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View Full Version : The Team That Wins Game 3 Of The Finals (2-3-2 Format) Wins 92.3 Percent Of The Time



amos1er
06-12-2013, 01:29 AM
Thoughs...

raiderposting
06-12-2013, 01:34 AM
I personally think all these percentages aren't that important, every series is different. Some are just decided by a few points. But yeah, the *** whooping today was unexpected

stawka
06-12-2013, 01:35 AM
Thanks Captain Obvious

Aust
06-12-2013, 01:36 AM
History is not on the Heat's side. Bosh and Wade better get their act together

Clippersfan86
06-12-2013, 01:37 AM
I saw this other day. It's out of like 12 finals series right? Pretty damn telling. If Spurs go up 3-1 it's def over.

amos1er
06-12-2013, 01:40 AM
For the record, I don't think it's a for sure thing. Sample size is only 12 and every series is different. Now, if it were a sample size of like 25 or something, I might think that the Heat are ****ed.

shep33
06-12-2013, 01:42 AM
double post

shep33
06-12-2013, 01:43 AM
I don't think this is a big deal. People are overlooking the significance of Parker's injury, who is the best player on the Spurs' team. If he ain't right the rest of the way, the advantage goes to Miami.

Aust
06-12-2013, 01:44 AM
I don't think this is a big deal. People are overlooking the significance of Parker's injury, who is the best player on the Spurs' team. If he ain't right the rest of the way, the advantage goes to Miami.

Yeah, hope it's nothing too serious. I'd like to see this series go 7 with both teams as healthy as possible.

amos1er
06-12-2013, 01:44 AM
I don't think this is a big deal. People are overlooking the significance of Parker's injury, who is the best player on the opposing team. If he ain't right the rest of the way, the advantage goes to Miami.

I just read about his injury. In his interview, he said that it only cramped up on him. He came back to the game in the fourth and was able to play after he went to the locker room. Besides, if Parkers injury did keep him out and the Heat won, there would be a giant asterisk on this title even bigger than last years lockout season title.

shep33
06-12-2013, 01:47 AM
Yeah, hope it's nothing too serious. I'd like to see this series go 7 with both teams as healthy as possible.

Yeah, my head picked the Heat in 7 (I think), but I just love Pop so much that I hope they win.

shep33
06-12-2013, 01:48 AM
I just read about his injury. In his interview, he said that it only cramped up on him. He came back to the game in the fourth and was able to play after he went to the locker room. Besides, if Parkers injury did keep him out and the Heat won, there would be a giant asterisk on this title even bigger than last years lockout season title.

Yeah he feels like its a cramp, but who knows, we'll find out more tomorrow with the MRI

bholly
06-12-2013, 02:15 AM
How is it 92.3% of 12?
11/12 would be 91.7%, and 10/12 would be 100%. Pretty sure it isn't out of 12, if it's just based on past frequencies.


Really, I don't think it means a whole lot either way. If the Heat win the next game they're favourites again - unless you put them at less than a 16% chance to win the next game, that means they're more than 8% to win the series.
Point is - as others are saying - a sample size like that doesn't really give any sort of meaningful approximation to their odds.

HesterJordan23
06-12-2013, 02:44 AM
I believe whoever wins game 4 wins the series

Iron24th
06-12-2013, 03:29 AM
Great for my prediction (Spurs in 6).
I remember miami won game 3 and was up 2-1 in the 2011 finals but still lost the series.
Whatever I still think SA is the better team.

jerellh528
06-12-2013, 03:34 AM
I don't think this is a big deal. People are overlooking the significance of Parker's injury, who is the best player on the Spurs' team. If he ain't right the rest of the way, the advantage goes to Miami.

I hope heat doesn't get gift wrapped another ring with Parker's injury. Heat have been pretty lucky with their roads to finals with other teams players being hurt.

License2Lillard
06-12-2013, 03:54 AM
I think who ever wins four games first will win the series. Can someone give me stats on that?

stawka
06-12-2013, 04:54 AM
The winner of game 4 will win the series... Yeah, I said it!

amos1er
06-12-2013, 05:04 AM
The winner of game 4 will win the series... Yeah, I said it!

Well, thats not such a bold statement in regards to the Spurs considering they would be up 3-1 and no one has ever come back down 3-1 in finals history. In regards to the Heat, something tells me it's more like wishful thinking on your part.

stawka
06-12-2013, 05:30 AM
How? If Heat win, they have HCA again and would be a 3 game series with 2 in Miami

amos1er
06-12-2013, 05:40 AM
How? If Heat win, they have HCA again and would be a 3 game series with 2 in Miami

Thats a nice positive outlook. I can respect that.

Even if the Spurs end up losing one at home, they go back to Miami up 3-2 either way. Miami will then have to win two in a row which is something they weren't able to do against the Pacers who couldn't even win 50 games during the regular season in the east.

stawka
06-12-2013, 06:36 AM
This is where the whole "take it one day (game) at a time" comes into it. If Miami win the next game, it's 2-2. All that is history because moving forward, it'll be a 3 game series with Miami holding HCA

That's the way I see it anyway, I'm sure many others will disagree, and I can see where you're coming from, especially with the 2 in a row argument, but that's just my humble opinion.

kobe4thewinbang
06-12-2013, 06:42 AM
I believe whoever wins game 4 wins the seriesYeah, because Miami is NOT beating San Antonio 3 times in a row. Win game 4 or bust for Miami.

kobe4thewinbang
06-12-2013, 06:43 AM
Thats a nice positive outlook. I can respect that.

Even if the Spurs end up losing one at home, they go back to Miami up 3-2 either way. Miami will then have to win two in a row which is something they weren't able to do against the Pacers who couldn't even win 50 games during the regular season in the east.I could see Miami winning 2 in a row, but not 3. That's why SA must win Game 4, and vice versa.

archdevil84
06-12-2013, 06:51 AM
either way, game 4 is gonne be HUGE

Hangtime
06-12-2013, 06:52 AM
Miami wins game 4. SA wins game 5. Thats' how I see it. Don't believe Neal/Green will go off behind the 3 like that in game 4. SA goes back to Miami with a 3-2 series lead.

bholly
06-12-2013, 07:59 AM
I did some counting. There have been 28 2-3-2 format finals, 1985-2012.

The team that wins game 3 has gone 17-11 in the series (ie has won the series 60.7% of the time).

When the home team wins game 3 they've gone 5-8 in the series (38.5%).

When the home team wins game 3 to go 2-1 up they've gone 3-1 in the series (75%).


Looks like there's some stats supporting either team. Even with the small sample sizes.

No idea where the stat in the OP comes from.

bucketss
06-12-2013, 08:16 AM
I just read about his injury. In his interview, he said that it only cramped up on him. He came back to the game in the fourth and was able to play after he went to the locker room. Besides, if Parkers injury did keep him out and the Heat won, there would be a giant asterisk on this title even bigger than last years lockout season title.

but theres no asterik when orlando magic all star pg was just coming back injury and wasn't himself, or when kendrick perkins got injured in game6?

BALLER R
06-12-2013, 08:18 AM
If spurs go up 3-1 this series is done in 5.

Aapox
06-12-2013, 09:05 AM
How is it 92.3% of 12?
11/12 would be 91.7%, and 10/12 would be 100%. Pretty sure it isn't out of 12, if it's just based on past frequencies.


Really, I don't think it means a whole lot either way. If the Heat win the next game they're favourites again - unless you put them at less than a 16% chance to win the next game, that means they're more than 8% to win the series.
Point is - as others are saying - a sample size like that doesn't really give any sort of meaningful approximation to their odds.

12/13 I think.

JoeBlessU
06-12-2013, 09:25 AM
So your saying theres a chance...

Slug3
06-12-2013, 09:32 AM
I don't think this is a big deal. People are overlooking the significance of Parker's injury, who is the best player on the Spurs' team. If he ain't right the rest of the way, the advantage goes to Miami.

Parker has been below average pretty much this series and SA has been fine.

Knick_Fever
06-12-2013, 09:54 AM
So your saying theres a chance...

lol

D-Leethal
06-12-2013, 10:11 AM
Who to bet on game 4? Miami bounce back or Lebron quits and Spurs taking this in 5? 3 for 3 in games 1-2-3 so far. Miami on the road with backs against the wall is tougher to gauge than Miami at home with back against the walls. This is not a shell-of-itself Celtics team playing Marquis Daniels, Greg Stiemsma, and Keyon Dooling heavy rotation minutes.

Labgrownmangoat
06-12-2013, 10:37 AM
I believe whoever wins game 4 wins the series

I think you got the word order wrong. It should be: I believe whoever wins 4 games wins the series. . .

JiffyMix88
06-12-2013, 10:42 AM
Well looks like it might rise after this series

zn23
06-12-2013, 02:27 PM
If Parker is injured, this will not matter.

bholly
06-12-2013, 07:14 PM
12/13 I think.

Yeah, that works. Thanks.




The vital part that the OP missed out is that 12-1 is only for teams that go up 2-1 AFTER BEING TIED 1-1.
That's why the sample size is 13 despite their being 28 Game 3s under the 2-3-2 format.

Overall, teams that win G3 are 18-10, or 64.3%.

ChitownBears22
06-12-2013, 07:20 PM
Not an attack on the Spurs.

But how many of the 12/13 teams had a player of TP's caliber sustain an injury that will hinder his playing ability?

Not saying anything in terms of this series. Just wondering if there is a case where this has happened and what was the outcome.

Krizzle88
06-12-2013, 07:23 PM
If Parker is injured, this will not matter.

You mean if Spurs keep draining 3's it wont matter

sunnyice
06-12-2013, 07:32 PM
I just read about his injury. In his interview, he said that it only cramped up on him. He came back to the game in the fourth and was able to play after he went to the locker room. Besides, if Parkers injury did keep him out and the Heat won, there would be a giant asterisk on this title even bigger than last years lockout season title.

Your bias is showing heavily again. So kobe also has an asterisk when Perkins got injured? Already making excuses in case Miami wins?

JordansBulls
06-12-2013, 07:34 PM
If Spurs get game 4, everyone on that squad on going to come out for the kill for game 5 treating it as there game 7.

Hawkeye15
06-12-2013, 07:36 PM
If Parker is injured, this will not matter.

unless Gary Neal morphs into Mark Price again

Krizzle88
06-12-2013, 07:37 PM
unless Gary Neal morphs into Mark Price again

Exactly my *****

Krizzle88
06-12-2013, 07:39 PM
If Spurs get game 4, everyone on that squad on going to come out for the kill for game 5 treating it as there game 7.

If Spurs win game 4 its over in 5

lakerskbp24
06-12-2013, 07:48 PM
Not to be a smart ***, but it's not a 100%. So the Heat can still win the series. It's far from over.

ChitownBears22
06-12-2013, 07:52 PM
Not to be a smart ***, but it's not a 100%. So the Heat can still win the series. It's far from over.

smartass. I win

bholly
06-12-2013, 07:58 PM
Throughout this post, 'favourite' means the team who started the series with HCA (so Miami in 2013) and 'non-favourite' is the other team. I don't change 'favourite' / 'non-favourite' depending on where they're playing in each game, because that would be too confusing.
I realize the team with HCA isn't automatically the favourite, but it's just the easiest word to use.

Unless otherwise noted, the sample is all completed finals with a 2-3-2 format - ie all finals from 1985 to 2012.
Percentages are for winning the series, decimals are for winning games.

Most importantly: if you treat percentages like probabilities you're being willfully ignorant and misleading. The sample size on all of this is wayyyy to small for any sort of accuracy in predicting percentages.



Overall Finals Stats

Favourites are 20-8 in series (71%).

Favourites are 92-65 (.586) in games.
Home teams are 96-61 (.611) in games.

Favourites are 54-23 (.701) at home.
Non-Favourites are 42-38 (.525) at home.



Individual Finals Games

Favourites are 22-6 (.786) in G1.
Favourites are 17-11 (.607) in G2.
Favourites are 14-14 (.500) in G3.
Favourites are 13-15 (.464) in G4.
Favourites are 11-13 (.458) in G5.
Favourites are 11-6 (.647) in G6.
Favourites are 4-0 (1.000) in G7.

In all finals series (not just 2-3-2), favourites are 14-3 (.824) in G7. Losses in 1969, 1974, 1978.
In all playoff series (not just 2-3-2), favourites are 90-23 (.796) in G7.


Game 6+7 Stats

G6 winners are 3-1 (.750) in G7.
Favourites who win G6 are 3-0 (1.000) in G7.
Non-favourites who win G6 are 0-1 (.000) in G7.

Favourites who go into G6 down 2-3 are 3-4 (.429) in G6 and 3-4 in series (43%).
Favourites who go into G6 up 3-2 are 8-1 (.889) in G6 and 9-0 in series (100%).


Lead Stats

Teams who go up 2-1 are 21-2 in series (91%).
Non-favourites who go up 2-1 are 5-0 in series (100%).

Teams who go up 3-1 are 14-0 in series (100%) - ended 7x in G5 and 7x in G6.
Non-favourites who go up 3-1 are 4-0 in series (100%) - ended 2x in G5 and 2x in G6.
[So a 3-1 or 1-3 series has never gone 7 games.]

When tied 2-2, favourites are 7-3 in series (70%).
When tied 3-3, favourites are 4-0 in series (100%).
[Series tied 2-2 have gone to 7 games 4 times out of 10]


Game 3 Winner Stats

Game 3 winners are 18-10 in series (64%). - [correct version of stat from OP]
Game 3 winners who go up 2-1 are 12-1 in series (92%). - [actual stat from the OP]

Non-favourites who win Game 3 are 6-8 in series (43%).
Non-favourites who win Game 3 to go up 2-1 are 4-0 in series (100%).

G3 winners are 13-15 (.464) in G4.
Non-favourite G3 winners are 7-7 (.500) in G4.



Game 4 Winner Stats

Game 4 winners are 19-9 in series (68%).

Favourites who win Game 4 are 12-1 in series (92%).
Favourites who win Game 4 to tie 2-2 are 0-1 in series (0%).

Non-favourites who win Game 4 are 7-8 in series (47%).
Non-favourites who win Game 4 to go up 3-1 are 4-0 in series (100%).

G4 winners are 13-15 (.464) in G5.
Favourite G4 winners are 5-8 (.385) in G5.
Non-favourite G4 winners are 8-7 (.533) in G5.

jam
06-12-2013, 09:45 PM
The team that wins 4 games first has a 100% probability of winning the series.

zn23
06-12-2013, 10:06 PM
The team that wins 4 games first has a 100% probability of winning the series.

Thanks Hubie Brown

bholly
06-12-2013, 10:09 PM
Thanks License2Lillard (post #17)

fyp