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View Full Version : Does the Tanaka deal actually help the Red Sox?



wolf82
01-23-2014, 09:08 AM
Hey Guys,

I was wondering if the Tanaka deal actually helps the Red Sox. The reason why I think it will is that now that Tanaka signed a ridiculous contract, the other FA pitchers are gonna want big contracts too.

Thus, helping the Red Sox because they have several pitchers (Lackey, Dempster, and Peavy) who's contract look like a bargain compared to the FA out there, and now teams will be willing to trade with the Sox instead of over paying for a FA.


Do you guys think the Sox will now trade one of these three and get a good return because of that horrible contract the Yankees just handed out?

GeronimoSon
01-23-2014, 10:21 AM
Hey Guys,

I was wondering if the Tanaka deal actually helps the Red Sox. The reason why I think it will is that now that Tanaka signed a ridiculous contract, the other FA pitchers are gonna want big contracts too.

Thus, helping the Red Sox because they have several pitchers (Lackey, Dempster, and Peavy) who's contract look like a bargain compared to the FA out there, and now teams will be willing to trade with the Sox instead of over paying for a FA.


Do you guys think the Sox will now trade one of these three and get a good return because of that horrible contract the Yankees just handed out?

The short answer to this query is no.. with one caveat. Lackey could be a value to a team that is looking to contend in 2014 or 2015. His contract quirk (with the odd option) makes his value i.e. two years of control at $ 15.75MM total, attractive and worth giving up a decent return. The other two guys, not so much.

Walligans
01-23-2014, 10:32 AM
It probably helps us more than it hurts us. Theoretically, it hurts us because the Yankees improved their pitching. But that assumes that they wouldn't have gone out and signed Jimenez or Garza if they missed out on Tanaka. And I find that hard to believe.

It helps us in multiple ways. We get a larger revenue sharing rebate, since the Yankees are no longer eligible for theirs. I think it's safe to assume that the Yankees operate on some kind of a budget since they let Cano walk and have said they're done with big spending for the year. So it takes up a significant portion of their budget and handicaps them in their ability to address other large areas of need like their infield or their bullpen. It might also help if it inflates the pitching market. We're in pretty good shape pitching wise for 2015.

2015 Rotation
Lackey - $500,000 salary
Buchholz - $12.25 million salary
Doubront - First year of arbitration
Workman - Major league min.
Barnes - Major league min.
Webster - Major league min.
De La Rosa - Major league min.
Owens - Major league min.

And because we're a large market team and we have a lot of money coming off the books after next year, we could afford the inflated prices more than most of our competition. I could realistically see us signing one free agent pitcher (or extending Lester) and allowing the prospects to compete for a rotation spot.

wolf82
01-23-2014, 10:53 AM
It probably helps us more than it hurts us. Theoretically, it hurts us because the Yankees improved their pitching. But that assumes that they wouldn't have gone out and signed Jimenez or Garza if they missed out on Tanaka. And I find that hard to believe.

It helps us in multiple ways. We get a larger revenue sharing rebate, since the Yankees are no longer eligible for theirs. I think it's safe to assume that the Yankees operate on some kind of a budget since they let Cano walk and have said they're done with big spending for the year. So it takes up a significant portion of their budget and handicaps them in their ability to address other large areas of need like their infield or their bullpen. It might also help if it inflates the pitching market. We're in pretty good shape pitching wise for 2015.

2015 Rotation
Lackey - $500,000 salary
Buchholz - $12.25 million salary
Doubront - First year of arbitration
Workman - Major league min.
Barnes - Major league min.
Webster - Major league min.
De La Rosa - Major league min.
Owens - Major league min.

And because we're a large market team and we have a lot of money coming off the books after next year, we could afford the inflated prices more than most of our competition. I could realistically see us signing one free agent pitcher (or extending Lester) and allowing the prospects to compete for a rotation spot.

Yeah, that is true, if we traded say one of those 3 contract, the sox can use it towards resigning Lester.

Walligans
01-23-2014, 11:26 AM
Forgot to mention that the inflation of free agent contracts also increases the trade value for our pitchers. It could potentially increase the return that we'd get for someone like Ryan Dempster if we traded them.

Super.
01-23-2014, 08:25 PM
And then Garza goes and signs for below market value. Whomp

RedSoxtober
01-26-2014, 04:34 PM
Do you guys think the Sox will now trade one of these three and get a good return because of that horrible contract the Yankees just handed out?
Yes, it helps but not as much as you suggest. Several weeks ago I suggested that the Sox would be trading at least one pitcher and that the timing was going to be tied to resolution on the FA pitchers. I thought we'd see more movement about two weeks ago but many more teams felt they were "in" on Tanaka than I suspected. With that in mind, I don't think that the deal helps the Sox a LOT because it was always part of the landscape. I do think that the value of the deal helps them more than I'd anticipated because to overall value of the deal is about 50% more than what was expected.

On the other hand, consider that the remaining guys on the market are tied to FA compensation. That's probably WHY they are still on the market, in fact. If a team in reluctant to sign a "top" starter in exchange for an as-yet-unknown and unproven draft pick, are they going to be especially motivated to trade a more proven and closer-to-MLB prospect? Maybe not.

Net effect is probably slightly helpful to the Sox but not much.


And then Garza goes and signs for below market value. Whomp

My guess is that it's not below market if we could see the medicals.

todu82
01-27-2014, 01:08 AM
It helps us in that we have more money to compete to get players who can help the team now than the Yankees

GrkGawdofWalkz
01-27-2014, 12:28 PM
I would say that Garza is a better for the Red Sox than Tanaka's signing in any case. While it doesn't have a direct correlation, the age and relative success are there to show the case. While, Garza has a bit of an ailing resume as due to injuries, his numbers on terms of other starters: *Graciously taken from the Fangraphs article.

ERA-

•Rank: 34th out of 125
•Names nearby: Mat Latos, CC Sabathia, Adam Wainwright
FIP-

•Rank: 22nd out of 125
•Names nearby: James Shields, Jake Peavy, Jordan Zimmermann
xFIP-

•Rank: 23rd out of 125
•Names nearby: Hiroki Kuroda, Jeff Samardzija, Gio Gonzalez.