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-Lavigne43-
07-09-2013, 01:16 AM
Before the season it seemed like a no-brainer that it would be picked up, but so far this year he's basically pitching the same as last year. This year he has a slightly better K rate, slightly worse BB rate, once again his velocity is slightly down from last year. His era isn't as bad, but it gets closer with every start. His FIP seems to think hes allowing more runs then he should, 4.11 last year and 4.12 this year, but a low 4 era isn't exactly what you wanted from him.

He has a $13M option next year. Since the beginning of last year he has been a below average pitcher, and nothing I see gives me hope that he will improve and return to being the Lester of old. If the season ended today I'm not sure what the Red Sox would do. $13M might be worth gambling on him rebounding, but is it worth it when our rotation next year consists of:

1: Lackey, who's pitching like he did for the Angels, his surgery looks like it turned back the clock
2: Buchholz, injured every year, but has put it all together this year, he's under team control until 2017
3: Dempster, has been a very solid innings eater, just what we wanted. FIP says his era is way better than his era, probably because all of the homeruns.
4. Doubront, has pitched very good since the start of June, young and cheap.

We have a slew of pitchers who could potentially take a spot next year: Webster and Rubby would be the front runners, with Ranaudo, Workman, and Barnes all possible at some point.

Names that stand out in free agency are: Floyd, Garza, Halladay, Haren, Hudson, Hughes, Johnson, Kuroda, Lincecum, Maholm, Nolasco. Nothing too appealing, which is funny since this free agency looked great just a couple years ago. What are the odds we get more value out of one of these free agent pitchers then Lester at $13M?

Trading him voids his 2014 option, so why would a team trade anything of good value for a mediocre rental? The best hope is that he turns it around and this thread looks silly in a couple months. I am really starting to wonder if this is the last we see of Lester in a Red Sox uniform though. Even if he turns it around and ends up having a good year and we pick up the option, he would be turning 31 at the start of his next contract. At that age with his overall decline how can you offer him a 4+ year contract?

Lackeyfan41
07-09-2013, 02:09 AM
At this point it is to early to say.

But if his ERA sticks around 4.5 it would be hard to justify picking the option up.
I would like to see them pick it up, and then flip him for a little something. Honestly, I am sick of Lester.

Would love to find a taker for Dempster too, and then offer to take Cliff Lee's contract off the Phils hands. I think this team is an ace like cliff and a healthy Buch to being very good.

But anyway, I am holding out on Lester putting it together and making the option a no brainier again.

win red sox
07-09-2013, 02:12 AM
I think for his option to be voided 1) has to traded 2) has to finish in the top 2 for cy young voting. But if Ben can get value, you have to move him. I wonder if some kind package headlined by lester would be enough to grab Santana and Holland.

Lackeyfan41
07-09-2013, 02:15 AM
I think for his option to be voided 1) has to traded 2) has to finish in the top 2 for cy young voting. But if Ben can get value, you have to move him. I wonder if some kind package headlined by lester would be enough to grab Santana and Holland.
Not at this point. Pretty sure the Royals wouldn't touch Lester as a rental, and he has sucked. Santana is a guy who has out preformed Lester, and the Royals probably have a higher chance at resigning. Holland is a stud BP arm. Can't see it happening

-Lavigne43-
07-09-2013, 02:30 AM
His trade value has to be close to nonexistent right now. Half a season of a guy that has pitched below league average is not a hot commodity. This is a similar case to Haren. Haren had a low 4 era last year while pitching hurt, and was an elite pitcher from 2007-2011. The Angels didn't exercise his option, actually using a pricey buyout. He could only get a 1 year deal, and has been terrible this year, giving up homers like crazy.

bagwell368
07-09-2013, 07:40 AM
Lester's problems are simple IMO to see:

1. He's way too emotional when he gets a bad call.
2. He gets squeezed a **** load because he's too emotional and the umps are punishing him

But you could see this in his first year. He had what 4 really good years in a row, but, his velocity regressed in 2011-12 and the problems just got amped up.

He's a lefty, he's healthy, he's at $8.7 FG WAR already. Potential still oozes out of him. The Sox aren't cash strapped, he's back next year. Now, he could get dealt at the deadline next year. If we are flush with SP and in it, or out of it, and the price is right, and it's determined that he simply isn't worth it in the long run - go do it.

Given the state the Sox are in, any talk of dealing him now or at the deadline is a tacit admission that this team is going nowhere. Won't happen. And his value is far from non existant. Stick him in a big park in the NL and watch out.

mooz
07-09-2013, 08:17 AM
I agree with what most said. Trading him at the deadline is not an option (unless you get blown away with an offer), let's see how he finishes the season out and go from there. If he finishes out the season the way he's currently pitching, I can't imagine declining his option will upset fans more than the possibility of a De La Rosa or Webster's potential will appeal to fans. At $13 mil and at the current state of this team, I believe that will be what this decision hinges on: fan perception. If the Sox can get away with cutting Lester loose and moving on to one of their future arms, I would imagine they will. Again, this assumes he finishes the year the way he's started it.

I'm also glad Bags brought up Lester's emotions on the mound. That is one thing that really gets to me with Lester, during his starts I'm always either thinking or flat out yelling at the TV "just make the pitch!" If he hasn't learned by now that umps have egos, then he'll never improve. Showing up an umpire on the mound or in the batter's box never works out in your favor. How many times do you see a batter quickly turn away in disgust with a call then see the next borderline call go against him? Almost every time it happens.

RedSoxtober
07-09-2013, 10:08 AM
I think Lester still has great potential... but quite possibly not in BOS. I'm believe that he took the 9/11 collapse very personally (thanks to the chicken-and-beer thing) and has not been the same since. He vowed to lead the way last year and failed miserably. I could see that stemming from trying too hard to make a difference. 2013 has been all about correcting 2012 because he now "has something to prove." The results are similar -- half his month ERAs are good and half are well below average. Very few, however, approach the pitcher we saw before the collapse.

If he could find a landing spot where he could be a dominant #2 in a lower pressure environment he might thrive again. I don't think it'll happen in BOS.


Trading him voids his 2014 option, so why would a team trade anything of good value for a mediocre rental? The best hope is that he turns it around and this thread looks silly in a couple months. I am really starting to wonder if this is the last we see of Lester in a Red Sox uniform though. Even if he turns it around and ends up having a good year and we pick up the option, he would be turning 31 at the start of his next contract. At that age with his overall decline how can you offer him a 4+ year contract?
WRS is correct -- a trade will NOT void his option. He has to be traded AND finish in the top 2 of CY voting during the guaranteed years of his contract. The closest he finished was #4 and it doesn't look like he makes it this year. Given that there's ~16M/1.5yrs left I might explore some options depending on the direction the team takes over the next three weeks.

That said, if he's with the team on Sep 1 then I think he's with the team in 2014. I'm not sure that it's the right decision but I think it's the most likely.

-Lavigne43-
07-09-2013, 12:10 PM
Lester's problems are simple IMO to see:

1. He's way too emotional when he gets a bad call.
2. He gets squeezed a **** load because he's too emotional and the umps are punishing him

But you could see this in his first year. He had what 4 really good years in a row, but, his velocity regressed in 2011-12 and the problems just got amped up.

He's a lefty, he's healthy, he's at $8.7 FG WAR already. Potential still oozes out of him. The Sox aren't cash strapped, he's back next year. Now, he could get dealt at the deadline next year. If we are flush with SP and in it, or out of it, and the price is right, and it's determined that he simply isn't worth it in the long run - go do it.

Given the state the Sox are in, any talk of dealing him now or at the deadline is a tacit admission that this team is going nowhere. Won't happen. And his value is far from non existant. Stick him in a big park in the NL and watch out.

A pitcher who can give you ~200 inning of average production is valuable, but when you already have a guy like that in Dempster I think that value lessens, and just makes your rotation closer to mediocre and hurts our team from taking that next step. If he doesn't get better this year that's two disappointing seasons in a row. Isn't Lester essentially a different version of Lincecum, Johnson, and Halladay during next years free agency? All have that potential but bad recent results and different concerns. Nolasco or Floyd could give you those innings too.

I agree, I think he would do well in the NL, especially a smaller market team. I don't think he has any intention of signing with us once his contract is done, he doesn't handle Boston well anymore. The Angels picked up Santana's option and traded him, but they got nothing back, a trade isn't an option.

todu82
07-09-2013, 12:33 PM
Lester's a good pitcher and all but I think if he continues to struggle I think you'll see him in another uniform in 2014.

Station 13
07-09-2013, 12:48 PM
Lester still has 95 last night. but his control is just very poor to make any use of it. t's something Lester is struggling with. The reliance on his cutter drives up the pitch count as it seems for 5 he throws, 2 has to be block by his catcher, at least at least 2 foul and maybe a strikeout. His K rate has really dropped and it damage his final line, unable to get that big strikeout when needed. When the 5-6th inning roll by, his pitches is already in the century mark, not because of 1 or 2 bad balls, because he cannot put away batters consistently.

As far as the option, he remains healthy and it isn't a bad investment to pick it up.

-Lavigne43-
07-09-2013, 01:19 PM
Lester still has 95 last night. but his control is just very poor to make any use of it. t's something Lester is struggling with. The reliance on his cutter drives up the pitch count as it seems for 5 he throws, 2 has to be block by his catcher, at least at least 2 foul and maybe a strikeout. His K rate has really dropped and it damage his final line, unable to get that big strikeout when needed. When the 5-6th inning roll by, his pitches is already in the century mark, not because of 1 or 2 bad balls, because he cannot put away batters consistently.

As far as the option, he remains healthy and it isn't a bad investment to pick it up.

He wasn't sitting 95, he threw that on like one pitch, eliciting surprise from Orsillo. His max velocity the last 5 years, the fastest recorded pitch in each season.

2009: 98.4
2010: 97.5
2011: 96.2
2012: 96.2
2013: 95.2

You're right that he can't put away batters like he used to. I see so many foul balls and 2 strike hits off him

Nomar
07-09-2013, 07:45 PM
Lester is like a teenage girl on the mound. That being said, I would pick up the option if the season ended today.

RedSoxtober
07-09-2013, 10:33 PM
Just checking on some of the PitchFX numbers at FanGraphs. Not only is velocity off but movement on his cutter, curve, and change are off (less movement) as well. Unfortunately those pitches count for just over 70% of his pitches thrown. Down velocity with less movement? No wonder he's not generating strikeouts. Two year trend? Yeah, that might be a mix for another employer in 2014.

bagwell368
07-09-2013, 10:49 PM
Before the season it seemed like a no-brainer that it would be picked up, but so far this year he's basically pitching the same as last year. This year he has a slightly better K rate, slightly worse BB rate, once again his velocity is slightly down from last year. His era isn't as bad, but it gets closer with every start. His FIP seems to think hes allowing more runs then he should, 4.11 last year and 4.12 this year, but a low 4 era isn't exactly what you wanted from him.

He has a $13M option next year. Since the beginning of last year he has been a below average pitcher, and nothing I see gives me hope that he will improve and return to being the Lester of old. If the season ended today I'm not sure what the Red Sox would do. $13M might be worth gambling on him rebounding, but is it worth it when our rotation next year consists of:

1: Lackey, who's pitching like he did for the Angels, his surgery looks like it turned back the clock
2: Buchholz, injured every year, but has put it all together this year, he's under team control until 2017
3: Dempster, has been a very solid innings eater, just what we wanted. FIP says his era is way better than his era, probably because all of the homeruns.
4. Doubront, has pitched very good since the start of June, young and cheap.

We have a slew of pitchers who could potentially take a spot next year: Webster and Rubby would be the front runners, with Ranaudo, Workman, and Barnes all possible at some point.

Names that stand out in free agency are: Floyd, Garza, Halladay, Haren, Hudson, Hughes, Johnson, Kuroda, Lincecum, Maholm, Nolasco. Nothing too appealing, which is funny since this free agency looked great just a couple years ago. What are the odds we get more value out of one of these free agent pitchers then Lester at $13M?

Trading him voids his 2014 option, so why would a team trade anything of good value for a mediocre rental? The best hope is that he turns it around and this thread looks silly in a couple months. I am really starting to wonder if this is the last we see of Lester in a Red Sox uniform though. Even if he turns it around and ends up having a good year and we pick up the option, he would be turning 31 at the start of his next contract. At that age with his overall decline how can you offer him a 4+ year contract?

Nice write up but if you think Lackey, Dempster, and Buchholz can all be counted on for 185+ IP each, I have bridge to sell you.

FA's are expensive, kids are not a sure thing either.

I think Lester could use a skipped start on top of the AS break.

-Lavigne43-
07-10-2013, 05:47 PM
Nice write up but if you think Lackey, Dempster, and Buchholz can all be counted on for 185+ IP each, I have bridge to sell you.

FA's are expensive, kids are not a sure thing either.

I think Lester could use a skipped start on top of the AS break.

They can't, Clay clearly can't. Dempster is around that pretty much every season, but that could catch up to him eventually. Lackey was before he got hurt.

To be clear, I'm not arguing for the Red Sox to not pick up his option. I just think it has become a possible scenario, and I wonder if it would be the right move.

FA is full of surprises, but I think some of those pitchers could be had on 1 year deals to re-establish value. Maybe trade for a starter and use that money on a position player. Kids are no sure thing, but I'm hopeful at least one of the guys in the upper levels can give us decent production next year.

PaudBall
07-11-2013, 12:31 AM
Of course you pick it up! Starting pitching on the FA market is prohibitively expensive and we have no one internally who I would remotely count on to replicate even his crappy seasons. On the open market he would command a lot more despite his issues.

-Lavigne43-
07-11-2013, 12:44 AM
I highly doubt he would command that much on the open market if he continues to perform this way. Coming off two below average seasons, with rapidly declining stuff, and turning 30? He would be lucky to get great paying 3 year contract. This is 1.5 seasons of below league average results for him, everything seems to be trending down for him.

PaudBall
07-11-2013, 12:50 AM
Ryan Dempster is 36 and got 13.25 per. He would get it. You underestimate how ridiculous free agency is. Anibal Sanchez got 5/88, coming off a 9 win season, won 13 games in his best year, has yet to pitch 200 innings, and is 29.

-Lavigne43-
07-11-2013, 01:10 AM
Dempster pitches around 200 innings every year and had a 3.38 era last year with good peripherals. Hes been a dependable middle of the rotation type pitcher for years. Who gives a **** how many wins Sanchez has on a horrible Marlins team? The guy put up great stats that matter the 3 years leading up to his FA, one of the more underrated players in the league. He threw just barely under 200 innings the last 3 years. Hes been terrific for the Tigers this year too. Hes clearly a better pitcher than Lester right now.

Lester has a 4.74 era since 2012, I'm sure that would look even uglier if I included the last month of 2011. He has been bad for a long time now

win red sox
07-11-2013, 01:16 AM
could decline his option and make a qualifying offer.

PaudBall
07-11-2013, 02:02 AM
Fair enough on the wins not being a big deal, but Sanchez had major injury issues as well. I agree he is pitching well, but I remember a lot of people not wanting to touch him here for that money. I would love to hear your alternative to giving Lester another shot at 1 yr 13 million. Decline that and he'll get that on the market and then some.

bagwell368
07-11-2013, 01:33 PM
Ryan Dempster is 36 and got 13.25 per. He would get it. You underestimate how ridiculous free agency is. Anibal Sanchez got 5/88, coming off a 9 win season, won 13 games in his best year, has yet to pitch 200 innings, and is 29.

x2

-Lavigne43-
07-11-2013, 07:27 PM
Fair enough on the wins not being a big deal, but Sanchez had major injury issues as well. I agree he is pitching well, but I remember a lot of people not wanting to touch him here for that money. I would love to hear your alternative to giving Lester another shot at 1 yr 13 million. Decline that and he'll get that on the market and then some.

Free agency is very 'what have you done for me lately?' and Sanchez put together 3 very good years in a row. He got too much money and years, but he was in prime position to get overpaid with his recent track record, and the very weak free agent class.

Lester would be coming off 2 below league average seasons in a row. I don't know if he would look for a 1 year contract to try and reestablish himself, or go for the biggest contract he can get. If he took the 1 year deal, or we pick up his option, and he has a third bad season in a row he will be looked at as a bad pitcher who can eat innings, he won't get paid that much. 2 bad seasons in a row, with no real sign of getting better? That's a risky sign, I think he would be lucky to get the Victorino 3 years $39M contract. With Farrell back and all of his pitches still in decline it makes you wonder if his arm is just burned out and it's not a mechanical thing.

There's a lot of options in the FA market, I posted the names that stood out earlier. Nothing exciting at all, but maybe you can use the money from Lester's option on someone like Kendrys Morales who I like as an upgrade at 1b.

If you think Lester is a mediocre pitcher, but a mediocre pitcher that can give close to 200 innings next year is worth a 1 year $13M contract, then a mediocre pitcher like Nolasco could be a better option at a smaller price. Maholm has been a good pitcher the last 3 years and might be a good value.

Lester's in the same category as Lincecum, except Timmy was a better pitcher and still is striking out a ton of batters. If Halladay comes back from his surgery and looks good maybe he would be a better option on a 1 year contract, his work effort would also be a good influence on the younger pitchers.

Maybe the best option is just to give a spot to one of the kids and sign a vet as minor league depth. This organization needs some of these young arms to become legit starters, they'll have to give one of them a legit spot eventually. What Lester gives us next year is a gamble, he might continue to tailspin, so why not gamble that the farm can produce an acceptable pitcher next year?

At this point Lester is just a short term arm for next year. I would be shocked if he was on the team in 2015. So it's either replace him this off season, or the next off season. The 2015 has Kershaw (I doubt he makes it), and Masterson + Scherzer, who will likely be severely overpaid as the top of what looks like a very weak pitching class. It doesn't have as much depth as this years.

BostonSports96
07-11-2013, 08:08 PM
$13 million per? Wow I doubt Lester gets that.

And for those who said Dempster got 13.25 mill per, he was coming off of a very good season for the Cubs (despite struggling with the Rangers after the deadline). Lester isn't. He'll probably be coming off of two straight seasons of high 4 ERAs.

bagwell368
07-11-2013, 09:11 PM
Free agency is very 'what have you done for me lately?' and Sanchez put together 3 very good years in a row. He got too much money and years, but he was in prime position to get overpaid with his recent track record, and the very weak free agent class.

Lester would be coming off 2 below league average seasons in a row. I don't know if he would look for a 1 year contract to try and reestablish himself, or go for the biggest contract he can get. If he took the 1 year deal, or we pick up his option, and he has a third bad season in a row he will be looked at as a bad pitcher who can eat innings, he won't get paid that much. 2 bad seasons in a row, with no real sign of getting better? That's a risky sign, I think he would be lucky to get the Victorino 3 years $39M contract. With Farrell back and all of his pitches still in decline it makes you wonder if his arm is just burned out and it's not a mechanical thing.

There's a lot of options in the FA market, I posted the names that stood out earlier. Nothing exciting at all, but maybe you can use the money from Lester's option on someone like Kendrys Morales who I like as an upgrade at 1b.

If you think Lester is a mediocre pitcher, but a mediocre pitcher that can give close to 200 innings next year is worth a 1 year $13M contract, then a mediocre pitcher like Nolasco could be a better option at a smaller price. Maholm has been a good pitcher the last 3 years and might be a good value.

Lester's in the same category as Lincecum, except Timmy was a better pitcher and still is striking out a ton of batters. If Halladay comes back from his surgery and looks good maybe he would be a better option on a 1 year contract, his work effort would also be a good influence on the younger pitchers.

Maybe the best option is just to give a spot to one of the kids and sign a vet as minor league depth. This organization needs some of these young arms to become legit starters, they'll have to give one of them a legit spot eventually. What Lester gives us next year is a gamble, he might continue to tailspin, so why not gamble that the farm can produce an acceptable pitcher next year?

At this point Lester is just a short term arm for next year. I would be shocked if he was on the team in 2015. So it's either replace him this off season, or the next off season. The 2015 has Kershaw (I doubt he makes it), and Masterson + Scherzer, who will likely be severely overpaid as the top of what looks like a very weak pitching class. It doesn't have as much depth as this years.

Nolasco has gotten owned vs AL teams since 2010.

Lincecum is inferior to Lester, and has been getting killed in a pitchers Division the past 2 years.

Maholm is another NL body that hasn't been great vs the AL career wise.

Sanchez has never had a multi-year peak at the level of Lester. He's pitched better since the start of '11, but he's getting paid $16M per, and he's not available.

I'm fine with a better solution for '15 - an in house solution. Not a FA solution.

bagwell368
07-11-2013, 09:18 PM
$13 million per? Wow I doubt Lester gets that.

And for those who said Dempster got 13.25 mill per, he was coming off of a very good season for the Cubs (despite struggling with the Rangers after the deadline). Lester isn't. He'll probably be coming off of two straight seasons of high 4 ERAs.

Dempster was turning 36 this spring after a rough ride in the AL at the end of last year.

Lester will be 30 1/4 next spring in a weak FA class. He's spent his whole career in the difficult AL East. We will have no real proven options on the team/farm to plug into the rotation in his place by the start of '14. We will have an 37 year old Dempster, a brittle Buchholz, Lackey will be 35.5 yrs old - yeah, that's 570 IP of help there....

BostonSports96
07-11-2013, 09:31 PM
Dempster was turning 36 this spring after a rough ride in the AL at the end of last year.

Lester will be 30 1/4 next spring in a weak FA class. He's spent his whole career in the difficult AL East. We will have no real proven options on the team/farm to plug into the rotation in his place by the start of '14. We will have an 37 year old Dempster, a brittle Buchholz, Lackey will be 35.5 yrs old - yeah, that's 570 IP of help there....

So you want Lester to just eat innings, no matter how bad he is, at $13 mill per?

I'd look into acquiring Garza or Santana in FA instead.

-Lavigne43-
07-11-2013, 10:01 PM
Nolasco has gotten owned vs AL teams since 2010.

Lincecum is inferior to Lester, and has been getting killed in a pitchers Division the past 2 years.

Maholm is another NL body that hasn't been great vs the AL career wise.

Sanchez has never had a multi-year peak at the level of Lester. He's pitched better since the start of '11, but he's getting paid $16M per, and he's not available.

I'm fine with a better solution for '15 - an in house solution. Not a FA solution.

I think you misread on Sanchez. I wasn't saying hes had a better career then Lester, and definitely not that we should acquire him. I was saying he put himself in a much better place in FA to the guy who was saying Lester would get a comparable deal as a FA right now. If Lester was a FA a couple years ago he would have gotten a $100M+ deal.

Lincecum was one of the top pitchers in baseball for a couple years, Lester has never been that high. His mechanics were way out of whack last year, but this year his peripherals are pretty good. His stuff has declined, but it still plays well. Pitchers don't go to Fenway to reestablish their value though, unless he gets way overpaid for a year.

Letting Lester should be looked at as upgrading that spot in the rotation though, not saving money. The FA crop is full of bleh pitchers, so that might have to be through a trade. Maybe a long term acquisition through a trade since another spot is open in 2015 with Dempster's deal done. If Lester continues to pitch like he has, you have to wonder if he will be even worse next year though.

-Lavigne43-
07-11-2013, 10:06 PM
So you want Lester to just eat innings, no matter how bad he is, at $13 mill per?

I'd look into acquiring Garza or Santana in FA instead.

Garza is an above average-good pitcher with injury issues who is probably going to be the most overpaid pitcher in baseball next year since he is so overrated and is the best pitcher in a weak class. He would be a terrible acquisition that we would regret. Santana is either good or horrible every other year, he's going to be overpaid too because this year happens to be a good one.

PaudBall
07-11-2013, 10:37 PM
I think you misread on Sanchez. I wasn't saying hes had a better career then Lester, and definitely not that we should acquire him. I was saying he put himself in a much better place in FA to the guy who was saying Lester would get a comparable deal as a FA right now. If Lester was a FA a couple years ago he would have gotten a $100M+ deal.

Lincecum was one of the top pitchers in baseball for a couple years, Lester has never been that high. His mechanics were way out of whack last year, but this year his peripherals are pretty good. His stuff has declined, but it still plays well. Pitchers don't go to Fenway to reestablish their value though, unless he gets way overpaid for a year.

Letting Lester should be looked at as upgrading that spot in the rotation though, not saving money. The FA crop is full of bleh pitchers, so that might have to be through a trade. Maybe a long term acquisition through a trade since another spot is open in 2015 with Dempster's deal done. If Lester continues to pitch like he has, you have to wonder if he will be even worse next year though.

I wasn't exactly saying he would get a comparable deal. I am only refuting your point that we should not pick up Lester's contact because it is too much $$. He was just someone I was referencing as an example of how much money gets thrown at SPs in the open market. I don't love the way Lester is playing, and if there was a reliable and cost effective alternative I would be all for it.

PaudBall
07-11-2013, 10:37 PM
Sorry, quoted the wrong person.

bagwell368
07-11-2013, 10:41 PM
So you want Lester to just eat innings, no matter how bad he is, at $13 mill per?

I'd look into acquiring Garza or Santana in FA instead.

Garza? Not here, sorry. Santana? He should retire...

Obviously if something goes wrong with Lester the rest of the way no, but I was able to prove in 2011 at least if not 2012 that Lesters woes were connected to throwing to Salty. Maybe Lester should work with a top flight defensive catcher instead of Slaty, that might do it.

bagwell368
07-11-2013, 10:50 PM
Lincecum was one of the top pitchers in baseball for a couple years, Lester has never been that high.

You sure about that? 2008-11 Lester was 4th, 3rd, 5th, 9th in pitching WAR in the AL. Lincecum was pitching in some strong pitchers park in a pitchers league. Lincecum was 1st, 1st, 6th - with no other mentions in the top 10.

As I wrote 3-4 years ago, Lincecum's arm whip/delivery is the quickest I've ever seen, and with his physique as soon as he tweeked a knee or a wrist, he was never going to be the same, because the injuries would slow him down. I'm confident Lester will have more career WAR from today on than Lincecum.

I also last year or the year before showed that Salty was killing Lester in at least 2011 if not more. Throw in the AL East, 3 pitching coaches 3 years in a row, and it's a load to bear.


Letting Lester should be looked at as upgrading that spot in the rotation though, not saving money. The FA crop is full of bleh pitchers, so that might have to be through a trade. Maybe a long term acquisition through a trade since another spot is open in 2015 with Dempster's deal done. If Lester continues to pitch like he has, you have to wonder if he will be even worse next year though.

Get him away from Salty, and get him to stop antagonizing umps - that's my Dx.

Pittz
07-11-2013, 11:22 PM
That doesn't help his decreasing velocity and movement.

-Lavigne43-
07-11-2013, 11:50 PM
You sure about that? 2008-11 Lester was 4th, 3rd, 5th, 9th in pitching WAR in the AL. Lincecum was pitching in some strong pitchers park in a pitchers league. Lincecum was 1st, 1st, 6th - with no other mentions in the top 10.

As I wrote 3-4 years ago, Lincecum's arm whip/delivery is the quickest I've ever seen, and with his physique as soon as he tweeked a knee or a wrist, he was never going to be the same, because the injuries would slow him down. I'm confident Lester will have more career WAR from today on than Lincecum.

I also last year or the year before showed that Salty was killing Lester in at least 2011 if not more. Throw in the AL East, 3 pitching coaches 3 years in a row, and it's a load to bear.



Get him away from Salty, and get him to stop antagonizing umps - that's my Dx.

Lincecum had a 7.9 rWAR season and a 7.3 rWAR season, a 170 ERA+ over those two years. It was a short peak, but Lester never has dominated the league like that. Hes fallen far, but he still is striking out guys at a very high rate. That makes me think he has a chance to be good if he can improve his command. That's a big if. He was dominant in the pen during the playoffs last year, I think that could be his future role.

Also I think he was talking about Ervin Santana.

BostonSports96
07-12-2013, 01:02 AM
Garza? Not here, sorry. Santana? He should retire...

Obviously if something goes wrong with Lester the rest of the way no, but I was able to prove in 2011 at least if not 2012 that Lesters woes were connected to throwing to Salty. Maybe Lester should work with a top flight defensive catcher instead of Slaty, that might do it.

Well Ross was working, but he's only got next year left with him. If you give Lavarnway the bulk of the time, I doubt you'll see much improvement from Lester.

Also, if Lester has to rely on a "top flight defensive catcher" to be effective, than **** that. He's not worth it.

BostonSports96
07-12-2013, 01:03 AM
Also I think he was talking about Ervin Santana.

That's exactly right. Why would I mean Johan Santana?

You want an innings eater with the potential to be better than Lester? Ervin Santana could be that guy.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 06:26 AM
That doesn't help his decreasing velocity and movement.

Lester's FB is .1 MPH less than last year, and 1.2 MPH on average less than his best year (2009) for FB velocity. Seems pretty miniscule to me.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 06:35 AM
Lincecum had a 7.9 rWAR season and a 7.3 rWAR season, a 170 ERA+ over those two years.

And he'll never get near that again. He's gone to hell in a number of ways. Lester has a much higher chance of getting back to something like his peak.


but Lester never has dominated the league like that

Irrelevant. Besides the fact he was toiling in the much easier NL in the pitching division of the NL - he seems very unlikely to recover his mechanics/velocity.


Hes fallen far, but he still is striking out guys at a very high rate. That makes me think he has a chance to be good if he can improve his command.

His mechanics are markedly different than his peak (he's dropped 3.9 MPH since his peak FB velocity and sits below Lester)


He was dominant in the pen during the playoffs last year, I think that could be his future role.

Well since we are discussing Lester in Boston as a SP, it's not a ringing endorsement for TL in Boston as a SP. TL's records are not that great vs the Al East as well.


Also I think he was talking about Ervin Santana.

Very up and down guy. He basically sucked from 2009-2012 inclusive. He's an AL West guy. Yanks, Orioles, and TB have all hit him hard in his career.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 06:39 AM
That's exactly right. Why would I mean Johan Santana?

You want an innings eater with the potential to be better than Lester? Ervin Santana could be that guy.

I don't know why you would bring up Johan, if you used the first name, than it wouldn't be confusing...

ES Isn't that guy. ES's 2009-2012 list of ERA+ figures: 87, 102, 111, 75. His FB velocity is 2.2 less than his peak of 2008

These marks pitching in the AL West. He's been crushed by the Yanks, and hit well by TB and the Orioles in his career. 3 of his last 6 years he's had years of: 150, 139, 178 IP as a full time starter.

He's being paid $13M this year. You want this guy at $16M x 4? I don't. Much happier with a one year solution, and wait for the Farm to spit out whomever to start for us in 2015 at or near league minimum, rather than a lanky aging pitcher who gets beat up in the AL East for pretty big money.

bagwell368
07-12-2013, 06:50 AM
Well Ross was working, but he's only got next year left with him. If you give Lavarnway the bulk of the time, I doubt you'll see much improvement from Lester.

Also, if Lester has to rely on a "top flight defensive catcher" to be effective, than **** that. He's not worth it.

I didn't say rely, like any SP he'll do better with a better defensive catcher. Salty has a record of sucking with other SP's as well. Better for the team to be rid of him.

When Ross is done, we get another big defensive catcher, there are more of them than any other type of catcher - you just have to deal with the offense.

Lavarnway is already Salty's superior defensively in many ways if not overall. Given that he has less then 1/2 of the professional games played at C, and started to play there a good deal later than Salty I'd say that's pretty good.

RedSoxtober
07-24-2013, 02:46 PM
After posting here earlier I kind of regretted it. The terrible start against SEA made it seem like he was still completely lost. However, he'd had two good starts prior to that thanks to a revamped windup that keeps him on a better downhill plane. While the final line against TOR two starts before the SEA game was only so-so (7IP/4ER) this is the game where he hurt his hip on one of the final two batters, both of whom reached base, and Tazawa allowed both runners to score thanks in part to a BB and WP on his part.

In his last five starts he's 3-2, 4.26ERA, 28k/9bb/31.1IP with three quality starts plus the start in TOR that easily could have been a QS if the BP held. He's pitched past the sixth inning four times in those 5 starts. Omit the SEA start from those last 5 and he's down to a 3.37ERA and 1.162whip.

Pushing him back two days to get a relatively easy start last night may have been a very wise move. It kept him on a roll of sorts. It also put him on his "regular" turn in the sense that he pitched on the 10th day (rather than 8th) -- just as if he had skipped one start.

Perhaps he's not the guy we had through mid-May but he may well be back to a pretty serviceable LHP SP. Slot him between Lackey and Dempster/Buchholz and he may bloom again without the pressure of being the "ace".

Nomar
07-24-2013, 02:48 PM
He loses his arm slots every year it seems, but I still think picking up the option is the way to go.

bagwell368
07-28-2013, 10:07 PM
2.34 ERA last 3 starts, a keeper methinks..

The Allen
07-29-2013, 12:08 AM
Small Sample Size :p

bagwell368
07-29-2013, 06:59 AM
Small Sample Size

Context counts too. It's happened as we've been overtaken by TB, while Buchholz languishes with what appears to be a minor injury and a poor plan to get back.

Meanwhile Lackey is 5.03 in his last 3 starts, Dempster 5.79...

RedSoxtober
07-29-2013, 11:04 AM
Small Sample Size :p

Yes, but... as mentioned above, he also had two good starts followed by the stinker that prompted this thread. The question at the time was, basically, which Lester do we have. The track record in the last three games suggests that it's the early season Lester rather than the May version.

Even more importantly, the results correlate to an adjustment that he made in his windup. When you can pinpoint a mechanical adjustment that perfectly correlates to improved stats then it's worth taking note.

bagwell368
07-29-2013, 11:07 AM
Yes, but... as mentioned above, he also had two good starts followed by the stinker that prompted this thread. The question at the time was, basically, which Lester do we have. The track record in the last three games suggests that it's the early season Lester rather than the May version.

Even more importantly, the results correlate to an adjustment that he made in his windup. When you can pinpoint a mechanical adjustment that perfectly correlates to improved stats then it's worth taking note.

Yeah. His FB is coming out faster and with more control, that's setting up his other stuff. He's not walking many either, plus those days off didn't hurt either.

AI
07-29-2013, 11:24 AM
Plus, this hasn't been mentioned yet, he is using his changeup instead of his cutter and that has made a significant difference in the way he attacks hitters. His changeup is quite good.

The Allen
07-29-2013, 11:40 AM
Guys...i was being sarcastic/funny, i was hoping the tongue would be a giveaway but it didn't haha. Lester has been a very good pitcher over the course of his career but he has been struggling the last year and a half or so and recently has been pitching like he used to. Small sample size could very well be this but of course like above poster said about Lackey and Dempster having ERA's over 5 in their last three starts as well is a little absurd for the season they have both had albeit Dempster hasn't been that great but still.

-Lavigne43-
07-29-2013, 11:51 AM
Hopefully he's turning a corner, I thought it was obvious Allen was being sarcastic when I saw that last night :).

The first game of that Lackey 3 game sample he gave up 2 runs. He was good in the 2nd game against the Yankees too. His line got ruined late when he gave up some hits late and Thornton came in and allowed them all to score. Really it's only one bad game for him.

AI
07-29-2013, 05:03 PM
Scout who watched Jon Lester yesterday in Baltimore after not seeing him for past few months: "This is the guy that I remember." #RedSox
...

Nomar
07-29-2013, 05:05 PM
Still probably wouldn't have been a bad idea to trade him for Myers.

AI
07-29-2013, 05:11 PM
Wrong thread: delete.

Station 13
07-29-2013, 05:16 PM
Still probably wouldn't have been a bad idea to trade him for Myers.

it was reported they didn't want Lester.

bagwell368
08-24-2013, 10:46 PM
it was reported they didn't want Lester.

It's been reported more frequently that they wanted more than Lester..

Last 7 starts: ERA: 2.76 plus tonights 7.1 IP w/ 1 ER...

Since he's the functional ace of the staff at this point, might be wise to consider taking that option for next year.

Crucis
08-25-2013, 01:44 AM
It's been reported more frequently that they wanted more than Lester..

Last 7 starts: ERA: 2.76 plus tonights 7.1 IP w/ 1 ER...

Since he's the functional ace of the staff at this point, might be wise to consider taking that option for next year.

Kinda seems like a given that the Sox would take that option for next season with Lester. Whether they're willing to pay him anything close to the market rate after next season may be a different thing entirely.

ruckus16969
08-25-2013, 11:54 AM
They will pick up his option for sure. Why not he is a proven vet and even if he isn't what he used to be he is still worth keeping around. Even If they just keep as a 3 guy

-Lavigne43-
08-25-2013, 01:25 PM
Hes pitched well enough lately that he would have to bomb in September and the playoffs for it to be an option. Stopped throwing his cutter 99% of the time thank god

Station 13
08-25-2013, 02:41 PM
Of course they will. Now they gotta find some sucka to take Dempster.

Lester is about a #3 these days and a durable one at that.

RedSoxtober
08-25-2013, 06:48 PM
It's been reported more frequently that they wanted more than Lester..

Last 7 starts: ERA: 2.76 plus tonights 7.1 IP w/ 1 ER...

Since he's the functional ace of the staff at this point, might be wise to consider taking that option for next year.
I think "more than Lester" can be viewed in light of the actual TBR trade for Myers including Davis and returning a handful more prospects than Myers.


Hes pitched well enough lately that he would have to bomb in September and the playoffs for it to be an option. Stopped throwing his cutter 99% of the time thank god
+1


Of course they will. Now they gotta find some sucka to take Dempster.

Lester is about a #3 these days and a durable one at that.
Maybe. Don't get me wrong, I'm fine if they do. However, I'm also completely fine with them moving another starter and letting him battle at the #5 slot. That may be more realistic.

bagwell368
08-25-2013, 09:41 PM
Of course they will. Now they gotta find some sucka to take Dempster.

Lester is about a #3 these days and a durable one at that.

Among AL starters with more than 20 starts this year, Lester ranks #20 in WAR, that's better then a 3rd starter, that's the upper end of a 2nd.

bagwell368
10-07-2013, 11:20 AM
According to JAWS, Lester is the 296th best pitcher of all time, and his playoff record is a good deal better than that:

IP: 49 2/3
ERA: 2.54

If he's sub 3.70 with 200 IP in 2014, expect him to sign a 4 year deal worth at least $70M. Our best bet is to tear up his '13 option and sign him to that sort of a deal, or take the option and QO him for '15, because in the open market he's going to get a score.

PaudBall
10-07-2013, 03:11 PM
According to JAWS, Lester is the 296th best pitcher of all time, and his playoff record is a good deal better than that:

IP: 49 2/3
ERA: 2.54

If he's sub 3.70 with 200 IP in 2014, expect him to sign a 4 year deal worth at least $70M. Our best bet is to tear up his '13 option and sign him to that sort of a deal, or take the option and QO him for '15, because in the open market he's going to get a score.

Completely agree. Barring a horrendous 2014, I hope they go the 4 yr deal route. It would be a lot to expect one of our SP prospects to step in and fill his shoes and I HATE SP free agents. There are rarely any I would want because of the cost. Not to mention teams don't usually let decent starting pitchers hit the open market if there aren't concerns about them.

RedSoxtober
10-08-2013, 09:19 AM
Completely agree. Barring a horrendous 2014, I hope they go the 4 yr deal route. It would be a lot to expect one of our SP prospects to step in and fill his shoes and I HATE SP free agents. There are rarely any I would want because of the cost. Not to mention teams don't usually let decent starting pitchers hit the open market if there aren't concerns about them.

Headline FA's after 2014 include Scherzer, Masterson, and Shields. Oh, and some dude named Kershaw. Teams TRY to sign guys like these when there are no questions about their health but they're subject to the agreement by the player. Some sign early when they like the environment (Weaver, Felix) buy many more go the FA route like CC, Lee, etc.

bagwell368
10-08-2013, 09:16 PM
Lester is over Masterson and Shields. Him and Scherzer might be pretty close and all bow to Kershaw.

RedSoxtober
10-09-2013, 10:13 AM
^^ Yeah, I'm not really trying to compare them only pointing out that the FA market in Lester's walk year (assuming the option is picked up) has some pretty nice names available. Some of them could be extended before we get there.

rufo4100
10-13-2013, 10:41 AM
It will be picked up or a longer term deal will be worked out

ruckus16969
10-13-2013, 11:30 PM
MLBTR says the Dodgers may trade Kemp this summer why not put together a package headlined with Lester and make a push for him?

BGeer091
10-13-2013, 11:33 PM
No way we trade Lester in a deal for Kemp. I could see a top pitcher spec, Bradley and two of Betts, Cech, Swihart. I would not make that trade.

SirHizz
10-14-2013, 01:07 AM
MLBTR says the Dodgers may trade Kemp this summer why not put together a package headlined with Lester and make a push for him?

If the Dodgers get offered a great package, they might bite, but just for salary dump reasons? I don't think so. On the other hand, getting rid of Kemp might allow them to sign Kershaw and Cano for a cimbined 450m$. I seriously don't know
But what I know is that I wouldn't touch Kemp. His contract runs for 6 more years at 21 per and he has only surpassed the 20m plateau twice in his career (fangraphs)
If the FO is willing to take on such a massive contract, why wouldn't they just offer Ells a 6/100 deal? Both were having one huge outlier season and Ells combined WAR over 7 seasons is better than Kemps (not to mention some of his seasons were cut short due to freak injuries)

ruckus16969
10-14-2013, 10:56 AM
If the Dodgers get offered a great package, they might bite, but just for salary dump reasons? I don't think so. On the other hand, getting rid of Kemp might allow them to sign Kershaw and Cano for a cimbined 450m$. I seriously don't know
But what I know is that I wouldn't touch Kemp. His contract runs for 6 more years at 21 per and he has only surpassed the 20m plateau twice in his career (fangraphs)
If the FO is willing to take on such a massive contract, why wouldn't they just offer Ells a 6/100 deal? Both were having one huge outlier season and Ells combined WAR over 7 seasons is better than Kemps (not to mention some of his seasons were cut short due to freak injuries)

I would for them to keep Ells. I'm one of the few that hope they do. But I think we need a bat that has more pop. Kemp will has the abilty to give as many steals as he does HR's. He can be a 30/30 guy here. Both guys would be great actually lol

Station 13
10-14-2013, 10:58 AM
No thanks on Kemp. I see a lot of whining about Ellsbury injuries, Kemp?

ruckus16969
10-14-2013, 10:59 AM
this is the arttical I got this idea from

grandsalami
10-28-2013, 11:38 PM
rip up his option and give him whatever the **** he wants

MiamiBoy77
10-28-2013, 11:40 PM
Breaking news: Red sox pick up John Lesters option immediately after Game 5.

-Lavigne43-
10-29-2013, 12:22 AM
I don't think he's worth the $13M option. Give him $130

bagwell368
10-29-2013, 12:27 PM
I would for them to keep Ells. I'm one of the few that hope they do. But I think we need a bat that has more pop. Kemp will has the abilty to give as many steals as he does HR's. He can be a 30/30 guy here. Both guys would be great actually lol

Kemp is very likely not to steal 30 bases ever again. At $21M per, I wouldn't deal JBJ for Kemp and $14M per year to pay Kemps contract - he's going to be done long before his deal is.

BGeer091
10-29-2013, 01:20 PM
The Buchholz for Trumbo talk should start soon. L.A. reportedly wants pitching bad. I know a lot of ppl here love Trumbo

-Lavigne43-
10-29-2013, 01:40 PM
Trumbo is so overrated. A more powerful version of WMB as a hitter. He hits a lot of homers and is terrible at everything else.

Celtic AL
10-29-2013, 01:53 PM
im more interested in Cj Cron than Trumbo.

But anways! Hopefully Lester gets a extension soon.

Pittz
10-29-2013, 02:46 PM
I don't get what people like about Trumbo. Then again, I don't get what people like about WMB.

bagwell368
10-29-2013, 04:19 PM
Trumbo is terrible. I wouldn't trade Workman and Coyle for him.

BGeer091
10-29-2013, 07:31 PM
Phew lol I didn't want to read about how we need Trumbo lol.

Do get back to Lester I have to admit I was wrong. I wanted to move him last year and in the off season. So glad we didn't

SirHizz
10-29-2013, 08:31 PM
The Buchholz for Trumbo talk should start soon. L.A. reportedly wants pitching bad. I know a lot of ppl here love Trumbo

Buchholz' value is much higher than that, especially for other teams. The grass is always greener. I know that Clay isn't exactly Mr. Durable, but at least his contract is team friendly and when healthy one of the better pitchers in the game. That's still worth a lot.

BGeer091
10-29-2013, 08:43 PM
^^agreed^^

Lackeyfan41
10-29-2013, 08:48 PM
Trumbo is terrible.

Under .300 OBP from a 1B/DH? Never do we want that, never mind giving up a good pitcher. All he can do is hit 30ish HR, which is not very impressive.

PatsSoxKnicks
10-30-2013, 01:56 AM
Buchholz' value is much higher than that, especially for other teams. The grass is always greener. I know that Clay isn't exactly Mr. Durable, but at least his contract is team friendly and when healthy one of the better pitchers in the game. That's still worth a lot.

If when Clay is up again, he's willing to take a contract that pays him like a 150 inning pitcher, then he's worth keeping. The Sox could even send him on the DL for two months so he's ready for the postseason (obviously that'd require some solid depth in the starters, which they'll have). Basically he'll be Rich Harden, never pitch close to a full season but be really good when he does pitch.

RedSoxtober
10-30-2013, 11:32 AM
If when Clay is up again, he's willing to take a contract that pays him like a 150 inning pitcher, then he's worth keeping. The Sox could even send him on the DL for two months so he's ready for the postseason (obviously that'd require some solid depth in the starters, which they'll have). Basically he'll be Rich Harden, never pitch close to a full season but be really good when he does pitch.

If this is your perspective then you have to ask another question: is he more valuable to the Red Sox as a trade option? I tend to agree with SirHizz and others; we're down on his durability (and me on his overall attitude and mentality) but other teams see the potential from early 2013 and the 2010 campaign. Even his teammates believe that he's going to put together a CY season.

I think his value around the league is much higher than many here are suggesting through our dissatisfaction and that he could be a valuable trade asset. Much more so when you factor in his relatively cheap contract ($20M guaranteed through 2015; with $13M and $13.5M options for 2016 and 2017 respectively).

AI
10-30-2013, 03:44 PM
Trumbo is garbage.

Station 13
10-30-2013, 03:48 PM
BGeer do you still have a man crush for LoMo too?

BGeer091
10-30-2013, 08:30 PM
I like LoMo I do not like Trumbo. I was simply stating that ppl are probably going to start suggesting getting Trumbo.

I would love it if we got LoMo.

bagwell368
10-31-2013, 10:12 PM
Here's my guess on Lester's extension:

$10M signing bonus
$13M for '14
$22M * 4 ('15-'18)
$2M buyout or $22M ('19)

5yr/$113M ($22.6M per) or 6yr/$133 ($22.166M per)

Lackeyfan41
10-31-2013, 11:28 PM
Here's my guess on Lester's extension:

$10M signing bonus
$13M for '14
$22M * 4 ('15-'18)
$2M buyout or $22M ('19)

5yr/$113M ($22.6M per) or 6yr/$133 ($22.166M per)

I hope we can lock him up cheaper than that, but that is probably realistic after the second half and postseason he had.

filihok
11-01-2013, 01:48 AM
Here's my guess on Lester's extension:

$10M signing bonus
$13M for '14
$22M * 4 ('15-'18)
$2M buyout or $22M ('19)

5yr/$113M ($22.6M per) or 6yr/$133 ($22.166M per)
Clay Davenport does projections on his website.

Lots of people do projections, but one of the cooler things about Davenport's is that he does projections 6 years into the future. This allows to do some interesting things like, speculate about contracts.

Lester (http://www.claydavenport.com/pt/LESTER19840107A.shtml) is projected for the following

2014 32 runs above replacement
2015 28 runs
2016 23 runs
2017 26 runs
2018 19 runs
2019 16 runs

That's a total of 144 runs above replacement for the 6 seasons. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So, 144 runs is about 14-15 WAR. 1 WAR is currently worth about $6 million. So, 15 WAR would be worth (15*6) about $90 million.


Your 6 year $133 million contract looks pretty high in comparison.


I will say that projections are certainly not an exact science and that I was surprised by how pessimistic Lester's projections were. I wouldn't be surprised if he outperformed them. Lester had 48 runs above replacement last season and has averaged 40 over his last 3 and 47 over his last 5. The projection is weighing Lester's poor 2012 pretty heavily.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 06:23 AM
Clay Davenport does projections on his website.

Lots of people do projections, but one of the cooler things about Davenport's is that he does projections 6 years into the future. This allows to do some interesting things like, speculate about contracts.

Lester (http://www.claydavenport.com/pt/LESTER19840107A.shtml) is projected for the following

2014 32 runs above replacement
2015 28 runs
2016 23 runs
2017 26 runs
2018 19 runs
2019 16 runs

That's a total of 144 runs above replacement for the 6 seasons. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So, 144 runs is about 14-15 WAR. 1 WAR is currently worth about $6 million. So, 15 WAR would be worth (15*6) about $90 million.


Your 6 year $133 million contract looks pretty high in comparison.


I will say that projections are certainly not an exact science and that I was surprised by how pessimistic Lester's projections were. I wouldn't be surprised if he outperformed them. Lester had 48 runs above replacement last season and has averaged 40 over his last 3 and 47 over his last 5. The projection is weighing Lester's poor 2012 pretty heavily.

Yup. The projection probably doesn't figure that Lester is a lefty ace which is a very rare thing. He also pitches ~207 innings every year like clock work. He also had a string of 3 years in a row when he was a top 5 SP in the AL (9th the 4th year), and he has great playoff records, capped by historic WS numbers?

Also a LOT of his bad games/numbers over the past few years are tied to Salty, which CD's formula is also not picking up. Here:

2011:

Salty: GS: 23 IP: 145.2 ERA: 3.77
JTek: GS: 7 IP: 40.0 ERA: 2.48 (old man)

2012:

Salty: GS: 19 IP: 107.1 ERA: 5.62
Shop: GS: 7 IP: 48.2 ERA: 3.70
Lavrn: GS: 7 IP: 49.1 ERA: 4.01 (rookie)

Even though Salty did well this year, when it counted, the Sox went with Ross. Thankfully they see what several of us here have seen for a few years. Namely that Salty is a poor defensive catcher in the areas of game calling, throwing out base runners, and framing. Hopefully for Lester it looks like Salty's days here are done. Does CD factor in inferior catchers?

Lester also had 4 different pitching coaches the last 4 years and the middle two were not very effective. CD have anything for that?

Lester's problems have always been tied to frustration with umps. For instance when he debuted, if his name was Maddux and he was in the NL, his 1 inch off the plate stuff would have been rewarded far more than he was as a rookie in the AL. He's been seen by quite a few umps as showing them up - and it's too bad that the childish umps have frequently tweaked Lester by not giving him pitches they do routinely to other SP's not on their **** list.

RedSoxtober
11-01-2013, 03:51 PM
Here's my guess on Lester's extension:

$10M signing bonus
$13M for '14
$22M * 4 ('15-'18)
$2M buyout or $22M ('19)

5yr/$113M ($22.6M per) or 6yr/$133 ($22.166M per)

Can I tweak that a little? What if we (a) pick up his option, (b) negotiate an extension that gets announced at the ring ceremony with the basic parameters that you outlined?

By doing that, the $9M signing bonus could be payable immediately and Clay earns $22M in 2014 BUT, because of the timing, the signing bonus becomes calculated as part of the guaranteed contract towards 2015. The AAV jumps to just under $25M but only after Lackey's AAV drops to league minimum.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 03:57 PM
Can I tweak that a little? What if we (a) pick up his option, (b) negotiate an extension that gets announced at the ring ceremony with the basic parameters that you outlined?

By doing that, the $9M signing bonus could be payable immediately and Clay earns $22M in 2014 BUT, because of the timing, the signing bonus becomes calculated as part of the guaranteed contract towards 2015. The AAV jumps to just under $25M but only after Lackey's AAV drops to league minimum.

That's right, you pointed that out a couple of years back... sure, fine with me, makes total sense.

bagwell368
11-01-2013, 08:24 PM
Sox took the option for $13M, step one.

filihok
11-03-2013, 01:56 PM
Yup. The projection probably doesn't figure that Lester is a lefty ace which is a very rare thing.
I'm not sure if the projection factors in handedness.
His aceness is based off of his performance. So, yes, his his performance is included in the projection.


He also pitches ~207 innings every year like clock work. He also had a string of 3 years in a row when he was a top 5 SP in the AL (9th the 4th year), and he has great playoff records, capped by historic WS numbers?
What's the question here?
Or are these just statements? Lester's prior regular season performance is the basis for the projection.


Also a LOT of his bad games/numbers over the past few years are tied to Salty, which CD's formula is also not picking up. Here:

2011:

Salty: GS: 23 IP: 145.2 ERA: 3.77
JTek: GS: 7 IP: 40.0 ERA: 2.48 (old man)

2012:

Salty: GS: 19 IP: 107.1 ERA: 5.62
Shop: GS: 7 IP: 48.2 ERA: 3.70
Lavrn: GS: 7 IP: 49.1 ERA: 4.01 (rookie)

Does CD factor in inferior catchers?

A couple of points here
1) I noticed that you didn't include the 2013 numers
Salty: 143.3 IP, 3.58 ERA
Ross: 70 IP, 4.11 ERA

2) If you are arguing that Lester's performance is heavily tied to his catcher, then why should Lester be rewarded for that performance. Shouldn't it go to the catcher? Or, at least, be split among the two?


Lester also had 4 different pitching coaches the last 4 years and the middle two were not very effective. CD have anything for that?
No. In what way should it be accounted for?

RedSoxtober
11-04-2013, 10:10 AM
2) If you are arguing that Lester's performance is heavily tied to his catcher, then why should Lester be rewarded for that performance. Shouldn't it go to the catcher? Or, at least, be split among the two?

<Lester also had 4 different pitching coaches the last 4 years and the middle two were not very effective. CD have anything for that?>

No. In what way should it be accounted for?
I think that you're missing the overarching point -- the projections are flawed. Davenport bases his 6yr projection HEAVILY on the most recent season's performance with relatively minor adjustments based on age. That's a pretty flawed approach because it completely ignores sometimes significant environmental factors like these.

Since you've really not been around (at least contributing) here much it's worth being aware that Salty's generally negative impact on pitching performance is a discussion that's run at least the last two years. The switch from Salty to Ross in the WS should be the only exhibit needed to see the dramatic impact that a good game caller can have harnessing the talent a pitcher has.

It may very well be that factors such as these are why "many people do projections" for only one year. It's impossible to see these factors five or six years in the future but it's easy to adjust for them over a few months.

bagwell368
11-04-2013, 03:37 PM
I'm not sure if the projection factors in handedness.

It should. The market certainly awards for it.


Or are these just statements? Lester's prior regular season performance is the basis for the projection.

Yet DON'T seem to factor in a poor battery mate - in particular one that's clearly below league average - by measurement or observation.


1) I noticed that you didn't include the 2013 numers

I noticed that you didn't take into account this statement I made in the quoted post:

"Even though Salty did well this year, when it counted, the Sox went with Ross <in the playoffs>." BTW, including the 2013 numbers, Salty was still well below the other catchers he worked with on the Sox as a group.


2) If you are arguing that Lester's performance is heavily tied to his catcher, then why should Lester be rewarded for that performance. Shouldn't it go to the catcher? Or, at least, be split among the two?

You're the one throwing around projections. Maybe you should ask the author about that. All I have to do is prove that Lester worked with a notoriously poor catcher, and it hurt him. It's not my job to repair a metric I didn't design. I do suppose you've heard the notion of "league average" - if that dimension isn't added - pro - con - or neutral - than how good can the metric be? All I have to say from my standpoint as a fan and x pitching coach is that Salty is inferior to the very declined Varitek, the good mid career Shoppach, and the very young and not overly strong Lavarnway as a group.


No. In what way should it be accounted for?

Yes, the problem with a totally metric driven opinion or projection or in this case - both. It/you can't account for that (churn of coaches), yet anybody that actually has played or paid close attention can either remember or reasonably project the sort of problems that arise from this situation.

I've looked at a lot of projections over the years, and I've never been impressed with them in any dimension. This one doesn't change my mind.

filihok
11-05-2013, 02:44 AM
I think that you're missing the overarching point -- the projections are flawed. Davenport bases his 6yr projection HEAVILY on the most recent season's performance with relatively minor adjustments based on age. That's a pretty flawed approach because it completely ignores sometimes significant environmental factors like these.
I don't believe that I'm missing the point at all.

Projections attempt to isolate a player's talent and build the projection off of that.

If Lester's performance, not talent, is heavily affected by the catcher, then that should not be accounted for in Lester's projection - it should be accounted for in the catcher's.




It should. The market certainly awards for it.
???
What?
What do projections have to do with the market?
If you have evidence that pitcher handedness affects salary I'd like to see it, because I am, currently, unaware that that is the case.


Yet DON'T seem to factor in a poor battery mate - in particular one that's clearly below league average - by measurement or observation.
See my response to RedSoxtober, above.



I noticed that you didn't take into account this statement I made in the quoted post:
Did you take into account Salty's improvement?


"Even though Salty did well this year, when it counted, the Sox went with Ross <in the playoffs>." BTW, including the 2013 numbers, Salty was still well below the other catchers he worked with on the Sox as a group.
Well below?
Red Sox' ERA with Salty 3.86 and OPS against of .712
Red Sox' ERA without Salty 3.64 and OPS against of .702




You're the one throwing around projections. Maybe you should ask the author about that. All I have to do is prove that Lester worked with a notoriously poor catcher, and it hurt him. It's not my job to repair a metric I didn't design. I do suppose you've heard the notion of "league average" - if that dimension isn't added - pro - con - or neutral - than how good can the metric be? All I have to say from my standpoint as a fan and x pitching coach is that Salty is inferior to the very declined Varitek, the good mid career Shoppach, and the very young and not overly strong Lavarnway as a group.
You're the one dismissing the projections.
I've stated why the projections should not include the catcher. Now it's up to you to indicate why they should if you want to invalidate them.
You haven't yet proven that Lester's performance was hurt by working with a poor catcher.
But, this is moot since Lester's performance should be attributed to him and any effect by the catcher should be contributed to the catcher.


Yes, the problem with a totally metric driven opinion or projection or in this case - both. It/you can't account for that (churn of coaches), yet anybody that actually has played or paid close attention can either remember or reasonably project the sort of problems that arise from this situation.
So, how much has the change in coaches effected Lester?


I've looked at a lot of projections over the years, and I've never been impressed with them in any dimension. This one doesn't change my mind.
Does that include your own?
How to you feel Lester would perform next year with Salty as the primary catcher? How about with Ross/Lavarnway?

bagwell368
11-05-2013, 10:01 AM
Projections attempt to isolate a player's talent and build the projection off of that.

Questions: Are we looking at corrected stats? Is CD looking at catchers?


If Lester's performance, not talent, is heavily affected by the catcher, then that should not be accounted for in Lester's projection - it should be accounted for in the catcher's.

All catching performance (at any level of quality) ought to be figured in with pitchers numbers - assuming one is trying to arrive at the most accurate numbers possible.


???
What?
What do projections have to do with the market?

You started your participation in this thread with this statement

[INDENT]"That's a total of 144 runs above replacement for the 6 seasons. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So, 144 runs is about 14-15 WAR. 1 WAR is currently worth about $6 million. So, 15 WAR would be worth (15*6) about $90 million.

Your 6 year $133 million contract looks pretty high in comparison.[/QUOTE]

You've made a statement of value right there using a incomplete metric.


If you have evidence that pitcher handedness affects salary I'd like to see it, because I am, currently, unaware that that is the case.

In 2006 the article "Do Southpaws Get a Fair Shake in MLB? Part 2: Pitchers" at Sabernomics.com said in part:

For the starters sample, lefties earn about $233,000 more than equally skilled right-handed pitchers...Again, the relationship is not statistically significant, but it’s close, with a t-statistic of 1.55 (p-value of 0.12). This is about 7.5%.

They then made a misstep with RP's by not categorizing closers, set-up guys, LOOGY and ROOGY specialists - but shoving them into a single category. There are few lefty closers, and a lot of LOOGY's around - so the value given in the piece RHRP paid > LHRP is wrong since we can all name a number of marginal LHP's in pen's but few RHP.

Also I studied the draft of the top 100 players very carefully in 2009-2011, and the amount of LHP drafted vs the percent of LHP in the Majors was way out of whack in favor of LHP over RHP and all position players with only Catchers and SS (who often become 2B and 3B) even coming close to the dominance of LHP in the draft. Clearly GM's value LHP very highly.


Well below?
Red Sox' ERA with Salty 3.86 and OPS against of .712
Red Sox' ERA without Salty 3.64 and OPS against of .702

Salty was the only C the Sox had that was there all 3 years, Lavarnway was and is a kid, Tek was hanging on by his fingertips and Shoppach was dealt before he could have a major impact on the numbers. The fact that it took Salty into his third year to do well with Lester shouldn't be seen as triumph, but the overdue performance with a clear ace 60' 6" away from him.


I've stated why the projections should not include the catcher.

Less than convincing reasons.


Now it's up to you to indicate why they should if you want to invalidate them.

What projections? Using a weighing system over a 3 or 5 year period and considering the age of the player in the next season in light of what other SP's of that age/general performance have done? That's better than seat of the pants by a fan with little insight, but, there are factors not included in these sorts of projections. I.E. to me these sorts of projections (along with Bill James) are heuristics that gotten two or three spins, but they are lacking many fields of data that could change them dramatically - and I give them the respect that they are due - I.E. not much.


You haven't yet proven that Lester's performance was hurt by working with a poor catcher.

Why just Lester? It's axiomatic. Why not have Prince Fielder catch since he can hit better than most catchers... hmmm there then must be a number of factors making this a ridiculous solution - which it is.


But, this is moot since Lester's performance should be attributed to him and any effect by the catcher should be contributed to the catcher.

Than a P who worked with say Johnny Bench or Gary Carter in their prime get a boost, but those that worked with some of the worst defensive catchers should be punished? Well, that makes as much sense as saying we shouldn't EQ for hitters in Coors vs LAA for instance. Just because it hasn't been widely done does not render the need for it to be zero as you infer.



So, how much has the change in coaches effected Lester?

Go find other pitchers with as many years/innings or more as Lester than went through the same thing, and tell me.


Does that include your own?

I don't get paid money for mine.


How to you feel Lester would perform next year with Salty as the primary catcher? How about with Ross/Lavarnway?

I would prefer Ross/Lavarnway with Vazquez/or deal for a D minded catcher as possible back-ups if there is an injury or ineffectivness.

I would rather save the money not used on Lavarnway and spend it elsewhere. I believe the team would be better off and that Lester wouldn't be worse off (additionally AFAWK Salty just had his career year).

RedSoxtober
11-05-2013, 12:13 PM
I don't believe that I'm missing the point at all.

Projections attempt to isolate a player's talent and build the projection off of that.

If Lester's performance, not talent, is heavily affected by the catcher, then that should not be accounted for in Lester's projection - it should be accounted for in the catcher's.


Can you suggest to me some way in which a pitcher can pitch the game with talent but without a catcher? When you do that, I'll consider your assertion. Until then, it's a fairly baseless assertion on your part.

The only reason to suggest that you can extract individual talent from an inherently team-oriented aspect of the game like pitching is that you're trying to make projections (um, I mean defend the projections of Clay Davenport) over an extended period of time. Long term projections might be somewhat accurate for certain types of contributions such as a batting (with the assumption the batter stays within the same league) since those are primarily, but not completely, individual efforts.

Pitching doesn't work the same way. The very nature of pitching is an interaction between two players on the field. It is heavily influenced by the catcher, pitching coach, and manager. For example, a sinkerballer might not have good results with a catcher who's crappy blocking pitches because he might be reluctant to use his go to pitch in critical situations. That may be more mental than anything but it's a factor in his performance. So are decisions on how to attack certain hitters (usually a review of the lineup by the catcher, pitcher, and pitching coach) and philosophies on the running game (like when the Sox' manager opted to forgo the slide step and gave up tons of SB). A pitching coach, and sometimes a manager, can also greatly influence a pitcher's ability to correct mechanical flaws between starts. Do you attribute that to the coach or do you recognize that as the pitcher's talent properly delivered?

In the end your opinion on whether a catcher's (and PC's and Mgr's) influence should be attributed to the pitcher or catcher is moot. A realistic projection would have to be calculated (or recalculated) for a particular year that includes the "talent" of the pitcher and catcher to have an accurate approximation of production for that year. You cannot do that five or six years into the future because you cannot control enough variables.

filihok
11-05-2013, 03:14 PM
Questions: Are we looking at corrected stats? Is CD looking at catchers?



All catching performance (at any level of quality) ought to be figured in with pitchers numbers - assuming one is trying to arrive at the most accurate numbers possible.



You started your participation in this thread with this statement

[INDENT]"That's a total of 144 runs above replacement for the 6 seasons. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So, 144 runs is about 14-15 WAR. 1 WAR is currently worth about $6 million. So, 15 WAR would be worth (15*6) about $90 million.

Your 6 year $133 million contract looks pretty high in comparison.
You've made a statement of value right there using a incomplete metric.



In 2006 the article "Do Southpaws Get a Fair Shake in MLB? Part 2: Pitchers" at Sabernomics.com said in part:

For the starters sample, lefties earn about $233,000 more than equally skilled right-handed pitchers...Again, the relationship is not statistically significant, but it’s close, with a t-statistic of 1.55 (p-value of 0.12). This is about 7.5%.

They then made a misstep with RP's by not categorizing closers, set-up guys, LOOGY and ROOGY specialists - but shoving them into a single category. There are few lefty closers, and a lot of LOOGY's around - so the value given in the piece RHRP paid > LHRP is wrong since we can all name a number of marginal LHP's in pen's but few RHP.

Also I studied the draft of the top 100 players very carefully in 2009-2011, and the amount of LHP drafted vs the percent of LHP in the Majors was way out of whack in favor of LHP over RHP and all position players with only Catchers and SS (who often become 2B and 3B) even coming close to the dominance of LHP in the draft. Clearly GM's value LHP very highly.



Salty was the only C the Sox had that was there all 3 years, Lavarnway was and is a kid, Tek was hanging on by his fingertips and Shoppach was dealt before he could have a major impact on the numbers. The fact that it took Salty into his third year to do well with Lester shouldn't be seen as triumph, but the overdue performance with a clear ace 60' 6" away from him.



Less than convincing reasons.



What projections? Using a weighing system over a 3 or 5 year period and considering the age of the player in the next season in light of what other SP's of that age/general performance have done? That's better than seat of the pants by a fan with little insight, but, there are factors not included in these sorts of projections. I.E. to me these sorts of projections (along with Bill James) are heuristics that gotten two or three spins, but they are lacking many fields of data that could change them dramatically - and I give them the respect that they are due - I.E. not much.



Why just Lester? It's axiomatic. Why not have Prince Fielder catch since he can hit better than most catchers... hmmm there then must be a number of factors making this a ridiculous solution - which it is.



Than a P who worked with say Johnny Bench or Gary Carter in their prime get a boost, but those that worked with some of the worst defensive catchers should be punished? Well, that makes as much sense as saying we shouldn't EQ for hitters in Coors vs LAA for instance. Just because it hasn't been widely done does not render the need for it to be zero as you infer.




Go find other pitchers with as many years/innings or more as Lester than went through the same thing, and tell me.



I don't get paid money for mine.



I would prefer Ross/Lavarnway with Vazquez/or deal for a D minded catcher as possible back-ups if there is an injury or ineffectivness.

I would rather save the money not used on Lavarnway and spend it elsewhere. I believe the team would be better off and that Lester wouldn't be worse off (additionally AFAWK Salty just had his career year).




Can you suggest to me some way in which a pitcher can pitch the game with talent but without a catcher? When you do that, I'll consider your assertion. Until then, it's a fairly baseless assertion on your part.

The only reason to suggest that you can extract individual talent from an inherently team-oriented aspect of the game like pitching is that you're trying to make projections (um, I mean defend the projections of Clay Davenport) over an extended period of time. Long term projections might be somewhat accurate for certain types of contributions such as a batting (with the assumption the batter stays within the same league) since those are primarily, but not completely, individual efforts.

Pitching doesn't work the same way. The very nature of pitching is an interaction between two players on the field. It is heavily influenced by the catcher, pitching coach, and manager. For example, a sinkerballer might not have good results with a catcher who's crappy blocking pitches because he might be reluctant to use his go to pitch in critical situations. That may be more mental than anything but it's a factor in his performance. So are decisions on how to attack certain hitters (usually a review of the lineup by the catcher, pitcher, and pitching coach) and philosophies on the running game (like when the Sox' manager opted to forgo the slide step and gave up tons of SB). A pitching coach, and sometimes a manager, can also greatly influence a pitcher's ability to correct mechanical flaws between starts. Do you attribute that to the coach or do you recognize that as the pitcher's talent properly delivered?

In the end your opinion on whether a catcher's (and PC's and Mgr's) influence should be attributed to the pitcher or catcher is moot. A realistic projection would have to be calculated (or recalculated) for a particular year that includes the "talent" of the pitcher and catcher to have an accurate approximation of production for that year. You cannot do that five or six years into the future because you cannot control enough variables.
Ahh...the inability to see the forrest for the minutia

Davenport projects Kershaw to be better than Eric Stults next year. Any disagreements? I'll assume no. So we are in agreement that projections are neither crystal balls that provide perfect clarity into the future nor are they absolute random collections of numbers.

I'll also assume that you came to the conclusion that Kershaw will be more productive than Stults next year without benefit of knowing who their respective catchers and pitching coaches would be.


Are we in agreement that we can have an idea of a pitcher's future performance without knowing who the catcher is going to be and that that is what these projections attempt to do? Or should we continue on down ridiculous paths about whether or not pitchers throw to catchers?

RedSoxtober
11-05-2013, 04:27 PM
Ahh...the inability to see the forrest for the minutia

Davenport projects Kershaw to be better than Eric Stults next year. Any disagreements? I'll assume no. So we are in agreement that projections are neither crystal balls that provide perfect clarity into the future nor are they absolute random collections of numbers.

I'll also assume that you came to the conclusion that Kershaw will be more productive than Stults next year without benefit of knowing who their respective catchers and pitching coaches would be.


Are we in agreement that we can have an idea of a pitcher's future performance without knowing who the catcher is going to be and that that is what these projections attempt to do? Or should we continue on down ridiculous paths about whether or not pitchers throw to catchers?

It's a good thing that all we have to do is figure out whether a mid-20s dominant starter is going to better than a journeyman pitcher in his mid-30s because, you know, all those guys cost the same thing, right?

Oh, no, waaaiiiittt a minute. Your ENTIRE POINT was not just the relative better/worse argument but HOW MUCH BETTER based on EXTRAORDINARILY flawed projections. The argument that you made (not once, but twice, with the same introduction and same basis for finding value) was that a very specific expected performance led to a specific expected WAR which had some calculable value. That value is somewhere around $6M/WAR but may be adjusted upward to over $7M based on inflation.

In that direction, what impact would you guess that a difference of almost 1 run in ERA would make. Is a pitcher with a 3.24ERA likely to merit a greater value (via WAR, etc) than a pitcher with a 4.20ERA? Or if you like the SABR approach, how about the increase of 30% in HR/9 on FIP and it's impact on WAR? Because those are the differences between a decent catcher like Varitek/V-Mart and a poor receiver like Salty can have on a pitcher.

I'm sure that you doubt it. This is just minutia. That it can be demonstrated for Sox pitchers who work with Salty vs others such as
Lester with Varitek/V-Mart vs Salty
Lackey with Mathis/Napoli vs Salty
Buchholz with Kottaras/V-Mart/Shoppach vs Salty
Dice-K with Varitek vs Salty
Beckett with I-Rod/Varitek/Lo Duca vs Salty
Aceves with Cervelli/Varitek/Molina vs Salty
Bedard with Hernandez/Varitek vs Salty

Yes, I'm sure that a correlation that proves true with 90% of the pitchers who've started games for the Red Sox since Salty came to town is simply minutia that should be ignored when projecting future performance. I mean, 90% correlation is a pretty weak confidence interval, right?

Or maybe it's not minutia to acknowledge that a below-replacement-level catcher can negatively impact the expected performance of a pitcher. Perhaps I don't need to know a specific catcher but the caliber of catcher with whom a pitcher is likely to be matched. At least I may want to know that if I plan on placing an eight-figure value on a guy half a decade from now.

filihok
11-05-2013, 04:44 PM
It's a good thing that all we have to do is figure out whether a mid-20s dominant starter is going to better than a journeyman pitcher in his mid-30s because, you know, all those guys cost the same thing, right?
No, they don't cost the same thing.
Why don't they cost the same thing?

bagwell368
11-05-2013, 05:14 PM
Ahh...the inability to see the forrest for the minutia

Davenport projects Kershaw to be better than Eric Stults next year. Any disagreements? I'll assume no. So we are in agreement that projections are neither crystal balls that provide perfect clarity into the future nor are they absolute random collections of numbers.

I'll also assume that you came to the conclusion that Kershaw will be more productive than Stults next year without benefit of knowing who their respective catchers and pitching coaches would be.


Are we in agreement that we can have an idea of a pitcher's future performance without knowing who the catcher is going to be and that that is what these projections attempt to do? Or should we continue on down ridiculous paths about whether or not pitchers throw to catchers?

You propose that this is a proper answer to my quoted post (#105)? Sir, it's like playing 501 (darts) and planning on shooting for triple 20's and putting the dart 6" off the board below the 3.

Let me know when you are able or willing to answer.

filihok
11-05-2013, 05:42 PM
You propose that this is a proper answer to my quoted post (#105)?

Let me know when you are able or willing to answer.
Yes, I do.

If you'd like to sort through the unnecessary argumentativeness to find the questions you'd like answered, then I'll attempt answer them - I'm not inclined to do the sorting.

I will say the part about left-handed pitchers earning more was interesting. I'm curious if that still exists nearing a decade later.

RedSoxtober
11-06-2013, 10:52 AM
No, they don't cost the same thing.
Why don't they cost the same thing?
Because you suggested as such by your reductionist comparison of Kershaw to Stults. My response was pointing out that the question that YOU came here to argue was not "is Lester better than X" but "how much better is Lester than X four, five, and six years from now?" You attempted to answer this question from flawed projections over a six year window and use those flawed projections to estimate WAR (<= wins above replacement implies the "how much more" question) and then make one more leap to value.



I will say the part about left-handed pitchers earning more was interesting. I'm curious if that still exists nearing a decade later.
Do you think their relative scarcity has decreased in the last decade?

filihok
11-06-2013, 11:34 AM
Because you suggested as such by your reductionist comparison of Kershaw to Stults.
Kershaw and Stults don't cost the same thing because I suggested as such?
What on earth are you talking about?

Why do Major League teams pay certain players more than they pay other players?
Why do Major League teams give certain players long-term contracts and not others?

I believe it is because they have certain expectations of future performance and that some player project to have better performance than others. Do you disagree with that?



Do you think their relative scarcity has decreased in the last decade?
I don't know.
Let me check.

In 2013 47826 of 184872 PA's were against left-handed pitching. That's 25.9%
In 2006 44982 of 188071 PA's were against left-handed pitching. That's 23.9%

It appears that, if anything, left-handed pitchers are pitching slightly more now than then.

RedSoxtober
11-06-2013, 12:10 PM
Kershaw and Stults don't cost the same thing because I suggested as such?
What on earth are you talking about?
You reduced a discussion of value to a question of who was better. The implication is that we can just pick the better guy -- that deciding who is better is all that matters. The question in view, however, is HOW MUCH better. That's the only way to fix value.


Why do Major League teams pay certain players more than they pay other players?
Why do Major League teams give certain players long-term contracts and not others?

I believe it is because they have certain expectations of future performance and that some player project to have better performance than others. Do you disagree with that?
Of course not. I've taken issue with the ridiculous way you've assigned monetary value to players based on flawed projections.



In 2013 47826 of 184872 PA's were against left-handed pitching. That's 25.9%
In 2006 44982 of 188071 PA's were against left-handed pitching. That's 23.9%

It appears that, if anything, left-handed pitchers are pitching slightly more now than then.
A measure of the number of pitches thrown is not the same thing as the number of pitchers throwing those pitches.

bagwell368
11-06-2013, 03:45 PM
In response to post #107 (filihok) in response to improved parsing:

Questions:

Q. Is CD looking at corrected stats? I.E. park corrections.

Q. Is CD including catcher data in his projections? My opinion is: All catching performance (at any level of quality) ought to be figured in with pitchers numbers - assuming one is trying to arrive at the most accurate numbers possible. Q. Do you agree or disagree?

Q. You started your participation in this thread with this statement


"That's a total of 144 runs above replacement for the 6 seasons. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So, 144 runs is about 14-15 WAR. 1 WAR is currently worth about $6 million. So, 15 WAR would be worth (15*6) about $90 million.

Your 6 year $133 million contract looks pretty high in comparison.

Q. You've made a statement of value right there using an incomplete metric. So why do you type ???? when I bring up value?

Data Point: In 2006 the article "Do Southpaws Get a Fair Shake in MLB? Part 2: Pitchers" at Sabernomics.com said in part:

For the starters sample, lefties earn about $233,000 more than equally skilled right-handed pitchers...Again, the relationship is not statistically significant, but it’s close, with a t-statistic of 1.55 (p-value of 0.12). This is about 7.5%.

My Opinion: They then made a misstep with RP's by not categorizing closers, set-up guys, LOOGY and ROOGY specialists - but shoving them into a single category. There are few lefty closers, and a lot of LOOGY's around - so the value given in the piece RHRP paid > LHRP is wrong since we can all name a number of marginal LHP's in pen's but few RHP.

My Observation: Also I studied the draft of the top 100 players very carefully in 2009-2011, and the amount of LHP drafted vs the percent of LHP in the Majors was way out of whack in favor of LHP over RHP and all position players with only Catchers and SS (who often become 2B and 3B) even coming close to the dominance of LHP in the draft. Clearly GM's value LHP very highly. Q. Do you disagree or agree?

My Observation: Salty was the only C the Sox had that was there all 3 years, Lavarnway was and is a kid, Tek was hanging on by his fingertips and Shoppach was dealt before he could have a major impact on the numbers. The fact that it took Salty into his third year to do well with Lester shouldn't be seen as a triumph, but the overdue performance with a clear ace 60' 6" away from him. Q. Do you have any comments here?

Your opinion: I've stated why the projections should not include the catcher.

My comment: Less than convincing reasons. Q. Please make a better argument.

My opinion: Projections? Using a weighing system over a 3 or 5 year period and considering the age of the player in the next season in light of what other SP's of that age/general performance have done? That's better than seat of the pants by a fan with little insight, but, there are factors not included in these sorts of projections. I.E. to me these sorts of projections (along with Bill James) are heuristics that have gotten two or three spins, but they are lacking many fields of data that could change them dramatically - and I give them the respect that they are due - I.E. not much. Q. Do you have any defense here?

My Opinion: Why just Lester? It's axiomatic.

Q. Why not have Prince Fielder catch since he can hit better than most catchers?

My Opinion: Obviously catching skills are important, and they are not all equal among catchers. Q. Do you disagree?

Q. So in effect you are saying that a P who worked with say Johnny Bench or Gary Carter in their prime get an UNCREDITED boost to their performance, but those that worked with some of the worst defensive catchers in MLB history should be punished?

My Opinion: Well, if you don't comment that makes as much sense as saying we shouldn't EQ for hitters in Coors vs LAA for instance. Q. Just because it hasn't been widely done does not render the need for it to be zero as you infer - does it. Q. Given this guiding attitude, how did Sabermetrics ever get off the ground?

My Opinion: I would prefer Ross/Lavarnway with Vazquez/or deal for a D minded catcher as possible back-ups if there is an injury or ineffectiveness.

I would rather save the money not used on Lavarnway and spend it elsewhere. I believe the team would be better off and that Lester wouldn't be worse off (additionally AFAWK Salty just had his career year).

filihok
11-07-2013, 07:18 AM
I
Q. Is CD looking at corrected stats? I.E. park corrections.
Yes. I believe so.



Q. Is CD including catcher data in his projections?
That depends upon what you mean. I do not think that catcher data is included the way that you would like it to be. I do think that it is included in that the team's total defense is included.


My opinion is: All catching performance (at any level of quality) ought to be figured in with pitchers numbers - assuming one is trying to arrive at the most accurate numbers possible. Q. Do you agree or disagree?
I disagree. I would prefer defense independent projections for pitchers for a number of reasons.


Q. You started your participation in this thread with this statement


"That's a total of 144 runs above replacement for the 6 seasons. 10 runs is roughly 1 WAR. So, 144 runs is about 14-15 WAR. 1 WAR is currently worth about $6 million. So, 15 WAR would be worth (15*6) about $90 million.

Your 6 year $133 million contract looks pretty high in comparison.

Q. You've made a statement of value right there using an incomplete metric. So why do you type ???? when I bring up value?
Because I was confused about what you were talking about.
I was unaware of the information that you posted regarding left-handed pitchers getting paid slightly more than right-handed pitchers.

Also, I feel that market value can be determined using projections, but I do not feel that market value should be included in projections - players are paid based upon their production, players' production is not based upon what they are paid.



Data Point: In 2006 the article "Do Southpaws Get a Fair Shake in MLB? Part 2: Pitchers" at Sabernomics.com said in part:

For the starters sample, lefties earn about $233,000 more than equally skilled right-handed pitchers...Again, the relationship is not statistically significant, but it’s close, with a t-statistic of 1.55 (p-value of 0.12). This is about 7.5%.

My Opinion: They then made a misstep with RP's by not categorizing closers, set-up guys, LOOGY and ROOGY specialists - but shoving them into a single category. There are few lefty closers, and a lot of LOOGY's around - so the value given in the piece RHRP paid > LHRP is wrong since we can all name a number of marginal LHP's in pen's but few RHP.

My Observation: Also I studied the draft of the top 100 players very carefully in 2009-2011, and the amount of LHP drafted vs the percent of LHP in the Majors was way out of whack in favor of LHP over RHP and all position players with only Catchers and SS (who often become 2B and 3B) even coming close to the dominance of LHP in the draft. Clearly GM's value LHP very highly. Q. Do you disagree or agree?
Do I agree that GM's value LHP's very highly? I haven't really thought about it. I suppose, if the information that you posted above about the number of left-handed pitchers taken in the draft is correct, I agree.

But, I don't think that Lester's left-handedness should affect his projections.
If two (one left-handed and one right-handed) pitchers had identical past performance (with all factors being equal (park effects, defense, etc) then I feel that their projections should also be identical.



My Observation: Salty was the only C the Sox had that was there all 3 years, Lavarnway was and is a kid, Tek was hanging on by his fingertips and Shoppach was dealt before he could have a major impact on the numbers. The fact that it took Salty into his third year to do well with Lester shouldn't be seen as a triumph, but the overdue performance with a clear ace 60' 6" away from him. Q. Do you have any comments here?
I'm still not convinced that Saltalacchia is the reason for Lester's struggles.
It's possible that he played some part in it, but how can we quantify how much?



Your opinion: I've stated why the projections should not include the catcher.

My comment: Less than convincing reasons. Q. Please make a better argument.
I've restated them above.
I'll try to state them very concisely here.
A poor defensive team doesn't make a pitcher less talented - even if it makes his performance (in things like ERA, hits allowed, etc) look worse.
A poor defensive catcher doesn't make a pitcher less talented - even if it makes his performance look worse.

Now, you may say that it is hypocritical to include things like park factors in a projection and not include things like defense. I agree.

I'd prefer 2 projections - a contextual projection, and a non-contextual projection.


My opinion: Projections? Using a weighing system over a 3 or 5 year period and considering the age of the player in the next season in light of what other SP's of that age/general performance have done? That's better than seat of the pants by a fan with little insight, but, there are factors not included in these sorts of projections. I.E. to me these sorts of projections (along with Bill James) are heuristics that have gotten two or three spins, but they are lacking many fields of data that could change them dramatically - and I give them the respect that they are due - I.E. not much. Q. Do you have any defense here?
I don't need any 'defense'.
I'll say that I disagree and feel that systematic projections like those by STEAMER, Clay Davenport, ZiPS, MARCEL, PECOTA, etc are much better than those made by fans with little insight.

I'd also say that using this projections in conjunction with insight, scouting, etc would give a more accurate projection.

For example, a projection drawing on last year's production for a player who played with an injury will likely underrate the player (assuming the player is healed). Having that insight is valuable.



My Opinion: Why just Lester? It's axiomatic.

Q. Why not have Prince Fielder catch since he can hit better than most catchers?
Because he'd be a terrible defensive catcher. He'd likely allow more runs through his defense as compared to the average catcher than his bat would produce above what an average catcher would.


My Opinion: Obviously catching skills are important, and they are not all equal among catchers. Q. Do you disagree?
I absolutely agree.


Q. So in effect you are saying that a P who worked with say Johnny Bench or Gary Carter in their prime get an UNCREDITED boost to their performance, but those that worked with some of the worst defensive catchers in MLB history should be punished?
No. I'm trying to say the opposite.
Pitchers should be judged on their performance sans the catcher as much as that is possible.



My Opinion: Well, if you don't comment that makes as much sense as saying we shouldn't EQ for hitters in Coors vs LAA for instance. Q. Just because it hasn't been widely done does not render the need for it to be zero as you infer - does it. Q. Given this guiding attitude, how did Sabermetrics ever get off the ground?
See above


My Opinion: I would prefer Ross/Lavarnway with Vazquez/or deal for a D minded catcher as possible back-ups if there is an injury or ineffectiveness.

I would rather save the money not used on Lavarnway and spend it elsewhere. I believe the team would be better off and that Lester wouldn't be worse off (additionally AFAWK Salty just had his career year).
My opinion. Lester would be the same. Lester's performance would be worse.

bagwell368
11-07-2013, 04:05 PM
I do not think that catcher data is included the way that you would like it to be. I do think that it is included in that the team's total defense is included.

Total defense of course doesn't differentiate catchers, so yes, I'm not thrilled about that.


I would prefer defense independent projections for pitchers for a number of reasons.

Stats like FIP and DERA do a good job of that when thinking of the game as a whole, but the catcher/pitcher interaction has nothing to do with how much range the SS or CF has.


Also, I feel that market value can be determined using projections, but I do not feel that market value should be included in projections

But when a GM has a specific major hole at a position of extreme scarcity (say ace LHSP or LHH CF with plus CS% and +10 or better UZR/150), the number that such a player will get in a specific year will be warped compared to what the projection value might be in a neutral env. When one looks at say all the teams in a Division, and the available FA's - one has to figure in scarcity, among other things. A projection can't help answer those questions in of itself.


players are paid based upon their production

In part, but not in whole.


But, I don't think that Lester's left-handedness should affect his projections.

Of course not. We don't put the cart before the horse, but, once the projection is set, than market factors must be considered, in order to project an actual real life offer - which is the work product I care about, the projection being a part (an important part) of the staging needed to arrive at the work product.


If two (one left-handed and one right-handed) pitchers had identical past performance (with all factors being equal (park effects, defense, etc) then I feel that their projections should also be identical.

Sure, but the price paid is liable not to be equal. Scarcity of resources plays a part. Reputation, coaches and x teammate comments, police records, etc.


I'm still not convinced that Saltalacchia is the reason for Lester's struggles.
It's possible that he played some part in it, but how can we quantify how much?

Adding in '13 cushions the blow of Salty's numbers. The stand alone '11 and '12 numbers are fairly stark. Now one thing those records don't have is park corrections and defensive independent ERA. The sample size might be small enough that a dramatic game or two could have really swung things around. We also don't know if Lester was tired, had a stomach bug, whatever.

For me, the fill in was watching many of these starts, and having an above average appreciation of what good catching is. Salty didn't impress me as a good catcher - perhaps not as bad as his 5.62 ERA one year with Lester, but not as good as this year with Lester. BTW if we factor in the post season numbers this year, we have Ross's ERA w/ Lester at 3.34, below Salty's 3.51.


A poor defensive team doesn't make a pitcher less talented - even if it makes his performance (in things like ERA, hits allowed, etc) look worse.

I figured that out in 1971.


Now, you may say that it is hypocritical to include things like park factors in a projection and not include things like defense. I agree.

If reliable numbers are available they should be used, I was a metrics/process/quality centered software eng for almost 30 years, and I'd tan someone's backside for not including reliable data when available.


I'll say that I disagree and feel that systematic projections like those by STEAMER, Clay Davenport, ZiPS, MARCEL, PECOTA, etc are much better than those made by fans with little insight.

14 year olds, and dads that stopped playing at age 12, and watch 15 games a year with a room full of guys - yeah 100% correct. But guys that have scouted, or coached, or played - and in particular have no horse in the race or the ability to let homer connections go? Not as clear.


I'd also say that using this projections in conjunction with insight, scouting, etc would give a more accurate projection.

Gold star.


For example, a projection drawing on last year's production for a player who played with an injury will likely underrate the player (assuming the player is healed). Having that insight is valuable.

Right.


My opinion. Lester would be the same. Lester's performance would be worse.

Sure, but given his performance in parts of '11 and '12 we have fans that wanted to dump the guy. I just like holding players responsible for what they are responsible for, and not what others are responsible for.

OK, we don't agree on everything, but, this is a nuanced and well expressed post. Now if you'll take some friendly advice, move away from the Brent Spiner 1st year 'Data' and go for the later more experiential version, I think people will be a lot more receptive to that.

RedSoxtober
11-07-2013, 05:46 PM
I'm still not convinced that Saltalacchia is the reason for Lester's struggles.
It's possible that he played some part in it, but how can we quantify how much?
How about by comparing Lester's performance with other catchers over the same periods during which he was also pitching to Saltalamacchia? That's almost as perfect an experiment as you could create in MLB.

That's also the long list of comparisons that I posted the other day. Salty loses by 0.5-0.95 ERA in almost every comparison.

filihok
11-09-2013, 12:28 PM
How about by comparing Lester's performance with other catchers over the same periods during which he was also pitching to Saltalamacchia?
How about it?
2013 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2013#catch)
Lavarnway 4.55 ERA
Salty 3.86
Ross 3.12
Right in the middle

2012 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2012#catch)
Lavarnway 5.75
Salty 4.84
Shoppach 3.77
Right in the middle
*Guillermo Quiroz' 2 inning sample omitted.

2011 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2011#catch)
Salty 4.62
Lavarnway 4.39
V-teck 3.57
Worst of the 3

2010 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2010)
Molina 6.88
Salty 4.33
V-Mart 4.28
V-Teck 4.05
Brown 4.04
Cash 3.73
Back of the pack

What conclusions can we draw from this?
In 2010 and 2011 pitchers performed worse with Salty on the mound than they typically did with other Red Sox catchers.
More recently, in 2012 and 2013, pitchers performed more middle of the pack than they typically did with other Red Sox catchers.


That's almost as perfect an experiment as you could create in MLB.
Is it?
There's a number of flaws. It appears that you believe you are very good at, or enjoy, pointing out the flaws in statistics so I'll leave it to you to point out the flaws in this one.
I'll list one to get you started.
In 2013 of any Red Sox pitcher who pitched over 70 innnigs, Uehara had the lowest ERA and Dempster had the highest.
Salty caught 72% of Uehara's innings (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ueharko01&year=2013&t=p#catch) and only 60% of Dempster's (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=dempsry01&year=2013&t=p#catch).

Catching a higher percentage of a dominant relievers innings than those of a so-so starter is going to lower a catchers' ERA against.

I'm sure you can think of even more reasons that a catcher's ERA against is a flawed metric for measuring catcher performance.

bagwell368
11-09-2013, 05:00 PM
How about it?
2013 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2013#catch)
Lavarnway 4.55 ERA
Salty 3.86
Ross 3.12
Right in the middle - not if you add in the playoff records, Ross goes well down, and AGAIN Salties ERA is BELOW the team average 4 YEARS in a ROW!

2012 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2012#catch)
Lavarnway 5.75 IP: 219 (very young catcher - 15.2% of the years innings)
Salty 4.84 - 59% of teams innings, and worse than the 4.70 ERA of the Sox team, even with Lavarnway and Quiroz added.
Shoppach 3.77
Right in the middle (not really look at the team average - below right in the middle)
*Guillermo Quiroz' 2 inning sample omitted.

2011 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2011#catch)
Salty 4.62 IP: 856
Lavarnway 4.39 ROOKIE PITCHER IP: 23.2
V-teck 3.57 IP: 574.2
Worst of the 3 - 58.9% of the years innings as well

2010 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2010)
Molina 6.88
Salty 4.33 - not many innings, but as the other 3 years above, below the team ERA average.
V-Mart 4.28
V-Teck 4.05
Brown 4.04
Cash 3.73
Back of the pack

What conclusions can we draw from this?
In 2010 and 2011 pitchers performed worse with Salty on the mound than they typically did with other Red Sox catchers.
More recently, in 2012 and 2013, pitchers performed more middle of the pack than they typically did with other Red Sox catchers.

Salty's ERA per season (including playoffs) was higher than the Sox staff ERA of that season, even with the AAAA Lavarnway worked in. Looking at the catchers with over 410 ML innings (as we should, since they've all "made it", and Salty is about to make some big bags full of money)


There's a number of flaws.

Right. By just listing each catcher but not IP you've rendered by tables unusable if not downright misleading.


It appears that you believe you are very good at, or enjoy, pointing out the flaws in statistics so I'll leave it to you to point out the flaws in this one.

See above.


I'm sure you can think of even more reasons that a catcher's ERA against is a flawed metric for measuring catcher performance.

Let's start by not ignoring the post season. Then lets list the teams aggregate ERA instead of a foolish "list" of names and ERA's w/o the innings pitched.

win red sox
11-09-2013, 06:30 PM
If salty leaves via free agency and lester has a terrible 2014 can we still blame salty? maybe we can blame ross and Lav's. But no matter what let's don't blame lester and his mechanics or the way he has a meltdown if he doesn't get a borderline call.

bagwell368
11-09-2013, 07:04 PM
If salty leaves via free agency and lester has a terrible 2014 can we still blame salty? maybe we can blame ross and Lav's. But no matter what let's don't blame lester and his mechanics or the way he has a meltdown if he doesn't get a borderline call.

Sure. Right after you get on your knees and thank him personally for the Sox winning the WS.

filihok
11-09-2013, 09:02 PM
Salty's ERA per season (including playoffs) was higher than the Sox staff ERA of that season, even with the AAAA Lavarnway worked in. Looking at the catchers with over 410 ML innings (as we should, since they've all "made it", and Salty is about to make some big bags full of money)



Right. By just listing each catcher but not IP you've rendered by tables unusable if not downright misleading.



See above.



Let's start by not ignoring the post season. Then lets list the teams aggregate ERA instead of a foolish "list" of names and ERA's w/o the innings pitched.
Sure, add in the post season. I left it out simply for the ease of collecting the data.

It was RedSoxtober that suggested measure Saltalamacchia's catcher ERA vs the catcher ERA's of other Red Sox catchers

How about by comparing Lester's performance with other catchers over the same periods during which he was also pitching to Saltalamacchia? That's almost as perfect an experiment as you could create in MLB.
If you have a problem with that methodology, as you should, then you should take that up with him, not with me.

In fact, I, I thought, quite clearly expressed that this was poor method of trying to determine Saltalamacchia's performance relative to other Red Sox catchers.


I believe you are showing a bit of bias. First, but directing your complaints about RedSoxtober's experiment towards me.
Secondly you point out that Lavarnway was a rookie in 2011 and a 'very young catcher' in 2012 but do not mention that in 2010 Saltalamacchia was new to the Red Sox organization and Lester.

bagwell368
11-09-2013, 10:16 PM
Sure, add in the post season. I left it out simply for the ease of collecting the data.

It was RedSoxtober that suggested measure Saltalamacchia's catcher ERA vs the catcher ERA's of other Red Sox catchers

Nothing wrong with that idea at all, the Lester only comparison had run its course.


If you have a problem with that methodology, as you should, then you should take that up with him, not with me.

I believe it's you that came up with the "high/medium/low" status per season, and also you that left out the innings pitched. Anyone that read my prior post even casually wouldn't fail to notice that those are the issues I had with your post.


In fact, I, I thought, quite clearly expressed that this was poor method of trying to determine Saltalamacchia's performance relative to other Red Sox catchers.

What you expressed is the wrong take on the data in your conclusion. You were in charge of the format of the data, so then your conclusion was wrong based on your faulty extraction of the correct data.


I believe you are showing a bit of bias. First, but directing your complaints about RedSoxtober's experiment towards me.

No friend, RST and I frequently cross swords, and we frequently agree. Neither one of us has a problem in letting the other know when there has been a mistake. I believe this post along with a few others show you have a major problems with being collegial.


Secondly you point out that Lavarnway was a rookie in 2011 and a 'very young catcher' in 2012 but do not mention that in 2010 Saltalamacchia was new to the Red Sox organization and Lester.

There is a notable difference between a catcher (Lavarnway) that's taken 3 years to gather 409.67 innings of experience (136.56 per season), and Salty who in the 3 years before he came to Boston has these innings caught in the Majors per season (1551 total and an average of 517):

2007: 372.67
2008: 464.33
2009: 714.00

In the minors, and before Salty also caught more games than Lavarnway.

In Salty's three years as the main Sox catcher, he's been paid $7.75M, in three years, Lavarnway has been paid under $1.5M.

In Salty's 3 full years here, he has earned: +5.3 rWAR to Lavarnway's -1.0 rWAR.

So by experience before MLB, in MLB, output in MLB, and salary these last 3 years anyone with common sense can see Lavarnway is no match for Salty as a catcher. Ipso facto.

Therefore to compare Lavarnway with Salty in order to raise Salty's reputation is the act of a desperate mind. The correct take from this is Salty should be compared to the other solid professionals he has played with: Tek, Ross, and Shoppach. When that is done, Salty looks just like the hack he is - vs. those three. In fact if Shoppach had not spit the bit, and forced his way out of Boston, Lavarnway would have had even less innings caught over these three seasons.

This is fun!

bagwell368
11-09-2013, 11:01 PM
Salty vs Experienced Catchers on BoSox 2011-2013:

Year Name ERA ERA+

2011 Tek 3.57 ~121
2011 Salty 4.62 ~093 That's -0.95 and -28 ERA+ for Salty

2012 Shop 3.77 ~113
2012 Salty 4.84 ~088 That's -1.07 ERA and -25 ERA+ for Salty

2013 Ross 2.89 ~140*
2013 Salty 3.84 ~108 That's -0.95 and -32 ERA+ for Salty

* Added in playoff stats. Did you guys know BTW that Ross's last 4 games were all 9 IP 1 ER in the playoffs?

Now Tek was clearly a crusty old Sox catcher, but Shoppach was in his first year (not counting his rookie cup of coffee in 2005) when Salty was here after a full year and a part year. Ross came here after Salty had two years plus a partial.

I've learned some things in the past few days. Lavarnway probably isn't going to get his chance here, and Salty is every bit as bad vs other savvy vet catchers as I and other say here, perhaps more so.

filihok
11-10-2013, 05:03 AM
[ample quality, yet unproductive, snark redacted]



Now, let's revisit the measures of catcher defense I posted earlier
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2013/08/29/fogging-the-measure-catcher-defense-ratings-august-29-2013/
Ross +2.4 runs, 13th overall, vs 852 batters
Saltalamacchia -1.4 runs, 77th overall, vs 3661 batters

And the 2012 rankings
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/10/04/fogging-the-measure-catcher-defense-ratings-final-2012-edition/
Shoppach +1 run, 28th overall, vs 1529 batters
Saltalamacchia -1.1 runs, 78th overall, vs 3704 batters

There are no measures for 2011

This measure agrees that both Ross and Shoppach were better defensive catchers than Saltalamacchia.



We're all in agreement that Saltalamacchia is a poor defensive catcher.

Now, if we can get away from this argumentativeness for the sake of being argumentative and focus on what got us here. The projection that I posted for Lester and the claim that

a LOT of [Lester's] bad games/numbers over the past few years are tied to Salty, which CD's formula is also not picking up.
Now, I'll go ahead and accept that part of Lester's poor performance is attributable to having a poor defensive catcher behind the plate. That sounds totally reasonable. What we, well-what I, want to know is how much?

Here's Lester's numbers over the past 3 seasons with
Saltalamacchia behind the plate: 1691 PA's, .263/.327/.417 4.23 ERA
All others behind the plate: 887 PA's, .238/.309/.375 3.66 ERA

There's a difference in performance, but I wouldn't say that it's a huge difference.
The difference in ERA is (4.23/3.66) 15%
The difference in OPS is ((4.17+3.27)/(3.75/3.09) 9%

So, is it fair to say that Lester has performed about 10-15 percent worse with Salty behind the plate as he has with other Red Sox catchers?



What does that mean for his projection? Well, I don't think it's fair to say that Lester is going to have 15% better results now that he's not pitching to Salty anymore. Lester has been 15% better pitching to guys like Ross, Shoppach and Varitek (about 75% of Lester's batters faced. And he actually performed pretty well with Lavarnway .234/.314/.371 3.90 in 230 PA) than he has to Salty, but, recall that Ross and Shoppach graded out as better than average defensive catchers.

I'd prefer the projections to be context neutral. That way we can more easily alter the projection as variable are added (what if the Sox bring Salty back? What if they make Ross Lester's personal catcher). So, we also need to try and remove the effect of Lester pitching to above average catchers. I don't exactly know how to do that, and at 2 AM not inclined to try to figure it out. Suppose we roughly split the difference. That'd make Lester throwing to Salty roughly 7.5% worse than if he threw to a league average pitcher.

I'm a bit bothered by simply using Salty's numbers with Lester as the basis for this. On the otherhand, the pitcher catcher dynamic is, for lack of a better word, intimate. A certain pitcher and catcher may work well together regardless of the catcher's overall defensive ability.

bagwell368
11-10-2013, 10:35 AM
[ample quality, yet unproductive, snark redacted]

You intimated I should be upset with RST, and I must have a bias since I'm not - even though you missed the issue completely. That doesn't rank as a reason for a pointed response? You seem to avail yourself of them at times.

Is this an attempt to try and obscure the impact of my last two posts on the thread? That would be a shame.


Ross +2.4 runs, 13th overall, vs 852 batters
Saltalamacchia -1.4 runs, 77th overall, vs 3661 batters

Shoppach +1 run, 28th overall, vs 1529 batters
Saltalamacchia -1.1 runs, 78th overall, vs 3704 batters

There are no measures for 2011

This measure agrees that both Ross and Shoppach were better defensive catchers than Saltalamacchia.

Clearly, yet there is an obvious damping factor involved. A net +3.4 vs a net -2.5 runs over two years of Salty vs two of his bettors doesn't come close to expressing the actual difference in Runs allowed. I submit the metrics you are using are flawed.

Plus your source did not include the playoffs in 2013 data:

Salty 3.84 ERA
Ross 2.89 ERA

which of course it can't, but 31 earned runs allowed in 78.1 innings for Salty and 12 allowed for Ross in 60 innings, is the difference between a WS banner and very likely not. 3.8 net runs difference in the metrics for 2013 that you use are unacceptable in that they don't pass any sort of common sense or smell test whatever.


We're all in agreement that Saltalamacchia is a poor defensive catcher.

Than why are your arguing that Salty got better in 2013, or that why doesn't Salty get credit for being new in 2010?


Now, if we can get away from this argumentativeness for the sake of being argumentative and focus on what got us here. The projection that I posted for Lester and the claim that

Why don't you study this Forum before and after your arrival and see if there is provable correlation on that front?


Now, I'll go ahead and accept that part of Lester's poor performance is attributable to having a poor defensive catcher behind the plate. That sounds totally reasonable. What we, well-what I, want to know is how much?

Why oh why would you assume your desire for the truth is superior to the other posters here? Why even mention it if it's such an article of faith for yourself? Oh, to be snarky. I get it. Snark for you, no snark for others?

Here's Lester's numbers over the past 3 seasons with
Saltalamacchia behind the plate: 1691 PA's, .263/.327/.417 4.23 ERA
All others behind the plate: 887 PA's, .238/.309/.375 3.66 ERA

There's a difference in performance, but I wouldn't say that it's a huge difference.
The difference in ERA is (4.23/3.66) 15%
The difference in OPS is ((4.17+3.27)/(3.75/3.09) 9%[/QUOTE]

Let's test that.

3.66 - 593 earned runs @ 162 games
4.23 - 685 earned runs @ 162 games

685 ER is what Toronto and LAA both got in 2013 (that's 12th/13th place)
593 ER is 4 ER behind what Texas got in 2013 (15 ER ahead of 5th place)

A .417 SLG would be good for 45-46th place among starting players in AL in 2013.
A .385 SLG fits at 63rd place in the AL in 2013

An OBP of .327 is 45th place (Alex Gordon)
An OBP of .309 is 61st place.

Well, it's not huge, but it's a good deal more than just a "difference".

Lavarnway is also included, and the numbers would be better for "vets other than Salty" if Lavarnway was not included.


So, is it fair to say that Lester has performed about 10-15 percent worse with Salty behind the plate as he has with other Red Sox catchers?

Less outs being made means more runs. Finishing close to 4th in runs vs a tie for 13th as a team is the difference between a playoff team and one that isn't (unless it has a top 3 offense, and even then it's not likely a team that wins a WS).


What does that mean for his projection? Well, I don't think it's fair to say that Lester is going to have 15% better results now that he's not pitching to Salty anymore.

Of course not, but with a catcher in line with the types he's had, he can have a 5-15% better performance over Salty replaced innings.


Lester has been 15% better pitching to guys like Ross, Shoppach and Varitek (about 75% of Lester's batters faced. And he actually performed pretty well with Lavarnway .234/.314/.371 3.90 in 230 PA) than he has to Salty, but, recall that Ross and Shoppach graded out as better than average defensive catchers.

I'd prefer the projections to be context neutral. That way we can more easily alter the projection as variable are added (what if the Sox bring Salty back? What if they make Ross Lester's personal catcher). So, we also need to try and remove the effect of Lester pitching to above average catchers. I don't exactly know how to do that, and at 2 AM not inclined to try to figure it out. Suppose we roughly split the difference. That'd make Lester throwing to Salty roughly 7.5% worse than if he threw to a league average pitcher.

I'm a bit bothered by simply using Salty's numbers with Lester as the basis for this. On the otherhand, the pitcher catcher dynamic is, for lack of a better word, intimate. A certain pitcher and catcher may work well together regardless of the catcher's overall defensive ability.

I think that's the advantage of pitchers on high budget teams. They get to work with really good catchers more than those of lower budget teams. I'm not sure you can tease out Lester from his team. I do imagine if he ended up in Seattle what he might lose could be made up pitching in that park vs Fenway.

There will never be a set of metrics that can give insight into a pitcher/catcher relationship. The best that can be hoped is that enough can be observed in results to give a good backwards rendering, and x-pitchers and catchers commenting (above the Joe Morgan level) on what's going on, what works, what doesn't. And of course who the Manager plays with whom.

filihok
11-10-2013, 11:54 AM
I submit the metrics you are using are flawed.

Plus your source did not include the playoffs in 2013 data:

Salty 3.84 ERA
Ross 2.89 ERA
I submit that merely looking at ERA is also flawed. No metric is likely to be unflawed, but hopefully the problems with ERA are apparent and obvious as to why it is more flawed than some others.

Let's return to the actual hitting stats of the batters with Lester on the mound. That will at least lessen the effect of random sequencing on the number of runs scored

Lester with Salty (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=.327&Slug0=.417&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.327&Slug1=.417&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.327&Slug2=.417&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.327&Slug3=.417&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.327&Slug4=.417&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.327&Slug5=.417&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.327&Slug6=.417&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.327&Slug7=.417&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.327&Slug8=.417&Model=0) 4.58 runs per game
Lester with all others (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=NON+SALTY&OBA0=+0.309&Slug0=.375&Player1=NON+SALTY&OBA1=.309&Slug1=.375&Player2=NON+SALTY&OBA2=.309&Slug2=.375&Player3=NON+SALTY&OBA3=.309&Slug3=.375&Player4=NON+SALTY&OBA4=.309&Slug4=.375&Player5=NON+SALTY&OBA5=.309&Slug5=.375&Player6=NON+SALTY&OBA6=.309&Slug6=.375&Player7=NON+SALTY&OBA7=.309&Slug7=.375&Player8=NON+SALTY&OBA8=.309&Slug8=.375&Model=0) 3.86 runs per game
*not including playoffs. If you wish to incorporate those numbers feel free to put them into the above tool. If you've looked them up feel free to post them in the thread so that I don't have to go through each game log to collect the data to add to the regular season data - no reason to do the work twice.
That's a difference of (4.58/3.86) 18%



there is an obvious damping factor involved. A 3.8 net runs difference in the metrics for 2013 that you use are unacceptable in that they don't pass any sort of common sense or smell test whatever.

A net +3.4 vs a net -2.5 runs over two years of Salty vs two of his bettors doesn't come close to expressing the actual difference in Runs allowed.
The numbers that I posted don't claim to be the entire measure of a catcher defense. What went into the measurement is clearly defined (stolen bases/caught stealing, wild pitches, passed balls). Things such as pitch framing and pitch calling are not included.


Than why are your arguing that Salty got better in 2013, or that why doesn't Salty get credit for being new in 2010?
I find this question to be problematic as it seems to miss the entire point of this discussion. I'm attempting to find out how much of an impact Saltalamacchia had/would have in the future on Jon Lester's performance. Improvement over time certainly is a thing to consider.


Why don't you study this Forum before and after your arrival and see if there is provable correlation on that front?
Stats 101: Correlation does not equal causation.


Why oh why would you assume your desire for the truth is superior to the other posters here?
I don't. I simply claim to only know my own motives. I in no way want to suggest that you are interested in finding out how much impact Saltalamacchia's defense had on Lester's performance if you are not.



Well, it's not huge, but it's a good deal more than just a "difference".

Lavarnway is also included, and the numbers would be better for "vets other than Salty" if Lavarnway was not included.
That's what I said, it's not huge. I'm simply attempting to quantify the difference.
Feel free to post the non-Lavarnway numbers.

The thing we are then running into is the willy-nilly removing of data. If we're trying to compare Lester's performance with Salty to Lester's performance with an average catcher (and that is what I'm trying to do) then we can't only look at Lester's performance with better than average catchers - which Ross and Shoppach are according to the metric that I posted.


Less outs being made means more runs.
How many less outs and how many more runs is exactly what I'm trying to find out




Of course not, but with a catcher in line with the types he's had, he can have a 5-15% better performance over Salty replaced innings.
Again, this is what I'm attempting to find out and 5-15% seems to be in the ballpark.




There will never be a set of metrics that can give insight into a pitcher/catcher relationship
I disagree, I think he have gained insight into the Lester/Saltalamacchia relationship in that Lester and Saltalamacchia together give up 5-15% more runs than Lester and an average catcher


The best that can be hoped is that enough can be observed in results to give a good backwards rendering, and x-pitchers and catchers commenting (above the Joe Morgan level) on what's going on, what works, what doesn't. And of course who the Manager plays with whom.
Mostly agreed.

bagwell368
11-10-2013, 07:41 PM
I submit that merely looking at ERA is also flawed. No metric is likely to be unflawed, but hopefully the problems with ERA are apparent and obvious as to why it is more flawed than some others.

Yes.


Lester with Salty (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=.327&Slug0=.417&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.327&Slug1=.417&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.327&Slug2=.417&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.327&Slug3=.417&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.327&Slug4=.417&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.327&Slug5=.417&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.327&Slug6=.417&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.327&Slug7=.417&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.327&Slug8=.417&Model=0) 4.58 runs per game
Lester with all others (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=NON+SALTY&OBA0=+0.309&Slug0=.375&Player1=NON+SALTY&OBA1=.309&Slug1=.375&Player2=NON+SALTY&OBA2=.309&Slug2=.375&Player3=NON+SALTY&OBA3=.309&Slug3=.375&Player4=NON+SALTY&OBA4=.309&Slug4=.375&Player5=NON+SALTY&OBA5=.309&Slug5=.375&Player6=NON+SALTY&OBA6=.309&Slug6=.375&Player7=NON+SALTY&OBA7=.309&Slug7=.375&Player8=NON+SALTY&OBA8=.309&Slug8=.375&Model=0) 3.86 runs per game
*not including playoffs. If you wish to incorporate those numbers feel free to put them into the above tool. If you've looked them up feel free to post them in the thread so that I don't have to go through each game log to collect the data to add to the regular season data - no reason to do the work twice.
That's a difference of (4.58/3.86) 18%

I have the ER and IP of Salty and Ross in the playoffs, not the BA/OBP/SLG:

Salty: IP: 78.1 ER: 31 ERA: 3.84
Ross: IP: 60 ER: 12 ERA: 2.89


The numbers that I posted don't claim to be the entire measure of a catcher defense. What went into the measurement is clearly defined (stolen bases/caught stealing, wild pitches, passed balls). Things such as pitch framing and pitch calling are not included.

The ratio between the numbers seem right, but yes the totals seemed to be damped.


I find this question to be problematic as it seems to miss the entire point of this discussion. I'm attempting to find out how much of an impact Saltalamacchia had/would have in the future on Jon Lester's performance. Improvement over time certainly is a thing to consider.

Well part of Salty's performance is tied to comparisons of whom he works with. Perhaps next year he'd do better than he did this year, perhaps because Ross would be declining. But in that case it's a relative change and not an absolute one.


Stats 101: Correlation does not equal causation.

But if the correlation is sufficient, in particular over a period of time, then you come to a conclusion that he's not that good, something I believe you wrote 2-3 posts back.


I don't. I simply claim to only know my own motives. I in no way want to suggest that you are interested in finding out how much impact Saltalamacchia's defense had on Lester's performance if you are not.

But why bring it up? Do you think we think your motivation is sinister? Why not let the effort (which is considerable on the part of at least 3 people in this thread) speak for itself?


Feel free to post the non-Lavarnway numbers.

Maybe later, I'm swamped.


If we're trying to compare Lester's performance with Salty to Lester's performance with an average catcher (and that is what I'm trying to do) then we can't only look at Lester's performance with better than average catchers - which Ross and Shoppach are according to the metric that I posted.

I suggest Tek was better than average, in 2011, but your stat did exist, right? BR says Tek -1 and Salty -6 'RField'. The ERA numbers certainly suggest Tek was above average. What about those?


How many less outs and how many more runs is exactly what I'm trying to find out

Carry on.

RedSoxtober
11-11-2013, 12:00 PM
Is it?
There's a number of flaws. It appears that you believe you are very good at, or enjoy, pointing out the flaws in statistics so I'll leave it to you to point out the flaws in this one.
I'll list one to get you started.
In 2013 of any Red Sox pitcher who pitched over 70 innnigs, Uehara had the lowest ERA and Dempster had the highest.
Salty caught 72% of Uehara's innings (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ueharko01&year=2013&t=p#catch) and only 60% of Dempster's (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=dempsry01&year=2013&t=p#catch).

Catching a higher percentage of a dominant relievers innings than those of a so-so starter is going to lower a catchers' ERA against.

I'm sure you can think of even more reasons that a catcher's ERA against is a flawed metric for measuring catcher performance.
Since the earlier part has been dealt with I'll respond only to this. It's pretty simple: you didn't read what I wrote very carefully or didn't follow it very well.

What I said was that we should compare what individual pitchers did with multiple catchers. That means comparing what Lester did with different catchers in 2013, then in 2012, 2011, etc. By doing that the pitcher becomes the constant and the variable is the catcher. Obviously you exactly reproduce the experiment (same pitcher, same opponent, same game conditions, etc) but that's why I said that it was "as close to the perfect experiment" as possible.

Your post simply lumped all the innings together from all the pitchers but it's not what I suggested.

Instead you should look at Uehara against Lavarnway, Ross, and Salty.

Lavarnway 1.29ERA, .167/.167/.333, 7/0 k/bb (7.0)
Ross 1.32ERA, .130/.149/.283, 23/1 k/bb (13.2)
Salty 1.01ERA, .126/.166/.213, 71/8 k/bb (53.2)

Salty has a slight advantage in ERA. The numbers are so close that I'd go looking in other areas. Ross a bit better keeping guys off the bases. The biggest differentiator among the three seems to be k/bb. That might reflect both pitch calling and pitch framing.

What about Dempster? Clear advantage in ERA and OPS against with Ross over Salty (3.00 vs 4.62, .711 vs .750). Lavarnway was again the weakest of the bunch in limited innings.

filihok
11-13-2013, 01:45 AM
I have the ER and IP of Salty and Ross in the playoffs, not the BA/OBP/SLG:

Salty: IP: 78.1 ER: 31 ERA: 3.84
Ross: IP: 60 ER: 12 ERA: 2.89
I need the trip-slash line for both catchers with Lester to do the same comparison.


Well part of Salty's performance is tied to comparisons of whom he works with. Perhaps next year he'd do better than he did this year, perhaps because Ross would be declining. But in that case it's a relative change and not an absolute one.
Which is why it's better to get an absolute one, which is what the links to the measures that I posted were.


But why bring it up? Do you think we think your motivation is sinister? Why not let the effort (which is considerable on the part of at least 3 people in this thread) speak for itself?
With the amount of talking past each other that appears to be going on I thought it was a good idea to state, explicitly, what I was trying to do.



I suggest Tek was better than average, in 2011, but your stat did exist, right? BR says Tek -1 and Salty -6 'RField'. The ERA numbers certainly suggest Tek was above average. What about those?
It's not my stat, it's Matt Klaasen's. I'm not aware of it existing prior to 2012.





Since the earlier part has been dealt with I'll respond only to this. It's pretty simple: you didn't read what I wrote very carefully or didn't follow it very well.

What I said was that we should compare what individual pitchers did with multiple catchers. That means comparing what Lester did with different catchers in 2013, then in 2012, 2011, etc. By doing that the pitcher becomes the constant and the variable is the catcher. Obviously you exactly reproduce the experiment (same pitcher, same opponent, same game conditions, etc) but that's why I said that it was "as close to the perfect experiment" as possible.
Then, yes, I misunderstood.
And feel free to gather that data.

I'm not sure exactly what you hope to find, though. I imagine we'll see that some pitcher/catcher combinations work better together than others. There'll also be huge sample size issues - those Uehara numbers are already like 30 plate appearances.

The data taken from that number of PA's, it just isn't meaningful
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-samples-become-reliable/

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 09:35 AM
2013 playoff catcher offense:


Name PA AB BB H 2B 3B HR BA OBP SLG

Salt 326 298 28 73 13 02 04 .244 .310 .362

Ross 243 229 14 44 07 00 02 .192 .239 .249

I'd say that correlates with ERA pretty well, Ross's SLG is in particular very impressive vs Salty, with the OBP close behind.

Ross's XBH% is .616 of Salty and .771 of JS's OBP.

filihok
11-13-2013, 10:38 AM
2013 playoff catcher offense:


Name PA AB BB H 2B 3B HR BA OBP SLG

Salt 326 298 28 73 13 02 04 .244 .310 .362

Ross 243 229 14 44 07 00 02 .192 .239 .249

I'd say that correlates with ERA pretty well, Ross's SLG is in particular very impressive vs Salty, with the OBP close behind.

Ross's XBH% is .616 of Salty and .771 of JS's OBP.
I was actually hoping for the playoff stats for Lester with each catcher since this thread is about Lester, but since I have these

Using the lineup analysis tool at Baseball Musings, Ross' combined (regular and post season) OBP/SLG (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=ROSS&OBA0=+0.294&Slug0=.348&Player1=ROSS&OBA1=.294&Slug1=.348&Player2=ROSS&OBA2=.294&Slug2=.348&Player3=ROSS&OBA3=.294&Slug3=.348&Player4=ROSS&OBA4=.294&Slug4=.348&Player5=ROSS&OBA5=.294&Slug5=.348&Player6=ROSS&OBA6=.294&Slug6=.348&Player7=ROSS&OBA7=.294&Slug7=.348&Player8=ROSS&OBA8=.294&Slug8=.348&Model=1) works out to 3.38 runs per game

Saltalamacchia's (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=.313&Slug0=.396&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.313&Slug1=.396&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.313&Slug2=.396&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.313&Slug3=.396&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.313&Slug4=.396&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.313&Slug5=.396&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.313&Slug6=.396&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.313&Slug7=.396&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.313&Slug8=.396&Model=1) to 4.16 runs per game

That's a (4.16/3.38) 23% increase with Saltalamacchia on the mound. Which is in the general area of what else we've found.

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 11:57 AM
Oops, I messed up Ross's totals:

Ross 243 229 14 51 07 00 02 .228 .267 .279

So the delta is about 15%.


Just Lester:

58 54 04 09 00 00 02 .167/.224/.278
55 54 01 09 01 00 01 .167/.182/.241

Not much change due from that...

Bo Sox Fan
11-13-2013, 12:22 PM
To make a long story short,

Jarrod Saltalamacchia GONE + John Farrell as Red Sox manager for the near/distant future = a productive Jon Lester going forward, worthy of an extension.

Get it done.

filihok
11-13-2013, 12:35 PM
Oops, I messed up Ross's totals:

Ross 243 229 14 51 07 00 02 .228 .267 .279

So the delta is about 15%.
For any body following along at home that make
Ross (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=ROSS&OBA0=+0.299&Slug0=.353&Player1=ROSS&OBA1=.299&Slug1=.353&Player2=ROSS&OBA2=.299&Slug2=.353&Player3=ROSS&OBA3=.299&Slug3=.353&Player4=ROSS&OBA4=.299&Slug4=.353&Player5=ROSS&OBA5=.299&Slug5=.353&Player6=ROSS&OBA6=.299&Slug6=.353&Player7=ROSS&OBA7=.299&Slug7=.353&Player8=ROSS&OBA8=.299&Slug8=.353&Model=1) 3.51 Runs per game
Salty (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=.313&Slug0=.396&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.313&Slug1=.396&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.313&Slug2=.396&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.313&Slug3=.396&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.313&Slug4=.396&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.313&Slug5=.396&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.313&Slug6=.396&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.313&Slug7=.396&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.313&Slug8=.396&Model=1) 4.16 runs per game



Just Lester:

58 54 04 09 00 00 02 .167/.224/.278
55 54 01 09 01 00 01 .167/.182/.241

Not much change due from that...
Is Ross top or bottom?

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 01:06 PM
I want Lester here, an extension of 5/110 after 2014 is about the least it will cost.

He's got an excellent shot at being the best LHP in Sox history, and an outside shot at the HOF. Let it be here.

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 01:07 PM
For any body following along at home that make
Ross (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=ROSS&OBA0=+0.299&Slug0=.353&Player1=ROSS&OBA1=.299&Slug1=.353&Player2=ROSS&OBA2=.299&Slug2=.353&Player3=ROSS&OBA3=.299&Slug3=.353&Player4=ROSS&OBA4=.299&Slug4=.353&Player5=ROSS&OBA5=.299&Slug5=.353&Player6=ROSS&OBA6=.299&Slug6=.353&Player7=ROSS&OBA7=.299&Slug7=.353&Player8=ROSS&OBA8=.299&Slug8=.353&Model=1) 3.51 Runs per game
Salty (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=.313&Slug0=.396&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.313&Slug1=.396&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.313&Slug2=.396&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.313&Slug3=.396&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.313&Slug4=.396&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.313&Slug5=.396&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.313&Slug6=.396&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.313&Slug7=.396&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.313&Slug8=.396&Model=1) 4.16 runs per game



Is Ross top or bottom?

Ouch, pardon Salty on top, Ross on bottom

filihok
11-13-2013, 01:25 PM
For any body following along at home that makes
Ross (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=ROSS&OBA0=+0.299&Slug0=.353&Player1=ROSS&OBA1=.299&Slug1=.353&Player2=ROSS&OBA2=.299&Slug2=.353&Player3=ROSS&OBA3=.299&Slug3=.353&Player4=ROSS&OBA4=.299&Slug4=.353&Player5=ROSS&OBA5=.299&Slug5=.353&Player6=ROSS&OBA6=.299&Slug6=.353&Player7=ROSS&OBA7=.299&Slug7=.353&Player8=ROSS&OBA8=.299&Slug8=.353&Model=1) 3.51 Runs per game
Salty (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=.313&Slug0=.396&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.313&Slug1=.396&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.313&Slug2=.396&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.313&Slug3=.396&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.313&Slug4=.396&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.313&Slug5=.396&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.313&Slug6=.396&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.313&Slug7=.396&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.313&Slug8=.396&Model=1) 4.16 runs per game
And just Lester in 2013
Ross (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=ROSS&OBA0=.323&Slug0=.393&Player1=ROSS&OBA1=.323&Slug1=.393&Player2=ROSS&OBA2=.323&Slug2=.393&Player3=ROSS&OBA3=.323&Slug3=.393&Player4=ROSS&OBA4=.323&Slug4=.393&Player5=ROSS&OBA5=.323&Slug5=.393&Player6=ROSS&OBA6=.323&Slug6=.393&Player7=ROSS&OBA7=.323&Slug7=.393&Player8=ROSS&OBA8=.323&Slug8=.393&Model=1) 4.31 runs per game
Salty (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=SALTY&OBA0=+0.290&Slug0=.367&Player1=SALTY&OBA1=.290&Slug1=.367&Player2=SALTY&OBA2=.290&Slug2=.367&Player3=SALTY&OBA3=.290&Slug3=.367&Player4=SALTY&OBA4=.29&Slug4=.367&Player5=SALTY&OBA5=.290&Slug5=.367&Player6=SALTY&OBA6=.290&Slug6=.367&Player7=SALTY&OBA7=.290&Slug7=.367&Player8=SALTY&OBA8=.290&Slug8=.367&Model=1) 3.49 runs per game



http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=lestejo01&year=2013&t=p#catch



Just Lester:

58 54 04 09 00 00 02 .167/.224/.278
55 54 01 09 01 00 01 .167/.182/.241

Ouch, pardon Salty on top, Ross on bottom

Note Lester's season ERA with
Salty: 3.58
Ross: 4.11
*not including playoffs which would, I assume, narrow the gap


Almost forgot to make some kind of conclusion:
So, what can we conclude?
Ross is probably a better defensive catcher than Saltalamacchia - probably on the order of allowing around 15% fewer runs.
Despite that, Jon Lester actually had better results with Saltalamacchia behind the plater in 2013 than he did with Ross.

RedSoxtober
11-13-2013, 04:45 PM
Bags -- life is MUCH better with filihok on your ignore list.

bagwell368
11-13-2013, 05:12 PM
Bags -- life is MUCH better with filihok on your ignore list.

Well... he's a bit of a pain in the neck, but, he's got good ideas, and even when he's too far off in one direction, can be brought back down to earth. I can think of a long time regular here that fits that description.

Also, I'm liable to be more scarce in the near future anyhow...

rollins94
11-20-2013, 03:12 PM
I want Lester here, an extension of 5/110 after 2014 is about the least it will cost.

He's got an excellent shot at being the best LHP in Sox history, and an outside shot at the HOF. Let it be here.

I could easily see the argument for him being the best LHP in sox history due to the duration of his effectiveness overwhelming so called superior "peak years" of others.

As for the HOF, that argument would have to pretty persuasive. Lifetime 3.7 era pitchers generally shouldnt see the light of day in the hall of fame. There are others with better stats who faced real resistance getting in ( Blyleven comes to mind). The rings and his story help, but unless he really picks it up the next five years or so I dont see it.

Edit: HOF quibbles aside, still probably a good idea to re-up him if money is right. 22/yr seems a high AAV IMO

bagwell368
11-21-2013, 07:45 AM
I could easily see the argument for him being the best LHP in sox history due to the duration of his effectiveness overwhelming so called superior "peak years" of others.

As for the HOF, that argument would have to pretty persuasive. Lifetime 3.7 era pitchers generally shouldnt see the light of day in the hall of fame. There are others with better stats who faced real resistance getting in ( Blyleven comes to mind). The rings and his story help, but unless he really picks it up the next five years or so I dont see it.

Edit: HOF quibbles aside, still probably a good idea to re-up him if money is right. 22/yr seems a high AAV IMO

That's why I said outside shot. He needs 5 years like his top 3 to get into range, after that a two meh years with decent W-L records, and viola - a 220 game winner with a killer W-L%, , with a 117 ERA+ or better, WS hero, and big C survivor.

$22M AAV is high when a moderate talent such as Ruiz scores a 3/26 deal, or old man Hudson? We'll see. He'll probably sign an extension not in the open market so that will be lower in that case, but open market that's the floor IMO.