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View Full Version : Red Sox to tender Bailey a contract?



-Lavigne43-
12-01-2013, 03:22 PM
Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 35m
A person I trust said #Redsox will tender contract to Andrew Bailey: Uehara insurance/trade chip/just 1-yr commitment at $4M range

Wtf? Makes no sense, he's not going to even be ready until August at the best after shoulder surgery, and who knows how effective he will be. Hopefully he's wrong.

bagwell368
12-01-2013, 03:56 PM
I had this topic in the main off season thread. Only makes sense if his medicals are way ahead of schedule, and even then I wouldn't do it, he's way too brittle.

RedSoxtober
12-01-2013, 04:40 PM
Meanwhile...


Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes that Andrew Bailey is a "strong candidate" to be non-tendered.

Bailey would receive a salary north of $4 million in his final year of arbitration, and the Red Sox might not be willing to pay him that much since he's expected to miss half of 2014 while coming back from shoulder surgery. "Ben (Cherington) and I had a good conversation at the end of the year," Bailey said Saturday. "It's a business. We haven't had any contact yet." Bailey will begin a throwing program in January.roto

bagwell368
12-01-2013, 05:01 PM
Meanwhile...

roto

Will begin to throw next month? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

todu82
12-01-2013, 05:21 PM
Yeah, it's probably best to cut our losses with this guy. Shame to because he was a solid pitcher back in the day but he's riddled with injuries now.

Super.
12-01-2013, 07:38 PM
I hope Ben has learned his lesson about trading for closers.

Bailey, Melancon, and Hanrahan all bombed spectacularly for him.

filihok
12-01-2013, 07:50 PM
$4 million is basically peanuts in the MLB.

Trading for a guy with Bailey's upside at the deadline would almost certainly cost more than $4 million (in salary + prospects). He's potentially a huge late-season upgrade.

RedSoxtober
12-01-2013, 08:42 PM
$4 million is basically peanuts in the MLB.

Trading for a guy with Bailey's upside at the deadline would almost certainly cost more than $4 million (in salary + prospects). He's potentially a huge late-season upgrade.


14% of your discretionary spending is not insignificant.
$4M is not cheap for a full season of an RP
$4M is expensive if he never makes an appearance

BostonSports96
12-01-2013, 10:26 PM
Oh jesus.....bad move, he won't even pitch next season. He'll be 'close' in August and then break a nail in rehab.

bagwell368
12-01-2013, 10:40 PM
14% of your discretionary spending is not insignificant.
$4M is not cheap for a full season of an RP
$4M is expensive if he never makes an appearance


x2

I read someplace today while working on my sim that the number was going to be $4.3M.

win red sox
12-01-2013, 11:02 PM
4.3 million is just Bailey's arb number, I can see the sox tendering him a low base with escalators contract.

-Lavigne43-
12-02-2013, 12:22 AM
4 million for at best 2 months for a reliever is extremely expensive. Over a full season that would be 12 million. It's a terrible waste of money, for a guy who has done nothing the last two seasons for us. You can't even guarantee he will be 100% at any time next year. That money can be spent better

Bo Sox Fan
12-02-2013, 12:37 AM
This is bad business.

I wouldn't be surprised if we resigned Hanrahan too.

Walligans
12-02-2013, 01:04 AM
I'm guessing either the free agent prices for relievers are really inflated, or Bailey agreed to take less than the projected $4.3 million he'd make in arbitration in order to return. If he was non-tendered, he would have to pay his own medical expenses and would then have to hope he could find a job in July or August. Plus, he just had a kid and I believe he lives in the area. So there would be some incentive for him to take a pay cut to stay with the Sox.

I'm going to wait to pass judgement until we find out all the details.

bagwell368
12-02-2013, 07:51 AM
If he comes for vet min -> $1M with bonus money for games appeared in thresholds - it could work, or signs a two year deal with similar conditions.

As for Hanrahan, I don't think the staff really liked him (and his weight issues). I doubt he is given any offer unless he can prove good progress on his weight and his velocity. This could get done after ST (any team, not just the Sox).

GrkGawdofWalkz
12-02-2013, 01:27 PM
If he comes for vet min -> $1M with bonus money for games appeared in thresholds - it could work, or signs a two year deal with similar conditions.

As for Hanrahan, I don't think the staff really liked him (and his weight issues). I doubt he is given any offer unless he can prove good progress on his weight and his velocity. This could get done after ST (any team, not just the Sox).

I think Hanrahan has better stuff, but I agree overall with your assessment. I don't understand the willingness to tender a contract to a guy who obviously cannot stay healthy and isn't much more than a 7th inning reliever at this moment.

Station 13
12-02-2013, 08:22 PM
Terrible idea to give Bailey 4.5M for 6-8 weeks of pitching.

filihok
12-02-2013, 08:39 PM
It all depends on how one believes Bailey will perform once he's back.

STEAMER projects Bailey for a 3.63 FIP (significantly worse than his 2009 - 2011 prime) in 2014 which is 0.8 fWAR per 60 innings.

That's similar to guys like Tim Collins, Josh Outman, Jim Johnson

And better than Joe Smith, LaTroy Hawkins, and Grant Balfour.
Smith signed for about $5 million a year, Hawkins for $2.25 million, and Balfour hasn't signed yet, but I'd expect him to sign for about $8 million a year. Those 3 average to about $5 million a season.

Of course, they are expected to pitch for an entire season while Bailey will probably be back around the beginning of August. That's close to the trade deadline.

Suppose the Red Sox wanted to trade for a pitcher of Bailey's caliber at the deadline. They'd be expected to pick up the rest of his salary + give up some talent. If they acquired a pitcher with a $5 million contract they'd be expected to pay about (2/6 * $5 million) 1.7 million. Signing Bailey for $4 million is the equivalent, in expenditures, of trading for a $5 million reliever and giving up $2.3 million in prospect value. Would it take $2.3 million in prospect value to make that trade? I don't know.

*Mandatory disclaimer: STEAMER projections are but one way to estimate future value. Any differing expectation of future value will change the specific numbers involved above but not the underlying reasoning-which is the more important point.

You may expect better or worse performance from Bailey the rest of this season, and that'll change the calculations, but the idea is the same. If Bailey performs roughly as he has in the past, he's roughly worth the $4 million the Red Sox will be paying him.

-Lavigne43-
12-02-2013, 09:04 PM
Steamer projects that he's going to throw 55 innings next year, impossible since he's back in August at best. He also hasn't thrown that many innings since his rookie season. $war has him worth $0.3M total during his entire 2 seasons with the Red Sox. It's a stupid investment to give to an injury prone guy coming off a major surgery, who also was completely ineffective when he was able to pitch. Relievers being overvalued and terrible trade ideas in July doesn't make a bad signing in December worth it.

You are better off tacking that money onto a short term deal with a FA target, or getting low profile relief arms.

filihok
12-02-2013, 09:11 PM
Steamer projects that he's going to throw 55 innings next year,
The playing time projections are the less important parts of the projection since a projection system can never 'know' as much as a human regarding how a player will be used.

Station 13
12-02-2013, 09:14 PM
Steamer projects that he's going to throw 55 innings next year, impossible since he's back in August at best. He also hasn't thrown that many innings since his rookie season. $war has him worth $0.3M total during his entire 2 seasons with the Red Sox. It's a stupid investment to give to an injury prone guy coming off a major surgery, who also was completely ineffective when he was able to pitch. Relievers being overvalued and terrible trade ideas in July doesn't make a bad signing in December worth it.

You are better off tacking that money onto a short term deal with a FA target, or getting low profile relief arms.

Bailey is lucky to toss over 10 innings next year.

Towelie
12-02-2013, 10:39 PM
#RedSox today announced that club will not tender 2014 contracts to Andrew Bailey and Ryan Kalish. As a result, both become free agents.