PDA

View Full Version : Grady Sizemore



Nomar
05-03-2014, 07:45 PM
How much longer does he have?

He's not hitting well, that is, unless you compare it to his putrid fielding. I don't think he can be on this team in June if nothing changes.

Nava went sent down prematurely, and deserves to be in the lineup against RHP more than Sizemore. Luckily Nava had an option left, but I think he was suffering from a bit of bad luck. He's crushing AAA, and is definitely ready to come up whenever.

I'd give Grady a week or two, but I'm not optimistic about him. I think Sizemore's BABIP would go up given his ~20% line drive rate and his speed, but I don't think it would do enough for him to make him a serviceable corner OF, especially given his sub-par defense.

Anyone feel the same way?

Bos_Sports4Life
05-04-2014, 01:46 AM
How much longer does he have?

He's not hitting well, that is, unless you compare it to his putrid fielding. I don't think he can be on this team in June if nothing changes.

Nava went sent down prematurely, and deserves to be in the lineup against RHP more than Sizemore. Luckily Nava had an option left, but I think he was suffering from a bit of bad luck. He's crushing AAA, and is definitely ready to come up whenever.

I'd give Grady a week or two, but I'm not optimistic about him. I think Sizemore's BABIP would go up given his ~20% line drive rate and his speed, but I don't think it would do enough for him to make him a serviceable corner OF, especially given his sub-par defense.

Anyone feel the same way?

I was never optimistic/understood the sizemore signing and once I saw he doesn't have the range to be anything other than a LF really? I gave up all hope.

Sizemore just never really complimented what we already have, He's a LF'er these days that historically hits RHP...Which is what we already had in Nava.

I think the sox should have went after an OF'er that was capable of playing CF/RF who could handle LHP (Rajai Davis).

bagwell368
05-04-2014, 08:07 AM
IMO he's arguably got more use than Carp. Sizemore can draw walks and hit some xBH. He's not as feeble against LHP like Nava is. He's experienced, and is supposed to be an excellent clubhouse guy.

He's no building block, but outside of JBJ and SV (this year) any of the other OF's could be traded. I don't see Nava being back until there is a DL among the OF's or some OF gets traded.

-Lavigne43-
05-04-2014, 10:53 AM
I think hes been better then his numbers. I've seen him have some really good, long ab's, and make some hard outs. Hes looked a lot better than Carp and obviously Nava. I still think he can be a good player for us. I think he should get more leeway than most players given how long he was away from baseball. Also I don't buy at all that he's this horrible fielder like one month of UZR makes him look.

Station 13
05-04-2014, 11:37 AM
We need Nava lefty bat in our lineup regularly. A RHP with a slider just chews up Napoli, Middlebrooks and Bogaerts.

Nomar
05-04-2014, 02:28 PM
I'm gonna calculate his xBABIP and see what it looks like. I do agree with Lav that there have been some line outs for him that could've been XBH. He's not hitting righties well at all which concerns me, bu he's better than Nava vs LHP as Bags pointed out.

And I'm not basing his fielding off of UZR, I was more or less talking about CF. His reads haven't been great. Look at his grab the other day that was called "spectacular" in center. JBJ is slower than him and wouldnt have had to leave his feet on that ball. He isn't covering much ground especially considering that his arm isn't helping. That being said, I'm confident that once he acclimates himself to LF, he will be at least average. It's tough to switch positions even from CF to COF if that's all you've played for a decade.

Clearly there's room for debate, but I think his leash is shrinking.

Nomar
05-04-2014, 03:19 PM
Right on cue today :laugh2:

todu82
05-04-2014, 09:36 PM
I think his days as a starter may soon be over but I think he'll stick with team as a #4 or #5 outfielder.

Super.
05-05-2014, 02:02 PM
Why are people here defending Nava? He's played like dog **** this season

Nomar
05-05-2014, 02:58 PM
Why are people here defending Nava? He's played like dog **** this season

Several people have haha. I don't think he's as good as he played last year, but he's fine vs RHP just needed some more ABs IMO.

tc2deuce
05-05-2014, 06:17 PM
his ship has sailed

Bos_Sports4Life
05-05-2014, 11:01 PM
Why are people here defending Nava? He's played like dog **** this season

In his career Nava is a.284/.383/.437 against RHP (824 PA's). By far enough of a sample imo to take a deep breath and give him another chance to do what he does. He has much more value to this team than sizemore IMO.

RedSoxtober
05-06-2014, 10:03 AM
In his career Nava is a.284/.383/.437 against RHP (824 PA's). By far enough of a sample imo to take a deep breath and give him another chance to do what he does. He has much more value to this team than sizemore IMO.

In his last 14 games Sizemore has hit .140/.241/.240 with 15K in part due to a .194 BABIP. That line is nearly identical to Nava's (17G: .149/.240/.269, 17K). Defensively Sizemore has 3 assists and no errors while playing a mix of OF positions in contrast to Nava's two errors (including a game loser in the OF iirc and one at 1B) and one assist.

Despite protestations otherwise there is no doubt in my mind which of the two is the superior defensive OF and which has the higher ceiling. All other things being equal, I'm keeping that guy on the roster.

Bos_Sports4Life
05-06-2014, 11:12 AM
In his last 14 games Sizemore has hit .140/.241/.240 with 15K in part due to a .194 BABIP. That line is nearly identical to Nava's (17G: .149/.240/.269, 17K). Defensively Sizemore has 3 assists and no errors while playing a mix of OF positions in contrast to Nava's two errors (including a game loser in the OF iirc and one at 1B) and one assist.

Despite protestations otherwise there is no doubt in my mind which of the two is the superior defensive OF and which has the higher ceiling. All other things being equal, I'm keeping that guy on the roster.

However Nava just last season was top 5 in OBP while sizemore hasn't really done anything since 09...How many players go that long fighting through injuries and become productive once again?

I just value Nava's career RHP OBP much more than sizemores defensive upgrade in LF.

bagwell368
05-07-2014, 08:10 AM
He's a LF'er these days that historically hits RHP...Which is what we already had in Nava.

Sizemore is a better fielder and appears to be a better leader/clubhouse guy than Nava. Also seems to have a great deal of respect from the Manager. Sizemore is better against LHP than Nava too.

I wouldn't say that it's clear cut at all. Also because Farrell didn't get Drew as he desired, could be that Sizemore is to some extent is his consolation prize. Doubt he'll give him up without a fight or an injury.

I notice Nava is getting moved all around the OF down in AAA, but no 1B. Maybe Carp isn't as much as a goner as many have felt. Can't see why Nava isn't getting games at 1B unless they decided he sucks too bad at it - and from what I've seen - he blows.

RedSoxtober
05-07-2014, 09:07 AM
However Nava just last season was top 5 in OBP while sizemore hasn't really done anything since 09...How many players go that long fighting through injuries and become productive once again?

I just value Nava's career RHP OBP much more than sizemores defensive upgrade in LF.

Yes, he WAS. And the year before that he was a 101 OPS+ guy. Neither of those help much in 2014. How many guys who play their first full MLB season at age 30 remain top-5 offensive players?

On the current home stand Sizemore's hitting .368/.455/.473. If he's simply gone throw a slump it seems silly to me to favor a very narrow aspect of Nava's game over a greater overall contribution. Even more so when that aspect is better by only the narrowest of margins (career OBP vs RHP: Sizemore .374, Nava .383) and the bigger picture shifts clearly towards the competition (career OBP vs LHP: Sizemore .315, Nava .294; career OPS+: Sizemore 119, Nava 107)

Bo Sox Fan
05-07-2014, 10:24 AM
If I'm Ben I'd consider giving Sizemore an extension or atleast another 1 year deal loaded with incentives.

His ability to play LF/CF/RF as a 4th outfielder/fringe regular along with his offence/speed/defence doesn't come all that often on the cheap.

He still shows signs of a 5 tool player, don't let him go!

ruckus16969
05-07-2014, 01:39 PM
If I'm Ben I'd consider giving Sizemore an extension or atleast another 1 year deal loaded with incentives.

His ability to play LF/CF/RF as a 4th outfielder/fringe regular along with his offence/speed/defence doesn't come all that often on the cheap.

He still shows signs of a 5 tool player, don't let him go!

I have to agree

Bos_Sports4Life
05-07-2014, 10:34 PM
Sizemore is a better fielder and appears to be a better leader/clubhouse guy than Nava. Also seems to have a great deal of respect from the Manager. Sizemore is better against LHP than Nava too.

better clubhouse guy? Nava seems to be a quite dude that works hard. He's never complained or anything of that nature that ive heard...Even last season when he was benched a lot in the playoffs and being sent down after struggling for a month.

I wouldn't call him an active leader when It comes to patrolling the locker room but sizemore doesn't seem to be that guy either and I wouldn't even say that type of guy is needed in this locker room.


I wouldn't say that it's clear cut at all. Also because Farrell didn't get Drew as he desired, could be that Sizemore is to some extent is his consolation prize. Doubt he'll give him up without a fight or an injury.

We'll see.

He's shows flashes but his overall production has been underwhelming to say the least.

I also don't know of anyone who's gone on such a layoff while fighting injuries to come back and be a productive player. I'm sure its been done, but its extremely rare. Not something I'd bet on.




I notice Nava is getting moved all around the OF down in AAA, but no 1B. Maybe Carp isn't as much as a goner as many have felt. Can't see why Nava isn't getting games at 1B unless they decided he sucks too bad at it - and from what I've seen - he blows.

Not surprising, Nava is basically a one trick pony..Good OBP against RHP but it's a pretty nice quality and imo outweighs was Nava will likely bring to the table.

All I know is this. Sizemore hasn't been himself for several seasons, Both knees have been worked on which has obviously caused his fielding in CF to struggle and he doesn't have an arm to play RF well...Again never mind his bleh range.

So sure he's an upgrade in LF over gomes/sizemore defensively but defense in LF has a minimal impact, esp at Fenway.

Point I'm trying to make is this, Nava just last season had a year in which he had a .894 OPS against RHP. Now will he do that again? Obviously probably not, but demoting a guy a year removed from that production because of a bad month? I don't really agree with that either.

bagwell368
05-07-2014, 10:57 PM
better clubhouse guy? Nava seems to be a quite dude that works hard. He's never complained or anything of that nature that ive heard...Even last season when he was benched a lot in the playoffs and being sent down after struggling for a month.

Nobody said Nava is a bad clubhouse guy, but Sizemore has a large following of ex teammates and coaches behind him that can't stop themselves from pouring out the encomiums. Check it out before you drape asbestos underwear on a forgettable AAAA player.


I wouldn't call him an active leader when It comes to patrolling the locker room but sizemore doesn't seem to be that guy either and I wouldn't even say that type of guy is needed in this locker room.

Proof?


He's shows flashes but his overall production has been underwhelming to say the least.

This from a fan of Nava?

year - age - slash

2010 - 27 - .242/.351/.360
2011 - DNP
2012 - 29 - .243/.352/.390
2013 - 30 - .303/.385/.445
2014 - 31 - .149/.240/.269

So, Nava has a nice career OBP - much of that due to the fact he's platooned vs LHP. His only real good season in '13 was a tale of two seasons. From June 5th to Aug 13th inclusive (49 games) he was .259/.332/ .329 (37% of his season). So basically he has 2/3 of a very good season and the rest of his career looks like a AAAA player they bought for a buck.


I also don't know of anyone who's gone on such a layoff while fighting injuries to come back and be a productive player. I'm sure its been done, but its extremely rare. Not something I'd bet on.

It's about as good a play as an Indie player into his 30's with 1120 career PA's that's basically a platoon guy.

Bos_Sports4Life
05-08-2014, 12:35 AM
Nobody said Nava is a bad clubhouse guy, but Sizemore has a large following of ex teammates and coaches behind him that can't stop themselves from pouring out the encomiums. Check it out before you drape asbestos underwear on a forgettable AAAA player.

I don't really care about his large following, this clubhouse won a WS last October...It's not like they are missing the high character guys.



Proof?

Don't have any...But does he remind you of a guy like varitek?

IMO this team doesn't really have any leaders like that but this clubhouse also doesn't need any...They patrol themselves.




This from a fan of Nava?

year - age - slash

2010 - 27 - .242/.351/.360
2011 - DNP
2012 - 29 - .243/.352/.390
2013 - 30 - .303/.385/.445
2014 - 31 - .149/.240/.269

So, Nava has a nice career OBP - much of that due to the fact he's platooned vs LHP. His only real good season in '13 was a tale of two seasons. From June 5th to Aug 13th inclusive (49 games) he was .259/.332/ .329 (37% of his season). So basically he has 2/3 of a very good season and the rest of his career looks like a AAAA player they bought for a buck.

Most players will have some peaks/valleys...I'd rather just look at his overall production from that season when judging him on that season.

Fact is? He had a 2.8 WAR season which was directly after a 1.5 WAR season which was accomplished playing in only 88 games. Given 162 games? that's easily a season with a WAR north of 2.0 in all likelihood.

Not exactly lighting the world on fire but sizemore hasn't had a 2.0+ WAR season since 2009 and the last time he had a WAR above 2.8? 2008. Right now? He has a -0.1 WAR and has a ways to go if he wants to surpass 2.0

The way I look at it is this..The fact Nava can't hit LHP doesn't really affect much Due to Gomes and if shane/JBJ are both healthy, Sizemore becomes somewhat pointless in my eyes.

So basically if everyone is healthy Nava compliments this team more imo.



It's about as good a play as an Indie player into his 30's with 1120 career PA's that's basically a platoon guy.[/QUOTE]

filihok
05-08-2014, 01:18 AM
year - age - slash

2010 - 27 - .242/.351/.360
2011 - DNP
2012 - 29 - .243/.352/.390
2013 - 30 - .303/.385/.445
2014 - 31 - .149/.240/.269

So, Nava has a nice career OBP - much of that due to the fact he's platooned vs LHP. His only real good season in '13 was a tale of two seasons. From June 5th to Aug 13th inclusive (49 games) he was .259/.332/ .329 (37% of his season). So basically he has 2/3 of a very good season and the rest of his career looks like a AAAA player they bought for a buck.
What is your red ink supposed to indicate?

In 2010 Nava was basically a league average offensive player
In 2012 Nava was basically a league average offensive player
In 2013 Nava was much better than a league average offensive player
In 2014 Nava has been much worse than a league average offensive player

bagwell368
05-08-2014, 06:34 AM
He had a 2.8 WAR season which was directly after a 1.5 WAR season which was accomplished playing in only 88 games. Given 162 games? that's easily a season with a WAR north of 2.0 in all likelihood.

His split vs LHP that year was: .185/.280/.333 - enhancing the argument that he's a platoon player. His 6 HR's in '12 in 88 games is also weak stuff for a Fenway LF. An OPS+ of 101 is also below average for a AL LF in any year.

Career view of Nava? A below average hitter (good OBP, meh SLG) that needs to be platooned to reach that level, as a full time starter he'd be worse than that. He's also a below average fielder and nothing special on the bases. I understand the draw of the underdog, but, outside of 4 months last year, his career hovers between a replacement level player and average - more towards the replacement level - make him face the full brace of LHP and he's replacement level all the way (career vs LHP a woeful: .212/.294/.308) - that's sort of like a no hit catcher or SS line.


Not exactly lighting the world on fire but sizemore hasn't had a 2.0+ WAR season since 2009 and the last time he had a WAR above 2.8? 2008. Right now? He has a -0.1 WAR and has a ways to go if he wants to surpass 2.0

Sizemore has well outhit Nava this year.

Last 7 games Sizemore is at: .320/.433/.440
First 10 games Sizemore was: .343/.395/.571
He slumped in the middle, Nava had nothing like either of Sizemore's streaks this year. Even in AAA he hasn't matched either one.

Sizemore has never played RF or LF in his career besides this year. Now that he's settling into LF he looks like he's getting more comfortable out there, and should offer better D than Nava.


The way I look at it is this..The fact Nava can't hit LHP doesn't really affect much

Well, in your world view do starters all throw CG's? In the real world they don't and hitters that are unusually weak get preyed on. Out of Nava's 1116 PA's, 292 are against LHP. If he gets back here I wouldn't expect a much different ratio.


Due to Gomes and if shane/JBJ are both healthy, Sizemore becomes somewhat pointless in my eyes.

Well Sizemore and Nava are both healthy and one is on the minors and the other isn't.


So basically if everyone is healthy Nava compliments this team more imo.

Well opinions... based on the facts I see a fairly close argument with the edge going to Sizemore at this point. I was worried about him during his slump, his bat seemed slow. He's still not the hitter he was, but, Nava was practically an automatic out this year. You have to go with the guy with a pulse, not the bloodless OBP guy that lost or misplaced his ability to control AB's as in early '13.

bagwell368
05-08-2014, 06:46 AM
filihok inquires: What is your red ink supposed to indicate?

poor marks for a LF (which is basically what he has been)

In 2010 Nava was basically a league average offensive player - false, a 91 OPS+ for a LF is basically replacement level.


In 2012 Nava was basically a league average offensive player - true, but still below the average LF

In 2013 Nava was much better than a league average offensive player - true, but he was quite brutal for a 49 game stretch

In 2014 Nava has been much worse than a league average offensive player - true

Numbers are cute and all, but... Nava is a platoon player which is a disadvantage, rosters do not provide for a platoon at every position, so it's a drag to carry a player that sucks vs LHP. Outside of Nava's 4 big months in '13, he's been well below an average offensive LF in his time, and he's also a below average fielder.

He's a cool story - Indie player makes good and all, but right now he's insurance for the ML Sox OF's. I heard he was "tearing up" AAA, but .294/.390/.500 has a translation in the Majors, right? Like .234/.325/.415? Meh.

RedSoxtober
05-08-2014, 09:44 AM
In 2013 Nava was much better than a league average offensive player - true, but he was quite brutal for a 49 game stretch


Personally I don't want to disparage his production last year in any way. I'm quite sure that we could poke holes in quite a few players that way. I am far more concerned that 2013 was an outlier season for him and 2014 seems to be pointing in that direction.

filihok
05-08-2014, 10:10 AM
filihok inquires: What is your red ink supposed to indicate?

poor marks for a LF (which is basically what he has been)

In 2010 Nava was basically a league average offensive player - false, a 91 OPS+ for a LF is basically replacement level.

How is it false?
And why use OPS+ when wRC+ exists and is the better metric?
Nava was a league average offensive player, just as I said.



Numbers are cute and all
Don't sell yourself short. I'm sure you're cute as well.


Outside of Nava's 4 big months in '13, he's been well below an average offensive LF in his time, and he's also a below average fielder.

He's a cool story - Indie player makes good and all, but right now he's insurance for the ML Sox OF's. I heard he was "tearing up" AAA, but .294/.390/.500 has a translation in the Majors, right? Like .234/.325/.415? Meh.
Nava is what he is - a fringe starter/back up.

-Lavigne43-
05-08-2014, 12:48 PM
The debate really shouldn't be Grady vs Nava. Carp is the player that would be replaced. Carp would likely be gone if Nava didn't have an option.

bagwell368
05-08-2014, 02:58 PM
How is it false? ... Nava was a league average offensive player, just as I said.

He might have been close to league average but since rWAR and fWAR are adjusted to account for position(s) played, then "average LF" would be more apropos than "average offensive player". Assuming you don't want to argue that to death then my label of nearly a replacement level LF is closer. In the AL in 2010 the average LF had a 109 OPS+, since Nava was a 91, we see his OPS+ is -18 below the average LF.


Nava is what he is - a fringe starter/back up.

Now you're talking sense since his position seems to be intimated in that statement. If he was a great fielding catcher with those numbers he'd be sublime, but for primarily a LF in an offensive home park? Eh.

bagwell368
05-08-2014, 03:00 PM
The debate really shouldn't be Grady vs Nava. Carp is the player that would be replaced. Carp would likely be gone if Nava didn't have an option.

I was saying that before, but if true, how come Nava isn't getting 1B work in down on the farm? Who else plays 1B when Napoli sits if Carp is gone?

bagwell368
05-08-2014, 03:09 PM
Personally I don't want to disparage his production last year in any way. I'm quite sure that we could poke holes in quite a few players that way. I am far more concerned that 2013 was an outlier season for him and 2014 seems to be pointing in that direction.

Well... Besides the rocky ride by month, there is the .352 BAbip - eq for that and his great year becomes a bit MOR (middle of the road).

RedSoxtober
05-09-2014, 09:39 AM
Well... Besides the rocky ride by month, there is the .352 BAbip - eq for that and his great year becomes a bit MOR (middle of the road).

That just goes more to my point -- yes it was a VERY good season but it stands as an outlier to his career. An unsustainable BABIP (long term) would tend to agree with that.

filihok
05-09-2014, 12:40 PM
He might have been close to league average but since rWAR and fWAR are adjusted to account for position(s) played, then "average LF" would be more apropos than "average offensive player". Assuming you don't want to argue that to death then my label of nearly a replacement level LF is closer. In the AL in 2010 the average LF had a 109 OPS+, since Nava was a 91, we see his OPS+ is -18 below the average LF.



Now you're talking sense since his position seems to be intimated in that statement. If he was a great fielding catcher with those numbers he'd be sublime, but for primarily a LF in an offensive home park? Eh.
I've been talking sense the entire time.

You posted some offensive stats on Nava and I stated that Nava has been about a league average hitter - which is absolutely true.