View Full Version : Top 10 Forwards in the NBA by: Brad Doolittle

01-10-2014, 01:32 PM
ESPN insider article. If you want a write up ask me, I can get it from insider.

How Top 10 rankings were derived

1. Players are based on TrueWARP, which is an attempt to measure the current actual value of each player's performance at this point of their career. The "WARP" part of the moniker comes from wins above replacement, while the "True" was added because you have to call it something. Henry Abbott was not consulted during the process of naming this metric, but hopefully he won't mind.

2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.

3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it. Obviously in the real world, the durability issues regarding players like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Brook Lopez have to be carefully considered.

4. Grouping players by position is always an inexact science, but I focused on how players have been deployed this season. The stats website 82games.com uses play-by-play data to track the percentage of time a player is used at each position, and I've used that as the basis for my grouping. Position classification is nebulous, but think of it like this: Players occupy a certain space on the floor, and the space they are assigned is usually determined by the players they share the court with. So Carmelo Anthony may be a natural 3, but the majority of the time the Knicks put him in lineups in which he is a 4.

1. Lebron
2. Love
3. Ryan Anderson
4. Melo
5. Griffin
6. Milsap
7. Aldridge
8. Ibaka
9. Dirk
10. Henson- Bucks
Next five:
A. Kenneth Faried
B. Terrance Jones
C. Greg Monroe
D. Thad Young
E. Zach Randolph

Also notable:
16. Amir Johnson
17. David Lee
18. Jordan Hill
20. David West
24. Josh MRoberts
25. Markief Morris
38. Taj Gibson
39. Kevin Garnett
40. Carlos Boozer

01-10-2014, 02:05 PM
Those articles make him look foolish. Anything that ranks Ryan Anderson over Aldridge and Blake is insanity.

01-10-2014, 02:07 PM
And you said forwards, so is it just power forwards I'm guessing? Is Lebron now considered a full-fledged 4?

01-10-2014, 02:31 PM
ya i was like where the **** is durant and paul george if this is forwards. definitely PF's.

01-10-2014, 03:12 PM
Stopped reading at Ryan Anderson.

01-10-2014, 03:14 PM

Are the top 5 PF's this year. I'm not counting players playing out of position who have spent their entire primes at another position.

01-10-2014, 04:09 PM
Holy hell man is this guy serious

01-10-2014, 04:11 PM
is paul george not ranked lol?

01-10-2014, 04:27 PM
is paul george not ranked lol?
Its PF's

01-10-2014, 04:33 PM
I don't think it's an awful list. Aldridge should probably be higher and Anderson lower, but Anderson is the leading scorer for a pretty solid team. Dirk should probably be a little higher too, imo, and as for as I'm concerned you can Melo out of the top 5.

01-10-2014, 04:37 PM
Prime example of why people should just stop trying to create an all encompassing "player evaluator" formula. Its not gonna happen. Just stop already. This is pathetic.

01-10-2014, 04:39 PM
You would think after spending all this time on a stupid formula, and checking the results it provided, you would choose NOT to publish this crap.

01-10-2014, 04:46 PM
Ryno has long been underrated...but he's not that good.

Really not sure how I feel about Doolittle's stuff here...but I honestly haven't sat down and looked at the formula. But his rankings have looked a bit weird, though, not awful. And as always, any statistical break down taking only into a count a few months of play is going to have some major oddities, like Ryno (who has played some great ball).

01-10-2014, 06:22 PM
Wtf why is Durant not there? You can't tell me because it's only SFs. Lebron is there. Who the hell gave this man a job?

01-10-2014, 07:16 PM
TrueWARP is not working out for these rankings

01-10-2014, 10:16 PM
Wtf why is Durant not there? You can't tell me because it's only SFs. Lebron is there. Who the hell gave this man a job?

Ikr I saw everyone mention PG but everyone forgot about Durant.

01-10-2014, 10:22 PM
Wtf why is Durant not there? You can't tell me because it's only SFs. Lebron is there. Who the hell gave this man a job?

Its for players who have played the 4. Its somewhat arbitrary but you cant deny his minutes alongside Battier fudge the line between 3 and 4. Durant is almost exclusively a 3-man because his coach is too stupid to take advantage of a similar setup.