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View Full Version : Fact of the day: Ells passes Pedroia in fWAR



Nomar
07-12-2013, 10:44 AM
Ellsbury got his OPS over .800 and is now #1 in fWAR for Boston, barely edging out Pedroia. Obviously WAR isn't an end-all, be-all stat but this is still impressive.

If Ells finds his power stroke and ends up with 15 HRs, things could get really interesting. I'm against extending him, but if he's that good he's worth more than the compensation pick. That's getting ahead of everything, but it could be the case later in the year.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 11:35 AM
Ellsbury got his OPS over .800 and is now #1 in fWAR for Boston, barely edging out Pedroia. Obviously WAR isn't an end-all, be-all stat but this is still impressive.

If Ells finds his power stroke and ends up with 15 HRs, things could get really interesting. I'm against extending him, but if he's that good he's worth more than the compensation pick. That's getting ahead of everything, but it could be the case later in the year.

Another example of why I use rWAR, which IMO has Pedroia correctly ahead of Ellsbury 4.4 > 3.5.

DP slash: .316/.396/.437 (419 PA) - 125 OPS+ wOBA .365
JE slash: .308/.372/.429 (406 PA) - 116 OPS+ wOBA .349

2B is a more important defensive position, and according to BR AND FG and my eye DP has played his position better than JE has played his.

JE has come back from a weak start, and is now a top player for them, but he has not exceeded Pedroia to date this year.


As far as keeping Ellsbury, you can't say Ellsbury is worth more than a pick w/o considering the money he will cost. It's more like how much better will JE be than JBJ the next 4 years - and then how many other holes can we fill with the money JE won't be getting if he's gone? That's the comparison.

If JBJ is the future, than we have the same logical problem we had with Ells and CC on the team. It's really hard to build a strong line-up with 2 OF'ers that can only be expected to average 25 HR's between the two over the next few years. Let's review the near term future:

DH (Ortiz is amazing (and yeah, I was wrong) but he's not going to be here in 2-3 years)
1B (god knows what we have then)
3B - XB?
LF - better be a stud to make up for CF/RF
2B - Pedroia probably in his decline in 2-3 years
SS - a good hitter perhaps, but not with SLG%
C - ?

The cash outlay, the injury risk, and the line-up problems all seem to point away from it.

Nomar
07-12-2013, 12:01 PM
fWAR goes awry with the fielding and really doesn't take a good shape until late in the season.

I like rWAR more as well bags, but obviously bref doesn't have as good of a setup in terms of accessibility as Fangraphs does.

I mean JBJ obviously needs to adjust but he has at least equal power to Ellsbury. He looks like a solid bet for 15 HRs to me at least. I'm an optimist, but i think JBJs bat has a higher ceiling than most people seem to beleive. His makeup will help his tools play up as well.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 01:41 PM
fWAR goes awry with the fielding and really doesn't take a good shape until late in the season.

When I started looking it up to respond I expected to see something like 25 UZR/150, but it's 7, and Pedroia has 11 I believe; so with a few more PA's, a notably higher OBP, slightly higher SLG, and a better wOBA, I don't get fWAR's total number.


I like rWAR more as well bags, but obviously bref doesn't have as good of a setup in terms of accessibility as Fangraphs does.

Umm, not quite sure what you mean, both of them can be entered with the player name directly from the web, and all you need to do is traverse the player page to see the WAR number.


I mean JBJ obviously needs to adjust but he has at least equal power to Ellsbury. He looks like a solid bet for 15 HRs to me at least. I'm an optimist, but i think JBJs bat has a higher ceiling than most people seem to beleive. His makeup will help his tools play up as well.

I think JBJ has possible 20 HR power, but, I also see his BA being lower then Ells. Ells in a 145 game season is good for about 12 HR's. Either way these are not .370/550 hitters, and our next DH is liable to be less effective than Ortiz.

I find this team fun to watch, but with so many AAAA/inexperienced hitters, I'm afraid the runs scored parade will dry up in the playoffs against a top staff. That why I'd like two high quality hitting OF's in the future.

-Lavigne43-
07-12-2013, 04:22 PM
His baserunning stat gives him bump in fWAR. Hes stealing bases at a ridiculously efficient rate, I'm sure that will fall off.

Nomar
07-12-2013, 05:33 PM
I meant you can't view the entire league as a list of players like you can on fangraphs.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 07:25 PM
I meant you can't view the entire league as a list of players like you can on fangraphs.

Sure you can. You go to year, AL or NL or both, select "hitting" or "fielding" or "pitching" and sub select "advanced" or "value" or whatever you like.

See here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013-value-batting.shtml

columns are sortable.

Nomar
07-12-2013, 07:30 PM
Sure you can. You go to year, AL or NL or both, select "hitting" or "fielding" or "pitching" and sub select "advanced" or "value" or whatever you like.

See here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2013-value-batting.shtml

columns are sortable.

****. How did i not notice that? Thanks.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 07:35 PM
His baserunning stat gives him bump in fWAR. Hes stealing bases at a ridiculously efficient rate, I'm sure that will fall off.

Ellsbury is one of the most efficient base stealers in the game. Essentially 36/3 means about +28.5 bases (be ~ +30 in a bad hitters park). Pedroia is 13/4 - so he's about a +1. Given all of Pedroia advantages in all other ways, it's hard to believe Ells could be 3.6 > 3.5 in one system (DP is 97% as valuable in fWAR) but 4.4 > 3.5 in rWAR (Pedroia 126% more valuable) just off of this one difference.

Either FG is over reporting the value, or BR is under reporting the value. I know there are other factors involved that are different too - so I'll have to check those (haven't looked at the guts of either formula in some time).

My subjective sense is that Pedroia > Ellsbury. We'll see.

boodgyman5220
07-13-2013, 02:46 AM
can i just say that i love pedroia as our number 3 hitter. If we can find someone more consistent as napoli at the 5 next year then this will be an awesome team to watch!

bagwell368
07-14-2013, 05:46 AM
can i just say that i love pedroia as our number 3 hitter. If we can find someone more consistent as napoli at the 5 next year then this will be an awesome team to watch!

You are counting on Nava, Carp, Iggy, catchers, Ortiz, Ells or replacement ALL to be as productive as this year too date? I wouldn't count on that.

Station 13
07-14-2013, 11:39 AM
****. How did i not notice that? Thanks.

BR layout and is design is ****. I can't find anything on it.

bagwell368
07-14-2013, 12:03 PM
BR layout and is design is ****. I can't find anything on it.

Well, it's there, and for historical data (meaning yesterday and before) even FG addicts such as Jeffy admit BR is more accurate than FG. I would say it's a matter of repeated use, like many things.

bagwell368
07-26-2013, 04:51 PM
This is the closest thread I could find here for this:

TOPPS to put WAR on the back of its baseball cards:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/26/topps-to-have-war-on-the-back-of-cards-soon/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

For the few "batting average" is what counts crew - time to get with the times!

RedSoxtober
07-27-2013, 06:48 PM
^^ That's pretty big for the flagship of old school stats.

todu82
07-28-2013, 03:21 PM
Good for Ellsbury. What happens with him in the off-season and if we keep him or not is going to be interesting to see.