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All-In
04-10-2014, 03:29 PM
ESPN came out with a “new” stat called Real Plus Minus. It takes raw plus/minus and factors how good the players your playing with, how good the players your playing against, home or away, back to back or one night of rest….this sounds familiar…

My understanding that I got from the APBRmetrics forum is that Real Plus Minus(RPM) is expected Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus(xRAPM) but with a twist….RPM doesn't take into account the value of a coach…so essentially RPM is xRAPM but without a coach adjustment.

Is this new stat better or worse than before now that it doesn’t have a coach adjustment?
How do you feel that ESPN took an already existing stat, made a small tweak and now calls it their own?
Is this good for the advancement of the analytics community that a mainstream outlet such as ESPN now shares the hard works of Jeremias Engelmann?
Do you think this is just another stupid advanced stat?

Thoughts?

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm

ManRam
04-10-2014, 03:48 PM
I'm listening to The Lowe Post as we speak. I kinda dove into things a little bit last night. I'll collect my thoughts later.


I'm a big fan of adjusted plus/minus stats. The ability to test their predictability makes them wildly powerful.

And, a precursor, I think when stats tell you something you DON'T expect or don't want to believe (ie. "my player is lower than I think he should be so this stat is crap"), rather than dismiss the stat it's probably better to step back, try to watch or think of that player in a different light, and see if maybe your biases or preexisting beliefs cloud things. I watched the Thunder/Clippers last night and just had my eyes fixed on Collison, for example. In his (small) role, he's flawless. And a player's role matters with these sorts of stats.

But all in all, I don't quite get the difference aside from the coach factor.


And I'm VERY happy ESPN has taken this on. It's such a great resource and something I think more and more people should be aware of. I'd be curious to see how Jeremais feels here.

slaker619
04-10-2014, 04:09 PM
Nice this gonna be useful for fantasy hopefully

tredigs
04-10-2014, 04:12 PM
Well, like virtually any stat, it doesn't attempt to comprehend particular team schemes or role, and as a result we get a # with limited context. But that said, I think it does a great job of understanding the worth of certain players in their particular role (even if it the net # will be seen as overvaluing certain players).

I'm glad they chose to use the multi-year version and not single season. That can produce some cloudy results in RAPM, even if it slightly muddies the results if people are just looking for a "most productive players this season" type stat.

And @OP, I'm pretty sure the creators had their hands all over this. I could be wrong, but I don't think ESPN made a slight alteration and stole the stat from Jerry and others who had a part in building it.

tredigs
04-10-2014, 04:13 PM
Nice this gonna be useful for fantasy hopefully

Negative ghost rider. Just stick to basketball-monster for that.

Goose17
04-10-2014, 04:46 PM
Curry is third. Behind only Lebron and Durant. I approve of this stat.

All-In
04-10-2014, 04:59 PM
The thing is with a stat like this being ESPN hopefully people aren’t going to start arguing that Ryan Hollins is one of the best defensive centers in the game or that DeAndre Jordan is the BEST center in the game because of their RPM ranking…it tells part of the story…not an end all be all…but it does give life to guys who don’t light up the boxscore but do other things well like Draymond Green or Tiago

All-In
04-10-2014, 05:11 PM
Well, like virtually any stat, it doesn't attempt to comprehend particular team schemes or role, and as a result we get a # with limited context. But that said, I think it does a great job of understanding the worth of certain players in their particular role (even if it the net # will be seen as overvaluing certain players).

I'm glad they chose to use the multi-year version and not single season. That can produce some cloudy results in RAPM, even if it slightly muddies the results if people are just looking for a "most productive players this season" type stat.

And @OP, I'm pretty sure the creators had their hands all over this. I could be wrong, but I don't think ESPN made a slight alteration and stole the stat from Jerry and others who had a part in building it.

Yea your right…I think guys like Kevin Pelton, Kevin Arnovitz, Henry Abbott along with guys like Royce Webb were instrumental in figuring out what went into RPM….it just feels like ESPN made a simple tweak and now its their own new stat because on some ESPN truehoop blogs talking about RPM there haven’t been many mentions of Jeremias Engelmann and his hard work…I just wish they give more credit to the people that got the ball rolling on this…but you are right…they didn’t just make a simple tweak and now its theirs….it just feels like it lol

tredigs
04-10-2014, 05:31 PM
Curry is third. Behind only Lebron and Durant. I approve of this stat.

In WAR at least. By strictly their multi-year RPM it goes Lebron, CP3, Iguodala, Durant, Dirk, Nick Collison, Curry, Duncan.

I just checked the Warriors rundown and Iguodala + Draymond Green rank #1 and 2 for D-RPM at the wing position. Bogut ranks #2 with Marc Gasol - only behind Garnett for top D-RPM for centers (there's those prior years coming into play) - and Curry ranks #1 at PG for O-RPM (behind Lebron and KD overall). Klay ranks 6th for SG's in RPM and 3rd behind Dragic and Harden in WAR. D. Lee ranks around the 90 and 130 mark overall for WAR and RPM...

If there's ever a stat that confirms my belief that were a better team with Draymond in place of D. Lee this is it.

ManRam
04-10-2014, 06:33 PM
Curry is third. Behind only Lebron and Durant. I approve of this stat.

And that's precisely how it shouldn't work...but surely how it does.

"My favorite player ranks such-and-such, therefore I approve/don't approve of this stat"...

J.E.
04-15-2014, 04:49 AM
Thanks for the kind words everybody. I'm glad you guys like it.

Also, you don't have to worry about me - I sold it to ESPN. They didn't "steal" it or anything

Lakers + Giants
04-15-2014, 05:00 AM
And that's precisely how it shouldn't work...but surely how it does.

"My favorite player ranks such-and-such, therefore I approve/don't approve of this stat"...

The lakers commentators said Ryan Kelly ranked 2nd in this stat for all rookies, therefore I approve of this stat.

tredigs
04-15-2014, 05:12 AM
Thanks for the kind words everybody. I'm glad you guys like it.

Also, you don't have to worry about me - I sold it to ESPN. They didn't "steal" it or anything

Cheers, glad to see the hard work had its payoff. I'm also glad it was to ESPN (for exposure reasons) and that the high rankings of players like Colliison and Draymond Green can help spur a casual fan to ask "why?" and try seek out the answers for it while watching their games.

Duncan = Donkey
04-15-2014, 07:32 AM
Seeing Channing Frye that high on the list, means it has flaws somewhere lol.

Goose17
04-15-2014, 01:49 PM
And that's precisely how it shouldn't work...but surely how it does.

"My favorite player ranks such-and-such, therefore I approve/don't approve of this stat"...

lol, you know I was joking based on your previous post before mine right?