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View Full Version : Who would you rather face in the LCS?



todu82
10-10-2013, 09:43 AM
Detroit or Oakland? For me it'd be Oakland. Detroit's pitching could get hot at the right time and be tough to beat. Interested to get your opinions.

RedSoxtober
10-10-2013, 10:55 AM
OAK without even a second thought.


Less proven starters with very limited post season experience.
A similar OBP-oriented offense with less punch than the Sox has a good chance to go mute.
Lackey's familiarity with the OAK ballpark means that he could match up at #3 or #4 which is a good thing given his 5.57ERA over his last five starts. Play DET and he's GOT to pitch in Fenway due to the splits... but against a strong offensive club.

bagwell368
10-10-2013, 01:21 PM
Let's counter point a bit

Cabrera is way off from being right - he's a singles hitter right now.
Tigers pen isn't that hot and the best guy - Benoit got his bell rung in the LDS.
Oakland is playing very loose
Oakland has lots of guys that played here and are not liable to be rocked by coming back and may want a measure of revenge.
Oakland means long travel (more for them, but more for us too)

I just don't think it's clear cut. Probably Oakland is better to face, but...

poprocksncoke
10-10-2013, 01:30 PM
Let's counter point a bit

Cabrera is way off from being right - he's a singles hitter right now.
Tigers pen isn't that hot and the best guy - Benoit got his bell rung in the LDS.
Oakland is playing very loose
Oakland has lots of guys that played here and are not liable to be rocked by coming back and may want a measure of revenge.
Oakland means long travel (more for them, but more for us too)

I just don't think it's clear cut. Probably Oakland is better to face, but...

At first I wanted to face the A's, the more I think about it Im not sure. Like you said with Miggy hurting and the fact the Sox would have to travel to the west coast Im torn.

Sweet_Caroline
10-10-2013, 01:33 PM
The Tigers for purely selfish reason because I might be able to get to Detroit for a game. But overall I think Oakland and Detroit are pretty even especially with a hobbled Miguel Cabrera.

RedSoxtober
10-10-2013, 02:09 PM
Cabrera has been slowed down BUT they still have five other guys who posted an OPS+ of 110 or more. Their (regular season) rotation includes four guys who won 60% or more of their starts (oddly Verlander was the one who didn't). Eyeballing it, their SP staff k/bb looks to be about 3.4 which makes it more difficult for the Sox given their approach (hard to work pitchers when they just throw strikes). They do not, however, have a LHP.

OAK had just two guys win 60% of their starts and the ace is Colon at age 40.

AI
10-10-2013, 02:16 PM
I want Detroit.

B'sCeltsPatsSox
10-10-2013, 05:16 PM
Don't really have a preference tbh.

SirHizz
10-10-2013, 05:37 PM
Don't really have a preference tbh.

This!

You canot say with certainty which team is better/worse. They are facing each other in a game 5 of the ALDS for the 2nd year in a row. Maybe it's a match-up question for the Sox, but I think the regular season record against both of these teams is similar.
Frankly, it looks like neither team is (much) stronger than the other, so it's a question of sympathy for me...and Oakland wins in this categorie by far. It just means that I will be rooting for them tonight.

Super.
10-10-2013, 06:09 PM
I want to play Oakland simply due to the fact that the Tiger's top 3 pitchers were just phenomenal this season and I want nothing to do with that.

Bo Sox Fan
10-10-2013, 09:17 PM
I don't really care who we face to be honest, destiny is in our own hands.

The World Series is only 8 wins away if we play solid Red Sox baseball. We can beat anyone, that's already proven.

-Lavigne43-
10-10-2013, 10:59 PM
A hot Tigers team beats a hot Red Sox team in my opinion. Verlander's last 4 starts are scary. Jackson, Prince, and Hunter were horrible in the first round, will that continue? Game 4 is a must win vs Fister. Then you have to split the 6 games vs Scherzer, Verlander, and Sanchez.

tc2deuce
10-11-2013, 12:33 AM
so, the fact that this tiger team will be exhausted will not make any difference

-Lavigne43-
10-11-2013, 12:42 AM
I hope they are exhausted and it makes a difference. In case anyone misinterprets what I said, I'm not predicting that the Tigers will beat us. I'm saying if both teams were playing their best baseball the Tigers would win.

7chuck7
10-11-2013, 06:46 AM
I want Detroit.

You will wish you never said that a week from now.

RedSoxtober
10-11-2013, 08:46 AM
Verlander takes a no hitter late into the game, Cabrera hits a 2-run shot, and now they come to Boston. Yeah, this is not what I wanted.


so, the fact that this tiger team will be exhausted will not make any difference

Why will they be exhausted? Because they played one more game than the Sox, with a day off before AND after? Even with the plane ride they won't be exhausted and they spent too little time out west for the time difference to have effected them.

MG956
10-11-2013, 09:37 AM
Luckily we aren't matching up our pitchers 123 with their 123.

RedSoxtober
10-11-2013, 10:04 AM
Luckily we aren't matching up our pitchers 123 with their 123.

Sarcasm? I'm not sure why that would be lucky.

FWIW, here's my rotation:
Lester (vs Sanchez), Games 1 & 5
Lackey (vs Scherzer), Games 2 & 6
Peavy (vs Verlander), Game 3 & 7
Buchholz (vs Fister), Game 4

Lester seems to be a given. The series goes at least 5 games so he gets a couple of starts. Sox have only faced Sanchez once (2006) and the lack of familiarity tilts generally in favor of the SP... but he also flamed out the other night and has been prone to short runs of erratic pitching in his career. Sox might be able to take 2 in this matchup.

Lackey's insertion at #2 is simple: he's almost 2 runs better at home than away. He's not pitching all that well right now so he needs every advantage he can get. Going in game 2 and 6 means that he can pitch at home twice; it's the only slot for which that's true.

Peavy at #3 comes down to recent performance. Peavy was pretty dominant against the Rays and I like the bulldog mentality. He'll need to be locked in facing Verlander and I like his makeup in a potential game 7.

Buchholz in game 4? It's pretty simple: I don't trust him yet. I didn't expect him to return to his April/May form but let's face it, he's not even remotely close. I still don't think he's that comfortable on the mound and I'm a little afraid that he'll be easily rattled. He's living in the middle to top half of the strike zone, too, which is a recipe for disaster for his pitching-to-contact style. Until he pounds the bottom of the zone and induces more ground ball outs I don't want him in a bigger role.

Given the off days in the series, Lackey would be pitching with extra rest in game 6. Clay could work like a piggyback starter in game 7 on regular rest if Peavy struggled, too.

Ultimately I think the keys to the series are games 1 and 4. Win those and I think we have a good chance to take 2/3 in DET and need only split at home.

bagwell368
10-11-2013, 12:42 PM
Sarcasm? I'm not sure why that would be lucky.

FWIW, here's my rotation:
Lester (vs Sanchez), Games 1 & 5
Lackey (vs Scherzer), Games 2 & 6
Peavy (vs Verlander), Game 3 & 7
Buchholz (vs Fister), Game 4

Lester seems to be a given. The series goes at least 5 games so he gets a couple of starts. Sox have only faced Sanchez once (2006) and the lack of familiarity tilts generally in favor of the SP... but he also flamed out the other night and has been prone to short runs of erratic pitching in his career. Sox might be able to take 2 in this matchup.

Sanchez's arsenal, velocity, and placement seem to be a good combo for the Sox to face. This is the weak link in the Tigers starters IMO.


Lackey's insertion at #2 is simple: he's almost 2 runs better at home than away. He's not pitching all that well right now so he needs every advantage he can get. Going in game 2 and 6 means that he can pitch at home twice; it's the only slot for which that's true.

We beat Scherzer recently. He's good, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was a split - or both for us. If Scherzer beat us both starts, then Detroit wins.


Peavy at #3 comes down to recent performance. Peavy was pretty dominant against the Rays and I like the bulldog mentality. He'll need to be locked in facing Verlander and I like his makeup in a potential game 7.

Right. He's most driven of the Sox playoff starters, and may just amp himself up to match Verlander. I would very much like the Series to be over before game 7, with us headed to a date with the NL.


Buchholz in game 4? It's pretty simple: I don't trust him yet. I didn't expect him to return to his April/May form but let's face it, he's not even remotely close. I still don't think he's that comfortable on the mound and I'm a little afraid that he'll be easily rattled. He's living in the middle to top half of the strike zone, too, which is a recipe for disaster for his pitching-to-contact style. Until he pounds the bottom of the zone and induces more ground ball outs I don't want him in a bigger role.

Right. I'd be happy if the game was tied at the 2nd of 6, and both starters were gone.


Ultimately I think the keys to the series are games 1 and 4. Win those and I think we have a good chance to take 2/3 in DET and need only split at home.

Just have to take 4 out of 1, 2, 4, 5, 6.

Cabrera's HR was off a high inside fastball, so once he open his hips enough to get the barrel of the bat around with his excellent timing/hand-eye it was out. Against the Sox the only inside pitches will be under his hands, or more inside to spin him off the plate so the pitchers can work the outside in some safety.

The Tigers base running is stodgy and their fielding isn't that great either. I believe our hitting is better. It's a matter of Verlander and two more big time starts for them, or getting into that pen, and beating on some of their starters.

-Lavigne43-
10-11-2013, 12:45 PM
I think Farrell said yesterday Peavy was the game 4 starter. The only potential change was Clay pitching game 2 if we played the A's.

We beat Scherzer, but If I remember right it was a very low score. Lackey and Clay's starts in the ALDS worry me, both of them were bad. We have to win the Lester/Sanchez matchups and the Fister game.

AI
10-11-2013, 03:20 PM
Win game 1, steal game 2.

MG956
10-11-2013, 08:14 PM
Sarcasm? I'm not sure why that would be lucky.

FWIW, here's my rotation:
Lester (vs Sanchez), Games 1 & 5
Lackey (vs Scherzer), Games 2 & 6
Peavy (vs Verlander), Game 3 & 7
Buchholz (vs Fister), Game 4



It is lucky b/c Verlander is lights out right now, and we aren't burning our #1 on a loss. Peavy is a good matchup with him, and if we get lucky we split with Verlander.

We will be lucky to split with Scherzer too, but we have a good chance to take both home games.

If we don't take the first 2 games it is going to get uphill real fast. Games 6-7 are Scherzer & Verlander in our house, and we roll out Lackey & Peavy?

This 2013 Sox has been full of surprises but the Tigers are dialed in, and I had them as my favorite team in the spring.

If we win this series it won't be a sabermetrics equation, it will be because this Sox team has true grit. We can't beat them on paper, so we have to go out there and rip the wins from their grimey hands.

It's what we have done all year, and the break with the pitching match-ups is just enough of an advantage to tip us up 51/49.

This is a "flip a coin" series, and we need every break we can get.

bagwell368
10-12-2013, 06:10 AM
If we win this series it won't be a sabermetrics equation, it will be because this Sox team has true grit. We can't beat them on paper, so we have to go out there and rip the wins from their grimey hands.

Well, our base running, fielding, and bullpen are all better or much better. If Miggy is constrained offensively, than I think our offense is at least their equal. That leaves the starters. If the Tigers SP's pitch as well as they can, any team is dead.

My bet is the poor CS rate of the catchers will give the Sox a lot of chances to score runs. We need the top two to get on a good amount, enough xBH to get multiple run innings from slots 3-6, and long PA's by the lower 3rd to get into their pen by the middle of sixth to take advantage of that pen. All that happens we're in good shape. Verlander is the one least likely to get worked for high pitch counts and if he keeps the top two off the bases than we are going to have a hell of a time getting even 2 runs per start off him.

RedSoxtober
10-14-2013, 02:53 PM
^^ The problem, unfortunately, is that the DET are dialed in throwing strikes. This is the kind of pitching that stymies the Sox' typical grind-it-out approach; you just can't work the count effectively unless you're willing to foul off pitches simply for the sake of driving up the pitch count.

When the Sox took 2/3 from DET at home, they did so by becoming more aggressive at the plate than is their customary style. They may be well advised to employ these tactics again; getting behind in the count hasn't helped that much... and I don't really think that getting to the DET BP in the 8th really counts for working them to our advantage.

RedSoxtober
10-14-2013, 04:12 PM
Buchholz in game 4? It's pretty simple: I don't trust him yet. I didn't expect him to return to his April/May form but let's face it, he's not even remotely close. I still don't think he's that comfortable on the mound and I'm a little afraid that he'll be easily rattled. He's living in the middle to top half of the strike zone, too, which is a recipe for disaster for his pitching-to-contact style. Until he pounds the bottom of the zone and induces more ground ball outs I don't want him in a bigger role.

This seemed to be the formula for his poor exit. Don't get me wrong, he had some brilliant work during the game BUT he still seemed rattled when he gave up hits. I think he's forgotten Farrell's emphasis on getting back up and pitching quickly. At any rate, he seemed uncomfortable when the hits came and the sixth inning was a disaster. He was falling off the mound and leaving everything high. Reminded me of the '03 Sox when the duct-taped John Burkett had to make starts: if he didn't implode in the second inning then you'd better have a RP going in the fifth because he was about to come unglued.