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View Full Version : O.S.Q.O.T.D.: Is KAJ scoring record unbreakable?



JasonJohnHorn
04-06-2014, 07:40 AM
Yesterday marked the 30th anniversary of the day KAJ passed Wilt Chamerlian on the all-time scoring list.

The most impressive part of this is the fact that KAJ played all four years in college before setting this record, while players like Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and LBJ all passed college, giving each a chance to amass points over 4 season which KAJ didn't play in the NBA, yet none are on pace to pass him.

Is this record unbreakable? Or could somebody like KD, LBJ or Kobe break it?

BullsFan_1
04-06-2014, 07:48 AM
Lebron would have to average around 24 a game for the next 8 seasons to break it, which means he'd have to play at a pretty high level until he's at least 37 years old. Not out of the question, but it'd be tough.

torocan
04-06-2014, 08:52 AM
With advances in medicine, training and nutrition, it's possible that KD or Lebron could play long enough to break it. KD probably has a better chance as jump shooters tend to suffer less decline than highly athletic players like Lebron.

As for the record itself, it will eventually be broken. With money being expended on stem cell research, it's almost inevitable that engineered tissue replacement for cartilage, muscle and tendons will extend player careers long enough to allow the best players to play well into their 40s and possibly even their 50s.

Will KD and LBJl be playing long enough to fully benefit from those advances? No idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if LBJ and KD stop playing basketball before that area of medicine is fully realized for professional athletes.

Unfortunately for both LBJ and KD, they may have been born a few decades too soon...

TylerSL
04-06-2014, 03:33 PM
If Lebron avoids injury he will probably take it. If Durant stays healthy he may take it as well.

Hawkeye15
04-06-2014, 03:41 PM
LBJ may, but I doubt it. Durant has a better chance. If he plays till age 38, if he averages 23 a game and doesn't get hurt much, he will break it. Figuring in that the next 5 years, he will probably average around 30 a game, and that makes it much easier for him to be a 19-20 ppg scorer in his mid to late 30's, and still get there.

Sadds The Gr8
04-06-2014, 03:43 PM
I don't think LBJ scores at a high enough volume. I'd be really surprised if he did it. I think KD can break it though

Hawkeye15
04-06-2014, 03:47 PM
Kobe missing this year really hurts any chance he has. That was another 2000 points he can't replace. Honestly, if he had played this year, gotten his 25 a game, and been sitting around 33,300 at seasons end, I could see him playing the next 2 years, and then signing a 1-2 year deal to make sure he broke the record. But right now, he would be around age 39 if he was to break the record. I just don't know if he plays that long.

I suppose it wouldn't surprise me if Kobe became motivated by breaking that record in a couple of years.

Hawkeye15
04-06-2014, 03:48 PM
I don't think LBJ scores at a high enough volume. I'd be really surprised if he did it. I think KD can break it though

well, LeBron is the youngest player to 23,000, but that is probably because he was scoring 20/game at age 19, and has never been hurt. I don't think he will reach it either.

slashsnake
04-06-2014, 04:17 PM
I don't think LBJ scores at a high enough volume. I'd be really surprised if he did it. I think KD can break it though

Well it will be tough for Lebron or anyone too. Takes a lot of being healthy and wanting to play. But LBJ is 3rd all time in points per game behind only Wilt and MJ. Even this year in a "down" scoring year for him, he is scoring more than Kobe, AI, or Melo average in their careers.

But here's why he won't. Kareem averaged 24.5 a game over 20 years while averaging 78 games a season. That is sick.

jerellh528
04-06-2014, 04:26 PM
Barring any major injuries or drastic early decline, I'm guessing kd will break it inevitably.

Hellcrooner
04-06-2014, 07:22 PM
kobe will.
HIs ego wont let him retire before its done.
So if he has to play until he is 45 playing 10 minutes from the bench on a lottery team and averaging 4points per game just to eventually make it, he will.

bleedprple&gold
04-06-2014, 08:42 PM
kobe will.
HIs ego wont let him retire before its done.
So if he has to play until he is 45 playing 10 minutes from the bench on a lottery team and averaging 4points per game just to eventually make it, he will.

His ego also won't allow himself to keep playing if he's only averaging 4 ppg off the bench on a lottery team.

mightybosstone
04-06-2014, 08:51 PM
It's not necessarily likely, but it's totally breakable. Kobe, Lebron and Durant all feasibly have a chance to do it. I'd give Lebron the edge to do it, because he's far along enough in his career that we start having that discussion, but still young enough in his prime that it's a real possibility.

Consider that Lebron will be roughly 15,300 points away from Kareem by the end of this season. Based on his current production and basic health, I don't think the following is out of the question:
14-15 (30 years old): 27 points, 78 games (2,106)
15-16 (31): 27 points, 78 games (2,106)
16-17 (32): 26 points, 75 games (1,950)
17-18 (33): 26 points, 75 games (1,950)
18-19 (34): 25 points, 72 games (1,800)
19-20 (35): 25 points, 72 games (1,800)
20-21 (36): 22 points, 70 games (1,540)
21-22 (37): 20 points, 70 games (1,400)
22-23 (38): 15 points, 60 games (900)

That's 15,552 points over 9 years or 1,728 points per season. If he plays an average of 75 games a season, that's basically 23 points he has to average over the next 9 years. That's not that unreasonable to me.

jerellh528
04-07-2014, 04:06 AM
It's not necessarily likely, but it's totally breakable. Kobe, Lebron and Durant all feasibly have a chance to do it. I'd give Lebron the edge to do it, because he's far along enough in his career that we start having that discussion, but still young enough in his prime that it's a real possibility.

Consider that Lebron will be roughly 15,300 points away from Kareem by the end of this season. Based on his current production and basic health, I don't think the following is out of the question:
14-15 (30 years old): 27 points, 78 games (2,106)
15-16 (31): 27 points, 78 games (2,106)
16-17 (32): 26 points, 75 games (1,950)
17-18 (33): 26 points, 75 games (1,950)
18-19 (34): 25 points, 72 games (1,800)
19-20 (35): 25 points, 72 games (1,800)
20-21 (36): 22 points, 70 games (1,540)
21-22 (37): 20 points, 70 games (1,400)
22-23 (38): 15 points, 60 games (900)

That's 15,552 points over 9 years or 1,728 points per season. If he plays an average of 75 games a season, that's basically 23 points he has to average over the next 9 years. That's not that unreasonable to me.

Actually looking at it like you posted it makes it look a lot more unfeasible to me now. That's a lot of games and a lot of seasons to continue to keep healthy through. And honestly I don't see lbj averaging 25+ At age 34/35 ish, I mean he's towards the tail end of his prime and barely putting up 26 and a half the past 2 seasons.

FlashBolt
04-07-2014, 09:48 AM
LeBron is #3 in PPG history. Slightly behind, KD at #4. KD has more of a chance at this point. He can certainly outscore the one year he never had that James had. IMO, forming a superteam really hurt James in achieving the most points he could. He would probably be around 24-25000 points right now if he had to Cleveland it. Don't think he'll get it. If anything, maybe past Karl. One thing I don't get though is why people forget about Kobe. It's still possible for him to pass KAJ. In fact, if it weren't for the injury and lost season, I have no doubt he would have passed him. Once the talking gets going, you know Kobe is going to try and go for it.