he's fine physically and just getting unlucky. "Denial" -- completely accurate.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 03:56 PM
I dont see how acquiring an older player, that isnt hitting right now, is supposed to help the Sox. Ben had better darned well end up acquiring someone better than Willingham, sorry.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 03:58 PM
Splurge in Free Agency? Have you followed teh Red Sox since Ben has taken over? They dont splurge on Free Agency and most likely wont going forward. I dont like this mentality but that is what they have become.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 04:02 PM
I think all you people that think the Red Sox will spend to bring Scherzer in either arent paying attention to the new Sox policy or are smoking some hard stuff. Ben has not and will not sign players to long term, big money contracts. Sorry

cocossox
05-29-2014, 05:31 PM
Boston Gets: OF Alex Rios

Texas Gets: C Ryan Lavarnway, RHP Anthony Ranaudo and a player to be named later

and

3B Will Middlebrooks, Alan Webster & PTBNL

Sox Get

James Shields

what do u guys think???

willyssox
05-29-2014, 05:45 PM
Boston Gets: OF Alex Rios

Texas Gets: C Ryan Lavarnway, RHP Anthony Ranaudo and a player to be named later

and

3B Will Middlebrooks, Alan Webster & PTBNL

Sox Get

James Shields

what do u guys think???


No to Shields, yes to Rios but not sure sure Ben would bite. If you're gonna go after a Starter (and they should) it has to be Samardzija.

cocossox
05-29-2014, 05:47 PM
I hate NL Pitchers moving to the AL.

Nomar
05-29-2014, 06:17 PM
Samardzija is a glorified 3. Whatever team gets him is going to lose the trade.

Coco, that's not enough for Shields. And even if we did trade for him, we'd have to fork over big money to Lester and him this offseason, which I doubt we'd be looking to do.

Shields is 32, I'd much rather see us give big money to a guy like Sherzer who's 29, and I'm still not sold on that either.

Rios' average is going to significantly dip, but his HR/FB is lower than his career average, so his power production should increase. He wouldn't be a bad addition, but I'm not sure about whether he'd be worth the price tag. Plus I want to see us ride Bradley in the OF. Our chances this year... not great. Why waste resources and money on people when we're going to have to find PAs for JBJ to develop anyway? If we're sellers in 2014, so be it. We still have a foundation. People want to be a young team. What happens when you're young? Growing pains.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 06:21 PM
Regardless of where he would be labled in the AL the Sox could use someone better than Peavy, Doubront, Buchholz. So whether he's a #3 or not is debatable, what isnt debatable is the fact they could use Jeff, especially if it means getting rid of 1 of the pitchers in the bottom 3rd of their rotation.

Bo Sox Fan
05-29-2014, 06:28 PM
The only way Scherzer comes to Boston is if we actually lose Lester in free agency and even then it will be a massive stretch. I think he will command a Grienke type deal and actually get it, or come very close to it.

Shields on the other hand can be had, even with a Lester extension. A proven horse in the AL East for say 5 years, why not? Buchholz, to me anyhow, is finished after 2015. Just another Rich Harden, Kerry Wood type who is terribly unreliable for a top of the rotation arm.

Nomar
05-29-2014, 06:36 PM
Regardless of where he would be labled in the AL the Sox could use someone better than Peavy, Doubront, Buchholz. So whether he's a #3 or not is debatable, what isnt debatable is the fact they could use Jeff, especially if it means getting rid of 1 of the pitchers in the bottom 3rd of their rotation.

At what price? Cecchini? Likely scenario they start with someone like him. I'm not giving that up for Shark. Or Betts, Owens, Swihart, hell I wouldn't even give up Margot/Devers/Rijo for him. Samardzija is a 29 year old who's peaked at a 3.0 fWAR season. Pass at the price the Cubs will inevitably ask for and likely get from some stupid GM.


The only way Scherzer comes to Boston is if we actually lose Lester in free agency and even then it will be a massive stretch. I think he will command a Grienke type deal and actually get it, or come very close to it.

Shields on the other hand can be had, even with a Lester extension. A proven horse in the AL East for say 5 years, why not? Buchholz, to me anyhow, is finished after 2015. Just another Rich Harden, Kerry Wood type who is terribly unreliable for a top of the rotation arm.

Agreed that we won't extend/sign both, but once again we're ignoring the fact that the price in trade for Shields will likely be too high for our liking.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 07:03 PM
I dont believe I said what Id give in return and we have no way of knowing what it would cost, thats up to Ben to figure that out. Im simply saying the ONLY SP I would want is Jeff S-
As for who Jeff is as a pitcher, he is only in his second year of pitching as a Starter and has finally found success at it. His previous stats mean very little as he was a Reliever.

Nomar
05-29-2014, 07:08 PM
I dont believe I said what Id give in return and we have no way of knowing what it would cost, thats up to Ben to figure that out. Im simply saying the ONLY SP I would want is Jeff S-
As for who Jeff is as a pitcher, he is only in his second year of pitching as a Starter and has finally found success at it. His previous stats mean very little as he was a Reliever.

It's his 3rd year as a starter, we have a way of ball-parking his trade value, and how would he be the only starter you want? To me that seems a little weird, although you're entitled to your opinion obviously.

Bo Sox Fan
05-29-2014, 07:17 PM
Agreed that we won't extend/sign both, but once again we're ignoring the fact that the price in trade for Shields will likely be too high for our liking.

I meant signing Shields in the offseason as a free agent, not trading for him this season. Sorry for the mix up.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 07:40 PM
I dont care for any of the other SP's that may or may not be available. What I meant is he only has 2 years of starting experience, this year just began. When you convert from a reliever to a Starter very few have great success within their first year or two.

RedSoxtober
05-29-2014, 08:10 PM
I think all you people that think the Red Sox will spend to bring Scherzer in either arent paying attention to the new Sox policy or are smoking some hard stuff. Ben has not and will not sign players to long term, big money contracts. Sorry
Dial back the rhetoric willysox. Many of the posters have probably been debating transactions like this on this forum for as long or longer than you have. Make the point for sure but make it without attacking others.


Boston Gets: OF Alex Rios

Texas Gets: C Ryan Lavarnway, RHP Anthony Ranaudo and a player to be named later
No way I'm giving up one of our bigger pitching prospects for Rios. That's too much of a short-term fix IMO. Lavarnway is probably expendable in a deal like this.


3B Will Middlebrooks, Alan Webster & PTBNL

Sox Get

James Shields

what do u guys think???
I'm not as convinced that this is an underpayment for Shields. A lot will depend on what the Royals THINK they're doing this year. Regardless, I don't think that Shields puts them over the top and, with Webster's revamped mechanics, I'm not sure I want to lose him for a rental who cannot impact more than 20 or so games.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 08:12 PM
I didnt attack anyone. Using the "You must be smoking something" has been used for years, grow a thicker skin.

RedSoxtober
05-29-2014, 08:27 PM
It's his 3rd year as a starter, we have a way of ball-parking his trade value, and how would he be the only starter you want? To me that seems a little weird, although you're entitled to your opinion obviously.

Building on this, I think willysox has the success ratio backwards. Typically it's bad starters who get pushed to the BP and then suddenly find success (mostly because they can be RPs with a one or two pitch arsenal and gain from a rise in velocity with only one inning or so of work). If he's a so-so RP then it says something about his projectability as a SP.

Also as I said elsewhere, his success this year is questionable IMO. He's getting by principally on an enormous drop in both h/9 and hr/9 (the latter to a rate WELL below MLB-norms). I suspect that both numbers are unsustainable for him in the NL let alone the AL East. The big drop that may be real -- and worrisome -- is the decrease in k/9. It's been regressing so I'm not surprised that it's down but I suspect that it's going to be a problem for HIS game.

Maybe some of S-- success is his opponents. Here are the teams he's faced so far along with their MLB rank in runs scored. Several of these early-season foes are 10-20% below league average in scoring. Perhaps it's not a surprise that he's given up the most runs in two of his last three starts -- he's finally facing teams in the top-half of the league in terms of runs scored. PIT (26), PHI (24), STL (20), CIN-2 (28), ARI (15), CHW (4), ATL (29), MIL (13), NYY (12), SFG (9).

win red sox
05-29-2014, 08:29 PM
I can see the sox going after Shields in off season regardless if they resign Lester. I would say it's more likely if they have a protected pick.

willyssox
05-29-2014, 08:37 PM
Nope, I stand by what I said, it takes time to improve after switching positions.

BoSox47
05-30-2014, 10:13 AM
We should NOT sign scherzer. I realize his talent, but did you see the contract he turned down from Detroit? You could get a few guys with that money that could impact the team in different ways.

RedSoxtober
05-30-2014, 03:00 PM
Nope, I stand by what I said, it takes time to improve after switching positions.

Sorry, going from relief pitcher to starting pitcher does NOT qualify as "switching positions." Not even remotely.

There are basically two common approaches to introducing pitching to MLB. One is to groom guys as RP or SP in the minors and bring them up into that role in MLB. If you're groomed as an SP and flame out in MLB then you move to the BP. The other approach (like the Rangers and sometimes the Sox) is to give guys their introduction to MLB through the BP regardless of their projection. Taste the atmosphere and strongly manage their MLB experience just to get used to it. Then transition to the SP role if that's your target.

Theo is a BIG advocate of the latter approach so it's not a surprise that S--- moved from RP to SP. However, another big advocate (Daniels in TEX) has watched a ton of guys make the transition from RP to SP without any of the "adjustment" that you insist must be there -- Ogando, Lewis, and Wilson come to mind.

S--- is having a career year so far. Great for him. Buy 1.5yrs of his service at enormous risk if you like but I strongly suspect that a pitcher who's having his first good season as a SP at age 29 with uncharacteristic and unsustainable peripherals is going to be the new... Devern Hernsack.

willyssox
05-30-2014, 03:14 PM
In your scenario all pitchers are to be treated the same, this just isnt the case and the Red Sox have a poor history of turning relievers into starters and in some cases vs versa. If Texas or whoever has had success converting a RP into a SP then good for them but it isnt the norm as you seem to suggest. The Tigers are a team that have pushed relievers into starting and the reverse (Smyly, Porcello...)with varied success.
As for Jeff's age, not every player makes an impact at an early age and there is a history for both.
The fact of the matter is... Jeff is pitching very very well right now, will it continue? Who knows, neither of us have a crystal ball but if the Sox were to go after a SP at or before the deadline Id rather take my chances with a SP that has the lowest ERA in baseball than someone that has a 3 1/2 or more ERA, from either league. Like Ive said before, it would be up to Ben and his scouting staff to determine if Jeff's numbers are inflated in his favor and that he isnt the answer and that someone else would perform better in a Sox jersey. For me, I like Jeff, love his numbers and dont worry about his age or how long he's had success.

willyssox
05-30-2014, 05:44 PM
Also, when the Cubs drafted Jeff he wasnt a full-time pitcher as he was a 2 sports star. So he was very raw and scouts even mentioned this but the Cubs chose to draft him because of his upside and they felt as though they could build him into a good pitcher whther it be as a Starter or a Reliever. He had some mechanical bad habits (according to scouts) that theyve tried to break him of and for the most part have but occasionally he falls back into those habits.
Here is a copy of 1 of the scouting reports from when he was drafted>

Scouting Report on Jeff Samardzija, 5th Round Pick
Jeff Samardzija


Junior RHP
Notre Dame
Drafted: 149th Overall (5th round)
Ht: 6’5
Wt: 215 lbs
Birthdate: 1/25/85

Samardzija was one of the top twenty talents in the draft, and he’s regarded as one of the hardest players in the draft to sign. Not due to money like so many other top talents, but due to his commitment to play his senior year as wide receiver for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. And if playing football wasn’t bad enough, he’s considered one of the top wide receivers in the country and likely a pick in the first two rounds of the 2007 NFL Draft. With QB Brady Quinn returning, there is a good chance that Samardzija puts up similiar if not better numbers than last year. Where he was an all-American and set school records with 77 receptions and 15 touchdown catches along with the third most receiving yards in team history with 1,249 receiving yards. Earning him a top three finalist for the Biletnikoff Award which goes to the nation's top college receiver.

Not only did the football vibe scare many teams away but the fact that he has a good chance of being drafted early in the NFL draft, and he wants to be a two sport athlete. Personally I commend Sam as he’s affectionately known as around campus, for his desire to keep his commitment to his football coaches and fellow teammates. But I’m just as worried as the next guy that he’ll get injured legging out a deep route from Quinn. Apparently, Chicago is confident enough that they can sign Sam to a back-loaded five year deal to try to entice him into a MLB career while letting him pursue his NFL dreams.


In 2004, his Freshman year: In 20 games, 6 being starts, he was 5-3 with a save, going 64 IP, giving up 50 hits, 21 earned runs, 5 hrs, 17 bb, 42 k, 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .209 BAA. His ERA and BAA was good enough to be second in all of the Big East. Also during the year, he had a 22 IP scoreless streak, the second longest in Notre Dame history.

In 2005, his Sophomore year: In 15 games, 10 being starts, he's 8-1, going 78 2/3 IP, giving up 85 hits, 34 earned runs, 3 hrs, 30 bb, 56 k, 3.89 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .272 BAA. He led the staff in wins and strikeouts, while ranking fourth in the Big East in Wins.

In 2006, his Junior year: In 15 starts, he was 8-2, going 97.2 IP, giving up 101 hits, 47 earned runs, 3 hrs, 37 bb, 61 k, 4.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .272 BAA. In his last three starts he really started to turn it on, going at least 8 innings in all three starts, in that stretch he went 24 1/3 IP, giving up 21 hits, 9 earned runs, 2 hrs, 3 bb, 16 k.

Pitching: Sam is still raw in terms of his pitching style and selection. Considering that he’s never been a full-time pitcher in his life, yet the abilities are there, he’s solid talent. His fastball is of the sinking nature, which the Cubs have been high in drafting the last few years. This year his fastball was consistently hitting 91-94 mph with his max at 99 mph, which is stark improvement over his 89-92 mph fastball the season prior. In the Big East tournament, scouts clocked Jeff at 99 miles per hour twice, 98 three times, 97 six times and 96 eleven times. Also this past year, he ditched his weak curveball and mild splitter and instead went with a hard strong slider (81-84 mph) and added a changeup. Those additions immediately made him a better pitcher even if his line didn’t show it. He doesn’t have much control or command of his arsenal but he also doesn’t spend much of his free time working on baseball as most college pitchers do, so the Cubs feel they if they can get their hands on him they can make him a prime baseball talent.

RedSoxtober
05-30-2014, 07:45 PM
In your scenario all pitchers are to be treated the same, this just isnt the case and the Red Sox have a poor history of turning relievers into starters and in some cases vs versa. If Texas or whoever has had success converting a RP into a SP then good for them but it isnt the norm as you seem to suggest. The Tigers are a team that have pushed relievers into starting and the reverse (Smyly, Porcello...)with varied success.
The number of assertions you make here is pretty high. And you're wrong on most of them. In "my scenario" it is NOT true that every pitcher is the same. What is true is that there are organizational philosophies that guide both development and introduction into MLB. These are long running trends that are very strongly consistent. I would assume that you would appreciate that given your earlier comments about the tendencies of Cherrington's FO that are so obvious to anyone paying attention; these trends are just as obvious and, oftentimes, explicitly stated.

The poor SP turned RP is so common that it's cliche. Why do bad LHP stay in MLB so long? Because EVERYONE needs a LOOGY. By and large guys that trend to RP in the minors never see the light of day in MLB. Why? Because they don't have enough stuff to succeed in MiLB as a SP... and you can get to AA with little more than fastball location and the chance of a secondary pitch.

I'd challenge your history on the Tigers' success with the process. Smyly was a SP and projects there long term. Why did he get bumped from the rotation? Anibal Sanchez. It's also worth noting that he was a good starter and a DOMINANT reliever -- just as I suggested earlier. Middling to poor RP don't make the transition into good SP because they are typically struggling to get by with one decent pitch; expanding the role requires a larger arsenal than they've got.

Porcello? That's just a bald faced lie. He's got 162 appearances in MLB and 159 as a starter. He went to the BP at the end of last year when they were trying to get something out of him for the playoffs. If anything Porcello represents the opposite of your argument -- he came up as a SP and was good enough that they REFUSED to put him in the BP even when he could have used it because of the progression he made in MLB.


As for Jeff's age, not every player makes an impact at an early age and there is a history for both.
Such late bloomers very often show a progression even if their results are not good. I don't see it clearly in Samardzija but W/E.


The fact of the matter is... Jeff is pitching very very well right now, will it continue? Who knows, neither of us have a crystal ball but if the Sox were to go after a SP at or before the deadline Id rather take my chances with a SP that has the lowest ERA in baseball than someone that has a 3 1/2 or more ERA, from either league. Like Ive said before, it would be up to Ben and his scouting staff to determine if Jeff's numbers are inflated in his favor and that he isnt the answer and that someone else would perform better in a Sox jersey. For me, I like Jeff, love his numbers and dont worry about his age or how long he's had success.
This is a rather weak answer for someone who said that Samardzija is the ONLY pitcher he'd want in trade. The answer should be an uncategorical "Yes, he's going to be freakin awesome." I agree with your wavering review because I DON'T think he's having an awesome year. I think he's having a LUCKY year and luck is fickle. Just ask Peavy. The problem with "taking your chances" on a guy like this -- without a demonstrated track record -- is that you're often gong to overpay. Eric Gagne was the classic example; he was back to dominating after injury and some terrible restarts, had one of the best RP track records in the league, and threw gas on every situation he encountered once the Sox picked him up.

Nomar
05-30-2014, 08:41 PM
Blah, blah, blah, you continously miss my point and continue to bore me. I like Jeff and he's the only pitcher Id want to see coming over to the Sox, end of story. If you dont like him then thats your friggin problem not mine.

You continue to refuse to back up anything you say with concrete facts or stats. You are the boring one, and clearly don't know what you're talking about. And calling him "Jeff" like you're his dad isn't helping your case either lol. Our "problem" is that we have to read you slobbering over a pitcher who's getting lucky over a two month span.

Nomar
05-30-2014, 09:18 PM
I have plenty of stats to back it up but why would I waste my time on a guy that takes all day to write about stuff that has nothing to do with what Im talking about? I shared an opinion, if you disagree then great, good for you but I dont need your incessant BS. I call him Jeff because his last name is a nightmare to spell continously, once again if you dont like it too friggin bad. You appear to be one of these people that refuses to be proven wrong even though within your mile long responses that prove nothing, you continue to contest you know everything about this pitcher when you know very little. You continue to completly miss my initial point so Im done with you, go pick on someone else with your uneducated crap.

Ok genius.

He has an unsustainably low rate of HR/FB. He's getting lucky with LOB numbers too. You can use ERA to back your weak arguments all you want, but you're the uneducated one.

Hope you and Jeff are happy together when he inevitably falls back down to earth.

Nomar
05-30-2014, 11:56 PM
Yes, the use of ERAs in small sample sizes aside from Waino who is a stud, proves us wrong. I'm sorry for ever doubting you.

willyssox
05-31-2014, 12:24 AM
You want more.

A. Simon
2008- 13IP RP/SP 6.23ERA
2009- 6IP SP 9.95ERA
2010- 49IP RP 4.93ERA
2011- 115IP RP/SP 4.90ERA
2012- 61IP RP 2.66ERA
2013- 63IP RP 2.87ERA
2014 62IP SP 2.90ERA

T. Ross
2010- 39IP RP/SP 5.49ERA
2011- 36IP RP/SP 2.75ERA
2012- 73IP RP/SP 6.50ERA
2013- 125IP RP/SP 3.17ERA
2014- 69IP SP 2.97ERA

J. Hammel
2006- 44IP SP 7.77ERA
2007- 85IP RP/SP 6.14ERA
2008- 78IP RP/SP 4.60ERA
2009- 176IP RP/SP 4.33ERA
2010- 177IP SP 4.81ERA
2011 170IP RP/SP 4.76ERA
2012- 118IP SP 3.43ERA
2013- 139IP RP/SP 4.97ERA
2014 64IP SP 3.08ERA

And I know I can find alot more, so jump off your soap box as you are wrong.

bagwell368
05-31-2014, 09:39 AM
Screw you, I played the game, managed the game and now write about the game, I have more knowledge in my little finger then most of you do in your entire bodies.

Playing and managing can be real useful in understanding the game - but there are lots of people that have that are stubbornly dense and opaque - so that statement proves nothing.

I guess you only post a few dozen times a year because you are too busy elsewhere. The only time I can remember having any posts with you was the in winter of '12-'13 when you were arguing that Porcello was better than a #5, and he would prove it - right away. Your arguments were not especially insightful and Porcello since that time has a 100 ERA+ - average in the AL, and basically the level of a good 4th (not quite what you were going for - I don't believe). His 7.27 ERA in 27 IP in Boston career wise certainly doesn't bolster his case for this staff. His killer record of 21-10 is due far more to the Tigers offense, then his pitching (4.19 ERA) over '13 and '14.

Maybe you ought to just prove how smart you are and let people figure that out for themselves? Or don't you have the time/patience - and just want to cut your way to the head of the line? Write what you like but if it's crap you're going to get it wrapped around your neck like a virtual long chain of rotting sweetbreads.

bagwell368
05-31-2014, 11:32 AM
Blah, blah, blah, you continously miss my point and continue to bore me. I like Jeff and he's the only pitcher Id want to see coming over to the Sox, end of story. If you dont like him then thats your friggin problem not mine.

Only? I assume you mean this year. If he's so great why does his team want to move him?

A guy that is 29 years and almost 5 months old with a combined 558 career ML innings with a 97 ERA+ and a 1.355 WHIP, only 66 GS in 189 G? all in the NL. Not very inspiring, certainly not the history of the ONLY guy... seems like you are leaning heavily on his 2014 performances (and '08 and '11 when he had his other real good years (albeit in very limited time)).

Just wondering what makes you think Theo is going to deal away the next coming? Also won't Theo be quite sure not to be taken by the Sox offer until he makes us bleed? For a 1/3 of the season wonder I'd rather pass.

willyssox
05-31-2014, 11:39 AM
What does my past opinion about Porcello (who people were calling garbage and not worth trading for) have to do with my new opinion about Jeff S- ? They have nothing to do with it just like how much I post or dont post has anything to do with my knowledge of the sport. Whether you feel I have knowledge of the game based on a few posts means nothing to me. Apparently it isnt worth posting anything to this crappy site because all people do is attack people for their opinions, real nice, Not!

willyssox
05-31-2014, 12:42 PM
And Jeff S- is under contract through next year so he isnt the 1/3 rental you speak of. And his contract is cheap.

willyssox
05-31-2014, 12:47 PM
For those who want more stats, more names (besides the ones earlier):

Tom Koehler
Lance Lynn
J. Collmenter
Alex Wood
Ryan Vogelsong
Jordan Lyles
Jorge De La Rosa
Roberto Hernandez
Marco Estrada
Jesse Chavez
CJ Wilson
Jeremy Guthrie
RA Dickey

All had time in Relief before becoming a fulltime starter and many had terrible ERA's as RP's and yet still became a Starter.

bradyoverrated
05-31-2014, 01:18 PM
And Jeff S- is under contract through next year so he isnt the 1/3 rental you speak of. And his contract is cheap.

I believe the 1/3 year aspect Mr. Bagwell was referring to was his 2014 season sample size - as the season is roughly 1/3 over.

willyssox
05-31-2014, 01:36 PM
I believe the 1/3 year aspect Mr. Bagwell was referring to was his 2014 season sample size - as the season is roughly 1/3 over.

Perhaps but it sure looks like he's calling him a rental player, which he isnt. It isnt up to us to judge, its up to the scouts for whichever team decides to trade for him. If they deem he is a top SP, worth trading prospects for, than so be it.

bagwell368
05-31-2014, 01:43 PM
What does my past opinion about Porcello (who people were calling garbage and not worth trading for) have to do with my new opinion about Jeff S- ?

Your "logic" for defending your opinion in both cases was weak - that's what in common. I thought a self professed expert & writer would pick that up.


They have nothing to do with it just like how much I post or dont post has anything to do with my knowledge of the sport.

It's difficult to ascertain what you know since you are such an infrequent visitor - but reading your few posts over doesn't give a portrait of someone that is a master of baseball or the Red Sox. Perhaps more posts would alter that in some favorable manner.


Whether you feel I have knowledge of the game based on a few posts means nothing to me.

That is at odds with you taking time to pronounce your extensive knowledge on the topic. I.E. - if it doesn't matter to you, why make the assertion?


Apparently it isnt worth posting anything to this crappy site because all people do is attack people for their opinions, real nice, Not!

Learn how to play nice and maybe it will change.

bagwell368
05-31-2014, 01:44 PM
And Jeff S- is under contract through next year so he isnt the 1/3 rental you speak of. And his contract is cheap.

Take more time to read posts. I said he has 1/3 of a great season - I said nothing about the rest of the year or next year.

bagwell368
05-31-2014, 01:48 PM
For those who want more stats, more names (besides the ones earlier):

Tom Koehler
Lance Lynn
J. Collmenter
Alex Wood
Ryan Vogelsong
Jordan Lyles
Jorge De La Rosa
Roberto Hernandez
Marco Estrada
Jesse Chavez
CJ Wilson
Jeremy Guthrie
RA Dickey

All had time in Relief before becoming a fulltime starter and many had terrible ERA's as RP's and yet still became a Starter.

Nice! Now where is the list of all the comparisons that fail to back your point?

willyssox
05-31-2014, 09:23 PM
It isnt my argument as I didnt start this crap you guys did. I dont need to provide anymore data as I provided twice as much as the other guy did. I shared an opinion that someone decided to crucify me for, which in and of its self is ridiculous, we are all entitled to our opinions.
Im not ranting I'm defending myself against ignorant people that dont understand the value of another persons opinion and have to make fun of or start **** against that person for no other reason than they disagree with that persons opinion.

RedSoxtober
06-02-2014, 10:58 AM
What does my past opinion about Porcello (who people were calling garbage and not worth trading for) have to do with my new opinion about Jeff S- ?
I would suggest that it gives a window into your ability to evaluate baseball players, pitchers in particular. If you believed that Porcello was a break-out candidate then I can also see why you'd like S---.


And Jeff S- is under contract through next year so he isnt the 1/3 rental you speak of. And his contract is cheap.
Calling him a "1/3 of the season wonder" seemed pretty transparent to most people when his sensational performance has lasted 1/3 of a season.

Also, if he is as good as you say then he won't be cheap for very long. Next year will be his walk year which means his Arb comps will open up to all (the arb process uses an expanding pool of comps based on service time which intentionally keeps prices low in the early seasons) MLB. Finishing with the top ERA in MLB would put him in position for an 8 figure salary even through arb.


For those who want more stats, more names (besides the ones earlier):

Tom Koehler
Lance Lynn
J. Collmenter
Alex Wood
Ryan Vogelsong
Jordan Lyles
Jorge De La Rosa
Roberto Hernandez
Marco Estrada
Jesse Chavez
CJ Wilson
Jeremy Guthrie
RA Dickey

All had time in Relief before becoming a fulltime starter and many had terrible ERA's as RP's and yet still became a Starter.

I think your process for selecting samples is pretty suspect. Just like offering Porcello as a guy who bounced back and forth between the rotation and BP, these examples are week.


Koehler: 35 starts in 48 G and half his relief appearances came in Sep call ups in 2012. In 2013 he opened the season in the BP but then moved to the rotation in May.
Lynn: Same deal. 16 relief appearances in 2011 (along with a couple of starts) and a full time SP since.
Collmenter: Swingman for two seasons before a full time RP role last year and back to swing man this year.
Wood: Started last year in the BP and moved into the rotation when injury required it. Injuries decimated this year's rotation so he stayed.
Vogelsong: Could be the only real example on your side. Early use suggested that the Pirates wanted him to be a SP but he couldn't hack it. Eventually moved to a pitchers park in a pitchers division and had some success.
Lyles: He has 5 relief appearances in his career, all at the end of his rookie campaign. Since he was 20yrs old at the time it looks strongly like Houston was trying to cap his innings at around 100 (finished at 94).
De La Rosa: Another SP who came in as a RP due to vacancies. Actually had 5 starts (5G) at call up time in 2004 then went to the BP to help the club the next year. KCR traded for him in 2006 and put him into the rotation where he's been ever since.
Hernandez: Broke in as a SP but moved to the BP after 3 terrible starts and finished 2006 there. Has started almost exclusively since then (swingman last year in a stacked TBR rotation). 187/228 games as a SP.
Estrada: call up appearances in the BP in 2008-10 then swing man duty in 2011; almost exclusively a SP since.
Chavez: I stand corrected -- a better example. Crappy RP who finally found success in a pitchers' park.
Wilson: I already discussed him but thanks for mentioning him again. Should have brought up Ogando and Lewis with him... but then you should also point out how they were very successful RP who became successful SP which contradicts your point.
Guthrie: 15/16 relief appearances in 3 call-up cameos and then almost exclusively a SP. Classic break in for a kid; not an example in your cause.
Dickey: Classic knuckleballer (always a special case). Basically served as a swingman due to the versatility of the pitch/arm with the exception of 2009 when he parked in the BP. A trade to the Mets (hint: new org, new opportunities) put him in the rotation full time.



This is honestly a bad list of "examples" of guys who broke in as RP and then made the transition. The vast majority of them are guys who tasted MLB in the BP as a Sep call up but have pitched almost exclusively as SP for their entire career. There are a few swingmen who occupied the middle ground and TWO guys who really started as RP and transitioned into SP.

My guess is that you scanned the list of top ERAs and then checked career stats, pulling anyone whose number of games exceeded their games started no matter how slightly. Ignoring context is no way to defend your position, particularly when you provide counterexamples to your position.


It isnt my argument as I didnt start this crap you guys did. I dont need to provide anymore data as I provided twice as much as the other guy did. I shared an opinion that someone decided to crucify me for, which in and of its self is ridiculous, we are all entitled to our opinions.

Im not ranting I'm defending myself against ignorant people that dont understand the value of another persons opinion and have to make fun of or start **** against that person for no other reason than they disagree with that persons opinion.

You're right to a degree; some of us are posting specifically to disagree with your position. You're wrong to the extent that you may be trying to suggest that it's personal. I don't care who holds a position but will support or debate it if I feel it's warranted. I believe your position is wrong -- dead wrong -- both in the assessment of the particular player and your insistence that his case occurs with any regularity. Posting a list of 13 "examples" and being wrong on 11/13 would tend to support my view.

Whether it's because we're New Englanders, die hard Sox fans, or whatever, this forum tends to me marked with pretty lively and sometimes vigorous debate. I've been proven wrong by other posters here and changed my position when others could substantiate their position more strongly than I could my own. I enjoy the process and the discussion. It's not personal but if you don't enjoy the way ideas are engaged then this might not be the place to hang out.

willyssox
06-02-2014, 11:44 AM
Yet another mile long reply that isnt necessary. Whether a pitcher pitched 4 innings in relief or 300 innings it makes no difference and I never said that any one pitcher had an extended amount of time at Relief before becoming a Starter only that many, most, whatever, started as a RP and may or may not have had success then became a SP and may or may not have had alot of success before having a good to great year this year or their numbers have improved this year like Jeff S-
The way you people attack posters on here its any wonder there isnt just 3 of you on here, learn to lighten up and alllow posters to share their opinions w/o openly attacking them for a friggin OPINION. What you and some of the others are doing are inserting that you are smarter than everyone else and you're basically acting like you're a GM when you dont use words "my opinion" or "thats what I would do" or "I may"... when you dont use these words you come across as a know it all and no one likes a know it all, especially when they dont know it all.
I called a player with a nightmare of a name Jeff S- and I got made fun of, thats just being a Bully...
I pulled up players and or stats and you have to dissect it right down to each inning he has pitched, completely missing my point while inserting yours. I dont know how old you are but you have alot of growing up to do. Stop harrassing people, stop being a bully and let people share their opinions w/o being attacked. A simple way to disagree would have been to simply say, "I disagree, dont believe that pitcher will continue to....and why" then leave it alone!

RedSoxtober
06-02-2014, 05:40 PM
Yet another mile long reply that isnt necessary. Whether a pitcher pitched 4 innings in relief or 300 innings it makes no difference and I never said that any one pitcher had an extended amount of time at Relief before becoming a Starter only that many, most, whatever, started as a RP and may or may not have had success then became a SP and may or may not have had alot of success before having a good to great year this year or their numbers have improved this year like Jeff S-

You forgot to list Pedro. Oct 11, 1999. Pedro Martinez enters the winners-take-all game 5 of the inaugural ALDS and shuts down the Indians for 6 innings to earn the win and trip to the ALCS. Therefore Pedro Martinez was a relief pitcher and became a starting pitcher in the ALCS for game 3. What a crock.

I did not miss your point regarding the players on your list; I refuted it. Very simply put, your examples are not examples of players who transitioned between roles. It's absolutely stunning that you really think that there's no difference between throwing a few innings in one MLB season (after prepping as a SP in the minors) and then becoming a SP the next season and toiling for three or four YEARS as a full time RP and then moving into the rotation. If you don't get that then I guess there's no real debate because there's no way to reason that far with you.

For the most part, the discussion here has been challenging but not attacking. There's a big difference IMO. I've been VERY direct and called you out specifically to explain a number of shortcomings that I find in your logic. That's not disrespectful, insulting, or rude though it probably makes you feel far more uncomfortable that you'd like. As yet I don't think that you've responded to any of the points (I guess you tried to respond with that list of pitchers that was so horribly constructed).

So now I'll just borrow your template to restate my case and, expecting no fact-based response, just leave it be: "I disagree, dont (sic) believe that pitcher (Samarzdija) will continue to... (prevent runs) and why (because he has an unsustainable HR/9, H/9 well below his career mark, historically low FIP, unsustainable difference between FIP and ERA, has compiled most of his league-leading ERA against teams in the bottom half of the league in run production*, and has little track record indicative of sustained performance)."

*3.0IP, 8H, 8ER, 2BB, 3K, 1HR, 1HBP yesterday against MIL (12R/11ER in 10IP over his last two starts) if you're keeping track.

Nomar
06-02-2014, 05:50 PM
Hey leave Jeff alone he's trying his hardest!

willyssox
06-02-2014, 05:57 PM
Pedro pitched in 65 games in 1993, with only 2 of those games being as a Starter.
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=118377#gameType='R'&sectionType=career&statType=2&season=2014&level='ALL'

I really dont care what you have to say but yet you keep replying to me as if I do. Your responeses are way too long and you lose any point you May be trying to make in the process, all the while continously missing my point and continously trying to degrade anything I say or assert, your problem not mine. If you want to be a ******* your entire life and be disrespectful to people in general then thats your problem but I could never respect or agree with anything you have to say because of the way you act. Try growing up, allow people to share their opinion w/o becoming a complete ******* in return. Now leave me alone.

Nomar
06-02-2014, 07:44 PM
You're just way too defensive, and you can't tell the difference between opinion and statistical analysis. Stop responding, this shouldn't even have become an issue to begin with. If you're new here, you're going to have to get used to people being critical sometimes.

willyssox
06-02-2014, 07:51 PM
I'm not new and what you people do is criticize people for their opinion. Never mind the fact you wont except any stat unless it came from you, hypocrits. Why dont you stop responding.

win red sox
06-02-2014, 08:04 PM
I'm not new and what you people do is criticize people for their opinion. Never mind the fact you wont except any stat unless it came from you, hypocrits. Why dont you stop responding.

A couple years ago, I suggested the XB was the ss of the future and got hammered on this board by some senior posters as they didn't he think had the glove or thought he was going to be too big. It really turned me off and so I don't post here that often, but I hope you keep posting it's good to get a different opinion.

I keep tabs on this forum because there are a couple really solid posters that provide some good insight and makes me reconsider some of my opinions.

bagwell368
06-02-2014, 08:07 PM
If you want to be a ******* your entire life and be disrespectful to people in general then thats your problem but I could never respect or agree with anything you have to say because of the way you act. Try growing up, allow people to share their opinion w/o becoming a complete ******* in return. Now leave me alone.

Are you familiar with the notion of irony, because you are the one acting in a aggressive and childish manner and several of your posts drip with disrespect. You posting these words is simply ridiculous.

RST is a very good and patient mod, you are simply one of those 5-10 windbags that shows up every year and can't sustain the effort, nor back up the big claims over time. They almost always end up getting banned, or leaving since they've been outed as empty suits.

Not sure which of the two you end up being, but it's quite clear already - you're destined for "a" or "b".

willyssox
06-02-2014, 08:12 PM
I was being attacked for an opinion. I dont give 2 ***** what you chose to label me, as I wasnt talking to you. Im glad you have a crush on the other poster, with his nature he needs all the friends he can get.

AI
06-02-2014, 09:18 PM
I see some things never change.

bagwell368
06-02-2014, 10:23 PM
I dont give 2 ***** what you chose to label me, as I wasnt talking to you.

This is a forum, every comment is open to comment from everyone, there is no right of exclusive communication - that's what PM's are for.

The manster
06-03-2014, 03:08 AM
I was being attacked for an opinion. I dont give 2 ***** what you chose to label me, as I wasnt talking to you. Im glad you have a crush on the other poster, with his nature he needs all the friends he can get.

Willyssox, Take to heart what Win Red Sox posted above about some of the senior posters in this forum. It's absolutely true, there are more then a few in the Sox forum who know way too much then anyone can imagine. Two of them are your biggest critics in this thread and if you take it too far you'll end up getting suspended for a few days by A mod.

I'm a huge red sox fan but don't post in here for the same reason, it's sickening that it's come down to it but move on from it. I check out the posts to check on others opinions because there are some in here I have respect for and every time I look these guys are either agreeing with each other or bashing someone new or somebody not smart enough to leave the forum.

BostonSports96
06-03-2014, 03:28 AM
I was being attacked for an opinion. I dont give 2 ***** what you chose to label me, as I wasnt talking to you. Im glad you have a crush on the other poster, with his nature he needs all the friends he can get.

Yes there are people on here that will act harshly when they criticize you and it sucks until you become like a regular, but you also can't respond in such dramatic ways and try to consistently retaliate with hostility. That way you're just making it harder on yourself, because you drop lower on the totem pole in their eyes.

theGhost-isGone
06-03-2014, 06:45 AM
Yes there are people on here that will act harshly when they criticize you and it sucks until you become like a regular, but you also can't respond in such dramatic ways and try to consistently retaliate with hostility. That way you're just making it harder on yourself, because you drop lower on the totem pole in their eyes.

Exactly. I'm still new, and I don't post often, but you have to know when to look in the mirror and see if you're the ***** hole.

Like the saying from Justified goes, Good god I love that show...

RedSoxtober
06-03-2014, 09:23 AM
I'm not new and what you people do is criticize people for their opinion. Never mind the fact you wont except any stat unless it came from you, hypocrits. Why dont you stop responding.
It seems that you want to post and respond but not afford others the same opportunity.


I was being attacked for an opinion. I dont give 2 ***** what you chose to label me, as I wasnt talking to you. Im glad you have a crush on the other poster, with his nature he needs all the friends he can get.

Interesting that you point to others as being disrespectful even while doing it yourself. Unfortunately you have conflated the responses of different posters. For my part, I've been respectful in stating my case but very direct in pointing out reasons why I find fault with your conclusions and honestly find it sad that there's no more discussion than "cuz I said so."

willyssox
06-03-2014, 11:27 AM
Thank you for the incite, much appreciated. Though I dont worry about being tossed from here it's alarming that in this day and age, with Freedom if speech being so prevalent, that there are people that will attack you for an opinion. Everyone, anyone, should be able to go onto any medium of their choice, put forth their opinion(s) in a respectful manner and not be attacked for it. I'm not sure what you have read but I simply stated the only SP I would want Ben Cherington to go after, trade for, is Jeff Samardzija, not Shields that someone had mentioned ( I started called him Jeff S- because his last name is a nightmare and I was criticized for that even). After I did this I got "Haters" that declared there was no way in **** that he could continue his good trend and basically that he was garbage. I argued that not all pitchers find their groove until later in careers and that he had only 2 years of starting experience behind him (excluding the start of this year). I mentioned that sometimes there is a transition period after switching from Relieving to Starting. I was asked to provide stats that proved there was a transition of some kind. I was also told around this time that the only reason a SP ever becomes a RP is because he stinks at being a starter, which may have been the case 30 years ago but no longer is. They refuse to believe it. It didnt matter how many players or stats I gave them they were never satisfied and continously tried to denegrate anything I put forth, mostly in a ridiculous fashion. For goodness sakes Pedro Martinez started in Relief and I think he eventually became a pretty good pitcher no?
Then they wanted me to provide the reverse stats, that wouldve proved their point. Now why would I do that?, that is insanity at it's finest.
One of them kept sending me mile long responses that I fell asleep trying to read. The responses besides being too long were way off the point I originally made and or way off from an OPINION. To me this is Bullying and should not be excepted ever. A person should have the right to share an opinion w/o being attacked. It pissed me off to the point where I felt the need to fight back verbally and that really isnt me.

They come across as "Know it alls" when in fact they know alot less than they think. I dont profess to be an expert but I did play the game, did coach the game and now I am a professional writer of the sport, so I'm hardly an idiot. If someone like Peter Gammons or an ex-player/announcer like Jerry Remy... told me I was way off base... then I would respect it but when a couple of Blowhards attack me for an opinion I get fed up. Ive had the same problem with a couple of people on the Red Sox fan forum (could be the same couple of people for all I know), share an opinion on there and never hear the end of it and then when you come back to them over time and point out how they were wrong they back track. It would be nice if you could go on these forums and just talk baseball w/o feeling you're under attack. Thanks again.

Black&Gold247
06-03-2014, 10:04 PM
Anyway you guys can just start your own thread about your dislike for one another? I get suckered in seeing the post count go up and think there's actual trade talk going on.

willyssox
06-03-2014, 10:33 PM
Your in the wrong place if you want to read that, try going to MlbTradeRumors.Com

BostonSports96
06-03-2014, 11:26 PM
Your in the wrong place if you want to read that, try going to MlbTradeRumors.Com

He means trade speculation and ideas created by Red Sox fans for Red Sox fans, not actual trade news. You know, stuff that is supposed to be in this thread, the reason why this thread was created.

willyssox
06-03-2014, 11:32 PM
I wanted to talk about trades until I was attacked. And as for the other site, you can talk with one another & read about possible trades.

theGhost-isGone
06-04-2014, 06:33 AM
Anyway you guys can just start your own thread about your dislike for one another? I get suckered in seeing the post count go up and think there's actual trade talk going on.

+1. I've been really intrigued by our position in the standings and whether we'll be buyers, sellers, players we'd target, players we might trade away etc.

To get back to the thread's topic, I'm curious what happened to Mike Moustakas in KC. Can't remember if someone brought his name up during the off-season or if it was myself, but iirc he was sent to the minors maybe he's a guy we could get on a buy-low deal. I think we could use a power hitting 1b/corner OF in our system.

Who do you guys think is available between now and July, and who becomes expendable if we end up falling out of it and selling at the deadline?

bagwell368
06-04-2014, 06:53 AM
Everyone, anyone, should be able to go onto any medium of their choice, put forth their opinion(s) in a respectful manner and not be attacked for it.

Reread what you have written in this thread - respectful is not a word that comes to mind.


Then they wanted me to provide the reverse stats, that wouldve proved their point. Now why would I do that?, that is insanity at it's finest.

Or perhaps an unproved and undefended assertion isn't worth much.


It pissed me off to the point where I felt the need to fight back verbally and that really isnt me.

More self aggrandizing bull. You've attacked others, but have had a very thin skin of anything sent to you - even reasonably expressed.


They come across as "Know it alls" when in fact they know alot less than they think.

Prove it. You haven't even left the batters box on expressing this deep knowledge you claim to have.


I dont profess to be an expert but I did play the game, did coach the game and now I am a professional writer of the sport

A professional writer that can't spell "insight"? I played too, I coached too, I got paid to coach teams, and players individually.


so I'm hardly an idiot.

Who can tell, you spend at least 75% of your time attacking others or defending yourself or making grandiose claims.


If someone like Peter Gammons or an ex-player/announcer like Jerry Remy... told me I was way off base... then I would respect it

Gammons is about 10 years past his late prime, Remy isn't very insightful - on TV at least.


but when a couple of Blowhards attack me for an opinion I get fed up.

I never once attacked you for your opinion. I've addressed your behavior and pointed out the flaws in Jeffs resume.


Ive had the same problem with a couple of people on the Red Sox fan forum (could be the same couple of people for all I know), share an opinion on there and never hear the end of it and then when you come back to them over time and point out how they were wrong they back track. It would be nice if you could go on these forums and just talk baseball w/o feeling you're under attack. Thanks again.

So go ahead and talk baseball and leave the Perry Mason defense and hair trigger sniping at the door.

RedSoxtober
06-04-2014, 12:26 PM
willyssox -- tried to PM this to you but your PMs are blocked for whatever reason so I'm posting this publicly here. I'll be glad to remove it if/when you ask me to.

I agree with you that this thread has gotten out of hand. As I said above I'm pretty much done with the discussion regarding Samarzdija because it's clear there is absolutely no common ground.

I have let a lot of things go in the discussion -- on all sides -- because I was very much involved in the discussion. In my view I should not moderate my own discussion because it could be perceived the wrong way. That's changing now that I'm pulling out. Comments like "you must have grown up in a dump without parents" are uncalled for and violate the "insults" rules. I deleted the last comment you made in the thread because of it.

I'd really like you to revisit your comments in the thread (as I will mine). If you can re-read them objectively (hard, I admit) I think that you will see that you are violating a number of the things that you yourself are insisting should happen in the thread.

We both agree that people should be able to post whatever they want, to control their own opinions. Where we perhaps disagree is over the expectation of responses. I fully expect other people to engage my ideas, disagree with me, and point out where I'm wrong. I'll defend my ideas and corroborate them as best I can. In the end I think it produces better ideas. That's also the collaborative nature of my day-to-day work so maybe that's why it doesn't bother me.

I guess this leads me to say that I believe that it's very possible to disagree with an idea that someone proposes without attacking the person. Do you disagree with that? If so, I'll do my best to just steer clear of your comments. I believe that's what I've done in the thread (although I'm going to re-read to be sure). Others have insulted you directly and that was wrong.

At any rate, I'm hoping that we can get this back on an even keel.

- RST

RedSoxtober
06-04-2014, 12:54 PM
Anyone seen Reed Johnson in the OF this year? His $1M salary would be pretty easy to swallow and his bat (.324/.347/.529) has been pretty good to date. He might be an easier trade target to land to help the anemic OF production even if he only projects as a 4th OF who gets 3-4 starts a week in the corners.

Willingham would be nice as well (beating the cover off the ball now that he's back) but I suspect he'd be more costly than this season is worth, though his relative value may be more tied to how MIA and MIN each view their own post-season chances.

Most likely trade piece: Simon Mercedes. Sox have dealt his kind of profile (a-ball pitcher, high 90s fastball, fringe command) at the deadline a lot of late.

willyssox
06-04-2014, 01:24 PM
Ive lost track of who has been attacking in nature. I am not normally a defensive person but I felt I was under attack for an OPINION. Like you said & I saud before you, anyone should be able to share an opinion w/o being attacked, criticized for it. Someone had suggested Shields as an acquisition, I simply said I wouldnt have interest in him and that the only pitcher "I" would want is Jeff. That shouldnt have warranted criticism. I am always open to discuss what I like or dont like about a player/team but to be instantly criticized and put on the defensive is unexceptable. I was also critized for calling him "Jeff" despite the fact everyone knows how hard it is to spell or even say his last name. I have been further criticized for spelling errors because Im a writer, doesnt everyone know that all writers have an editor that is there to clean up their work? Excuse me if I misspell something. All of these things made me defensive, made me attack back when that would never have happened should people be more receptive to other people's opinions and or just let more things go. Baseball has always been a major part of my life, so I enjoy conversing about it but find it impossible on sites like this that seem to have "Predators" and or Bullies hanging about waiting for fresh kill, its ridiculous. Everyone should be able to feel comfortable sharing ideas, opinions...w/o feeling like they have to prove themselves or defend themselves.

bagwell368
06-04-2014, 01:40 PM
Anyone seen Reed Johnson in the OF this year? His $1M salary would be pretty easy to swallow and his bat (.324/.347/.529) has been pretty good to date. He might be an easier trade target to land to help the anemic OF production even if he only projects as a 4th OF who gets 3-4 starts a week in the corners.

Willingham would be nice as well (beating the cover off the ball now that he's back) but I suspect he'd be more costly than this season is worth, though his relative value may be more tied to how MIA and MIN each view their own post-season chances.

Most likely trade piece: Simon Mercedes. Sox have dealt his kind of profile (a-ball pitcher, high 90s fastball, fringe command) at the deadline a lot of late.

Reed Johnson would have looked good in a Sox uniform several times over the past few years as a 4th OF/RHH.

We're not the only ones that could use him, so he may cost a bit more than he's worth, but it shouldn't be too bad.

Of course it probably means Nava down or out at the least.

RedSoxtober
06-04-2014, 03:28 PM
If Nava isn't going to PH for Hassan with the tying run on, two outs, and Hassan on the verge of a golden sombrero then I doubt Farrell has a lot of faith in him. Pretty amazing how quickly he fell out of favor (managerial comments notwithstanding). In hindsight he should have been the perfect sell-high candidate last offseason.

Pittz
06-04-2014, 04:39 PM
Nava was definitely a good sell-high candidate, but even with his stellar season last year I don't think his value would have been all that high.

Willyssox, where do you write, if you don't mind my asking?

willyssox
06-04-2014, 05:09 PM
I write for a lot of different venues. Some as part contributors, some as the only contributor. Ive done as big as Sports Illustrated to as small as on-line articles for Fansided and alike. Baseball, Hockey and Football but my primary sport is Baseball. Thanks for asking.

Nomar
06-04-2014, 05:19 PM
It's crazy how often Farrell is using Gomes vs RHP.

Were always rumored to like Denorfia too.

bagwell368
06-04-2014, 06:17 PM
Nava was definitely a good sell-high candidate, but even with his stellar season last year I don't think his value would have been all that high.

Nava's year last year was too out of character. I had him dealt in my SIM. A future in AAA and being cut loose? Maybe.

BostonSports96
06-04-2014, 08:23 PM
I saw Bleacher Report (I know I know) suggest we go after Dexter Fowler....thoughts?

Nomar
06-04-2014, 09:04 PM
I saw Bleacher Report (I know I know) suggest we go after Dexter Fowler....thoughts?

JBJ would be as good as Fowler by August if he stays a starter IMO. I think we'd be looking for more along the lines of a corner OF with power.

I would like someone like Khris Davis. He's under team control until 2020 and should walk more going forward. He would obviously not be too cheap considering the length of control, but with our abundance of prospects, I think we could swing something for him. Maybe Ranaudo + Coyle. Probably not someone the Brewers are looking to deal though

papipapsmanny
06-05-2014, 03:15 PM
I think we either sell or buy guys that could be available and would be around.

Ryan Zimmerman could possibly be available if were into a guy like that.He is fair contract that takes him through his age 34 season, and the nats got a logjam in the infield, and they could free up some money for guys like Strasburg and Harper. This is total speculation and I don't even have an opinion on whether I would want the Sox to do it or not. If they did obviously it would free up Garin as trade bait.

Stanton is obviously everyone's prize.

My point more is I don't want to trade these good prospects for a rental that in the end may only make us miss the playoffs by less games.

F*(&"Next Year"
06-05-2014, 03:48 PM
We should just trade everyone for Mike Trout.

cocossox
06-05-2014, 06:04 PM
John Mayberry does not excite me, plus we need SP...what do u guys think.

willyssox
06-05-2014, 06:06 PM
I can tell you that the Phillies have scouted the Sox pretty extensively recently and that the Sox do have interest in Mayberry JR among others but Im not sure who the "others" are.

willyssox
06-06-2014, 05:10 PM
RUMOR ALERT,

Latest rumor has Mookie Betts possibly going to Philly for Marlon Byrd.

I'm not sure how most would feel about this but I for one hope this is just a rumor.

AI
06-06-2014, 05:59 PM
RUMOR ALERT,

Latest rumor has Mookie Betts possibly going to Philly for Marlon Byrd.

I'm not sure how most would feel about this but I for one hope this is just a rumor.

In other news, cocaine is bad for your health.

willyssox
06-06-2014, 06:06 PM
Thanks I didnt know this. C'mon!

Nomar
06-06-2014, 06:07 PM
RUMOR ALERT,

Latest rumor has Mookie Betts possibly going to Philly for Marlon Byrd.

I'm not sure how most would feel about this but I for one hope this is just a rumor.

That rumor started as a sarcastic joke on twitter that people didn't pick up on. The reasoning was that Byrd has 115 career HRs and Mookie has 0 lol.

willyssox
06-06-2014, 06:10 PM
Thanks for the update, glad it's made up.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-06-2014, 06:19 PM
why would any believe in a rumor that has us sending arguably the best 2B prospect in the game for a slightly above average 36 yr old? :laugh:

willyssox
06-06-2014, 06:34 PM
Didnt say I believed in it but stranger things have happened, stranger trades have occurred.

BoSox47
06-07-2014, 12:18 PM
10 games out of the division, 4 out of the wildcard. At what point do you think they start selling? In two or three weeks we should know whether or not we will be sellers or buyers.

Nomar
06-07-2014, 12:23 PM
If were gonna sell I think we should trade Pedroia.

willyssox
06-07-2014, 12:40 PM
Who do they have to sell? A couple of bullpen arms?

Nomar
06-07-2014, 12:46 PM
Lackey, Pedroia, Peavy, and Lester depending on what the move is there (I'd rather extend him).

willyssox
06-07-2014, 12:51 PM
IMO they wont move Pedroia and they love Lester so I cant see him going anywhere Unless they think they cant re-sign him. They have to keep Lackey for protection should Lester leave. Peavy I could see being moved but not sure how many teams would think he's an upgrade over what they already have. Someone yesterday on Twitter suggested trading Koji, who they could probably get a decent return on but man Id hate to see him go even if we stink. Should be interesting to see what happens in a months time or so.

Nomar
06-07-2014, 01:18 PM
Oh yeah Koji, I forgot him. I'd hate to see Koji go, but he'd fetch more in trade than a reliever is worth for sure. People pay out the *** for closers when they dont need to. We could probably get a top 25 spec from some team for him.

I don't think we would trade Pedroia either. But I do think we should. He's declining very fast offensively. He's got no power at all anymore. We have Mookie shooting up the ranks, and he'd be of more value to us at 2B than CF, especially considering the fact that we have JBJ (who I think is going to be fine offensively in time). Pedroia's contract is great and will be attractive to any team in need of a 2B. He'd get a very good package in a trade, and our team would be better off with Mookie at 2B and that package, than we would be with JBJ at a corner, Mookie in CF, and Pedroia at 2B IMO.

People would cry because we are losing our "leader". Sorry, but how much is his "leadership" helping right now? He has a negative WPA (he's not hitting in the clutch at all), he has no power, an his ego will always be huge even if he's a league average offensive 2B. He had a good ride, but I'd ditch him while we can. He's always going to be though of as a Red Sox player, if people are worried about that.

willyssox
06-07-2014, 01:22 PM
If pedroia could stop hurting his hands/fingers I think he'd still be a good hitter but....

BoSox47
06-07-2014, 01:39 PM
IMO they wont move Pedroia and they love Lester so I cant see him going anywhere Unless they think they cant re-sign him. They have to keep Lackey for protection should Lester leave. Peavy I could see being moved but not sure how many teams would think he's an upgrade over what they already have. Someone yesterday on Twitter suggested trading Koji, who they could probably get a decent return on but man Id hate to see him go even if we stink. Should be interesting to see what happens in a months time or so.

I think Lackey can actually get us good value in a trade at the deadline. If we are out i almost expect him to get traded unless he has a NTC.

RedSoxtober
06-07-2014, 02:01 PM
I think Lackey can actually get us good value in a trade at the deadline. If we are out i almost expect him to get traded unless he has a NTC.
Lackey does not have an NTC but does have a "re-assignment bonus" of around $1M if he's traded. Hardly a poison pill considering his 2015 option.

Moving Pedroia? Interesting idea. Unfortunately there is a very clear trend in his power (.493, .474, .449, .415, .373). He's still getting it done defensively though. I'd also suggest that his contract (first $100M contract for a 2B) is not going to be that attractive unless you think he turns the trend on his power.

Nomar
06-07-2014, 02:17 PM
Lackey does not have an NTC but does have a "re-assignment bonus" of around $1M if he's traded. Hardly a poison pill considering his 2015 option.

Moving Pedroia? Interesting idea. Unfortunately there is a very clear trend in his power (.493, .474, .449, .415, .373). He's still getting it done defensively though. I'd also suggest that his contract (first $100M contract for a 2B) is not going to be that attractive unless you think he turns the trend on his power.

If he's on average a 2.2 WAR player he's worth the deal. I think that's definitely a safe bet. Especially when you consider that players will only get more expensive and 100M deals will be far more common by the last few years of his deal.

He's not worth the moin anymore, but he'd definitely being us a great package still.

willyssox
06-07-2014, 02:48 PM
Not sure if when a pitcher misses a year due to injury whether he's still a 10/5 guy or not but if he is then he does have a NT of sorts. They could probably get a good return on him but I dont see them trading him, we'll see.

Bo Sox Fan
06-07-2014, 02:49 PM
If Garciapara can be traded and the franchise continued to win, Pedroia can be dealt IMO.

He could potentially bring in a franchise altering package from any team with even a mid level payroll. Elite 2nd baseman are near impossible to find, let alone be available.

Go for it.

willyssox
06-07-2014, 02:58 PM
I'm surprised that people want to trade Pedroia, he's struggling a bit this year but they didnt give him that long term contract a year ago to be traded now, just dont ever see it happening, thats 1 of the reasons why theyve moved Betts to the OF, cause he's never gonna play 2nd base for us.

Wondering if the Sox will have any interest in the Cuban FA OF'r that has speed???

Nomar
06-07-2014, 03:45 PM
If Garciapara can be traded and the franchise continued to win, Pedroia can be dealt IMO.

He could potentially bring in a franchise altering package from any team with even a mid level payroll. Elite 2nd baseman are near impossible to find, let alone be available.

Go for it.

Agreed. Because he's offensively average at a low point right now, so he should have 3 more seasons being worth 3+ Wins before he become more like a 1.5-2 WAR player. That's still very good. If we didn't have Mookie, I would think trading him is crazy. But I think given what we have we're better off using him to load the farm again. Losing Bogaerts, Cecchini, JBJ, and Betts soon, our farm is going to be lacking bats in the upper minors (A+ through AAA really). Pedroia could help there for sure.

One team I would look at is Colorado. Two prospects we could be interested in are David Dahl and Ryan Mcmahon (I assume butler and Gray are off the table as they should be). They are both cruising in A ball at the moment.

Dahl I think would be a complete stud in our system. We would probably help his approach, which is his only major weakness (6.7% BB). He's a good fielder in CF, and has the speed/arm for all three OF positions. He's got above average power, and is striking out 16.7% which isn't bad. He has a 130 wRC+ right now with a .302 BABIP which is unlucky for someone with his profile at that level. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa657861&position=OF

Mcmahon is a lefty power hitting 3B. He probably could handle a corner OF spot considering his arm and less than pathetic speed. He's got some swing in miss in his game for sure, but there's big power too. If he cuts his Ks down he'd be able to hit for average too. Coming into the draft last year both hit and power tools were above average. He's going to get on base regardless, as he has a patient approach.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737539&position=3B

There are other guys like Rosell Herrera or Raimel Tapia who I like too and have upside in Colorado's system.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-07-2014, 05:57 PM
I would trade lackey/Koji in a heart beat..As for pedroia? I don't know, few things to consider...

* Through 58 games he has a 1.9 WAR (first on the team), He's EASILY going to make his money.

* While he's declining, He could become a 2.0 WAR player and be close to earning his deal.

* Great clubhouse guy. Now is he the type of guy that will go up to someone and tell a bad egg to cut the crap? Probably not.

* He signed a long term deal for short money, now...does that give him the right to hold boston hostage? No. However, How many players in the future will sign for under market value when they see Boston trading a player that signed one just a season or two later?

Now, I'm not saying he's untouchable (who is?) but he does seem to be the type of guy that does even more important than his numbers suggest. I'm not a fan of the word "intangibles", but he has them. I just feel like his presence on the field every game is still pretty big.

willyssox
06-07-2014, 06:41 PM
Well said and I couldnt agree more.

papipapsmanny
06-07-2014, 11:57 PM
You can't trade Pedroia, FAs would look at out offers as a joke, if we were to trade pedroia, who has a team friendly deal and who is the "heart" of the Sox.

Its not going to happen.

Lackey, Lester, Peavy, Breslow, Drew, Victorino, Napoli, Buchholz, Doubront, Sizemore, Koji..... all can go in productive deals

BoSox47
06-08-2014, 11:44 AM
I wonder if Drew gets hot right now, if teams will call and try to trade for him. Especially if we eat part of the contract.

MagicBucsSox
06-08-2014, 12:19 PM
The Boston Red Sox are in the market for an outfielder. Perhaps the Philadelphia Phillies have a player to offer.

Philadelphia scouts have followed the Red Sox around over their past five series, according to the Boston Globe, and pretty much open to trading away everybody on their roster.

According to major league sources, the Phillies are making pretty much everyone on their roster available in trade. Chase Utley has 10/5 rights and he’s still a very good player the Phillies could rebuild around.

The Phillies are 24-34 as of June 6, and seven games back of the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins.

John Mayberry Jr. could offer the Red Sox a boost. He’s a big, right-handed bat, but is stuck in a timeshare in the Phillies’ outfield.

Domonic Brown has underachieved this season, batting .206 with four home runs and 27 RBIs. He has power, but has not lived up to his potential.

Marlon Byrd has a history with Boston, so would the team be willing to welcome him back into town? He’s got eight dingers, 32 RBIs, and a .264 batting average, which could certainly provide a boost to the Red Sox lineup.

The Kansas City Royals may be willing to part with Alex Gordon, who the Sox have always coveted, as well as Lorenzo Cain, according to the report. The Royals are 29-31 and four games out of first place in the American League Central standings. They could be sellers this summer as the trade deadline approached.

Previously, Boston has been linked to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfielders, specifically Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp.

Last month, WEEI.com reported general manager Ben Cherington wanted to exercise some patience, to give Grady Sizemore and Jackie Bradley some more time to round into shape and wait for Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Will Middlebrooks to return to the lineup.

The Globe suggests that stance has changed — the Red Sox “don’t understand it” but are “looking to do something about it soon.”

Hope the wasn't posted already. But you can't trade Pedroia. They guy took an incredible hometown discount. Future players and agents would never forget that betrayal IMO.

Nomar
06-08-2014, 01:50 PM
I did say it wouldn't happen. Just that business wise it makes sense.

I'd take a flier on Mayberry. I think he'd hit well at Fenway. He's actually mashing this year too. Great fielder in RF/LF.

Nomar
06-08-2014, 08:43 PM
Maybe we could look into Austin Jackson. FA in 2016. His batted ball distance suggests he could have a power surge in the HR department. Another type of guy who would benefit from the monster and hit well at AL East parks.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-08-2014, 11:11 PM
Maybe we could look into Austin Jackson. FA in 2016. His batted ball distance suggests he could have a power surge in the HR department. Another type of guy who would benefit from the monster and hit well at AL East parks.

Few guys in '16 look nice. Upton/Heyward in particular are 2 guys that jump out to me.

Upton's maturity issues and Home/Road splits seem concerning and the chances of these 2 guys being locked up are decent but might as well dream a bit.

Nomar
06-08-2014, 11:29 PM
Few guys in '16 look nice. Upton/Heyward in particular are 2 guys that jump out to me.

Upton's maturity issues and Home/Road splits seem concerning and the chances of these 2 guys being locked up are decent but might as well dream a bit.

Easily would want Heyward more. I'd be surprised if he reaches FA though.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-08-2014, 11:52 PM
Agreed. Upton just has way too many red flags imo.

RedSoxtober
06-09-2014, 09:42 AM
Not sure if when a pitcher misses a year due to injury whether he's still a 10/5 guy or not but if he is then he does have a NT of sorts. They could probably get a good return on him but I dont see them trading him, we'll see.

Good point. Yes, the lost 2012 season counts thanks to his guaranteed contract.


I did say it wouldn't happen. Just that business wise it makes sense.

I'd take a flier on Mayberry. I think he'd hit well at Fenway. He's actually mashing this year too. Great fielder in RF/LF.
I'm not sure that "businesswise" is the right term here. Your argument seems to be more based on performance : offense has dropped, viable replacement coming soon, package builds the overall system. Those aren't really business concerns.

At any rate, I think they've pointed out contrary business concerns that must also be weighed -- your ability to attract talent in the market place. It's definitely true that no player would look kindly on a team dealing a player after signing him to a new, long-term contract. There was some blowback when they dealt Arroyo in March after signing him to a team-friendly deal in January; I can't imagine it would be less for a face-of-the-franchise type player.

He can't be dealt this year anyway; he'd have the right to void his deal after the season due to his service time and being in the first year of his new deal. I doubt anyone would deal for him unless he was guaranteed to stay.


Maybe we could look into Austin Jackson. FA in 2016. His batted ball distance suggests he could have a power surge in the HR department. Another type of guy who would benefit from the monster and hit well at AL East parks.
Strongly doubt that our 2013 rivals would deal a big part of their team to help us get better.


Few guys in '16 look nice. Upton/Heyward in particular are 2 guys that jump out to me.

Upton's maturity issues and Home/Road splits seem concerning and the chances of these 2 guys being locked up are decent but might as well dream a bit.

I've always like Heyward but wonder if his star has fallen. His power has seemingly evaporated and his OPS is in a second consecutive year of decline. It's hard to imagine a bad mix for him in ATL, a club that prides itself on developing and keeping talent (kinda like the NL version of the Twins but more successful). Personally I'd wait him out to see if he can turn the tide before investing anything more than money in his services.

RedSoxtober
06-09-2014, 12:12 PM
With the team fourth in the AL East with a lackluster 28-34 record, many have brought up the possibility that the Red Sox might put players such as Jon Lester or John Lackey on the trade market in order to get some value during a lost season. Gammons doesn’t agree with the notion of Boston playing the role of seller this season.

“€śI don’€™t think they sell, just because of the nature of the Boston fans and because of the nature of the market and because of NESN,”€ť Gammons said. “€śI think they stick with it and hope they have a really good last month and find enough starting pitching stability to be able to make a run the last two months of the season. I think they really believe that’s possible.”

Gammons continued: “I don’t think that they would move Lester, Lackey or [Koji] Uehara. I do think that they would move [A.J.] Pierzynski and bring up [Christian] Vasquez if they were 11 or 12 [games out]. I think you would probably see Mookie Betts around the 15th of August, just the way we saw Bogaerts come up last year. I don’t think that they’ll go in any big-time sell-off, because I think that they still believe that they can sign Lester, eventually work something out with Lackey, maybe on a two-year deal and then try to keep the pitching staff.” Gammons on weei.com

-Lavigne43-
06-09-2014, 12:41 PM
I hope he's just clueless. You have to use this failed season as a great opportunity to build the team long term. I can understand keeping Lackey, though I think you would be missing out on a terrific deal. Trading Koji is just too obvious a thing to do given his age. If they don't sign or trade Lester that is a complete failure

BoSox47
06-09-2014, 04:56 PM
Package Lackey and Koji together for a prospect for a team thats in the hunt and having closer issues.

MagicBucsSox
06-09-2014, 06:34 PM
I hope he's just clueless. You have to use this failed season as a great opportunity to build the team long term. I can understand keeping Lackey, though I think you would be missing out on a terrific deal. Trading Koji is just too obvious a thing to do given his age. If they don't sign or trade Lester that is a complete failure
How is it a failed season 6 games under June 9th? I swear you ppl are so spoiled. Why not make a trade for an impact bat, or arm? Season isn't even halfway through, bunch of spoiled brats in here with no fight in y'all. Hell we can still win the division or the extra playoff spot.

Pull your skirts up people!!

-Lavigne43-
06-09-2014, 07:19 PM
lol, I'm probably one of the most glass half full guys on this site. The season is almost halfway over, if you think this team still has a realistic shot at the playoffs you are just delusional. To make the playoffs literally half the players on the team would have to turn it around and get hot in the 2nd half, and Lester, Lackey, and the pen would have no room for regression. We'd also need no one else in the AL East that has under performed to get hot.

It's time to get real, we have the 3rd worst record in the AL, the Astros are only a game behind us. Unless they have a .700+ month they should start selling July 1st. We can trade assets that don't have a future on this team past 2015 for plus prospects that we can either develop or use in future trades. Or we can do nothing and pray for a miracle.

BostonSports96
06-09-2014, 09:40 PM
Yeah I agree with Lavigne43 100%.

As I'm typing, we are 28-35 with 99 games to go. We would have to go 62-37 the rest of the way JUST to get to 90 wins...and that might not be enough for a playoff spot even. The way the season has gone so far, I don't see the 3rd worst team in the AL suddenly turning it around to win at a .626 clip the rest of the way.

If we are under .500 by mid-to-late July, we should sell. I, however, would not sell Lackey. He's obviously still got it and if we can have him at the minimum next season he'll be a very valuable piece, as long as the rest of the team is strong.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-09-2014, 10:30 PM
I have no idea if texas would even be interested, but if they are 1-2 games out or even somehow ahead in the WC...Any possibility they would be willing to trade Gallo? He's EXTREMELY raw, but his power is insane.

At any rate, I'd love to load up on the prospects. Lackey, Koji, and Drew make by far the most sense to deal off and others should be on the table if the price is right (Victorino for example).

If the Red sox feel lester is 100% assignable, trade him for multiple top prospects (However I really hope they can get a deal done that makes sense for both parties). Clay? If he can SOMEHOW come back and pitch well before the deadline for a few starts? deal him (Not good odds that happens obviously).

RedSoxtober
06-10-2014, 09:43 AM
How is it a failed season 6 games under June 9th? I swear you ppl are so spoiled. Why not make a trade for an impact bat, or arm? Season isn't even halfway through, bunch of spoiled brats in here with no fight in y'all. Hell we can still win the division or the extra playoff spot.

Pull your skirts up people!!

Expecting a team that is 28-35 and incapable of sustaining any kind of momentum from a dramatic come-from-behind victory on national TV to storm into the playoffs seems more of a privileged (or Polyana) perspective IMO. In general terms, teams that are six or more games out of first by the end of May rarely make the playoffs. (This per a study a few years ago emphasizing that ALL the games are important, not just the "important" games in August and September). The Sox are well beyond that point in the division and barely hanging on in the WC.

More importantly, look at this particular team. The OF has the third worst production of any team in the last 40 years. That's pretty bad when you consider that much of the 70s and early 80s were dominated by "pitching, defense, and the 3 run homer" approach. A big bopper out there might help but a single big bat (or consistent small bat from Holt) is not going to turn that by much. Despite some signs of life from Bradley after his GWRBI in Atlanta he's now struck out in 10 of his last 14 PA; Sizemore got the start over him last night. Pedroia is warming a little but unless he really does get "hotter than Tent City" then he's headed for the worst offensive season of his career. Drew (via Boras) negotiated that his prep time would last no more than the required minimum of 10 days and got off to a 1-for-14 start... which, sadly, is little worse than the regular (WMB) he's effectively replacing on the left side of the IF. Lester and Lackey are typically pitching well but otherwise the Sox don't have a league-average starter (3-5 have ERA+ of 86, 58, and 80) and the trio given the SU roles (Miller, Mujica, Tazawa) have each flamed out in crucial moments.

That's where the Sox are. As Lav has said elsewhere, this group is MUCH more than one trade away from contention. I'm personally okay with that. I don't want to be embarrassed by them but I'm fine with an actual "bridge" year that builds on the development of Bogaerts, Bradley, RDLR, Workman, and eventually Webster and Vazquez to become truly competitive in 2015 and beyond. My main thesis here is that the Sox must proceed cautiously with their trades to set themselves up well for the future (e.g., deal Lackey after signing Lester).

theGhost-isGone
06-10-2014, 09:51 AM
I hope he's just clueless. You have to use this failed season as a great opportunity to build the team long term. I can understand keeping Lackey, though I think you would be missing out on a terrific deal. Trading Koji is just too obvious a thing to do given his age. If they don't sign or trade Lester that is a complete failure

100% agree. The only way we're buyers come the deadline is by acquiring a prospect that's close to the majors, which should be something we can accomplish. That's why I'm curious who we may be targeting, or what position we could bolster. I'd start with a corner outfielder, doesn't have to be Stanton but I doubt he's going anywhere this season anyway.

GrkGawdofWalkz
06-10-2014, 10:16 AM
Gut it like it's hot. It's the Red Sox theme this season.

RedSoxtober
06-10-2014, 02:31 PM
Just worth keeping in mind when considering what to do with Lackey. He's clearly reluctant to commit to pitching next year "for free" (forget the fact that he did nothing for a full year's salary in 2012). Any team interested in acquiring him is going to have to weigh this as part of the acquisition.


“Probably not, actually,” Lackey said of whether he’s given any consideration to the possibility of free agency. “The way I’m pitching now, I’m probably not going to be a free agent. It’s not something I’ve really gone that far ahead and thought about. There’s a lot of things I’m going to have to think about at the end of the season, the way that’s structured and that sort of thing. So, we’ll see.”

While Lackey agreed to the contract structure that would potentially have him in line to make rookie money, the right-hander expressed some pause about the idea of actually doing so. He didn’t draw lines in the sand, but he also stopped short of saying unequivocally that he would pitch for the Red Sox next year even if it meant doing so at a salary of roughly $500,000.

“I haven’t thought that far ahead. Just thinking about pitching right now. It’s definitely something I’ll have to think about at the end of the season, whether I want to keep going, whether ‘€¦ ,” Lackey trailed off. “There will be a lot of things to consider.”

Of course, given the level at which Lackey’s performed since his return from Tommy John, and his enjoyment of pitching while once again healthy and strong (“I’m having a blast,” he said), it’s hard to fathom the idea that he’d willingly walk way from pitching after this year.weei.com

cocossox
06-10-2014, 07:48 PM
I think we should trade Drew, maybe Det. or Mets

Station 13
06-10-2014, 08:07 PM
I think we should trade Drew, maybe Det. or Mets

Why would NY wants Drew? They're going nowhere.

Bo Sox Fan
06-10-2014, 09:01 PM
- It costs absolutely nothing in prospects to run out Lester, Shields & Lackey as our top 3 next season. Spend the money this winter.

- Koji is pushing 40 but is arguably the best closer in baseball right now. Contact the Detroit Tigers and see what we can get. He would definately put them over the top come the post season this year.

- Middlebrooks, Buchholz, Peavy & Miller are all bait despite being at there lowest value. All 4 should not be a part of the 2015 Boston Red Sox roster. Cecchini, Webster & De La Rosa I'd throw in a Stanton deal this winter along with a couple other pieces. Doubront is not untouchable either.

bagwell368
06-10-2014, 10:27 PM
Sox worried about ticket sales for next year. Expect a couple of moderate/small moves to bring players in - to preserve the mindset that says we are still in it.

At the deadline we'll move a few players that fans don't care about, again demonstrating that these are the Sox, and we don't just pack it in.

I would like much stronger action, but I don't think we'll see it.

Nomar
06-10-2014, 11:28 PM
Sox worried about ticket sales for next year. Expect a couple of moderate/small moves to bring players in - to preserve the mindset that says we are still in it.

At the deadline we'll move a few players that fans don't care about, again demonstrating that these are the Sox, and we don't just pack it in.

I would like much stronger action, but I don't think we'll see it.

This is how I see it.

I think he won't be moved because everyone loves him, but we could absolutely rob a team by trading Koji.

RedSoxtober
06-10-2014, 11:48 PM
- Koji is pushing 40 but is arguably the best closer in baseball right now. Contact the Detroit Tigers and see what we can get. He would definately put them over the top come the post season this year.
Might be a very good matchup. Maybe take Steven Moya back?


- Middlebrooks, Buchholz, Peavy & Miller are all bait despite being at there lowest value. All 4 should not be a part of the 2015 Boston Red Sox roster. Cecchini, Webster & De La Rosa I'd throw in a Stanton deal this winter along with a couple other pieces. Doubront is not untouchable either.
I don't think that Miller's value is that low. He had one unfortunate week where he took 4 late losses (1 where he allowed a BR but Badenhop gave up the gwrbi) but otherwise he's been pretty good. 40K in 25IP and a LHP will always bring value at the deadline. BTW, he's a FA this year so the chances are probably 50-50 at best that he'd be back next year. Somehow I bet someone outbids us for him.

RedSoxtober
06-10-2014, 11:52 PM
Sox worried about ticket sales for next year. Expect a couple of moderate/small moves to bring players in - to preserve the mindset that says we are still in it.

At the deadline we'll move a few players that fans don't care about, again demonstrating that these are the Sox, and we don't just pack it in.

I would like much stronger action, but I don't think we'll see it.

I'm really in a wait and see mode with them. They clearly "leaked" the FO position that the team gets no resources if they don't start performing. No doubt they're laying the ground work to do little (at least not buying, albeit not selling either).

I think the Drew scenario is actually playing to their advantage in terms of either doing nothing or selling a piece or two. They have, can, and will point out how his arrival coincided with another tailspin, dislodging a white hot Bogaerts and delaying some experience at SS, etc. The logic can spin out the idea that buying can cause problems (Drew, Gagne, Bedard) just as often as it can provide answers (Peavy, Nomar/Mientkiewicz-Cabrera).

Nomar
06-11-2014, 12:41 AM
Moya is a worse version of Bryce Brentz. No way would that be a good deal.

RedSoxtober
06-11-2014, 11:40 AM
Moya is a worse version of Bryce Brentz. No way would that be a good deal.

BA has Moya both the Tigers best power bat and their best OF arm. If true it's not that bad a combination and certainly better than Brentz (25). Moya is also young (22 in AA) and his power has been increasing gradually as his body has matured physically. His k-rate and bb-rate are a concern.

The downside of a deal with DET is that all their best prospects are pitchers with a few MIF. We're organizationally strong in those areas already. Maybe it makes sense to bring in an arm or two that MIA likes...

RedSoxtober
06-11-2014, 11:59 AM
While it's easy to look at the Red Sox and identify a pressing short- and long-term need for a bat in the lineup, the team's unsettled pitching staff has considerable implications for how it approaches the trade market. Given the hellacious cost of acquiring pitching in the offseason (there is no "free" in free agency), the fact that the Sox could have multiple rotation vacancies to fill beyond this year suggests that they may be compelled to remain engaged in the trade market for pitchers in the coming months, regardless of where they are in the standings. Much as the team did in acquiring Peavy prior to last year's deadline, the Sox may look to stay ahead of long-term pitching needs between now and July 31. weei.com

cocossox
06-11-2014, 06:12 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/06/cherington-on-outfield-drew-lester-lackey.html

Sounds like we ride with what we got, not my choice but I don't run things.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-12-2014, 05:21 PM
now I have ZERO idea if this is legal/Within rules...Just curious..

The red sox this season is done. However, Is it within rules to tell Lester that they will trade him to a contender by the deadline but will offer X amount of years with X amount of money after the season. Basically have a "gentlemen's" agreement on an extension after the season?

Obviously that has risk as the new team would have first dibs and could offer a contract he couldn't refuse. Just curious, that's all.

Because wouldn't that be a dream scenario...Get Lester after the season with 2 top prospects for merely "lending" lester for a few months.

goshhhjosh
06-12-2014, 07:29 PM
now I have ZERO idea if this is legal/Within rules...Just curious..

The red sox this season is done. However, Is it within rules to tell Lester that they will trade him to a contender by the deadline but will offer X amount of years with X amount of money after the season. Basically have a "gentlemen's" agreement on an extension after the season?

Obviously that has risk as the new team would have first dibs and could offer a contract he couldn't refuse. Just curious, that's all.

Because wouldn't that be a dream scenario...Get Lester after the season with 2 top prospects for merely "lending" lester for a few months.

Not being a jerk, but I honestly don't know if you meant to put this in the 2014 Draft Class thread.

Then the Red Sox would also be giving that team a draft pick and losing their own...so no, don't think it's worth it.

EDIT: My mistake regarding the draft pick, RedSoxtober and AI clarified this.

AI
06-12-2014, 07:32 PM
Not being a jerk, but I honestly don't know if you meant to put this in the 2014 Draft Class thread.

Then the Red Sox would also be giving that team a draft pick and losing their own...so no, don't think it's worth it.

You can't offer a QO to a player you received midseason.

RedSoxtober
06-12-2014, 09:50 PM
now I have ZERO idea if this is legal/Within rules...Just curious..

The red sox this season is done. However, Is it within rules to tell Lester that they will trade him to a contender by the deadline but will offer X amount of years with X amount of money after the season. Basically have a "gentlemen's" agreement on an extension after the season?

Sure you could do this if you wanted to. You can say anything that you want to with a player who is under contract with you. As soon as the trade goes down though... there are no guarantees that a gentlemen's agreement will be honored by either side. A club could, for example, make such an agreement to a player to get them to waive an NTC and then not re-sign him in the offseason. There are lots of ways such a thing could break down so I doubt it would carry any weight.


Not being a jerk, but I honestly don't know if you meant to put this in the 2014 Draft Class thread.

Then the Red Sox would also be giving that team a draft pick and losing their own...so no, don't think it's worth it.

(Note: I moved the related comments here) Players have to remain with the same team for an entire season in order to receive draft pick compensation so they would not have to worry about that after trading him.

RedSoxtober
06-13-2014, 12:11 PM
Lester is gone after this season. You know that, I know that, Lester knows that and John Henry sure as hell knows that. The four-year, $70 million offer Lester reportedly received is probably two years and $70 million short of what he'll eventually get from some team dopey enough to throw $150 million at a pitcher in his 30s. Long-term contracts for huge money to guys in their 30s don't work. There is no track record, zero, of success, but that won't stop some team from overpaying Lester, who has been a very good pitcher but has finished in the top 10 in AL WHIP once in his career.

He's now 30 years old and I think we can finally all get together and agree that the 22-6, 2.60 ERA from Lester is never going to happen. He's 16-8, 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. No shame in that. It's already made him $43 million and is about to make him $150 million or so more. But raise your hand if you think the Lester of the last six years was worth $25 million a year. I don't think so, either, and those were his prime years. Why, exactly, is he going to suddenly be worth that dough at age 35, 36 or even 37? Henry has made it clear that the days of the huge, long-term deals to players in their 30s are done. That's the right philosophy, of course, having the discipline to stick to the philosophy is tricky. But the lowball offer to Lester is proof that the Red Sox are willing to move on, which should also mean they are willing to deal him for the right offer. And it's hard to believe Lester wouldn't be THE prize multiple teams would be chasing at the end of July.

Now, if the Red Sox don't trade Lester they'd get a compensation pick if he signs somewhere else (a pick the team that trades for Lester wouldn't receive if he left). So the question is this: Is a pick somewhere in the 30s of the '15 draft worth more than the Red Sox could land if they trade Lester? That's hard to imagine -- even with the prospect of just a three-month rental, a bidding war would have to mean a couple of serious prospects. Think a power-hitting outfielder might be a help over the next couple of years (remember the Wil Myers for Lester rumors from November 2012)? Plus this: Lester is a perfect, central-casting deadline acquisition for a team that's this close. He's as durable as they come, he's pitching for a contract and he's one of the two or three best playoff pitchers of his generation. He could easily be the difference between winning or not winning a World Series for one of these teams in October.Boston Herald

Emotionally I can't quite get into this. Lester is a standup guy with a great track record, a workhorse in the rotation, and his playoff resume is amazing. BUT if the logic is correct -- that he's gone after this season? Well, it makes a decent case for extending Lackey. Lester's average season is 16-9, 3.73 including his stinker in 2012. Lackey is no slouch at 15-11, 4.01 but that includes two years in which he pitched with elbow trouble in BOS with the historically bad 2011 (the 6.41 ERA is one of the all time worst with a pitcher over 150IP). Since surgery he's at a 3.41 ERA, 3.58FIP, 1.177WHIP and should match that 16-9 pace (he's actually at .500 thanks to lousy run support last year. Over the same period Lester has a slightly better FIP (3.43) but loses out on the other metrics.

I don't WANT to believe it but the best course of action may be to trade Lester and leverage Lackey's 2015 option into an inexpensive $36M/3yr or so deal (replacing the 2015 option). The Sox get a vet to lead the kids whose deal expires as the kids hit their arb years and the deal has less risk of being an albatross.

goshhhjosh
06-13-2014, 02:21 PM
You can't offer a QO to a player you received midseason.


Sure you could do this if you wanted to. You can say anything that you want to with a player who is under contract with you. As soon as the trade goes down though... there are no guarantees that a gentlemen's agreement will be honored by either side. A club could, for example, make such an agreement to a player to get them to waive an NTC and then not re-sign him in the offseason. There are lots of ways such a thing could break down so I doubt it would carry any weight.



(Note: I moved the related comments here) Players have to remain with the same team for an entire season in order to receive draft pick compensation so they would not have to worry about that after trading him.

Thanks for the information guys. My mistake.

BCpatsox18
06-13-2014, 03:07 PM
To Dodgers: Jon Lester, AJ

To Red Sox: Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Zach Lee

SirHizz
06-13-2014, 07:15 PM
To Dodgers: Jon Lester, AJ

To Red Sox: Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Zach Lee

I doubt it. They have a surplus of OF, but none of them is great playing n Center (and we have Jackie Jr. - if they trade for Joc, it basically means we have given up on him.) But why not, the Dodgers will want something to show for their huge investments. But plus Urias AND Lee? Wow, they wouldn't even trade those guys in a package for someone under control for more years.
And lee? Nope, we don't need him, our AAA rotation is crowded.

Other teams make more sense. I can see either Detroit or Texas. Tigers because Lester would probably be willing to sign the contract they offered Scherzer. And Texas? They would be getting a better version of Garza this time and they finally need to get the job done [winning the WS]. The core ain't that bad, but Darvish needs help.
If we make Lester available, I believe that we will be receiving a substantial player in return. Teams know about Lester's durability, make-up (signability) and playoff success. Maybe even in a bigger trade along with koji. Can you imagine what those 2 guys will be worth? :drool:

BCpatsox18
06-14-2014, 10:47 AM
I doubt it. They have a surplus of OF, but none of them is great playing n Center (and we have Jackie Jr. - if they trade for Joc, it basically means we have given up on him.) But why not, the Dodgers will want something to show for their huge investments. But plus Urias AND Lee? Wow, they wouldn't even trade those guys in a package for someone under control for more years.
And lee? Nope, we don't need him, our AAA rotation is crowded.

Other teams make more sense. I can see either Detroit or Texas. Tigers because Lester would probably be willing to sign the contract they offered Scherzer. And Texas? They would be getting a better version of Garza this time and they finally need to get the job done [winning the WS]. The core ain't that bad, but Darvish needs help.
If we make Lester available, I believe that we will be receiving a substantial player in return. Teams know about Lester's durability, make-up (signability) and playoff success. Maybe even in a bigger trade along with koji. Can you imagine what those 2 guys will be worth? :drool:

I agree that the AAA rotation is crowded, but you can never have enough pitching. The presence of Lee and Urias would allow the sox to trade some of the other guys for a young outfield bat. And three top prospects for a borderline ace and a reliable backstop isn't asking for too much IMO, look at what the jays gave up for Dickey

Nomar
06-14-2014, 12:07 PM
Urias would be tough to pry from LA. Tough to see them trading him for someone who they'd have to dish out another huge deal to.

Wojo
06-14-2014, 01:24 PM
The Sox have 1 of the smallest stadiums in all of baseball with 1 of the most fanatic fan bases. I think if any team could endure a total rebuild it would be them.

Trade any and every veteran player , not named Pedroia or Ortiz, for any prospect you can get.

This team will not make the playoffs this year....has 1 of, if not, the best farm systems in baseball and could add to it considerably by trading veterans, especially Lester, to playoff contenders.

It's all about next year at this point.

Nomar
06-14-2014, 01:54 PM
You can't lose both of Lester/Lackey for next year. We'd be screwed no matter what if we did.

In 2012 we were a top 5 offense before the big LA trade, and it didn't stop us from being one of the worst teams in baseball. We need to have a #1 starter. Even if all of our SP prospects pan out, which they won't, we'd still need that go to veteran in the rotation.

Wojo
06-14-2014, 02:53 PM
Sox will have the $ to sign any 2 or 3 free agents they choose this offseason.

A. Keep Lester and hope to resign him. Keep Lackey.

B. Sign Scherzer and/or Shields and/or Masterson and get prospects for Lester and Lackey.

I have the utmost respect for Lester but it seems the offer the Sox made to him for a discounted extension insulted him....not that I have any inside perspective, just my gut feeling.

Sox have the $ to get 2 top notch pitchers, even if its Shields and Masterson, and get some good specs from teams pushing either for the playoffs or if they are in the playoffs a possible world series run, where they always will overpay for a pitcher.....especially Lester.....a proven playoff winner year in and year out.

This is gonna be a huge decision on the part of Sox executives, the opportunities this year are very unique with regards to the Sox record, trade chips, free agents available this off season, and $ available to spend on them.

It's like the perfect storm of rebuild opportunities, this rebuild could be for only half a season tho if the cards are played correctly.

Nomar
06-14-2014, 03:49 PM
With marte, cutch, and polanco as their long term OF, Our old friend Josh Bell may be available from the pirates. Could add some COF power to our system.

Nomar
06-14-2014, 04:18 PM
Wojo, we can't bank on signing Scherzer or Shields IMO, and I think a lot of less understanding fans would be beyond mad if we traded Lester and Lackey. Ticket sales matter a lot, I just for see us having the stones to do something like that.

I think people expecting something huge around the deadline will be disappointed. I think trading Koji is a smart move though.

win red sox
06-15-2014, 12:59 PM
With marte, cutch, and polanco as their long term OF, Our old friend Josh Bell may be available from the pirates. Could add some COF power to our system.

Bell is one of my favorite prospects and so im partial, but if the Sox are sellers it would make sense to dangle Lackey for Bell and maybe Kingham.

Nomar
06-15-2014, 09:24 PM
We'd get a good amount more than that for Lackey actually given the market for SPs.

RedSoxtober
06-18-2014, 02:17 PM
FWIW, Samarzdija is 2-2 (team 2-3), 5.90ERA, .297/.344/.475 against since Memorial Day. I should have checked previous splits as a SP earlier; last year he had similar stats through May (2.85ERA, .196/.268/.313, 6.44 H/9) and finished 5-7 (team 9-13), 5.11ERA, .284/.352/.458 against the rest of the way. The 2012 post-Memorial Day results were similar but somewhat better. Seems to be a trend.

Station 13
06-18-2014, 02:43 PM
Are the Royals system deep? They could use a boost in their rotation.

RedSoxtober
06-19-2014, 08:15 AM
Are the Royals system deep? They could use a boost in their rotation.

Top 10 farm (generally 7-9) with the top talent being pitching.

RedSoxtober
06-19-2014, 12:02 PM
Lackey, who has been Boston’€™s most consistent pitcher this season (8-4, 2.96 ERA), is under contract for next year for a league-minimum $500,000 because he missed a season due to injury. There has been speculation that Lackey will threaten retirement or leave for an international league if his contract is not modified for next season –“ a scenario that Cherington did not seem to be too worried about.

“€œMy feeling about John is that he’s an outstanding competitor, outstanding teammate,” Cherington said. “He’s been an excellent pitcher and a huge part of our success last year and he’s been outstanding this year. … I would expect he’s going to want to continue [playing for Boston]. The contract is the contract. We agreed to a contract back in 2010, whenever it was, and when you agree to a contract, both sides venture into it.

“€œThere’s really not much more to say about it. We’re glad he’€™s with us and we expect him to continue pitching next year.”BC on weei.com

bagwell368
06-19-2014, 09:32 PM
Lackey isn't pitching for $500k. Best case he gets an extension to paper over it - or he retires and plays elsewhere.

win red sox
06-19-2014, 11:30 PM
If the Red Sox decide there sellers this year, I would assume that Lackey would have more value than Price or Samardzija due to the team that receives him can probably resign him to a reasonable contract and he is arguably is having a better year than both. I would only trade him though if the sox had a contract in place with Lester.

grandsalami
06-20-2014, 03:33 AM
We make a trade within the next 3 weeks

bagwell368
06-20-2014, 06:31 AM
We make a trade within the next 3 weeks

Stan Papi?

Station 13
06-20-2014, 09:34 AM
Lackey isn't pitching for $500k. Best case he gets an extension to paper over it - or he retires and plays elsewhere.

he can't play in Japan. The CBA prohibit that. He has to pitch next year to get his last pay day. Sitting out doesn't help.

Let's just give him a contract extension 2/25M+ with an option 15M / or 5M buyout.

BoSox47
06-20-2014, 09:57 AM
I think fans have to realize that last year might have been one of the biggest flukes in sports history with us winning the world series. This teams is going to be bad for a few years. Veterans on the team are too old/ declining (ortiz/victorino/pedroia) JBJ/WMB are going to amount to nothing for this team. The transition is happening now and anyone who has relative value should be gone that wont be with us in the future when we are good again(Lackey, Koji, Holt, pierzynski, JBJ, WMB, Badenhop)

RedSoxtober
06-20-2014, 11:00 AM
^^ You could also make the case that THIS year is one of the bigger flukes in sports history, it just feels differently because the trend is in the opposite direction. Consider the OPS+ of the lineup by position:



Position
Career
2013
2014


C
95
118
87


1B
127
128
122


2B
116
115
102


SS
98
111
125 (est)


3B
99
87
95 (est)


LF
110
109
94


CF
108
113
64


RF
103
118
73


DH
139
159
126



At most positions players were right around their career norms while a handful were well above their career marks. It was very unusual that no one was below their career numbers (save WMB who was obviously weighted by a strong partial rookie year). This year is just the opposite; almost every single position is looking up at their career mark from below and most are not simply off but trending towards career-worst seasons. An individual team with its entire lineup hitting at career worst numbers is, I believe, just as statistically unlikely and unique in sports as every player in the lineup hitting on career-best numbers.

BoSox47
06-20-2014, 11:13 AM
^^ You could also make the case that THIS year is one of the bigger flukes in sports history, it just feels differently because the trend is in the opposite direction. Consider the OPS+ of the lineup by position:



Position
Career
2013
2014


C
95
118
87


1B
127
128
122


2B
116
115
102


SS
98
111
125 (est)


3B
99
87
95 (est)


LF
110
109
94


CF
108
113
64


RF
103
118
73


DH
139
159
126



At most positions players were right around their career norms while a handful were well above their career marks. It was very unusual that no one was below their career numbers (save WMB who was obviously weighted by a strong partial rookie year). This year is just the opposite; almost every single position is looking up at their career mark from below and most are not simply off but trending towards career-worst seasons. An individual team with its entire lineup hitting at career worst numbers is, I believe, just as statistically unlikely and unique in sports as every player in the lineup hitting on career-best numbers.

Could look at it that way, however, EVERYONE thought we were going to suck last year. We were projected by everyone to be at the bottom of the division.

How is everyone around their career norms?

Below- Pedroia/papi/pierzynski/nava/gomes/WMB/Victorino/Peavy/Doubront

Thats pretty much the core of the team, all decently below their career averages.

RedSoxtober
06-20-2014, 12:24 PM
Could look at it that way, however, EVERYONE thought we were going to suck last year. We were projected by everyone to be at the bottom of the division.

How is everyone around their career norms?

Below- Pedroia/papi/pierzynski/nava/gomes/WMB/Victorino/Peavy/Doubront

Thats pretty much the core of the team, all decently below their career averages.

Sorry, the first sentence was ambiguous. LAST YEAR everyone was right around their career numbers with a handful above (that's why it was all past tense). The rest of the post says just what you said -- this year they are significantly under. Both the exceptional performance last year and the well-below norms performance this year are equally unlikely outcomes.

As for the sense that everyone picked them for last place in 2013? Many/most MLB folks picked them to win the division again this year. Again, similar expectation (one end of the table) but reversed.

ricomactaco
06-20-2014, 01:10 PM
Anyone hear that Tomas from Cuba is coming over? he is supposed to be a big time power hitter only 23 yo. I can see the sox going after this guy hard with our lack of power hitting. probably won't be available till next year though

RedSoxtober
06-20-2014, 05:24 PM
Random shot here...

Braves just lost Gavin Floyd, possibly for the season
Victorino was scratched from what was supposed to be the start of 3 straight rehab games yesterday due to 'general stiffness'
Sox have some pitchers to offer


Idea: Peavy + Nava for Jason Heyward
Explanation: Sox provide a serviceable replacement for Heyward in the OF plus pitching depth that Atlanta was desperate to find in the offseason due to injuries. In return they take a gamble on Heyward who can be the primary RF while SV works his way back and then play mix-and-match if/when he makes it to BOS. Possible power return with a change of scenery? Sox would get one year of Heyward ($7.8M) before he hits FA with the possible 2015 OF of SV in LF, Bradley in CF and Heyward in RF. Net loss of 2yrs of control in the OF.

BostonSports96
06-20-2014, 05:46 PM
Random shot here...

Braves just lost Gavin Floyd, possibly for the season
Victorino was scratched from what was supposed to be the start of 3 straight rehab games yesterday due to 'general stiffness'
Sox have some pitchers to offer


Idea: Peavy + Nava for Jason Heyward
Explanation: Sox provide a serviceable replacement for Heyward in the OF plus pitching depth that Atlanta was desperate to find in the offseason due to injuries. In return they take a gamble on Heyward who can be the primary RF while SV works his way back and then play mix-and-match if/when he makes it to BOS. Possible power return with a change of scenery? Sox would get one year of Heyward ($7.8M) before he hits FA with the possible 2015 OF of SV in LF, Bradley in CF and Heyward in RF. Net loss of 2yrs of control in the OF.

Doubt Atlanta does that with how bad both Nava (.593 OPS) and Peavy (4.73 FIP) have been this season, and the fact that Heyward is a fan favorite. Also, Atlanta is still in the playoff hunt with how weak the NL East is, and downgrading from Heyward to Nava hurts those chances.

I would do it, Atlanta wouldn't.

RedSoxtober
06-20-2014, 09:59 PM
Doubt Atlanta does that with how bad both Nava (.593 OPS) and Peavy (4.73 FIP) have been this season,
Since returning from PAW where he went to get his swing back on track Nava is hitting .277/.370/.340. That's not terribly far off from Heyward this year (.260/.345/.391); less power but better getting on base.


and the fact that Heyward is a fan favorite. Also, Atlanta is still in the playoff hunt with how weak the NL East is, and downgrading from Heyward to Nava hurts those chances.

I would do it, Atlanta wouldn't.

It's the playoff chances that push in favor of the deal. They just lost one of the bigger contributors to the rotation (Floyd), most likely for the rest of the year. They could turn back to Alex Wood but that's a lot of weight on the rookie's shoulders. Is losing a bit of OPS worth getting a pitcher with playoff experience for a run at the playoffs? Will the other pitchers who might be available to them offer better alternatives at a similar or better price?

The deal is not optimal for either side but it might make sense for both.

BostonSports96
06-20-2014, 11:47 PM
It's the playoff chances that push in favor of the deal. They just lost one of the bigger contributors to the rotation (Floyd), most likely for the rest of the year. They could turn back to Alex Wood but that's a lot of weight on the rookie's shoulders. Is losing a bit of OPS worth getting a pitcher with playoff experience for a run at the playoffs? Will the other pitchers who might be available to them offer better alternatives at a similar or better price?

The deal is not optimal for either side but it might make sense for both.

If Cherington called Atlanta with that deal, I guarantee you they'd hang up after giving it 10 second of thought.

-Lavigne43-
06-20-2014, 11:58 PM
I think you are seriously underestimating Heyward's trade value. If Atlanta traded him it would be similar to the Justin Upton deal, probably more considering how underwhelming that deal was viewed for Arizona. Lackey as the major league talent in that trade would make more sense in Atlanta's perspective.

RedSoxtober
06-22-2014, 03:14 PM
131, (98), 117, 113, 103.

For all the love that Heyward gets those are his season OPS+ numbers. Regressing as you approach your prime is a poor trend. IMO he's not dissimilar from Buchholz; the promising talent is there but thus far it's only presented itself in flashes at the MLB level.

Upton had two 25+ HR seasons and was considered to be up-and-down because of maturity issues. Teams could reasonably believe that they could coach him out of that or that he'd eventually grow out of it. Heyward? Never heard a complaint about his underwhelming (to expectations) performance. Seems to simply be an assumption that he is the 130+ OPS+ guy that he was in his sensational rookie season even though the results do not prove that to be the case.

win red sox
06-23-2014, 12:28 AM
Atlanta has received minimal offensive production from CF and 3b, I wonder if a Nava, Peavy, Gomes, and Holt for Heyward would work.

1) Atlanta could platoon Nava and Gomes in Lf
Gomes ops vs LH is .861
Nava since being called up has a .368 obp

2) Holt could spell Johnson .586 ops vs RH at 3b and BJ Upton in cf .645 ops vs RH

3) Peavy is what he is, back end of the rotation starter who battles.

The Sox for the rest of 2014 could platoon WMB, Cecchini, SV, Carp in Lf. This could make sense for Atlanta if they believe that Holt could play an adequate CF and 3b and Nava's return obp will be sustained moving forward.

bagwell368
06-23-2014, 06:24 AM
I think fans have to realize that last year might have been one of the biggest flukes in sports history with us winning the world series. This teams is going to be bad for a few years. Veterans on the team are too old/ declining (ortiz/victorino/pedroia) JBJ/WMB are going to amount to nothing for this team. The transition is happening now and anyone who has relative value should be gone that wont be with us in the future when we are good again(Lackey, Koji, Holt, pierzynski, JBJ, WMB, Badenhop)

I agree WMB is almost for sure a wash out. Not so fast on JBJ. Sox were tres stupid not to get a vet RHH to start the season in CF so JBJ could be relieved from full time responsibility/pressure. Nobody that fields like him in the OF will ever be a total washout.

Bad for a few years? You mean under .500? No This team will not be under .500 in '15 and '16 both. Might win 84 and 87 however - not enough for the playoffs.

bagwell368
06-23-2014, 06:42 AM
Heyward? Sort of slacker version of Dwight Evans. Good power, great glove, very good OBP (Fenway could really help him there, and 2B's counts) doesn't steal bases well. Overrated. The Braves don't usually lose deals, so expect to pay well for him. Would fit nicely in RF in Fenway.

SV could back-up all OF positions and platoon in CF (when he's healthy of course).... Carp comes out of deep storage. Still need a masher in LF. Betts? Stanton? Kemp?

GrkGawdofWalkz
06-23-2014, 07:01 AM
Heyward? Sort of slacker version of Dwight Evans. Good power, great glove, very good OBP (Fenway could really help him there, and 2B's counts) doesn't steal bases well. Overrated. The Braves don't usually lose deals, so expect to pay well for him. Would fit nicely in RF in Fenway.

SV could back-up all OF positions and platoon in CF (when he's healthy of course).... Carp comes out of deep storage. Still need a masher in LF. Betts? Stanton? Kemp?

Love the Dwight Evans comp. I have always been a fan of Heyward's tools. However, he's never put it all in on the field. He does seem like a bit of a slacker with the way he plays. That could change if and when he ever gets traded. I would definitely prefer paying a premium to get him versus someone like Kemp.

RedSoxtober
06-23-2014, 02:25 PM
According to a major league source, there is “nothing going on” regarding the Red Sox and a possible acquisition of Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp.

There had been reports that the Sox were heavily scouting Los Angeles, with Kemp as a potential target. But while the Red Sox continue to explore multiple avenues in regard to upgrading their outfield’s offensive production, according to the source there is no momentum regarding any deal involving the Dodgers outfielder.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti told The Boston Globe that Kemp is not on the market.

Moving Kemp would, however, seem to make sense for the Dodgers, who are juggling the playing time of Yasiel Puig, Scott Van Slyke, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford. The right-handed-hitting Kemp will have five years and $107 million on his current deal after the 2014 season.

The 29-year-old is hitting .278 with seven home runs and a .793 OPS. He has been hot as of late, hitting .410 with a 1.106 OPS in his last 10 games.

As for the possibility of the Red Sox acquiring Ethier, another major league source told WEEI.com at the end of May that the Red Sox didn’t have interest in the lefty hitter.weei.com

Bos_Sports4Life
06-23-2014, 04:00 PM
I understand the "need" for a masher, but kemp?

* According to WAR he has declined every season since 2011.

Legs are gone, his defense stinks anywhere other than LF, His bat isn't remotely close to what it once was, He's declining at a pretty rapid rate AND you are stuck with him and his contract until 2020 for 22 Mill a season.

Sure, at fenway? You MIGHT get a couple .800ish OPS seasons...but no way he makes his money. MAYBE he earns 1/2.

Bo Sox Fan
06-23-2014, 05:29 PM
I could live with a terrible outfield offensively for the rest of the season and possibly all of 2015 if it means we land Stanton in a year and a half to play left field in Fenway for the rest of his life.

The challenge right now should be to find a permanent right fielder for the future. There are a few free agent options this winter and next. There is the trade route and there is Mookie Betts, who I hope is a legitimate option who makes the transition smoothly at some point soon allowing Pedroia to stay.

Nomar
06-23-2014, 08:03 PM
Atlanta has received minimal offensive production from CF and 3b, I wonder if a Nava, Peavy, Gomes, and Holt for Heyward would work.

1) Atlanta could platoon Nava and Gomes in Lf
Gomes ops vs LH is .861
Nava since being called up has a .368 obp

2) Holt could spell Johnson .586 ops vs RH at 3b and BJ Upton in cf .645 ops vs RH

3) Peavy is what he is, back end of the rotation starter who battles.

The Sox for the rest of 2014 could platoon WMB, Cecchini, SV, Carp in Lf. This could make sense for Atlanta if they believe that Holt could play an adequate CF and 3b and Nava's return obp will be sustained moving forward.

You'd at least have to throw I'm Cecchini or like WMB+Ranaudo

bagwell368
06-24-2014, 06:13 AM
I could live with a terrible outfield offensively for the rest of the season and possibly all of 2015 if it means we land Stanton in a year and a half to play left field in Fenway for the rest of his life.

The challenge right now should be to find a permanent right fielder for the future. There are a few free agent options this winter and next. There is the trade route and there is Mookie Betts, who I hope is a legitimate option who makes the transition smoothly at some point soon allowing Pedroia to stay.

Mookie in RF in Fenway? Doubt that, he hasn't the arm for it.

bagwell368
06-24-2014, 06:17 AM
I understand the "need" for a masher, but kemp?

* According to WAR he has declined every season since 2011.

Legs are gone, his defense stinks anywhere other than LF, His bat isn't remotely close to what it once was, He's declining at a pretty rapid rate AND you are stuck with him and his contract until 2020 for 22 Mill a season.

Sure, at fenway? You MIGHT get a couple .800ish OPS seasons...but no way he makes his money. MAYBE he earns 1/2.

I think it's always been understood that the Dodgers were going to eat $6-8-10M a year depending on what specs they get back. Problem with Kemp in LF is that a likely destination for the likes of XB, Betts, or even GC - or dare we say Stanton.

I think as BSF said we have to concentrate on a RF solution, because LF will have no shortage of possibles.

BostonSports96
06-24-2014, 06:08 PM
I'm not in favor of adding Kemp AT ALL (hate the idea)....but if it were to happen, my guess is OF next season would be:

LF-Kemp, CF-Betts, RF-Victorino

Bench- JBJ, Carp/Nava

Nomar
06-24-2014, 08:59 PM
Kemp won't be coming here. Reports say we weren't impressed and it's easy to see why. We don't need a LF only guy who is slightly above average offensively.

-Lavigne43-
06-24-2014, 09:47 PM
Kemp just feels like a media contrived story

-Lavigne43-
06-25-2014, 01:24 AM
To get to 90 wins we would have to go 55-29 (.655). Sell! Sell! Sell! Anything else would be completely delusional and/or terrible decision making. Having a rotation for the rest of the season with Lester (with extension) and Rubby, Workman, Webster getting lots of starts would actually make me want to watch games.

maplecitymadman
06-25-2014, 02:39 AM
I agree with you 100%. Will Sox management come to that realization after this weekend when were swept by the Yankees?

RedSoxtober
06-25-2014, 09:58 AM
To get to 90 wins we would have to go 55-29 (.655). Sell! Sell! Sell! Anything else would be completely delusional and/or terrible decision making. Having a rotation for the rest of the season with Lester (with extension) and Rubby, Workman, Webster getting lots of starts would actually make me want to watch games.

I agree though I'd qualify a deal like I suggested earlier for Heyward or the Peavy deal last year as somewhere in the middle; it'd help this season but the real benefits would be for the future. I don't mind dealing for a decent vet with 1.5yrs or more under control. And while prospects are nice, you never know when someone will follow the Webster path, coming in with top-of-the-rotation swing-and-miss stuff and developing to the point that he looks more like mid-to-back of the rotation starter.

-Lavigne43-
06-25-2014, 10:53 AM
Young MLB players are fine, though the ones with a short positive track record can be overpriced in a trade. I'd love to gather more high end prospects so that we can flip some for MLB players later.

GrkGawdofWalkz
06-25-2014, 06:59 PM
Why do you people want Matt Kemp. That deal makes absolutely no sense. He's only going to breakdown again! So stupid. I get if he's practically free and costs nothing. Fine, but meh. No thanks.

GrkGawdofWalkz
06-25-2014, 07:00 PM
Give me a trade around Lackey, Lester with a young future star in the outfield. Give me some mix bag of stuff for Peavy, Drew etcetera.

Nomar
06-25-2014, 08:21 PM
Absolutely no chance Lester gets dealt realistically.

Lackey, SV, and Doubront could get dealt. WMB too but at this point he has no value. Don't really think Drew will get anything of value either.

Lackey is the guy tho. Gotta cash in on him even though he's a very valuable pitcher right now. Well miss him next year if we deal him, but he could net multiple impact players in a package.

RedSoxtober
06-25-2014, 09:40 PM
Boston’s lackluster performance this season has opened up the possibility of seeing some of the franchise’s most promising prospects, such as Christian Vasquez and Mookie Betts, getting the call up to the big leagues. Olney agreed that a Vasquez sighting in Boston could be very likely, especially given the struggles of A.J. Pierzynski this year.

“I don’t think there’s any question that they’re front and center with the question about Vasquez. … As of today, out of all catchers in baseball with at least 200 plate appearances, [Pierzynski] is dead last in OPS at .637. … A lot of times, teams will use an off-day to evaluate the situation, to make changes, to make adjustments, they’ve got that coming up,” Olney said. “They’ve got an important series against the Yankees and if you’re going to call up a strong-throwing catcher, this weekend is a good weekend to do it, because the Yankees like to run — fifth in the major leagues in stolen bases.

Olney continued: “On the other things, I don’t think there’s any question that Jake Peavy, with Clay Buchholz coming back, is probably on the firing line.”


While the Red Sox could look to the trade market as an avenue to upgrade their roster, such as trading for San Diego’s Seth Smith, Olney said that the prospects of acquiring an impact player do not seem likely for any team this season.

“I don’t think there’s any question that [Smith] us going to get moved and Gerardo Parra of the Arizona Diamondbacks could be a guy out there,” Olney said, adding: “When I speak to general managers and assistant general managers about the market and position players, they’re just shaking their heads. There’s going to be almost nothing out there. … I know that the Red Sox have asked questions around baseball about available hitters, but it doesn’t look like there’s going to be a lot of options.”

...

“I think Doubront would have some value, because right now a lot of teams are hearing the asking price on a Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs or David Price and they’re going, ‘Wow, that’s really steep.’ … I think, if you’re the Red Sox right now, you’ve got to forget what’s on the back of the baseball card and you’ve got to talk about what the results are right now. I do think Peavy would have some value to a National League team. … That’s probably a good fit for him. … I do think there probably would be a deal for the Red Sox where they would eat some of Peavy’s salary, not get much in return, but on their end, they would be able to open up a spot in their rotation.”Buster Olney on weei.com

-Lavigne43-
06-25-2014, 10:27 PM
Absolutely no chance Lester gets dealt realistically.

Lackey, SV, and Doubront could get dealt. WMB too but at this point he has no value. Don't really think Drew will get anything of value either.

Lackey is the guy tho. Gotta cash in on him even though he's a very valuable pitcher right now. Well miss him next year if we deal him, but he could net multiple impact players in a package.
If they don't sign him it would be complete and utter idiocy not to trade him. There's no sense in waiting until the end of the season to sign Lester. Lester said he was open to negotiating during the season, just get it done. Give him your best offer, and if he says no trade him. Letting him walk and only getting a draft pick would be complete incompetence.

I want Lester signed. It would be great to pawn Lackey off of Price. The Rays will be looking for the world for Price. Use this to make Lackey look like a great deal in comparison.

Bo Sox Fan
06-25-2014, 11:02 PM
It's truly amazing how the mindset with fans has changed with Lackey since he came back from tommy john surgery.

Originally his contract was a complete bust and we couldn't get rid of him if we tried... now he's a hell of a bargain who can bring in a nice haul of young talent in his mid 30's?

I'd say resign him under market value, after all Sox management have all the leverage with Lackey under there control in 2015. Give him 2 more years at $12 mil/per when he would otherwise command $18-$20 on the open market and probably get it over 3 years.

Lester is likely gone and I'd cringe to see this rotation without Lackey either.

BostonSports96
06-25-2014, 11:26 PM
Lester is likely gone and I'd cringe to see this rotation without Lackey either.

I really don't understand why people think Lester is gone. He's stated multiple times that he loves Boston and wants to stay, and that he would be open to extension talks mid-season.

I agree with Lavigne43, he deserves a big contract and we should give it to him. If he doesn't accept it, trade him. But I feel like something gets done, aces don't grow on trees, and we have one in our laps who is willing to sign an extension. I think (and hope) our FO realizes the importance Lester has to our rotation.

win red sox
06-25-2014, 11:59 PM
I kind of take a different angle with Lackey, in 2015 its reasonable to say that the sox will have at least 2 possibly 3 rookie position players on the opening day roster(Betts,Vasquez,Cecchini) and 2-3 rookies or first full season pitchers in the rotation. I would focus on building toward 2016 and use 2014 as opportunity to trade for as many assets as possible(cost controlled cof,1b,power arms). I would without a doubt sign Lester to extension as I wouldn't expect a huge drop in the next 4-5 years. In the case of Lackey, how effective do you think he will be in 2016?

RedSoxtober
06-26-2014, 08:56 AM
It's truly amazing how the mindset with fans has changed with Lackey since he came back from tommy john surgery.

Originally his contract was a complete bust and we couldn't get rid of him if we tried... now he's a hell of a bargain who can bring in a nice haul of young talent in his mid 30's?

I'm not sure why you consider the change "amazing". He literally had one of the worst seasons in MLB history (one of the ten worst ERAs for a SP with more than 150IP). Surgery provided the "why" behind the story and now he's putting up his second consecutive 116 ERA+ season. The change is simply a reflection of his performance (along with, I'm sure, a WS title and his willingness to pitch out of the pen enroute to it). His perception has always been related to his performance.

RedSoxtober
06-26-2014, 09:52 AM
Just wondering on perspectives here... any thought that the insistence on Doubront getting a start in the Cubs series has something to do with showcasing him to Theo? We have long experience with Epstein's love for his draftees and this seems to have continued with the number of former Sox who've ended up in the Windy City.

Any ideas of what we might take back? I'm wondering if they could use Doubront in a package targeting Vogelbach. Rizzo is signed long term and would seem to block him at 1B. Neither Rizzo nor Vogelbach has experience at any position other than 1B so a position change does not seem like the likely resolution.

RedSoxtober
06-26-2014, 12:50 PM
[Red Sox COO Sam] Kennedy said that trading away certain players and calling up prospects such as Mookie Betts, Christian Vasquez and Garin Cecchini certainly is a possibility if the team is unable to improve in the near future.weei.com

Patsfreak1776
06-26-2014, 03:57 PM
This team is absolutely abysmal. The fact that they are a winning streak away from taking control of the division is a joke. So now we will hear about all these "prospects" that will be good in 5-10 years.
Because that always pans out.

Bo Sox Fan
06-26-2014, 05:28 PM
This team is absolutely abysmal. The fact that they are a winning streak away from taking control of the division is a joke. So now we will hear about all these "prospects" that will be good in 5-10 years.
Because that always pans out.

I don't know about you but I'm pretty extatic about Owens, Betts and Bogaerts is already on his way to stardome.

In comparison Lester, Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez all panned out quite well don't you think? The future is rediculously bright I'd say.

-Lavigne43-
06-26-2014, 06:45 PM
Just wondering on perspectives here... any thought that the insistence on Doubront getting a start in the Cubs series has something to do with showcasing him to Theo? We have long experience with Epstein's love for his draftees and this seems to have continued with the number of former Sox who've ended up in the Windy City.

Any ideas of what we might take back? I'm wondering if they could use Doubront in a package targeting Vogelbach. Rizzo is signed long term and would seem to block him at 1B. Neither Rizzo nor Vogelbach has experience at any position other than 1B so a position change does not seem like the likely resolution.

They have done that before, I think it was Yamaico Navarro a couple years ago. I'd hate to sell low on Doubront, but at the same time I have to wonder if he is a serious injury waiting to happen with all his velocity drops.

taffi101
06-26-2014, 10:00 PM
Give me a trade around Lackey, Lester with a young future star in the outfield. Give me some mix bag of stuff for Peavy, Drew etcetera.

I have a hard time believing Lester will get dealt. It may make sense to do so, but I doubt it happens. Lackey, if I was a betting man, I would say around a 30% chance he is moved. If they deal Lackey, and lose Lester to free agency, which is a real possibility, leaves you with a rotation next season being lead by Buchholz, unless they go big for Scherzer or Sheilds, in which case they might as well pay Lester... tough decision either way.

AJ and Peavy I believe will be dealt, almost certainly, and possibly Uehara.....

taffi101
06-26-2014, 10:15 PM
This team is absolutely abysmal. The fact that they are a winning streak away from taking control of the division is a joke. So now we will hear about all these "prospects" that will be good in 5-10 years.
Because that always pans out.

I agree somewhat that this team is not great. Abysmal may be a tad strong, but that's your call.

While a winning streak might gain them control of the division, I tend to side with you on not holding my breath waiting for that to happen. This team just doesn't seem poised to go on a let's say 20-5 run or something along that line to hurdle past everyone....

As far as prospects panning out, I would have to say without looking, that the Red Sox have a top 5 minor league system, and that is always a plus.... obviously not all pan out, but a great deal of the Championship rosters the Sox have had, have been comprised of home grown talent....

Station 13
06-28-2014, 10:17 AM
I don't know why Lester is untouchable. He is a FA this winter. If they really want him, they will have to compete for him again. He isn't signing that extension.

win red sox
06-28-2014, 11:55 AM
Nava is killing it against RH again, Holt has been the best player on the team lately, and I would assume that the Sox want JBJ to keep getting AB's everyday. With Mookie coming there has to be a trade on the way.

Nomar
06-28-2014, 03:39 PM
Holt should be at 3B and Bogaerts should be at SS now that the season is pretty much done contention wise. Plenty of PT for Mookie in the OF, especially since Holt will be back to being a scrub soon.

win red sox
06-28-2014, 08:31 PM
Holt should be at 3B and Bogaerts should be at SS now that the season is pretty much done contention wise. Plenty of PT for Mookie in the OF, especially since Holt will be back to being a scrub soon.

this sounds right.

RedSoxtober
06-28-2014, 08:39 PM
I don't know why Lester is untouchable. He is a FA this winter. If they really want him, they will have to compete for him again. He isn't signing that extension.

Just because he isn't signing "that" extension it doesn't mean that he won't sign AN extension. He talked at length about reasons why he wanted to stay in Boston and the factors went well beyond playing on the field. If the Sox choose to make a reasonable offer then he'll sign.

Regardless, the fan support is going to be very important to the Sox heading into 2015. They'll need to keep him around to put fans in the seats and buoy morale within the base. Fans appreciate Lackey but they love the homegrown Lester. That's why he's untouchable.

win red sox
06-28-2014, 09:05 PM
Just because he isn't signing "that" extension it doesn't mean that he won't sign AN extension. He talked at length about reasons why he wanted to stay in Boston and the factors went well beyond playing on the field. If the Sox choose to make a reasonable offer then he'll sign.

Regardless, the fan support is going to be very important to the Sox heading into 2015. They'll need to keep him around to put fans in the seats and buoy morale within the base. Fans appreciate Lackey but they love the homegrown Lester. That's why he's untouchable.

I would feel a lot better about it if they sign him before the trade deadline.

ciaban
06-29-2014, 01:48 AM
If they don't sign him it would be complete and utter idiocy not to trade him. There's no sense in waiting until the end of the season to sign Lester. Lester said he was open to negotiating during the season, just get it done. Give him your best offer, and if he says no trade him. Letting him walk and only getting a draft pick would be complete incompetence.

I want Lester signed. It would be great to pawn Lackey off of Price. The Rays will be looking for the world for Price. Use this to make Lackey look like a great deal in comparison.

What would you want for him, and what do you expect to get for him knowing the team who trades for him can't make a qualifying offer in return.

Nomar
06-29-2014, 12:00 PM
What would you want for him, and what do you expect to get for him knowing the team who trades for him can't make a qualifying offer in return.

I think whoever trades for him will figure out an extension before finalizing the trade personally.

Highly doubt we trade him though. 90% sure

-Lavigne43-
06-29-2014, 12:27 PM
What would you want for him, and what do you expect to get for him knowing the team who trades for him can't make a qualifying offer in return.

Garza was in that situation last year and the Cubs got what was considered a heavy return. Lester is better than Garza and has no injury history. At the bare minimum it would have to be more value in return than that trade. I would want something like the James Shields trade, which I don't think is realistic. That would require a really desperate team, or an extension, or both.

Hopefully they just sign him.

ciaban
06-29-2014, 10:42 PM
Garza was in that situation last year and the Cubs got what was considered a heavy return. Lester is better than Garza and has no injury history. At the bare minimum it would have to be more value in return than that trade. I would want something like the James Shields trade, which I don't think is realistic. That would require a really desperate team, or an extension, or both.

Hopefully they just sign him.

I don't think wil myers is coming back for a partial season of lester.

RedSoxtober
06-30-2014, 11:07 AM
What would you want for him, and what do you expect to get for him knowing the team who trades for him can't make a qualifying offer in return.

This was part of the logic of the new system -- driving down prices to foster more movement at the deadline. The seller knows that the only value they'll get by keeping a player is a sandwich pick. The offer has to be better than that. Obviously how much better depends on the bidding and desperation of the teams involved.

I would imagine Lester could fetch two high ceiling prospects (but no one on the order of Myers as you say below) from a team. A team like KCR might sacrifice two prospects with a very high absolute value in order to get to their first playoffs in a lifetime. LAA, ATL, OAK not so much. LAD? Who knows?

RedSoxtober
06-30-2014, 01:14 PM
Reds signed LHP Scott Maine to a minor league contract; assigned him to Double-A Pensacola.
Maine was sporting a 4.95 ERA and 23/4 K/BB ratio in 20 innings this season for the Bridgeport Bluefish of the independent Atlantic League. The 29-year-old left-hander hasn't appeared in the majors since 2012.roto

Perhaps another team in need of pitching depth like Peavy/Doubront?