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View Full Version : Is the 4 pt play going to become the Normative in the League?



P&GRealist
05-04-2014, 02:31 PM
Analysts and fans are complaining about the stupidity of players and giving up the 4 pt play. But my thinking is that we will be seeing more of this going forward, and it's not really the player's faults. It's just part of the norm.


Think about it. Now it's like every other shot is a 3 pt attempt. Just a few yrs ago, 15 3 pt attempts in a game was considered too much. Now, it's like 25-30 3 pt attempts is the norm. With the ever increasing 3 pt attempts and players attempting so many and making 8-12 of them a game, aren't you bound to have a contested 3 that will go wrong?


Today's 3 pt shots made are like layups. When a guy is constantly going up for layups/dunks, aren't a lot of them fouled and put themselves in a position for a 3 pt play? Isn't that part of the norm? And isn't that was the basketball gurus call the "conventional" 3 pt player?



Well now, 3 pt shoots are like easy layups for many in the league. The Kyle Korver's, Mike Miller's, Kevin Durant's, James Hardens who will attempt 10-12 3 pters a game. Aren't you bound to get fouled on 1 of those attempts?


My argument is that this 4 pt play outrage is way overstated and that with the more attempts and makes from 3 pt land, and with 3 pt attempts comprising 70% of today's game, aren't you bound to get fouled at least once or twice from there?


Thoughts.

mngopher35
05-04-2014, 03:15 PM
Not sure about the outrage but what you are saying pretty much makes sense. The 4 point play still won't be as common as getting fould on a drive though as traveling through the lane is much more likely to draw a foul. But we should see more 4 point plays with 3's becoming a bigger part of the game, yes.

JEDean89
05-04-2014, 04:09 PM
um, yes. more 3 point attempts will logically lead to more 4 point plays.

Sssmush
05-04-2014, 08:57 PM
Analysts and fans are complaining about the stupidity of players and giving up the 4 pt play. But my thinking is that we will be seeing more of this going forward, and it's not really the player's faults. It's just part of the norm.


Think about it. Now it's like every other shot is a 3 pt attempt. Just a few yrs ago, 15 3 pt attempts in a game was considered too much. Now, it's like 25-30 3 pt attempts is the norm. With the ever increasing 3 pt attempts and players attempting so many and making 8-12 of them a game, aren't you bound to have a contested 3 that will go wrong?


Today's 3 pt shots made are like layups. When a guy is constantly going up for layups/dunks, aren't a lot of them fouled and put themselves in a position for a 3 pt play? Isn't that part of the norm? And isn't that was the basketball gurus call the "conventional" 3 pt player?



Well now, 3 pt shoots are like easy layups for many in the league. The Kyle Korver's, Mike Miller's, Kevin Durant's, James Hardens who will attempt 10-12 3 pters a game. Aren't you bound to get fouled on 1 of those attempts?


My argument is that this 4 pt play outrage is way overstated and that with the more attempts and makes from 3 pt land, and with 3 pt attempts comprising 70% of today's game, aren't you bound to get fouled at least once or twice from there?


Thoughts.

Yes you are right. The game will continue to evolve and become more forcefully contested on the perimeter, and it won't balance out that much even if a great post player like Shaq emerges in the future.

The flip side of this is that calls should be very precise according to the exact rules, because the plays are cleanly visible and not engulfed in the fog of war down low. For instance, if you are calling contact on the shooter as a foul then there is zero excuse to not call a foul on CP3 riding Curry two feet to his left while he's airborne taking a 3. The fact that it's a 3 or that it's a last second shot etc or that they missed a call on the other end etc should not factor in at all. This will have to be fair and precise or else it will be laughable. Things like Shane Battier touching people's faces or always grazing arms and touching legs with his feet will have to be called.

On that subject Kobe might be leading the league in 4 point plays next season.

slashsnake
05-05-2014, 02:57 AM
I think another thing that may have effected it is the no more rip moves. The ol Chauncey Billups (and many others) cross their arms under the defender, rip them up and get 3 foul shots, with no chance of the ball actually going in. Now the fouls are only on legit shots (mostly).

But yeah, the shot is a bigger part. 17 guys 10 years ago shot at least 30 three's and made 40%. 40 this year. 3pt fg attemps have gone up 50% in the past 10 years. Quite a change there.

Not sure how to prove it without spending forever looking at the numbers bit but I think you have more 3pt specialists today (advent of more use, closer line, bigger role in college?) I just think back to the teams a while back and sure you had Horry or Redd, or Bowen, but now it seems that defensive wing who only hits three's is almost a given to either start or get big minutes for every team. Some have multiples. Heck the Heat have Battier, Allen, Mason, Lewis, Jones, and Douglas. That's 1300 shots and 62% of them are from beyond the arc. For fun, who's your big 3pt specialist you remember? BJ Armstrong shot 17% of his shots from downtown. Horry was 30% and didn't take more 3's than 2's until his 2nd to last year. Jon Sundvold shot 16% (you know you played tecmo). Steve Kerr never over half (37% of his total shots were 3's). Brent Barry is the only one who comes to mind easily who was over 50%, but he shot 54%, less than Miami's group.

It isn't just miami either. OKC has Fisher, Lamb, and Butler, SA has Green, Mills, Bonner, and Daye, Reddick, Bullock, and Barnes on the Clippers, Ross and Novak in toronto. All those guys take the 3 pointer as much or more than 2's.

It isn't more fouls overall. foul shots per FG is actually down a bit (.215 this year .229 10 years ago).

ATL#22
05-05-2014, 11:10 AM
Yes

KnicksorBust
05-05-2014, 11:23 AM
um, yes. more 3 point attempts will logically lead to more 4 point plays.

Yup. It's abnormally high during the playoffs but JEDean has a great point.

slashsnake
05-06-2014, 10:37 AM
I wonder if also this has to do with the loss of the illegal defense. I will keep using the bulls as an example here. Jacksons triangle was great for the pre 2000 illegal D. It still works, but back then, you put pippen and Jordan on one side of the court, and throw Wennington, Rodman, and Kerr on the other and the defense had to keep 3 guys over there without getting an illegal D called.

Now, you can pull off of those guys and leave them. You zone, you float help over not necessarily just a flat out double, and what does that do? It leaves the shooter with more space. Your hope is that if the swing pass comes, you close out and defend the shot.

So instead of a man in his face when he catches at the 3pt line, he has someone running at him, closing out, and possibly creating more of a chance to run into the shooter.

Just a thought...

MrfadeawayJB
05-06-2014, 11:38 AM
Too many are kicking legs out which should be an offensive foul

kobe4thewinbang
05-06-2014, 10:16 PM
The new rule is the player has to be able to land safely, which is leading to lots of calls. Yes, the flopping is getting really bad but there are also a lot of stupid defenders being too aggressive and feeding right into the shooter's hands.