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View Full Version : 2013 Mock Offseason Playoffs 2nd round: 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. 3 Portland Blazers



PatsSoxKnicks
08-28-2013, 11:53 PM
Every summer, PSD holds a game which mocks that year's NBA offseason. This year, users from the site took the reigns of NBA franchises and had to utilize their skills via draft, trades, and free agency to improve their teams. At the end of the game, GMs voted on how they believed the regular season of this game would shake up. These are the playoffs of PSD's 2013 NBA Mock Offseason.

Please take the time to consider each line up, the match-up itself, and vote on which team you believe would win in a seven game series.

The Grizzlies have homecourt advantage.

Grizzlies Depth Chart:

PG: Rajon Rondo/Kirk Hinrich
SG: J.J. Redick/Francisco Garcia/Sam Young
SF: Jared Dudley/Quincy Pondexter/James Jones
PF: Paul Millsap/Tyler Zeller/Kenny Kadji
C: Marc Gasol/Tyler Zeller

Blazers Depth Chart:

Playoff Rotation (mpg)
PG: Derrick Rose (36) Jamal Crawford (12) Daniel Gibson (Reserve)
SG: Wesley Matthews (28) Lance Stephenson (12) Jamal Crawford (8)
SF: Shawn Marion (32) Draymond Green (16)
PF: Zach Randolph (35) Kris Humphries (13)
C: Andrew Bogut (32) Kendrick Perkins (16) Donatas Motiejunas (Reserve)
6th man: Jamal Crawford (20mpg)

Blazers Write-up:


We would like to wish the Grizzlies good luck in this matchup, it should be a great one. They did a fine job assembling their team, but they arenít a great matchup for us, and hereís why:

The Grizzlies have built their offense on spacing. It will be a difficult task to completely shut down their shooters, but making it difficult on them won't be. They have a well-rounded offense with a floor general in Rondo, but no true number one option. In order to win, each of their starting players would have to be on their A-game offensively to matchup with our defense. Without a true number one option, Rajon Rondo will have to assert himself offensively more than he'd want. His usage on the offensive end will be much higher than when he was surrounded with high usage players in their primes in Pierce/Allen/Garnett. With those guys Rondo's career-best season he posted efficiency rates of 54.3ts% 51.4efg% 19.2usg% 114 ORtg. Taking a look at the Grizzliesí roster, Rondo wonít be able to thrive like he did years ago. He will revert to the past 2 years performances where he has had a 49.8ts% 47.7efg% 21.2usg% 102 ORtgÖ and if he achieved those numbers I would still be impressed. Why is that exactly? Those numbers are pretty bad already, but heís been on teams where his average usage rate the past two years wasnít even in the top-3 respectively:

In 2011/12 Bostonís top usage players: Pierce (28.1%) Garnett (24.9%)
In 2012/13 Bostonís top usage players: Pierce (27.4%) Garnett (24.5%) Green (22.2%)

Now compare those offensive players with the other offensive players he has now: Paul Millsap & Marc Gasol. Millsapís posted a usage rate of 22.8% over the past two years, and Gasol has posted a usage rate of 19.2% the past two years. Both of those usage rates are lower than Pierceís and Garnettís. The reason this is detrimental to the Grizzliesí offense is because Rondo doesnít have the same high-volume efficient scorers on his team as heís grown accustomed to. If heís already had difficulty posting a 50.0ts% the past two years with better offensive options around him, why would he all of a sudden be more effective on a team that will depend on him to score more than ever before? Thatís without mentioning that the Grizzlies have NO sixth man scoring option coming off the bench to get easy points either via transition, the free throw line, or second-chance points.

This is a major flaw, and itís the basis of Memphisí offense. Itís the backbone that can be easily broken by forcing Rondo to become more of a scorer by keeping on the perimeter shooters. And, we have just the players to do it. Rose has helped limited Rondo to 11.4ppg on a 48.7ts% in their 12 career matchups. In the playoffs Rondo ends up scoring more against Rose, his points per game jumps up to 19.4ppg. His true shooting percentage remains the same: 48.8ts%. So, Rose forces Rondo to score more in the playoffs, and Rondo complies and ends up hurting his team more by posting an awful efficiency rate.

With Rondo being such an inefficient scorer, the Grizzlies MUST rebound the ball at a high rate. Only issue is, the Grizzlies front court is one of the worst rebounding trios in the playoffs. Over the past four seasons Gasol is a 13.9trb% (7.6% offensive rebound rate), Millsap is a 14.2trb% (8.9% offensive rebound rate), and Jared Dudley is a 7.8trb% (5.3% offensive rebound rate). When you put those rebounders on the court against the Blazersí front-court, and things will get ugly because we have Marion, Randolph, and BogutÖ all top rebounders at their positions. Marion has posted a 13.4trb% the past four seasons (8.4% offensive rebound rate). My small forward rebounds at almost the same pace Gasol, and actually is a better offensive rebounder. But, thatís just the beginning. Zach Randolph is one of the best rebounders in the league; over the past four years heís posted a 19.0trb% (13.4% offensive rebound rate). Z-Boís offensive rebound rate almost surpasses Gasolís total-rebounding rate. And thatís before even introducing Andrew Bogut, who has posted a 17.8trb% over the past four seasons (9.7% offensive rebound rate) as well.

Moving onto defense, the Blazers have great defensive players to minimize any isolation offense the Grizzlies will run (Derrick Rose, Shawn Marion, and Andrew Bogut). Rose has the ability to guard any perimeter player on Memphis thanks to his length, strength, and athleticism. Marion also has the ability to defend multiple positions on the court, which will allow us to go small if needed. With Bogut anchoring the paint, and Matthews/Marion/Stephenson keeping the shooters honest, the Grizzlies will have difficulty scoring enough every game to win this series. This is just a bad matchup for the Grizzlies offense. Depending on three players to score collectively (and efficiently) where none of them are high-volume usage players is a recipe for disaster when you canít capitalize on the boards. Depend on the three-ball, die by the three-ball unless you can score in another way. Which brings up the final point about the Memphis offense: they arenít exactly built for the fast-break , and they donít exactly draw a good number of fouls.

The league average this past season in FTA/FGA was 0.27 (according to hoopdata.com). Over the past three seasons, here is the Grizzliesí starting five:
Rondo --- 0.24 shooting 59.9%
Redick --- 0.25 shooting 89.7%
Dudley --- 0.28 shooting 75.4%
Millsap --- 0.35 shooting 76.1%
Gasol --- 0.40 shooting 78.2%

The rates at which the Grizzlies get to the line and convert are slightly above average, not enough to make up for the lack of fast break points and lack of second chance points.


Not only will their 2nd-chance opportunities on offense be limited, but their poor rebounding will result in Marion/Randolph/Bogut grabbing a ton of offensive rebounds. That three-some is the best offensive rebounding trio in these here playoffs. And when facing a dynamic offensive player in Derrick Rose (a true #1 option on a contending team), with shooters in Matthews & Crawford to space the floor, you must limit second-chance opportunities. This is something that the Grizzlies simply cannot do.

Now letís look at our offense and their defense:
Our offense is led by a former MVP in Derrick Rose. Since his third year in the league he has posted a 54.5ts%, 48.2efg%, 31.6usg% and a 113 ORtg over the past two seasons. His PER during that span has been 23.4 with a .209 WS/48. Everyone rips on Rose for his overall efficiency, but a 54.5ts% with a usage rate of 31.6% is damn good. Heís had a 113 ORtg over that span as previously stated, WITHOUT a true number two option and without a second ball-handler. Now, Rose has a great complement next to him in Zach Randolph and a second-ball handler in Jamal Crawford to relieve the stress on Roseís need to score. Not only will this trio help Rose out, but it will also significantly help Randolph since he has always been the #1 option on offense. Decreasing his number of touches will help increase his efficiency tremendously, and thereís not a better point guard in the league to help draw attention away from Z-Bo than Derrick Rose.

But what Rose needs most in order to thrive is accurate spacing:
Over the past four seasons, Matthews & Crawford have combined to shoot 2,737 three point attempts. They have managed to make 1,026 of those shots which means collectively they have shot 37.5% from three point land the past four seasons. When you factor in that Crawford is a true second ball-handler, the offense surrounding Rose is perfect. One of the facets on offense that Rose thrives in most is the drive and kick, and having these players on the perimeter with him every second Rose is in the game will give Rose the necessary spacing to be effective in the paint. Our complementary players on offense in Bogut/Marion not only give us positives on the glass, but they are also low-usage players which complement the higher-usage guys in Rose/Randolph and even Crawford. Not to mention, Bogut showed this past post-season with the Warriors that when he is on a contending team, he will produce plenty offensively. In the playoffs Bogut posted a 55.8ts% and a 107 ORtg, and he did so without needing the ball. Shawn Marion this past season with the Mavericks posted a 55.3ts% on a 19.0usg% as well. Thatís without saying that his cutting and crashing the boards after the defense collapses on Rose will help Marion maintain his offensive production.

Portlandís top-6 players over the past three seasons free throw rates per field goal attempt:
Rose --- 0.35 shooting 84.4%
Matthews --- 0.26 shooting 83.5%
Marion --- 0.16 shooting 77.9%
Randolph --- 0.31 shooting 74.4%
Bogut --- 0.26 shooting 46.4%
Crawford --- 0.27 shooting 88.1%

Now that is an offense with high-volume scorers that CAN and DO get to the line, and most importantly convert. Rose/Matthews/Marion/Randolph/Bogut have shot a combined 2,852 out of 3,601 on their free throws over the past 3 seasonsÖ that equates to a 79.2ft%. The only two teams this past year in the NBA that would beat that ft% would be the Thunder and the Mavericks. Talk about an efficient offensive unit right? This offense can do anything, it can score in isolation from multiple spots on the floor, it can score in the paint and on the perimeter, and it can score in transition and in a half-court set.

Back to the catalyst of this team: Derrick Rose. He will primarily be guarded by Rajon Rondo, which bodes well for Portland. In the head-to-head matchups previously discussed, Derrick Rose has posted a 57.7ts%, a 54.7efg%, and has averaged 21.4ppg. Talk about a true number one option being damn efficient going up against a defender in Rondo that hasnít been that good for a few years. Yes, Marc Gasol is the DPOY, but he is not enough to stop Derrick Rose.

All in all, the Grizzlies have a well-rounded team but not enough firepower. They rely far too heavily on the three ball and do not have a true number one option. They are not a contender until they fix that issue. They arenít built for the fast-break, they arenít built for second-chance points with their poor rebounding, and the sums of their parts wonít be able to beat a team consisting of Rose/Matthews/Marion/Randolph/Bogut + Crawford as a 6th man in a 7 game series.

Eagles4Lyfe
08-29-2013, 12:15 AM
Woah Baller n PL where you guys at?

TrueFan420
08-29-2013, 12:24 AM
Blazers easy. They got Bogut to protect the paint and cover for zbo. Zbo who can score in the paint. Marion is still solid. Rose is the best player. And a better bench.

PhillyLuver
08-29-2013, 12:09 PM
Wow Baller

Eagles4Lyfe
08-29-2013, 12:13 PM
Salvage it PL

unleashthebeast
08-29-2013, 12:52 PM
Baller slacking as always

greg_ory_2005
08-29-2013, 12:58 PM
Blazers

Ebbs
08-29-2013, 01:11 PM
Waiting for frizz reply but it might be to late down 6-0?

I honestly was leaning Grizz before it started.

Mr. Baller
08-29-2013, 01:31 PM
Not slacking, PL refused to do the writeup and I got a job promotion this past week and have been crazy busy with that and first week of school.

Eagles4Lyfe
08-29-2013, 01:35 PM
Waiting for frizz reply but it might be to late down 6-0?

I honestly was leaning Grizz before it started.
I was really interested on seeing this debate because they match up really nice and would've been interesting.

Not slacking, PL refused to do the writeup and I got a job promotion this past week and have been crazy busy with that and first week of school.

Damn man, what kinda promo?

Mr. Baller
08-29-2013, 02:13 PM
Im basically running an entire basketball league, and this week is tryouts, so I have been crazy busy. Basically went from just teaching basketball lessons to being one of the two people in charge

Eagles4Lyfe
08-29-2013, 02:21 PM
Damn the next Pat Riley eh..
Remember us if you ever make it up there

KnicksorBust
08-29-2013, 03:12 PM
To me you undress this matchup and a lot of it boils down how you feel about the frontcourt. Zach Randolph in particular because the Blazers NEED him to be a legit #2 option. From what I saw, he's not the same player he was 2 years ago. I believe with 2010 Randolph it's a no brainer but 2013 Randolph is not as big a threat. Plus I think he and Bogut clog each other up because neither should work out of the high post. That's what makes Marc Gasol so valuable. However, if the Grizzlies had a better bench they would have been a real threat in this postseason but as constructed both these teams are a dead heat. A healthy Rose would significantly outplay Rondo and that would be the decider in this series. Blazers in 7.

Guppyfighter
08-29-2013, 03:28 PM
Blazers and it's not really close

xxplayerxx23
08-29-2013, 05:32 PM
I find it really funny that you think it's not close. It is very close,

TrueFan420
08-29-2013, 08:57 PM
I find it really funny that you think it's not close. It is very close,

How is it close? The griz have zero bench. The don't have a go to scorer. Their whole offense depends on rondo setting everyone up and playing at an MVP level.

The blazers have rose the best player on either team. Zbo a solid second option even if he isn't the same as he was. Bogut to protect the rim. Crawford as a 6th man and then good role players and a good balanced bench.

TrueFan420
08-29-2013, 09:00 PM
To me you undress this matchup and a lot of it boils down how you feel about the frontcourt. Zach Randolph in particular because the Blazers NEED him to be a legit #2 option. From what I saw, he's not the same player he was 2 years ago. I believe with 2010 Randolph it's a no brainer but 2013 Randolph is not as big a threat. Plus I think he and Bogut clog each other up because neither should work out of the high post. That's what makes Marc Gasol so valuable. However, if the Grizzlies had a better bench they would have been a real threat in this postseason but as constructed both these teams are a dead heat. A healthy Rose would significantly outplay Rondo and that would be the decider in this series. Blazers in 7.

You talk about zbo as a if as a second but he'd be the first option on the griz. The question about zbo and Bogut is fair but Bogut is an a good passer. As far as the griz all they can do is rely on rondo to set the entire team up. Does he leave the court ever?

mightybosstone
08-29-2013, 09:43 PM
This is actually a really interesting matchup, because for weeks now I've been saying that I thought Memphis was a slightly better version of the Grizzlies, and the Grizzlies are basically a mirror version of themselves. However, I love Rose and Randolph against Rondo and Millsap. Even Rose at 80% of his current level of play would give Rondo major problems and put him in foul trouble, and I think Z-Bo would have his way with Millsap on the boards and on the block. Portland's deeper bench is just icing on the cake.

Both teams did a good job with their respective teams, but I just think Portland built a better team that matches up extremely well with Memphis. Also, I'm aware that the guy has been busy at work, but the lack of any write-up from a team with two GMs is pretty lame. I'm taking Portland in six.

PatsSoxKnicks
08-30-2013, 01:25 AM
PL, you don't have the time to put an argument together?

Bruno
08-30-2013, 01:48 PM
Portland. the starting line ups are competitive but the Portland bench might be the best bench ive seen in the redraft. The Memphis starting line up is built beautifully with a fantastic balance of distribution, floor spreading and post talent. They also have the most talented big man in the series in Marc Gasol. But Portland has the best player in the series in Rose, the better bench by a large margin and the size (Bogut, Randolph, Perkins, Humphries) to contain the Milsap/Gasol front line.

Portland.