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View Full Version : 2013 Mock Offseason Playoffs WCF: 1 LA Lakers vs. 3 Portland Blazers



PatsSoxKnicks
09-01-2013, 03:02 AM
Every summer, PSD holds a game which mocks that year's NBA offseason. This year, users from the site took the reigns of NBA franchises and had to utilize their skills via draft, trades, and free agency to improve their teams. At the end of the game, GMs voted on how they believed the regular season of this game would shake up. These are the playoffs of PSD's 2013 NBA Mock Offseason.

Please take the time to consider each line up, the match-up itself, and vote on which team you believe would win in a seven game series.

The Lakers have homecourt advantage.

Lakers Depth Chart:

Kyrie Irving (35) / Devin Harris (13)
Kevin Martin (30) / Devin Harris (10) / Anthony Morrow (8)
Chandler Parsons (32) / Gerald Wallace (12) / Jae Crowder (4)
Dirk Nowitzki (34) / Terrence Jones (8) /Jae Crowder (6) / Lamar Odom
Dwight Howard (36) / Ian Mahinmi (12) / Anthony Randolph

Blazers Depth Chart:

Playoff Rotation (mpg)
PG: Derrick Rose (36) Jamal Crawford (12) Daniel Gibson (Reserve)
SG: Wesley Matthews (28) Lance Stephenson (12) Jamal Crawford (8)
SF: Shawn Marion (32) Draymond Green (16)
PF: Zach Randolph (35) Kris Humphries (13)
C: Andrew Bogut (32) Kendrick Perkins (16) Donatas Motiejunas (Reserve)
6th man: Jamal Crawford (20mpg)

Lakers Write-up:


Congrats to Shammy after a whirl wind of trades in the conference his Blazers rose from a lottery pretender to a conference finals contender. I commend what he did with the team but I believe with sincere confidence that the Blazers journey ends here.

Reason 1: Derrick Rose. This team is so utterly reliant on him to be successful. Yes every team is reliant on their best player but we're talking about a guy who just sat out for a year. Rose would need to have a MVP esque series averaging 35-5-8 to even keep them in games. It's a lot of weight on the guys shoulders. None of us really know what will see from Derrick til he gets back out on that court and proves it to us. Physically in this game we're assuming he's healthy but what about mentally? There have been questions in regards to him being scared to come back and play. There are allegations that the pressure and expectations mounted on this young man may have their toll. Again it's a massive storyline until we see him prove us wrong.

Reason 2: Zach Randolph is their second option. This is bad for a few reasons. He is a lesser player than Dirk he isn't going to be efficient in large quantities. The spacing with him and Bogut is bad. Against Dirk and Dallas last year Z-bo put up a monstrous 12.3 points per contest, on a tame 43% shooting. Z-bo wants to be in that key. He shot 66% of his shots last season from right in close. So he's going to have Dirk and likely Dwight in close proximity on the majority of his attempts. Andrew Bogut takes 78% of his shots from the post. so essentially both of them want to come camp that low block, which works for us because it leaves Dirk and Dwight at home and in position to grab the rebound. The other thing it does for us; consistently leaves the key congested with four very big bodies. Marion is at the end of his rope and primary offensive weapon is a stupid little floater in the lane which will be packed. Rose makes his money attacking that basket and he's coming off a 1 year hiatus where we really don't know what he's capable of and he won't have a lot of room to operate down low. All in all I think the more Z-bo and Bogut are on the court together the better off we are.

Reason 3: Defense. We're going to do a better job of limiting the Blazers than they will do to us. I've already explained that clogging up the key is going to hurt the offensive output of 4 of their 5 starters. Wes Matthews who is the one player on their team with range is going to be guarded by Chandler Parsons. Parsons is a good defender with massive length and reach. He's not going to let Wes get uncontested jumpers off. They just don't have good spacing. The team will lack a good offensive flow. However we are going to spread them right out and do damage. It's going to be tough to double anyone on our squad. Dirk will draw Z-bo out of the paint leaving Dwight alone with Bogut. If Dirk starts to burn Z-bo in the mid range game and a double comes from the perimeter than they're leaving an elite shooter open in Parson, Martin or Kyrie. If they try to stop Kyrie off the dribble in double he's going to have Dwight or Dirk off the screen whether it's a pop or a roll. This offense quite plainly is very good and can be successful in just about any capacity.

In conclusion we will spread the Blazers out and run the score up while their offense both lacking fire power, and failing to find a rhythm will be their downfall in the series.


Blazers Write-up:


Congratulations on the Lakers’ easy advancement to the WCFs. This is where it will get tougher though. The Blazers match up well with this Lakers’ team and have the tools necessary to advance to the Finals:

The Lakers team starts with Dwight Howard, who showed last year that he may not be the same player he once was (only averaging 17/12 for the year while also fouling at the HIGHEST rate for his career at 3.8 fouls per game & per36 minutes played). Dwight also posted career-lows in ORtg (105) and ORB% (10.4%). On top of that, Dwight had his 2nd worst season in total rebound percentage, defensive rebound percentage, and WS/48. Along with that he posted his 3rd worst season in true shooting percentage (57.3%), PER (19.4), USG%, DRtg. Bottom line: Dwight just isn’t the same player he was in Orlando.

The primary players that will be defending Dwight will be Andrew Bogut and Kendrick Perkins. In head-to-head matchups, Bogut has limited Dwight to averages almost identical to his output this past season (17/13 on a 59.9ts% in 15 games) and Perkins has limited Dwight to averages of 16/13 on a 53.6ts% (in 27 games). Obviously, Dwight can be slowed down and we have the players to do it.

Dwight’s right-hand man will be Dirk Nowitzki, who also showed last season that he just is not the same player he once was. He posted averages of 17/7 on a 56.4ts% (which is his 2nd worst efficiency rate over the past 13 years) and a 24.2usg% (which is also his 2nd lowest usage rate over the past 13 seasons. His advanced numbers last year was a PER of 19.8 and 0.145 WS/48 (both career-worsts over the past 13 years). Heck, even compared to two seasons ago Dirk has regressed exceptionally well. Dirk is one of the worst rebounders at his position, posting a trb% of 11.8% over the past four seasons (offensive rebound rate of 2.7% = eww).

The primary players defending Dirk is a combination of Zach Randolph and Kris Humphries. Believe it or not, Zach Randolph has matched up exceptionally well versus Dirk in their careers. Dirk has managed to average 21/8 versus Randolph in 34 games, but he’s scoring at a pace of only a 56.7ts% (very close to Dirk’s production last year). Over their past 10 games though (dating back to 2010) Dirk’s been reduced slightly to a 56.2ts%. In comparison though, Randolph has averaged 19/9 on a 58.5ts%. Z-Bo has had his way with Dirk even more than Dirk has had his way with Randolph.

The third player in the Lakers’ front-court is Chandler Parsons, who was simply above-average last season if you look at his PER (15.3) and WS/48 (.121). However, he did post a 58.4ts% - and that presents a problem. That is, it presents a problem if you can’t rely on someone to stop Parsons from putting up those numbers, which does not apply to the Blazers. We have Shawn Marion, a wonderful defender, who will be covering Parsons every second he is on the court. Marion has the length to contest every shot Parsons attempts, and Marion still has the speed necessary to chase him around the court.

The backcourt of the Lakers consists of Irving at point guard and Martin at shooting guard. Rose will be covering Irving every second Irving is on the court, which bodes well for us considering Rose is a great defender (during his MVP year, he allowed just 0.77 points per possession overall on defense, and in isolation allowed only 0.61 points per possession). Rose has the strength, size, and speed to take Irving out of the game, and he will.

At the 2-guard spot, Martin will be seeing three defenders: Crawford, Martin, and Stephenson. While Crawford is not a fabulous defender by any stretch, both Martin and Stephenson have the size and speed to chase Martin around and limit him into a jump-shooter (he only shoots 39.8% on jump-shots).

The Lakers have a lot of shooting surrounded by Dwight, but the Blazers center duo of Bogut/Perkins have the ability to play Dwight one-on-one. This means we’ll seldom have to double team him, which will mitigate the wide open threes on the perimeter. We also have Rose playing Irving, which will decrease the penetration attempts that the Lakers will have by a grand amount, further limiting the spacing that they will have. This will be a tough task, but we feel we matchup well enough on the defensive end to give our offense just enough to make this series an upset.

After taking a look at how we match up with the Lakers on the defensive end, we must point out how big of a mismatch we pose on the boards. The Lakers team as a whole is not a good rebounding team. This is how the front-courts shaped up the past four seasons (last year in parentheses) compared to the Blazers:
Dwight – 21.2trb% (19.1trb%) …………. Bogut – 17.8trb% (17.2trb%)
Dirk – 11.8trb% (12.2trb%) ……………... Randolph – 19.0trb% (19.3trb%)
Parsons – 8.8trb% (8.3trb%) ...………….. Marion – 13.4trb% (14.5trb%)

That’s a pretty significant difference, especially when you look at the way that the front-courts rebound on the offensive end during that same time frame of four seasons (last year in parentheses):
Dwight – 11.6orb% (10.4orb%) …………. Bogut – 9.7orb% (9.8orb%)
Dirk – 2.7orb% (2.5orb%) ……………... Randolph – 13.4orb% (13.8orb%)
Parsons – 4.3orb% (3.3orb%) ...………….. Marion – 8.4orb% (8.2orb%)

Z-Bo’s offensive rebound rate even surpasses Dirk’s total-rebounding rate. AND the same goes for Marion – Marion’s offensive rebound rate nearly surpasses Parsons’ total-rebounding rate. My front-court provides second-chance points, and the Lakers’ simply will not. That’s a HUGE advantage that the Blazers have in this series. The Blazers simply have the ability to BOTH limit the Lakers’ offensive opportunities and capitalize on our own offensive boards, giving our team extra possessions and increased chances to win each game.

The Blazers have the best player in this series in Derrick Rose, a former MVP. Here is an excerpt from the last round:


Our offense is led by a former MVP in Derrick Rose. Since his third year in the league he has posted a 54.5ts%, 48.2efg%, 31.6usg% and a 113 ORtg over the past two seasons. His PER during that span has been 23.4 with a .209 WS/48. Everyone rips on Rose for his overall efficiency, but a 54.5ts% with a usage rate of 31.6% is damn good. He’s had a 113 ORtg over that span as previously stated, WITHOUT a true number two option and without a second ball-handler. Now, Rose has a great complement next to him in Zach Randolph and a second-ball handler in Jamal Crawford to relieve the stress on Rose’s need to score. Not only will this trio help Rose out, but it will also significantly help Randolph since he has always been the #1 option on offense. Decreasing his number of touches will help increase his efficiency tremendously, and there’s not a better point guard in the league to help draw attention away from Z-Bo than Derrick Rose.

But what Rose needs most in order to thrive is accurate spacing:
Over the past four seasons, Matthews & Crawford have combined to shoot 2,737 three point attempts. They have managed to make 1,026 of those shots which means collectively they have shot 37.5% from three point land the past four seasons. When you factor in that Crawford is a true second ball-handler, the offense surrounding Rose is perfect. One of the facets on offense that Rose thrives in most is the drive and kick, and having these players on the perimeter with him every second Rose is in the game will give Rose the necessary spacing to be effective in the paint. Our complementary players on offense in Bogut/Marion not only give us positives on the glass, but they are also low-usage players which complement the higher-usage guys in Rose/Randolph and even Crawford. Not to mention, Bogut showed this past post-season with the Warriors that when he is on a contending team, he will produce plenty offensively. In the playoffs Bogut posted a 55.8ts% and a 107 ORtg, and he did so without needing the ball. Shawn Marion this past season with the Mavericks posted a 55.3ts% on a 19.0usg% as well. That’s without saying that his cutting and crashing the boards after the defense collapses on Rose will help Marion maintain his offensive production.

The same concepts will be applied to this round – only, the Lakers are an inferior team defensively compared to the Grizzlies. Yes the Lakers have Dwight Howard anchoring their defense, but the Grizzlies had Marc Gasol. That equates to a wash. The Lakers have Dirk Nowitzki defending Randolph, and Randolph has posted even better numbers versus Dirk than versus Paul Millsap in the respective head-to-head matchups. The Lakers have Parsons versus Dudley, which is also a wash. So collectively as a whole, their front-court is at best equal to the Grizzlies’ team. However, the Lakers backcourt duo of Irving/Martin is the WORST in this entire game. With Devin Harris off the bench. How do the Lakers expect to stop the penetration of Derrick Rose & Jamal Crawford? They simply cannot. The defense of the Lakers will allow the Blazers to score in just the ways that they need to in order to win --- and they will be absolutely murdered on the boards (perhaps even more than Memphis last series).

If the Lakers feel like fouling after our players beat their defenders, then fine: Rose/Matthews/Marion/Randolph/Bogut/Crawford have shot a combined 2,852 out of 3,601 on their free throws over the past 3 seasons… that equates to a 79.2ft%. The only two teams this past year in the NBA that would beat that ft% would be the Thunder and the Mavericks. This offense can do anything: it can score in isolation from multiple spots on the floor, it can score in the paint and on the perimeter, and it can score in transition and in a half-court set.

Another excerpt from the previous series:

Back to the catalyst of this team: Derrick Rose. He will primarily be guarded by Rajon Rondo, which bodes well for Portland. In the head-to-head matchups previously discussed, Derrick Rose has posted a 57.7ts%, a 54.7efg%, and has averaged 21.4ppg. Talk about a true number one option being damn efficient going up against a defender in Rondo that hasn’t been that good for a few years. Yes, Marc Gasol is the DPOY, but he is not enough to stop Derrick Rose.

That was Derrick Rose going up against Rajon Rondo, who even past his prime is a significantly better defender than Kyrie Irving. The same results will hold true, and Derrick Rose will have his way with this Lakers’ defense with the proper weapons surrounding him. The Blazers also arguably have the best bench in the league. Crawford/Stephenson/Green/Humphries/Perkins will hold down the fort and keep us in games versus their bench of Harris/Wallace/Jones/Mahinmi.

Overall, the Blazers have great defensive players to minimize any isolation offense the Lakers will run (Derrick Rose, Shawn Marion, and Andrew Bogut). Rose has the ability to guard any perimeter player on the Lakers thanks to his length, strength, and athleticism. With Bogut anchoring the paint, and Matthews/Marion/Stephenson keeping the shooters honest, the Lakers offense will not be as effective as some may think. All in all, the Blazers have just enough firepower to pour salt on the wounds of the Lakers and pull off an upset in this series.

TrueFan420
09-01-2013, 03:31 AM
This is tough LA has a very good team but I really like this blazer squad and its depth. Gonna hold off on voting for a lil.

PatsSoxKnicks
09-01-2013, 04:17 AM
This matchup will be up an extra day (through Tuesday) so those who are on vacation will still be able to vote.

PatsSoxKnicks
09-01-2013, 04:28 AM
Wanna read both write-ups and too tired to give the matchup my thoughts right now. I will admit I'm leaning Lakers but I will read both write-ups and then vote on Tuesday (as you guys know, will be gone tomorrow and Monday)

Guppyfighter
09-01-2013, 04:31 AM
Voting Lakers, sadly. The Blazers team is the best defensive team by far in this mock up, but they don't have the offense to keep going from here.

Mr. Baller
09-01-2013, 08:01 AM
Lakers in 3

jericho
09-01-2013, 10:21 AM
Im sorry shammy but no amount of write-up is gonna convince me that the Blazers is team is better than the Lakers. Lakers are way more balanced. The D12 Dirk combo is a match made in heaven plus you got Parsons on your team the ultimate role player and K-Mart 2 it creates great spacing for Kyrie to drive and dismantle the D

Ebbs
09-01-2013, 01:36 PM
What I took away from Shammys write up.

Dwight and Dirk aren't what they used to be but Derrick Rose is in MVP form lol.

Dirk has easily outplayed Randolph. It's a bad matchup.

If Dwight wants to give 17-12 and play defense that's fine. I'm not the Magic this team does not need 25 from Dwight to win.

Ebbs
09-01-2013, 01:57 PM
Also if a mod can sticky this and take down the old one.

TrueFan420
09-01-2013, 02:05 PM
What I took away from Shammys write up.

Dwight and Dirk aren't what they used to be but Derrick Rose is in MVP form lol.

Dirk has easily outplayed Randolph. It's a bad matchup.

If Dwight wants to give 17-12 and play defense that's fine. I'm not the Magic this team does not need 25 from Dwight to win.
I'm leaning towards your squad because that starting unit is extremely good but you have zero bench. The blazer might have the best bench in the mock and a very balanced unit. And since we assuming all players are healthy the biggest question mark in this series for me is dirk vs zbo. I'm still holding off on voting want to see more arguments for both teams

Shammyguy3
09-01-2013, 03:43 PM
What I took away from Shammys write up.

Dwight and Dirk aren't what they used to be but Derrick Rose is in MVP form lol.

Dirk has easily outplayed Randolph. It's a bad matchup.

If Dwight wants to give 17-12 and play defense that's fine. I'm not the Magic this team does not need 25 from Dwight to win.

1) yeah, Dwight & Dirk both aren't what they used to be.

2) When Rose won an MVP, he had no second ball-handler and no true 2nd option. Now, we're assuming full health AND Rose has a second ball-handler in Crawford and a 2nd option in Randolph. Even an 80% Derrick Rose is enough in this series since he finally has the right tools around him.

3) Apparently you missed this entire part of the write-up: "Over their past 10 games though (dating back to 2010) Dirk’s been reduced slightly to a 56.2ts%. In comparison though, Randolph has averaged 19/9 on a 58.5ts%. Z-Bo has had his way with Dirk even more than Dirk has had his way with Randolph."

Randolph's been more efficient than Dirk (without an MVP in Rose taking attention away) and has been better on the boards.

4) While you may not need Dwight to get 25 a game to win, you'll need more production out of him than you're letting on. And we have the defenders in Bogut/Perkins to play him straight up, to prevent Irving from getting into the paint with Rose, and Marion/Matthews/Stephenson covering Parsons on the wing.

Which pretty much leads to you depending solely on Dirk Nowitzki's matchup versus Z-Bo, which I showed earlier is a wash. And Dirk showed this past season down the stretch that he couldn't lead a team like he once could. Over the last month of the season when Dallas was fighting for a playoff spot, Dirk managed a pedestrian 53.0ts% 47.6efg% 24.9usg% 108 ORtg.


Your team is great, but you don't matchup as well as you anticipated. The Blazers have what it takes to upset your Lakers and advance to the Finals. Compare Rose's situation with other superstars in this league. When they finally get the right pieces surrounding them, their level of play excels. And pairing Rose with Matthews - Marion - Randolph - Bogut + Crawford - Stephenson - Green - Humphries - Perkins off the bench... well, that's the best team (with true weapons) Rose has ever played on.

Ebbs
09-01-2013, 04:25 PM
Basically though you're wrong on Dirk because your acting like he's on his own. He has Dwight Kyrie and two very good role players all starting with him. . .

Dwight and Dirk both played hurt last year:. That was them at 80%. However they at least showed they were both capable stars still. Rose didn't tie a lace. I think your value system is a little skewed.

Honestly Shammy I don't think you'd vote for your team if it wasn't your team.

Ebbs
09-01-2013, 11:11 PM
Sticky please*

Shammyguy3
09-02-2013, 01:01 AM
Basically though you're wrong on Dirk because your acting like he's on his own. He has Dwight Kyrie and two very good role players all starting with him. . .

Dwight and Dirk both played hurt last year:. That was them at 80%. However they at least showed they were both capable stars still. Rose didn't tie a lace. I think your value system is a little skewed.

Honestly Shammy I don't think you'd vote for your team if it wasn't your team.

Rose will be covering Irving quite well, I've already discussed how great Rose is in defending isolation. Dirk yes, he is the biggest mismatch and if we were to lose the series it would be because of him. But, you're giving your defense too much credit i feel. Dwight's defensive role on the Lakers last year is exactly what his role is on your team, if not a bigger task. And Dwight lead that Lakers team to an unimpressive 106.6 team DRtg (20th in the league). Your defense will exhibit the same flaws that Lakers defense had, especially when you factor in that Derrick Rose & Jamal Crawford will be covered by Kyrie Irving & Kevin Martin respectively.

If you think your offense will make up for your defensive woes that's cool, but I just don't think my team would have problems limiting your offense just enough to where we can win this series in 7 games.

This might come down to who has the biggest mismatch in terms of "my offensive guy versus your defensive guy." And I'd take Rose beating Irving to win a series over Dirk beating Randolph.

Shammyguy3
09-02-2013, 10:46 AM
Bump... can a mod please sticky this?

Eagles4Lyfe
09-02-2013, 11:05 AM
I've said it a million times before and people blew me of but Blazers are a legit threat to Lakers and only team in that conference that I felt would've possibly given Ebbs a run for his money and Shammy literally banged that write up.

I dunno if your taking him lightly or not Ebbs and I can understand why cause no need to argue since your up big, but people should really read up before voting, not reading is a big Fail.

I'm in a conundrum, I need to think long and hard because Bogut is the one thing that's practically worrying me on the Blazers team. I love their depth to throw at the Lakers and bodies to throw at Dwight, but can Bogut make Dwight work defensively is my concern. I know coming out of college and in college he had a bit of a jumper but with all the injuries, he's looked to have lost some of his speed and I dunno how he's been as a shooter ever since.

The stats Shammy posted also have some merit in regards to Dirk+Howard because Dwight is coming of a year he had Pau who IMO is a far better defender than Dirk and above average defenders at the SG and SF spot, whereas this Lakers team only has an above average defender at the 3 and aside from that Dwight will be doing a lot of help defense, which like Shammy posted can get in him foul trouble.

But on the flip side, I think Parsons can attack Marion a bit and love the edge the Lakers have there. I think Parsons ability to add some offense can be the big difference maker in this match up. Lakers have better spacing to in their starting 5.

I'll be back later tonight after doing my write up and make a final decision on my vote.

KnicksorBust
09-02-2013, 08:16 PM
LakeShow.

Rose is too far removed from actually playing a game to deserve the credit of carrying a team like the Blazers to an upset win. Lakers cruise to the finals. These were my top two teams in the West in my rankings and this was a well-deserved run by both GMs.

Bruno
09-03-2013, 03:17 PM
Major props to Portland for putting together a contender. That shouldn't even have been possible considering the pieces you started with. Portland has the best bench in the redraft and Rose certainly has more help now than he ever has in Chicago.

I still have to pick the Lakers. The explosiveness of Rose is uncertain and I think that cancels out what Howard has become. I have no doubts that Dirk can still be brilliant, especially with this team catering to his every need. Too much fire power in the Los Angeles starting five for the perfectly balanced Portland team to overcome. This Lakers team doesn't lose game seven at home, if it were to get that far.

Lakers, brilliant works Ebbs.

Sadds The Gr8
09-03-2013, 06:34 PM
Lakers In 5

Durant is hype
09-07-2013, 12:32 AM
Blazers in 6. - Kyrie & Dirk madly overrated in PSD I see.

Ebbs
09-07-2013, 12:41 AM
:laugh:

Durant is hype
09-07-2013, 01:01 PM
:laugh:

Derrick Rose>Kyire Irving
Wesley Matthews=Kevin Martin
Shawn Marion>Chandler Parsons
Zach>Dirk
Bogut<Dwight

The only thing that hurts the Blazers is Perkins & Crawford getting significant minutes.

Shammyguy3
09-07-2013, 06:11 PM
Crawford's one of the best 6th men in the game, he should be getting significant minutes :laugh2:
And Perkins is playing 16 minutes a game --- :laugh: that's not "significant" at all

Durant is hype
09-07-2013, 06:38 PM
Crawford's one of the best 6th men in the game, he should be getting significant minutes :laugh2:
And Perkins is playing 16 minutes a game --- :laugh: that's not "significant" at all

Jamal Crawford is not one of the best 6th men, he shoots a lot,doesn't do much else. Perk is so bad 16 minutes hurts ,but I'll give you that one.

king4day
09-08-2013, 11:19 AM
Pretty shocked how lopsided this was. Portland is very balanced and has the better 6th man.

Shammyguy3
09-09-2013, 12:50 AM
Jamal Crawford is not one of the best 6th men, he shoots a lot,doesn't do much else. Perk is so bad 16 minutes hurts ,but I'll give you that one.

He scores a lot and at does it at great efficiency 16.5ppg off the bench on a 55.8ts% 51.1efg%

That's magnificent, and he easily could have won 6th man of the year last season.

Durant is hype
09-09-2013, 01:55 AM
He scores a lot and at does it at great efficiency 16.5ppg off the bench on a 55.8ts% 51.1efg%

That's magnificent, and he easily could have won 6th man of the year last season.

55% TS is not great.

Shammyguy3
09-09-2013, 02:07 AM
it's a lot closer to a 56ts% than a 58.... and his usage rate was at 26.0

For a guard, that absolutely is great.