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bagwell368
09-07-2013, 12:57 PM
It seems everything bad and good about him has been on display this year.

He was at .241/.303/.335 on May 20th, and .328/.382/.469 ever since.

Base running has been great, fielding very fine, near GG. Now the navicular bone - if it's season ending or turns him unproductive, it's a massive blow.

His price tag just went down as well. JBJ has a massive opportunity, hope he's like WMB 2nd time around.

AI
09-07-2013, 01:01 PM
Hopefully it's not too serious. It would be a huge blow to our team.

BGeer091
09-07-2013, 01:03 PM
This is a huge blow. I just hope that Bradley can step in and be productive. Positive side is his contract might have lowered for next year

-Lavigne43-
09-07-2013, 01:20 PM
I'm optimistic. Hes had this for what a week since he fouled the ball off his foot? Hes looked completely fine on the field since then. His speed hasn't been effected at all.

cigarman8
09-07-2013, 02:46 PM
Ellsbury is in walking boot that scare me

Nomar
09-07-2013, 03:03 PM
I think he'll play in the playoffs at least. After today we have a very tiny chance of losing the division. I'm fine with giving Ells rest and letting JBJ adjust.

j-bay
09-07-2013, 06:55 PM
NEW YORK -- The Boston Red Sox will be without center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury for the foreseeable future.

An industry source said Saturday that doctors are trying to determine whether Ellsbury has a deep bone bruise or fracture in his right foot, the result of fouling a ball off his foot Aug. 28 in a game at Fenway Park.

Ellsbury aggravated the injury Thursday night when he stole second base in the 10th inning of Boston's 9-8 win over the New York Yankees and did not respond to treatment Friday, according to manager John Farrell.

Ellsbury returned to Boston and underwent an examination an MRI on Saturday morning and was scheduled for additional testing, Farrell said. He also is scheduled to go to Denver to see Dr. Thomas Clanton of the Steadman Clinic for a second opinion.

"I don't think we're looking at something that is just day to day here," Farrell said Saturday. "But before we get into any kind of time frame, I think what's probably best for all involved here is to wait until we get more conclusive evidence and information."

The injury involves the navicular bone, the same bone that Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia fractured in his left foot with a foul ball in San Francisco in 2010. Pedroia was placed on the disabled list the next day, June 26, returned to play two games in August before returning to the DL for the rest of the season. He had surgery in the offseason in which a screw was inserted to promote healing.

The Red Sox recalled Jackie Bradley Jr. from Triple-A Pawtucket and started the rookie in center field for Saturday's game against the Yankees.

"We'll probably go day to day for the time being," Farrell said regarding Boston's outfield alignment.

Ellsbury, who leads the majors with 52 stolen bases, was batting .299 with a .355 on-base percentage. The speedster was batting .320 (24 for 75) in his last 17 games, with eight stolen bases in that span.

"Let's not kid ourselves," Farrell said. "Jacoby Ellsbury in the leadoff spot, with the stolen-base ability, the talent that he has -- this is a guy we're going to miss for the time being that he will be out."

The injury initially occurred in the seventh inning of the Aug. 28 game against the Orioles, when Ellsbury fouled a pitch off the top of his right foot, just below the shin guard. He remained in the game, beat out an infield hit, stole second and came around to score the game-tying run on a base hit by Pedroia.

Ellsbury did not take the field the next inning, but a fluoroscan taken of the foot came back negative, Farrell said, and Ellsbury was back in the lineup the next night.

Ellsbury played in the next five games before sitting out last Tuesday's game against the Tigers because of a swollen left thumb. He then started the next two games before sitting out Friday night.

"[Ellsbury] is frustrated," Farrell said. "He wants to be on the field. He feels like he can play right now. But at the direction of the medical people, we have to be careful with this.

"I can tell you this: Jacoby wants to be on the field. He's kind of [ticked] he's not here right now, to be honest with you."


http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9644004/jacoby-ellsbury-boston-red-sox-indefinitely-foot-injury

You have got to be ******** me.

Norieaga
09-08-2013, 06:09 PM
In the end, is a sub-.800 OPS and good defense worth the commitment he may require? I'm not keen on paying $100M or over that, I'd rather let him go. I'd offer 5yr/$80M and let him leave. He's a good player overall but just not worth too much more than that. He's a much better player than Crawford but it should be noted that they have similar OPS numbers.

Lackeyfan41
09-08-2013, 06:30 PM
It could linger and/or it could throw his timing off for the start of the playoffs.

Lets hope neither happen

bagwell368
09-08-2013, 09:53 PM
In the end, is a sub-.800 OPS and good defense worth the commitment he may require? I'm not keen on paying $100M or over that, I'd rather let him go. I'd offer 5yr/$80M and let him leave. He's a good player overall but just not worth too much more than that. He's a much better player than Crawford but it should be noted that they have similar OPS numbers.

IF you look deeper, CC couldn't hit in Fenway (as a TB or a BoSox) for a number of reasons (deep RCF in his power ally, tall thick grass, fans, etc.) Ellsbury is much more effective then Crawford as a Sox player, but he's still not worth the contract.

bagwell368
09-09-2013, 06:13 AM
Note the URL has to be spinned from EEEE to the 4 letter network

http://EEEE.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9651389/jacoby-ellsbury-boston-red-sox-compression-fracture-foot

displaced fracture, expect him back before end of the season.

Nighthawk
09-09-2013, 06:31 AM
Good news.... Were gunna need jacoby to do damage in the playoffs

RedSoxtober
09-09-2013, 11:20 AM
IF you look deeper, CC couldn't hit in Fenway (as a TB or a BoSox) for a number of reasons (deep RCF in his power ally, tall thick grass, fans, etc.) Ellsbury is much more effective then Crawford as a Sox player, but he's still not worth the contract.
Just to add onto the Crawford angle, the Sox bought into the idea that Crawford's increasing OPS (at the time of the deal) was an indicator that he was an emerging power hitter and paid him for the blend of power and speed. Ellsbury's return to "normal" (for him) power production should cure any thoughts along those lines from the Sox' perspective.


Note the URL has to be spinned from EEEE to the 4 letter network

http://EEEE.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9651389/jacoby-ellsbury-boston-red-sox-compression-fracture-foot

displaced fracture, expect him back before end of the season.

Lest anyone forget, this is essentially the same injury that Pedroia tried to come back from in 2010 before ultimately getting surgical screws to hold everything in place. I don't know how closely the actual injuries correspond but I'm not quite ready to buy into the party line (even before I begin to think about how slowly Ellsbury tends to come back from injury).

todu82
09-09-2013, 11:39 AM
Hope he won't be out to long. He's been playing great baseball this year.

-Lavigne43-
09-09-2013, 01:53 PM
Lest anyone forget, this is essentially the same injury that Pedroia tried to come back from in 2010 before ultimately getting surgical screws to hold everything in place. I don't know how closely the actual injuries correspond but I'm not quite ready to buy into the party line (even before I begin to think about how slowly Ellsbury tends to come back from injury).

Pedroia's was clearly more severe. Ellsbury played for a week after the injury occurred before an exam found a fracture. He was stealing bases and didn't look slowed at all. Given that I believe them when they say it's a very small fracture and that he will return. Pedroia couldn't walk, he was on crutches the next day.

bagwell368
09-09-2013, 04:19 PM
Lest anyone forget, this is essentially the same injury that Pedroia tried to come back from in 2010 before ultimately getting surgical screws to hold everything in place. I don't know how closely the actual injuries correspond but I'm not quite ready to buy into the party line (even before I begin to think about how slowly Ellsbury tends to come back from injury).

Lou said Pedroia's version of the injury was in a much more serious location. Also Cody Ross had that injury last year and given his return time, they must think Ells situation is more like that one.

RedSoxtober
09-10-2013, 10:30 AM
Yes, it appears to be less severe than Pedroia but perhaps comparable to Ross. Cody returned after a month away. If the same is true for Ellsbury then he'd come back about a week into October. The final game for the ALDS, if it goes to 5 games, is 10/10. If Ellsbury is on that kind of schedule then he would present a very difficult decision for Cherrington (add him to the ALDS roster?).

He really needs to be on a MUCH faster schedule than Ross. Ideally he returns for the BAL series that ends the season if not COL. Obviously he could skip to the start of the ALDS but not without question marks. Knocking the rust off during the playoffs doesn't seem like a confident position. Maybe the instrux? Even that is less than optimal.

Historically speaking he has not been quick to recover. That's what concerns me. Ross seemed like a guy who hated to be away; Ellsbury seems to be near the other end of the spectrum. The only thing that might work in our favor is that he's staring at FA and might want to prove his mettle.

Factor all that together and I'll consider the Sox' official position suspicious until I see him play.

bagwell368
09-10-2013, 01:17 PM
^ 98.5 says the reports are that the area at issue is smaller than Ross's, so there is some hope/planning vs. that fact, but there is no way to be sure how Ells will behave.

There is no way in knowing if Boras already has a wink wink deal for $90M for Ells. If so, Ells may have played his last game here. Risking injury or poor performance may also weaken his position for a deal.

If Ells does leave and does not play expect the Sox at several levels to point the fingers at Ells and Boras if the season ends badly... the evil genius will have a big hand in it too...

RedSoxtober
09-10-2013, 02:26 PM
Like most of life, the situation is complicated and messy with lots of divergent desires at play. That's precisely while I'm moving to Missouri on this one.

RedSoxtober
09-10-2013, 04:10 PM
Scott Boras, the agent for Jacoby Ellsbury, said today he expects the Red Sox center fielder to be back for the postseason, likely earlier.

According to Boras, the biggest issue for Ellsbury is the swelling in his right foot and not the small fracture on the surface of the navicular bone. The swelling is affecting the movement of a tendon coming from the tibia.

Once the swelling has gone down, Ellsbury will be able to start swinging a bat and proceed from there.

"The Red Sox' interests and our interests are the same in this, we clearly want Jacoby to be back for the postseason and we're all on the same page to make sure he's available," Boras said.Boston.com

RedSoxtober
09-19-2013, 04:37 PM
For the first time since Sept. 5, Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, recovering from a fracture in his right foot, was made available to the media. He spoke for four minutes.

Here's a transcript:

"How are you doing? "Taking it day by day. Working to get back on the field."
There's more here (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2013/09/ellsbury_very_confident_on_return_this_season.html ), but that's about all he says. Every response is "I'm doing what the docs said, pushing the envelope, and they're trying to get me back quickly." Yawn. He is still confident about coming back by season's end but not doing baseball activities.

RedSoxtober
09-21-2013, 09:28 AM
Jacoby Ellsbury hit off a tee [Friday, 9/20,] and played catch. These were his first baseball activities since being diagnosed with a broken bone in his right foot.Boston.com

Station 13
09-21-2013, 09:49 AM
There's more here (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2013/09/ellsbury_very_confident_on_return_this_season.html ), but that's about all he says. Every response is "I'm doing what the docs said, pushing the envelope, and they're trying to get me back quickly." Yawn. He is still confident about coming back by season's end but not doing baseball activities.

Made available? WTF does that even mean?

penuch
09-22-2013, 04:12 AM
Made available? WTF does that even mean?

Teams have the right to control who is available to talk to the media and who is not. Especially those recovering from injuries, aren't usually in the clubhouse when the media are so the team have to set aside time for them to talk.

RedSoxtober
09-23-2013, 08:30 AM
Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury has missed the last 14 games with a right foot fracture, but manager John Farrell said he is optimistic Ellsbury can return to the lineup as early as Wednesday.

The Red Sox play their final home game of the season against the Blue Jays Sunday, before closing out the schedule with two games against Colorado and a three game set with Baltimore.

"Hopefully he's in the lineup Wednesday," Farrell said before Sunday's game. "The work he's going through right now, the baseball activities, are starting to wrap up. There's been no setbacks. That's an optimistic view, but I'd hope we'd be able to get him some at bats that day."

Wednesday's game is at Colorado, meaning there is no designated hitter, ruling out the possibility of Ellsbury easing his way into the lineup. Farrell was optimistic Ellsbury could start in center field.

Before Sunday's game, Ellsbury was on the field playing catch with bullpen catcher Brian Abraham. Prior to the foot fracture, Ellsbury was hitting .320 in his last 17 games.

Farrell said he is looking for Ellsbury to show "further comfort with the increase and intensity of work he's been going through."Boston.com

bagwell368
10-02-2013, 06:38 AM
Hope Ells is great, but these games ahead are his swan song with the Sox IMO.

With money to be spent on:

C - Salty
1B - Napoli or Morales or Abreau
SS - Drew - QO probable because SS/3B FA's are weak, and WMB and XB have no back-up in house for '14, or viable stand-in if either slumps or is injured.
SP - take the option on Lester, or *gulp* extend him.
RP - always have to shuffle the deck with them

I don't see money on the scale available for signing Ells, even if they wanted to. He's getting a bare minimum of $18M per, and it could be as high as $22.5M per. Just give him the QO.

RedSoxtober
10-02-2013, 09:30 AM
Meh, I'm not at all persuaded by the idea that we don't have enough money to pay Ellsbury based on that.

C: Even if Salty doubles his income it's only a raise of $4.5M

1B: Napoli cost the Sox $13M this year. Perhaps he gets $28M-30M/2yrs. I doubt they go longer or higher given the wildcard of his hip. Barring that, they go with a less expensive option. At worst $2M raise.

SS: Drew has good and bad. While he's been very valuable at an important position, the overall numbers are not going to help him in negotiations. I doubt the Sox are willing to commit even medium term (3yr) money to him given the development of Bogaerts. If they do? Dunno, maybe $36M/3yr? Another 2.5M.

SP: Yes, take the option on Lester and then sort things out by season's end. That's effectively a $6.75M hit to the luxury tax. However, with Buchholz, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, and Peavy under contract and Webster, RDLR, Workman, Wright and possibly Barnes providing MiLB depth they're also VERY likely to deal from strength. Odds are they come up with a net savings here.

RP: Koji, Breslow, Tazawa, Morales, Miller seem like locks to return. Britton, De La Rosa, and Wilson have another shot. Thornton's an unknown but I'd guess unlikely given the stack of cheap LHP they've already got (he's at $6M/$1M buyout) that he's shown the door. Regardless, there's big savings here with Hanrahan, Bailey, and Bard putting roughly $14M back in the pot.

Peavy (+$14.5M) and Iglesias (-$2.2M) represent a net $12.3M increase over the $154M 2013 opening day payroll for 2014. Even without a likely trade to the SPs we're looking at a crew that only pushes the $160M-165M range. With $20M wiggle room against the luxury tax they could easily pay Ellsbury $20M-22M per year without running into trouble.

And 2014 represents a bubble. Lackey's deal drops to $500K for 2015. It's pretty likely (IMO) that the Sox plan on replacing him with a kid who makes something similar when the deal expires. At the same time Ortiz, Peavy, Dempster, Gomes, and Ross free up $47M after 2014 for a net savings of around $64M.

No, short term and long term the cash flow will not be a problem with respect to Ellsbury. Only the (lack of) wisdom of signing a recently-turned 30yr old with "young player skills" to a $20M+/yr, 5-8yr contract will alter the outcome. Ask the Cubs how that worked out with Soriano (who was a much bigger contributor with the bat than Ellsbury has been aside from 2011 -- he had 41 SB in his walk year and then 47SB over the next 3 seasons combined).

bagwell368
10-02-2013, 12:57 PM
Meh, I'm not at all persuaded by the idea that we don't have enough money to pay Ellsbury based on that.

C: Even if Salty doubles his income it's only a raise of $4.5M

Going to pay Ross $3.1M for '14 as well.


1B: Napoli cost the Sox $13M this year. Perhaps he gets $28M-30M/2yrs. I doubt they go longer or higher given the wildcard of his hip. Barring that, they go with a less expensive option. At worst $2M raise.

OK, Napoli 2 for $28M.


SS: Drew has good and bad. While he's been very valuable at an important position, the overall numbers are not going to help him in negotiations. I doubt the Sox are willing to commit even medium term (3yr) money to him given the development of Bogaerts. If they do? Dunno, maybe $36M/3yr? Another 2.5M.

Drew's numbers place him 7th among MLB SS's for 2013. Unless a GM subscribes to the Lucchie School of GM's, he's not going to be beat up on the numbers. I don't want him here for more than '14. I'm hoping the QO is so high compared to what he gets elsewhere that he comes back for '14, which covers the possible growing pains of WMB and XB. If so, that's $9.5M+.


SP: Yes, take the option on Lester and then sort things out by season's end. That's effectively a $6.75M hit to the luxury tax. However, with Buchholz, Dempster, Doubront, Lackey, and Peavy under contract and Webster, RDLR, Workman, Wright and possibly Barnes providing MiLB depth they're also VERY likely to deal from strength. Odds are they come up with a net savings here.

Peavy's $14.5M sits here all year however.
Lester goes up $1.4M for '14 if we option.
Buchholz goes up $2.2M for '14.

Doubront may never be worth more in a deal than this offseason. I don't see Dempster as drawing much/anything in a deal with his contract. If the Sox collapse, than Peavy could be dealt at the deadline - that would be big, but hardly a given during the time Ells would be signed if he is signed. I still think Doubront is the only SP going anywhere, his money is negligible, and we'd have to get a guy with less service time to get a break there.


RP: Koji, Breslow, Tazawa, Morales, Miller seem like locks to return. Britton, De La Rosa, and Wilson have another shot. Thornton's an unknown but I'd guess unlikely given the stack of cheap LHP they've already got (he's at $6M/$1M buyout) that he's shown the door. Regardless, there's big savings here with Hanrahan, Bailey, and Bard putting roughly $14M back in the pot.

Morales, Tazawa & Miller are in arb. We'll spend more, but yes less than $14M more on RP's.


Peavy (+$14.5M) and Iglesias (-$2.2M) represent a net $12.3M increase over the $154M 2013 opening day payroll for 2014.

Lester, Buchholz, and the arb players are all going up. Napoli was in the books at the start of '13 for $5M, and may now get $14M in '14. If Drew gets and takes the QO, it'll be a major difference. If we pay $22M AAV for Ellsbury, that's $13M above what he got in '13.


Even without a likely trade to the SPs we're looking at a crew that only pushes the $160M-165M range. With $20M wiggle room against the luxury tax they could easily pay Ellsbury $20M-22M per year without running into trouble.

Well, I think it's worse and the SP we are most likely to get anything for makes chump change.


And 2014 represents a bubble. Lackey's deal drops to $500K for 2015. It's pretty likely (IMO) that the Sox plan on replacing him with a kid who makes something similar when the deal expires. At the same time Ortiz, Peavy, Dempster, Gomes, and Ross free up $47M after 2014 for a net savings of around $64M.

Yes things get easier after '14 assuming the plan doesn't spring too many holes.


No, short term and long term the cash flow will not be a problem with respect to Ellsbury. Only the (lack of) wisdom of signing a recently-turned 30yr old with "young player skills" to a $20M+/yr, 5-8yr contract will alter the outcome. Ask the Cubs how that worked out with Soriano (who was a much bigger contributor with the bat than Ellsbury has been aside from 2011 -- he had 41 SB in his walk year and then 47SB over the next 3 seasons combined).

Soriano is a HR hitter, who has a poor OBP, is an awful fielding LF.

Soriano had 7.5 rWAR in 3696 PA's from 2007-2013 w/ the Cubs.
Ellsbury has 21.0 rWAR in 3024 PA's from 2007-2013 w/ the Sox.

Crawford is a much better comp for Ellsbury - but both were awful investments. Ells could work out for 3 or 4 years, but 5 or 6? Nah.

RedSoxtober
10-02-2013, 04:13 PM
Going to pay Ross $3.1M for '14 as well.
As in years past I'm taking 2013 as a baseline and then considering the differences. The Sox print money almost as fast as the Yankees so I'm taking the CBT (aka luxury tax) as the upper limit. With that as background, Ross' money is irrelevant because it does not change from 2013 to 2014.


Drew's numbers place him 7th among MLB SS's for 2013. Unless a GM subscribes to the Lucchie School of GM's, he's not going to be beat up on the numbers. I don't want him here for more than '14. I'm hoping the QO is so high compared to what he gets elsewhere that he comes back for '14, which covers the possible growing pains of WMB and XB. If so, that's $9.5M+.
Entirely reasonable to bring him back via QO. Personally I'd be quite happy because I'm running against the crowd and suggesting another half-season of XB in Pawtucket would be a good idea. Again, since I'm taking 2013 as the baseline, a QO increases 2014 by $4.5M.



Peavy's $14.5M sits here all year however.
Lester goes up $1.4M for '14 if we option.
Buchholz goes up $2.2M for '14.

True for absolute dollars but not CBT. Since they use AAV, Buchholz remains the same and Lester jumps from $6M/yr to $13M/yr (+$7M).


Doubront may never be worth more in a deal than this offseason. I don't see Dempster as drawing much/anything in a deal with his contract. If the Sox collapse, than Peavy could be dealt at the deadline - that would be big, but hardly a given during the time Ells would be signed if he is signed. I still think Doubront is the only SP going anywhere, his money is negligible, and we'd have to get a guy with less service time to get a break there.
All reasonable ideas about who gets dealt. Personally I'm more in favor of dealing Buchholz in a headline grabber because I see him returning the most value and alleviating the most headaches. I'll probably be disappointed there. Doubront probably is the next-best option. I'd be very willing to eat about 1/3 of Dempster's deal just to save money. Someone like the Rox (goodbye, Oswalt) or Marlins might like an innings eater at the back end of the rotation.

At best I'd guess that the net increase revolves around Peavy's deal and they'll absorb other pitching increases through a SP trade and ditching broken-down RPs.


Yes things get easier after '14 assuming the plan doesn't spring too many holes.
I can't quite go with you here. Any adjustments to right the ship will happen in-season. It's certainly Cherrington's style to look for a fix that last beyond a single season so that kind of fix will effect 2015. However, with $63M coming off the books in 2015 such a short-term fix is extraordinarily unlikely to hamper the team after 2014. The salary bubble bursts and the Sox are in great position to take advantage.


Soriano had 7.5 rWAR in 3696 PA's from 2007-2013 w/ the Cubs.
Ellsbury has 21.0 rWAR in 3024 PA's from 2007-2013 w/ the Sox.
Since the Cubs signed Soriano in 2007, to make the comp accurate we need to compare Soriano 2000-06 to Ellsbury 2007-13. In that span Soriano put up a .280/.326/.510 and 210 SB with a 19.2 WAR (FG) in ~4200 PA. Ellsbury is at .297/.350/.439 with 241SB for 23.7 WAR (FG). It's not a terrible comparison of their actual production. Soriano had a better blend of power and speed (34SB/34HR per yr) that was more likely to "age well" as compared to Ellsbury who's speed is likely to wane within the first three years of the deal.


Crawford is a much better comp for Ellsbury - but both were awful investments. Ells could work out for 3 or 4 years, but 5 or 6? Nah.

I'd also suggest that if you adjust Soriano's $18M/yr to today's market that it'll end up around the same $22M/yr that Crawford signed. Regardless, we agree on the right outcome. Ellsbury SHOULD NOT be signed; he will not earn his contract. The only point that I was trying to make is that the Red Sox could afford to pay him if they really wanted to.

BTW: mea culpa here... I omitted Pedroia's deal who adds about $7.75M/yr AAV as well.

Bo Sox Fan
10-02-2013, 04:44 PM
As far as outsiders to pick up this offseason, Brian Mcann and Mark Derosa intrigue me. Mcann, 3 years $36 mil to alternate with Lavarnway?

Overpay Drew and Napoli on similar 1 year deals, $14 million each? Have a left side infield of Boegarts, Middlebrooks and Drew. And I have 3 because you know 1 will hit the DL. Derosa can play 1st, 2nd and 3rd in a real bind. And obviously Pedroia is there.

Let Ellsbury walk, enter JBJ in center. Nava seems like the real deal. Even if his 2013 numbers drop off from his current .303 avg .385 obp .831 ops to say a .280 avg .362 obp .800, that is still very good for a 4th outfielder.

The pitching is basically set already, while picking up Lester's option is a given, I would NOT extend him knowing David Price is a free agent a year from now.

bagwell368
10-02-2013, 07:00 PM
As far as outsiders to pick up this offseason, Brian Mcann and Mark Derosa intrigue me. Mcann, 3 years $36 mil to alternate with Lavarnway?

It's not Mcann for Lavarnway, it's Salty that gets replaced. I think he'll cost too much and is already showing signs of decline/injury. I think we have to sign Salty or at the very least QO him.

Pittz
10-02-2013, 07:38 PM
It's not Mcann for Lavarnway, it's Salty that gets replaced. I think he'll cost too much and is already showing signs of decline/injury. I think we have to sign Salty or at the very least QO him.

BSF meant McCann would split time with Lavarnway, I'm pretty sure.

bagwell368
10-02-2013, 10:21 PM
BSF meant McCann would split time with Lavarnway, I'm pretty sure.

Yep, you're right, sorry...

But it would be a 4/1 alternation - and what happens with our fading $3.1M back-up?

bagwell368
10-02-2013, 10:36 PM
we need to compare Soriano 2000-06 to Ellsbury 2007-13. In that span Soriano put up a .280/.326/.510 and 210 SB with a 19.2 WAR (FG) in ~4200 PA. Ellsbury is at .297/.350/.439 with 241SB for 23.7 WAR (FG). It's not a terrible comparison of their actual production. Soriano had a better blend of power and speed (34SB/34HR per yr) that was more likely to "age well" as compared to Ellsbury who's speed is likely to wane within the first three years of the deal.

Just to nail it down, Soriano had 3490 PA's for his 19.2 rWAR (.00550 rWAR per PA) compared to Ellsbury's 21.0 rWAR in 3024 PA's (.00694 rWAR per PA) - or 20.8% more than Soriano. Soriano clearly collapsed since 2006 with a couple of exception years.


Ellsbury SHOULD NOT be signed; he will not earn his contract. The only point that I was trying to make is that the Red Sox could afford to pay him if they really wanted to.

Yup, I made the argument w/o checking the facts, but, it's still a big gulp if they do it, hopefully they don't.


BTW: mea culpa here... I omitted Pedroia's deal who adds about $7.75M/yr AAV as well.

Well, we'll see but getting more picks via QO's, protecting our "own" guys (some), and more promising young players by dealing 1 or 2 SP's might be the theme of the off season.

RedSoxtober
10-03-2013, 09:10 AM
Just to nail it down, Soriano had 3490 PA's for his 19.2 rWAR (.00550 rWAR per PA) compared to Ellsbury's 21.0 rWAR in 3024 PA's (.00694 rWAR per PA) - or 20.8% more than Soriano. Soriano clearly collapsed since 2006 with a couple of exception years.

That was why I mentioned him rather than Crawford. We've gotten to see a similar player signed for similar reasons (Ellsbury's contract WILL be buoyed by 2011 even if he'll never come close to duplicating it) for a similar deal when adjusted for MLB inflation. It was a poor signing for the Cubs -- Soriano was not a player to build around. Same will be true with Ellsbury.

Pittz
10-03-2013, 09:53 AM
And the Cubs may sign Ellsbury as well. Theo should know better, but it absolutely wouldn't surprise me.

RedSoxtober
10-03-2013, 02:28 PM
And the Cubs may sign Ellsbury as well. Theo should know better, but it absolutely wouldn't surprise me.

Funny, I was thinking the exact same thing when I last posted.

Lackeyfan41
10-03-2013, 07:18 PM
We should let Ellsbury walk if he requires over 100-110 mil (which he will)

But it seems to me that Ben may bring him back...

Station 13
10-04-2013, 12:13 AM
We should let Ellsbury walk if he requires over 100-110 mil (which he will)

But it seems to me that Ben may bring him back...

Ellsbury is going to top that easily, and get into Crawford number. Some team is in need of a splash (Mariners try to sign Hamilton last year) so there may be team lurking and scoop him up. Shouldn't shock anyone if the MFY spends the $25M A-rod won't be getting next year to sign Ellsbury.

bagwell368
10-04-2013, 11:33 AM
Assuming he plays well and doesn't get hurt until the season is over, it starts at 6 for 120M or maybe 5 for 115M. I don't think he gets to 143, but if he does I pray it's the Skanks.

RedSoxtober
10-04-2013, 01:46 PM
Ellsbury is going to top that easily, and get into Crawford number. Some team is in need of a splash (Mariners try to sign Hamilton last year) so there may be team lurking and scoop him up. Shouldn't shock anyone if the MFY spends the $25M A-rod won't be getting next year to sign Ellsbury.

A-Rod will still be paid next year because he has a guaranteed contract (unless NYY finds some way to void it). The loophole is that his money will not count against the luxury tax. Even removing his salary NYY are still more than $20M above the luxury tax threshhold so it won't bother them much either way.

Station 13
10-04-2013, 02:02 PM
A-Rod will still be paid next year because he has a guaranteed contract (unless NYY finds some way to void it). The loophole is that his money will not count against the luxury tax. Even removing his salary NYY are still more than $20M above the luxury tax threshhold so it won't bother them much either way.

If A-rod is suspended, he isn't getting anything. It just skipped his 2014 salaries and his remaining contract kicks in once he is eligible to return. I don't believe any truth behind their plans to get luxury tax reset. Nope.

RedSoxtober
10-04-2013, 09:21 PM
You're right that he doesn't get paid (read to the contrary elsewhere) but his salary doesn't effect luxury tax money.


The team would get an immediate financial benefit from his ban as it attempts to pare payroll to less than $189 million next year from what USA Today lists as a major-league high of $228.8 million this season. Hal Steinbrenner, the Yankees' managing general partner, has set that goal to save the franchise from MLB's luxury tax payments. Wages affected by the suspension won't count against the luxury tax, said Pat Courtney, a spokesman for MLB.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20130805/PROFESSIONAL_SERVICES/130809946


While there's some personal satisfaction being felt by team executives, it's the prospect of Rodriguez missing all of the 2014 season that is at the root of the team's glee.

For not only does the team not have to pay A-Rod during the length of his suspension, but his salary doesn't count against the team's luxury tax number.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1727705-were-the-yankees-rooting-for-alex-rodriguez-to-be-suspended-from-baseball

ruckus16969
10-04-2013, 10:31 PM
It's not Mcann for Lavarnway, it's Salty that gets replaced. I think he'll cost too much and is already showing signs of decline/injury. I think we have to sign Salty or at the very least QO him.

Mcann isnt showing signs of decline. He was injured for a lil while but has been in beast mode sense coming back

bagwell368
10-05-2013, 11:24 PM
Mcann isnt showing signs of decline. He was injured for a lil while but has been in beast mode sense coming back

First. Check out his games played and age. He's played 1046 games at catcher. Even among the HOF/elite catchers, almost all of them become much less offensively productive between games 1300 and 1400. Don't believe me, look it up. He'll be 30 in February. He's got basically two prime years left - give or take.

BTW, in 2012 he had his poorest offensive season per OPS+ in his career, and 2013 was the 4th worst out of 9 seasons in his career. Are you sure he isn't already in decline of some sort?

Lackeyfan41
10-06-2013, 10:39 PM
I don't get the reasoning behind McCann.

Salty put up almost as good of numbers offensively (and is likely to be close to McCann in value in the upcoming years), I think at this point Salty is most likely going to get a QO. Either he can take that or we lock him up for 3-4 year at small money because there is no market for him or he walks and we get a draft pick.

Either way - Salty is a better option than McCann.

If Salty walks I am not sure what we do, I wouldn't mind seeing Lavarnway here splitting time with AJ P or Chris Ruiz. I am not sure what happens to Ross, maybe he will take a coaching job?

Its all speculation at this point and too early to talk about anyway. I don't even know why I wrote all that. Whatever, we will see.

RedSoxtober
10-07-2013, 10:18 AM
There's no market for Salty? He was recently tapped as one of the guys who had most increased his FA value during the 2013 season. Just in the AL East, the Sox, Yankees (with Cervelli injured their best C was Chris Stewart at .211/.293/.272), and Rays (Molina on a 1yr deal at 38 produced a .233/.290/.304) would all be interested. Catchers tend to be on short deals so he could be contacted by just about any team in MLB.

I've never really been a fan of Salty but I can admit that this year was pretty good and at least has made me amenable to a deal with him. The big fear is that this year is just a classic walk year and that he regresses to normal levels (including a typical second half decline) in future years. If there's a silver lining to his past it's that he was bad enough at the plate and behind the plate that he has relatively few games caught entering his walk year; he might actually hold up for the length of his next deal, assuming that it runs less than 5 years.

bagwell368
10-07-2013, 11:08 AM
I don't get the reasoning behind McCann.

Salty put up almost as good of numbers offensively (and is likely to be close to McCann in value in the upcoming years), I think at this point Salty is most likely going to get a QO. Either he can take that or we lock him up for 3-4 year at small money because there is no market for him or he walks and we get a draft pick.

Either way - Salty is a better option than McCann.

If Salty walks I am not sure what we do, I wouldn't mind seeing Lavarnway here splitting time with AJ P or Chris Ruiz. I am not sure what happens to Ross, maybe he will take a coaching job?

Its all speculation at this point and too early to talk about anyway. I don't even know why I wrote all that. Whatever, we will see.

McCann's 4 best years with the bat are all better then Salty's best year. Salty is only a year younger, and has never been near McCann with the bat career wise. I wouldn't extract from that Salty is close in value to McCann.

Salty is a better option because he'll be a good deal cheaper then McCann, and on paper might be closer to his peak in 3 years than McCann.

I already suggested that Ross move to coaching and maybe get activated if something goes bad next year.

[/QUOTE]

bagwell368
10-09-2013, 03:40 PM
It's been some time since I posted on the topic of Felger = Moron. Well just now he was comparing Pence to Ellsbury:

#1. games played since 2008 - valid point - nice advantage for Pence
#2. HR/RBI - how stupid can we get? Ellsbury is primarily a lead-off hitter that doesn't have near the opportunities to drive in runs as Pence.
#3. OPS - which favors SLG over OBP, another mistake

I shut it off, so I might have missed some, but:

Fielding: Pence was a very good RF in 2008-2009, he's now well below average and getting worse. Ellsbury is a fine borderline elite CF and not age declining (much).

SB: Pence steals bases 89/42 because he's in the NL, but he's hardly elite. Ellsbury at 241/46 is the elite base stealer in baseball since 2008.

OBP/lead-off: Ellsbury has a better OBP and he's a fine lead-off hitter - one of the best. Pence is another middle of the order hitter, of which there are more and there are better.

clutch: Pence sucks in the post season. In 86 PA: .210/.244/.272. Ells is: 310/.358/.437 in 96 PA's.

Just shows, stats in the wrong hands can be opaque and/or misleading.

rWAR for JE in 3204 PA's: 21.0
rWAR for HP in 4474 PA's: 23.4

JE will get paid more than Pence even with his injury history.

RedSoxtober
10-10-2013, 10:51 AM
Jacoby Ellsbury had at least one hit, one run and one stolen base in each of the four games.Boston.com

This is the kind of thing that's been gnawing at me. He's been a big part of what the Sox have done this year. No doubt the mix of success will change from year to year so it may not be entirely appropriate to ask this but... how do you replace what he's done for the Sox this year?

bagwell368
10-10-2013, 01:28 PM
Boston.com

This is the kind of thing that's been gnawing at me. He's been a big part of what the Sox have done this year. No doubt the mix of success will change from year to year so it may not be entirely appropriate to ask this but... how do you replace what he's done for the Sox this year?

Directly? You can't You can go with JBJ and/or SV as a stop gap, and in a year or two commit to JBJ, or get a new CF, but meanwhile spend the dough at holes: C, 1B, RF (if Victorino plays CF), SP, RP.

The year after the Ells deal is over it'll be easy to say we were right to not sign him, but, there will be times in the first 2-3 years that it won't be seen in a positive light.

RedSoxtober
10-10-2013, 01:59 PM
The replacement doesn't have to be direct. That's what I was hinting at when I mentioned "the mix of success." As has been said more than once, this year's team seems to have a different hero every night so even guys like Carp and Gomes who did not play every day were valuable to the team. With that in mind, replacing Ellsbury doesn't necessarily mean that we need a guy who steals 50+ bases and scores 90+ runs. JBJr could steal 20 and score 75 while Pedroia becomes a little more aggressive.

bagwell368
10-10-2013, 02:32 PM
The replacement doesn't have to be direct. That's what I was hinting at when I mentioned "the mix of success." As has been said more than once, this year's team seems to have a different hero every night so even guys like Carp and Gomes who did not play every day were valuable to the team. With that in mind, replacing Ellsbury doesn't necessarily mean that we need a guy who steals 50+ bases and scores 90+ runs. JBJr could steal 20 and score 75 while Pedroia becomes a little more aggressive.

I know, that's why most of my post was about what else you could do with the dough.

Bo Sox Fan
10-10-2013, 04:54 PM
Boston.com

This is the kind of thing that's been gnawing at me. He's been a big part of what the Sox have done this year. No doubt the mix of success will change from year to year so it may not be entirely appropriate to ask this but... how do you replace what he's done for the Sox this year?

Plan A - Hope Jackie Bradley Jr. is the real deal

Plan B - Trade for Coco Crisp

-Lavigne43-
10-10-2013, 04:58 PM
I think you bat Nava lead-off and hope something similar to his OBP this year can be repeated. It just makes no sense to retain Ells. Choo is a better deal if you want to spend that much money. Best hope is that JBjr can be that OBP guy from the minors with good defense.

bagwell368
10-10-2013, 09:07 PM
I think you bat Nava lead-off and hope something similar to his OBP this year can be repeated. It just makes no sense to retain Ells. Choo is a better deal if you want to spend that much money. Best hope is that JBjr can be that OBP guy from the minors with good defense.

Choo is essentially a platoon hitter - or should be - he's pathetic vs LHP (.215/.347/.265) in a good hitters park in the NL Central, very poor career numbers too). If we get him we bat him 5th vs RHP and 9th vs LHP? His fielding has gone to hell the past two years as well, and he'll be 32 in July. No thanks to him. I'd pay Ells 120/6 before I'd pay Choo 72/4.

Nava is another AAAA+ hitter prone to long slumps who is essentially a platoon guy. No in the leadoff slot. I'd rather gamble with Pedroia vs. Victorino with JBJ in the 9 slot.

-Lavigne43-
10-10-2013, 11:15 PM
Good thing most pitchers are right handed, and he has an insane .457 OBP vs them, you absolutely have that leading off. He's probably going to get less years and money since he is a corner of'er. I don't want him, but he's going to be worth more of his contract than Ellsbury.

Nava had one bad month, something almost every player has. He had a .410 OBP in the 2nd half. In his first full year he hit a wall in the 2nd half. This year he had a complete season with his 2nd half a lot better than his 1st half. The guy is a late bloomer, hes earned the opportunity.

bagwell368
10-11-2013, 06:45 AM
Good thing most pitchers are right handed, and he has an insane .457 OBP vs them, you absolutely have that leading off. He's probably going to get less years and money since he is a corner of'er. I don't want him, but he's going to be worth more of his contract than Ellsbury.

Since his career peak SLG in 2008 of .549, he's at .459 and falling - that's not great for a corner OF. His fielding at CF and RF has collapsed. For the Sox he'd have to play LF. Now if you don't sign Napoli and go with a platoon at 1B out of: Nava/Carp, and sign Choo for 3/54, and lead him off vs RHP, then he might work. Might. He'd be getting a lot of lefties out of the pen to blunt rallies later in games. One plus is he's taken to getting HBP's to raise his OBP last year.


Nava had one bad month, something almost every player has. He had a .410 OBP in the 2nd half. In his first full year he hit a wall in the 2nd half. This year he had a complete season with his 2nd half a lot better than his 1st half. The guy is a late bloomer, hes earned the opportunity.

One bad month? That's generous: In May-July his SLG by month was: .425, .410, .333

He's certainly worth way more than his salary to date, and he has the right mindset to leadoff although he didn't do well at it in a couple of games last year, his OBP is good leading off innings and great if taking the 1st pitch. Still he's another platoon guy.

If you have both Choo and Nava, than you have one leadoff hitter vs any SP, the other guy in the bottom third or on the bench.

-Lavigne43-
10-11-2013, 12:26 PM
And those negatives are why I don't want Choo, otherwise he would be the most attractive free agent on the market. He's still going to earn more of his contract than Ells with his insane numbers vs RHP. Ellsbury hasn't hit lefties at all the last two years.

Nava had a .394 OBP in May, .820 OPS. June was meh with a .348 OBP, .758 OPS, but not bad.

Ellsbury had a .336 OBP/.416 SLG in April. .338/.331 in May. .338/.419 in August.

Victorino had a .358/.319 in April. .322/.418 in May. .311/.424 in July

Pedroia had a .289/.333 in July.

Napoli had a .352/.316 June. a .329/.389 August

His slump wasn't anything egregious for a good hitter.

bagwell368
10-11-2013, 12:55 PM
His slump wasn't anything egregious for a good hitter.

While his OBP stayed up pretty well, that's a hell of a 3 month power outage for a "good" hitter. Now if he's batting leadoff, SLG isn't very crucial, and it's not an issue (except in terms of being a corner OF), but for a guy that batted 5th a good amount this year, and might hit 6th next year, that's a big power outage. Still like I said he's worth the money, but, since he can't play CF and JBJ could easily be a .245/.315/.300 hitter next year - DH and the INF better supply a lot of power.

BGeer091
10-17-2013, 12:22 AM
So is the consensus that Ellsbury is gone no matter what??

No way we resign him and move him to left?? Ells JBJ Victorino OF isn't bad at all.

We would def need to get more power though.

AI
10-17-2013, 12:30 AM
It's hard to see him go because he's such a good player. I wouldn't offer him a Crawford contract but if all it takes is what Pence got then I'd probably keep him. I love him at leadoff so much.

bagwell368
10-17-2013, 09:54 AM
So is the consensus that Ellsbury is gone no matter what??

No way we resign him and move him to left?? Ells JBJ Victorino OF isn't bad at all.

We would def need to get more power though.

With an aging injury prone RF, an injury prone LF (BTW, if he stays, he's playing CF at least for a few years), and a slump prone JBJ - your 4th and 5th OF'ers better be able to hit coming off the bench for a PA or 5 weeks - and yes, with an aging DH, a on/off 3B, and a kid SS (unless Drew gets QO'd) that may not exceed Drew as a hitter in '14, a oft banged up 2B, and a C coming off a career year - I'm afraid the Sox as a team are going to be a good 30 HR's & 90 runs short of '13 next year with that set-up.

RedSoxtober
10-17-2013, 11:56 AM
It's hard to see him go because he's such a good player. I wouldn't offer him a Crawford contract but if all it takes is what Pence got then I'd probably keep him. I love him at leadoff so much.

It's a nice sentiment but I don't think that there's any way Boras goes as low as Pence. He will capitalize on Ellsbury's playoff performance (DET shutdown the top offense in MLB and my guy is the only one who hit consistently!), emphasize his 2011/13 values (those championship caliber teams were driven by his offense!), and justify his injury time (they were freak collisions that won't happen with your players!).

Station 13
10-17-2013, 12:08 PM
So is the consensus that Ellsbury is gone no matter what??

No way we resign him and move him to left?? Ells JBJ Victorino OF isn't bad at all.

We would def need to get more power though.

This team have the resources to re-sign him. No he isn't gone no matter what.

He is proving more and more they need him.

bagwell368
10-17-2013, 09:58 PM
^

So you would pay him $143M for 7 years? 6 for $108M seems like the absolute tops for him assuming a team wants to actually have him earn it, and that's probably less than 50/50.

He gets the QA, and we get the pick, and we replace him like we replaced Damon before him.

ruckus16969
10-21-2013, 10:51 AM
I don't want him going anywhere. The kid is great.

Nomar
10-21-2013, 02:44 PM
Yeah hes still gotta go.

BostonSports96
10-21-2013, 06:27 PM
Let's assume Ells walks for a huge contract that we know at least one team will offer him. Let's also assume Drew is gone, Nap is re-signed and Salty/McCann is signed.

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Napoli
5. Bogaerts
6. Nava/Gomes OR McCann
7. Salty OR Nava/Gomes
8. Middlebrooks
9. JBJ

Doesn't seem too bad, but a lot will hinge on Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and JBJ's performances. The idea of Napoli hitting 4th (and due for a down year next season) scares me though. Too many Ks that will leave a ton of runners on base throughout the season. Team will struggle to create runs on the base paths without Ells though.

Assuming this is the lineup next season, the best case scenario would be for Bogaerts to light it up in the first 1-2 months and get moved to the 3 spot.

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. Bogaerts
4. Ortiz
5. Napoli

Lackeyfan41
10-21-2013, 07:56 PM
Let's assume Ells walks for a huge contract that we know at least one team will offer him. Let's also assume Drew is gone, Nap is re-signed and Salty/McCann is signed.

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Napoli
5. Bogaerts
6. Nava/Gomes OR McCann
7. Salty OR Nava/Gomes
8. Middlebrooks
9. JBJ

Doesn't seem too bad, but a lot will hinge on Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and JBJ's performances. The idea of Napoli hitting 4th (and due for a down year next season) scares me though. Too many Ks that will leave a ton of runners on base throughout the season. Team will struggle to create runs on the base paths without Ells though.

Assuming this is the lineup next season, the best case scenario would be for Bogaerts to light it up in the first 1-2 months and get moved to the 3 spot.

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. Bogaerts
4. Ortiz
5. Napoli
I don't like resigning Salty. I think you give a QO to him and if he takes it we have him for another year otherwise he walks and we pick up someone like Ruiz. Same with Napoli, but there doesn't seem to be too many good 1B options, we would have to be involved in a trade to let him walk.

Middlebrooks has shown he can do it, I hope we give him another year to try to get it together and don't sell low.

Ellsbury has been great for us in the post season, it would/will be tough to see him go.

goshhhjosh
10-22-2013, 08:29 AM
I don't like resigning Salty. I think you give a QO to him and if he takes it we have him for another year otherwise he walks and we pick up someone like Ruiz. Same with Napoli, but there doesn't seem to be too many good 1B options, we would have to be involved in a trade to let him walk.

Middlebrooks has shown he can do it, I hope we give him another year to try to get it together and don't sell low.

Ellsbury has been great for us in the post season, it would/will be tough to see him go.

I don't know if Middlebrooks has shown that he can do it, he's such an up-and-down player. When he first came up in 2012 up until he got injured, he played pretty well. This year he had the three HR game, sucked, went to AAA, came back up and excelled for a couple of weeks, then sucked some more. He'll need to be more consistent, and not consistently bad.

I don't see Ellsbury coming back. Boras is his agent and I believe the Rangers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, or Tigers will sign him.

Ellsbury would make sense for the Tigers (depending on how much they want to spend as 2014 is Scherzer's last year and they may re-sign him.) He would provide some speed to a :oldguy: (slow) lineup. I just hope he doesn't go to the Yankees. I think the Yankees will go after Beltran, but you never know.

bagwell368
10-22-2013, 10:48 AM
Let's assume Ells walks for a huge contract that we know at least one team will offer him. Let's also assume Drew is gone, Nap is re-signed and Salty/McCann is signed.

1. Victorino
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Napoli
5. Bogaerts
6. Nava/Gomes OR McCann
7. Salty OR Nava/Gomes
8. Middlebrooks
9. JBJ

Doesn't seem too bad, but a lot will hinge on Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and JBJ's performances. The idea of Napoli hitting 4th (and due for a down year next season) scares me though.

Could you explain why he is due for a down season? He hit very closely to his career norms, and doesn't have to deal with catching any more.


Too many Ks that will leave a ton of runners on base throughout the season. Team will struggle to create runs on the base paths without Ells though.

Why can't they find a leadoff guy out what they have? BTW, Napoli hit for more RBI's per PA than Ortiz did on the season out of the clean-up slot - did you consider that?

bagwell368
10-22-2013, 10:51 AM
I don't like resigning Salty. I think you give a QO to him and if he takes it we have him for another year otherwise he walks and we pick up someone like Ruiz. Same with Napoli, but there doesn't seem to be too many good 1B options, we would have to be involved in a trade to let him walk.

Middlebrooks has shown he can do it, I hope we give him another year to try to get it together and don't sell low.

Ellsbury has been great for us in the post season, it would/will be tough to see him go.

WMB will get his chance until a killer trade comes up or Cecchini is ready to go.

Agree that Salty is your basic AAAA.5 hitter (IE can't hit top notch pitchers - turning him into the usual no bat average catcher). His D improved a bit but is still below average, and he's not a good game caller or framer. Extend the QO, and go from there.

bagwell368
10-22-2013, 10:54 AM
I don't know if Middlebrooks has shown that he can do it, he's such an up-and-down player. When he first came up in 2012 up until he got injured, he played pretty well. This year he had the three HR game, sucked, went to AAA, came back up and excelled for a couple of weeks, then sucked some more. He'll need to be more consistent, and not consistently bad.

I don't see Ellsbury coming back. Boras is his agent and I believe the Rangers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, or Tigers will sign him.

Ellsbury would make sense for the Tigers (depending on how much they want to spend as 2014 is Scherzer's last year and they may re-sign him.) He would provide some speed to a :oldguy: (slow) lineup. I just hope he doesn't go to the Yankees. I think the Yankees will go after Beltran, but you never know.

If the Yanks don't sign Cano, then they'll be spoiling to spend money and show the fans that they are not having a bridge year - you can expect Ells to be gone to them in that case.

Beltran? I don't know if an old guy is what they need at this point - if so, just for a year.

goshhhjosh
10-22-2013, 01:35 PM
If the Yanks don't sign Cano, then they'll be spoiling to spend money and show the fans that they are not having a bridge year - you can expect Ells to be gone to them in that case.

Beltran? I don't know if an old guy is what they need at this point - if so, just for a year.

Oh, I could definitely see the Yankees going after Ellsbury. They have an opening in center field with Granderson being a free agent and some decent sized contracts are coming off of the books.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9845063/sources-say-new-york-yankees-go-offseason-shopping-spree

As far as the Beltran idea, I got that idea from the above article. They don't need more elderly players, but as you've mentioned, a short term deal I could see it making sense.

I don't know how to feel, I want to see A-Rod suspended, but at the same time I want to see A-Rod's salary count against the Yankees cap.

bagwell368
10-22-2013, 01:42 PM
Oh, I could definitely see the Yankees going after Ellsbury. They have an opening in center field with Granderson being a free agent and some decent sized contracts are coming off of the books.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9845063/sources-say-new-york-yankees-go-offseason-shopping-spree

As far as the Beltran idea, I got that idea from the above article. They don't need more elderly players, but as you've mentioned, a short term deal I could see it making sense.

I don't know how to feel, I want to see A-Rod suspended, but at the same time I want to see A-Rod's salary count against the Yankees cap.

If they don't have to pay AROD then Ells is a shoe-in. If the Yanks spend 275M+ on Cano and they owe AROD it's hard to see how.

-Lavigne43-
10-22-2013, 01:51 PM
Yankees have 4 OF'ers making good money next year. Gardner, Ichiro, Soriano, Wells. Signing Ells would be a dumb move when they can just play Gardner in CF.

BostonSports96
10-22-2013, 07:44 PM
Could you explain why he is due for a down season? He hit very closely to his career norms, and doesn't have to deal with catching any more.

Have you checked Napoli's last 5 seasons, which are the only seasons he's played over 100 games each?

.272 .350 .492 .842
.238 .316 .468 .784
.320 .414 .631 1.046
.227 .343 .469 .812
.259 .360 .482 .842

He's an "every other season" type player. He's due for a bad season next year.


Why can't they find a leadoff guy out what they have? BTW, Napoli hit for more RBI's per PA than Ortiz did on the season out of the clean-up slot - did you consider that?

What leadoff options on the FA market would you suggest? Choo? Not saying he's a bad option, but why would they do that if they think JBJ is ready?

Also, are you seriously going to draw the conclusion that Napoli was better out of the 4 hole than Ortiz would have been last year? He only had 136 ABs from the 4 hole, compared to Ortiz's 462. You can't compare numbers when the difference in ABs is so large. Napoli got off to a scorching hot streak at the beginning of the season, without Ortiz in the lineup. Do you think he would have kept that up all season long? The answer is no. You don't want your clean-up hitter setting franchise records for strikeouts by a player in a single season.

BostonSports96
10-22-2013, 07:48 PM
Yankees have 4 OF'ers making good money next year. Gardner, Ichiro, Soriano, Wells. Signing Ells would be a dumb move when they can just play Gardner in CF.

This is my thinking exactly. Why would they sign Ellsbury?

IMO, they can't afford to let Cano slip away. That's where there money is going. Cano and Masahiro Tanaka (including posting fee).

bagwell368
10-22-2013, 09:10 PM
Have you checked Napoli's last 5 seasons, which are the only seasons he's played over 100 games each?

.272 .350 .492 .842
.238 .316 .468 .784
.320 .414 .631 1.046
.227 .343 .469 .812
.259 .360 .482 .842

He's an "every other season" type player. He's due for a bad season next year.

That's dubious at best. .812 is pretty close to .842 and .842 (in fact it's 96.43% as good). .784 only looks bad next to 1.046 - but as his likely career year, everything looks bad next to that.


What leadoff options on the FA market would you suggest? Choo? Not saying he's a bad option, but why would they do that if they think JBJ is ready?

Choo is a lead off guy vs RHS only. JBJ ready for what? .252/.322/.302? If so, yes, he's ready. JBJ to me looks like a shoe in for the 9 slot, unless Ells stays or JBJ is dealt.


Also, are you seriously going to draw the conclusion that Napoli was better out of the 4 hole than Ortiz would have been last year? He only had 136 ABs from the 4 hole, compared to Ortiz's 462. You can't compare numbers when the difference in ABs is so large. Napoli got off to a scorching hot streak at the beginning of the season, without Ortiz in the lineup. Do you think he would have kept that up all season long? The answer is no. You don't want your clean-up hitter setting franchise records for strikeouts by a player in a single season.

Excuse me. Napoli's sample size - including the critical time of the season when Ortiz was out is quite sizable, and he did very well. Like I said he had more RBI's per PA than Ortiz and he also had a +.018 higher SLG than Ortiz at clean-up is more than enough to make mincemeat of the fears that he can't hit clean-up - which is all I was going for.

Also in 130 PA's leading off innings in 2013, Napoli was: .307/.392/.561 - since the 4th hitter leads off innings more than all other batting slots other than lead-off that's another reason to bat him there.

As I have repeated about 20 times, K's are .002% worse per BA in terms of scoring runs than batted ball outs - look it up.

If you insist on worrying, worry about Ortiz. He's certainly well exceeded my expectations this year and last, he won't keep that up. If 2014 is the year he goes back to 2009 or worse performance, we have much bigger issues than Napoli's sample size at clean-up.

BostonSports96
10-22-2013, 09:22 PM
That's dubious at best. .812 is pretty close to .842 and .842. .784 only looks bad next to 1.046 - but as his likely career year, everything looks bad next to that.

Yeah but you're only referring to OPS, look at the fluctuations throughout the rest of his slash line over the past five seasons. It's pretty obvious he's inconsistent at best from year to year. Only consistent things are his power and K's.


Choo is a lead off guy vs RHS only. JBJ ready for what? .252/.322/.302? If so, yes, he's ready. JBJ to me looks like a shoe in for the 9 slot, unless Ells stays or JBJ is dealt.

If you looked at my lineup prediction for next season, you'd see I have JBJ in the 9 hole. I was talking about JBJ being ready to play CF as the starter. I doubt Ells stays.


Excuse me. Napoli's sample size - including the critical time of the season when Ortiz was out is quite sizable, and he did very well. Like I said he had more RBI's per PA than Ortiz and he also had a +.018 higher SLG than Ortiz at clean-up is more than enough to make mincemeat of the fears that he can't hit clean-up - which is all I was going for. A bigger problem IMO is Ortiz. He's certainly well exceeded my expectations this year and last, he won't keep that up. If 2014 is the year he goes back to 2009 or worse performance, we have much bigger issues than Napoli's sample size at clean-up. As I have repeated about 20 times, K's are .002% worse per BA in terms of scoring runs than batted ball outs - look it up.

As I said, Napoli's sample size was 1/4 of that of Ortiz, no way he sustained the success he did when Ortiz was out. And that RBI per 4.5 ABs compared to Ortiz's RBI per 5.1 ABs and Napoli's +.018 SLG over Ortiz wouldn't be sustained either hitting 4th over a full season. I'd certainly feel more comfortable with Ortiz hitting 4th ahead of Nap. There is statistical trend evidence suggesting Napoli is way more likely to have a down season next year than Ortiz is.

bagwell368
10-23-2013, 06:26 AM
Yeah but you're only referring to OPS, look at the fluctuations throughout the rest of his slash line over the past five seasons. It's pretty obvious he's inconsistent at best from year to year. Only consistent things are his power and K's.

You used OPS to demonstrate your point, now it's not good enough? Every hitter fluctuates from year to year, doesn't prove that he's due for a down year. I'd be more concerned (and I am) that he's about to enter his decline phase due to age and having played 539 games at catcher in his career.

Napoli has played in different parks/line-ups/faced different opponents, lets take that out of it as much as we can, from 2009-2013 inclusive his adjusted OPS's (per BR) (W/ ops+) are:

.839 (120)
.824 (115)
1.032 (175)
.795 (113)
.849 (129)

Give consideration for his quad injury in 2012 which caused him to miss games and not hit as well, and you'll find 4 years that are very similar with a career year mixed in - so? So much for the theory of alternating years being down in any significant way. Go back to 2008 and his OPS was .953 (148), oops, another hole in the theory - since it should be a down year.


As I said, Napoli's sample size was 1/4 of that of Ortiz

Actually 28.4%.


no way he sustained the success he did when Ortiz was out. And that RBI per 4.5 ABs compared to Ortiz's RBI per 5.1 ABs and Napoli's +.018 SLG over Ortiz wouldn't be sustained either hitting 4th over a full season.

Now if Napoli had sucked in the clean-up spot as some actually asserted in 2013, you'd have a point, but, since he did quite well the only factual statement that works is that given his PA's in the 4 slot (a sizable sample at 152 PA's), he did very well.


I'd certainly feel more comfortable with Ortiz hitting 4th ahead of Nap. There is statistical trend evidence suggesting Napoli is way more likely to have a down season next year than Ortiz is.

I agree on the first sentence - assuming Ortiz doesn't fall on his face in 2014, but, I proved above that the 2nd sentence is baseless.

RedSoxtober
10-23-2013, 10:24 AM
Yankees have 4 OF'ers making good money next year. Gardner, Ichiro, Soriano, Wells. Signing Ells would be a dumb move when they can just play Gardner in CF.
They're also receiving almost $40M towards the salaries of Soriano and Wells to offset their costs (including CBT). The pair costs them $5M and $3M respectively. From the perspectives of both cash flow and luxury tax, these players are cheap.

The only question that NYY need to answer is "what is best for the long term?" In Cano, Granderson, Kuroda, Pettite, Youk, Mo, and Hughes they've got $86M coming off the books. They're likely to save another $9M on Jeter (presumably they decline him and he returns on his $8M player option). Re-signing Cano, even to an A-Rod deal, takes roughly a third of that money saved. Yes, it's a ridiculously large chunk but it's still doable without overburdening them.


Have you checked Napoli's last 5 seasons, which are the only seasons he's played over 100 games each?

[snip]

He's an "every other season" type player. He's due for a bad season next year.
Did you overlook the fact that, of his past five seasons, 2013 is the first in which he's not played at least half of his games behind the plate? That takes a huge physical toll on a player as they approach 30 and could very well help explain what you're seeing. At the very least it should make you a bit slower to lay out expectations from his past career when such a very obvious change has taken place.


What leadoff options on the FA market would you suggest? Choo? Not saying he's a bad option, but why would they do that if they think JBJ is ready?
When Bags suggested that they "find a leadoff guy out what they have" then I assumed this was one of the things he had in mind. JBJr, Nava (platoon), or even Xander (given his patience) could be reasonable in-house options.

BostonSports96
10-23-2013, 04:16 PM
Did you overlook the fact that, of his past five seasons, 2013 is the first in which he's not played at least half of his games behind the plate? That takes a huge physical toll on a player as they approach 30 and could very well help explain what you're seeing. At the very least it should make you a bit slower to lay out expectations from his past career when such a very obvious change has taken place.

Wait, so you're saying the physical toll on him was hindering him in seasons where he played more than half of his games behind the plate?

Well then how do you explain 2009 and 2011, his best statistical seasons pre-2013 (in terms of slash line and power for 2011), both in which he played the majority of his games behind the plate?

He might not be catching anymore, but since he is now over 30 with hip problems and plantar fasciitis, shouldn't he be trending downwards anyways, hence a down season upcoming and continuing for the next couple years?

BostonSports96
10-23-2013, 04:27 PM
Go back to 2008 and his OPS was .953 (148), oops, another hole in the theory - since it should be a down year.

Yeah a .953 OPS in 274 PAs, compared to 400+ PAs every year after. So that is irrelevant.


Actually 28.4%.

Amazing, you've actually reached a new level of condescension....didn't think it was possible for you.


Now if Napoli had sucked in the clean-up spot as some actually asserted in 2013, you'd have a point, but, since he did quite well the only factual statement that works is that given his PA's in the 4 slot (a sizable sample at 152 PA's), he did very well.

Once again, he would not have sustained that success in the 4 hole for 500+ PAs over an entire season.

bagwell368
10-23-2013, 06:26 PM
Yeah a .953 OPS in 274 PAs, compared to 400+ PAs every year after. So that is irrelevant.

Only to those with an agenda.


Amazing, you've actually reached a new level of condescension....didn't think it was possible for you.

You haven't read many of my posts. That's how I address posters I like. Check out posts to North Country or Lucchie for how I write to posters I do not care for.


Once again, he would not have sustained that success in the 4 hole for 500+ PAs over an entire season.

Once again, Ortiz's slide into decrepitude is likely to exceed Napoli's - the question is it will be in 2014. Ortiz's stout - nay superior stats in the 4th slot over other slots he hit in in 2013 AND his very fine slash stats (previously given) leading off innings suggest the polar opposite of what you claim is a fact.

Napoli BTW has most often batted 5th-8th in his career, but his success at #4 this year is clear.

RedSoxtober
10-24-2013, 12:38 PM
Wait, so you're saying the physical toll on him was hindering him in seasons where he played more than half of his games behind the plate?
Not exactly. You've tried to connect high games played to a likely downturn in results for next season based on past performance with high games played. What I'm saying is that extrapolating his up-and-down pattern from 2009-2012 should be done cautiously because there has been a significant change in the way that he is used. There is less physical demand on his body as a result of playing 1B full time.


Well then how do you explain 2009 and 2011, his best statistical seasons pre-2013 (in terms of slash line and power for 2011), both in which he played the majority of his games behind the plate?
2009 was the first year he pushed past 100 games. He caught almost 100 (96) and DH'ed in 18 more. His production in the less physically demanding DH slot (.359/.431/.594) greatly surpassed what he did on days he started behind the plate (.259/.338/.479). If take a look at the bigger picture, however, you'll see that 2009 WAS A STEP BACKWARD. It represents a similar BA but a regression in OBP (.374=>.350) and SLG (.586=>.492). I'm perfectly comfortable suggesting that the decrease in power correlates to playing more games behind the plate and that an OBP dip could then follow (not being pitched around).

Ramping the physical demands caught up to him in 2010. It's accumulated wear and tear from increased time behind the plate AND the fact that it remains his peak in both games played and defensive innings. It should not be a big surprise that he regressed across the board for the second year in a row -- two big jumps in playing time led to two big drops in OBP and SLG. Yes, accumulated demands affected him.

What happened in 2011? Two significant changes. First, he moved to TEX. In the summer months the ball carries like crazy in Rangers Ballpark. Check the park factors (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2011); Rangers Ballpark was a HUGE offensive advantage in 2011. +40% in runs, +50% in HR, +13% in hits, +19% in 2B. Napoli came to a place where offensive production was boosted and joined a stacked lineup that was beating the crap out of the ball.(Note that in the previous season Angel stadium was #27 on the park factor list, at -14% runs, -18% HR, -4% hits, and -53% 2B). That kind of context helps a lot. Second, he decreased his total games and defensive innings by about 25%. No surprise then that more time off led to bigger production, especially in an offensively explosive ballpark.

2012? It still fits the mold. In 2011 Napoli not only had a lighter workload but he ramped up in the Rangers lineup relatively slowly. In 2012, bouyed by his great 2011 postseason, Napoli was The Man from day 1. He appeared in 68 games by the end of June 2012 where he'd played only 64 through the trade deadline the year before. Check his game log and it shows that it was heavy on catching early and the longer that was the emphasis in the field the more he slumped. He also suffered a quad injury in August that severely hampered his performance in both Aug and Sep and the latter is historically his best month of the season (much like it was once again this season). There was no rebound in his slash as a result.

You may disagree if you like but I see strong correlation to the physical demands of catching and BOTH the peaks and valleys of his past career. Having taken the time to trace all that out I may well go further than what I suggested earlier but I'll stay with guarding caution against extrapolating too much from his past given the nature of the changes in his use.


He might not be catching anymore, but since he is now over 30 with hip problems and plantar fasciitis, shouldn't he be trending downwards anyways, hence a down season upcoming and continuing for the next couple years?
Over 30... so? Ortiz has hit .291/.389/.548 in his age-31+ seasons without any clear up-and-down patterns that are not better explained by injuries. Yeah, he's an extreme example but he's an easy one to debunk the "over 30" argument. There are tons of guys over 30 who have and still are producing. With "baseball prime" considered the age-28 through age-32 seasons I don't see any reason to expect an age related degradation of performance in 2014 (his age-32 season).

As for the hip, you're simply overplaying the hand. He does not have "hip problems" in the sense that you're suggesting. He has "a hip condition" that is not a gradual deterioration but much more like a switch: when the condition exacerbates the impact will be quick and obvious. That could happen in 2014. It could also delay until 2018. Or never occur during his MLB career. There's no way to predict when (if) the condition will impact his performance. So it could derail his 2014 season but we cannot expect that it will do so. The safest approach would be a similar deal to what he had this season with perhaps a higher base and more modest incentives.

And plantar faciitis? This is a temporary condition for which rest is the greatest remedy. A cortisone shot probably does the trick until Halloween and then he can sit all he wants. That should have no impact on 2014.

Station 13
10-26-2013, 04:03 PM
Latest quote for Ellsbury $150,000,000.00 (mlbtr)

ciaban
10-28-2013, 12:20 AM
If they don't have to pay AROD then Ells is a shoe-in. If the Yanks spend 275M+ on Cano and they owe AROD it's hard to see how.
The giants have a lot of money freed up and need an OF.

bagwell368
10-28-2013, 06:16 AM
Latest quote for Ellsbury $150,000,000.00 (mlbtr)

he's not worth that. 6 for 114 maybe, not 150...

Shaiza
10-28-2013, 08:56 AM
Bags - So do you believe the Sox will go after Choo this offseason if Ellsbury isn't re-signed? And how much could Choo fetch in the market considering he is a Boras agent as well?

If Choo were to bat leadoff vs RHP, would Victorino lead off against LHP?

RedSoxtober
10-28-2013, 09:02 AM
The giants have a lot of money freed up and need an OF.

Where? They've got $118M allocated to 11 players and that assumes they're buying out Zito's option. That puts them rounghly $500K shy of their 2011 total which they exceeded only in 2012 and 2013 (by $15M each season). Extending Lincecum, Posey, and Pence took a lot of what would have been expendable cash.

RedSoxtober
10-28-2013, 09:09 AM
Bags - So do you believe the Sox will go after Choo this offseason if Ellsbury isn't re-signed? And how much could Choo fetch in the market considering he is a Boras agent as well?

If Choo were to bat leadoff vs RHP, would Victorino lead off against LHP?

Personally I don't see it. I think they'd be much more likely to give the money to Ellsbury and, when that fails, focus on JBJr. I just cannot make sense of throwing money at either of them trying to replicate 2013 because this season's success has just as much to do with unexpected production from role players as from Ells' contributions. They're better served keeping the money.

Shaiza
10-28-2013, 01:19 PM
Personally I don't see it. I think they'd be much more likely to give the money to Ellsbury and, when that fails, focus on JBJr. I just cannot make sense of throwing money at either of them trying to replicate 2013 because this season's success has just as much to do with unexpected production from role players as from Ells' contributions. They're better served keeping the money.

I agree with you. I'm just a huge fan of Choo, really. Nava's a poor man's Choo and he'd be a lot cheaper than what Choo would get.

RedSoxtober
10-28-2013, 03:36 PM
By overall slash, Choo and Pence compare pretty favorably (.288/.389/.465 vs .285/.339/.476) with Choo having better on base skills and Pence slightly more power. Choo has been a bit more consistent, with the OBP spike this year heavily weighted by HBP. That suggests that Choo could get a contract at least similar to the $90M/5yr that Pence got. Obviously Boras will have his typical lines about how that was not obtained against an open market and explain why Choo (and Ellsbury) is worth more to FA bidders.

The more I compare the two the more Choo looks like he should get the bigger contract. He's been a 30+ 2B, 15-20HR, 20 SB performer pretty consistently the last few years. Ellsbury has broken double-digit HR only once and 30 2B twice. Yeah, he's been injured and that would effect counting stats BUT that's also why everyone should be cautious; even in this "healthy" year he only played 134G, with roughly half the missed games coming with his Sep DL trip. If he's all speed, which diminishes sharply in the early 30s, his value is very questionable after year 3.

Back off the rabbit trail... I don't think the Sox should invest $18M+ in an OF that will not be a heavy run producer. Choo and Ellsbury both fall into that category.

BoSox47
10-28-2013, 11:53 PM
I bet the sox throw 5 years 17.5 at ells

Lackeyfan41
10-29-2013, 02:43 AM
I bet the sox throw 5 years 17.5 at ells

That would be very good, but obviously that is not happening considering Pence got 18 mil.

It will probably be 6 or 7 years in the 130mil range...

bagwell368
10-29-2013, 11:59 AM
I bet the sox throw 5 years 17.5 at ells

That's simply not enough - $87.5M for 5. He could get 125-140 range. I believe an actual break even could be around $110-115M for 6.

Whatever it is, we can't afford it, make him the QO and get the pick and say - thanks!

Lackeyfan41
10-31-2013, 03:46 AM
That's simply not enough - $87.5M for 5. He could get 125-140 range. I believe an actual break even could be around $110-115M for 6.

Whatever it is, we can't afford it, make him the QO and get the pick and say - thanks!

We can fit him in the budget, it is just an issue of him not being worth the contract, spending the money smarter elsewhere, and having JBJ in the wings.

On another note: It should be interesting to see how many QO we hand out. Potentially 4 could be given out this winter. It would be great to have 3 1st round picks or so picks heading into next years stacked draft class

AI
10-31-2013, 03:59 AM
We can fit him in the budget, it is just an issue of him not being worth the contract, spending the money smarter elsewhere, and having JBJ in the wings.

On another note: It should be interesting to see how many QO we hand out. Potentially 4 could be given out this winter. It would be great to have 3 1st round picks or so picks heading into next years stacked draft class

Napoli and Ellsbury should be the only ones. Hell no to Salty and Drew.

Lackeyfan41
10-31-2013, 04:07 AM
Napoli and Ellsbury should be the only ones. Hell no to Salty and Drew.
Without any QO attached to them, Salty will most likely get 3 years 30-40mil. And Drew about the same. Will having a draft pick attached to them hurt their value enough that they are forced to take the QO?
Although, I 100% agree that I don't want either of them back.

I don't want Napoli back either, especially long term. I know I am in the minority there... But there are no good alternatives other than a trade for 1B.

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 10:57 AM
Napoli and Ellsbury should be the only ones. Hell no to Salty and Drew.

I don't think they believe in WMB, I don't. Drew makes a lot of sense for one year - or snagging a pick - either way.

Ellsbury gets one since he won't take it.

Salty is tres risky since he's liable to take it.

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 11:01 AM
Without any QO attached to them, Salty will most likely get 3 years 30-40mil. And Drew about the same. Will having a draft pick attached to them hurt their value enough that they are forced to take the QO?
Although, I 100% agree that I don't want either of them back.

I don't want Napoli back either, especially long term. I know I am in the minority there... But there are no good alternatives other than a trade for 1B.

I'd be freaked out if Salty got $40M for 3 years, he doesn't come near justifying that. 3 for $28.5M seems like the limit to me - and I don't want us to pay that.

Drew is too old/beat up to get 3 for 30 IMO anywhere.

Nap is fine for a 2 for $26M deal if he'll sign it. Deals are possible, but not likely, Morales isn't really much better. I don't want to fork over 3 for 39 for Napoli, that would be a mistake.

homie564
10-31-2013, 11:57 AM
I wouldn't mind doing 4/40 on nap.. Some may think it's too long but the guy was elite defensively, a great teammate, and a strong hither.

gcoll
10-31-2013, 11:59 AM
I love Ellsbury, but it's time to say farewell. You can't have a 36 year old Ellsbury patrolling center field. My guess is that he's the starting CF for the Yankees next season.

As for his replacement, keep it in house, and use Jackie Bradley Jr.

homie564
10-31-2013, 12:04 PM
I love Ellsbury, but it's time to say farewell. You can't have a 36 year old Ellsbury patrolling center field. My guess is that he's the starting CF for the Yankees next season.

As for his replacement, keep it in house, and use Jackie Bradley Jr.

By that time he can be in left or right.. What's wrong with that?

-Lavigne43-
10-31-2013, 12:05 PM
The only way they keep Ellsbury is if they are emotional from the high of the World Series and want to keep everyone they can. Like what the Giants did after winning.

RedSoxtober
10-31-2013, 12:13 PM
Napoli and Ellsbury should be the only ones. Hell no to Salty and Drew.
I think Drew makes sense as well for the same reasons Bags mentions. $14M for a season of him is an overpay of the same kind that Victorino was. He was pretty valuable during the season. I could deal with him for one more year while they shake out WMB and XB.

Ellsbury turns down the QO as soon as its offered. It's probably 50% below what he wants per year.

Napoli gets the offer only as a negotiating tool. Most likely we look to sign him for similar money over the short term (2yrs+opt or 3yrs).


Without any QO attached to them, Salty will most likely get 3 years 30-40mil. And Drew about the same. Will having a draft pick attached to them hurt their value enough that they are forced to take the QO?
Although, I 100% agree that I don't want either of them back.

I don't want Napoli back either, especially long term. I know I am in the minority there... But there are no good alternatives other than a trade for 1B.

The former system of FA compensation had a strong cooling effect on contracts. The A/B/C ranking system was flawed in a number of ways. It tended to overemphasize counting stats and it's rolling 3 season averages assumed that injured players had the same level of performance during their injury years (think of Lackey missing 2012). As a result there were a lot of marginal players who earned Type B status after 1 career year and a decent job as a UTL guy. The system sucked for those guys. It also hurt fading stars who earned Type A status from production two seasons ago but who were no longer "that guy."

The QO process was created to correct that trend and receiving a QO has had minimal effect on player salaries. While it's true that the top 22 teams have to give up their first-round draft pick, the nature of the QO is that it's generally offered only to the "top" players in the FA pool because of the potential financial exposure. Teams sign a guy who was offered a QO with an expectation that he's worth the money (unlike the flaws I mentioned for the poorly earned Type A/B status).

Even the Sox will have to be careful about the list of candidates to whom they offer QOs. They've got $110M committed to 2014 without picking up Lester's option (which could turn into a more expensive extension). Morales, Miller, and Carp all have arb decisions (Doubront missed arb qualification by 2 days -- wonder if that was intentional?). If they offered to most of their FAs they could be in rough shape for a season... because they cannot negotiate with the players if they accept the offer; it's a guaranteed one year deal.

Note that, as I suggested earlier, the QO is just over $14M this year (actually, $14.1M (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/qualifying-offers-for-mlb-free-agents-this-offseason-set-at-141-million?ymd=20131014&content_id=62941330&vkey=news_mlb)). The Sox are partly to blame for the $800K hike; the overpayments they made drove up the QO.

I also think you're WAY to high on Salty. I'll be shocked if he cracks $10M/yr for any contract other than a QO. Bags had the value right the other day -- $25-$28.5M for 3yrs. I don't care for him at that rate and certainly not for a QO.

Drew might get the $30M-40M/3yrs though. He was considered to be signing a "pillow contract" this year at $9.5M.

grandsalami
10-31-2013, 01:37 PM
“@nickcafardo: Scott Boras told me he's already received 11 phone calls on Jacoby Ellsbury from GM's around baseball/”

-Lavigne43-
10-31-2013, 01:52 PM
This stuff annoys me. You can't wait until after the parade to start washing his balls?

Ben5736
10-31-2013, 03:00 PM
If he stays in Boston and be healthy, he has a remote chance of getting number 2 retired for him.

B'sCeltsPatsSox
10-31-2013, 03:05 PM
This stuff annoys me. You can't wait until after the parade to start washing his balls?

Boras is definitely bullshitting.

gcoll
10-31-2013, 03:36 PM
By that time he can be in left or right.. What's wrong with that?

The price. I think the money is better spent elsewhere.

I won't be too sad if they keep him. But I just worry about overpaying.

Lackeyfan41
10-31-2013, 03:39 PM
Boras is definitely bullshitting.

I am surprised Boras didn't say some NFL teams were calling him also because Ells is going to transform into a RB if he doesn't get a contract over 140 Mil.

**** Boras. Everything that comes out of his mouth is ********.

Super.
10-31-2013, 06:58 PM
I hate Scott Boras with a burning passion

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 09:10 PM
By that time he can be in left or right.. What's wrong with that?

Because paying a corner OF $20M+ a year to SLG .438 isn't a sound idea.

filihok
11-01-2013, 01:58 AM
I am surprised Boras didn't say some NFL teams were calling him also because Ells is going to transform into a RB if he doesn't get a contract over 140 Mil.
Should Ellsbury expect a contract over $140 million?

Clay Davenport does projections at his website. One of the cooler features is that he does projections 6 years into the future.

What do Ellsbury's projections (http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ELLSBURY19830911A.shtml) look like?


2014 36 runs above replacement
2015 36
2016 30
2017 31
2018 28
2019 28

That's a total of 189 runs above replacement over 6 seasons. 1 WAR is about 10 runs above replacement so 189 runs is around 19 to 20 WAR. 1 WAR is about $6 million. Using that we'd expect Ellsbury's contract to be for something around ($6 million per WAR * 20 WAR) $120 million.

That's close to, but a little shy of, the $140 that Boras is asking for.

There might be reasons for this beyond Ellsbury and Boras being greedy. The biggest is that I didn't factor any inflation into the contract. Things get more expensive as time goes on - baseball players included.

Assuming 5% inflation per season the value on 1 WAR in 2019 (the last year of Ellsbury's 6-year contract) would be $7.7 million. Significantly higher than the $6 million that we assumed.

If we refigure Ellsbury's contract with 5% inflation the new value of his WAR comes out to $127.5 million. Still shy of Boras' $140 million.

Yup, that Boras, he's just plain greedy.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 06:00 AM
Should Ellsbury expect a contract over $140 million?

Clay Davenport does projections at his website. One of the cooler features is that he does projections 6 years into the future.

What do Ellsbury's projections (http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ELLSBURY19830911A.shtml) look like?


2014 36 runs above replacement
2015 36
2016 30
2017 31
2018 28
2019 28

That's a total of 189 runs above replacement over 6 seasons. 1 WAR is about 10 runs above replacement so 189 runs is around 19 to 20 WAR. 1 WAR is about $6 million. Using that we'd expect Ellsbury's contract to be for something around ($6 million per WAR * 20 WAR) $120 million.

That's close to, but a little shy of, the $140 that Boras is asking for.

There might be reasons for this beyond Ellsbury and Boras being greedy. The biggest is that I didn't factor any inflation into the contract. Things get more expensive as time goes on - baseball players included.

Assuming 5% inflation per season the value on 1 WAR in 2019 (the last year of Ellsbury's 6-year contract) would be $7.7 million. Significantly higher than the $6 million that we assumed.

If we refigure Ellsbury's contract with 5% inflation the new value of his WAR comes out to $127.5 million. Still shy of Boras' $140 million.

Yup, that Boras, he's just plain greedy.

Interesting, but:

1. no way he plays that many games per season on average through a six year period
2. CD's proposed CS% are ridiculously high right off the bat. Perhaps in the last 2-3 years he'll steal in that range and get caught in that range, but first 3 years? No.
3. It's ridiculous to peg his runs scored so low - is that tied to him going to an average offensive team? If he goes to Texas, NYY, stays in Boston - he's going to smash those numbers. Better to not even predict until we know the team/park/line-up he ends up with

It is interesting to consider Ellsbury in Yankee Stadium, he's got power to the that porch, and instead of being a 9-14 HR guy in a bigger field, he could be a 18-25 HR guys there (witness a declined Damon got a lease on life over there).

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 06:02 AM
Boras is definitely bullshitting.

I'm sure if he is, it's in the range of a bit less than 2x. I.E. I'm quite sure the minimum number would be six not counting the Red Sox (if you could QO as a bid, which it should be, than it's 7+).

RedSoxtober
11-01-2013, 03:43 PM
Should Ellsbury expect a contract over $140 million?

Clay Davenport does projections at his website. One of the cooler features is that he does projections 6 years into the future.

What do Ellsbury's projections (http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ELLSBURY19830911A.shtml) look like?
Those projections are pretty flawed. First, they are based on Ellsbury playing for the Sox. They would have to be adjusted if he played elsewhere. Second, they take 2013 as the baseline and project only minor tweaks from that baseline over the next six years. That's a bid absurd and, again, highly subject to change should he switch home parks. Third, he somehow conjures a ridiculous, sustained power surge for Ellsbury. I don't see any basis for this whatsoever. He has Ellsbury average 17HR over 6yrs when he's only hit double-digits twice? Hell no. That may be the worst projection of all for your argument given its WAR implications.

AI
11-01-2013, 03:46 PM
If Ells costs somewhere close to 6 years/$112M, I might bite there.

homie564
11-01-2013, 03:51 PM
I think 6yrs/108M is the fairest price. Inflate that probably to the 6yrs/132M he'll probably ask for and go in between 6yrs/120M is my cut off. Its high but a reasonable expectation.

aabar4518
11-05-2013, 12:11 PM
I love Ellsbury, but there's no way I go anywhere over four years. I share the obvious concerns of everyone: lost all his power, he's 30+, how much longer can he rely on his speed, injuries have been an issue (yes, I know, they were on freak accidents...).

If I'm a GM, I'm staying away from a 6+ year deal at all costs.

PapelbonLester
11-13-2013, 02:44 AM
4 years 100 mill. The man is key to our success. Very underrated player for our team. The man constantly was on base stealing and scoring. One of the best SOX CF of all time and ill cry when/if i see him in another jersey.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz

My favorite 1-3 ever. :horse::horse::horse::horse:

Lackeyfan41
11-13-2013, 03:44 AM
4 years 100 mill. The man is key to our success. Very underrated player for our team. The man constantly was on base stealing and scoring. One of the best SOX CF of all time and ill cry when/if i see him in another jersey.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz

My favorite 1-3 ever. :horse::horse::horse::horse:

yep, me too. But we can't pay him for what he has done in the past.

It is time to move on if he wants over 100 Mil

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 08:49 AM
4 years for $100M? Problem is Ells won't be worth much after 4 years, so he's got to grab up a 6 or 7 year deal, and cash in now.

6 for 120-138 range or 7 for 135-150 range...

Not worth either.

Bo Sox Fan
11-13-2013, 09:39 AM
Put the draft pick in the bank and go re-acquire Coco Crisp from the Oakland A's if you want speed.

He would probably cost next to nothing to get via trade, and he has a better arm in center field than Ellsbury. In a bind, I'm sure that he could also play right field, and save a 6 year, $120 million + commitment.

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 09:45 AM
Put the draft pick in the bank and go re-acquire Coco Crisp from the Oakland A's if you want speed.

He would probably cost next to nothing to get via trade, and he has a better arm in center field than Ellsbury. In a bind, I'm sure that he could also play right field, and save a 6 year, $120 million + commitment.

Not so much:

1. Crisp is coming off of two very good years and is signed for a very reasonable $7.5M for '14.
2. Mr. Moneyball will extract a nice payment for Crisp (one of the face's of his franchise) - probably at the deadline from a contending team with a broken CF. The value of the trade is liable to exceed a sandwich pick.
3. Crisp's OBP isn't high enough to be a leadoff hitter in Boston. Big payment in specs for lower third bat that just turned 34 with one year of control. Nope. There are at least 3 RHH CF's on the open market that just cost cash to buy to go with JBJ.