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View Full Version : Red Sox expected to offer QO to Drew



-Lavigne43-
10-31-2013, 05:32 PM
BOSTON -- The Red Sox are planning to make the $14.1 million qualifying offer to shortstop Stephen Drew and first baseman Mike Napoli in addition to star outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

The Red Sox won a World Series thanks in part to their short-term deals, and Drew and Napoli became vital parts of the team after signing such deals. The Red Sox would be happy to bring them both back, but by making the qualifying offer, it also sets them up to receive compensatory first-round draft choices should either leave.

In the afterglow of the championship, Napoli said, "I want to be here. I love this place."

Napoli had originally agreed agreed to a $39 million, three-year deal with the Red Sox that was cut down to a $5 million, one-year guarantee plus considerable incentives after a chronic hip condition was discovered in the medical exam. He earned his $13 million this year via the incentives, and would seem in line to make at least that much per year on a multiyear deal after a fine season where he provided the power sought and proved very adept at first base. He hit .259 with 23 homers and 92 RBI.

Drew played on a one-year deal for $9.5 million this year and is in line for a multiyear deal at a raise after having a nice season a full year removed from his ankle injury. Drew hit .253 with 13 home runs and 67 RBI and ranked high in OPS (.777) among shortstops.

For all the criticism of Drew's hitting in the playoffs, he was a major key defensively, which manager John Farrell appreciated.

Ellsbury is the second biggest star on the free-agent market, after Robinson Cano, so there never was a debate on a qualifying offer there.

It isn't known if catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia will also receive a qualifying offer. He had a pretty productive regular season but was replaced for the final three games of the World Series by veteran David Ross as Boston won the championship.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24166267/red-sox-plan-to-make-qualifying-offers-to-napoli-drew

Lackeyfan41
10-31-2013, 06:05 PM
This must mean they are fairly certain he won't take it..

It would create a jam at 3B/SS unless they plan on moving WMB.

I would like to see WMB at 3B next year and Bogs at SS. Then maybe bring in some competition for 3B.

Drew is great, I really like him at SS. But I just don't see how he really fits on this team next year

-Lavigne43-
10-31-2013, 06:09 PM
SS market is really weak. It's a risk, but I think Boras will look for more money in a multi year deal.

Super.
10-31-2013, 07:13 PM
Ugh

Station 13
10-31-2013, 07:41 PM
No way Drew accepts it.

Soxfan85
10-31-2013, 08:27 PM
I want Ells back but I think he will end up with Padres or Rangers

j-bay
10-31-2013, 08:49 PM
Think we go after McCann with Salty maybe leaving. Or is it too much money, and we give one of our minor league guys a chance?

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 09:05 PM
This must mean they are fairly certain he won't take it..

It would create a jam at 3B/SS unless they plan on moving WMB.

I would like to see WMB at 3B next year and Bogs at SS. Then maybe bring in some competition for 3B.

Drew is great, I really like him at SS. But I just don't see how he really fits on this team next year

I've been talking about this for months. The Sox don't trust WMB to be the regular 3B in '14. By signing Drew (which is likely), they will have a SS and a 3B, and 3rd/SS combo. If WMB works out well, they can deal Drew at the deadline. If somebody gets hurt, there is depth. We could also deal WMB if the Sox are really down on him.

Cecchini will be likely be the starting 3B by mid '15 no matter what happens to the others, so they only really need Drew in '14 - no need for multi-year deals.

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 09:06 PM
I want Ells back but I think he will end up with Padres or Rangers

It's over. Detroit, Skanks, Seattle, etc....

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 09:07 PM
No way Drew accepts it.

He's far more likely to take that deal than a 2 year deal for $18M, and perhaps a 3 year deal for $27.

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 09:08 PM
Think we go after McCann with Salty maybe leaving. Or is it too much money, and we give one of our minor league guys a chance?

It's possible. I mean there is more of a chance IMO of McCann being here then Ells - but still just a small one.

B'sCeltsPatsSox
10-31-2013, 10:00 PM
Drew just took a one year deal and is the obvious best SS on the market, he's gonna want a multi-year deal. Thank the heavens.

Lackeyfan41
10-31-2013, 11:14 PM
Think we go after McCann with Salty maybe leaving. Or is it too much money, and we give one of our minor league guys a chance?

I do not want McCann. It looks like he will be getting around/over 60 mil and 4 years, while he has declined his last 2 years. I would much rather go with Ross/Ruiz. That is if we can get Ruiz on a 1 or cheap 2 year deal.

With Drew, I don't think he is going to take the QO. He certainly may, but he should be lined up for a nice multiyear deal after his second best season of his career. It is a win/win for us with Drew, if he leaves we get a draft pick, if he stays we get a top 5-8 SS on a 1 year deal.

grandsalami
11-01-2013, 12:23 AM
High likelyhood we do what we did last offseason. We Wont sign any players with QO attached. So that means no McCann

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 06:33 AM
Drew has averaged 96.3 games played that past 3 seasons. He'll be 31 in March. He's streaky offensively. He's at most getting a 3 year deal. I could see 3/27. Well if he can get 14/1, all he has to do is get over 2/13 in his next contract to be ahead of 3/27.

GS: could call on McCann, we are not entering that sweepstakes. Vazquez advanced quicker than expected last year, and Lavarnway seemed to get in the grove when he played regularly. Ross is a rock and will get his 2/5 of the games.

If McCann was 3 years younger he might be worth a 6x18 sort of deal, but he's not.

wolf82
11-01-2013, 08:32 AM
I'd rather them go after another Ross type catcher. Good Defense and game calling.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 08:51 AM
I'd rather them go after another Ross type catcher. Good Defense and game calling.

He was the pick of the litter when we signed him (among savvy good D back-up catchers). I don't think there is another one we can get for a year that isn't 36+ with declining skills/health issues. If we go multi year than you start talking Ruiz who will get overpaid. If you do Ruiz, you are blocking the position a bit, and with Lavarnway, Vazquez, and Swihart all here or due here by 9/1/15, you might miss one of those guys being really good. Of course you could deal away Ruiz later on in his deal too - probably at a loss, but you might miss a guy because Ross and Ruiz and then Ruiz blocked them.

Nope I'd rather go with Ross, and the 3 amigos each getting a solid shot to see what's what.

JMP83
11-01-2013, 09:18 AM
High likelyhood we do what we did last offseason. We Wont sign any players with QO attached. So that means no McCann

I don't disagree, but mostly because there likely isn't a player out there that will have a QO attached and be worth it. They should have at least one supplementary pick this year (from Ellsbury), and moving back from 30 to 37 or so for the right FA would probably be okay with them, but the only one I could really see them being interested in would be McCann, and he's likely going to be overpaid considering his age and recent health problems.

aabar4518
11-01-2013, 11:20 AM
Quick thoughts:

1. I like the idea of bringing Drew back. We have the money to give him the 14/1, he's good defensively, plus provides another option at 3B/SS. Need to keep in mind that WMB and Xander are still very young players.
2. Why are we completely writing off Salty coming back? I realize he didn't play the last three WS games, but this was mostly because he was in a horrendous slump and couldn't hit the ball. I think he's a much better option than McCann for multiple reasons: (1) don't have to give up a draft pick, (2) is comparable, and (3) less expensive.

Thoughts?

Pittz
11-01-2013, 11:28 AM
I say we sign Cano and move him to 3B ;)

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 11:33 AM
Quick thoughts:

1. I like the idea of bringing Drew back. We have the money to give him the 14/1, he's good defensively, plus provides another option at 3B/SS. Need to keep in mind that WMB and Xander are still very young players.

XB will need a few days off here and there - which a sub is good enough to handle. However, WMB is a very shaky proposition to start and go with for 140 games at 3B in '14 - so Drew is a good option there.


2. Why are we completely writing off Salty coming back? I realize he didn't play the last three WS games, but this was mostly because he was in a horrendous slump and couldn't hit the ball. I think he's a much better option than McCann for multiple reasons: (1) don't have to give up a draft pick, (2) is comparable, and (3) less expensive.

Thoughts?

Salty calls poor games, can't throw runners out, and doesn't frame. He's well below average defensively. Considering he might get 3/27M and we have a well spring of catchers (Lavarnway, Vazquez, Swihart) coming along between now and 9/1/15 - no. Lavarnway is already a superior defender, and hit well when given a reasonable amount of PA over a span of games, Vazquez is possibly elite defensively and Swihart is likely to be no worse than average. Vazquez isn't likely to be a good hitter, but Lavarnway figures to be above average and Swihart could be very good. Why do we want Salty here to get in the way of all that? Get a LF here instead.

McCann sharts all over Salty, it's really not even worth arguing. Salty's best offensive year fits towards the back end of McCann's best 5 years with the bat.

per oWAR (McCann - Salty years over 300 PA's):

4.7
4.4
3.7
3.7 - 3.5
3.0
2.5 - 2.0
1.5 - 1.5
0.8 - 0.1

Salty will get less than McCann because he's worth less. McCann could get 4/68 and Salty 3/30. I don't want either, but if I had to choose, I'd take McCann. McCann is only 15 months older, but Salty was gassed from playing 131 games this year. McCann played 130 games+ 5 times and didn't fade like that. Going forward McCann shouldn't catch over 110 games anymore - but he's a good enough hitter to play at 1B or DH every now and then and not suck.

Did you see the numbers I posted for Lester in 2011 and 2012 with Salty vs other Sox catchers? Most of the crap Lester got for those years was because Salty sucked.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 11:46 AM
I say we sign Cano and move him to 3B ;)

Nah. Yanks deal us CC (+ $12M x 4) and Teixera (+ $15M x 3), for Peavy, Dempster, RDLR, WMB, and Coyle

Station 13
11-01-2013, 11:50 AM
As the top SS to hit the market, I see Drew getting a 3 year deal elsewhere. St. Louis or with the MFY likely front runner.

-Lavigne43-
11-01-2013, 12:08 PM
I think Salty's offense this season is a total aberration as well. .372 babip, no way he repeats that. He's still that ~.230/.290/.450 guy. If you are bad defensively you have to hit like a decent 1B to be worth it.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 12:35 PM
As the top SS to hit the market, I see Drew getting a 3 year deal elsewhere. St. Louis or with the MFY likely front runner.

It's unlikely if the Sox offer Drew a QO that a team will cough up $30M for 3 years + a draft pick

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 12:39 PM
I think Salty's offense this season is a total aberration as well. .372 babip, no way he repeats that. He's still that ~.230/.290/.450 guy. If you are bad defensively you have to hit like a decent 1B to be worth it.

Yup. Salty blows. Theo made a wise move to get him, we got real good value out of him, time to move away before the Sox do something stupid - such as paying him anymore money.

bcc
11-01-2013, 12:59 PM
Rather keep Drew over Saltalamacchia. At least Drew's glove is exceptional and he's put up a few good offensive seasons in the past. Salty just blows at everything. Bad UZR, one of the worst catchers at throwing out runners in the majors and a horrific approach to hitting that will not improve. Simply waves at balls; no modifications or two-strike adjustments....ever. Just can't watch any more of his AB's.

Pittz
11-01-2013, 01:40 PM
Nah. Yanks deal us CC (+ $12M x 4) and Teixera (+ $15M x 3), for Peavy, Dempster, RDLR, WMB, and Coyle

As ridiculous as that trade is, I don't even know if I would pull the trigger haha.

Just kidding, I would. But isn't it crazy how little elite talent the Yankees have, especially if Cano doesn't resign? I hope he does because it'll undoubtedly be a terrible deal and I expect it won't particularly help with their rebuild. But there's only two or three players I actually wouldn't mind seeing on our team, in Gardner, Robertson, and Kuroda.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 01:53 PM
As ridiculous as that trade is, I don't even know if I would pull the trigger haha.

Just kidding, I would. But isn't it crazy how little elite talent the Yankees have, especially if Cano doesn't resign? I hope he does because it'll undoubtedly be a terrible deal and I expect it won't particularly help with their rebuild. But there's only two or three players I actually wouldn't mind seeing on our team, in Gardner, Robertson, and Kuroda.

I was joking about Teix, but CC? I'd consider snagging him. He needs a change of scene. But you're right their roster is brutal with overpaid husks.

todu82
11-01-2013, 02:32 PM
Drew's a good player but I doubt he comes back next year. If we're signing free agents I think we have to go for Brian Mccann.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 02:48 PM
Drew's a good player but I doubt he comes back next year. If we're signing free agents I think we have to go for Brian Mccann.

McCann is a pipe dream - 4/68? for a guy that might be going into heavy decline the 2nd half of his deal and have to play some DH/1B to get him rest?

Try Lavarnway (.304/.342/.435) his last 22 games in 2013 who will get paid about 1/20th of what Salty would get on a QO and who is a better fielder than Salty.

Then consider Vazquez who is projected to be an elite defensive catcher with an improving batting eye - perhaps ready as early as mid '14.

Then Swihart, touted as a possible top 5 ML catcher ready from mid '15 into '16.

With that available now or in the near future plus Ross in 2014 what do we need with Salty?

B'sCeltsPatsSox
11-01-2013, 02:49 PM
What's the draft pick compensation for Salty? A second I'm assuming?

RedSoxtober
11-01-2013, 03:30 PM
Drew has averaged 96.3 games played that past 3 seasons. He'll be 31 in March. He's streaky offensively. He's at most getting a 3 year deal. I could see 3/27. Well if he can get 14/1, all he has to do is get over 2/13 in his next contract to be ahead of 3/27.
Absurd to insinuate games played over 3yrs has an effect on his contract. He had an horrendous ankle injury just after the 2011 ASG, surgery two days later, and rehabbed until a few weeks prior to the ASG in 2012. It's not like some GM is going to look at his stats and say "damn, this kid is injury prone."


Quick thoughts:

1. I like the idea of bringing Drew back. We have the money to give him the 14/1, he's good defensively, plus provides another option at 3B/SS. Need to keep in mind that WMB and Xander are still very young players.
2. Why are we completely writing off Salty coming back? I realize he didn't play the last three WS games, but this was mostly because he was in a horrendous slump and couldn't hit the ball. I think he's a much better option than McCann for multiple reasons: (1) don't have to give up a draft pick, (2) is comparable, and (3) less expensive.

Thoughts?
McCann average slash: .277/.350/.473
Salty average slash: .246/.310/.428

In what way are they comparable? Please don't use the walk year as some sort of comparison tool; Salty is hardly the first guy to have a career year in a walk year that he'll never repeat.


I think Salty's offense this season is a total aberration as well. .372 babip, no way he repeats that. He's still that ~.230/.290/.450 guy. If you are bad defensively you have to hit like a decent 1B to be worth it.
+1


I was joking about Teix, but CC? I'd consider snagging him. He needs a change of scene. But you're right their roster is brutal with overpaid husks.
Personally I doubt that a change of scenery helps. I think he's paying the toll of almost 1000IP from 2007-10. He's just shy of 2800IP after 13yrs in MLB (which started at age 20). I'm not sure he's going to be as MLB average as he was this year but I suspect that his years of dominance may be behind him.


What's the draft pick compensation for Salty? A second I'm assuming?
With the new system the whole A/B compensation that gave second round picks is virtually gone. The Sox have to make a Qualifying Offer (QO) -- $14.1M/1yr -- to be eligible for compensation and Salty has to decline it. If the team that signs him has a pick outside the top 10 then that team forfeits its pick. The Sox don't get it, the pick is just voided. The Sox get a sandwich pick between the first two rounds, the order being based on a ranking of the FAs.

AI
11-01-2013, 03:31 PM
I'm not so sure about this "not losing a draft pick" stuff. Last year? Sure, we had a top pick in every round, now we're picking LAST so I could definitely see them signing a guy with a QO attached to him if they feel that the player is worth it.

-Lavigne43-
11-01-2013, 04:33 PM
There's really no player worth giving up a draft pick and a ton of money for. If we get a big acquisition it will be through trade

StryderSox
11-01-2013, 04:57 PM
There's really no player worth giving up a draft pick and a ton of money for. If we get a big acquisition it will be through trade

I would be surprised to see the Sox make ANY big acquisitions at all this offseason. We just won the World Series and really only have Drew, Ellsbury, Napoli and Salty as potential loses to free agency.

We also have a number of young pieces that will be looking either to crack the lineup or to become everyday players. I look for the Sox to follow the same path as last offseason with signing value players and filling the holes with youngsters.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 07:32 PM
Absurd to insinuate games played over 3yrs has an effect on his contract. He had an horrendous ankle injury just after the 2011 ASG, surgery two days later, and rehabbed until a few weeks prior to the ASG in 2012. It's not like some GM is going to look at his stats and say "damn, this kid is injury prone."

Did you forget he missed ST and the first 8 games of 2013 due to injury and then missed games 83-98 inclusive for another injury? It would be ridiculous for a team not to take these things into consideration.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 07:37 PM
I would be surprised to see the Sox make ANY big acquisitions at all this offseason. We just won the World Series and really only have Drew, Ellsbury, Napoli and Salty as potential loses to free agency.

We also have a number of young pieces that will be looking either to crack the lineup or to become everyday players. I look for the Sox to follow the same path as last offseason with signing value players and filling the holes with youngsters.

Don't forget Breslow and Hanrahan.... hehehehhe

RedSoxtober
11-04-2013, 09:55 AM
Did you forget he missed ST and the first 8 games of 2013 due to injury and then missed games 83-98 inclusive for another injury? It would be ridiculous for a team not to take these things into consideration.

Yes, late ST and the first 8 games with a concussion. I don't put that in the same category of injury with which to be concerned when considering a player injury prone. The hamstring in June would be a bigger deal to me if there were a pattern of missing time for stuff like that (as with JD) but that's not the case.

-Lavigne43-
11-04-2013, 12:42 PM
@GordonEdes 7m
Red Sox not expected to offer Saltalamacchia a qualifying contract, according to a baseball source

RedSoxtober
11-04-2013, 02:43 PM
^^ Thank goodness.

bagwell368
11-04-2013, 03:14 PM
x2

bagwell368
11-04-2013, 05:11 PM
Mazz suggests a quid pro quo with Drew/uber agent. We gave them the $9.5M last year, and get back a pick from QO, but Drew won't take it.

We'll see. I would rather have him because:

1. If WMB has a killer spring, seizes the 3B job and actually turns into a .270/.325/.485 hitter, we can deal Drew - or I suppose sell high on WMB

2. If WMB can't get out of his own way, we use him as back-up 3B/1B, or in AAA, or a sell low deal when Cecchini gets here.

Seems like Drew for a year on balance makes more sense than not. He earned $16.9 FG WAR $ as the 7th best SS in the Majors - so bizarre that so many Sox fans dumped on him for not being Nomar circa 1999.

RedSoxtober
11-04-2013, 05:24 PM
Sox have officially made QOs to Drew, Ells, and Napoli. Please move the discussion over here (http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?843237-Official-Sox-make-qualifying-offers-to-Drew-Ellsbury-and-Napoli).