View Full Version : The relationship between a team's turnovers and winning percentage

07-13-2013, 03:07 PM

Can someone explain these results? I see no correlation hahaa.

07-13-2013, 03:16 PM
Not calculating # of possessions into the equation?

07-13-2013, 03:36 PM
Not calculating # of possessions into the equation?

It's turnovers/possession.

Turnovers matter. According to Oliver's Four Factors (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html), which I think is a solid jumping off point in terms of looking at why and how an offense (or defense) is effective or not, he weighs TOV% at 25%. The other 3 factors are shooting (eFG%), rebounding (ORB%) and free throws (FT/FGA). They're weighted 40%, 20% and 15% respectively.

Houston is the most turnover prone team, but they make up for it in eFG% (5th) and FT/FTA (4th) leading to the league's 6th best offense.

The 76ers conversely turn it over the second least, but they had the league's 5th worst offense because they were 21st in eFG%, 24th in ORB% and dead last in FT/FGA.

It's certainly a part of the equation, perhaps a big one, but you're not gonna see much of a correlation on it's own. Those other factors (and obviously it's far more complex than just narrowing it down to 4 things) play too much of a role. It's only looking at a fraction of the picture.

07-13-2013, 03:49 PM
Maybe because its just one factor among many.