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View Full Version : Who's on your all-nba 1st team?



ThaDubs
04-16-2014, 01:48 AM
I got Curry, Harden, KD, Bron, and Noah

Bulls_fan90
04-16-2014, 02:00 AM
CP3
Curry
Durant
LeBron
Noah

goingfor28
04-16-2014, 02:01 AM
Curry
Harden
KD
Lebron
Blake

Hard for me to put Harden bc of his zero defense but not really any other option

tredigs
04-16-2014, 02:05 AM
It's tough, and I can't just do one...

1st:

G: Curry
G: Harden
F: KD
F: Lebron
C: Noah

2nd:

G: CP3
G: Dragic
F: Love
F: Griffin
C: Anthony Davis

3rd:

G: Kyle Lowry
G: John Wall
F: Carmelo
F: Dirk
C: Howard

The top 4 guards all have a decent case as 1st team players to me (CP3 missing as much time as he did and the Clips charging through his absence is what leans me to Curry/Harden). The only 1st team locks are KD and Lebron; other than those two many of the votes will be split between each of the three teams. LMA, PG, and probably Cousins and Lillard will get a chunk of votes as well.

abe_froman
04-16-2014, 02:11 AM
curry
cp3
lebron
kd
noah

...also ,why do you have no center? the all nba format still follows the g,g,f,f,c set up

Tony_Starks
04-16-2014, 02:12 AM
CP3
Curry
KD
Lebron
Noah

tredigs
04-16-2014, 02:20 AM
Yeah, Love spends a little time at center but Blake is about as pure a PF as there is. That would be a tough argument in the G/G/F/F/C format that the All-NBA teams follow. And with Noah putting together a pretty legitimate All NBA 1st Team season at C when you consider how solid he was defensively (will probably get DPOY), I'd rather put him in than find the loophole for Love in this case.

ThaDubs
04-16-2014, 02:27 AM
Noah them, my b

Hawkeye15
04-16-2014, 02:29 AM
Paul
Harden
James
Durant
Noah

slashsnake
04-16-2014, 02:42 AM
Interesting battles. KD and Lebron are locks

2 out of Curry, CP3 and Harden

2 out of Love, Noah, and Griffin.

If you go with the center like I believe the all NBA team does, that puts Noah in for me... But I wonder in a couple weeks with playoffs if people wouldn't be rethinking Dwight there, or if in a few years we will be looking back wondering how we passed Anthony Davis there.

Mine...

Durant
Lebron
Curry
Harden
Noah

Sorry, but CP3's line was 0-0-0-0-0-0 for 1/4 of the season. He's a better overall player than the other two in my opinion, but that drops him out for me.

P&GRealist
04-16-2014, 02:58 AM
Paul, Curry, Durant, LeBron, Griffin

Chacarron
04-16-2014, 03:23 AM
CP3, Harden, Durant, LeBron, Noah

ThaDubs
04-16-2014, 05:17 AM
CP3, Harden, Durant, LeBron, Noah

So you'd take Harden and CP3 over Curry? Why tho

FraziersKnicks
04-16-2014, 06:40 AM
1st team:

G: Chris Paul
G: Steph Curry
F: Kevin Durant
F: LeBron James
C: Joakim Noah

2nd team:

G: Goran Dragic
G: James Harden
F: Kevin Love
F: Blake Griffin
C: Anthony Davis

3rd team:

G: John Wall
G: Damian Lillard
F: Carmelo Anthony
F: Dirk Nowitzki
C: LaMarcus Aldridge

ManningToTyree
04-16-2014, 09:52 AM
Curry
Harden
KD
Lebron
Noah

mightybosstone
04-16-2014, 10:13 AM
First
G: Stephen Curry
G: James Harden
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Joakim Noah

Second
G: Chris Paul
G: Goran Dragic
F: Blake Griffin
F: Kevin Love
C: Dwight Howard

Third
G: Kyle Lowry
G: Tony Parker
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Anthony Davis
C: Al Jefferson

Honorable Mention 4th team
G: Damian Lillard
G: Mike Conley
F: Paul George
F: Carmelo Anthony
C: Chris Bosh

JasonJohnHorn
04-16-2014, 10:36 AM
I go by specific position myself, not forwards and guards like most, so that said, LBJ is going on my second team, despite the fact that he is clearly no less than the second best player.


PG: CP3
SG: James Harden
SF: KD
PF: Blake Griffin
C: Joakim Noah


Antonio Davis, Kevin Love and LeBron James are all deserving of a spot on the team, and perhaps even DMC.

I'm not sure Dwight would make an All-NBA team this year if it were up to me. I'd have Noah, AD and DMC for my C's (even though AD starts at PF, on defense he is a C and on offense there really isn't a difference between a PF and C in my opinion).

D-Leethal
04-16-2014, 11:01 AM
I like the OP list. I think Paul missed too many games to give him First Team. Blake deserves a first team spot over Paul but its about time Noah gets recognized for how god damn good he is.

mightybosstone
04-16-2014, 12:33 PM
I go by specific position myself, not forwards and guards like most, so that said, LBJ is going on my second team, despite the fact that he is clearly no less than the second best player.


PG: CP3
SG: James Harden
SF: KD
PF: Blake Griffin
C: Joakim Noah


Antonio Davis, Kevin Love and LeBron James are all deserving of a spot on the team, and perhaps even DMC.

I'm not sure Dwight would make an All-NBA team this year if it were up to me. I'd have Noah, AD and DMC for my C's (even though AD starts at PF, on defense he is a C and on offense there really isn't a difference between a PF and C in my opinion).

Except that's not how the NBA does the All-NBA teams. They select two guards, two forwards and a center. That's like saying, "I know the NBA only allows X amount of players for the All-Star game, but here's my All-Star team if they allowed 12 guards and two forwards." Also, I don't quite get your logic about allowing Davis to be a C, but not doing the same for Lebron. James spends pretty much as much time on the floor as a PF as he does at SF, so if Davis counts for C Lebron should certainly count for PF.

Chacarron
04-16-2014, 12:56 PM
So you'd take Harden and CP3 over Curry? Why tho

I think CP3 has been the best PG this season. Same with Harden being the best SG this season. I know it's 2 guard spots but I prefer to separate them by PG and SG.

Chacarron
04-16-2014, 12:58 PM
I go by specific position myself, not forwards and guards like most, so that said, LBJ is going on my second team, despite the fact that he is clearly no less than the second best player.


PG: CP3
SG: James Harden
SF: KD
PF: Blake Griffin
C: Joakim Noah


Antonio Davis, Kevin Love and LeBron James are all deserving of a spot on the team, and perhaps even DMC.

I'm not sure Dwight would make an All-NBA team this year if it were up to me. I'd have Noah, AD and DMC for my C's (even though AD starts at PF, on defense he is a C and on offense there really isn't a difference between a PF and C in my opinion).

You are aware that Lebron played the majority of his minutes as a PF this season, right?

Chronz
04-16-2014, 01:10 PM
Except that's not how the NBA does the All-NBA teams. They select two guards, two forwards and a center. That's like saying, "I know the NBA only allows X amount of players for the All-Star game, but here's my All-Star team if they allowed 12 guards and two forwards." Also, I don't quite get your logic about allowing Davis to be a C, but not doing the same for Lebron. James spends pretty much as much time on the floor as a PF as he does at SF, so if Davis counts for C Lebron should certainly count for PF.

lol. burn

Chronz
04-16-2014, 01:14 PM
First
G: Stephen Curry
G: Chris Paul
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Joakim Noah

Second
G: Harden
G: Goran Dragic
F: Blake Griffin
F: Kevin Love
C: Dwight Howard

Third
G: Kyle Lowry
G: Tony Parker
F: Paul George
F: Dirk
C: Anthony Davis

Bruno
04-16-2014, 02:25 PM
First
G: Stephen Curry
G: Chris Paul
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Joakim Noah

Second
G: Harden
G: Goran Dragic
F: Blake Griffin
F: Kevin Love
C: Dwight Howard

Third
G: Kyle Lowry
G: Tony Parker
F: Paul George
F: Dirk
C: Anthony Davis

whats your justification for putting howard over davis?

Chronz
04-16-2014, 02:32 PM
whats your justification for putting howard over davis?

Defense and winning. Davis is prolly the better player tho, wouldn't argue switching places. Might do it myself on 2nd thought. Dude is a beast offensively.

But the way I see it, Noah is less productive individually than both Dwight and Davis, yet hes on the MVP ballot and going on alot of first teams. Why not Dwight above Davis for similar reasons?

beyourself
04-16-2014, 02:39 PM
LeBron played 82% of his minutes as a power forward this season. If the did it by position it would be.

PG- Paul
SG- Harden
SF- Durant
PF- LeBron
C- Noah

Sadds The Gr8
04-16-2014, 02:39 PM
First
G: Stephen Curry
G: Chris Paul
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Joakim Noah

Second
G: Harden
G: Goran Dragic
F: Blake Griffin
F: Kevin Love
C: Dwight Howard

Third
G: Kyle Lowry
G: Tony Parker
F: Paul George
F: Dirk
C: Anthony Davis
agree with all these teams

Bruno
04-16-2014, 02:44 PM
Defense and winning. Davis is prolly the better player tho, wouldn't argue switching places. Might do it myself on 2nd thought. Dude is a beast offensively.

But the way I see it, Noah is less productive individually than both Dwight and Davis, yet hes on the MVP ballot and going on alot of first teams. Why not Dwight above Davis for similar reasons?
fair enough.

dwight allows 47.8% at the rim, Davis 48.8%. i'd maybe argue that the gap between Davis's offense and Howards offense is bigger than the gap between their defense but i understand awarding howard for winning. its just hard to put howard above Davis for winning when the gap on their advanced line is as big as it is. Davis has him by 5 full points in PER and has WS/48 thats significantly higher too.

i'd maybe argue that Noah produces just as much as howard. fewer points per game but he makes up for it by averaging 4 more assists per game.

numba1CHANGsta
04-16-2014, 02:53 PM
Since Griffin isn't getting 1st team, then the voters will go with CP3, so that makes CP3/Curry/Durant/LeBron/Noah

Bruno
04-16-2014, 02:59 PM
Curry
Harden
Durant
James
Noah

Paul (missed too many games to surpass Curry or Harden, although better than both per minute).
Lowry (passes Dragic because Toronto has a better record and Phoenix is eliminated)
Blake
Love
Davis (his advanced line is too dominant for me to have him any lower, and he plays D unlike DMC).

Dragic
Parker
George
Dirk
Duncan (narrowly beats out Dwight with similar production on a team that's won 8 more games than Houston).

lets think about the players who aren't on this list. the Kobe, Westbrook and Rose injuries have opened up a lot of space on these teams. the decline of williams and nash as well.

MVP: Durant
DPOY: Noah
6th man: Gibson
MIP: Davis
COY: Pop.

tredigs
04-16-2014, 03:00 PM
I wonder what the least games a guy has played and still made the All NBA 1st team is? Quarter of the season for Paul has to be pushing it. But, from a production level it's him and Curry with Harden at #3. I just can't overlook missing that much time when there's other viable candidates.

Bruno
04-16-2014, 03:02 PM
Since Griffin isn't getting 1st team, then the voters will go with CP3, so that makes CP3/Curry/Durant/LeBron/Noah

probably accurate and not a crime, although not my vote.

tredigs
04-16-2014, 03:05 PM
Since Griffin isn't getting 1st team, then the voters will go with CP3, so that makes CP3/Curry/Durant/LeBron/Noah

Why do you think they'd have that logic, because their team is good? 90% of our ballots don't have a player from the teams with the 2 best records (Spurs/Pacers).

Jeffy25
04-16-2014, 03:11 PM
Curry, CP3, Durant, Lebron, and Love

Davis and Cousins arguably belong in there as well

Chronz
04-16-2014, 03:34 PM
fair enough.

dwight allows 47.8% at the rim, Davis 48.8%. i'd maybe argue that the gap between Davis's offense and Howards offense is bigger than the gap between their defense but i understand awarding howard for winning. its just hard to put howard above Davis for winning when the gap on their advanced line is as big as it is. Davis has him by 5 full points in PER and has WS/48 thats significantly higher too.

i'd maybe argue that Noah produces just as much as howard. fewer points per game but he makes up for it by averaging 4 more assists per game.

There are more numbers to present than just rim protection. And Noah is still less productive individually despite those assists.

Bruno
04-16-2014, 03:38 PM
There are more numbers to present than just rim protection. And Noah is still less productive individually despite those assists.

such as (besides pNr D)? anything we can look up?

how so? noah and howards production looks like a wash to me.

Hawkeye15
04-16-2014, 03:41 PM
what sucks is, we have a rash of great PF's right now, and none of them have, or will sniff 1st team for a while haha.

WhiteSoxGod
04-16-2014, 03:50 PM
Curry
Harden
Durant
James
Noah

shep33
04-16-2014, 04:10 PM
Curry
Harden
KD
Bron
Noah

Shammyguy3
04-16-2014, 11:29 PM
There are more numbers to present than just rim protection. And Noah is still less productive individually despite those assists.

Would you mind explaining why you feel Dwight's production outweighs Noah's?

Crackadalic
04-16-2014, 11:46 PM
1st team
Curry
Harden
Durant
James
Noah

2nd team
Kyle
Cp3
Dirk
Blake
Dwight

3rd
Dragic
Demar
Paul George
Love
Davis

JordansBulls
04-17-2014, 12:40 AM
First
G: Dwyane Wade
G: James Harden
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Dwight Howard

mngopher35
04-17-2014, 12:53 AM
First
G: Dwyane Wade
G: James Harden
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Dwight Howard

Dwight shouldn't really be on the first team but it isn't completely horrible. The bold though? LOL

DallasTrilla23
04-17-2014, 01:03 AM
CP3
Harden
Durant
Lebron
Noah

Bruno
04-17-2014, 01:46 AM
First
G: Dwyane Wade
G: James Harden
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Dwight Howard
did you watch basketball this year?

this is the 2009 squad with Harden replacing Kobe JB, :laugh2:

FlashBolt
04-17-2014, 01:55 AM
Lots of choices but I gotta go:

Durant
CP3
Noah
LeBron
Curry

I feel bad for the amazing PF/SF that we do have, though. With Durant/LeBron, you won't get anyone else on the NBA 1st team. Noah, well deserved. As for the guard position, I contemplated Curry/Harden/WB for the final spot. I think Curry has been better this year. Took WB out because of missed games but Harden's defense is 10x worse than Curry.

freejimmer
04-17-2014, 01:57 AM
Durant
Griffin
Noah
Harden
Curry

Kaner
04-17-2014, 01:58 AM
Curry
Harden
Durant
Lebron
Noah

Paul
Dragic
Love
Blake
Howard

Lilliard
Parker
Melo
George
DMC

mightybosstone
04-17-2014, 11:11 AM
First
G: Dwyane Wade
G: James Harden
F: Kevin Durant
F: Lebron James
C: Dwight Howard

:facepalm: C'mon JB. Wade, really? I would like an honest explanation for how Wade beats out Curry, Paul, Dragic and Lowry. He played the fewest minutes per game ever in his career, he played in far fewer games than each of the four players I just mentioned and his numbers are the worst they've been since his rookie season. How can you honestly justify that atrocious selection? I had eight guards among my four teams, and Wade wasn't one of them. Yet you believe he was one of the two best guards in the league this season. One of us is very, very, very wrong....

KnicksorBust
04-17-2014, 11:57 AM
Knocking out CP3 because he didn't play enough games.

G - Curry
G - Harden
F - LeBron
F - Durant
C - Noah

Toughest omissions: LAC duo

Chronz
04-17-2014, 12:59 PM
such as (besides pNr D)? anything we can look up?

how so? noah and howards production looks like a wash to me.
Counterpart and +/- analysis

Crap, you might be right. The stats are fairly close depending on how you feel about usage/efficiency. Even if Dwight has better production on a better team, there is something about Noah's intangibles that I like more.
But lets say they are roughly on equal footing, can you explain this seemingly glaring contradiction:

i understand awarding howard for winning. its just hard to put howard above Davis for winning when the gap on their advanced line is as big as it is. Davis has him by 5 full points in PER and has WS/48 thats significantly higher too.

i'd maybe argue that Noah produces just as much as howard. fewer points per game but he makes up for it by averaging 4 more assists per game.

So its hard to award Howard for winning over a guy with superior output, but its easy for you to put the guy with even less wins and similar stats ahead of both? Something doesn't add up there. The reasons you have given against Dwight would hold more true for Noah.



Would you mind explaining why you feel Dwight's production outweighs Noah's?
I was wrong, I didn't realize how close they were, Noah certainly has the argument if you value efficiency above individual usage. Which I would in most cases, and I kind of have when I selected Noah above Dwight, I just didn't do it for statistical reasons. Now that I see them, its a pretty easy case to make for Noah.

The one thing that gives me slight pause, is that in this case, his efficiency has translated into one of the leagues worst offenses whereas Dwight is on one of the best. Now much of that is because his team lacks firepower, but Im worried that if the Bulls were to have, say Derrick Rose back, that Noah's assist tallies would shrink as a result. Then again, Noah has had superior seasons in terms of efficiency when he was more of a finisher. So in a way Noah is playing his best ball by public perception, but has regressed statistically. Whatever the case, I was wrong about Noah, for some reason I thought his individual efficiency was a result of those inflated assist marks, but hes already posted higher marks when relieved of the playmaking responsibility. Its good to know he can adapt and perform in various roles, whereas Dwight sometimes struggles with admitting his own limitations.

Chronz
04-17-2014, 01:08 PM
I wonder what the least games a guy has played and still made the All NBA 1st team is? Quarter of the season for Paul has to be pushing it. But, from a production level it's him and Curry with Harden at #3. I just can't overlook missing that much time when there's other viable candidates.
The way I see it, Harden has taken most of the season off defensively. But yeah, CP3 is likely to make 2nd/3rd team because of his injuries.

But to answer the question, it was when old Shaq missed damn near half the season in 06 and still made first team ahead of Ben Wallace (82 games). But that was with shallow comp and his greatest competitor (Yao) missing an equal amount of games.

tredigs
04-17-2014, 02:12 PM
The way I see it, Harden has taken most of the season off defensively. But yeah, CP3 is likely to make 2nd/3rd team because of his injuries.

But to answer the question, it was when old Shaq missed damn near half the season in 06 and still made first team ahead of Ben Wallace (82 games). But that was with shallow comp and his greatest competitor (Yao) missing an equal amount of games.
Ah yup. Looking at it now though he actually only missed 3 more games than Paul this year.

Shammyguy3
04-17-2014, 03:18 PM
Counterpart and +/- analysis

Crap, you might be right. The stats are fairly close depending on how you feel about usage/efficiency. Even if Dwight has better production on a better team, there is something about Noah's intangibles that I like more.
But lets say they are roughly on equal footing, can you explain this seemingly glaring contradiction:


So its hard to award Howard for winning over a guy with superior output, but its easy for you to put the guy with even less wins and similar stats ahead of both? Something doesn't add up there. The reasons you have given against Dwight would hold more true for Noah.



I was wrong, I didn't realize how close they were, Noah certainly has the argument if you value efficiency above individual usage. Which I would in most cases, and I kind of have when I selected Noah above Dwight, I just didn't do it for statistical reasons. Now that I see them, its a pretty easy case to make for Noah.

The one thing that gives me slight pause, is that in this case, his efficiency has translated into one of the leagues worst offenses whereas Dwight is on one of the best. Now much of that is because his team lacks firepower, but Im worried that if the Bulls were to have, say Derrick Rose back, that Noah's assist tallies would shrink as a result. Then again, Noah has had superior seasons in terms of efficiency when he was more of a finisher. So in a way Noah is playing his best ball by public perception, but has regressed statistically. Whatever the case, I was wrong about Noah, for some reason I thought his individual efficiency was a result of those inflated assist marks, but hes already posted higher marks when relieved of the playmaking responsibility. Its good to know he can adapt and perform in various roles, whereas Dwight sometimes struggles with admitting his own limitations.

Agree on all accounts. Noah's a highly efficient big man in practically any scenario you want to put him in. If only he were more consistent in the mid-range ala Gasol, he'd have the best C in the league title on lock down this season. As is, it's still close between he and Dwight, I can see it go either way but realistically, story-line appeal has a way with these awards sometimes and Noah's is simply better (with losing Rose, trading Deng)

Hawkeye15
04-17-2014, 04:10 PM
I think you forgot Kobe and Tim Duncan. Also, HCA deserves honorable mentioning

no, he left out Chris Bosh and whatever stiff the Heat marched out at center the majority of the year.

Bruno
04-17-2014, 04:43 PM
Counterpart and +/- analysis

Crap, you might be right. The stats are fairly close depending on how you feel about usage/efficiency. Even if Dwight has better production on a better team, there is something about Noah's intangibles that I like more.
But lets say they are roughly on equal footing, can you explain this seemingly glaring contradiction:

the context of the wins and overall team support should play a factor in analysis when looking at two players of similar production. it's only a contradiction if you chose to ignore context; explain why you would.

can you explain why +/- is a major difference maker when looking at individual players? +/- is reflective of a five man effort, why not just look at defensive rating doesn't that accomplish the same thing? i think rim protection is the most relevant stat here. others are important but you seemed to dismiss rim protection earlier in favor of these other stats like +/-.


So its hard to award Howard for winning over a guy with superior output, but its easy for you to put the guy with even less wins and similar stats ahead of both? Something doesn't add up there. The reasons you have given against Dwight would hold more true for Noah.


the question isn't am i contradicting myself, the question is do we care about context. Noah and Howard both anchor squads that landed the 4th spot in their respective conference. do we care about wins or do we care about seeding? if both teams ended up with the same seed and both anchors have relatively equal production, don't we start looking at team context as the next step up the ladder? Noah is the leader of total win-shares and WS/48 by a large margin. Dwight Howard has James Harden and gets to perform and be judged in a secondary role. He's five WS behind Harden and is third. Terrance Jones has a better WS/48 with similar minutes and Parsons nearly rivals him in total winshares. shouldn't it be obvious that the guy who's doing the heaving lifting by himself should get the nod?

i put Lowry over Dragic because the Raptors finished with a respectable seed, while Phoenix is out. but they have the exact same record.

you're gona have to put more effort into this if you're going to try and catch me in anti-homer Dwightmareism contradiction chronz. i'd be more open minded to hearing you tell me that applying context is foolish than to you telling me that i'm contradicting myself.

Bruno
04-17-2014, 05:30 PM
what I'm saying Chronz is that if Dwight was 'the man' on the rockets and was most responsible for his teams success, I'd fall right in line with what you're saying. but he's the #2 and I weigh that accordingly when awarding him for his winning record. Daviss production is too good to be looked over for a #2 on a winning team.

Chronz
04-17-2014, 06:13 PM
the context of the wins and overall team support should play a factor in analysis when looking at two players of similar production. it's only a contradiction if you chose to ignore context; explain why you would.
I dont see how I have. I've gone by the context you have provided, if Im ignoring anything its only because you havent elaborated completely. Cant just assume I know everything you're talking about without explaining it. What is this context Im missing because I dont see how it accounts for your ranking.


can you explain why +/- is a major difference maker when looking at individual players? +/- is reflective of a five man effort, why not just look at defensive rating doesn't that accomplish the same thing? i think rim protection is the most relevant stat here. others are important but you seemed to dismiss rim protection earlier in favor of these other stats like +/-.
Technically all stats are a 5-man effort, it is a team game. Defensive rating is most definitely not +/-, DRTG is a composition stat that relies on the boxscore, not play by play data, it gives you credit for individual stats like rebounds and blocks along with team results. We can include that as well but you have to dock players you know aren't that influential. Actually kind of surprised you havent been following all the work thats been done with +/- analysis over the years, its definitely an area of focus. The sportsvu stats are a recent innovation, even the leagues experts are trying to gauge its significance. They are all pieces of the puzzle, but +/- based analysis is definitely the driving force in quantifying defense. That may change with time but from what Im reading, its a ways away before we can start mining anything useful out of these cam-stats defensively. And its not likely to come from sportsvu but the good people over at vantage. All I know is that the days of the boxscore measuring defense has come to a close, no longer will phonies like Camby win the award, thanks to +/- based metrics, non-rebounders/blks/steal guys like Gasol/Hibbert have a chance.

Im not dismissing anything, just wondering about the rest of the metrics.



the question isn't am i contradicting myself, the question is do we care about context. Noah and Howard both anchor squads that landed the 4th spot in their respective conference. do we care about wins or do we care about seeding? if both teams ended up with the same seed and both anchors have relatively equal production, don't we start looking at team context as the next step up the ladder?
Why would we prioritize seeding over team level of play? Im sure the Rockets would have more wins if they played in the East too, its such a negligible factor that we should instead focus on their teams level of play, opposed to geography.


Noah is the leader of total win-shares and WS/48 by a large margin. Dwight Howard has James Harden and gets to perform and be judged in a secondary role. He's five WS behind Harden and is third. Terrance Jones has a better WS/48 with similar minutes and Parsons nearly rivals him in total winshares. shouldn't it be obvious that the guy who's doing the heaving lifting by himself should get the nod?
I dont see how you can say the guy with the higher usage is in a secondary role, sounds like sly use of word play. That "secondary option" is actually accounting for a higher% of his teams more successful offense than the fulcrum of the less successful offense, even if you go by the old usage rate that accounted for assists.
If you want to make the claim that Noah is performing better offensively, thats fine, but lets not act like the load they carry offensively enhances Noah's argument. Dwight has better teammates, I would never dispute that, but do you really think that per minute, Jones has contributed to his teams bottom line more than Dwight Howard? Did Pau Gasol and Clyde Drexler contribute more to their championship teams than Hakeem/Kobe as well? WS is mostly a measure of efficiency but you have to be able to distinguish when guys are getting abit too much/too little credit for their bigger roles. Like we both KNOW Harden has been a **** defender, hes one of the main guys holding the team back, whatever DWS he has accrued probably dont belong to him. Harden is his teams best player but why should that make this argument any more obvious? Sounds like you're saying #2 guys cant be better than inferior teams #1. It would be one thing if the Rockets were on equal footing with Noah, at least then we could point to Dwight holding the teams superior talent back.




i put Lowry over Dragic because the Raptors finished with a respectable seed, while Phoenix is out. but they have the exact same record.
Thats awful reasoning IMO.

Chronz
04-17-2014, 06:23 PM
what I'm saying Chronz is that if Dwight was 'the man' on the rockets and was most responsible for his teams success, I'd fall right in line with what you're saying. but he's the #2 and I weigh that accordingly when awarding him for his winning record. Daviss production is too good to be looked over for a #2 on a winning team.

This cant be true so plz correct me if Im wrong but what you're saying is that a #2 cant be better than "the man" on an inferior team, even if they are on equal footing as individuals?


I mean, I guess thats one way out getting out of a contradiction but it sounds nonsensical. History is littered with #2's that were better than inferior teams #1. You would have a great point if Noah was leading his team to a record in line with Dwight's Rockets, but if that were the case, the statistical makeup of the argument would look alot different.

Bruno
04-17-2014, 07:01 PM
I dont see how I have. I've gone by the context you have provided, if Im ignoring anything its only because you havent elaborated completely. Cant just assume I know everything you're talking about without explaining it. What is this context Im missing because I dont see how it accounts for your ranking.


you're saying I'm giving you too much credit? I think you're being dense for the sake of argument.

i'll get back to the rest when i'm out of work later tonight.

Chronz
04-17-2014, 07:10 PM
you're saying I'm giving you too much credit? I think you're being dense for the sake of argument.

i'll get back to the rest when i'm out of work later tonight.
Im saying I might not agree with whatever contextual factors you are attributing here

I am playing alittle devils advocate but I genuinely dont understand how the same argument wouldn't apply in both scenarios. Its not like theres a wrong answer here, but I can admit my inconsistency when ranking these guys.

Bruno
04-17-2014, 10:59 PM
Defensive rating is most definitely not +/-, DRTG is a composition stat that relies on the boxscore, not play by play data, it gives you credit for individual stats like rebounds and blocks along with team results. .

As I understood it, defensive rating is marginal defense/marginal points per win. marginal defense being defined as individual minutes played/team minutes logged xteam defensive possession x league points per possession - defensive rating /100 and marginal points per win being defined as league points per game x team pace/league pace x 0.32. I could see how defensive rating isn't a good metric for the specifics of +/- but its loosely tied into the defensive rating stat in that it's a reflection of a given players points allowed per 100 defensive possessions

I don't see how individual stats like rebounding or blocks is a part of that equation.



We can include that as well but you have to dock players you know aren't that influential. Actually kind of surprised you havent been following all the work thats been done with +/- analysis over the years, its definitely an area of focus. The sportsvu stats are a recent innovation, even the leagues experts are trying to gauge its significance. They are all pieces of the puzzle, but +/- based analysis is definitely the driving force in quantifying defense. That may change with time but from what Im reading, its a ways away before we can start mining anything useful out of these cam-stats defensively. And its not likely to come from sportsvu but the good people over at vantage. All I know is that the days of the boxscore measuring defense has come to a close, no longer will phonies like Camby win the award, thanks to +/- based metrics, non-rebounders/blks/steal guys like Gasol/Hibbert have a chance.
I am aware of them I was just under the impression that it is related to defensive rating in that both stats award a player for the time they are given on the floor, and what happens to their teams defense when they are on, or off the floor. I mean can't we compare Jokims individual defensive rating to the Bulls overall defensive rating and get a grasp on how much better the team performs with him opposed to without him? Joakim is 96 individually and the Bulls are 100.5 as a team. in a way that serves the same purpose and exposes the same impact as +/- would, although not as specifically.

I'm excited for the innovations you speak of.



Im not dismissing anything, just wondering about the rest of the metrics.

I'd be open to looking at the numbers you suggested.


Why would we prioritize seeding over team level of play? Im sure the Rockets would have more wins if they played in the East too, its such a negligible factor that we should instead focus on their teams level of play, opposed to geography.
fair. i'm operating in the black and white world where both teams wins and success contributed to identical seeding, but i guess that's a bit obtuse; lets dig deeper.
when discussing team success are you talking wins or SRS? there's a big gap between Chicago and Houston, not trying to pull a sly one just asking your opinion.


I dont see how you can say the guy with the higher usage is in a secondary role, sounds like sly use of word play. That "secondary option" is actually accounting for a higher% of his teams more successful offense than the fulcrum of the less successful offense, even if you go by the old usage rate that accounted for assists.
If you want to make the claim that Noah is performing better offensively, thats fine, but lets not act like the load they carry offensively enhances Noah's argument. Dwight has better teammates, I would never dispute that, but do you really think that per minute, Jones has contributed to his teams bottom line more than Dwight Howard? Did Pau Gasol and Clyde Drexler contribute more to their championship teams than Hakeem/Kobe as well? WS is mostly a measure of efficiency but you have to be able to distinguish when guys are getting abit too much/too little credit for their bigger roles. Like we both KNOW Harden has been a **** defender, hes one of the main guys holding the team back, whatever DWS he has accrued probably dont belong to him. Harden is his teams best player but why should that make this argument any more obvious? Sounds like you're saying #2 guys cant be better than inferior teams #1. It would be one thing if the Rockets were on equal footing with Noah, at least then we could point to Dwight holding the teams superior talent back.

he is in a secondary role, relative to what he does for his team. just because noah has a lower USG on a different team it doesn't change what Howards role is in Houston.

of course not. i only brought up Jones and Parsons to suggest that a lot of that teams impact was spread around, with Howard being the clear cut #2. Noah is Chicagos top guy by a large margin and a discrepancy in USG doesn't change that although I understand what you're getting at.

what you're saying about Harden is spot on. he is the worst off the ball/back door defense I've ever seen for a superstar and he holds them back defensively. but he's still their top guy, he's still that guy creating space and opportunity for Dwight. Noah doesn't have that guy. even when he had rose it wasn't like Rose could spread the floor for Noah. i'm getting off point but I do think there's something to be said for the difference in production between guys who play with teammates who command double teams and those who don't. noahs best WS/48 seasons were with Rose, as he functions as chicagos "2".

I wasn't trying to be sly, I hadn't compared their USG (a reasonable point but also a bit slick for my book). Houston is a more successful offense but it'd be hard to argue that Dwight is responsible for that considering that they've only moved up 1.3 points in offensive rating since his arrival (for comparisons sake the team offensive rating improve by 4.2 points from the year before once Harden arrived). and i don't think Dwights holding Houston back offensively, i just think his impact is minimal. i'd never suggest that he's a negative, not yet.



Thats awful reasoning IMO.
why awful? lets look at their numbers and how close they were.

Lowry: PER @ 20.1, TS% @ .567, WS/48 @ .197, WS @ 11.7, 79 games.
Dragic: PER @ 21.4, TS@ .604, WS/48 @ .186, WS @ 10.3, 76 games.


despite the geography- when the numbers are that close don't we have to start narrowing it down and essentially reach for reasons to put one guy over another? lowrys team is in the playoffs, Dragics isn't. i don't know why you'd say that reasoning is awful, ultimately i'm rewarding the guy who's team had more success. in part you're arguing that thats what I should do with Dwight so how awful can the reasoning be?



This cant be true so plz correct me if Im wrong but what you're saying is that a #2 cant be better than "the man" on an inferior team, even if they are on equal footing as individuals?


I mean, I guess thats one way out getting out of a contradiction but it sounds nonsensical. History is littered with #2's that were better than inferior teams #1. You would have a great point if Noah was leading his team to a record in line with Dwight's Rockets, but if that were the case, the statistical makeup of the argument would look alot different.
of course. i'd never argue that a #2 can't be a better player than a guy who is the top option on another team.

were talking about two levels of criteria, production and team success. what i'm suggesting is that when gauging the team success portion of this analysis, the player who was more responsible for his teams success gets the most individual credit for it; they're perceived to have higher value and are given more credit for the 'winning'. i'm arguing that harden is that guy for Houston, and that two other players were close to Howards win-share production on Houston (of course he's the #2 but its spread around). nobody on the bulls was close to joakim. i'm arguing that Noah is more crucial to his teams 48 wins than Dwight was to Houstons 54; to me that levels out a six game gap in a discussion where I already think Noah has the better advanced line. i'm arguing that the six win difference between their respective teams is a wash in a situation where player A was the dominant force between team A's 48 wins, and player B isn't (i think this opinion is what you take most exception to? hear me out). that doesn't have to mean Noah is the better player, only that what he brought to the table was more essential to his teams wins and should be viewed as such. i mean isn't that how we analyze players in the MVP discussion as well? were we voting for Kobe for MVP in 2002 over Jason Kidd because he was the better player or had a better line? No, because Kidd was more crucial to his given teams success and Kobe got docked for playing with Shaq. maybe you could convince me that it's a poor method of analysis but at the end of the day you're not criticizing me you're criticizing the way voters have perceived player value and impact for a long time. you could maybe convince me that we should vote for the first teams differently than we do the MVP, but I dono.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/awards_2002.html#mvp

i'd also suggest that the drastic difference in their WS/48 does suggest a difference in impact and that they are not as close as you'd suggest when talking about their contributions to their teams success. .191 vs .160 in WS/48. but i'm picking up that you don't have the most credence for WS/48.

by the logic that you're convincing me to use, is Duncan not a reasonable vote ahead of Dwight considering the fact that his team won eight more games than Houston? the win gap between SA and Houston is bigger than the gap between Houston and the Bulls and Duncan has a higher PER and WS/48 by the slightest of margins over Dwight, and there's only a .4 difference in total win-shares, favoring Dwight. by your logic you should have put Duncan over Howard because he had similar production on a team that won more games.

i think i'd be easier to trap my argument by asking me why Davis isn't on my first team than taking the Noah route.

Im saying I might not agree with whatever contextual factors you are attributing here

I am playing alittle devils advocate but I genuinely dont understand how the same argument wouldn't apply in both scenarios. Its not like theres a wrong answer here, but I can admit my inconsistency when ranking these guys.
thats fair. but out of curiosity what do you consider to be your inconsistencies? i saw a respectable list. I think Paul was dominant enough to get votes despite missing the games he did. he wouldn't be my vote but I wouldn't consider you to be inconsistent for picking him. you've always valued peak above all else and Chris Pauls advanced line is the best available at the guard position. 62 games isn't 82 but its still a lot of production considering how much damage the guy does per minute. from a win shares perspective he's only decimals behind Harden, who didn't play 82 games either. i'm assuming that's what you're referring to considering your list?

Chronz
04-20-2014, 01:46 AM
.

As I understood it, defensive rating is marginal defense/marginal points per win. marginal defense being defined as individual minutes played/team minutes logged xteam defensive possession x league points per possession - defensive rating /100 and marginal points per win being defined as league points per game x team pace/league pace x 0.32. I could see how defensive rating isn't a good metric for the specifics of +/- but its loosely tied into the defensive rating stat in that it's a reflection of a given players points allowed per 100 defensive possessions

I don't see how individual stats like rebounding or blocks is a part of that equation.
Who told you that? Check the formula, "stops" tie directly into it, it defines "stops" as the boxscore metrics I alluded to earlier.

Check out the BBR glossary when you get a chance:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html


Stops = Stops1 + Stops2
where:

Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2

Outside of the boxscore metrics, it disperses credit equally among the players on the team, not on the floor, as PbP data doesn't go far back enough to do so, its basically a very rough estimate of +/- with individual boxscore stats influencing the credit. So if you see guys you feel gamble too much or sacrifice personal stats for team success, they are going to be under/overrated here.



when discussing team success are you talking wins or SRS? there's a big gap between Chicago and Houston, not trying to pull a sly one just asking your opinion.

lol sly, but to answer your q, its both. Im more of a SRS guy but at some point, you gotta have more faith in W/L, if a team is consistently poor in close games, it becomes a part of their make up. But in a situation where we are dealing with playoff teams, I would focus more on SRS.



he is in a secondary role, relative to what he does for his team. just because noah has a lower USG on a different team it doesn't change what Howards role is in Houston.
So then whats the significance of the term if the secondary player can still carry a bigger load than the #1?


of course not. i only brought up Jones and Parsons to suggest that a lot of that teams impact was spread around, with Howard being the clear cut #2.
Im not a fan of the ideas you infer from these stats. WS isn't a measure of ones load, its a measure of the efficiency given their role.



what you're saying about Harden is spot on. he is the worst off the ball/back door defense I've ever seen for a superstar and he holds them back defensively. but he's still their top guy, he's still that guy creating space and opportunity for Dwight. Noah doesn't have that guy. even when he had rose it wasn't like Rose could spread the floor for Noah. i'm getting off point but I do think there's something to be said for the difference in production between guys who play with teammates who command double teams and those who don't. noahs best WS/48 seasons were with Rose, as he functions as chicagos "2".
I dont see how you can reference Noah's superior WS rates with Rose, then go onto to allude that Rose doesn't "space the floor" as if that somehow negates any potential benefit of playing alongside Rose. My only point in mentioning Harden is that his defensive shortcomings are what hurt Dwights WS rates.


I wasn't trying to be sly, I hadn't compared their USG (a reasonable point but also a bit slick for my book). Houston is a more successful offense but it'd be hard to argue that Dwight is responsible for that considering that they've only moved up 1.3 points in offensive rating since his arrival (for comparisons sake the team offensive rating improve by 4.2 points from the year before once Harden arrived). and i don't think Dwights holding Houston back offensively, i just think his impact is minimal. i'd never suggest that he's a negative, not yet.
On most days, I would agree that Dwight's impact isnt that great offensively, sometimes I feel like his demand of post touches takes away from what the team does well, but other times he really is such an inside presence that he draws doubles that end up opening up the perimeter shots. IIRC, his +/- numbers certainly dont showcase a star offensive performer but I should double check them.

Looking at a team before and after is another form of +/-, it ignores the possibility of improvement/decline elsewhere, are we certain that the Rockets would have repeated their success given the health of the players who remained? Harden dealt with injuries that weren't there last year, all that said, you're telling me the Rockets did improve and if you're already a great offensive team, thats pretty impressive.




why awful? lets look at their numbers and how close they were.

Lowry: PER @ 20.1, TS% @ .567, WS/48 @ .197, WS @ 11.7, 79 games.
Dragic: PER @ 21.4, TS@ .604, WS/48 @ .186, WS @ 10.3, 76 games.


despite the geography- when the numbers are that close don't we have to start narrowing it down and essentially reach for reasons to put one guy over another? lowrys team is in the playoffs, Dragics isn't. i don't know why you'd say that reasoning is awful, ultimately i'm rewarding the guy who's team had more success. in part you're arguing that thats what I should do with Dwight so how awful can the reasoning be?
I think I've explained how I differ in breaking down team success, its not PHX fault they play in a tougher conference and still play with higher efficiency, this with Phoenix missing their 2nd best player for most of the year, though I suppose you could argue Toronto was shackled by Gay. The numbers are close tho, you're right about that, but Dragic is quite clearly posting the better offensive stats and (you're going to love this) had to play as his teams NUMBA 1 vs Lowry being more of a 2nd option offensively, at best a 1B option. That doesn't matter to me but it seems to be a driving force for you. Essentially, for you to go with Lowry, you would have to believe that hes a much bigger difference maker defensively. Im assuming +/- analysis strongly favors Dragic but feel free to double check that.

But really, with a comparison so close statistically, the aspects outside of the numbers might make the difference. One of those aspects is how the player meshes with others, when Dragic played with Bledsoe, he played more of a SG role, when Bledsoe went out, he went back to being the do it all PG, its a stark contrast to Lowry struggling to coexist with Gay, and then Kevin Martin before him. There might be nothing to this statement other than randomness or irrelevant context but I just wanted your thoughts on that. Does Dragic's ability to play either Guard spots matter to you?


To me, when you add it all up, Dragic is posting better offensive stats, hes on a team that performed better offensively that falls off to a greater degree without him. I dont think Lowry being in the East is a good enough reason to offset all that.


of course. i'd never argue that a #2 can't be a better player than a guy who is the top option on another team.

Then I dont understand the distinction.


were talking about two levels of criteria, production and team success. what i'm suggesting is that when gauging the team success portion of this analysis, the player who was more responsible for his teams success gets the most individual credit for it; they're perceived to have higher value and are given more credit for the 'winning'. i'm arguing that harden is that guy for Houston, and that two other players were close to Howards win-share production on Houston (of course he's the #2 but its spread around). nobody on the bulls was close to joakim. i'm arguing that Noah is more crucial to his teams 48 wins than Dwight was to Houstons 54;
Agree to disagree, I dont know if WS was was meant for anything other than gauging production/efficiency on its own, you can then subjectively assess it, but to gauge its relative ranking vs teammates doesn't vibe with me. I've just never seen that sort of analysis.


to me that levels out a six game gap in a discussion where I already think Noah has the better advanced line. i'm arguing that the six win difference between their respective teams is a wash in a situation where player A was the dominant force between team A's 48 wins, and player B isn't (i think this opinion is what you take most exception to? hear me out). that doesn't have to mean Noah is the better player, only that what he brought to the table was more essential to his teams wins and should be viewed as such. i mean isn't that how we analyze players in the MVP discussion as well? were we voting for Kobe for MVP in 2002 over Jason Kidd because he was the better player or had a better line? No, because Kidd was more crucial to his given teams success and Kobe got docked for playing with Shaq. maybe you could convince me that it's a poor method of analysis but at the end of the day you're not criticizing me you're criticizing the way voters have perceived player value and impact for a long time. you could maybe convince me that we should vote for the first teams differently than we do the MVP, but I dono.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/awards_2002.html#mvp
No Im criticizing you, we are both in agreement that the NBA has done a poor job awarding players for the MVP. Whatever factors you see that distinguish Noah from Dwight, are not as significant as the factors you have given for propping AD above both. Simply put, the argument you have made for Noah and Dwight doesn't change the fact that the statistical difference between those 2 is very insignificant, you've already agreed as much, but when compared to AD, the difference is profound. For you to have AD ahead of one but not the other is a glaring contradiction given what you have offered above. Which is fine, I do that all the time, but I dont chalk it up to stats, just a feeling of intangible worth, in those cases, I pay closer attention to +/- stats just to see if my hunch is backed in the impact column.

Can we atleast agree its a very close argument.


i'd also suggest that the drastic difference in their WS/48 does suggest a difference in impact and that they are not as close as you'd suggest when talking about their contributions to their teams success. .191 vs .160 in WS/48. but i'm picking up that you don't have the most credence for WS/48.
I do, its why I have Noah above Dwight as well, I did say I was playing some devils advocate here.


by the logic that you're convincing me to use, is Duncan not a reasonable vote ahead of Dwight considering the fact that his team won eight more games than Houston? the win gap between SA and Houston is bigger than the gap between Houston and the Bulls and Duncan has a higher PER and WS/48 by the slightest of margins over Dwight, and there's only a .4 difference in total win-shares, favoring Dwight. by your logic you should have put Duncan over Howard because he had similar production on a team that won more games.
Im not trying to convince you of anything, devils advocate, remember. Just found your reasoning curious is all.


i think i'd be easier to trap my argument by asking me why Davis isn't on my first team than taking the Noah route.
Umm thats exactly what I've been doing. The argument against Dwight would hold true for Noah in a comparison vs AD.


thats fair. but out of curiosity what do you consider to be your inconsistencies? i saw a respectable list. I think Paul was dominant enough to get votes despite missing the games he did. he wouldn't be my vote but I wouldn't consider you to be inconsistent for picking him. you've always valued peak above all else and Chris Pauls advanced line is the best available at the guard position. 62 games isn't 82 but its still a lot of production considering how much damage the guy does per minute. from a win shares perspective he's only decimals behind Harden, who didn't play 82 games either. i'm assuming that's what you're referring to considering your list?
Sometimes I feel its about the best player, other times the better season, and sometimes I go with the stats but other times I go with my gut feeling on a players intangible impact. We all do tho.

sunsfan88
04-20-2014, 03:45 AM
Is Dragic gonna be the first All NBA 2nd team player to have not been an All Star?

sunsfan88
04-20-2014, 03:55 AM
i put Lowry over Dragic because the Raptors finished with a respectable seed, while Phoenix is out. but they have the exact same record.


Dragic's team also SWEPT Lowry's team this season including at least one of those wins without Bledsoe.

IKnowHoops
04-20-2014, 03:57 AM
Curry
Harden
KD
Lebron
Blake

Hard for me to put Harden bc of his zero defense but not really any other option

This, but CP3 at PG I think.

IKnowHoops
04-20-2014, 03:58 AM
I think Dragic is overrated but I could be wrong.

goingfor28
04-20-2014, 03:59 AM
This, but CP3 at PG I think.

I'm cool w that
I'm a clippers fan and I didn't vote Cp3 only bc he missed 1/4 of the season

sunsfan88
04-20-2014, 04:17 AM
I think Dragic is overrated but I could be wrong.

Clearly he's overrated, he's the only thing that ESPN and everyone talks about. People hype him up like he's Jordan.

He couldn't even get his team into playoffs. Doesn't really matter if he plays in a tough conference and that he likely would have led his team to a top 3 record in the East if his team played in the East.

I don't know about you, but I'm kinda tired of all the Dragic threads we have on the NBA forum right now.

I'd like to see more threads for underrated guys like LeBron, Kobe, Durant, Dwight, Harden etc. It's disgusting that media talks more about guy like Dragic than those guys.

Chronz
04-20-2014, 02:44 PM
Is Dragic gonna be the first All NBA 2nd team player to have not been an All Star?

Thats an interesting question. I wanna say Billups or Deron have done it. Will check out BBR