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jtchilln
02-16-2014, 11:39 AM
Ken Rosenthal‏@Ken_Rosenthal·3 mins
BREAKING: Ryan Dempster will not pitch for #RedSox in 2014 due to physical reasons and his desire to spend more time with his kids.

jtchilln
02-16-2014, 11:41 AM
$13mil to spend now if they want.

Station 13
02-16-2014, 11:47 AM
Yikes. Wonder what he is facing?

Sweet_Caroline
02-16-2014, 11:49 AM
Not much of anything to spend it on left in FA unless they bring back Drew. My guess is the money is banked until July and if they are in contention it will be nice to have that money to add players.

More importantly I hope everything is OK with him. I met him once at Wrigley and talked with my friend and I for like 30 minutes and he seems like a really nice guy.

Soxfan85
02-16-2014, 11:56 AM
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes now

Dempster was scheduled to meet with media today at 11. Was presented as routine. Now it may be retirement announcement

Boston Red Sox ‏@RedSox 9s

Ryan Dempster announces that he will not pitch in 2014. He will retire after 16 @MLB seasons.

Towelie
02-16-2014, 12:10 PM
Good on him! If he feels like he can't pitch then good! I wouldn't want a guy going out who wasn't confident in his abilities. We have plenty of depth and I'd love to see Workman get a shot anyways. This opens up money, and opens up some room for younger guys.

AI
02-16-2014, 12:12 PM
Wow, did not expect this.

Soxfan85
02-16-2014, 12:15 PM
Thanks for helping us with the '13 WS! If he retires he retires with 1 ring.

GrkGawdofWalkz
02-16-2014, 12:44 PM
Well he earned his ring, so that's something. Now please bring back Drew. Personally, I am not confident in Middlebrooks at this point.

-Lavigne43-
02-16-2014, 01:11 PM
Good on him. He's a much better man than those who know they won't throw another pitch for the rest of their contract, but just go on the 60 day DL.

Also good thing we didn't trade a pitcher. We should probably look into signing a vet to a minor league deal, I don't know who's available. Our depth right now is

Lester
Lackey
Buchholz
Peavy
Doubront
--
Webster
RDLR?
Ranaudo
Barnes

You can't count on Buchholz, Peavy, or Doubront pitching for the entire season. Webster has a high upside, but obviously completely unreliable right now. Same with RDLR, I figured he would start or move to the pen quick, but now they definitely have to keep trying him at SP. Barnes and Ranaudo are more far off and would need to tear it up in AAA to get a shot before the trade deadline.

I forgot about Workman, he probably will fill that Aceves type role. Stretch him out as a starter and he's probably the 6th SP in the bullpen during April.

Soxfan85
02-16-2014, 01:39 PM
Vets that are available still

Barry Zito
Chris Capuano
Joe Saunders
Johan Santana

theGhost-isGone
02-16-2014, 01:49 PM
Vets that are available still

Barry Zito
Chris Capuano
Joe Saunders
Johan Santana

I wouldn't mind Cap or Saunders but the other two guys probably won't be worth the roster spot IMO.

bagwell368
02-16-2014, 01:53 PM
Vets that are available still

Barry Zito
Chris Capuano
Joe Saunders
Johan Santana

OK, no help there - I'd take Workman over any of those guys - maybe even w/o the price advantage.

Pay Drew for one year, promise not to impede him leaving. Move forward.

grandsalami
02-16-2014, 02:26 PM
His daughter has DiGeorge syndrome

Green_Monster
02-16-2014, 03:06 PM
Wow, I was not expecting this. He probably would've had to pitch out of the bullpen if he played.

The Allen
02-16-2014, 03:21 PM
Was split 50-50 on Dempster for the upcoming season, great club house guy and probably would have been a solid spot starter/long reliever for us this season but i also really want to see the younger arms this season and with Dempster doing this we will get the opportunity to see them. Not really "happy" about him leaving because i thought he had stuff still in the tank but family should always come first and he didn't feel he had it in him to pitch this year. Thanks for 2013 Demp.

ManRam
02-16-2014, 05:02 PM
Vets that are available still

Barry Zito
Chris Capuano
Joe Saunders
Johan Santana

Meh. No thanks.



I'm rather perplexed why he would leave all that money on the table, but hey, good!!!

That's a lot of money to just spend more time with your family a year earlier than he otherwise could have. Gotta imagine that neck issue was pretty severe.


Gotta get a Drew deal done now

RaginRondo17
02-16-2014, 05:52 PM
Meh. No thanks.



I'm rather perplexed why he would leave all that money on the table, but hey, good!!!

That's a lot of money to just spend more time with your family a year earlier than he otherwise could have. Gotta imagine that neck issue was pretty severe.


Gotta get a Drew deal done now

His daughter has DiGeorge Syndrome

Lackeyfan41
02-16-2014, 06:31 PM
This is good news for the Red Sox.

Drew will probably be coming back now. Would rather have the draft pick and money to reallocate somewhere else though...

B'sCeltsPatsSox
02-16-2014, 06:54 PM
Ya I wouldn't want them to try to find another veteran starting pitcher. We already have 5 and then have guys like Workman and Webster waiting around.

TheKid
02-17-2014, 05:36 AM
I'm hoping they don't use that money to sign Drew. I think he's a decent player and all, but I'd rather have the pick that comes from someone else signing him.

bagwell368
02-17-2014, 10:29 AM
I'm hoping they don't use that money to sign Drew. I think he's a decent player and all, but I'd rather have the pick that comes from someone else signing him.

How about nobody signs Drew until after the deadline, then there is no pick, and no Drew here, which means we have to live w/ WMB no matter what. If the Sox are not going to compete for the WS, fine. If they are, betweeen: WMB and JBJ, and other hitters having lesser years we won't score as many runs. Right now I have us for 100 less than last year. Drew can't fix that all by himself, but a platoon of Drew/WMB when Drew isn't taking a few games at SS helps the offense quite a bit, and XB/Drew on the D is much better than WMB/XB - in particular if they overplay them because the back-up isn't any better than replacement leve.

todu82
02-18-2014, 01:02 AM
Best wishes to him in whatever he does.

ciaban
02-18-2014, 11:05 AM
Meh. No thanks.



I'm rather perplexed why he would leave all that money on the table, but hey, good!!!

That's a lot of money to just spend more time with your family a year earlier than he otherwise could have. Gotta imagine that neck issue was pretty severe.


Gotta get a Drew deal done now
He had 13.5 after taxes and paying his agent what is he left with? 5-6 mill, which don't get me wrong, that's a lot, but to a guy with career earning near 90 million, it's not to much.

celtisox41
02-24-2014, 01:46 PM
Meh. No thanks.



I'm rather perplexed why he would leave all that money on the table, but hey, good!!!

That's a lot of money to just spend more time with your family a year earlier than he otherwise could have. Gotta imagine that neck issue was pretty severe.


Gotta get a Drew deal done now

Thank god dumpster won't be pitching this year, more room for the young guys and a guarantee that doubront will be in the rotation. Looks like they should've traded him for montero (just a rumor I know). As for drew I pray they don't resign him, they have no need for him whatsoever, with middlebrooks, bogaerts, and Herrera.

RedSoxtober
02-24-2014, 05:15 PM
Thank god dumpster won't be pitching this year, more room for the young guys and a guarantee that doubront will be in the rotation. Looks like they should've traded him for montero (just a rumor I know). As for drew I pray they don't resign him, they have no need for him whatsoever, with middlebrooks, bogaerts, and Herrera.
I get that people would like to see someone else have a shot but the emotion in this bothers me. Dempster was brought in to be a character guy who ate up innings somewhere around league average. He was pretty much what was expected: IP was a little low and his ERA+ a bit high which was somewhat predictable jumping into the AL East but otherwise he was pretty much spot on his career numbers. And that is to say nothing of the underlying reason for him to leave.

celtisox41
02-24-2014, 06:35 PM
I get that people would like to see someone else have a shot but the emotion in this bothers me. Dempster was brought in to be a character guy who ate up innings somewhere around league average. He was pretty much what was expected: IP was a little low and his ERA+ a bit high which was somewhat predictable jumping into the AL East but otherwise he was pretty much spot on his career numbers. And that is to say nothing of the underlying reason for him to leave.

He probably isn't a bad guy, but he had no business being in the rotation even last year. He wasn't worth 1 million let alone 13. I don't think teams should settle for a guy who can go out and eat innings, that seems like it's setting the bar pretty low. The Red Sox should have at least tried to get a better starter, with 13 million they could've signed one of the upper level free agents last year (not complaining about how last year turned out obviously). It should've been pretty clear that Dempster would be awful in the AL east when he was shelled in the AL with Texas

bagwell368
02-24-2014, 11:58 PM
He probably isn't a bad guy, but he had no business being in the rotation even last year. He wasn't worth 1 million let alone 13.

Rubbish. All you have to do is remove Dempsters innings with the AAAA catcher Lavarnway and his ERA is 3.91. Even with the crap innings from Lavarnway he was worth $6.3M according to FG, a far cry from $1M. Dempster was a key pitcher here in the spring, effectively our 2nd/3rd best for about 11 starts in a row.


I don't think teams should settle for a guy who can go out and eat innings, that seems like it's setting the bar pretty low.

That's the reality of the game.


The Red Sox should have at least tried to get a better starter, with 13 million they could've signed one of the upper level free agents last year (not complaining about how last year turned out obviously). It should've been pretty clear that Dempster would be awful in the AL east when he was shelled in the AL with Texas

He wasn't awful when he worked with good ML catchers, look it up.

As for WMB and Herrera being enough? Hope you are right, I don't think they will be.

filihok
02-25-2014, 12:42 AM
I don't think teams should settle for a guy who can go out and eat innings, that seems like it's setting the bar pretty low.
That's because the idea of an "innings eater" is wrong.

If you look at the distribution of pitching performances

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/what-is-an-ace-2013/

you'll see that the average team gets about 42 starts a year from guys who put up a line like
5.55 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA

A guy who can make 30 starts a year while putting up any kind of decent numbers has value.


People vastly underestimate the number of decent starters in the MLB

bagwell368
02-25-2014, 09:21 AM
That's because the idea of an "innings eater" is wrong.

If you look at the distribution of pitching performances

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/what-is-an-ace-2013/

you'll see that the average team gets about 42 starts a year from guys who put up a line like
5.55 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA

A guy who can make 30 starts a year while putting up any kind of decent numbers has value.


People vastly underestimate the number of decent starters in the MLB

To amplify on that for long term posters of the this Forum: Lackey's first year was seen as 'awful', 'disasterous', etc. In part that came from his poor start, and in part it came from from expectations from his contract ($16.5M AAV).

According to FanGraphs he earned $15.6M in 2010 - he had 215 IP w/ a 4.15 xFIP - which is quite valuable. If he's your ace you're screwed, but as a #4? That's pretty fine. He also pitched very well in June, July, and September - but after April and May fans had made up their minds - that he was a bust. But he never was. 2011 was another story, but he had health issues that complicate that judgement as well.

celtisox41
02-25-2014, 02:52 PM
Rubbish. All you have to do is remove Dempsters innings with the AAAA catcher Lavarnway and his ERA is 3.91. Even with the crap innings from Lavarnway he was worth $6.3M according to FG, a far cry from $1M. Dempster was a key pitcher here in the spring, effectively our 2nd/3rd best for about 11 starts in a row.



That's the reality of the game.



He wasn't awful when he worked with good ML catchers, look it up.

As for WMB and Herrera being enough? Hope you are right, I don't think they will be.

A good pitcher should be able to pitch no matter who's catching, it's true that a good catcher should help, but dempsters been around over 10 years, if he doesn't know enough to shake off lavarnaways calls then that's on him

bagwell368
02-25-2014, 04:26 PM
A good pitcher should be able to pitch no matter who's catching, it's true that a good catcher should help

Sorry, but you already said two things that don't jibe - at all.


but dempsters been around over 10 years, if he doesn't know enough to shake off lavarnaways calls then that's on him

Umpires have different respect levels for catchers/framing/etc. you can't put it all on a pitcher, otherwise catchers mean nothing - but they do. They mean a great deal. Why else do most teams tolerate weak bats at C for D, and few run out big hitters who are crappy fielders? As an ex pitcher, and coach of pitchers, I can tell you that pitchers confidence and performance are greatly influenced by who catches them.

Dempster 2013:

Name G - IP ERA

DRoss 09 - 048.0 - 3.00
Salty 19 - 103,1 - 4.62
Lavrn 05 - 020.0 - 8.10

A number of posts in the fall/winter established that Salty was about 20-25% worse than the Ross/Tek/Shop (the good catchers around here the past 3-4 years - and below average in MLB), and that Lavarnway was a good deal worse then Salty.

Even with the meh catchers, Dempters earned half his salary. I don't think anyone that pays attention to this stuff wouldn't agree that Dempster would have done much better with a Ross/Tek combo than what he had.

For instance Lesters "bad years" were mostly caught by Salty and he did much better with the other guys he had. In his case he did OK with Lavarnway as well, but Salty killed him. A major reason why Salty is gone.

2011 Lester w/ Tek (7 G; 2.48 ERA) w/ Salty (23 G; 3.77 ERA) - 3.47 on the year
2012 Lester w/ Shop (7 G; 3.70 ERA) w/ Salty (19 G; 5.62 ERA) - 4.82 on the year.

Is a pro like Lester more able to deal with a bad catcher than a 16 yr old AAU pitcher? Hell yeah. Is he unaffected/made of stone? Hell no. Pitchers are just like horses in a paddock - all calm until a hot air balloon goes overhead...

RedSoxtober
02-25-2014, 07:02 PM
The Red Sox should have at least tried to get a better starter, with 13 million they could've signed one of the upper level free agents last year (not complaining about how last year turned out obviously).

Aside from what Bags already posted, let's look at this. Which ones in particular? Greinke? Yes, absurd.

Anibel Sanchez, Pettitte, Kuroda, Edwin Jackson, and Blanton were the other "big name" SP that were signed during the offseason. Sanchez had a great season but there was no sense committing 5yrs to him and no one really had a chance given his time in DET that preceded the deal. Pettitte and Kuroda didn't seem to be going anywhere but NYY and I doubt that either represented a decent option for the Sox. Kuroda's fade surely would not have helped in the WS run.

That leaves Blanton and Jackson. Hm... 8-18, 4.98 in the NL or 2-14, 6.04 in the NL over 8-9, 4.57 in the AL East? Yeah, glad that sentiment isn't driving the bus.

Maybe you would have gotten lucky on Ryu. I doubt it, but maybe.

This is the problem with statements like this. They take no account of the actual market (and even in hindsight look silly).

celtisox41
02-26-2014, 02:09 PM
Sorry, but you already said two things that don't jibe - at all.



Umpires have different respect levels for catchers/framing/etc. you can't put it all on a pitcher, otherwise catchers mean nothing - but they do. They mean a great deal. Why else do most teams tolerate weak bats at C for D, and few run out big hitters who are crappy fielders? As an ex pitcher, and coach of pitchers, I can tell you that pitchers confidence and performance are greatly influenced by who catches them.

Dempster 2013:

Name G - IP ERA

DRoss 09 - 048.0 - 3.00
Salty 19 - 103,1 - 4.62
Lavrn 05 - 020.0 - 8.10

A number of posts in the fall/winter established that Salty was about 20-25% worse than the Ross/Tek/Shop (the good catchers around here the past 3-4 years - and below average in MLB), and that Lavarnway was a good deal worse then Salty.

Even with the meh catchers, Dempters earned half his salary. I don't think anyone that pays attention to this stuff wouldn't agree that Dempster would have done much better with a Ross/Tek combo than what he had.

For instance Lesters "bad years" were mostly caught by Salty and he did much better with the other guys he had. In his case he did OK with Lavarnway as well, but Salty killed him. A major reason why Salty is gone.

2011 Lester w/ Tek (7 G; 2.48 ERA) w/ Salty (23 G; 3.77 ERA) - 3.47 on the year
2012 Lester w/ Shop (7 G; 3.70 ERA) w/ Salty (19 G; 5.62 ERA) - 4.82 on the year.

Is a pro like Lester more able to deal with a bad catcher than a 16 yr old AAU pitcher? Hell yeah. Is he unaffected/made of stone? Hell no. Pitchers are just like horses in a paddock - all calm until a hot air balloon goes overhead...

Alright you've got a point there, the first thing you quoted I was saying more of that a catcher can help but not hurt a pitcher. I'll accept that it does have an effect, but it shouldn't be such a dramatic difference that Dempster was almost useless after his average start to the season

celtisox41
02-26-2014, 02:13 PM
Aside from what Bags already posted, let's look at this. Which ones in particular? Greinke? Yes, absurd.

Anibel Sanchez, Pettitte, Kuroda, Edwin Jackson, and Blanton were the other "big name" SP that were signed during the offseason. Sanchez had a great season but there was no sense committing 5yrs to him and no one really had a chance given his time in DET that preceded the deal. Pettitte and Kuroda didn't seem to be going anywhere but NYY and I doubt that either represented a decent option for the Sox. Kuroda's fade surely would not have helped in the WS run.

That leaves Blanton and Jackson. Hm... 8-18, 4.98 in the NL or 2-14, 6.04 in the NL over 8-9, 4.57 in the AL East? Yeah, glad that sentiment isn't driving the bus.

Maybe you would have gotten lucky on Ryu. I doubt it, but maybe.

This is the problem with statements like this. They take no account of the actual market (and even in hindsight look silly).

How does that look silly? Pay an extra 5-6 million and you could've had Sanchez. How is Sanchez for 5 years worse than Dempster for 2? Sanchez would pitch what he's worth for about 3 years then below it for the next two. Dempster pitched below what he was worth for one year. Great acquisition.

bagwell368
02-26-2014, 04:54 PM
but it shouldn't be such a dramatic difference that Dempster was almost useless after his average start to the season

For sure it wasn't all on the catcher(s), but it was a solid factor at any rate.

RedSoxtober
02-27-2014, 06:05 PM
How does that look silly? Pay an extra 5-6 million and you could've had Sanchez. How is Sanchez for 5 years worse than Dempster for 2? Sanchez would pitch what he's worth for about 3 years then below it for the next two. Dempster pitched below what he was worth for one year. Great acquisition.

Read it again and it will make sense. If you do, you'll note that Sanchez WAS NOT AN OPTION in the same way that Kuroda and Pettite were not options. Theoretically they were but they were so tied to their previous club that they were not honestly looking elsewhere. The AVAILABLE options were Blanton and Jackson and even suggesting that you'd want to pay them what you paid Dempster (they signed for very similar deals) is silly.