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View Full Version : Pedroia and Red Sox have agreed in principle to 7 year extension



grandsalami
07-23-2013, 01:31 PM
https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/359726650096746496

“@bradfo: Pedroia and Red Sox have agreed in principle on extension. Starts in 2015 goes to '21. Comes down to approximatey 7 years for $100 million”

Nomar
07-23-2013, 01:34 PM
https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/359726650096746496

“@bradfo: Pedroia and Red Sox have agreed in principle on extension. Starts in 2015 goes to '21. Comes down to approximatey 7 years for $100 million”

I mean if he's horrible by then it won't be too bad because he should be worth $100 at the rate a win is worth now a days. If he can average 2.5 WAR over that span he's worth it. The rate money depreciates in baseball too is pretty high so $14M in those last 3 or 4 year won''t be considered very much. $14M per isnt much for a potential HOF. Still 2021 is a LONG TIME.

Station 13
07-23-2013, 01:39 PM
Not a lot of money, but 2 year too long.

RedSoxtober
07-23-2013, 01:39 PM
And in other news, Mookie Betts just became trade bait...

-Lavigne43-
07-23-2013, 01:45 PM
$14M a year? That's a HUGE win. Wow. Impossible for this to hurt us

Station 13
07-23-2013, 01:49 PM
I wonder how Boras will look asking more for Ellsbury from the Sox to keep him when the franchise player is making 14M/AVV.

Nomar
07-23-2013, 01:51 PM
And in other news, Mookie Betts just became trade bait...

Yeah and I'm not sure he ever has a better year than this year. Good time to deal him in all probability. Him and Iggy...

B'sCeltsPatsSox
07-23-2013, 01:52 PM
Win-Win for both.

JPBoston
07-23-2013, 02:08 PM
Good deal. Glad he'll be with the Sox long-term, with no nasty contract battles. $14m is exactly what I was hoping for, puts a lead-by-example guy in the upper-class of MLB contracts (or at least, in the same ball-park), without hamstringing the team.

Like everyone has said already ---- Win-Win.

AI
07-23-2013, 02:16 PM
Told you guys we'd all like the outcome of this. No way the Sox were going to sign him for $20M per this early. Knew it meant we'd be getting a good deal.

Green_Monster
07-23-2013, 02:36 PM
Very good deal. This is the type of guy you want as your franchise player.

Melo15
07-23-2013, 02:45 PM
I'm absolutely thrilled with this extension.

mooz
07-23-2013, 02:46 PM
Love love love love love this.

ManRam
07-23-2013, 02:47 PM
The length doesn't bother me much at all at that price.

:clap:

Celtic AL
07-23-2013, 02:50 PM
I Love it! Good for him!

RedSoxtober
07-23-2013, 02:54 PM
I wonder how Boras will look asking more for Ellsbury from the Sox to keep him when the franchise player is making 14M/AVV.
He's already handled that. His basic response was that it's improper to compare the value of a player signing an extension before he hits FA with a player on the open market because the first player has no market-based alternatives from which to ascertain fair value.


Yeah and I'm not sure he ever has a better year than this year. Good time to deal him in all probability. Him and Iggy...
Betts and Coyle. I don't think anyone is "fooled" enough by Iggy to buy high on him. There are plenty who'd put up with a .260/.300/.320 line to get his defense, though so I doubt anyone would overpay.


$14M a year? That's a HUGE win. Wow. Impossible for this to hurt us
I disagree that it's impossible for this to hurt us. By the middle of the deal (per reported length) he will hit the same point that Sandberg retired for the first time and the deal extends well beyond that. I could see him being a border-line UTL guy by the end of the deal based on the physical damage he does before we get there. However, by then he'll also have a cult following greater than Wake's that will demand he start over potentially more talented/productive players. The cost will hurt both in terms of overpayment by as much as 75% of the contract value AND limited production. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and the way he plays the game but I fear that he will not be ABLE to play that way 2-3yrs before we hit the end of the contract.

Nomar
07-23-2013, 03:03 PM
Betts and Coyle. I don't think anyone is "fooled" enough by Iggy to buy high on him. There are plenty who'd put up with a .260/.300/.320 line to get his defense, though so I doubt anyone would overpay.


Oh I agree no GM is that dumb, but he's a viable starter and he'll never have more control than he does now so now would be the time where he has the most value.

Lackeyfan41
07-23-2013, 03:19 PM
This is a good deal for both. We will see how it ends up at the back end of the contract though because 35-38 is old for a second baseman, especially someone who plays like pedroia.

Now I am just hoping Cano signs a 8 year 200 mil deal with the yankees :clap:

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 03:20 PM
$14 mill per season and replaces his 2015 team option......so he'll be 38 when the deal expires.

For context, Jeter is 39, making $17 million this year and will be making $17 million next year when he is 40. And he's not playing.

Hope Pedroia stays relatively healthy.

JPBoston
07-23-2013, 03:23 PM
He's already handled that. His basic response was that it's improper to compare the value of a player signing an extension before he hits FA with a player on the open market because the first player has no market-based alternatives from which to ascertain fair value.


Betts and Coyle. I don't think anyone is "fooled" enough by Iggy to buy high on him. There are plenty who'd put up with a .260/.300/.320 line to get his defense, though so I doubt anyone would overpay.


I disagree that it's impossible for this to hurt us. By the middle of the deal (per reported length) he will hit the same point that Sandberg retired for the first time and the deal extends well beyond that. I could see him being a border-line UTL guy by the end of the deal based on the physical damage he does before we get there. However, by then he'll also have a cult following greater than Wake's that will demand he start over potentially more talented/productive players. The cost will hurt both in terms of overpayment by as much as 75% of the contract value AND limited production. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and the way he plays the game but I fear that he will not be ABLE to play that way 2-3yrs before we hit the end of the contract.

I agree that it's not 'impossible' to hurt us... but the way the DH position is trending, he should have a safety spot to still contribute. It's not like the average DH is banging out 35hr's and 110 RBI every season now. Even if he's a super-utility at the end, taking time at 2B, 1B, and DH... there's gotta be a decent shot he can be a legit contributor at the end of the deal.

I'm glad they're taking a chance with Pedroia, makes much more sense than betting on a guy like Crawford/Ellsbury/Lackey/etc.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 03:23 PM
Yeah and I'm not sure he ever has a better year than this year. Good time to deal him in all probability. Him and Iggy...

I hope this is a joke. Trade Pedey? And trade Iggy now?

Nomar
07-23-2013, 03:27 PM
I hope this is a joke. Trade Pedey? And trade Iggy now?

If you read "him" would be Mookie Betts.

Green_Monster
07-23-2013, 03:27 PM
I hope this is a joke. Trade Pedey? And trade Iggy now?

If you look at the post he quoted, "him" is Mookie Betts.

Rivera
07-23-2013, 03:27 PM
what a steal

WhiteWesWelker
07-23-2013, 03:27 PM
I agree that it's not 'impossible' to hurt us... but the way the DH position is trending, he should have a safety spot to still contribute. It's not like the average DH is banging out 35hr's and 110 RBI every season now. Even if he's a super-utility at the end, taking time at 2B, 1B, and DH... there's gotta be a decent shot he can be a legit contributor at the end of the deal.

I'm glad they're taking a chance with Pedroia, makes much more sense than betting on a guy like Crawford/Ellsbury/Lackey/etc.

That'd be a quite a sight, a 5'7 first baseman!

redsoxknicks
07-23-2013, 03:28 PM
For so many reasons this is a great contract. Not many (outside of Pedroia) think he will continue at his usual performance until he is 37 years old. But I don't care. The guy is a rare find and is a bargain at this price, given professional salaries.

The only surprise is how they have worked on this during part of mid-season. Usually agents and or players say no mid-season distraction - it is either get it done by Spring Training or talk to me in the off-season. Good for all of them for being adult? focused? enough to handle such a large situation as this type of contract during the season.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 03:30 PM
If you read "him" would be Mookie Betts.

Sorry about that, but trade Iggy? Now? No.

Nomar
07-23-2013, 03:35 PM
Sorry about that, but trade Iggy? Now? No.

I think we should if Bogaerts/WMB is going to be ready soon. He just doesn't have a place here in the future. The best team we can put out in the future will have Bogaerts at SS and Cecchini at 3B. Iggy can be a league average SS, but not much more than that.

StryderSox
07-23-2013, 03:37 PM
Sorry about that, but trade Iggy? Now? No.

Thats right because clearly Iggy is currently showing his true ability and is not just having a great year where a lot of pitchers haven't seen him much to figure out his weaknesses. Same way Will Middlebrooks was going to hit 30+ homeruns annually because of a storng half season last year. How is that situation looking right now?

StryderSox
07-23-2013, 03:41 PM
I think we should if Bogaerts/WMB is going to be ready soon. He just doesn't have a place here in the future. The best team we can put out in the future will have Bogaerts at SS and Cecchini at 3B. Iggy can be a league average SS, but not much more than that.

I somewhat disagree here. I am not against moving Iggy if we can get someone to buy into the idea that he has reformed himself as a hitter and convince them to give us a good return. However if we arent going to get something decent in return I like the option of moving Bogaerts to 3B where a lot of scouts believe his body is better suited for and let Iglesias bat 9th and give us gold gold defense at SS.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 03:43 PM
I think we should if Bogaerts/WMB is going to be ready soon. He just doesn't have a place here in the future. The best team we can put out in the future will have Bogaerts at SS and Cecchini at 3B. Iggy can be a league average SS, but not much more than that.

I agree he won't have a spot eventually, but teams don't really trade their everyday players in the middle of a division/playoff race. And if we make the playoffs, his defense will be very valuable over the defense of WMB or Bogaerts.

And WMB isn;t exactly making a case to be called up soon, and while Bogaerts is, he still hasn't played a game in the MLB...we cannot bank on those 2 the rest of the season.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 03:45 PM
Thats right because clearly Iggy is currently showing his true ability and is not just having a great year where a lot of pitchers haven't seen him much to figure out his weaknesses. Same way Will Middlebrooks was going to hit 30+ homeruns annually because of a storng half season last year. How is that situation looking right now?

Maybe you should read my response to Nomar and not assume what I'm thinking next time. Because I don't believe any of that.

Nomar
07-23-2013, 03:52 PM
I somewhat disagree here. I am not against moving Iggy if we can get someone to buy into the idea that he has reformed himself as a hitter and convince them to give us a good return. However if we arent going to get something decent in return I like the option of moving Bogaerts to 3B where a lot of scouts believe his body is better suited for and let Iglesias bat 9th and give us gold gold defense at SS.

Still the best team you can put out there would have Bogaerts at SS, Cecchini at 3B, and a solid LF. That would be a lot more valuable than Iggy at SS, Bogaerts at 3B before he fills out and needs to move, and Cecchini in LF. That's a fact.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 03:54 PM
Still the best team you can put out there would have Bogaerts at SS, Cecchini at 3B, and a solid LF. That would be a lot more valuable than Iggy at SS, Bogaerts at 3B before he fills out and needs to move, and Cecchini in LF. That's a fact.

Cecchini isn't ready this season, Bogaerts hasn't played a game yet.

Maybe trade Iggy next season or after next but not now.

StryderSox
07-23-2013, 03:59 PM
Maybe you should read my response to Nomar and not assume what I'm thinking next time. Because I don't believe any of that.

Which one would that be..... the one were you misread his post and thought he wanted to trade Pedroia or the one where you made the compelling arguement of "but trade Iggy? Now? No"?

If you are referring to your response above that was posted after the post you just quoted so I appologize for not being clairvoyant enough to predict your next post.

StryderSox
07-23-2013, 04:01 PM
Still the best team you can put out there would have Bogaerts at SS, Cecchini at 3B, and a solid LF. That would be a lot more valuable than Iggy at SS, Bogaerts at 3B before he fills out and needs to move, and Cecchini in LF. That's a fact.

Are we talking about right now or in the next few years?

Nomar
07-23-2013, 04:02 PM
Are we talking about right now or in the next few years?

Oh going forward not in the present.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 04:22 PM
Which one would that be..... the one were you misread his post and thought he wanted to trade Pedroia or the one where you made the compelling arguement of "but trade Iggy? Now? No"?

If you are referring to your response above that was posted after the post you just quoted so I appologize for not being clairvoyant enough to predict your next post.

Cut the sarcastic and condescending crap. You assumed what I was thinking about Iggy and what I thought about Middlebrooks (neither were true), and then attempted to use your false assumption to degrade me.

And I made my argument later on to Nomar. Your error sir, not mine.

And I told you to read my response to Nomar where I explain my stance, and that was BEFORE I responded to you.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 04:27 PM
Which one would that be..... the one were you misread his post and thought he wanted to trade Pedroia or the one where you made the compelling arguement of "but trade Iggy? Now? No"?

Oh, and it would be this post I told you to read, which was posted before I responded to you:

"I agree he won't have a spot eventually, but teams don't really trade their everyday players in the middle of a division/playoff race. And if we make the playoffs, his defense will be very valuable over the defense of WMB or Bogaerts.

And WMB isn;t exactly making a case to be called up soon, and while Bogaerts is, he still hasn't played a game in the MLB...we cannot bank on those 2 the rest of the season."

StryderSox
07-23-2013, 04:30 PM
Oh going forward not in the present.

I am still not sold on Cecchini. He has hit well the past 2 years but I guess I am just reserving judgement on his potential as a long term member of the organization until I can see him hit at the higher levels.

StryderSox
07-23-2013, 04:46 PM
Oh, and it would be this post I told you to read, which was posted before I responded to you:

"I agree he won't have a spot eventually, but teams don't really trade their everyday players in the middle of a division/playoff race. And if we make the playoffs, his defense will be very valuable over the defense of WMB or Bogaerts.

And WMB isn;t exactly making a case to be called up soon, and while Bogaerts is, he still hasn't played a game in the MLB...we cannot bank on those 2 the rest of the season."

Yes posted before you responded to me but after I made the intial posting so again I appologize for not being able to read your post where you explained your stance before it was posted. My initial response was your one liner that insinuated it would be silly to trade Iglesias at this point with no explanation for taking that position.

I also never assumed anything about your thoughts on Will Middlebrooks. I was just comparing your position of it being ridiculous to entertain the idea of trading Iglesias to the same position that numerous people took on Will Middlebrooks last year simply because he hit well for a couple months.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 04:52 PM
Yes posted before you responded to me but after I made the intial posting so again I appologize for not being able to read your post where you explained your stance before it was posted. My initial response was your one liner that insinuated it would be silly to trade Iglesias at this point with no explanation for taking that position.

I also never assumed anything about your thoughts on Will Middlebrooks. I was just comparing your position of it being ridiculous to entertain the idea of trading Iglesias to the same position that numerous people took on Will Middlebrooks last year simply because he hit well for a couple months.

You said "how's that working out?" Seems like you were insinuating that I thought that.

And again, I never put so that you should have been able to know what I was going to say before I did. I said in my initial repsonse to you not to assume my position or opinion about anything, just as you did with Iglesias. And I later posted explaining my position finally and told you to read it, which you apparently did not until just before you posted this.

JPBoston
07-23-2013, 05:10 PM
That'd be a quite a sight, a 5'7 first baseman!

Haha -- good point. Maybe not 1B. ;)

Bo Sox Fan
07-23-2013, 05:15 PM
This is an absolute steal. Pedroia has been getting vastly underpaid the last few years for his production if you ask me so in the end it works out great for both the Red Sox and the player, almost more for the team when you look at the big picture.

As good as A-Gon was, this deal blows his extension out of the water as far as the bang for the buck in production. $14 mil/per vs $22.5 mil/per each over 7 years.

BostonSports96
07-23-2013, 05:31 PM
This is an absolute steal. Pedroia has been getting vastly underpaid the last few years for his production if you ask me so in the end it works out great for both the Red Sox and the player, almost more for the team when you look at the big picture.

As good as A-Gon was, this deal blows his extension out of the water as far as the bang for the buck in production. $14 mil/per vs $22.5 mil/per each over 7 years.

And compared to the Josh Hamilton/A-Rod/Vernon Wells deals, it looks 10x better!

ciaban
07-23-2013, 06:23 PM
I wonder how Boras will look asking more for Ellsbury from the Sox to keep him when the franchise player is making 14M/AVV.

he will look like he always does, rich and succesful.

NY_St8_Of_Mind
07-23-2013, 07:32 PM
I was very happy to see the Red Sox lock up Pedroia until 2021. Behind Ortiz, this guy is their franchise player. He's a mentor to the younger players and comes to play every day. A great talent and truly the captain of the team. Is he the captain or was that title removed after Varitek retired?

-Lavigne43-
07-23-2013, 09:02 PM
I disagree that it's impossible for this to hurt us. By the middle of the deal (per reported length) he will hit the same point that Sandberg retired for the first time and the deal extends well beyond that. I could see him being a border-line UTL guy by the end of the deal based on the physical damage he does before we get there. However, by then he'll also have a cult following greater than Wake's that will demand he start over potentially more talented/productive players. The cost will hurt both in terms of overpayment by as much as 75% of the contract value AND limited production. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and the way he plays the game but I fear that he will not be ABLE to play that way 2-3yrs before we hit the end of the contract.

If the worst happens $14M is not going to kill us at all financially at the end of the deal. He's going to be making below major league average salary at the back-end of the contract. This is very team friendly, I'm surprised he didn't sign for more. It would be awesome if it was front loaded too since no big time free agent is worth spending on in the immediate future.

Nomar
07-23-2013, 09:24 PM
If the worst happens $14M is not going to kill us at all financially at the end of the deal. He's going to be making below major league average salary at the back-end of the contract. This is very team friendly, I'm surprised he didn't sign for more. It would be awesome if it was front loaded too since no big time free agent is worth spending on in the immediate future.
agreed

bagwell368
07-23-2013, 11:53 PM
$14M a year? That's a HUGE win. Wow. Impossible for this to hurt us

I think you'll have the answer sometime during the last 2-3 years of this deal.

Vincent33
07-24-2013, 06:37 AM
Win win for both sides. Boston locks up the face of the franchise at a decent price before Cano hits the FA market that would've driven up the price albeit not at the level he'll command, but likely higher than the $14M Boston got him for and Pedroia is now on the path to finish his career as a Red Sox.

I'm really glad they got a deal done and that he'll be here longterm.

RedSoxtober
07-24-2013, 08:48 AM
Still the best team you can put out there would have Bogaerts at SS, Cecchini at 3B, and a solid LF. That would be a lot more valuable than Iggy at SS, Bogaerts at 3B before he fills out and needs to move, and Cecchini in LF. That's a fact.

That's not a fact; that's an opinion. Assuming that Iglesias can hit .260/.300/.320 or so then I believe that Iglesias at SS, Cecchini at 3B, and Bogaerts in LF would be better than the configurations you've suggested. The wear and tear at 3B tends to downgrade performance both within a season AND longterm (few 3B are productive at the plate into their middle or late 30s). Hell, even Wade Boggs dropped off pretty dramatically after age 31. Why put your most promising power hitting player into that position? The defensive abilities of Cecchini vs Bogaerts are not that great and whatever they are could be partly compensated for by Iglesias' range. Lessen the load on Bogaerts, increase the long term productivity.

Nomar
07-24-2013, 08:51 AM
That's not a fact; that's an opinion.
Lol was hoping to get away with that one.


Assuming that Iglesias can hit .260/.300/.320 or so then I believe that Iglesias at SS, Cecchini at 3B, and Bogaerts in LF would be better than the configurations you've suggested. The wear and tear at 3B tends to downgrade performance both within a season AND longterm (few 3B are productive at the plate into their middle or late 30s). Hell, even Wade Boggs dropped off pretty dramatically after age 31. Why put your most promising power hitting player into that position? The defensive abilities of Cecchini vs Bogaerts are not that great and whatever they are could be partly compensated for by Iglesias' range. Lessen the load on Bogaerts, increase the long term productivity.

In my scenario Bogaerts is at SS until he moves off to LF. Where are you getting anything about Bogaerts at 3rd?

RedSoxtober
07-24-2013, 09:05 AM
In my scenario Bogaerts is at SS until he moves off to LF. Where are you getting anything about Bogaerts at 3rd?

My mistake. To that I'd suggest that defensive runs saved from Iglesias would somewhat neutralize the offensive advantage of Bogaerts there (considering that XB bat is still in the lineup). With the exception of Brentz the Sox don't really have any power hitting OFers that offer a net upgrade in production (weighing in Rdrs) over the JI/GC/XB configuration.

Nomar
07-24-2013, 09:30 AM
My mistake. To that I'd suggest that defensive runs saved from Iglesias would somewhat neutralize the offensive advantage of Bogaerts there (considering that XB bat is still in the lineup). With the exception of Brentz the Sox don't really have any power hitting OFers that offer a net upgrade in production (weighing in Rdrs) over the JI/GC/XB configuration.

Yeah if that guy would be Brentz I'd agree with you. I was talking more along the line of a LF coming from outside the farm. Like for example we could sign Beltran to a 2 year deal, stick him in left where we won't have to worry about him running around too much.

RedSoxtober
07-24-2013, 10:02 AM
Unfortunately there are not too many FA OFers that have potential for big impact AND lack question marks. Beltran will be playing his ages 37, 38 seasons on that deal. Can he keep it up?

The most likely path either is to re-sign Ellsbury (with JBJ coming to play CF and Ellsbury to LF) or replace Ellsbury as a departed FA with JBJ and let Nava/Gomes platoon another year. None of those really represent that much of a net upgrade over what I suggested.

AI
07-24-2013, 02:43 PM
OFFICIAL: #RedSox signed All-Star 2B Dustin Pedroia to an 8-year contract beginning in 2014 and continuing through the 2021 season.

Make it 8 years, starts next year.

grandsalami
07-24-2013, 02:51 PM
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/360108391672193024

“@alexspeier: Pedroia deal: $1M bonus, 2014-15 $12.5M, 2016 $13M, 2017 $15M, 2018 $16M, 2019 $15M, 2020 $13M, 2021 $12M so $110M over 8 yrs; some $ defer”

AI
07-24-2013, 02:52 PM
Here's the year to year breakdown...


Pedroia deal: $1M bonus, 2014-15 $12.5M, 2016 $13M, 2017 $15M, 2018 $16M, 2019 $15M, 2020 $13M, 2021 $12M so $110M over 8 yrs; #RedSox

grandsalami
07-24-2013, 03:45 PM
“@TimBritton: Source: Pedroia's salary will decrease in the final years of the deal. Didn't want to be an albatross to the team.”

Nomar
07-24-2013, 04:43 PM
@TimBritton: Source: Pedroia's salary will decrease in the final years of the deal. Didn't want to be an albatross to the team.

hes the ****ing man

TragicallyHip
07-25-2013, 08:12 AM
Team player. One of the greats.

RedSoxtober
07-25-2013, 02:11 PM
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/360108391672193024

“@alexspeier: Pedroia deal: $1M bonus, 2014-15 $12.5M, 2016 $13M, 2017 $15M, 2018 $16M, 2019 $15M, 2020 $13M, 2021 $12M so $110M over 8 yrs; some $ defer”
Also significant: deferred money counts less against lux tax.


“@TimBritton: Source: Pedroia's salary will decrease in the final years of the deal. Didn't want to be an albatross to the team.”

That's freakin' awesome. Now that the details are out I'm much more on board with this.

AI
07-25-2013, 02:48 PM
Speier does it again.

http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/07/25/team-player-dustin-pedroia-contract-represente

Pedroia
07-25-2013, 04:50 PM
The awesomeness that is Dustin Pedroia never ceases to amaze me.

mooz
07-26-2013, 08:50 AM
The awesomeness that is Dustin Pedroia never ceases to amaze me.

I think it's kind of conceited to talk about yourself like this. We'll look past this though since you're such a selfless player typically. Haha

todu82
07-26-2013, 12:19 PM
Good to see this. Pedroia's one of our, if not our, best all around player.

JPBoston
07-26-2013, 02:35 PM
Speier does it again.

http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/07/25/team-player-dustin-pedroia-contract-represente

Wow --- I appreciate that Pedey didn't attempt to single-highhandedly bankrupt the organization, it's obviously a great win for everyone involved. But I think that piece is laying it on a bit thick. The guy got $100m+, let's not go too crazy thanking him for his 'sacrifice'.

*gets pummeled with rocks*

Pittz
07-26-2013, 02:54 PM
This is coming at a good time to distract people from Pedroia's sub-.600 OPS this month.

bagwell368
07-27-2013, 08:54 PM
OK, now that the self congratulation is dying off, years 6 and 7, if not 5 may work out in merchandise sales and in the clubhouse - but on the field this deal will fall on its face in these last 2 or 3 years.

Why? His fielding which is excellent now, won't be then. His power which is good for a plucky midget 2B (very good), is bound to ebb - meaning he'll be unusable at DH - or anywhere else. That very hard swing of his is going to find more misses as he ages too. The way he plays the game which is as hard as anybody in Boston in my 45 years is going to be like velcro for injuries.

I know Ortiz isn't long for Boston and the Sox want to tie up a guy that plays the game right, and is a "face", etc. but in rational terms this deal is not rational.

sawxfan
07-27-2013, 11:31 PM
OK, now that the self congratulation is dying off, years 6 and 7, if not 5 may work out in merchandise sales and in the clubhouse - but on the field this deal will fall on its face in these last 2 or 3 years.

Why? His fielding which is excellent now, won't be then. His power which is good for a plucky midget 2B (very good), is bound to ebb - meaning he'll be unusable at DH - or anywhere else. That very hard swing of his is going to find more misses as he ages too. The way he plays the game which is as hard as anybody in Boston in my 45 years is going to be like velcro for injuries.

I know Ortiz isn't long for Boston and the Sox want to tie up a guy that plays the game right, and is a "face", etc. but in rational terms this deal is not rational.

So, look at it as 100mill over five years to be paid out over 7. They don't have to play him the last two years, they just have to pay him spread out over those 7 years..

bagwell368
07-27-2013, 11:37 PM
So, look at it as 100mill over five years to be paid out over 7. They don't have to play him the last two years, they just have to pay him spread out over those 7 years..

He's not going to be worth $100M the next 5 years on the field, and we had him signed the next couple as well.

Nomar
07-28-2013, 09:43 AM
He's not going to be worth $100M the next 5 years on the field, and we had him signed the next couple as well.

You cant say that definitively. He could pull out another 7 WAR season next year or something which is worth like $40M today. Then he probably would be worth it.

bagwell368
07-28-2013, 08:58 PM
You cant say that definitively. He could pull out another 7 WAR season next year or something which is worth like $40M today. Then he probably would be worth it.

I just did. He's not going to do it. He might for a year, but not on average. His fielding will drop, so will his base running. His OPS+ in order are 131, 127, 123, 114, 113, 112, 110. I don't see a 7.9 rWAR player on average the next 5 years. I see a 3.3-4.2 - and yes I'm factoring in some injuries as well.

Nomar
07-28-2013, 09:10 PM
I just did. He's not going to do it. He might for a year, but not on average. His fielding will drop, so will his base running. His OPS+ in order are 131, 127, 123, 114, 113, 112, 110. I don't see a 7.9 rWAR player on average the next 5 years. I see a 3.3-4.2 - and yes I'm factoring in some injuries as well.

All it takes is one BABIP driven anomaly season and he could have one monster year that makes the cumulative value a bit higher though. You can't simply rule it out just because of trends. Ages 30-32 can bring a multitude of results for him.

-Lavigne43-
07-28-2013, 09:31 PM
If he averages just 3 WAR over the 7 years he will be well over the total contract in WAR$, especially since the value of 1 win will rise every year.

bagwell368
07-28-2013, 09:56 PM
All it takes is one BABIP driven anomaly season and he could have one monster year that makes the cumulative value a bit higher though. You can't simply rule it out just because of trends. Ages 30-32 can bring a multitude of results for him.

Great, so it's a good deal if he has one $40M year, and all the other years are under $20M, some by a lot.

You have to factor the way he plays the game and yes the drop in speed on the bases and the leather that's coming.

You're happy with the deal. Great. I don't hate it, but it's not ideal either IMO.

bagwell368
07-28-2013, 09:59 PM
If he averages just 3 WAR over the 7 years he will be well over the total contract in WAR$, especially since the value of 1 win will rise every year.

I was talking a range of WAR over the first 5 years, I have zero confidence that he'll be over 3 WAR in years 6 or 7. I'm more confident he'll be retired or be a drag on the 25 man roster. The line I've been talking on since a poster mentioned it is $100M for the first 5 years.

RedSoxtober
07-29-2013, 10:48 AM
You're happy with the deal. Great. I don't hate it, but it's not ideal either IMO.

You've at least got to like the way it's structured -- with salary hitting a peak in year 3 and then declining as the contract lengthens. To my knowledge that is the first contract that does that.* You've advocated that kind of deal fairly often.

*A-Rod's does to an extent but I think his deal is predicated more on paying him a ton in the seasons that it was presumed that he would take the career home run crown (ahem) cleanly.

bagwell368
07-29-2013, 11:14 AM
You've at least got to like the way it's structured -- with salary hitting a peak in year 3 and then declining as the contract lengthens. To my knowledge that is the first contract that does that.* You've advocated that kind of deal fairly often.

*A-Rod's does to an extent but I think his deal is predicated more on paying him a ton in the seasons that it was presumed that he would take the career home run crown (ahem) cleanly.

Yes. Given some of the idiot contracts handed out over say the last 3 years (MLB wide), this one is well above average at the high end. I still would have liked a BRS buy-out in years 6 and 7 because if he's really dragging it down, it's hard to decapitate a Captain (in name or virtual) or have him hurt the roster as a part timer or starter that's lost it.

-Lavigne43-
07-29-2013, 11:55 AM
Just noticed this now. $WAR has Pedroia at $143.8M for his career. That's already more than we will pay him for his entire career.

RedSoxtober
07-29-2013, 12:30 PM
Yes. Given some of the idiot contracts handed out over say the last 3 years (MLB wide), this one is well above average at the high end. I still would have liked a BRS buy-out in years 6 and 7 because if he's really dragging it down, it's hard to decapitate a Captain (in name or virtual) or have him hurt the roster as a part timer or starter that's lost it.

That was also my critique when the rumors started swirling. He justifiably has a bigger cult following than Wake and it can be very difficult to go against that. The ability to hurt the team can come in many ways and money is only one. Displacing a more qualified player on the basis of gravitas is one

Nomar
07-29-2013, 12:56 PM
That was also my critique when the rumors started swirling. He justifiably has a bigger cult following than Wake and it can be very difficult to go against that. The ability to hurt the team can come in many ways and money is only one. Displacing a more qualified player on the basis of gravitas is one

Agreed. Tough to see him ever accepting moving over for a prospect or something along those lines.

bagwell368
07-29-2013, 04:38 PM
Just noticed this now. $WAR has Pedroia at $143.8M for his career. That's already more than we will pay him for his entire career.

Good for the Sox, does that mean the Sox have to try and EQ the money by overpaying Pedroia? Does that mean guys who get paid too much owe the Sox money?